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Ranking the NBA’s Central Division Teams

Joel Brigham ranks the teams in the Central Division and analyzes their offseason moves.

Joel Brigham

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The Central Division isn’t going to be a very fun place for teams to live this year, but that’s sort of been the case for a few years now due in large part to the return of LeBron James and the team that now calls itself the defending NBA champion Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls are playoff contenders more often than not and still look talented enough to get back there in 2017, while upstart squads like the Detroit Pistons and Milwaukee Bucks both appear to be on the rise too. In fact, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to believe that all five of these teams could make the playoffs next spring.

It’s not unreasonable, but it is unlikely, especially with so many other talented organizations elsewhere in the Eastern Conference. Despite all that, it’s worth noting that there’s a very good chance that a lot of the teams in this Central Division preview will be very close in terms of record. Not much separates teams three through five, for example, but there’s got to be a pecking order even with all the ostensible parity. The following is a best preseason guess as to how things will round out in that division for 2016-2017:

5. Milwaukee Bucks

With Greg Monroe in tow, there was talk last offseason that the Milwaukee Bucks would win 50 games. That obviously didn’t happen, as they fell 17 wins short of that accomplishment and regressed dramatically from a team that looked pretty good in the first round of the 2015 NBA playoffs.

Almost everything about their season last year was a bummer, as the things that worked so well for them the year before suddenly stopped being effective. Defensively, the team gambled a ton in their first year under head coach Jason Kidd, and that used to result in a ton of steals and easy fastbreak points. Last season, though, teams figured out what Milwaukee was doing and simply spaced the floor more effectively to negate what was once a smothering defense. It doesn’t matter how long these guys’ arms are (and they are unbelievably long), being in the right place in a defensive rotation is the most important thing and the Bucks didn’t show much ability to do that last year.

They also finished the year dead last in three-point attempts and makes, which in today’s NBA is a death knell for just about any team. Unfortunately, the Bucks don’t look all that different following free agency. Mirza Teletovic, Matthew Dellavedova and rookie Thon Maker each add interesting dimensions to the team, but none of them dramatically boost the team’s defensive prowess or three-point acumen.

That’s not to say there’s no talent on this team. Giannis Antetokounmpo is getting ridiculously close to All-Stardom, and Khris Middleton remains one of the league’s more underrated scorers. Jabari Parker is slowly coming along, and the early returns on Maker are pretty strong too.

The problem is that the team just didn’t make enough dramatic changes this offseason. They’ll be better this year, but getting back to .500 will be an accomplishment in and of itself. For now, this doesn’t have the look of a playoff team, though down the road their future looks as bright (or brighter) than anybody else’s in the Central Division.

4. Detroit Pistons

There is real talent on this roster, and the Detroit Pistons added even more of it this offseason in signing Ish Smith as backup point guard and Boban Marjanovic as part of the frontcourt rotation. Rookie Henry Ellenson was a steal almost two-thirds of the way into the first-round of June’s draft too, but none of these guys are what make the Pistons so good this season. Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson, Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris, Stanley Johnson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, however, finally look like they’re ready to come of age together.

This was a team that finished second in the league in rebounds thanks in large part to Drummond’s contributions as an elite earner in that statistical category, but he, Harris and Aron Baynes combine to create one of the more physical frontcourts in the conference. That isn’t going away, especially with the addition of Marjanovic, who adds even more muscle to that rotation.

Jackson, meanwhile, was on the cusp of All-Stardom himself last season, but he didn’t shoot all that well – and neither did the rest of the roster. As a team they shot only 43.9 percent from the field, which was one of the worst team clips in the league. Still, they’re a team on the up-and-up and could easily make even more strides this season with the group they’ve got in place. Considering this core did make the postseason a year ago as an eight-seed, any sort of improvement would suggest that they’d be right back in the mix again this time around.

(Getting Drummond to listen to that Malcolm Gladwell podcast about Wilt Chamberlain’s underhand free-throw shooting would be some nice offseason homework too. He shot a career-low from the stripe last year, so maybe it’s time to start trying them Rick-Barry-style. He certainly can’t get any worse.)

3. Chicago Bulls

In saying goodbye to Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol, the Bulls ended an era in rather dramatic fashion this summer. But all three decisions were necessary in moving on from a team that had reached the end of its road together. As constructed, they were never going to win a championship, so they decided to try something different for a couple years to stave off a complete rebuild. What they’re trying is kind of weird and confusing, but it is different. There’s certainly no denying that.

The Rose trade brought in Robin Lopez and Jerian Grant, two players whom the Bulls hope will replace some of Rose and Noah’s production. The next big move was to sign Rajon Rondo, days after GM Gar Forman claimed the team traded Rose to get “younger and more athletic,” neither of which describe arguably the most disgruntled point guard in the league. They then wrapped things up with a bang, signing Dwyane Wade away from the Miami HEAT in a shocker that more or less completed the team’s big offseason overhaul.

Rondo, Wade and Jimmy Butler figure to be the team’s best players this year, and a lot has been made this offseason of how poor each of them is at shooting three-pointers. One of the biggest mysteries in the league heading into the new season will be seeing how those three operate alongside one another, as each of them tends to do their best work with the ball in his hands.

There is an outside chance that the Bulls are better than many are giving them credit for, but how well they play depends on how well the rest of the team shoots three-pointers and how quickly some of the younger players on the roster get their acts together. Nikola Mirotic and Doug McDermott, for example, are going to have to be better and more consistent three-point shooters this year, and Bobby Portis is going to have speed along this path toward stardom he seems to be on. Suddenly, the Bulls are kind of an old team, at least at their core, but big seasons from McDermott, Portis, Grant and rookie Denzel Valentine could help make the future at least a little brighter.

As for this season, it seems like a lot to ask for the coach to get significantly better, for Rondo to improve his locker room leadership, for Wade to play like a younger version of himself and for the young guys to player like older versions of themselves. There are a lot of “ifs” that have to come to fruition for Chicago to have a shot at doing anything significant in the offseason. Just getting to the playoffs would feel like an accomplishment, and that feels like a reasonable goal for this group of players. This team has “six-seed” written all over it, but depending on which team they pull in the first round, there’s even an outside chance they could win a playoff series with this group.

2. Indiana Pacers

While the Bulls did some pretty big things in terms of their personnel this summer, no team in the division is more transformed than the Pacers, who not only added a handful of significant new players but a new head coach as well. Just about everybody seems to agree that the sum of all these moving parts is a net gain, however, and it’s hard not to get a little excited about watching how much the team has improved from last year’s overachieving squad.

Indiana finished 2015-16 as a seven-seed in the East, but still managed to take the Toronto Raptors to seven games in that hotly-contested first-round series and even then came up only six points short of a rather impressive upset. Paul George, still the MVP for this team and one of the league’s elite two-way superstars, averaged over 27 PPG in that series and showed in his first full season following that gruesome broken leg that he’s still “got it.” In fact, he may have even more “it” than he did before the injury. The guy looks great and poised to lead the team to another playoff appearance, this time likely much higher than a seven-seed.

He’ll do that with some big changes to the team’s starting lineup. George Hill was traded away in the deal that brought in new point guard Jeff Teague, Ian Mahinmi has moved on to create starter’s minutes for Myles Turner, and the acquisition of Thaddeus Young means Paul George isn’t going to have to hear anything more about playing out of position at the four. The additions of Al Jefferson, Jeremy Evans and Aaron Brooks also look like tremendous values, giving Indiana a much more talented roster than they had a year ago.

The question is what new head coach Nate McMillan will do with all that talent. It was assumed when Frank Vogel was fired that team president Larry Bird would look into an offensive-minded coach more willing to run-and-gun and play smaller than Vogel ever wanted to, but rather than hiring someone like Jeff Hornacek or Mike D’Antoni to make that happen, Bird chose another defense-oriented coach in McMillan. One can only assume that his interview included plenty of reassurances that he’d do whatever Bird needed of him, but that hiring doesn’t suggest a completely new identity this season.

The bevy of new players do though, and there’s little reason to believe they can’t improve on last year’s 45-win campaign. They could be a team that finishes with homecourt advantage in the first round, and they definitely look better equipped to handle a potential rematch with the Toronto Raptors in the postseason, should fans be graced with such a fortuitous pairing.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

LeBron James signed a new three-year, $100 million deal this offseason to stay in Cleveland, so he’ll be back and little else really matters when talking about the defending champion Cavaliers. Long live the King.

Realistically, though, there’s more to this team than LeBron. This never really has been a league where one star could win multiple rings alone, and the explosion of a suddenly very grown up Kyrie Irving in the NBA Finals is a big reason why James now has three rings instead of two. Irving is every bit as important to this team as James, and his health has been key in keeping Cleveland among the league’s most elite teams.

In order to stay elite, they must figure out how to better use Kevin Love, who simply can’t survive another season sitting in the corner waiting impatiently to shoot threes from his little island out there. Tristan Thompson could add another layer to his game as well, and we still don’t know what’s going to happen with J.R. Smith, who would be a huge loss to the team in terms of talent should he opt to play anywhere else next season.

Despite all that, Cleveland is still the best team in the conference, let alone the division, and as long as James and Irving stay healthy that shouldn’t change. Also, who isn’t looking forward to the first-ever season-long divisional rivalry between James and buddy Dwyane Wade?

***

This doesn’t offer much in terms of changes from last year’s final standings, but it feels like a reasonable prediction. We’re due for some surprises, but barring major injuries, this is more or less how things should pan out in the Central Division this year.

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Reviewing the Nurkic Trade: Denver’s Perspective

The Denver Nuggets have been on a miraculous run this postseason, but that doesn’t mean that they’re infallible. Drew Maresca reviews the 2017 trade that sent Jusuf Nurkic from Denver to Portland.

Drew Maresca

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The Denver Nuggets are fresh off of a 114-106 win over the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, pulling within three wins of the franchise’s first trip to the NBA Finals. But what if I told you that the Nuggets’ roster could be even more talented by acting more deliberately in a trade from three years ago?

While Denver won on Tuesday night, they lost a nail bitter on Sunday – for which most of the blame has been pointed at a defensive breakdown by Nuggets’ center Mason Plumlee, who was procured in the aforementioned 2017 trade. What did it cost Denver, you ask? Just Jusuf Nurkic and a first-round pick.

Nurkic was a 2014-15 All-Rookie second team member. He played 139 games over 2.5 seasons in Denver, averaging 7.5 points and 5.9 rebounds in approximately 18 minutes per game. He showed serious promise, but Denver had numerous reasons to pursue a trade: he’d suffered a few relatively serious injuries early in his career (and he’s continued to be injury-prone in Portland), butted heads with head coach Michael Malone and – most importantly – the Nuggets stumbled on to Nikola Jokic.

The Nuggets eventually attempted a twin-tower strategy with both in the starting line-up, but that experiment was short-lived — with Jokic ultimately asking to move to the team’s second unit.

The Nuggets traded Nurkic to the Portland Trail Blazers in February 2017 (along with a first-round pick) in exchange for Plumlee, a second-round pick and cash considerations. Ironically, the first-round pick included in the deal became Justin Jackson, who was used to procure another center, Zach Collins – but more on that in a bit.

As of February 2017, Plumlee was considered the better player of the two. He was averaging a career-high 11 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists through 54 games – but it was clear that at 27, he’d already maximized his talent.

Conversely, Nurkic was only 23 at the time of the trade with significant, untapped upside. In his first few seasons with Portland, Nurkic averaged 15 points and 9.8 rebounds per game, while establishing himself as a rising star. As noted above, injuries have continued to be a problem. Nurkic suffered a compound fracture in his tibia and fibula in March 2019, forcing him to miss a majority of this current campaign. The COVID-19-related play stoppage in March gave Nurkic extra time to get his body right, and he returned to action in July inside the bubble.

And he did so with a vengeance. Nurkic demonstrated superior strength and footwork, and he flashed the dominance that Portland hoped he would develop, posting eight double-doubles in 18 contests. He averaged 17.6 points and 10.3 rebounds per game and while his play dipped a bit in the playoffs – partially due to a matchup with first-team All-NBA star Anthony Davis – he still managed 14.2 points and 10.4 rebounds in the five-game series. So it’s fair to say that Nurkic is still on his way toward stardom.

But the Nuggets are in the conference finals – so all’s well that ends well, right? Not so fast. To his credit, Plumlee is exactly who Denver expected him to be. He’s averaged 7.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game in three seasons with Denver since 2017 – but to be fair, Plumlee is asked to do less in Denver than he had in Portland. Still, it’s fairly obvious that they’re just not that comparable.

Plumlee is a good passer and an above-average defender that’ll compete hard and isn’t afraid to get dirty – but he has limitations. He doesn’t stretch the floor and he is a sub-par free throw shooter (53.5 percent in 2019-20). More importantly, he’s simply not a major offensive threat and his repertoire of moves is limited.

High-level takeaway: Defenses tend to game plan for opponents they view as major threats – Nurkic falls into this category. Other guys pack the stat sheet through putback attempts, open looks and single coverage alongside the guys for whom opposing defenses game plan – that’s a more appropriate description of Plumlee.

On to the wrench thrown in by Zach Collins’ involvement. Statistically, Collins is about as effective as Plumlee – he averaged 7 points and 6.3 rebounds through only 11 games in 2019-20 due to various injuries – and he possesses more upside. The 22-year-old is not as reliable as Plumlee but given his age and skill set, he’s a far better option as a support player playing off the bench. He stretches the floor (36.8 percent on three-point attempts in 2019-20), is an above-average free throw shooter (75 percent this season) and is a good defender. Looking past Nurkic for a moment, would the Nuggets prefer a 22-year-old center that stretches the floor and defends or a 30-year-old energy guy?

Regardless of your answer to that question, it’s hard to argue that Nurkic should have returned more than Plumlee, definitely so when you factor in the first-round pick Denver included. There is obviously more at play: Denver was probably considering trading Nurkic for some time before they acted – did they feel that they could increase his trade value prior to the trade deadline in 2016-17? Maybe. Further, Nurkic and his agent could have influenced the Nuggets’ decision at the 2017 deadline, threatening to stonewall Denver in negotiations.

Had Nurkic been more patient or the Nuggets acted sooner before it became abundantly clear that he was on the move, Denver’s roster could be even more stacked than it is now. Ultimately, the Nuggets have a plethora of talent and will be fine – while it appears that Nurkic found a long-term home in Portland, where he owns the paint offensively. Denver can’t be thrilled about assisting a division rival, but they’re still in an enviable position today and should be for years to come.

But despite that, this deal should go down as a cautionary tale – it’s not only the bottom feeders of the league who make missteps. Even the savviest of front offices overthink deals. Sometimes that works in their favor, and other times it does not.

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NBA Daily: They Guessed Wrong

Matt John reflects on some of the key decisions that were made last summer, and how their disappointing results hurt both team outlooks and players’ legacies.

Matt John

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It doesn’t sound possible, but did you know that the crazy NBA summer of 2019 was, in fact, over a year ago? Wildly, in any normal, non-pandemic season, it all would have been over three months ago and, usually, media days would be right around the corner, but not this time. The 2019-20 NBA season is slated to end sometime in early to mid-October, so the fact that the last NBA off-season was over a year ago hasn’t really dawned on anyone yet. Craziest of all, even though there will still be an offseason, there technically won’t be any summer.

Coronavirus has really messed up the NBA’s order. Of course, there are much worse horrors that COVID-19 has inflicted upon the world – but because of what it’s done to the NBA, let’s focus on that and go back to the summer of 2019. It felt like an eternity, but the Golden State Warriors’ three-year reign had finally reached its end. The Toronto Raptors’ victory over the tyranny that was the Hamptons Five – as battered as they were – made it feel like order had been restored to the NBA. There was more to it than that though.

Klay Thompson’s and Kevin Durant’s season-ending injuries, along with the latter skipping town to join Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn meant two things.

1. Golden State was down for the count
2. Brooklyn’s time wasn’t coming until next year.

A one-year window was open. Even if neither Golden State nor Brooklyn posed the same threat that the former did when it had Kevin Durant, those were two contenders out of commission. If there was a time to go all in, it was in 2019.

Milwaukee certainly seemed to go all in. For the most part.  Malcolm Brogdon’s departure seemed a little odd since he was arguably their best non-Giannis playmaker when they were in crunch time. Not to mention there was nothing really stopping the Bucks from keeping him except for money. Detractors will call out Milwaukee for electing to cheap out by not keeping Brogdon and hence, avoiding the luxury tax. However, there’s more to it than that.

Milwaukee thought it had enough with the core it had on its roster. Coming off the best season they had put up since the eighties, they believed the franchise built the right team to contend. There was an argument that keeping Brogdon may have been overkill with their guard depth – let’s not forget that Donte DiVincenzo did a solid job in Brogdon’s role as the backup facilitator. This would have been more defensible had it not been for Milwaukee picking the wrong guy to let go. That was the indefensible part- electing to keep Eric Bledsoe over Brogdon.

Bledsoe wasn’t necessarily a bad investment. No one’s complaining about an almost 15 point average on 47/34/79 splits or playing individual defense tight enough to get named on the All-Defensive second team. By all accounts, Bledsoe earns his keep. That is until the playoffs. Bledsoe’s postseason woes have been a weight ever since he first entered Milwaukee, and this postseason was more of the same.

Bledsoe’s numbers dwindled to just 11.7 points on 39/25/81 splits, and Milwaukee getting ousted in five games at the hands of Miami made his struggles stand out even more than it had ever been. Bledsoe may be the better athlete and the better defender, but Brogdon’s all-around offensive savvy and his only slight dropoff defensively from Brogdon would have made him a bit more reliable.

Milwaukee guessed wrong when they opted to extend Bledsoe before the postseason last year when they could have waited until that very time to evaluate who to keep around. Now they face a hell of a lot more questions than they did at the end of last season – questions that may have been avoided had they made the right choice.

Now they could have kept both of them, yes, but it’s not totally unreasonable to think that maybe their approach with the luxury tax would have worked and maybe they would still be in the postseason right now had they gone with the homegrown talent. And just maybe, there wouldn’t be nearly as much of this Greek Freak uncertainty.

The Houston Rockets can relate. They got bruised up by a team that everyone thought Houston had the edge on going into the series and then crushed by the Lakers. Now, Mike D’Antoni is gone. The full-time small ball experiment likely did not work out. Since the Rockets emptied most of their assets to bring in Russell Westbrook and Robert Covington, there may not be a route in which they can become better than they presently are.

The mistake wasn’t trading for Russell Westbrook. The mistake was trading Chris Paul.

To be fair, most everybody severely overestimated Chris Paul’s decline. He’s not among the best of the best anymore, but he’s still pretty darn close. He deserved his All-NBA second team selection as well as finishing No. 7 overall in MVP voting. OKC had no business being as good as they were this season, and Paul was the driving force as to why.

For all we know, the previously-assumed tension between Chris Paul and James Harden would have made its way onto the court no matter what. Even so, Houston’s biggest obstacle in the Bay Area had crumbled. If they had just stayed the course, maybe they’re still in the postseason too.

To their credit, none of this may have happened had it not been for the Kawhi Leonard decision. Had he chosen differently, the Thunder never blow it up, and Houston might have very well been the favorite in the Western Conference. Instead, the Rockets took a step back from being in the title discussion to dark horse. But at least they can take pride knowing that they weren’t expected to win it all – the Clippers can’t.

Seeing the Clippers fall well short expectations begs the question if they too got it wrong. The answer is, naturally: of course not. They may have paid a hefty price for Paul George, but the only way they were getting Kawhi Leonard – one of the best players of his generation – was if PG-13 came in the package. As lofty as it was, anyone would have done the same thing if they were in their shoes. They didn’t get it wrong. Kawhi did.

On paper, the Clippers had the most talented roster in the entire league. It seemed like they had every hole filled imaginable. Surrounding Leonard and George was three-point shooting, versatility, a productive second unit, an experienced coach – you name it. There was nothing stopping them from breaking the franchise’s long-lasting curse. Except themselves.

Something felt off about them. They alienated opponents. They alienated each other. At times, they played rather lackadaisically, like the title had already been signed, sealed, and delivered to them. The media all assumed they’d cut the malarkey and get their act together – but that moment never really came. They had their chances to put Denver away, but even if they had, after seeing their struggles to beat them – and to be fair Dallas too – would their day of destiny with the Lakers have really lived up to the hype?

Even if it was never in the cards, one can’t help but wonder what could have happened had Kawhi chosen to stay with the team he won his second title with.

Toronto was the most impressive team in this league this season. They still managed to stay at the top of the east in spite of losing an all-timer like Leonard. That team had every component of a winner except a superstar. They had the right culture for a championship team. Just not the right talent. The Clippers were the exact opposite. They had the right talent for a championship team but not the right culture. That’s why the Raptors walked away from the postseason feeling proud of themselves for playing to their full potential while the Clippers writhed in disappointment and angst over their future.

In the end, everyone mentioned here may ultimately blame what happened to their season on the extenuating circumstances from the pandemic. The Bucks’ chemistry never fully returned when the Bubble started. Contracting COVID and dealing with quad problems prevented Westbrook from reviving the MVP-type player he was before the hiatus. As troubling as the Clippers had played, the extra time they would have had to work things out in a normal season was taken away from them.

For all we know, next year will be a completely different story. The Rockets, Bucks, and Kawhi may ultimately have their faith rewarded for what they did in the summer of 2019 – but that will only be mere speculation until the trio can change the story.

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Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards

Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.

David Yapkowitz

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We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.

The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.

With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.

The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.

Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old

Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.

He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.

Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.

Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old

Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.

He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.

Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.

Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old

Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.

He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.

One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.

Honorable Mentions:
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old

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