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NBA PM: The Western Conference Arms Race

The West’s playoff teams are making moves and the arms race is almost as entertaining as the on-court product.

Alex Kennedy

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The Western Conference Arms Race

While it’s been awfully fun to watch the Western Conference teams face off on the court this season, it’s been almost as interesting to follow the intensifying arms race that’s taking place off the court.

With how stacked the West is this season, each contender in the conference is looking for ways to bolster their roster in preparation for an insanely competitive postseason.

In recent weeks, more and more West teams have made significant additions – with the Dallas Mavericks landing Rajon Rondo, the Oklahoma City Thunder acquiring Dion Waiters, the Memphis Grizzlies adding Jeff Green, the Houston Rockets acquiring Corey Brewer and Josh Smith, the Phoenix Suns bringing in Brandan Wright and the Los Angeles Clippers trading for Austin Rivers.

That’s obviously a lot of movement, especially considering it’s not even February yet, but more moves are likely to come very soon. Here are the latest rumors surrounding some teams out West:

Dallas Mavericks: Dallas already made their biggest move when they traded for Rajon Rondo, but immediately after that deal was completeled, it became clear that they needed to add a big man to give them some frontcourt depth and replace Wright, who was really thriving in the role. Now, it appears they’re nearing a deal with Jermaine O’Neal, which isn’t a big surprise since he lives in the area and wanted to remain close to his family. They are expecting to sign him, and the only reason this move hasn’t already happened is because three weeks ago O’Neal traveled to Germany to have Orthokine treatment on his knee and it takes about five-to-six weeks for players to recover from that. O’Neal posted a picture of himself getting the treatment on his Instagram account three weeks ago, along with a message hinting that he’d be playing this season. This treatment is something that O’Neal swears by, as he believes it played a big role in his resurgence in Phoenix and Golden State (after having a miserable two-year stint in Boston). Once O’Neal has recovered from the Orthokine, he’s expected to join the Mavericks and help their frontcourt.

Los Angeles Clippers: The Clippers tried to trade for Jeff Green, but didn’t have the assets to land him so Green landed with the Memphis Grizzlies instead. They recently added Austin Rivers, but it seems they aren’t done making moves. Doc Rivers has hinted that the team may add two free agents with their open roster spots – possibly Nate Robinson (who badly wants to play for the Clippers) and perhaps another player who gets bought out (such as a veteran wing like Tayshaun Prince or Andrei Kirilenko). Ray Allen is obviously a possibility as well, as he previously played for Doc Rivers in Boston and may like the idea of playing in Los Angeles, but Allen still hasn’t given any indication that he’s going to play this season. And if he does decide to suit up, just about every playoff team will be blowing up his phone trying to sign him so the Clippers will have plenty of competition if they pursue the veteran sharpshooter.

Houston Rockets: The Rockets have already made two midseason moves, but they have still been working the phones. League sources say they have been dangling Jason Terry’s $5,850,313 expiring contract in trade talks, and it seems they’re open to packaging it with picks or prospects in order to complete a deal. Expiring contracts aren’t as valuable in today’s NBA, but certain teams do have interest in ending or non-guaranteed deals. Take the New York Knicks, for example, as they recently gave away Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith in a cap-clearing move. If Houston can’t pull off a larger trade that lands them a big-name player like Goran Dragic (who they’re pursuing), adding a player like Jose Calderon from New York for Terry’s expiring deal could be a back-up plan for Rockets GM Daryl Morey. It’s important to note that this Terry-for-Calderon scenario hasn’t come from a source and is just speculation (unlike other rumors mentioned throughout this piece), but the swap could make sense for both teams. New York wants to move Calderon’s contract since he is owed over $7 million in each of the next two years and they want to have as much cap space as possible entering the summer. The deal could help Houston too, as the 33-year-old is an experienced, pass-first point guard who can knock down open shots (and, most importantly, is someone they could obtain without having to give up much at all). The only issue would be that it would limit Houston’s cap flexibility going forward, which may throw a wrench in the deal. Still, Morey is known for making moves at the trade deadline – he’s active just about every season – and don’t expect this year to be an exception.

Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder are another team to keep an eye on as the deadline approaches. Once they traded for Dion Waiters, many people thought they would stand pat, but multiple executives have said that they continue to be aggressive and are still looking at trade opportunities. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams are untouchable, but “everyone else could be moved” for the right price, said one rival executive. OKC has been linked to players like Brook Lopez and Wilson Chandler among others, so it’s clear they’re looking to make a significant addition if possible. Reggie Jackson seems to be the player to watch between now and Feb. 19. The vibe that rival executives get from the Thunder is that they’re on the fence about moving Jackson before the deadline. On one hand, they’re in the luxury tax and may not be able to afford Jackson this summer when he hits restricted free agency. He also hasn’t had the best attitude since the Waiters move, especially since his minutes have been down (which is the exact opposite of what he wanted entering this season). There have even been rumors circulating that he’s had some issues with teammates, which further complicates things for the Thunder. With all of that said, some within the Thunder organization believe they should keep Jackson because they realize it would be hard to replace the production they get from him at the back-up point guard position and because there’s the belief that Jackson and Waiters could form a nice one-two punch if they’re able to get on the same page and eventually develop some chemistry. A Jackson trade could certainly happen, but league sources don’t characterize it as inevitable since the Thunder are still weighing the pros and cons of such a move.

Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizzlies recently signed Tyrus Thomas to a 10-day contract, but they’ve had their eye on a number of other veterans throughout the season as well. They won’t hesitate to go in another direction if Thomas doesn’t produce during this contract or they feel like there’s a better option for them on the market. They could let Thomas walk after these 10 days (or after a second 10-day deal expires) and try to bring in a different veteran free agent if the Tyrus experiment fails. However, it does seem Memphis wants to give Thomas a fair shot since they worked him out earlier this season and they were impressed by his performance in the D-League Showcase, where he played with their affiliate Iowa Energy.

While the teams currently in the playoff race are making the most headlines, the teams just outside of it are also actively searching for moves.

New Orleans Pelicans: The Pelicans are buyers, as they want to put some better pieces around Anthony Davis and sneak into the postseason this year. This team is determined to win now after trading away their last three first-round draft picks to land veterans Jrue Holiday and Omer Asik. The league-wide perception is that Dell Demps and Monty Williams are on thin ice right now, so there’s an even stronger sense of urgency to bolster the roster and win this season. If the team continues to struggle, they could make a change at both positions – and the rumor of owner Tom Benson being very close to Joe Dumars and interested in hiring him as the team’s next general manager is true (and has been floating around since last year).

Sacramento Kings: The Kings are also buyers as the deadline approaches. They’ve been linked to a ton of different players, from Rajon Rondo (before he was dealt to Dallas) to Josh Smith (before he was waived) to Deron Williams. They’re clearly in win-now mode, as evidenced by their decision to fire Mike Malone because they felt he wasn’t meeting expectations (even though the team was doing better than just about anyone expected). Sacramento has been extremely aggressive under Vivek Ranadive and Pete D’Alessandro and that will continue this year. They have plenty of assets including young players like Ben McLemore, Nik Stauskas, Derrick Williams and Ray McCallum and veterans such as Darren Collison, Jason Thompson, Carl Landry, Ramon Sessions and Reggie Evans – making them an attractive trade partner for both rebuilding teams and win-now teams. League sources say they have been shopping Derrick Williams, but Stauskas was recently reported to be available as well. When there’s a team that is aggressively looking to make a trade and has attractive assets to pull one off, usually that means a deal will happen before the deadline. Keep an eye on the Kings.

Denver Nuggets: One seller to watch is the Denver Nuggets, as they have already started removing veterans from their team such as Timofey Mozgov and Nate Robinson since their goal of making the playoffs went up in flames awhile ago. It seems unlikely that Ty Lawson or Kenneth Faried will be dealt, but they still have veterans like Arron Afflalo, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, J.J. Hickson, Randy Foye, Darrell Arthur, JaVale McGee and Jameer Nelson who could be poached by other teams that are looking to win now and feel they’re just a piece or two away.

Minnesota Timberwolves: The Wolves find themselves in a similar situation as the Nuggets. They entered the season (naively) hoping to be a playoff team, but instead they have the worst record in the league. Don’t be surprised if they decide to have a fire sale and move veterans like Thaddeus Young, Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Martin, Mo Williams and Chase Budinger. They already dealt Corey Brewer to Houston after he reportedly asked Flip Saunders to be traded, so similar moves could be coming.

Los Angeles Lakers: Finally, there’s the Lakers, who also could be sellers at the deadline. L.A. sits at the bottom of the standings in the West and must land a top five pick in order to keep their lottery selection (otherwise it goes to the Phoenix Suns from the Steve Nash trade). This season has been a disaster, and now it just got even worse with Kobe Bryant out for the season due to a torn rotator cuff. Trading away veterans like Jordan Hill and Ed Davis among others could be beneficial for a number of reasons. First of all, it could return some young players or draft picks that help L.A. as they rebuild. Secondly, it would free up minutes for some of the younger players on the roster and give them a chance to develop. Finally, it would likely lead to some more losses, which would increase the Lakers’ odds of keeping their pick and landing a stud in the 2015 NBA Draft (which is shaping up to be very good, especially at the top). Davis seems like the biggest no-brainer to trade, since he can (and likely will) opt out of his contract after this season and become an unrestricted free agent, so getting some kind of compensation in return for him (even if it isn’t much) would be smart rather than maybe losing him for nothing this summer.

The NBA’s trade deadline is on Feb. 19 and Basketball Insiders will keep you updated on all of the latest rumors and news between now and then. Be sure to bookmark our news section and check back throughout the day for reports and analysis from our team.

Alex Kennedy is the Managing Editor of Basketball Insiders and this is his 10th season covering the NBA. He is a member of the Professional Basketball Writers Association.

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NBA Daily: Ivica Zubac Rounding Into Form For Clippers

David Yapkowitz writes about Ivica Zubac and his strong bubble performances for the Los Angeles Clippers – is he the key for a deep postseason run?

David Yapkowitz

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The Los Angeles Clippers have no shortage of star power. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George form one of the most dangerous duos in the NBA, and both Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell are averaging close to 20 points a game each while coming off the bench.

But there is one player on the roster who might be the team’s X-Factor, one player who could hold the key to being able to withstand the imposing frontline of the Los Angeles Lakers – and that’s Ivica Zubac.

Zubac was once a Laker before he was casually tossed aside to the Clippers at last season’s trade deadline. He had shown flashes of his capabilities with the Lakers but spent most of his first couple of seasons in the league with the Lakers’ G League affiliate. Upon his arrival to the Clippers, he immediately became a key player and has since settled into the starting center role.

His arrival to the NBA’s restart bubble in Orlando was initially held up as he had tested positive for COVID-19. He has since joined the team after a mandatory quarantine period and is looking ready to help the team as they gear up for a playoff run.

He admitted that although he only experienced mild symptoms from the virus, he still felt winded and not quite up to speed as he tried to ease himself back into regular game flow.

“It’s much better, it’s much better than when I got here. I can feel it getting better with each practice, each game,” Zubac said on a recent conference call with media.

“After I first started getting back in shape, after I was cleared, I felt like I was out of shape. My chest was a little tighter when I would do some stuff. But I feel great right now. I don’t feel anything. I’m getting back into shape, I’m almost there. It’s going to take some more time.”

Zubac feeling like his old self again has been evident with each passing game. He started slow, only finishing with two points and three rebounds against the Lakers while being outworked by Anthony Davis. Against the New Orleans Pelicans, he looked a bit better, especially with his effort on the glass.

In the Clippers’ third game of the restart against the Phoenix Suns, Zubac put up 18 points and 12 rebounds while shooting 77 percent from the field. He followed that up with his best bubble game to date with 21 points on a perfect 10-for-10 shooting and 15 rebounds against the Dallas Mavericks.

Zubac equated his increased production with gradually regaining his conditioning and mobility and getting the feel again for regular game speed.

“I’m getting the feel, I’m starting to remember what guys like, what are the best spots on the court for me. My conditioning is getting better each practice, each game,” Zubac told media after the Mavericks game. “I’m feeling like I can stay on the floor for a while, I can run the floor, I can fight in the post with guys, I can rebound. Everything with my conditioning getting back, I can get on another level in every aspect of my game.”

Before his performance against the Mavericks, Zubac had a pretty solid game against the Suns – but the center was obviously still readjusting to his teammates and being able to make the right reads and be in the correct spots on the floor. He played solid defense on Deandre Ayton, but he also ended up having a costly turnover late in the game that set up Devin Booker’s eventual game-winner.

Following the Suns game, Clippers head coach Doc Rivers had mentioned there were a few areas that Zubac could use improvement in, and he was much more effusive in his praise after his performance against the Mavericks.

“He was phenomenal. We talked about it, he did all the things we needed, he really ran the floor, that didn’t show up statistically, but what it did, it created space, it created mismatches,” Rivers told media after the game.

“I loved that our guys were looking for him. I thought his rebounding was fantastic. Really coming off the way we ended the game the other day with Zu, then coming back, playing like that, that was fantastic for his confidence.”

Throughout the season, Zubac has been a player that doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective. He does have a soft touch around the rim and can establish a strong position in the post, but he does a lot of damage when he’s rolling to the rim, cutting and moving without the ball and catching lobs from his teammates.

He’s also a good rebounder who gets points off of offensive putbacks, and he’s a solid defender who acts as the team’s interior defensive anchor. He’s also usually on the bench at the end of games when Harrell is in with the starters. But depending on potential matchups, perhaps against the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic, or even the Lakers and Davis, Zubac could find himself finishing some games.

What is certain though, is he’s proving his importance to the team and he’s showing that come playoff time, he could end up being the X-factor. He knows that his teammates are going to look for him and he’s ready for that.

“It’s just communication on the floor, knowing what Kawhi and P.G like, knowing how to get a better angle on a screen, just the plays we run, got to have a better understanding what’s good at the time. It’s mostly communication on the floor,” Zubac said. “It feels great to get rewarded by my teammates after doing all the hard work.”

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Free Agency Update: Changes In The Bubble

Drew Maresca explores the free agency implications of the first week of play in the bubble as the NBA continues its return to post COVID-19 play.

Drew Maresca

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Free agency is always a fun time for the NBA and its fans, but particularly so in 2020. Most free agents have usually earned their next deal by the 65th game of any given season – but this year is far from typical. Instead, the NBA has returned, sans its eight worst teams, meaning that competition is consistently better. And with limited competition for our attention, every game is a major event that draws more eyes and has a greater effect on the paydays of to-be free agents.

We’re still only three or four games into the official return of the NBA, but there have already been some changes to how we perceive some players. Take T.J. Warren, for example, who’s averaging over 39.7 points per game through three contests. Or Michael Porter Jr., who looks more like the focal point of a team than a player in his first year of professional action.

This article will focus explicitly on the changes in perception of free agents to-be as a result of their play in the bubble in Orlando.  We understand that the players listed below can still hurt their standings and that teams rate free agents differently. While the sample size is small, we’ve seen deals made based on an equally small body of work (e.g., Jerome James to the New York Knicks).

One caveat to keep in mind is the unprecedented fiscal challenges facing the NBA and its club in 2020. Not only will the COVID-19 pandemic inevitably hurt the 2020-21 salary cap, but there’s also still a conclusion to be had with the preseason China situation.

With all of that in mind, let’s explore the players that have made the loudest cases for a payday come this offseason.

The Stars

Mike Conley Jr., Utah Jazz – Player Option

Conley Jr. has a player option for 2020-21 – but he played poorly enough through March, relative to what we’ve come to expect from him, that it was more than reasonable to assume he would opt-in at $34.5 million.

But wait, there’s a chance that Conley does us all a favor and makes free agency 2020 more interesting. Conley’s averaged 19.8 points and 5.8 assists per game, way, way up from 13.8 points and 4.3 assists per game prior to the stoppage in March. If Conley keeps this going – and especially if he performs well in the playoffs – he might want to test the market considering the lack of elite talent that’s anticipated to hit it – assuming he’s unhappy in Utah, that is.

Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans – RFA

Ingram’s looked similar to the guy we saw in 2019-20 before the play stoppage – he’s averaging 23.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game when playing 30 or more minutes. While he was less effective in a loss against the Clippers (14 points and two rebounds in 24 minutes), he’s demonstrated growth in how decisively he makes his move and how seamlessly he then scores on the move.

Ingram was probably going to get max offer as of the All-Star break – especially after reaching his first All-Star team at 22 – but COVID-19 probably altered the ability for teams to dole out lucrative deals. But then play resumed and Ingram picked up right where he left off – and with a confidence to use it liberally. Ingram is nearly a lock for a max deal now.

Fred VanVleet, Toronto Raptors – UFA

VanVleet started off his time in the bubble with a solid performance (13 points and 11 assists), but he really showed out in his second game against the Miami HEAT. VanVleet led the Raptors to a win against Miami with a career-high 36 points. And then he got right back to being Mr. Consistent for Toronto by posting 21 points and 10 assists in a win against Orlando.

So ultimately, VanVleet has led the Raptors to a 3-0 (re)start, and he’s either scored a career-high or dropped 10-plus assists. James Dolan and Leon Rose are somewhere together – albeit socially distanced, we’re sure – drooling – as are all of the teams in need of a lead guard, like Detroit. VanVleet can only increase his value from here. He’s not assumed to be a max-level player, but if he plays well enough through the playoffs, it’ll be interesting to see just how high he can reach.

 DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio Spurs – Player Option

It’s hard to imagine DeRozan’s value increasing much at this point in his career. After all, he’s an 11-year veteran that has been named to the All-Star Game four times and an All-NBA team twice.

But still, there’s always been presumed limitations to his game, namely his inability to shoot three-pointers. Since being traded to San Antonio, he’s fallen out of the national spotlight a bit. As a 31-year-old capable of reaching unrestricted free agency, DeRozan is at a major inflection point in his career. He could attempt to a final big deal or snag a smaller one if the market for his services doesn’t meet expectations. Or he could just opt-in.

But DeRozan has done his part to remind everyone that he has loads of high-quality basketball left in him. He tallied 30 points on 11-for-20 shooting on Tuesday in a close loss to the 76ers and he’s averaged 22.3 points, 7.3 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game since the Spurs resumed play last Friday. While those averaged mostly coincide with what he did this season, it also represents a decent boost in assists. But more importantly, it solidifies that DeRozan should still receive a serious look as a lead star. And he’ll probably get interest from a number of teams.

The Known Commodities

Marcus Morris Sr., Los Angeles Clippers – UFA

While Morris Sr. is a known commodity, teams could use additional poor performances against him in negotiations. He’ll probably still have the option to sign for a veterans minimum or mid-level exception with a contender like the Clippers or Lakers. But if he’s eyeing another payday that pays him an annual salary equal to what he made in 2019-20, it would behoove him to make his mark on the stat book. 

Making A Case

Trey Burke, Dallas Mavericks – UFA

Burke hasn’t been overly consistent since NBA play resumed last week. But he did have a huge breakout game against the Rockets, scoring 31 points on 8-for-10 for three-pointers in only 30 minutes, while also dishing six assists.

Yes, Burke is averaging just 5.5 points in 18 minutes in the two games since, but the fact that he scored 31 in an NBA game will be enough to get looks as an off-the-bench scorer. And it’s a narrative that can be supported by his past work, too. Remember, Burke is still just 27-years-old  and he has a 42-point career-high. He’s also exploded for 30 four times and eclipsed the 20-point mark on 38 occasions in his 389 career games. So even if it’s just a reminder, it’s good to know that Burke can still get it done offensively – and teams are always looking for ways to manufacture offense.

Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz – UFA

Clarkson’s shot only 40 percent from the field since play resumed last Thursday, with an even worse 20 percent from three-point range. Still, scorers are as valuable as ever. It’s what made J.R. Smith so much money in this league, as well as Lou Williams and countless others – and rightfully so. Ultimately, it’s about putting the ball in the hoop. And with that being said, a franchise is going to pay Clarkson and they’ll end up paying more than they would have as of March.

Reggie Jackson, Los Angeles Clippers – UFA

Jackson has less to prove than most guys in this part of this list – but given his injury history, he does have to make a statement.

On the whole, Jackson has looked good – but not necessarily great. He averaged 12.5 points, seven rebounds and two assists in his first two contests, but he regressed in the Clippers’ most recent game against the Suns. But on a positive note, Jackson received only 23 minutes on Tuesday versus Phoenix and his 15 points on 5-for-9 shooting, eight rebounds, two assists and two steals accumulated in just 20 minutes.

If Jackson continues to be a contributor to the contending Clippers, someone will overspend on him. After all, good point guards are few and far between.

The Unknowns

Harry Giles III, Sacramento Kings – UFA

Giles III only played four minutes in the Kings’ first game back against the Spurs and he didn’t fare much better over 12:55 versus the Mavericks on Tuesday. But when you’re a fringe player that had injury concerns throughout your young career, any positive outings are good – especially those that come in a contract year. Giles tallied 23 points and eight rebounds in only 20 minutes against the Orlando Magic – a significant jump from his 7.2 points and 4.2 rebounds averages this season.  And that’s probably enough to generate interest amongst a number of teams.

The Kings curiously declined Giles’ fourth-year option, making him an unrestricted free agent as of the end of this season. That’s an interesting decision because the option was relatively cheap given that he was only the No. 20 overall pick (2017). Further confusing matters is the idea that by passing on the fourth-year option, they also lost matching rights – so Giles won’t even be restricted.

To make matters worse, the Kings can’t even bid more than $3.9 million to retain his services. So the Kings ultimately wasted a first-round draft pick on Giles for a grand total of 14.5 minutes per game across 99 games – and he’ll walk before they even know what they had in him.

But this all works out nicely for Giles, who will absolutely get an opportunity elsewhere – and he’ll be paid more than he would have received in Sacramento for it. How good is still an unknown, but he’s shown enough for a team to take a flyer on considering his size, skill set and versatility. He was the No. 1 overall recruit coming out of high school according to ESPN just four short years ago.

Free agency is going to be different than ever before and, up until very recently, that was assumed to be a bad thing. But with some of the above players changing the narratives around them, it could become even more exciting than it’s been in the recent past. Add in the likes of DeMarcus Cousins, Davis Bertans, Christian Wood – and we’re looking at an under-appreciated free-agent class.

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NBA Daily: Breaking Down The Bubble’s Race For 8th

Ben Nadeau analyzes the race for the No. 8 and 9 spots in the Western Conference – who will make the cut?

Ben Nadeau

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As the NBA inched toward its inevitable rebirth, the instant drama surrounding the Western Conference’s No. 8 seed became a conversation wildfire.

Was the league rolling out the red carpet in hopes of a Zion Williamson-LeBron James showdown in the first round? Could the healthier Portland Trail Blazers make another historic run toward history? De’Aaron Fox, the Sacramento franchise cornerstone, took umbrage over a lack of Kings-related faith, while the Memphis Grizzlies had more than enough ground to protect their standing in the current hierarchy.

Three or so games in to our bubbled adventure, everything has changed – and fast.

The Pelicans, still worrisome over Williamson’s health and conditioning, played him about 15 minutes in each of their first two contests – coincidently, New Orleans went 0-2. With their backs against the wall and slowly losing traction in a muddied race, the Pelicans played the future superstar for 25 minutes, where he racked up 23 points, seven rebounds and used a personal 6-0 run to clinch a much-needed win. Not only did the victory signify an important swing in momentum for the veteran-laden squad, but it was another crushing defeat for Grizzlies, who fell to 0-3 and further loosened their once-gridlocked hold on the final playoff seed.

Long perceived to be a five-team fight for the right to face Memphis in the play-in game(s), the Grizzlies’ early struggles have now nearly opened both spots up. All the more interesting, the San Antonio Spurs have begun 2-1, alongside the Phoenix Suns’ 2-0 effort. Although invited without much media afterthought, both the Spurs and Suns – who boast two of the most reliable constants of the bunch, Gregg Popovich and Devin Booker, respectively – are within the four-game window needed to force a play-in too.

So then: Thanks to the Grizzlies’ scuffles, who’ll be the two franchises to reach that play-in showdown?

Let’s start with the Pelicans, a team that’ll be better the more Williamson is allowed on the floor, obviously. While that variable remains up in the air, New Orleans’ remaining schedule is not. They’ll finish with the Kings twice, plus winnable matchups against the Spurs, Wizards and Magic. Although that opening day loss versus Utah stings, there’s no shame in falling to the Clippers, so the opportunity is certainly still there for the Pelicans to reach Nos. 8 or 9 in the coming days.

The Spurs, following a hard-fought effort against Philadelphia on Monday, unfortunately, have a much harder path forward: Denver, Utah, New Orleans, Houston and Utah. No Magic, no Nets, no Kings, even. Just New Orleans and three teams currently fighting for ‘home court’ advantage in the first round. Of course, betting against Gregg Popovich is beyond stupid and that is a lesson some select few must re-learn every spring – but they still seem like the least likely of six to leapfrog into a spot.

Likewise, it isn’t much better for Phoenix. They’ll conclude with the Clippers, Indiana Pacers and T.J. Warren’s supernova act, Miami HEAT, Oklahoma City Thunder, Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks. Thankfully, Mikal Bridges’ efforts in Orlando and Ricky Rubio’s trusty playmaking have served as great foils for Deandre Ayton and the aforementioned Booker. Overall, their offensive rating just cracks the top half (15th, 110.4) and their defense remains in the lower half – but stars win games and Booker fits the bill.

Even the Kings, losers to the Spurs and Magic to open their bubble campaign, get the Pelicans twice but also a downright bad Brooklyn Nets squad and a potentially-resting Los Angeles Lakers team in four of their final five games – so don’t count them out either. With their destiny firmly in hand, expect the Kings to make a run of their own. Fox put up 39 points against San Antonio before tallying just 13 versus Orlando – and, in the latter, Sacramento’s only scorer above 15 went to Harry Giles’ 23. Given the context and a very winnable schedule, the next week or so bodes well for the Kings’ hopes.

As for Portland, the squad with the most bankable 1-2 punch of the collection, have an impossibly-tough Rockets-Nuggets-Clippers-76ers run-in before ending with the Mavericks and Nets. Worse, that stretch of difficult opposition will come fast and furious – a classic three games in four days slog. But above all, their defense leaves too much to be desired, even with the return of Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins. Before the shutdown, Portland’s defense was only better than the Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards at 113.6 in the ratings department.

In the two games back, well, it’s actually been even worse and their putrid 132.0 defensive rating is a whopping 7 points behind the Kings’ 29th-rated unit. It’s early and the sample size is certainly small – but with only six games left, they’ll need to figure it out in the against some of the league’s best. Still, Damian Lillard is a big-moment killer – he did, after all, break up the Thunder core on his own last April – and he’s capable of hot streaks that few others are.

Lillard and Nurkic put up 30 points apiece against Boston – plus 17 from CJ McCollum and 21 notched by Gary Trent Jr. – and totaled 124 as a team… yet it still wasn’t enough. The heroics of Portland’s stars will be relentless, but if they can’t stop the opposition – they’ll come up short.

In the end, even guessing at Nos. 8 and 9 is a fool’s errand. The Bubble has provided shock after shock already – and the added hurdle of rested players for locked-in seeds are soon to come – but six teams will be whittled down to two before long. Despite the slow start, Memphis remains in the driver’s seat – if they can pick up a win on Wednesday versus a seriously-slumping Jazz side, it’ll go a long way toward clinching their place.

And they’d better hope so: If they don’t, they’ll need to hope for some load management with the Thunder, Raptors, Celtics and Bucks to end the mini-campaign. It’s one of the tougher schedules left in the Western Conference, but their cushion, no matter how rapidly it is shrinking, is still reason to believe they’ll limp into the do-or-die scenario.

As for the second spot, it still feels like the Pelicans’ to lose. Between Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball, JJ Redick, Brandon Ingram and, duh, Williamson, there’s too much firepower here to completely struggle through an easier-than-most schedule.

But, sure, bet against Gregg Popovich, Damian Lillard, De’Aaron Fox and Devin Booker at your own risk – conventional wisdom suggests that at least one of them will crash the party, no matter how unlikely it seems today.

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