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2015-16 Golden State Warriors Season Preview

Basketball Insiders previews the Golden State Warriors’ 2015-16 season.

Basketball Insiders

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The Golden State Warriors won their first title in 40 years last season. Anything but a repeat is a step back but, fortunately for the Warriors, they still have the same core and a real chance to stay on top of the NBA. En route to 67 wins, Golden State was healthy for most of the year in 2014-15. If they can avoid the injury bug, back-to-back titles could be their fate.

Five Thoughts

I never thought in a million years that the Warriors would be entering the 2015-16 season as the defending NBA champions, but here we are. To be honest with you, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Warriors end up going down in history like the 2011 Mavericks—a team for which everything broke right. The difference between the 2011 Mavs and the Warriors, however, is youth, upside and retention. The Warriors are young, and most importantly, they re-signed Draymond Green. There is absolutely no reason why they shouldn’t pick up right where they left off last year. The major concerns, from my perspective, are that the Spurs and Clippers each seem to have improved immensely. Still, being built around the best statistical shooter in the history of the game, the Warriors get my respect as the defending champions, so I am certainly taking them to win the Pacific Division. David Lee is certainly a basketball talent, but his loss won’t have a huge impact, in my opinion. He paid dividends for the Warriors in the Finals, and losing him make them even smaller, but the newly acquired Jason Thompson and the progression of Festus Ezeli should make up for that. I like the Warriors and respect them but I don’t know how far they will go this year and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see their bid for a repeat fall short.

1st Place — Pacific Division

-Moke Hamilton

The targets are on their backs. Opponents will take their games to the next level. Their matchups will be used as measuring sticks. These are the realities facing the Warriors after winning the NBA Championship last season. Don’t expect them to mind the pressures. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are three of the top young talents in the NBA while Andre Iguodala is back as the team’s veteran leader. The Warriors’ adjustments during the NBA Finals highlighted the depth of the team. They now know how to construct the roster to counter varying opponents and their systems. In addition to the experience of the players, Steve Kerr has been battle tested as a head coach which gives the team an edge for years to come. As long as the Warriors stay healthy throughout the season, they should once again dominate the West and strongly compete for another title.

1st Place — Pacific Division

-Jessica Camerato

The defending champions head into training camp looking to silence those doubting how long they can remain top dogs. Make no mistake, the Warriors are a great team but a championship repeat would put the stamp on their greatness. Reigning MVP Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are arguably the best backcourt in the league and the team possesses strong depth at every position. Anything less than defending their crown in the Finals next June should be viewed as a disappointment.

1st Place — Pacific Division

-Lang Greene

The Warriors were historically good last year, and they’re bringing everybody back healthy next season. Assuming that health holds for the full campaign, what possible reason could anybody have for not picking them as the repeat NBA champions? Stephen Curry is the greatest shooter of his generation (and probably ever), and all the other players around him are great in their own roles, from Draymond Green’s “D” to Klay Thompson’s “3’s.” This team is deep, well-coached, unbelievably talented and elite on both ends of the court. That’s a tough team to beat, just as it was a year ago.

1st Place — Pacific Division

-Joel Brigham

Winning back-to-back titles in the NBA is extremely tough. However, I believe the Warriors have a legitimate chance to repeat this season. As I wrote in a recent article on the topic, this was a historically great team last year and they brought just about every key player back. They seem poised to keep improving given their age and increased familiarity with each other and the fact that head coach Steve Kerr is in his second year. Oh, and they’re still incredibly hungry and, quite frankly, pissed off that they’ve been doubted and overlooked (as Draymond Green admitted in our recent Q&A). People haven’t talked about the Warriors much this offseason, but they’re just as scary this year as they were in 2014-15.

1st Place — Pacific Division

-Alex Kennedy

Top of the List

Top Offensive Player: Stephen Curry

Curry is one of the toughest covers in the NBA because of the seemingly endless range on his jumper. He’s also a gifted ball-handler and passer. Play him for the shot and he’ll drive; leave him open for a second and a shot is going up with his quick and accurate release.

Top Defensive Player: Andre Iguodala

Perhaps an unlikely NBA Finals MVP, but Iguodala gave Cleveland Cavaliers All-Star LeBron James as tough a time as anyone on the roster in June. Iguodala is now a seasoned veteran, who may not have the athleticism of his youth, but he is still agile, strong and smart. The offense Iguodala gave the Warriors helped push the team over the top, but it was really his defense that made the biggest difference. Runner up is Draymond Green, who is sized as a small forward but is a difference-maker defensively against bigger players (fours and even fives) and still capable when checking perimeter scorers.

Top Playmaker: Stephen Curry

Curry is such a dangerous threat as a shooter, teams often send multiple defenders his way. Skilled off the dribble with court vision, Curry willingly includes his teammates. He’s not necessarily a true point guard, like Chris Paul of the Los Angeles Clippers, but Curry is still the whole package with his overall offensive arsenal.

Top Clutch Player: Stephen Curry

Curry is the NBA’s reigning regular season MVP for a reason. He’s the guy the Warriors go to for a big basket with the game on the line, and Curry isn’t just a shot taker, but a shot maker.

The Unheralded Player: Shaun Livingston

The Warriors have long-looked for the right backup point guard behind Curry. In Livingston, the team has a lanky post-up guard with great court vision and the desire to get his teammates involved. Livingston uses his length well defensively and can play alongside Curry as needed.

Best New Addition: Jason Thompson

Thompson has been a solid role-player for years on a series of bad Sacramento Kings squads. The Warriors moved David Lee on to the Boston Celtics, the only significant change since a year ago. Lee is craftier than Thompson, but not as strong or as physical. This is easily the best team Thompson has ever been on. He’ll finally have the opportunity to show he can contribute to a winning franchise.

-Eric Pincus

Who We Like

The Splash Brothers: Klay Thompson and Curry are a dynamic offensive backcourt. Curry may be a prolific scorer but Thompson notched 37 points in a single quarter last year. The duo is a problem for the rest of the NBA.

Coach Steve Kerr: As a rookie head coach, Kerr pressed all the right buttons to help his team capture the title. Repeating is no easy task. Kerr will be tested this coming season, but he’s already shown that he knows what he’s doing in the position.

Draymond Green: The poster child for small ball. Kerr’s checkmate move in the Finals was to put Green at center against the Cavaliers.

Shaun Livingston: One of the NBA’s greatest comeback stories after a devastating leg injury with the Clippers that almost ended his career.

-Eric Pincus

Strengths

The Warriors are an offensive force, but high-scoring teams aren’t out of the ordinary in the NBA. What makes Golden State special is they play with pace and put up numbers (finishing second in the NBA in points scored per 100 possessions last season), but they also play hard on the defensive side of the ball. The Warriors have star power, a coach who communicates well and a deep, championship-caliber roster.

-Eric Pincus

Weaknesses

The Warriors deserve all the accolades of winning an NBA title, but would they be in the same position had they played teams with healthy rosters in the playoffs? From the New Orleans Pelicans to the Memphis Grizzlies to the Houston Rockets to the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Warriors simply didn’t face a team near full strength. They still have a lot to prove, while fighting complacency that can creep in once a team wins a championship.

-Eric Pincus

The Burning Question

Is a repeat in the cards?

Can the Warriors push through for a second-straight title? They didn’t face the San Antonio Spurs or Clippers last season.  Both teams have improved on paper. Golden State was blessed with health for most of the year, while their opponents were limping through the postseason. The Warriors are about to be seriously tested as reigning champs.

-Eric Pincus

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Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards

Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.

David Yapkowitz

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We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.

The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.

With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.

The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.

Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old

Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.

He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.

Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.

Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old

Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.

He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.

Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.

Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old

Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.

He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.

One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.

Honorable Mentions:
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old

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Looking Toward the Draft: Small Forwards

Basketball Insiders’ examination of the 2020 draft class continues with a look at the small forwards.

Drew Maresca

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It was announced on Wednesday that the NBA Draft would be delayed from Oct. 16 to Nov. 18. The rationale is that the extra month gives the league and its players association more time to negotiate changes to the CBA. It also grants teams additional time to procure information on prospects and allows the NBA to establish regional virtual combines. But nothing is set in stone.

Still, draft prep must continue. This year’s draft class has more question marks than usual – which was complicated by the cancellation of the NCAA tournament (along with the NIT and a number of conference tournaments). There are incredibly skilled offensive players with limited offensive upside and jaw-droppingly talented defenders with incomplete offensive packages. But if (recent) history serves as a guide, there will be a few guys who make an immediate impact – and some of them very well could be small forwards.

The small forward position is key for the modern NBA. Want proof? Survey the league and you’ll find that most – if not all – contenders have an elite small forward – Milwaukee, Los Angeles (both), Boston, Miami, Toronto.

But the list of can’t miss small forward prospects feels smaller than usual. Scanning the numerous legitimate mock drafts (including our own by Steve Kyler), it becomes apparent that we lack a consensus on which small forwards will be selected (and in what order) after the top 3 or 4. Can any of them grow into a star? Maybe. Maybe not. But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s identify what the top few bring to the table.

Deni Avdija, Israel – 19 years old

Avdija is a relatively well-rounded prospect who’s played professionally since he was 16. He boasts good height (6-foot-9) and uses it effectively to shoot over and pass around opposing defenses. Further, Avdija is an exceptional playmaker and he’s incredibly confident, enabling him to take chances many players would be apprehensive trying. Avdija is a high-IQ player. And what’s more, he’s a surprisingly strong defender. His height and above-average athleticism allow him to block shots, and he’s more physical than you’d expect him to be.

But there are drawbacks to Avdija, too. His main issue is around shooting. Avdija shot only 28% in the EuroLeague last season, and he shot only 60% from the free-throw line. Further, while he’s a decent athlete, he’ll struggle to secure a role in the NBA. He’s going to need to add speed to stay with modern wings, and he’ll also have to bulk up to bang with power forwards.

Still, Avdija’s upside is alluring. He’s only 19, and his smarts, confidence and grittiness should provide him cover for much of his rookie season. Avdija should be the first small forward off of the board.

Isaac Okoro, Auburn – 19 years old

Avdija might be the flashier name currently, but Okoro will give him a run for his money in terms of which small forward is first off the board. Okoro is built like a traditional NBA wing; he’s 6-foot-6 with good strength packed in his muscular frame (215 lbs). Okoro finishes well around the rim and he converts well through contact. He’s an exceptional athlete who excels catching the ball on the move. Like Avdija, Okoro has the poise and composure of a more experienced player. Also, like Avdija, Okoro looked the part of a high IQ player in his lone season at Auburn.

And while all that is great, the main allure of Okoro is his defense. He’s a fairly advanced defender given his age, and his athleticism and timing make him an effective weak side help defender.

While Okoro’s raw abilities are exquisite, his refined offensive skills leave something to be desired. Okoro shot 28 percent on three-point field goals and he struggled from the free-throw line (67.2 percent). His mid-range jump shot also needs work, and he struggles in isolation situations.

If Okoro can hone his offensive game, he could grow into an All-Star. He has the ability to guard multiple positions, and his strength and athleticism give him a leg up on most prospects. But even if he doesn’t become an All-Star, he possesses a fairly high floor given his defensive abilities — and the guy definitely fills the state sheet (12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, .9 steals and .9 blocks). He has lockdown defender potential and he’ll put his stamp on the game beginning on night one.

Devin Vassell, Florida State – 20 years old

Vassell played two seasons at Florida State, but he came into his own in his Sophomore season. He averaged 12.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. He shot a more than respectable 41.5% on three-point attempts, and he demonstrated a strong stroke from the free-throw line (73.8 percent) and on two-point field goal attempts (53.2).

Vassell is an extremely athletic leaper, who can rise up for a highlight dunk and sprint down the floor with ease. He has good body control and demonstrated a strong mid-range game, especially his step-back jump shot. But Vassell must generate more free throws through decisive moves to the hoop, which would be bolstered by a more muscular frame. Additionally, he must improve his ball-handling to get more from isolations.

Vassell will have an adjustment period in terms of scoring the ball at the next level. Fortunately, his defense and shooting should get him by. If he can bulk up and improve his handling, Vassell could grow into a serious player.

Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt – 20 years old

Nesmith probably has a lower floor than any of the other top small forward prospects given that he’ll be 21 by the draft. Still, he looked quite good in his Junior year, averaging 23 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game on a scorching 52.2 percent shooting from deep. Nesmith is an incredibly gifted shooter who has impressive range. His ability to catch-and-shoot and create space with fakes makes him a promising prospect – for the right team.

Nesmith is a high IQ player who uses his smarts on the defensive end. He’s also quite strong, can get buckets in the open floor and demonstrates above average ball-handling skills, as long as he’s not taking the ball to the hoop.

But there are inherent limitations in Nesmith’s game. He’s doesn’t create for his teammates too effectively and he turns the ball over more frequently than one would like with. Further, Nesmith is plagued by robotic movements that limit his athleticism. His ball-handling breaks down when taking the ball to the rack – something he’ll certainly have to work on in the NBA if he wants to be a versatile scoring threat against the bigger and stronger competition.

Still, Nesmith’s positives give him an excellent chance at being selected in the first round. His range alone will intrigue teams in need of a shooter.

Honorable Mentions:

Saddiq Bey, Villanova – 21 years old

Jaden McDaniels, Washington – 19 years old

Robert Woodard II, Mississippi State – 20 years old

With the uncertainty around small forward prospects, expect to see a revolving door of names enter the discussion after the first four wing prospects are off the board prior to Nov. 16 – assuming the draft is held then. But regardless of how you have them ranked, all of the aforementioned prospects have question marks. But all have had far more time to improve than they would have in years’ past. Let’s hope that shows come next season.

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NBA Daily: Opposite Plotlines for Today’s Matchups

With the two matchups going on today, Matt John examines the two teams who could be in the most trouble because of one of their individual stars for opposite reasons.

Matt John

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The second round of the NBA playoffs was hyped up to be one of the most entertaining we’ve had in years. So far, they haven’t fallen short of expectations. We knew that Houston and Los Angeles’ battle of opposite philosophies would make for some twists and turns. We knew that Boston and Toronto would duke it out in an Atlantic Division showdown. We knew that Miami would push Milwaukee to new heights. We didn’t really know if the Nuggets would give the Clippers a good series, but the fact that they have so far has made an intense postseason all the more gripping.

Anyway, today we’re getting two games from two series in completely opposite places. The Lakers and the Rockets will face off for the series lead, while the HEAT will try to finish off the Bucks once and for all. Below, we’re going to focus on two teams who have an individual star that either may be more flawed than we thought or one that may not be as flawed as we thought.

Bucks vs. HEAT: Giannis is great and all, but…

We all pretty much knew this was going to be a good series. We did not expect this.

The buzz surrounding Bucks v. HEAT was that Miami was going to make Milwaukee earn every win they got in this series. If that was the plan, then Miami has failed miserably, because until Khris Middleton went supernova on them on Sunday, Milwaukee had come up terribly short.

Let’s first give Miami the credit that they are due and more. With Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler alone, Miami was going to be a tough matchup for Milwaukee – but to see the Bucks all but roll over in this series is an unpleasant sight. Acquiring Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala has paid huge dividends and it’s showing. There are other factors involved, but Miami’s defensive efforts have limited Giannis to 21.8 points a game and that’s played a role in the HEAT being in the driver’s seat of this series.

Speaking of Giannis Antetokounmpo, this series has not been a good look for the Defensive Player of the Year. Especially since it looks like his second consecutive MVP (presumably) is right around the corner. So, to see both him and Milwaukee, once an unstoppable force without an immovable object in sight, get stopped by a sturdy but not immovable squad is saddening.

Nearly a year ago, Basketball Insiders compared these current Bucks to the Dwight Howard-led Orlando Magic from the late-2000’s/early 2010’s. To oversimplify things, both were contenders led by a superstar with a rare physique that made them tough to stop. To put the superstar in the best position, they surrounded them with playmakers and three-point shooters.

While the teams’ roster constructions weren’t exactly the same, their strengths as a team certainly were. Now we’re seeing the Bucks’ flaws just as we did the Magic 10 years ago. If you have the personnel to make the lone superstar uncomfortable, the team doesn’t function as well.

Giannis is near impossible to stop, but the one major flaw is that if you take away his ability to drive and force him into a jumper, he loses his rhythm. Even if his shot is on – never a guarantee – his opponents will let him beat them that way until he makes them pay. Hardly any team can pick on this, but the HEAT are one of them, and now they’re one win away from their first Eastern Conference Finals since LeBron James took his talents out of South Beach.

This ultimately is what puts Antetokounmpo below the likes of LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard for now. Those guys are rare physical specimens like him, but their elite games don’t revolve entirely around their natural gifts as he does or Dwight did. At 25 years old, there’s plenty of time for him to change that and, for all we know, he will, but to see him struggle at a time when the conference was supposed to run through him has ignited tons of questions.

Milwaukee’s technically not out yet, but they’ve shown their mortality against Miami. If this really is it for them, then they’ve got to find a quick fix for this problem because if they don’t, then the unspeakable may happen.

Lakers vs. Rockets: Westbrook has been bad and all but…

Shaking off the rust and recovering from a balky knee would be tough for anyone. For Russell Westbrook, it’s killing his productivity and, in turn, the Rockets’ playoff chances. He’s averaging 15.6 points on 39/16/47 splits with a most recent 10-point, 4-of-15 effort from the field which included seven turnovers and air balling wide-open threes sticking out like a sore thumb.

It also doesn’t help that he’s playing the Lakers of all teams. When Westbrook has been in, the Lakers have taken advantage of his shortcomings offensively and it shows both on the court and the stat line.

Most of Westbrook’s damage is hurting Houston on the offensive end. With the All-Star guard in the game, Houston is minus-13.7 with him on the court, the worst offensive rating on the team. The 12 turnovers he’s coughed up in this series probably have something to do with that.

With Westbrook’s struggles and his predecessor Chris Paul coming off of his best individual season since 2016, this, of course, has led to many second-guessing the swap last summer. Or let’s rephrase that: People have been second-guessing that trade since the moment it was announced and, in light of recent events, they’re piling on now more than ever.

Maybe they’re right. Even after playing in the NBA for over a decade now, Westbrook still hasn’t proven that he can control himself enough to reach his potential as a team player. We’ve seen glimpses. On the other hand, Paul showed that he can still pick apart defenses while holding his own on that end.

But replacing Paul with Westbrook was Harden’s idea. He didn’t want to play with Paul anymore and chose to play with one of his closest friends. You may think that the better fit is what’s best for the team, but we’ve seen the damage that can happen when your team’s best players have friction with one another. It hurt Utah this season. It hurt Boston last season. It destroyed the Lakers back in 2013. There’s no telling what it could have done to Houston this season.

Besides, we know that as bad as Westbrook has been, he’s capable of being better. Not a knockdown shooter, not even an efficient scorer, but he has done better in the past when the focus was on him. The more days he takes to shake off the rust from his knee, the more optimistic the Rockets ought to be.

The Rockets have to take the glass-half-full on this one because they don’t really have a choice otherwise.

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