With the NBA Draft less than nine days away, things in the NBA are starting to heat up as NBA teams zero in on trade scenarios and the players they will ultimately have a real shot at drafting.
There is a very important disclaimer/concept worth re-stating.
Rumors, like the ones we’ll dig into in a moment, typically come from agents and other teams. It is pretty rare that a team will tip its own hand to the media at this point in the calendar.
Other teams and agents get information based on either a team trying to involve them in a trade, or in the case of an agent, explaining their plan in order to get a player in for a workout, especially if that player may not fit the current roster.
As a result, you should always take rumors and speculation for what they are – evolving and developing concepts and situations. Until deals and transactions become final, some of these things are just as likely not to happen as happen, as teams evaluate what they want to do. At this point in the process, there are a lot of fluid things that play off the domino effect of the draft and the looming free agency window.
With all of that in mind, let’s dig into a few things:
The Anthony Davis Situation
The New Orleans Pelicans have started to field calls and offers on forward Anthony Davis. The prevailing thought from teams who have tried to engage in a deal is that the Pelicans would like closure as soon as it’s practical, with most believing closure will come around the draft.
ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski is reporting that the asking price for Davis appears to be some combination of a current All-Star player, a young player with All-Star potential and several draft picks.
While that appears to be the desired return, there are not many in NBA circles that believe Pelicans president David Griffin will get all of his wish list.
League sources say that more than half of the league has logged interest in obtaining Davis for themselves, and while the teams most commonly linked to Davis – New York, Brooklyn, the LA Clippers and Lakers – appear to still be in the hunt, there are a lot of conversations taking place.
The expectation is that the Pelicans will move quickly to find closure to the situation and that could make the next week fairly interesting, especially as teams try to land Davis as a means to lure in another marquee player in free agency.
Davis has one more fully guaranteed year worth $27 million and a player option for 2020-2021 worth $28.7 million left on his deal.
The Kyrie Irving Situation
It has been well chronicled that Kyrie Irving’s love affair with Boston may have run its course and that he may not only look at signing with a new team, but he may also open the process up to several teams with the prevailing belief being that the Brooklyn Nets may be his desired landing spot.
Sources close to the situation say that the Celtics are not operating like they have Irving coming back, but they are fully prepared to offer him a full max deal and let him turn that deal away.
The Celtics do have somewhat of an advantage in that Irving is their own player, and they are allowed to have conversations with him about his future. They cannot offer a new deal or new deal terms directly, but they can gauge his view on deals and trades they might do, with an understanding of how Irving would react or if a specific deal would change his thinking.
For example, before giving away the farm for say Anthony Davis, they can ask Irving if that would sway his thinking. Irving clearly doesn’t have to engage on that, but unlike other teams, the Celtics can at least ask before making a huge gamble type deal.
The Celtics are operating on a lot of fronts and seem to be lining up options.
Some of those options include deals that would bolster a roster built around Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, players who seem to be the centerpiece of any Davis trade discussion.
The Houston Rockets have been looking for ways to shake up their roster, and sources have said the Celtics have expressed considerable interest in big man Clint Capela, likely as a fall back if they do not land or aggressive pursue Davis.
The Rockets have been trying to get first-round level prospects in for workouts, baiting agents with the idea that can and likely will trade for a pick in the top 20.
The Celtics currently are sitting on three first-round picks: the 14th, 20th and 22nd.
League sources have doubted that Boston will keep all three of those picks, so it will be interesting to see what Boston ultimately does with those selections.
The common characterization of the Celtics from other teams is that they are working all of the angles and, given how much they could do, that’s no small order.
The Sixers Situation
Like the Celtics, the 76ers have a lot of options on the table. There is a sense that the 76ers will make full max contract offers to both of their pending free agents, Tobias Harris and Jimmy Butler. Both are unrestricted free agents so they can pick any team they like, but the belief is if both are offered the full max, they would re-sign.
Time will tell if that’s how it will play out, but the 76ers seem to be making sure teams, and ultimately their players, know they are serious about keeping the core together.
The 76ers are also one of the teams holding a huge portion of the draft in their control (for now) with one first rounder (the 24th pick) and four second-rounders – the 33rd, 34th, 42nd and 54th picks.
The 76ers second-rounders have some interesting trade value as they do not carry a cap hold until those players are signed, making the ones in the 30’s a little more valuable in a flat draft than picks in the mid-twenties that carry cap implications.
With the 76ers expected to be way into the tax next season, it will be interesting to see how the 76ers use all those picks and if some combination of them can yield another veteran piece as teams try to clear cap space.
Picks On The Move
At this point in the calendar, most teams have met with or worked out the players they have serious interest in. The next part is gauging if the picks they hold will return more or better fitting value in trade than the players they can draft with them.
There are a few picks said to be obtainable, and are the ones worth watching:
The New York Knicks just had Duke forward RJ Barrett in yesterday, and while he is openly campaigning to be a Knick, there is a sense that New York would look at trade down scenarios in order to open more cap space. The third overall pick in this draft carries a $6.46 million cap hit, so that’s not an inconsequential number. The Knicks are one of the teams believed to be in the Anthony Davis discussion, and the number three is a centerpiece to a Knicks based deal.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been pegged as the team in the top five to most likely make a pick-based trade. There is a belief that the Atlanta Hawks are trying to move up and that the Cavaliers could be the team that makes the deal.
Like the Cavaliers, the Phoenix Suns seem more open to trading their pick than keeping it. There was an odd workout with Coby White in Minnesota last week that lead many to wonder if the Suns and Minnesota were cooking up a swap. The Suns are said to covet a veteran guard and, through Minnesota, they might be able to get one.
The Atlanta Hawks pulled off a very early deal last week, and that actually won’t be consummated until the new cap year kicks in this July. That deal now gives the Hawks control of the 8th, 10th, 17th, 35th, 41st and 44th picks. The Hawks are believed to working on a couple of fronts, the biggest being moving up into the top five, while the other is putting themselves into the Anthony Davis discussions to extract value out of their excess picks and cap flexibility. The Hawks seem way more likely to deal picks than use them.
As for additional picks in the first round, there is a sense that Minnesota, Orlando, Charlotte, Miami and Boston are all open to trading their picks for the right veteran return, meaning most of the picks in the 5 to 16 range could be in play on draft day.
While there are a lot of things in motion, there is a growing sense that this year’s draft transaction window could be one of the busier ones we’ve seen this decade, which will make for interesting rumors and conversation leading up to draft next Thursday.
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NBA Daily: Examining Michael Porter Jr.’s Ascension
Since Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Michael Porter Jr. is averaging over 25 points per game and looks like a future All-NBA player. Bobby Krivitsky examines Porter’s ascent and the questions that come with it.
Since Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Michael Porter Jr. has taken his game to new heights.
In the wake of Murray’s ACL tear in mid-April, Porter’s playing time has gone from 30.6 minutes per contest to 35.7, while his shots per game have risen from 12.6 per game to 16.5. The increased responsibility has fueled his ascent. He’s knocking down 56.3 percent of those attempts. He’s taking 8.2 threes per game and making a blistering 50 percent of them. As a result, Porter’s gone from averaging 17.5 points per game to 25.1. He’s also grabbing 6.1 rebounds and blocking almost one shot per contest.
At the time of Murray’s injury, the Denver Nuggets were in fourth place in the Western Conference. They remain there now, 9-4 in his absence, and they boast the eighth-highest net rating in the NBA.
The only way for the Nuggets to fall from fourth would be if they lost their four remaining games and the Dallas Mavericks won their final five contests because the Mavericks have the tiebreaker since they won the season series. On the more realistic end of the spectrum, Denver sits just 1.5 games back of the Los Angeles Clippers, who occupy the third seed in the West. The Nuggets won their season series against the Clippers, meaning they’d finish in third if the two teams ended the regular season with the same record.
There’s a bevy of questions surrounding Porter’s recent play that need to be asked but cannot get answered at the moment. That starts with whether this is anything more than a hot streak. While it’s impossible to say definitively, it’s reasonable to believe Porter can consistently and efficiently produce about 25 points per game. He was the second-ranked high school prospect in 2017 and entered his freshman year at Missouri firmly in the mix for the top pick in the 2018 NBA draft. That was thanks in large part to his offensive prowess as a 6-10 wing with a smooth shot that’s nearly impossible to block because of the elevation he gets when he shoots.
A back injury cost him all but 53 minutes of his collegiate career and caused him to fall to the 14th pick in the draft. He ended up in an ideal landing spot, going to a well-run organization that’s also well aware of its barren track record luring star players looking to change teams, making it vital for the Nuggets to hit on their draft picks.
Porter’s first year in the NBA was exclusively dedicated to the rehab process and doing everything possible to ensure he can have a long, healthy and productive career. Last season, finally getting a chance to play, he showed off the tantalizing talent that made him a top prospect but only took seven shots per game while trying to fit in alongside Nikola Jokic, Murray, Paul Millsap and Jerami Grant.
More experience, including battling against the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, an offseason, albeit a truncated one, to prepare for a more substantial role with Grant joining the Detroit Pistons and Millsap turning 36 this year, helped propel Porter.
But for the Nuggets, before Murray’s injury, the perception was that even though they weren’t the favorites to come out of the Western Conference, they were a legitimate title contender. How far can they go if Porter’s consistently contributing about 25 points and over six rebounds per game while effectively playing the role of a second star alongside Jokic?
It seems fair to cross Denver off the list of title contenders. But, if Porter continues to capably play the role of a second star alongside Jokic when doing so becomes more challenging in the postseason, the Nuggets can advance past a team like the Mavericks or Portland Trail Blazers. And at a minimum, they’d have the ability to make life difficult for whoever they had to face in the second round of the playoffs.
Unfortunately, the timing of Murray’s ACL tear, which happened in mid-April, means there’s a legitimate possibility he misses all of next season. Denver’s increased reliance on Porter is already allowing a young player with All-NBA potential to take on a role that’s closer to the one he’s assumed his whole life before making it to the sport’s highest level. If the Nuggets are counting on him to be the second-best player on a highly competitive team in the Western Conference next season, it’ll be fascinating to see what heights he reaches and how far they’re able to go as a team.
Theoretically, Porter’s growth could make it difficult for Denver to reacclimate Murray. But given Jokic’s unselfish style of play, there’s room for both of them to be satisfied by the volume of shots they’re getting. Unfortunately, the Nuggets have to wait, potentially another season, but Jokic is 26-years-old, Murray 24, Porter 22. When Denver has their Big Three back together, they could be far more potent while still being able to enjoy a lengthy run as legitimate title contenders.
NBA Daily: D’Angelo Russell Back on Track
D’Angelo Russell lost much of the 2020-21 season to injury. Drew Maresca explains why his return will surprise people around the league.
D’Angelo Russell was traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves last February, just before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down the entire season. But we’ve yet to see what Russell can really do in Minnesota.
The Timberwolves acquired Russell in late February in exchange for a future first-round pick – which transitions this season if they pick later than third – a 2021 second-round pick and Andrew Wiggins.
Sidenote: For those keeping score at home, the Timberwolves currently have the third-worst record in the league with five games remaining. It would behoove Minnesota to lose as many of their remaining games as possible to keep their 2021 pick. If the pick does not transition this season, it becomes unrestricted in 2020.
Trying to turn an owed pick into an unprotected future first is usually the wrong move; but in this instance, it’s better to keep the high first-rounder this year with an understanding that your 2022 pick will probably fall in or around the middle of the lottery.
The thinking around the deal was that Minnesota could qualify for the playoffs as soon as this season by swapping Wiggins’ contract for a young, talented lead guard in Russell. It has not played out as planned.
COVID resulted in a play stoppage shortly after the deal, robbing Russell of the opportunity to ramp up with his new team. When the NBA returned to finish the 2019-20 season, the Timberwolves failed to qualify for bubble play – and considering the US was still battling a global pandemic, Russell couldn’t easily practice with his new teammates and/or coaches.
The 2020-21 season began weirdly, too. The NBA proceeded with an abbreviated training camp and preseason. And while this impacted all teams, Russell was additionally hindered by the decision.
Ready or not, the season began. In 2020-21, Russell is averaging a near-career low in minutes per game (28.2) across just 36 games. He’s tallying 19.1 points per game on 43.6% shooting and a career-best 38.8% on three-point attempts. He’s also he’s posting a near career-best assist-to-turnover ratio (5.7 to 2.8).
Despite Russell’s contributions, the Timberwolves have failed to meet expectations. Far from the playoff squad they hoped to be, Minnesota is in contention for the top pick in this year’s draft. So what has gone wrong in Minneapolis?
Russell’s setbacks are fairly obvious. In addition to the lack of preparation with his teammates and coaches, Russell was diagnosed with a “loose body” in his knee, requiring arthroscopic knee surgery in February. As a result, he missed 27 consecutive games. Russell returned on April 5, but head coach Chris Finch revealed that he’d been on a minutes restriction until just recently.
Minnesota is clearly being cautious with Russell. Upon closer review, Russell has been restricted to under 30 minutes per game in all of his first 10 games back. Since then, Russell is averaging 31 minutes per game including an encouraging 37 minutes on May 5 in a four-point loss to Memphis.
Since returning from knee surgery, Russell is averaging 27 minutes per game across 16 games. Despite starting 19 of the team’s first 20 games, he hadn’t started in any game since returning – until Wednesday.
On the whole, Russell’s impact is about the same as it was prior to the injury, which should be encouraging to Timberwolves’ fans. He’s scoring slightly less (18.8 points since returning vs. 19.3 prior), shooting better from the field (44.9% since returning vs 42.6%% prior) and has been just slightly worse from three-point range (37.4% since vs. 39.9 prior). He’s dishing out more assists per game (6.5 since vs. 5.1 prior), too, and he posted three double-digit assist games in his last five contents – a feat achieved only once all season prior to his last five games.
Despite playing more and dropping more dimes, there’s still room to improve. Looking back to his career-bests, Russell averaged 23.1 points per game in 2019-20 in 33 games with Golden State (23.6) and 12 games with Minnesota (21.7).
But his most impactful season came in 2018-19 with the Brooklyn Nets. That season, Russell averaged 21.1 points and 7.0 assists per game, leading the Nets to the playoffs and earning his first trip to the All-Star game. He looked incredibly comfortable, playing with supreme confidence and flashing the ability to lead a playoff team.
At his best, Russell is a dynamic playmaker. The beauty of Russell is that he can also play off the ball. He has a quick release on his jumper and impressive range. His game is not predicated on athleticism, meaning he should stay at his peak for longer than guys like De’Aaron Fox and Ja Morant.
And while he’s been in the league for what feels like ever (six seasons), Russell just turned 25 approximately two months ago. Granted, comparing anyone to Steph Curry is unwise, but Curry wasn’t Steph Curry yet at 25. Former MVP Steve Nash hadn’t yet averaged double-digits (points) at 25. Twenty-five is also an inflection point for Damian Lillard and Russell Westbrook. And the list goes on.
To be fair, Russell was drafted at 19 so he’s more acclimated to the league at this age than most, but his game will continue expanding nonetheless. He’ll develop trickier moves, become stronger and grow his shooting range. And a good deal of that growth should be evident as soon as next season since he’ll be fully healed from knee surgery and have a full offseason and training camp to finally work with teammates and coaches.
So while Minnesota’s 2020-21 season was incredibly bleak, their future is quite bright – and much of it has to do with the presence of Russell.
NBA AM: Is This It for Indiana?
Following their major drop-off, Matt John explains why the Pacers trying to get back to where they were may not be the best decision.
Remember when, following the maligned trade of Paul George, the sky was the limit for the Indiana Pacers? The 2017-18 Pacers were one of the best stories in the NBA that season because they made their opponents work for their victories, and they put on a spectacle every night.
It’s hard to believe that all transpired three whole years ago. When Cleveland eliminated Indiana in a very tight first-round series, I asked if having the exciting season that they did – when many thought it would turn out the opposite – was going to benefit them in the long run. Three years later, this happens.
Goga Bitadze and Pacers assistant coach Greg Foster got into a heated discussion.
Myles Turner and multiple other players got involved to attempt to break up the confrontation. pic.twitter.com/9Xr96HmJg8
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) May 6, 2021
We were getting plenty of smoke about the Pacers’ drama behind-the-scenes beforehand, and now, we have seen the fire firsthand. More and more reports indicate that the crap has hit the fan. Indiana has seemingly already had enough of Nate Bjorkgren in only his first year as his coach. When you see the results they’ve had this season compared to the last three, it’s not hard to see why.
The Pacers have routinely found themselves in the 4-5 playoff matchup for the last three years. Sadly, despite their fight – and, to be fair, they had pretty awful injury luck the past two postseasons – they haven’t been able to get over the hump in the first round. They may not have been in the elite tier, but they weren’t slouches either. So, seeing them not only fail to take the next step but look more and more likely for the play-in is as discouraging as it gets. Especially after they started the season 6-2.
If these reports about the tensions between the players and Bjorkgren are real, then this has already become a lost season for the Pacers. It’s too late in the season to make any major personnel changes. At this point, their best route is just to cut their losses and wait until this summer to think over what the next move is.
In that case, let’s take a deep breath. This has been a weird season for everyone. Every aspect minus the playoffs has been shorter than usual since last October. Everything was shortened from the offseason to the regular season. Oh, and COVID-19 has played a role as the season has turned out, although COVID-19 has probably been the least of Indy’s problems. Let’s think about what next season would look like for Indiana.
TJ Warren comes back with a clean bill of health. Caris Levert gets more acquainted with the team and how they run. Who knows? Maybe they finally resolve the Myles Turner-Domantas Sabonis situation once and for all. A new coach can come aboard to steady the ship, and it already looks like they have an idea for who that’s going to be
Report: Mike D’Antoni ‘leader in the clubhouse’ to become the next Pacers head coach https://t.co/42Ik5nPTyU
— NBA Central (@TheNBACentral) May 6, 2021
Should they run it back, there’s a solid chance they can get back to where they were before. But that’s sort of the problem to begin with. Even if this recent Pacers’ season turns out to be just a negative outlier, their ceiling isn’t all too high anyway. A team that consists of Warren, Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, and Caris Levert as their core four is a solid playoff team. Having Turner, Doug McDermott, TJ McConnell, Jeremy Lamb, and the Holiday brothers rounds out a solid playoff team. Anyone who takes a good look at this roster knows that this roster is a good one. It’s not great though.
Just to be clear, Indiana has plenty of ingredients for a championship team. They just don’t have the main one: The franchise player. Once upon a time, it looked like that may have been Oladipo, but a cruel twist of fate took that all away. This isn’t a shot at any of the quality players they have on their roster, but think of it this way.
For the next couple of years, they’re going to go up against Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving. All of whom are on the same team. For potentially even longer, they’ll be going up against the likes of Giannis Antetoukounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Jayson Tatum. With the roster they have, they could make a series interesting against any one of those teams. However, it’s a rule of thumb in the NBA that the team with the best player usually wins the series. Not to mention, they’d have to beat most of the teams those players play for to go on a substantial playoff run. That’s a pretty tall order.
There’s no joy in talking about the Pacers like this because they have built this overachieving underdog from nothing more than shrewd executive work. They turned a disgruntled and expiring Paul George into Oladipo and Sabonis. Both of whom have since become two-time all-stars (and counting). They then managed to turn an expiring and hobbled Oladipo – who had no plans to return to Indiana – into the electric Levert. They also pretty much stole Brogdon and Warren away while paying very little for either of them.
That is fantastic work. The only hangup is that, as of now, it just doesn’t seem like it will be enough. But, doubt and skepticism are things Indiana’s had thrown their way consistently since 2017. Many thought their approach to trading Paul George would blow up in their face, and since then, they’ve done everything in their power to make everyone eat their words.
Kevin Pritchard’s got his work cut out for him this summer. This season will hopefully turn out to be nothing more than performance ruined by both the wrong coaching hire and an unusual season that produced negatively skewed results. But at this point, Pritchard’s upcoming course of action this summer shouldn’t be about getting his team back to where they were, but deciding whether he can get them a step or two further than that by adding more to what they have or starting over completely.
Indiana’s had a rough go of it in this COVID-shortened season, but their disappointing play may have little to no bearing on where they go from here.