NBA
March Madness 2023 National Championship Odds, Predictions, and Best Bets
After four seasons of professional baseball in the San Diego Padres system, Colin was featured as a freelance sports writer in numerous publications. He enjoys handicapping and writing about sports wagering while covering the MLB, NBA, NFL, PGA, and multiple college sports. Colin attended and played baseball at St. John's University in Queens, NY.
All posts by Colin LynchUpdated12 hours ago on April 18, 2024
And then there were. We’ve been through a wild March, with all sorts of upsets and blowouts, buzzer beaters, and thrillers. And we’re down to the final two. San Diego State and UConn. For our Final Four picks, we had Florida Atlantic covering the 2.5 against SDSU, which they did, and we said we thought UConn we cruise against Miami, as they did. It’s another interesting matchup as we have SDSU and their pressure D facing off against another balanced team in UConn.
Let’s look at the current odds, discuss the line movement, and go over our best bets for the National Title game.
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*All times Central
Monday, April 3
- No. 5 San Diego State (-2.5) vs. No. 4 UConn | 7:20 p.m. | CBS
| Bet | San Diego State | UConn | Play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +280 | -362 |  |
| Point Spread | +7.5 | -7.5 | |
| Total Points | Over 132.5 (-110) | Under 132.5 (-110) | |
San Diego State is set to make history by making its first-ever appearance in the title game. The Aztecs have come this far by winning both their Elite 8 and Final Four games by just one point, a feat that has not been accomplished by any other team, as Chris Fallica pointed out on Twitter.
San Diego State is the first team to win both its Elite 8 game and National Semifinal game by exactly one point.
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) April 2, 2023
UConn is a seasoned contender when it comes to championship games and is on the brink of securing its fifth title in school history. You’d have to think with a win here, the Huskies enter the conversation of being a true Blue Blood of college hoops.
San Diego State Attacks With Relentless Defensive
San Diego State is known for trying to control the pace of the game and limit their opponents’ transition opportunities, but their efforts to do so were unsuccessful against Florida Atlantic on Saturday, largely due to FAU’s deep bench and skill players. UConn is going to be as deep and skilled as FAU and more athletic, with shooters all over the floor.
UConn, however, boasts an equally deep roster and their ability to confidently play nine key contributors is a testament to their depth, which is arguably unmatched in the country. UConn has been every bit as stifling on the defensive end as SDSU. They’re long and have the personnel to defend the perimeter and the paint.
The Aztecs have shown that they are willing to outwork their opponents even when their shots are not falling, creating scoring opportunities through offensive rebounding, as evidenced by their game against FAU Vladislav Goldin wasn’t dominant on the boards whatsoever but he did help alter shots defensively. But rest assured, Adama Sanogo will not allow as many offensive rebounds as FAU did and will be just as tough defensively.
I like San Diego State. This has been a historic run and they have been so tough and resilient. They’ve had offensive dry spells and have overcome them on the other end.
UConn’s Balance Is Overwhelming
But just like I did against Miami, I think UConn is too much for SDSU in the end. I’m not saying I don’t think SDSU can’t hang, because they 100% can. I think that when SDSU hit one of those offensive spells, they won’t be able to get the stops they need against UConn. And just like UConn has done all tournament, and just like we said they did against Miami, they’ll extend, and extend some more.
This line opened at 6.5 and quickly got to 7.5. Currently, 66% of the tickets and 81% of the handle sits on UConn and I expect those numbers to go up with the line. I think it definitely gets to 8 and maybe even high by tip.
We have two plays in this one.
THE PICK: UConn -7.5 & Over 132.5
