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NBA Daily: Grading The Offseason – Minnesota Timberwolves

At first, the future seemed bright as could be. But now, outside of Karl-Anthony Towns, it couldn’t be any murkier for the Timberwolves, writes Matt John.

Matt John

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After a whirlwind month of action, the basketball-watching world has approached the most boring month of the year in the NBA — so looking over each and every team’s offseason is more imperative than ever. In this edition of “Grading the Offseason”, we’re taking a peek at the suddenly-erratic Minnesota Timberwolves.

Remember when the Timberwolves had the most exciting future in the league? Boy, a lot can change in just two years.

Minnesota, of course, was supposed to be the next big thing, all thanks to one of the most promising young duos in the league in Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. Back then, they had an accomplished head coach calling the shots in Tom Thibodeau. Plus, adding an All-Star player in Jimmy Butler meant the future was here in the midwest.

Looking at where this team is at today, 2017 seems so very long ago. Butler and Thibodeau are gone, while Wiggins isn’t panning out as well as he had once projected. Towns has come into his own, but the Wolves need more than just him. Suddenly, more questions than answers regarding Minnesota’s future have arisen.

How exactly did the franchise get here after everything appeared to be going so well? Let’s examine.

Overview

It goes without saying, but things could not have started out worse for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2018-19. It’s one thing when your star player wants out — but when he demands a trade just as training camp is about to begin, that puts everything out of whack with very little time to put it all back in order.

Despite making the playoffs, it only took one year for the Jimmy Butler situation to turn sour, holding absolutely nothing back when he made his trade request. So much drama went on during the Timberwolves’ training camp that, if filmed, it could have made for a very entertaining episode of Hard Knocks.

In any situation like that, obliging a trade request should be done ASAP. Instead, Thibodeau, for some reason, decided to drag it out 13 games into the season, a move that undoubtedly affected the team’s psyche. The Timberwolves went 4-9 before Butler was sold off to Philadelphia for Robert Covington and Dario Saric.

Technically, Minnesota improved from there by going 32-37 the rest of the way — but their 36-46 season overall was unremarkable.

As a whole, the roster didn’t leave any lasting impressions, but Towns — now a budding superstar  — played the best basketball of his career. At first glance, Towns’ traditional statistics seem typical, but his per-36 averages tell a more in-depth story.

Per-36 statistics are flimsy numbers, especially so when used for players whose teams wouldn’t dare give that many minutes on a nightly basis. In Towns’ case, it’s different.

Since being coached by Thibodeau, Towns ranked fifth in minutes played on average with 37 — naturally, second behind Wiggins — in 2016-17, then 13th the following year with 35.6. Both Thibodeau and his replacement, Ryan Saunders, decreased Towns’ minutes to 33.1 this past season. When you factor in his numbers from that into per-36, Towns averaged career-bests in points (26.6), rebounds (13.5), and assists (3.7).

He also averaged a career-high in turnovers (3.4), but that probably had to do with the higher usage rate he had — almost 29 percent — in fewer minutes. With Butler gone, Towns took the bigger role in the Wolves’ offense and ran with it. With a higher number of shots, Towns still maintained his usual field goal percentage, almost 52 percent, and his solid three-point percentage of 40 percent.

With the fifth year of the KAT era swiftly approaching, Minnesota knows by now that he’ll be worth every penny of that contract extension that will take effect next season. Unfortunately, they can’t say the same for their other former No. 1 overall pick, Andrew Wiggins.

Wiggins continues to boggle fans everywhere on how far his value has fallen as a player. Just two years ago, the guy was averaging over 23 points on 45/35/76 splits. His stats were bound to decline when the team acquired Butler but, since that departure, Wiggins has failed to regain his old form.

18.1 points on 41/34/70 splits is just an odd regression for someone who is only 24 years old and possesses the physical advantages that Wiggins does. Still, he hasn’t been a total net negative for Minnesota — in fact, the Timberwolves are plus-1.1 with Wiggins on the floor. But when you’re paying somebody almost $25.5 million, that person needs to make a bigger impact. “Maple Jordan” has shown he has talent, but the less progress he makes, the more accurate the Jeff Green comparisons become.

Besides them, the next significant storyline was the play of Derrick Rose. Though he only played 51 games, Rose had his most efficient season as a shooter, sporting a true shooting percentage of 55.7. Rose has never been hailed as a three-point shooter, but on almost three attempts a game, the long-time veteran hit on 37 percent from distance.

His prime may be behind him, but this new version of D-Rose could hopefully make him a more vital player for his next team, even if it’s not with the Timberwolves. With all that he’s gone through, seeing him being in contention for the Sixth Man of the Year award tugs at the heartstrings.

As for the rest of the team, Covington put up some of the best numbers in his career in Minnesota — but most of his season was cut short because of an ongoing knee injury. Dario Saric performed adequately in his role, but his minutes took a hit after being traded from Philadelphia. Jeff Teague spent half the season on the shelf and Tyus Jones continued to be under-utilized.

Even still, lots of turnover and injuries went on in Minnesota. This time around, regardless of results, the Timberwolves won’t need to endure the same amount of drama this coming season than they did in this last one — and that, ultimately, is a good start.

Offseason

The Timberwolves wasted no time getting to work this offseason. On draft night, they traded Saric as well as the No. 11 overall pick to Phoenix for the sixth selection. With it, Minnesota took Jarrett Culver, whose high draft position stemmed from his all-around game.

Rumor had it that the real target they had in mind when they made the trade was Darius Garland. Whether that’s true or not, Culver has the potential to be a good fit next to Towns. His three-point shot definitely needs work, but his defense, versatility and playmaking abilities should make him a productive player from the start for the Timberwolves.

Since Culver sat out of Summer League, we won’t know for sure what he can do until the season starts. This trade also signified that the Timberwolves weren’t interested in committing to Saric, who was going to fetch some change and then some next offseason.

Next came free agency. Minnesota’s plans started and ended with D’Angelo Russell. The fit seemed flawless. Russell was coming off of a remarkable season, he would be a phenomenal second-in-command next to their center and, even better, he and Towns are best friends. What’s not to like?

With Brooklyn wrapped up in Kyrie Irving-Kevin Durant rumors, Minnesota seemed poised to swoop in with a big-time offer sheet. So, until it wasn’t, Russell to the Timberwolves seemed not only feasible but nearly inevitable. And yet, as things currently stand, Russell won’t be donning a Timberwolves uniform this coming season. Golden State kiboshed Minnesota’s plans by getting a Russell in a sign-and-trade, a fine replacement for the injured Klay Thompson too.

The heartbreak over Minnesota’s failure to obtain Russell overshadowed a summer that was full of savvy moves. On the cheap, they signed and traded for Jake Layman, added Noah Vonleh and Jordan Bell and traded for Shabazz Napier and Treveon Graham as the third party in the aforementioned Russel deal, all of whom can be solid rotation players that cost $3.6 million or less each.

If the Timberwolves had just reeled in the big fish, their offseason would have been a wild success. Since they didn’t, their roster still has questions as far as how high the ceiling actually is.

PLAYERS IN: Jarrett Culver, Jake Layman, Noah Vonleh, Jordan Bell, Jaylen Nowell, Treveon Graham, Shabazz Napier, Naz Reid, Jordan McLaughlin (Two-Way)

PLAYERS OUT: Derrick Rose, Tyus Jones, Taj Gibson, Jerryd Bayless, Anthony Tolliver, Mitchell Creek, C.J. Williams, Jared Terrell

What’s Next

Over the past few years, Minnesota has had the luxury of waiting for their two young starlets to blossom. In that time, one has come along nicely while the other hasn’t. With Towns’ extension kicking in this season, the Timberwolves are now on the clock for the next five years to build a better team around him before any potential trade request.

Towns has pledged his loyalty to the franchise and that shouldn’t be questioned. For now at least. Something that Glen Taylor and co. should keep in mind: Anthony Davis and LeBron James shared a similar sentiment with their first teams. Both wound up leaving because neither of those teams succeeded in building a playoff contender around them. It’s on management to do its best to avoid the same fate.

With the moves they made, the Timberwolves didn’t get worse per se, but they didn’t get better either. Where they finish depends on how they compare to their competition in their conference. What would tip the scale in their favor would be if they somehow managed to get their hands on Russell, but he’s ineligible to be moved until later on next season.

Even though they may have missed out on acquiring D-Lo, many are skeptical that Russell lasts the season with the Warriors. If the doubters are correct, expect Minnesota to bid like crazy for his services.

But that’s getting ahead of ourselves. For now, if Minnesota wants to avoid a repeat of Kevin Love, they have to do everything in their power to remove the un from the uncertainty they have engulfed themselves with.

OFFSEASON GRADE: C

Matt John is a staff writer for Basketball Insiders. He is currently a Utah resident, but a Massachusetts native.

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NBA Daily: Reliable Burks Thriving In Long Sought-After Opportunity

Spencer Davies takes a look at Alec Burks’ outstanding start to the season with the Golden State Warriors.

Spencer Davies

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If you go back and look at the 2011 NBA Draft, you’ll see big names all around.

Champions such as Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson and Kyrie Irving. All-Stars like Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker and Nikola Vucevic.

19th overall pick Tobias Harris turned out to be a maximum contract player. “Mr. Irrelevant” was Isaiah Thomas, a player that made an All-NBA team in a near-MVP season.

But there’s still time for another man to prove himself as one of the best talents in his class and, so far this year, he has given us a reason to believe he will.

Once plagued by injuries and often dealt with inconsistent roles, Alec Burks finally has the opportunity he’d been seeking — and this time around, he’s doing the stepping up instead of being the one on the sideline.

Last night against the Memphis Grizzlies, Burks exploded for 29 points, 8 rebounds and 2 assists, plus a block and a steal. It’s the most he’s scored in a single game since Dec. 2017 and the fourth game where he’s eclipsed the 20-point mark this season already.  And in the nights that he’s played over 30 minutes, he’s averaging 23.6 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists.

While that is an impressive accomplishment in its own right, the way Burks is going about getting his points is the real encouraging story. Healthy and fearless, he’s attacking with purpose and being rewarded with results, one way or another.

Burks is drawing fouls at a high rate with his aggressiveness. He’s getting to the line at will and knocking down his free throws, an astounding 23-for-25 over the last three games. A knack for disrupting opposing offenses, he’s been able to capitalize on the other end with a team-leading 5.5 points off turnovers per 100 possessions. That would also explain his success in transition, where he’s made a living on the open floor.

Don’t mistake Burks as a one-tool guy, either. He’s one of Golden State’s top threats in the pick-and-roll, using his dual-threat ability to either penetrate or pull up from distance. Trailing just Paul George, Andrew Wiggins and James Harden, the veteran combo guard is deadly off handoffs with 1.67 points per possession in such situations.

In addition, Burks has had a noticeable impact on the defensive end. The Warriors suffer when he’s not on the floor, as the opposition’s effective field goal percentage is 8.4 percent better when he sits. According to Cleaning The Glass, that ranks in the 99th percentile in the league. Furthermore, those teams are scoring 120.3 points per 100 possessions if he’s on the bench.

The 28-year-old has been a top-10 defender when it comes to guarding his assignments coming off screens, too, holding those players to 33 percent from the field.

Watching Burks operate with a clean bill of health is a gift from the basketball gods who have been cruel to him over the last three years of his career. It’s a shame that this chance has been given to him with his teammates on the mend, but how many times has he been on the other side of that battle?

Selected by the Utah Jazz at No. 12 eight years ago, Burks started his NBA career on a high note. He was a part of a franchise built around Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson, playing a complementary bench role while developing with the likes of Gordon Hayward and Enes Kanter. Then, Trey Burke was added to the mix along with Rudy Gobert in Burks’ third season, one where he appeared in a career-high 78 games.

That following year when he signed an extension, things took a downturn. Already having to adjust to a new head coach in Quin Snyder, Burks began having shoulder issues and played through them until electing to have surgery in late December. The Jazz also brought in Rodney Hood and Dante Exum as rookies.

Burks came back from the setback and, again, had been on the floor consistently in the 2015-16 campaign — except the injury bug decided to rear its ugly head in another way. Almost one year to the date that his season ended with shoulder surgery, he suffered a fractured left fibula that once again cut his year short. Snakebitten by misfortune in way too many occasions, his role in Utah never really was the same. His minutes diminished, his rhythm was off and Snyder had his backcourt rotations set.

Utah ultimately parted ways with Burks via a trade to the Cleveland Cavaliers last year, and while he did show flashes of his abilities and even snuck in a game-winning dunk during that 34-game stint, it wasn’t long before the organization moved on. The Cavaliers flipped him to the Sacramento Kings, where he had 15 DNPs and played less than 10 minutes per game.

Burks admitted at Warriors media day that being traded twice after spending seven years with one organization took a toll on him and his family. By the same token, he also knows that things happen for a reason.

Originally signing with the Oklahoma City Thunder this past summer, Burks pivoted to Golden State because he wanted to reevaluate his following the trades of Paul George and Russell Westbrook. He was sold on the Warriors’ team culture and an opportunity to play for a winner. Unfortunately, Stephen Curry went down with a major injury early this season, D’Angelo Russell is out for a couple of weeks and Draymond Green has missed some time as well — so championship aspiration is aiming high.

At the same time, the Warriors need a veteran to show young guys the ropes. Steve Kerr needs a guy to produce at a high-level to keep up with a fast-moving, deep Western Conference. Burks is proving each night that this group can rely on him.

That first-round pick all those years ago with so much promise, so many obstacles to overcome is now on the other side of the spectrum. The chance he’s been starving for is staring him right in the face.

Believe that Burks won’t take it for granted.

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Hungry HEAT Destined To Be Dark Horse In East

The Miami HEAT are off to a hot start at 9-3. Jordan Hicks details why this may actually be legitimate and why the HEAT have a chance to go deep in the playoffs.

Jordan Hicks

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After Jimmy Butler was acquired by the Miami HEAT this past offseason, everyone expected them to be a solid team in the Eastern Conference. They weren’t expected to go deep in the playoffs, and very few people had them pegged as one of the league’s elite teams. But 12 games into the season, the HEAT are 9-3…and they might be — dare we say — really, really good.

The crazy part about how their team is playing together is all the moving pieces that make it work. Butler is the leader of the team — both in general and in scoring — but he’s only averaging 18.4 points. They have six guys averaging double-digit points, another at 9.7 and three more all above 7 points per game.

As a team, they are number one in the league in field goal percentage, third in three-point shooting, fifth in assists per game and first in steals per game. They are tied with the Toronto Raptors for the fourth-best plus-minus.

Looking into more advanced statistics, they are fifth in the NBA in net rating, helped greatly by their current defensive rating of 101.2. They are second in the league in assist percentage and first in both effective and true field goal percentage.

Of their nine wins, two of them came on the road against the Milwaukee Bucks and the surprising Phoenix Suns, and another came at home in the complete demolition of the Houston Rockets. Their three losses were all the road against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers — three games you’d almost expect them to lose.

This isn’t a take that’s expecting you to believe the HEAT are the real deal based solely on their wins and losses up to this point in the season, but the fact they are completely taking care of business shows that Erik Spoelstra may be well on his way to one of his best head coaching seasons since the departure of LeBron James.

Just what is making this team so good? Let’s start by highlighting their stingy defense, the main driver behind their early-season success.

Butler is leading the entire NBA in steals with 2.8 per game. He is their leader on that end and a large part as to why they’re so successful. They are currently leading the NBA in steals as a team. This is great for a very obvious reason. It takes possessions away from the opposing offense and, in many cases, leads to an easy look in transition on the other end. The most efficient way to score is a wide-open dunk or layup, and fast breaks usually turn into that. The HEAT are averaging a tick under 10 steals per game, so that is plenty of looks their opponents won’t get off.

A huge breakout player for the HEAT this year is Bam Adebayo. Ever since his rookie year, you got the feeling he’d turn out to be solid, but his third season in the league finally feels like Adebayo’s time to shine. He’s averaging 13.9 points, 10.5 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks. Guess how many other players in the NBA are putting up a similar stat line? Just one. His name is Giannis Antetokounmpo, you may have heard of him before.

In a league that is being overrun with efficient scoring, the glue guy is a key piece to any championship team that often goes unnoticed. Take Draymond Green, for example. You remember Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, and Klay Thompson, but Green played as big of a role as any of those guys in bringing rings back to Oracle. Adebayo has a chance to take an incredibly large leap this season, and some are even calling him an early candidate for the Most Improved Player award. No big deal, just HEAT-royalty Dwayne Wade.

Most impressive is where Adebayo currently sits in box plus-minus. This leaderboard is usually nestled with all the top players in the league, and Adebayo currently sits at No. 8. It’d be crazy if he stayed there all season, but the fact he’s up there already 13 games into the season is pretty impressive.

On the offensive end, things seem to be clicking on many different cylinders. As previously mentioned they have six, basically seven guys in double figures. Two of them happen to be rookies, and one of those rookies happens to be undrafted. That undrafted guy, Kendrick Nunn, is making a whole lot of noise.

He’s second in per-game scoring behind Rookie of the Year favorite Ja Morant, and he leads all rookies in steals per game. He’s first in made field goals and first in total steals, too. He leads all rookies in overall plus-minus. He’s second on the HEAT in points per game behind Jimmy Butler and second in steals per game, as well. He’s shooting well from the field as well as from behind the three, where he’s tied with Coby White for most threes made out of all rookies. He’s shooting the three at 38.4 percent which is killer for a rookie considering he’s shooting over six of them per game.

The other rookie standout, Tyler Herro, is averaging 13.3 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. He’s a great spot-up shooter, but is capable of creating his own looks, too. Of the rookies on the roster, he’ll likely be the better shooter in the long run, and he’s shown every bit of why he deserved to be drafted in the lottery at No. 13.

The HEAT have many other players contributing in diverse ways, some big and some small. Meyers Leonard is shooting over 60 percent from three on two attempts per night. Justise Winslow was pacing the team in nightly plus-minus before his concussion. Goran Dragic — a savvy veteran who is somehow glossed over in this group — is scoring 16 per game on very efficient marks. One could go on and on about all the talent this Miami team has deep on its roster.

Listen, there is still an eternity left before the playoffs start, and Jimmy Butler has shown previous incapabilities of putting the team first. But the HEAT seem to be off to an incredibly productive start. Most wouldn’t pencil them in as a championship team, but with all the parity in the league today, they absolutely have an argument to be considered the top dark horse.

The Miami HEAT have plenty of pieces to make a deep run in the playoffs. Apart from Butler, they are definitely lacking a superstar or two, but they make up for it with early-season continuity, solid coaching and overall execution on both ends of the floor. With all the talent on their roster at almost every poisition, don’t be surprised if the HEAT end up coming out of the East.

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NBA Daily: Philadelphia Castoffs Finding Success Elsewhere

After failing to make it with the Philadelphia 76ers, three players have stood out by gaining traction with new franchises as solid contributors. Chad Smith sheds some light on how these individuals have changed the narrative of their careers.

Chad Smith

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Trust The Process.

That was the slogan that the Philadelphia 76ers plastered on billboards and etched into the minds of their fans. They stressed patience to their fan base and were transparent about the entire plan. The tanking of not just games — but seasons — delivered the Sixers’ front office what they so desired: draft picks.

More valuable than cash considerations and better than expiring contracts, the draft picks offered an unknown quantity. Hope and potential for greatness were the selling points for their dynamic plan. It was easy to convince anyone and everyone that would listen. At the time, it appeared to be a solid plan, so long as everyone could stomach the losing.

While the exciting element of a draft pick is the unknown, that has also proven to be a double-edged sword. If selecting the right talent was easy, Michael Jordan would have never worn a Chicago Bulls uniform. Kevin Durant would have never played in Seattle and the Detroit Pistons probably would have rather had one of Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony or Chris Bosh instead of Darko Milicic.

Maybe that wasn’t the plan, though. Perhaps the plan was just to get as many bites out of the apple as possible and hope to strike gold on a couple of the picks. If indeed that was the plan, it would be difficult to argue that it didn’t work. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are already All-Star players and the faces of the franchise.

Philadelphia finally molded into a playoff team during the 2017-2018 season. The organization quickly went to work on tweaking the roster, trying to find the right pieces to fit this puzzle together. But outside of its two cornerstones over the past five years, there were three notable players that were labeled as busts or clearly were not going to make it with the Sixers. And many wondered if these guys would even still be in the league in the coming months.

These guys needed a fresh start. They needed a reset button on their careers. Now, they appear to be in the right environment with the right people bringing out the best in them. They have thrived in their new roles and, ultimately, have changed the narrative of their careers.

Markelle Fultz, Orlando Magic

The most obvious success story seems to be playing out right before our eyes. The Sixers selected Fultz with the No. 1 overall pick in 2017, but it turned sideways very quickly. After captivating college basketball fans at Washington, expectations were extremely high as he prepared for his rookie season.

The Orlando Magic have been starving for a star point guard for quite some time. They took a gamble on the 21-year old, and it is paying off in a big way. Fultz being used as a combo guard alongside a strong and youthful roster seems to be an ideal fit. He is getting to the basket and finishing strong. He is also knocking down his free throws (82 percent) and collecting steals (1.3 per game) at a high rate.

Heading into tonight’s game in Toronto, Fultz is averaging just under 11 points and 3.1 assists per game. He had an effective field goal percentage of 42 percent in his 33 total games as a member of the 76ers. Through 13 games this season, he’s upped that to 51.4.

Both Embiid and Simmons missed their entire first season in Philly and turned into All-Stars. This small sample size is just that, but things are definitely trending in the right direction for Fultz to develop into the caliber of player everyone thought he would be when he was drafted. The mental hurdle has been cleared, and his confidence seems to have been been restored.

Jahlil Okafor, New Orleans Pelicans

The 2015 NBA Draft had some exceptional talent. Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell went just before Okafor, but many people thought that was a mistake. While the former third overall pick won’t ever reach the same pinnacle as those two in his career, he has been a tremendous success story nonetheless over the past two years.

After three seasons of below-average production in Philly, Okafor was traded to the Brooklyn Nets where he was seeking a fresh start. His 26-game stint there did not yield positive results, and it appeared as though the promising big man’s future was near the end. In the summer of 2018, Okafor signed a minimum salary contract with the New Orleans Pelicans. He remains on a partially-guaranteed deal, but is outperforming that so far this season.

With so many athletic wings and a bevy of guards in New Orleans, Okafor has found the perfect role as the man in the middle. No longer seeming rushed, the big man is patient with the ball and has the ability to finish himself or find the open guy on the perimeter. He is much more efficient shooting the ball and is averaging 1.1 blocks per game.

Despite suffering an ankle injury that has him temporarily sidelined, Okafor has been playing well. With the absence of rookie sensation Zion Williamson, New Orleans has needed his solid play to keep the train rolling. He won’t be what many had envisioned him becoming after leaving Duke, but Okafor has carved out a nice role for himself in the league.

Richaun Holmes, Sacramento Kings

Another member of Philly’s 2015 draft class has found his opportunity in a different zip code. Despite playing 156 games for the Sixers, Holmes was never really given the opportunity to become a vital role player for the team. He started just 20 of those games and played less than 17 minutes a night. With so many injuries in Sacramento, that opportunity has come for him, and he has stepped up and excelled in his new role.

The overall numbers for Holmes have risen quite a bit, but the blocks are what stand out the most. Through 13 games this season, the active big man is averaging nearly as many blocks per game (1.4) as the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Rudy Gobert. He is averaging career-high numbers in virtually every statistical category.

The former second-round pick has always been known as an energy guy, and he is thriving off of that on this young and hungry Kings squad. His rebounding has been tremendous, especially on offense. Sacramento ranks in the top half of the league in second-chance points, largely due to Holmes being so active on the glass.

Whereas many of the trades that the 76ers executed involved more talent coming back in return, this one was different. Philly traded Holmes to the Phoenix Suns in the summer of 2018 for $1 million. Nearly a year later, Holmes signed a two-year deal with the Kings for $9.77 million. Consider that money well-earned by Holmes, and well spent by Sacramento.

For every Embiid and Simmons that comes along, there are guys like Michael Carter-Williams, Nerlens Noel and Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot. What is important for these guys is to embrace a fresh start and a different role with a new team.

By doing so, they can assure themselves of a future in the league as opposed to watching from the sidelines.

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