The Timberwolves enter this season with a lot to look forward to, coming off a weirdly successful 2017-18 season. Its franchise player, Karl-Anthony Towns should continue to mature and develop. Jimmy Butler is still in tow as the team’s most dependable star on both sides of the court. Andrew Wiggins has yet to realize his full potential, but still possesses incredible upside. Coach Tom Thibodeau’s assumed desire to reconstruct his 2010-11 Bulls team is mildly entertaining – so much so that some in the media have taken to calling the team the Timberbulls – but what’s really interesting is that the 2017-18 Wolves team were a subpar defensive unit despite being coached by a defensive guru. What’s even more surprising is that the team was successful with that style of play. So much so that it entered its February 24th contest against the Rockets in fourth place in the loaded Western Conference – a game in which Butler was injured, forcing him to miss the next 17 games and do serious damage to its playoff standings. Still, the Wolves talent wouldn’t allow them to implode entirely. The team ended the season with 47-wins and the eighth seed in the playoffs.
But problems exist for the Timberwolves. Can the team overcome the hostility between Butler, Towns and Wiggins? Can Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones continue to lead the team from the point guard position? Will Andrew Wiggins lock in defensively and become the star he was projected to be? And will Thibodeau be able to develop a deeper rotation or will be continue overwhelming his stars with tremendous workloads in the 2018-19 season?
FIVE GUYS THINK…
The Minnesota Timberwolves have so much talent and so many issues, unfortunately. The biggest issue, of course, is the internal discord between Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns. If Tom Thibodeau can get his star players on the same page, this team could be one of the better Western Conference teams this season. If things fall apart early on, things could get ugly. I want to be optimistic and project that the key players on the roster will put the team first and focus on making a deep postseason run. However, I get the sense that this ongoing situation has gone too far and cannot be fully resolved at this point. I hope I am wrong, but only time will tell.
5th Place – Northwest Division
– Jesse Blancarte
As Tom Thibodeau continues his attempt to recreate his old Bulls roster and guys from the current group bicker somewhat publicly, it’s been a weird summer in Minnesota. This group clearly has the talent to be a playoff team in the West, and maybe even a top-four seed if everything breaks right and they get some internal development. But it’s hard to shake the feeling that despite that, this locker room feels primed for an implosion that sees them fall well short of the level their talent suggests they should attain. Butler’s renewed health along with the development of Karl-Anthony Towns will be two of the biggest factors, but so will the relationship between stars who have rumored to not exactly see eye to eye. Butler’s impending free agency in 2019 also looms large here.
4th Place – Northwest Division
– Ben Dowsett
Whatever optimism there was headed into last fall has gradually faded away a short year later. The Timberwolves are an enigma. They have a stud All-Star big man in Karl-Anthony Towns, a no-nonsense All-Star swingman in Jimmy Butler and steady veteran starters like Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson. Entering the first year of his five-year maximum contract extension signed in October 2017, Andrew Wiggins has to bring forth better production than he did last season. Chances are after a run with Butler for a full season, he might have a better feel for that role. However, with the Northwest Division in high competition, Minnesota could find itself on the short end of the stick.
4th Place – Northwest Division
– Spencer Davies
It might be time to declare that we jumped the gun on the Timberwolves. For the past few years, they’ve been hyped as the team of the future. Once they added Jimmy Butler, it seemed like their potential would finally be tapped. They may have made the playoffs last season, but the red flags definitely manifested themselves. Nobody appears to be happy. Butler appears ready to skip town. Thibs appears to not have learned his lesson from Chicago. The Timberwolves should be back in the hunt this year, but they are in a very competitive division within an even more competitive conference. If the discord is legit, it’s hard seeing them returning to the postseason.
5th Place – Northwest Division
– Matt John
We’ll see… that’s the only way you can honestly look at this Timberwolves team. On paper they should emerge as an elite team in the NBA. They have two bona fide All-Stars in Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns, and if Andrew Wiggins can find that next gear they should have three. The problem is the noise about the young guys and Butler is very real, and while Tom Thibodeau is a solid head coach, we’re seeing that the coach in charge of everything model isn’t working, so we’ll see. Too much is being made of the TimberBulls thing because adding quality veterans that the coach knows and trusts is a common thing, regardless of where they played. The real question for the Wolves is can their Big Three play like a Big Three and not three high level guys trying to do their own thing? The Wolves could be special, they have some special players, but as we’ve seen elsewhere, having good guys doesn’t always equate to success. Especially when egos and contrasting needs and wants factor in.
5th Place – Northwest Division
– Steve Kyler
TOP OF THE LIST
Top Offensive Player: Karl-Anthony Towns
The Wolves have a number of strong offensive players, but none with as many gifts as Towns. Towns fits the unicorn mold as a seven-footer who can shoot from deep, punish opponents in the post, pass the ball and run the court. Towns is a mismatch for opponents nearly every night. He posted a PER of 24.9 last season, with 21.3 points, 12.3 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game. While his scoring dipped four points per game last season, he saw increased efficiency in his already strong three-point and free throw shooting. Further, Towns decreased his turnovers per game from 2.7 to 1.9.
The Timberwolves would love to lock Towns up long term, which they can do soon if they agree to a contract extension prior to October 15. Towns is eligible for a five year max extension worth between $158 and $190 million. Will Towns sign the extension this late in the offseason? Will he and the Wolves agree on a shorter contract, which puts pressure on the team to get creative? Or might he wait until next offseason to make a decision? Only time will tell.
Top Defensive Player: Jimmy Butler
The Minnesota Timberwolves are among the few NBA franchises whose best defender is also the team’s leader and best player. Fortunately for the Wolves, the 2018 All-NBA defender is a maniacal worker who is incredibly dedicated to his conditioning and his craft. The Wolves are also fortunate that Butler’s defensive workload doesn’t affect his ability to contribute offensively. In fact, Butler led the Wolves in scoring last season with 22.2 points per game. He also tallied a personal best in steals per game (2.0) while regularly guarding the opposing team’s best guard or wing.
But last season was the first since his rookie year that Butler failed to play in at least 65 games. Butler proved that his knee was healthy following a February 2018 meniscus tear, but is the grind of carrying such a heavy workload on both sides of the court beginning to result in unsustainable fatigue? And will last season’s missed games prove to be the rule now and into the future or the exception to it?
Top Playmaker: Jeff Teague
By default, a team with as much infighting as the Wolves must have an effective playmaker to spread the floor and distribute the ball. Fortunately for the Wolves, Teague is a veteran who is used to sharing the ball with multiple starts. Remember, Teague was the starting point guard for the Atlanta Hawks teams, which featured Al Horford, Josh Smith and Joe Johnson – all of whom were legitimate scoring threats in the early 2010s.
Teague might not be a vocal leader like Chris Paul, but he is capable facilitator. He averaged 14.2 points and 7.0 assists per game last year while captaining the Wolves offense. And despite the team’s internal struggles, he fed his three main offensive weapons the rock, with Butler, Towns and Wiggins averaging 22.2, 21.3 and 17.7 points per game, respectively. If Teague can continue to play as reliably as he did last season, the point guard position looks to be in good hands for now.
Top Clutch Player: Andrew Wiggins
While this may seem slightly counterintuitive – after all, the word on Wiggins is that he has developed less through this point of his career than many had hoped – Wiggins actually has the stats to back it up. Believe it or not, Wiggins is the only member of the Timberwolves to hit a buzzer beater last season. But he didn’t win only one game with his heroics. He hit two buzzer beaters in 2017-18: a three-pointer on October 22 against the Thunder and an 18-footer on January 24 against Phoenix. Does this mean he has Mamba blood coursing through his veins? Not exactly. But it does mean that when asked to come through in the clutch, he can do so with the game on the line.
The Unheralded Player: Taj Gibson
The majority of the Wolves roster is easily classifiable as a star, former star, role player or rookie. And then there is Taj Gibson. Team President Thibodeau overpaid the veteran with a two-year, $28 million dollar deal beause Head Coach Thibodeau values Gibson’s on-court contributions. And it’s not Gibson’s fault he was offered a lucrative contract. Besides, he registered an above average PER of 15.4 last season. He put up 12.2 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, which represent the second best scoring and rebounding outputs of his career. And he even set a single-season team record, shooting 57-percent from the field.
But it’s important to remember that Gibson’s biggest contributions are harder to measure. Yes, he can score when needed. In fact, he scored 16 or more points in 23 games. But he was also the Wolves best post defender, and possibly their most versatile one, too. He covered an array of all-star-quality talent from James Harden to Nikola Jokic. Gibson is a good shot-contester. He was actually the twenty-second bes shot contester in the league last season. He also works his tail off and is a good locker room presence for a team that needs a positive influence. Most importantly, he impacts the game without being featured in the offense. But can Gibson impact remain as strong as he enters his tenth season? If he can, look for Gibson to log heavy minutes and make nightly contributions.
Best New Addition: Josh Okogie
Josh Okogie played two seasons at Georgia Tech, where he developed nicely. The 6’4” guard has elite athleticism that will likely carry him early in his career while he acclimates to the NBA game. He is a leaper who can run the court effectively on both offense and defense. He has numerous highlight-worthy chase-down blocks, for which he was aided by his freakish 7’0” wingspan. His energy and motor will be a valuable asset for a team that is lacking in both youth and depth.
Okogie’s peers think highly of his athleticism, too. He was rated the second most athletic rookie by the 2018 rookie class in their recent survey with NBA.com, which also named him second-runner-up in the best defender category. Okogie would be wise to make nice with Jimmy Butler and study his off-the-court procedures given their similar skill sets. Nothing is guaranteed – especially from a rookie – but Okogie should be a foundational building block if he’s willing to put in the requisite work.
– Drew Maresca
WHO WE LIKE
1. Keita Bates-Diop
Nabbing an impact player in the second round of the draft is always a cause for celebration. While doubts exist around most second-rounders, most of them are centered on a 2017 stress fracture in his left leg. But the 2018 rookie class seems to be fairly confident in Bates-Diop’s abilities. Through the above-mentioned survey, they named Bates-Diop as the biggest steal of the draft after watching him average 8.3 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game in summer league action.
Bates-Diop has a relatively polished two-way game. The2017 Big Ten Player of the Year has a good touch. He is 6’8” wing with a 7’3” wingspan, which should allow him to develop into a versatile rim protector who can switch onto almost anyone on the court. The Timberwolves are thin up front and can benefit greatly from Bates-Diop, especially if he can mature quickly and improve his willingness to engage defensively on the low block
2. Tyus Jones
Tyus Jones stat line doesn’t come off as terribly impressive. Through 82 games in 2017-18, Jones averaged only 5.1 points and 2.8 assists per game., and was a mediocre three-point shooter at .349 from deep. But upon closer inspection, the Timberwolves’ fourth-year guard looks like he could be a keeper.
The team played better with Jones on the court in his 17.9 minutes per game than it did while he was on the bench. With Jones, the Timberwolves were 5.3 points per 100 possessions better than their opponents, and only .4 points per possession better while he was on the bench. Further, the team’s four starters plus Jones in place of Teague was actually 23.6 points better per 100 possessions than opponents. – albeit in only 261 minutes action. Much of this success stems from the fact that Jones had a low usage rate, and Towns, Butler and Wiggins took more shot attempts with Jones stewarding the team instead of Teague. Further, Jones turned the ball over at a low rate and contributed positively to the team’s defensive efforts. But those are difficult stats to ignore.
Jones opportunities should grow dramatically in the near future, too. The Wolves unofficially parted ways with guard Jamal Crawford after his contract expired following this past season. Crawford accounted for 20.7 minutes per game of the team’s available playing time for guards. It is unlikely that all of those minutes go to Jones, but the NBA is a production-oriented league. If Jones continues to produce, he will earn more playing time and, therefore, more opportunity to prove himself.
3. Andrew Wiggins
Wiggins is an interesting case. He hasn’t lived up to the sky-high expectations he’s been shouldering since entering the league as the next sure thing. But he did average 17.7 points per game last season as the team’s third option, not too shabby for an disappointment, And considering he is only 23, he still has substantial upside.
Wiggins regressed last season, partially due to the presence of Jimmy Butler and the fact that they play similar roles on offense. Butler is the more efficient of the two, but Wiggins natural talent might be greater. If he can figure out how to remain engaged for longer periods of time, his efficiency should improve. Further, if he embraces the challenge of becoming a lockdown defender – a challenge he is perfectly capable of succeeding at – he will receive additional accolades for being a true two-way player, much like Butler himself. And the Wolves will certainly need that level of production from its only committed star this season and beyond.
4. Derrick Rose
Despite the injuries and the dramatic fall from grace, Derrick Rose is still a big name in the basketball world. He is incredibly polarizing: loved by many, hated by others. Regardless of what you think of him, Rose can still contribute, albeit in a lesser capacity than he once did.
Rose should not be inserted into the starting lineup, nor should he be relied on to play too many minutes on a regular basis. But last we saw, he can still accelerate and finish around the rim better than most NBA players. He actually averaged 21.5 points per 36 minutes in the team’s five-game playoff series against the Houston Rockets in 2018. He can enter the game and prop up an otherwise stagnant offense for a short period of time. Assuming realistic expectations are in place, Rose can be an effective piece of a competing team – so long as he remains healthy.
– Drew Maresca
Superstars are traditionally viewed as foundational pieces for NBA teams. In the modern NBA, a team needs more than one superstar to be competitive. The way teams rank players is subjective, but its generally thought to be better to have more widely-considered great players than not. Sports Illustrated recently published its top 100 player rankings, and the Timberwolves’s Butler, Towns and Wiggins all ranked in the top 100 at 10, 19 and 74, respectively. They all complement each other nicely. They are all athletic and versatile. At 7’0”, 6’8” and 6’8”, they boast a good amount of size and length. Sure, Butler and Wiggins are a bit redundant. But if they can get on the same page, they are the closest thing to a present-day Michael and Scottie.
On paper, the team should be competitive with most teams in the league. They kept most of their talented players and added in two serviceable rookies. The roster should have no problem propelling the Wolves back into the playoffs, but unfortunately the games are not decided on paper.
– Drew Maresca
The Minnesota Timberwolves are top heavy. We’ve established that the team is built around its three core stars. Towns and Wiggins are both young. Butler is 29, which means he is likely in the middle of his prime. Beyond those three there is very little youth on the roster, discounting the addition of the two rookies. Their point guards are Jeff Teague (30 years old), Tyus Jones (22) and Derrick Rose (29). Its forwards include Gibson (33), Anthony Tolliver (33) and Luol Deng (33). And its only serviceable backup center is Gorgui Dieng (28), an athletic, but limited, player. The Wolves do not have a backup shooting guard other than rookie Josh Okogie.
Coach Thibodeau’s strategy of relying on his starters will be tested this season. Hopefully it holds up for at least one more year. If not, the Wolves will need to rethink its philosophy on the fly.
– Drew Maresca
THE BURNING QUESTION:
Can Minnesota keep its core together?
The Minnesota Timberwolves find themselves in a precarious situation. On the one hand, the Wolves just completed its first winning season since 2004-05, ultimately posting its best season in years. And two of its franchise players, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are only 22 and 23 years old, respectively. The Wolves should theoretically be in great shape to continue improving this season.
On the other hand, the team enters the 2018-19 season with drama surrounding its core. The Wolves’ most productive player – Jimmy Butler – has taken offense to the casual approach of its other two superstars. According to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times, Butler is all but fed up with the nonchalant attitude of his younger teammates, especially Karl-Anthony Towns. Further, Sean Deveney of The Sporting News reported last season that Butler had problems with Wiggins, his work ethic and his approach on the defensive end of the floor.
Unfortunately for the Wolves, Wiggins is the only one of the three to be signed to a long-term deal at $146.5 million dollars. Towns hasn’t yet accepted the contract extension offered to him in July. The opportunity to extend Towns evaporates as of 6 pm EST on October 15. Further, Butler becomes a free agent following the 2018-19 season. Unfortunately, Minnesota gave up a lot of value to pry Butler from Chicago last summer, and yet it seems as though the Wolves’ relationship with Butler might be irreparable – especially considering his rumored desire to pair up with Kyrie Irving.
Minnesota can go in one of two very different directions: it can re-sign Towns – and try to sign Butler – and continue to build around its existing core, or it can lose one or both of its soon-to-be free agent stars. This season and next offseason carry massive implications for the franchise. The three stars do not have to become friends with one another, but they need to co-exist on the court for the Wolves to be successful.
– Drew Maresca
NBA Daily: Buyers Or Sellers – Southwest Division
Ben Nadeau continues Basketball Insiders’ “Buyers or Sellers” series with a break down of the Southwest Division.
Today is the day! Dec. 15. is finally here.
There are still a few weeks until Christmas, but this particular date marks another major holiday in NBA circles. As of 12:01 EST, players that signed new contracts in the offseason are eligible to be traded at long last. Although we won’t see a flurry of moves by any means, the old rumor mill should be up and running in no time. To commemorate the yearly occasion, Basketball Insiders dusted off the timeless Buyers or Sellers series and this entry will bring the ride to the ever-reliable Southwest Division.
For more trade chatter: Steve Kyler on the league-wide landscape, Spencer Davis covered the Central Division, David Yapkowitz broke down the Northwest, Drew Maresca tallied the Atlantic and Shane Rhodes grabbed the Southeast. With plenty of basketball behind us already, it’s time to take stock within the NBA’s most exciting division.
Spoiler alert: They’re all in it to win it, as always.
Through nearly 30 games, the Mavericks are right where they hoped to be — right in the thick of things. Before the season began, many wrote off Dallas — not because of their overall roster skill, but simply because the stingy Western Conference is no easy beast to conquer. Of course, they’re far from safe and a losing streak can spell trouble for any franchise, but the Mavericks have the correct balance of young assets and veteran leadership to make these good times last. Dirk Nowitzki made his long-awaited season debut on Thursday night against Phoenix, veterans like DeAndre Jordan, Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews have kept the ship steady and then there’s Luka Dončić, the rookie that’s set the league on fire.
Flanked by an experience-heavy bench, the Mavericks have exceeded expectations thus far and clearly won’t be sellers headed into trade season. Although, beyond that, it’s hard to envision Dallas finding a true way to considerably upgrade. Matthews’ expiring contract worth $18 million is intriguing, but his 39 percent mark from three-point range has been invaluable. Same, basically, with Jordan’s looming, consistent presence in the paint. And it’s hard to believe that many teams would bite on paying Barnes and his deal worth $25 million in 2019-20. Dončić and Nowitzki aren’t going anywhere either — duh — so that leaves Dennis Smith Jr. as perhaps the Mavericks’ most expendable piece right now.
Smith Jr. is averaging 13 points and 4 assists, a slight decline on his rookie season numbers, but the Mavericks would be wise to stick with the 21-year-old that went No. 9 overall so recently. If Dallas is serious about making a postseason push — and they should be — look for them to make a minor, bench-fortifying move between now and February.
Players whose trade restrictions are lifted on Dec. 15: Ryan Broekhoff, Devin Harris, DeAndre Jordan, Salah Mejri, Dirk Nowitzki
It’s begun to feel like beating a dead horse, but the Rockets are certainly in trouble.
In the crowded conference, Houston has done just enough not to be completely buried and forgotten about. Still, it’s also difficult to find an easy path back into this season as the legitimate contenders they once were. It’s well-documented by now, but the losses of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute loom large and their replacements — including the already-departed Carmelo Anthony — have failed to replicate their contributions. The Rockets balked at making a panic splash for Jimmy Butler and now they’re just hoping to slowly figure things out. Salary cap complications may have caused the offseason exodus, but the Rockets have lost their bite and defensive identity from a massively successful 2017-18 campaign.
As expected, James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capela have been remarkably robust again, but their depth takes a hard nose-dive from there. With so much money already committed to the core, Houston has no choice but to be buyers moving forward. Recent rumors have linked the franchise to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a useful defender and scorer who is, most importantly, obtainable. Badly in a need for a wing, Caldwell-Pope and his expiring contract worth $12 million would be a solid fit both rotationally and financially for the Rockets. Outside of that, Houston could shift around the likes of P.J. Tucker, Gerald Green, Marquese Chriss and Michael Carter-Williams, but would likely need to attach some picks in order to actually upgrade in a considerable way.
Players whose trade restrictions are lifted on Dec. 15: Michael Carter-Williams, James Ennis, Gerald Green; Jan. 15: Clint Capela, Chris Paul
Sixth place! Memphis basketball is back, baby!
Just when we all thought the Grizzlies might be finally, officially dead, they go and rope us right back in. Helmed by head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, the 16-12 surprise squad is squarely involved in the postseason race. In fact, as of posting, the Grizzlies simultaneously lead the Southwest Division and only merely outpace the aforementioned disappointing, 13th-place Rockets by two games in the loss column. On the other hand, Memphis is just three behind Denver and Golden State for that elusive top spot, so, yes, the Grizzlies should be buyers in no uncertain terms.
(In fact, they nearly acquired Kelly Oubre Jr. earlier this morning…)
The early returns on recent additions like Kyle Anderson, Garrett Temple and Omri Casspi are promising, but there’s still a discernable gap between Memphis and the perennial powers that oppose them. Furthermore, they probably lack the type of big offer it’ll take to acquire somebody like Bradley Beal, but that doesn’t mean they’re totally limited here either.
J.R. Smith and Courtney Lee could be intriguing options for a roster that badly needs more shooting from deep. If Memphis wants to roll the dice, the Hawks’ Kent Bazemore — who is owed $19.2 million in 2019-20 — would be a culturally strong fit for the on-court brand as well. Ultimately, there are targets here for the taking if they’re willing to move on from JaMychel Green following the fast emergence of rookie phenom Jaren Jackson Jr. Green, 28, will be an unrestricted free agent in July and might be an enticing prospect for any franchise looking to clear up a chunk of cap space.
Assuming that Marc Gasol and Mike Conley Jr. are both invested for the long haul, the Grizzlies will remain firmly in the win-now column. Now, if only they could find a taker for that Chandler Parsons contract…
Players whose trade restrictions are lifted on Dec. 15: Kyle Anderson, Omri Casspi, Shelvin Mack
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans have Anthony Davis, so their designation should be awfully clear: Buyers.
It’s all about Davis, obviously, and the future Hall of Famer is eligible for a supermax contract in the 2019 offseason. If the Pelicans want to keep their once-in-a-generation star, there’s no time like the present to prove your undying commitment. Naturally, that’s why the Pelicans are one of the trade market’s most active teams right now, according to Brian Windhorst of ESPN. Similarly to Memphis, New Orleans lacks the high-ceiling prospect or hefty expiring contract that a significant upgrade in this scenario would entail. However, given that Pelicans must do whatever it takes to appease Davis, their trove of untouched draft picks should be available this winter.
Julius Randle has proven to be a quality signing, while Elfrid Payton was contributing nicely prior to fracturing his finger in November. Nikola Mirotic, E’Twaun Moore and Davis have all missed a sampling of games as well, leading the Pelicans to some unpredictable performances. Attempting to tread water out west is a dangerous game, so New Orleans may feel compelled to jump in the deep end sooner rather than later. Whether it’s small trade or a blockbuster effort, keeping Davis happy is one of the NBA’s most intriguing narratives as the superstar quickly hurdles toward potential free agency in 2020.
Although they’ve been marred by lingering injuries, this Pelicans team is clearly talented — but can they afford to wait much longer without adding reinforcements?
Players whose trade restrictions are lifted on Dec. 15: Ian Clark, Jahlil Okafor, Elfrid Payton, Julius Randle, Kenrich Williams
San Antonio Spurs
This is a Gregg Popovich-led franchise still — so the Spurs, who haven’t missed the postseason since 1996-97, aren’t about to sell their assets and tank out anytime soon.
Sure, it’s been slow-going at times for an injury-riddled roster that’s now deep into their first full season with Kawhi Leonard at the helm. Granted, the breakup was indeed messy — but adjusting an entire scheme to a different superstar is not always an easy task. To his credit, DeMar DeRozan is soaring in San Antonio, averaging a career-high in both rebounds and assists through the first 29 games. Beyond that, Manu Ginobili retired, Tony Parker signed in Charlotte and Kyle Anderson left in free agency — all of sudden, everything had changed.
Toss in the brutal injuries to Lonnie Walker, Dejounte Murray and Pau Gasol, it’s easy to see why the Spurs have struggled out of the gate.
Since long-time wing Danny Green was part of the DeRozan-Leonard swap in July, the Spurs have sorely missed a defensive contributor at that spot. The just-moved Ariza would have been a flawless fit for Popovich and the Spurs, but there are plenty of veterans on the market for them snap to up if they’re willing. There’s a question of whether or not a healthy San Antonio team is a contender anyway — but as long as that legendary head coach is still in charge, they’ll be competing until the very end.
Players whose trade restrictions are lifted on Dec. 15: Marco Belinelli, Dante Cunningham, Rudy Gay, Quincy Pondexter; Jan. 15: Davis Bertans, Bryn Forbes
It’s business as usual in the Southwest Division and that won’t be changing in the near future. Between the hungry superstars and talented head coaches, selling at the trade deadline seems like a near impossibility. Although it’s still early, all five teams are entrenched in both the division and postseason battle, so get used to seeing them slug it out until April. The volatile Western Conference means that four of them could easily miss out — but the smart money says that it’ll be a close race until the very end.
Davis, Popovich, Dončić, Conley and the reigning conference runner-ups — how could you bet against any of them? For now, the best we can do is keep an eye on this space and watch the stars shine.
NBA Daily: Buyers Or Sellers – Southeast Division
Shane Rhodes continues Basketball Insiders’ “Buyers or Sellers” series with a break down of the Southeast Division.
The trade market has been an active one this season and, on December 15, trade chatter should only increase; players that signed contracts prior to September 15 will become eligible to be traded.
While some big names have already been moved — Jimmy Bulter, Kyle Korver, George Hill, etc. — anything could happen between now and the February Trade Deadline. One team could go on a hot streak and look to add talent, while another could watch their season nose dive and look to acquire assets to either retool or rebuild. But which teams should look to buy and which should look to sell?
Basketball Insiders has started a “Buyers and Sellers” series to find out just that. We’ve already looked at the Atlantic, Central and Northwest divisions, and today we will focus in on the Southeast.
So, which teams are poised to make a postseason run and which should look to strip down the roster?
The Charlotte Hornets are in a tough spot.
Kemba Walker has played at an MVP level this season and any team with that kind of talent should be able to grab a top-eight seed with ease in the weaker Eastern Conference. However, the Hornets aren’t exactly a powerhouse; while they sit atop the Southeast Divison and sixth in the conference, they do so with just a 14-13 record. Their roster is middling at best, and most in their position would look to retool for next season, if not start a complete teardown.
But they can’t exactly do that now.
The Hornets made a win now move this offseason when they brought Tony Parker aboard. If they decided to tear it down now, not only would it be a slap in the face to Parker, but to the fans and, most importantly, Walker as well. Walker is on the last year of his deal and will look to cash in next offseason. If Charlotte can’t win some games, they could hurt their chances of retaining that All-Star point guard.
So, what should the Hornets prioritize as trade season looms? Rebounding.
Charlotte is eighth in the NBA in points per game and, while their defense could use some work, they are good enough that it shouldn’t be their top priority. However, they have some serious rebounding issues; Cody Zeller is the Hornets leading rebounder with just 5.6 per game. As a team, they are 21st in the NBA with just 43.8 per game.
The Hornets have plenty of bigs on the roster — Zeller, Marvin Williams, Willy Hernangomez, Bismack Biyombo — but none of them are having a big impact on the glass. If the team has an opportunity to swap out one of the duds for an interior threat, they should take it while they can.
Players whose trade restrictions are lifted on Dec. 15: Tony Parker
Like the Hornets, the Orlando Magic are at best a middling roster that, as of now, is vying for a playoff spot. But, unlike the Hornets, they aren’t in a position where the need to win now.
The future in Orlando resides with Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac and Mohamed Bamba, but they aren’t already to make an impact at the highest level. So, at 13-15, the Magic should go into asset collection mode and sell off some pieces while they still have value. Draft compensation should be the primary goal, but it wouldn’t be the worst if Orlando took a chance on some young could-be contributors.
Nikola Vucevic, an unrestricted free agent next season, has increased his value with a dominant season thus far and could return some premium assets. His departure would open up heavy minutes to be split amongst Isaac and Bamba, which could be a major boon to their development, and it would provide the Magic with some sort of return rather than losing him for nothing next offseason.
Evan Fournier is another piece that could be a major boost for a contender — the 26-year-old has averaged 14.9 points, 2.9 rebounds and 3.9 assists this season — and could probably be had for a reasonable return. With the Magic expected to find their home in the lottery in a forward-heavy draft, the absence of Fournier could open up immediate playing time for whomever they select.
D.J. Augustin, Terrance Ross and Jonathon Simmons are just a few of the other role players that could be had from the Magic roster.
Players whose trade restrictions are lifted on Dec. 15: Isaiah Briscoe
The Dwyane Wade farewell tour, thus far, has been a success. The same can’t be said for the Miami HEAT season.
After they made the postseason a year ago, the HEAT find themselves at just 11-16 on the year. And, with no major reinforcements on the way, things probably won’t get much better from here. That being said, they have some quality pieces they could move for future assets.
Goran Dragic could be a major addition for any team looking for point guard help. While the contract may be tough to stomach, Hassan Whiteside could be a major force inside if active and engaged on both ends. James Johnson, Dion Waiters and Kelly Olynyk could provide major depth for any team looking to make a playoff push.
Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow and Bam Adebayo are a solid core to build around and, while it may be sad to see the last season of Wade squandered, it would be best for the HEAT to focus on those three and build around them for the future. If they can add another young, impact guard to the mix — either via trade or the draft — that future could be a bright one.
Players whose trade restrictions are lifted on Dec. 15: Wayne Ellington, Udonis Haslem and Derrick Jones
The sky was falling for the Washington Wizards at the start of the season. Things haven’t improved much since, but they have perked up a bit.
The Wizards are in a No Man’s Land of sorts; the postseason is within reach — and they have the NBA talent to get there — but how far could they really go? John Wall hasn’t looked himself at times, but he and Bradley Beal are still one of the better one-two punches in the NBA. But, while the rest of the roster may do enough to get them to the postseason, it may not do enough to push much further.
So what should the Wizards do? It starts with Otto Porter Jr.
The Wizards signed Porter to a max-deal in 2017, and their return on investment hasn’t been great; Porter averaged 14.7 points, 6.4 rebounds and shot 44.1 percent from three in the first year of his new deal, but has seen the majority of his numbers — most importantly, his scoring numbers and shooting percentages — dip this season.
Porter has to prove to the Wizards that he is worth the money, and the Wizards have to push Porter to be the best player he can be. If one or the other can’t do their job, then a split may be best for both parties.
Beyond that, the Wizards have plenty of other problems to deal with. They rank just 27th in the NBA in three-point percentage and 28th in rebounding — that has to change if they want to compete. The sheer amount of money already tied into Wall, Beal and Porter will make any significant upgrades difficult, but the Wizards will have to try something; if they don’t, a roster reboot will be waiting for them.
Players whose trade restrictions are lifted on Dec. 15: Dwight Howard and Jeff Green
The Atlanta Hawks are bad. They know it, the league knows it. If anyone on their roster, outside the trio Trae Young, Taurean Prince and John Collins, isn’t able to be had for a future asset, they are doing this rebuilding thing wrong.
The Hawks should be hunting for draft picks, but looking for some depth on the wing wouldn’t be a bad idea, either. Vince Carter is 41 going on 1 million, Kent Bazemore should be on the move and Justin Anderson and DeAndre Bembry are lower-level rotation players at best. There are some solid pieces in place, but the Hawks have a long way to go before they are buyers again.
Players whose trade restrictions are lifted on Dec. 15: Vince Carter, Alex Len and Daniel Hamilton
Trade season is long, and there is plenty of time for things to go the other way for some of these teams. And this is only the Southeast; teams all over the NBA could see their fortunes reversed between now and February. Either way, an interesting few months lie ahead, and they could have a major impact on the NBA landscape come seasons end.
Be on the lookout for the rest of our “Buyers or Sellers” breakdowns as well.
NBA Daily: Buyers Or Sellers – Atlantic Division
Drew Maresca continues Basketball Insiders’ “Buyers or Sellers” series with a break down of the Atlantic Division.
While teams are technically allowed to trade prior to December 15, NBA trade season really heats up on that day. And with trade season comes lots of goodies like rumors to sort through, player activity on Twitter and other social media sites and – most importantly – the changes to rosters across the league.
December 15 is the line of demarcation because as of then, free agent signees from last offseason are eligible to be traded. This means teams that may have buyer’s remorse can move on from deals they regret and other teams that may have missed on a free agent target get a second chance to land their player.
The Atlantic Division features three teams in a full-on arms race – Boston, Philadelphia and Toronto – and two others preparing their rosters to make a run at free agents this coming offseason.
The Sixers already drew first blood with their trade of Robert Covington and Dario Saric for Jimmy Butler. Meanwhile, the Raptors are sitting pretty with the league’s best record through 30 games and the Celtics, at 7-3 in their last 10 games, seem to have figured out the rotational issues that have plagued them thus far.
We at Basketball Insiders began a new series examining each NBA team by division and identifying which teams should be looking to move or add salary as we quickly approach December 15. Let’s take a closer look at the teams in the Atlantic Division.
The Celtics roster is still in a delicate state. They just recently began playing consistently good basketball. They have a gluttony of talent, but there is probably limited interest in moving any of their core pieces for anyone not named Anthony Davis – as evidenced by their apprehension to involve themselves in dealings with the Pacers for Paul George prior to last year or with the Timberwolves for Jimmy Butler prior to his trade to Philadelphia.
The one player that they should seriously consider moving, however, is Terry Rozier. Rozier is due for a raise. They could issue him the qualifying offer after the season and match the offer sheet he chooses to sign, but it is virtually an inevitability that someone will make him a lucrative offer – and one the Celtics would probably prefer to avoid paying due to luxury tax implications.
If the Celtics truly feel that Kyrie Irving is the long-term solution at point guard and that he will re-sign as he said he will, then they need to cash in Rozier. While his stock isn’t quite as high now as it was coming off of his play in the 2018 NBA Playoffs, he did nothing to hurt the perception of him. The Celtics could still probably pry some assets away from a team desperate for a point guard of the future. And considering the four first-round draft picks they control in 2019 and how onerous onboarding four rookies would be for a veteran team, the prudent move may be to package Rozier and picks for someone that fits better with the roster its timeline.
Players whose trade restrictions are lifted on December 15: Aron Baynes, Jabari Bird and Brad Wanamaker
The Nets are in prime position to be sellers as they try to scrape together as much cap space for the free agency gold rush of 2019 as possible. Gone are the days of taking on overpaid role players in exchange for draft picks and other assets – even though they look to be a fringe playoff team and would love to get their young stars some playoff experience.
They must fight that urge. And for now, the Nets will probably stand pat. I’m sure they would like to get out from the Allen Crabbe contract considering is effect on their cap space moving forward, but that’s a tough pill for any team to swallow without sending out additional assets.
Like the Celtics, the Nets have two quality point guards and should considering moving one. The Celtics situation is far more cut and dry, though. The Nets need to first identify who they hope to build around – D’Angelo Russell or Spencer Dinwiddie. Russell will cost more, but Dinwiddie is a bit more of a scoring point guard than a facilitator. Dinwiddie just signed an three-year, $34 million extension Thursday. While they could re-sign Russell and retain both guys, it would be prohibitive to their plans in free agency. And losing Russell for nothing would be a real missed opportunity to return future assets.
Players whose trade restrictions are lifted on December 15: Ed Davis, Treveon Graham and Shabazz Napier
New York Knicks
The Knicks plan to try their hand at shopping soon, too, but not yet. Now is actually prime time for the Knicks to be sellers. The team would obviously like to sign at least one superstar – if not more – this offseason. While they will likely have enough cap space to do so, part of their pitch will likely be the ability to sign a few contributors.
To make that a reality, the Knicks must trade either Courtney Lee or Tim Hardaway Jr. Hardaway has been more productive this season than ever before, but he is owed more money on a longer deal, so it’s more likely that Lee is the easier of the two to trade.
When healthy, Lee is still a productive and efficient wing who can still defend and who has shot at least .400 from three-point range in each of the last three seasons. He would be a welcome addition to virtually any contender.
Furthermore, the Knicks have at least one too many point guards. Moving on from or including either Trey Burke or Emmanuel Mudiay in a Courtney Lee trade would be ideal. While moving on from Burke or Mudiay doesn’t clear future cap space, they could make taking a gamble on Lee more appealing to a team like the Spurs or 76ers.
Players whose trade restrictions are lifted on December 15: Mario Hezonja, Luke Kornet and Noah Vonleh
The 76ers just added Jimmy Butler to their roster in a blockbuster deal on November 11. They are 19-10 overall and 10-4 since adding Butler. They should be happy with their roster and should fight the urge to infuse it with more, new players.
I seriously doubt that the 76ers will make any other major deals. But don’t be surprised if Markelle Fultz’s name remains in trade rumors right up to the trade deadline. As recently as Thursday, Fultz was mentioned as a target of the Detroit Pistons by the Detroit Free Press. Both Fultz and the 76ers seem ready to move on. A Fultz trade seems likelier now than ever before.
Players whose trade restrictions are lifted on December 15: Amir Johnson and J.J. Redick
The Raptors’ major move came over the summer when they dealt DeMar DeRozan and netted Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. The team has played even better this season than they did last year when they were the number one seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. What more do they need? They boast the best record in the league (23-7), they swept the defending champion Golden State Warriors in their season series (including a win Wednesday night sans Leonard) and they own the second-best margin of victory in basketball.
While crazier things have happened, don’t expect Toronto to make any trades. They do need more time together, though. They will continue to improve as they learn each other’s preferences and tendencies. How scary of a thought is that?
Players whose trade restrictions are lifted on December 15: Lorenzo Brown and Greg Monroe
The Atlantic Division is among the most interesting given the depth of top-tier talent. One move can swing the balance of power in the division – and the conference – considerably. It will be interesting to see if any of the division’s juggernauts make any major moves, or if either of the New York-area teams can either nab a star or clear more space.
Make sure to follow along here at Basketball Insiders with the rest of the divisions as well as any trade news and reactions as they happen.