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NBA Daily: Grading The Offseason – Sacramento Kings

Drew Maresca examines the Sacramento Kings’ offseason as Basketball Insiders’ “Grading the Offseason” continues.

Drew Maresca

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The NBA offseason has been as exciting this year as ever before. And no states’ team(s) have experienced more excitement and change than California. Kevin Durant fled Oakland, and the Lakers and Clippers both upgraded their rosters thanks to trades and free agent signings. But the summer was less eventful for California’s third team – the Sacramento Kings.

Basketball Insiders resumed its Grading The Offseason series this week. Let’s continue by assessing the Kings.

Overview

The Kings finished 2018-19 with a 39-43 record, good for ninth best in the Western Conference. They made good progress behind Most Improved Player candidate De’Aaron Fox and rookie standout Marvin Bagley III. The Kings hope to take another step forward in 2019-20, which is very doable given that their two most important players are only 21 and 20 years old, respectively.

But improvement and entry into the playoffs are not mutually exclusive. Since the Western Conference now features even more talent and parity, the Kings could technically improve and end next season with a better record while failing to qualify for the playoffs.

And while incremental progress is often times overlooked, improvement is the name of the game. The Kings must focus on creating synergy under new head coach Luke Walton. But their progress is contingent on internal improvements considering their lack of a first-round pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. Fortunately, there are a lot of players on the Kings’ roster that could potentially show considerable improvement.

Let’s start by assessing their leader and floor general. Fox appears poised to compete for an All-Star spot in his third season. His progress will mostly pace the Kings’ improvements. He is clearly a star in the making and expectations are sky high for his third year in the league. He took a big step in his sophomore season, and the Kings will contend for the playoffs despite the cut-throat competition out West if he takes a another step forward this season.

Bagley’s rookie season was surprisingly successful. That is not to say that expectations were low; however, his build and relatively short wingspan led to some souring on him before he played a single game in the league. And yet, Bagley averaged 14.9 points and 7.6 rebounds in only 25.3 minutes per game. But Bagley should improve, too. And if he takes a big leap forward, that further improve to the Kings’ outlook.

Buddy Hield is another important piece. The 26-year-old averaged 20.7 points per game last season on 46 percent shooting and 43 percent from three-point range. Hield puts significant pressure on opposing defenses by moving well without the ball. He recognizes that he must continue to apply pressure on defenses by getting to the free throw line, demonstrated in a summer league interview this offseason. If he can simply continue putting pressure on opposing defenses in new and different ways, the Kings’ offense instantly becomes significantly more dynamic.

The Kings will also rely on Bogdan Bogdanovic. The 26-year-old guard is still getting acclimated to the NBA with only two seasons under his belt, but he has acclimated well thus far with career averages of 12.9 points, 3.5 assists and 3.1 rebounds over 148 career games.

At only 21 years old, Harry Giles is still very much a mystery. His lone season at Duke was affected by a knee injury suffered during his senior year in high school. He was then held out for his entire rookie season, too, as a precaution, giving him proper time to heal and rehabilitate his knee. Therefore, last season was ostensibly his rookie season, in which Giles seemed to get significantly more comfortable as the season progressed. He averaged 7 points and 3.8 rebounds per game, posting six games of 10 or more points in his final 11 contests.  He is fairly versatile given his size (6-foot-10) and is an above average passer. Like Fox and Bagley, Giles is expected to demonstrate improvement, which can be a huge buoy to the Kings’ roster.

To summarize, much of the Kings’ hopes are rooted in internal improvements. But that’s not to say that the offseason didn’t affect their outlook.

Offseason

The Kings began the offseason by firing head coach Dave Joerger and extending vice president of basketball operations and general manager, Vlade Divac. They then filled their coaching vacancy by hiring Luke Walton only a few days after being let go by the Los Angeles Lakers. But timing was not on the Kings’ side, as their new coach quickly found himself dealing with a sexual assault allegation only a few days after accepting the position. Everyone around the Kings organization is hopeful that Walton is exonerated, but there are substantial implications from any legal blowback for the Kings’ immediate future.

Beyond coaching and management announcements, the Kings’ biggest need this offseason was consistency – and they mostly achieved that goal when they re-signed Harrison Barnes.

After taking Barnes off the Mavericks’ hands in February via trade, the Kings surprisingly came to terms with Barnes on a 4-year, $85 million deal. And while the Kings were criticized for overspending on Barnes’ contract extension, it was important for them to lock up their fourth-leader scorer and one of two only players on the team who owns an NBA championship ring.

The addition of Trevor Ariza was another important step. While the 34-year-old is a long shot to win the starting job over Barnes, he still posted strong numbers last season. Further, his poise and familiarity with winning are valuable to a team with only two other 30-year-olds currently on their roster.

As far as the 2019 NBA Draft is concerned, the Kings’ first-round pick was sent to Boston as part of a 2015 trade. The Kings were still relatively active, though – drafting Justin James 40th overall, swapping the 47th pick for the 55th pick – with which they took Kyle Guy – and selecting Vanja Marinkovic with the 60th pick.

None of their draftees looks ready to make major contributions right away, but the 2019 NBA Draft appears light on superstar talent, yet deep with role players. And James, Guy and Marinkovic could all play a real role for the Kings as soon as this season.

PLAYERS IN: Justin James, Kyle Guy, Vanja Marinkovic, Corey Joseph, Dewayne Dedmon, Richaun Holmes, Tyler Lydon, Trevor Ariza, Harrison Barnes (re-signed)

Players Out: Willie Cauley-Stein, Troy Williams, Alec Burks, Corey Brewer, Kosta Koufos, BJ Johnson

What’s Next?

The Kings have a relatively bright future. Unfortunately for them, there is ample talent out West. The Kings will struggle to qualify for the playoffs, but that does not mean there isn’t a chance they make it. And what’s more, not making the playoffs in 2019-20 is not an absolute failure. The Kings should gauge how well their core plays with one another and how their players progress from last season and over the course of this one.

But they would prefer to be in the playoffs and the center position will present the biggest challenges for the Kings in 2019-20. They will probably start Dewayne Dedmon on opening night with Giles and Richaun Holmes as backups. Dedmon played well last season, matching a career best in scoring (10.8 points) in 25.1 minutes per game. He has a good motor and shoots an above-average percentage from deep (38.2 percent). However, he is far from an established star and his backup support is lacking.

Giles is still a bit of a question mark given his injury history – and at 6-foot-10, 240 pounds, is a tad undersized, too. And while Holmes has a good motor, he has bounced around the association in his four professional seasons. They will struggle against the preeminent centers in the league.

Still, the Kings’ season will be decided by how much their core develops and how it responds to Coach Walton’s message. Specifically, if Fox, Hield, Bogdanovic, Bagley and Giles all advance their games and adhere to Walton’s strategy, the Kings should be highly competitive and surprise a number of teams along the way.

Ariza was a nice addition and will serve as a needed veteran presence and locker room leader; however, without improvements from the aforementioned core, the Kings could be right where they were at the end of 2018-19.

OFFSEASON GRADE: B-

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NBA Daily: Where Does John Collins Really Fit?

Since the Atlanta Hawks and John Collins were unable to agree to an extension in the offseason, rumors have swirled about the 23-year old big and his future. Ariel Pacheco breaks down which teams might be the best fit for Collins should he and Atlanta decide to part ways.

Ariel Pacheco

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John Collins has been the subject of trade rumors all season long. The Atlanta Hawks are reportedly seeking a “lottery level pick” in return for the talented big man. With Collins set to be a restricted free agent this upcoming offseason, any team that trades for him must also be willing to either offer an extension that will likely be north of $100 million or lose him for nothing.

This cuts down the list of potential suitors to just a handful of teams. These teams will have to be willing to part with draft capital and/or young players. Here’s a look at where John Collins could fit in. 

San Antonio Spurs

Few teams are as good of a fit for Collins as San Antonio. The Spurs are off to a surprising start at 16-11 and the sixth seed in the Western Conference. That said, they are in desperate need of a floor-spacing big with some upside and Collins is just that. With the 35-year-old LaMarcus Aldridge set to be a free agent and his play dropping off, Collins can slide right in as the team’s big of the future.

The Spurs have multiple young guys and their draft picks. The question is how much would they be willing to part with. There are a couple of iterations that the Spurs could send out to Atlanta. A trade centered around Derrick White and a protected pick could be something that interests the Hawks. They might also be interested in a deal that includes Lonnie Walker, salary filler and a protected pick. Again, it depends on how far San Antonio would be interested in going in their pursuit of Collins.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have quietly been a competitive team this season, possibly more so than they want to be. With a young star they certainly want to build around in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Collins would represent an intriguing co-star to lead the franchise into the future. At the very least, the fit between the two would be beautiful to watch. Oklahoma City has a number of young, high-upside players they like in Lugentz Dort, Isaiah Roby, Darius Bazley and Theo Maledon. Adding in Collins to compliment them would significantly accelerate their rebuild.

The Thunder also happen to have a war chest stuffed with draft capital. They have 16 first-round picks and 13 second-round picks through the 2027 draft. It’ll be impossible for them to select a player with every one of those picks and, while they are unlikely to just offer them recklessly, using some of that capital to swing a trade for a young talent with All-Star potential in John Collins would be a great use of resources. 

Cleveland Cavaliers

Yes, Cleveland just added Jarrett Allen. But that shouldn’t preclude them from a potential move for Collins.

The Cavaliers have struggled after a nice start to the season. While they seem to have settled on a core centered around Allen, Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, they are in need of a frontcourt scorer who can space the floor for their guards. Collins might prove the perfect fit, as he can play alongside Allen and should prove a threat with both Sextan and Garland in the pick-and-roll. And, given his upside, the Cavaliers’ future would shine even brighter.

The difficulty here is finding a deal that works for both sides. If a deal were to happen it would more than likely have to be a three-team deal. The Cavaliers just aren’t a natural trading partner with the Hawks. A third team would be able to give both sides what they are looking for. Cleveland could also bet on Collins not signing an extension with a new team; in that event, they would be better off waiting until free-agency to offer him a deal. 

Sacramento Kings

Sacramento struck gold in this past year’s draft with Tyrese Haliburton. Alongside De’Aaron Fox, the Kings have their backcourt of the future firmly in place. Marvin Bagley and Buddy Hield have both been rumored to be unhappy in Sacramento, involving one or both of them in a trade for Collins could give the Kings a lot more upside and add some frontcourt scoring. 

This is another situation where, given their personnel, the Kings and Hawks aren’t ideal trade partners and would probably need to involve a third team. Sacramento has shown some growth this season and an upgrade in talent could help make their playoff aspirations more attainable. The Kings own all of their first-rounders and should look to be aggressive in improving their roster.

Boston Celtics

Pursuing a Collins deal is unlikely for Boston, who has shown to be very reluctant in parting with future assets in recent seasons. Still, Collins would add a pick-and-roll threat Boston just doesn’t have. The Celtics would then be able to build around an extremely strong core of Collins, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

The Celtics would have to pay Collins in the offseason, however, making them even more unlikely to swing a deal for Collins. Already paying Kemba Walker, Tatum and Brown over $100 million each, Boston would almost certainly have to and the same to Collins, further restricting their ability to fill out a roster that, beyond those three, has been lacking this season. On paper they are a great fit, but there are just too many extenuating factors that make a deal unlikely.

Plenty of other teams could (and should) put their hat in the Collins-ring but are also unlikely to do so due to various factors. The Houston Rockets, Charlotte Hornets and Denver Nuggets could all swing a deal for the big man, but they either have younger guys at his position or wouldn’t be willing to pay him.

Collins is a talented 23-year-old big man with All-Star potential. It’s not often someone of his caliber at such a young age is available on the trade market and teams should be aggressive in their pursuit. If Collins doesn’t get traded, teams will have a chance to sign him to an offer sheet in restricted free agency. He will likely command a $100 million deal, with any team that trades for him essentially ponying up for the first shot to pay him. 

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NBA Daily: Should Orlando Sell?

Injuries have once again foiled Orlando’s plans for success. Chad Smith assesses the situation and details why it is time for the Magic to finally blow it up and fully embrace the youth movement.

Chad Smith

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As the All-Star break approaches, the Orlando Magic find themselves in an all-too-familiar position. They are the basketball equivalent of a treadmill. Hell-bent on moving full steam ahead, they continue to squeeze out wins but, in the end, they are going nowhere.

There are a variety of reasons why Orlando continues to dwell in the quicksand, injuries being chief among them. There is plenty of young talent on the roster, but they just can’t seem to stay on the floor. Rookie guard Cole Anthony and star Forward Aaron Gordon are both dealing with injuries and will not return until after the All-Star break. It goes much deeper than just this season though.

Jonathan Isaac is in his fourth year but has played just 106 total games. He is expected to miss the entire season after appearing in only 34 games last year. Worse, just when it seemed as though Markelle Fultz had turned his career around, he was lost for the year with a knee injury just eight games into this season.

While injuries may be out of their control, Orlando hasn’t done much to help themselves, control the things they can control, either.

Drafting is a tricky puzzle, for sure, as there are always busts and sleepers that are only be realized years later. But, while Orlando has had the luxury of picking near the top every summer, they have yet to nail the star they have longed for (and desperately need). In back-to-back years they had the sixth-overall pick, which they used on Isaac and Mohamed Bamba. In 2015 they selected Mario Hezonja fifth-overall. None of their second-round picks in that span have contributed to this team, either.

The Magic have seemingly always lived in mediocrity. Despite having one of the easiest schedules in the league, they currently sit 12th in the Eastern Conference. While he obviously hasn’t had the group at full strength, head coach Steve Clifford’s team ranks near the bottom in virtually every statistical category. Player development is something that must be taken into consideration, which puts Orlando in a position where they must make a major decision.

Should they continue with their current nucleus and try to build on another lottery selection next season as they return to health, or sell off their talented veteran players now and embrace a full-on rebuild?

Orlando’s biggest asset is obviously Nikola Vucevic, the All-Star center in the midst of a career year. In year two of a four-year contract worth $100 million, Vucevic’s salary actually declines by $2 million each year. And, at the age of 30, Vucevic will no longer be in his prime once the Magic are relevant again.

Taking advantage of desperate teams that need help at the center position, like the Boston Celtics or Golden State Warriors, could net them multiple first-round picks and or a young player in return. The free agent class for next season is lukewarm at best, so teams may decide to explore trading to acquire top-tier talent. If Orlando puts him on the trade block, their phones will be ringing off the hook all the way up to the March 25 deadline.

Should the Magic decide to move their best player, it would open the window of opportunity for Bamba. The seven-footer is still under contract for one more season so he could be easily dealt if the franchise decides to hold on to Vucevic. Several suitors have already been knocking on Orlando’s door about his availability. With Bamba’s name already in trade rumors, it could signal that the team is headed in a different direction.

Gordon’s name is one that has already been in trade rumors even before the season tipped off. The fourth-overall draft pick in 2014 doesn’t have the same explosion and athleticism that he once possessed, but he is still just 25-years-old and would be a valuable piece for any team.

Despite his regression, Gordon’s value remains high for contending teams looking to add a piece that they believe will put them over the top. The return for Orlando will not be a huge bounty, but moving on from Gordon could be wise as he has one year remaining on his contract at just $16.4 million, which should be very enticing to interested teams.

After suffering 15 losses in 19 games, Orlando has now won three in a row and four out of their last five. While none of those victories came against top-level teams, it is a sign that perhaps the Magic aren’t ready to just cut their losses in the midst of an injury-filled season.

Orlando does have two Disable Player Exceptions, worth $6.1 million and $3.7 million, respectively. This would allow them to add another player but they are just $2.8 million below the luxury tax. That being said, there isn’t a player available that is going to turn Orlando’s season around. They will face the Brooklyn Nets, Utah Jazz, Dallas Mavericks, and Atlanta Hawks before the break.

After missing the postseason six years in a row, Orlando has made the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. The problem is they haven’t done much after getting there. In those two years, they have only won a total of two games; both first-round exits. The year-to-year improvement just hasn’t been there, as Orlando seems to have hit their ceiling with this core.

In the best-case scenario, the Magic would have a healthy Isaac and Fultz to pair with their two talented big men. They would have another lottery pick to add to their pool of young talent. Anthony avoiding the sophomore slump and the continued development of Bamba and Dwayne Bacon would be of major help for the future of this franchise as well.

Odds are, even with all of these coming to fruition, however, the team wouldn’t amount to a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference.

Evan Fournier is another name that could be on the move. The veteran sharpshooter will be a free agent this summer and would like to play for a contender, per Zach Harper of The Athletic. The Magic aren’t keen on the idea of re-signing the veteran scorer, as they will have to pay Isaac and Fultz. Finding Fournier’s new home this season could benefit both sides in the long run.

Orlando’s organizational philosophy has always been to compete for the playoffs, with all indications showing that will not change this season. But, with the trade deadline a month away, there is still a chance they could reverse course on that. Every organization starts a new season with the goal of reaching the postseason. But, at some point, the future must take precedence, even if it means suffering in the short-term for the long-term gain.

Orlando’s best route to long-term success would be to cash in on their talented veterans now. Investing in the future and going young is a blueprint that many teams have committed to. The Hawks, Memphis Grizzlies, Charlotte Hornets and New Orleans Pelicans are all oozing with young talent and have bright futures. The Magic have the opportunity to add either another top draft pick or two or some young established players to their promising young core and they should seize it.

Sneaking into the playoffs and getting smacked in the first round once again is not going to improve this team in the long run. There is no added value in playing four or five additional games after the regular season. This franchise must see the big picture and position itself to succeed using a different path.

The goal for Orlando should not be making the playoffs again. Their goal should be to finally escape NBA purgatory. The plan should be to embrace the youth movement and accumulate some assets, while they still can.

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NBA Daily: Gary Trent Jr. Pushing Portland to Defy Expectations

Once again, the Portland Trail Blazers are overcoming injuries and defying expectations. As to how, look no further than Gary Trent Jr.

Bobby Krivitsky

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Once again, the Portland Trail Blazers are overcoming injuries and exceeding expectations. They’re currently fifth in the Western Conference and within three games of the second-seeded Los Angeles Clippers.

It’s abundantly clear that Damian Lillard is most responsible for Portland’s success. However, one player can only take a team so far and, as great as Lillard has played the role of Batman, Gary Trent Jr. has taken a huge step up and emerged as his Robin in the absence of CJ McCollum.

In fact, in their Feb. 4 tilt against the Philadelphia 76ers, a game in which the Trail Blazers were without Lillard and McCollum, Trent scored a team-high 24 points and led Portland to a 121-105 victory at the Wells Fargo Center, just the 76ers second loss at home on the season.

Lillard, McCollum and Trent have only played 11 games together this season — and, in one of those, Trent logged fewer than six minutes. When the three of them suit up, Portland is 7-4 and has scored 136.6 points per 100 possessions, the highest offensive rating of any trio on the Trail Blazers that has played at least 10 games together, per NBA.com. That group will have to provide more defensive resistance for Portland to succeed in the postseason — in their time together, the trio is surrendering 117 points per 100 possessions — but their offensive potency would give them a chance against just about any opponent.

McCollum, who has missed time due to a fracture in his left foot, hasn’t played since Jan. 16. Since then, Portland, who recently rattled off six consecutive wins, are 10-6. In February, the team is 8-3 while Trent, who is averaging 18 points per game since McCollum’s injury, has proven an essential part of that success.

For the season, the former Duke Blue Devil is averaging 15.4 points per game while splashing 44.2 percent of his 7.4 three-point attempts per game. Trent is also 13th in the NBA in three-pointers made per game, contributing 3.3 per contest. But what’s pushed his game to a new level this season?

Well, Trent has improved his greatest strength: the catch-and-shoot three. Last season, Trent shot 41.5 percent on 2.9 catch-and-shoot opportunities per game. This season, not only has he improved that percentage to 44.6 percent, but he’s done so on four such attempts per game.

Trent has also become more dangerous off the dribble: while he averaged just 2.9 pull-ups per game last season, Trent has appeared far more comfortable creating off the bounce this season, hoisting 6.3 pull-ups per contest this season and knocking them down at a 39.2 percent clip. 3.3 of those attempts have come from beyond the arc and are going in at a rate of 43.3 percent. The fact that Trent has more than doubled those attempts per game is an accurate reflection of his evolution into more than a long-range threat.

The same goes for his newfound penchant for coming off a pindown and snaking his way from the slot — the space between the three-point line and the top of the key — to the opposite elbow for a mid-range jumper.

 

For all his improvement, Trent still has a lot of room for growth. To put it mildly, his numbers at the other end of the floor are underwhelming. Trent ranks towards the bottom of the Trail Blazers’ roster in numerous defensive metrics, per basketball-reference: his 1.1 steal percentage is 10th on a 14-player roster; his .1 defensive win shares ninth; his -2.3 box plus-minus 11th; his 120 points per 100 possessions 14th.

His effort is evident — Trent’s 2.1 deflections per game, the third-most on the Trail Blazers, is a testament to that — but, as someone who’s typically alongside at least one of (if not both of) Lillard and McCollum, Trent is often charged with more difficult defensive assignments, arguably tougher tasks than he’s best-suited to take on. But, sometimes, challenges of that nature are a part of life in the NBA.

The Trail Blazers rank sixth in points per 100 possessions, but their defensive rating is the third-worst in the league. That imbalance has existed throughout the Lillard-McCollum era in Rip City, and it’s at the core of why Portland hasn’t made it past the first round in three of the last four postseasons. It also makes the Blazers’ run to the Conference Finals two years ago that much more impressive.

Trent Jr.’s growth offensively is a crucial part of why Portland once again is overcoming injuries and defying regular-season expectations. However, if he can make more of an impact defensively, perhaps by raising his steal rate, it could be one of the main reasons the Trail Blazers enjoy a lengthier stay in the playoffs than has typically been the case in recent years.

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