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NBA Betting Picks: Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers preview, picks and prediction

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NBA Betting Picks - Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers preview, prediction and picks
Toledo Blade

In tonight’s Eastern Conference rematch, the Miami Heat (16-11) are facing off versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (16-12) at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Will Lauri Markkanen and the Cavs win their fourth consecutive game?  

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Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers news

Leading into Monday night’s intraconference matchup, the Heat are 16-11 against the spread in the 2021-22 NBA season, whereas the Cavaliers are 22-5-1 against the spread. This game will air live at 7 p.m. ET via Bally Sports Ohio, Bally Sports Sun and NBA League Pass. According to Land of Basketball’s database, these two teams have played one another 120 times during the regular season all-time. Miami is 73-47 versus Cleveland. In the past three head-to-head meetings, the Heat are 2-1 against them. However, on Dec. 1, Cleveland won 111-85.

So far this season, Cavs rookie forward Evan Mobley has totaled 46 blocks, averaging 1.9 blocks per game. The third overall pick ranks seventh in the league for this statistic. Mobley is also averaging 14 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game. Not to mention, the 20-year-old is shooting 48.2% from the field and 33.3% from behind the arc. Needless to say, the forward won Rookie of the Month back in November as well.

Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers betting lines and odds

NBA Betting Picks - Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers picks, preview and prediction

Sportsbook: BetUS

Over/Under: 207

Point spread: Cavaliers -5.5 (-110)

Best moneyline: Heat +280, Cavaliers -145

Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers injury report

Heat: PF Markieff Morris (out indefinitely) | SF Jimmy Butler (out) | SG Victor Oladipo (out indefinitely) | C Bam Adebayo (out four to six weeks) | SF Caleb Martin (out)

Cavaliers: SG Collin Sexton (out for the season)

Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers preview

Furthermore, on Saturday, in the Heat’s 118-92 home win over the Bulls, forward Duncan Robinson scored a team-high 26 points in 27 minutes played. Center Dewayne Dedmon finished his performance with one more career double-double, accumulating 20 points, 12 rebounds and 2.0 assists in 29 minutes of action. In Miami’s blowout victory, the team outscored Chicago 48 to 22 in the paint.

On top of the Heat out-rebounding the Bulls 50 to 34, they shot 46-for-93 (49.5%) from the floor and 19-for-43 (44.2%) from three-point range. Not only did Miami hold Chicago to 25 points in the opening quarter, the team outscored them 32 to 22 in the fourth quarter. After this win, they are 8-4 at home, 8-7 away and 8-7 ATS on the road this season. Though, the Heat have won just four out of their last 10 games.

Per ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, the Cavs have a 61.3% chance of winning. 

As for the Cavaliers, in their 117-103 home win versus the Kings, guard Isaac Okoro led his team in scoring, putting up 20 points in 30 minutes spent on the court. Center Jarrett Allen added yet another double-double to his career total, closing out his performance with 19 points, 11 rebounds and 1.0 assist in 39 minutes played. Although the Kings outscored them 64 to 52 in the key, the Cavs sank 12 three-pointers and were more accurate at the free throw line.

Cleveland also outscored Sacramento 45 to 29 in the second quarter. The team shot 41-for-88 (46.6%) from the field 12-for-31 (38.7%) from behind the arc. Now, the Cavs have won seven out of their past 10 games. They are 7-7 at home, 9-5 away and 11-3 ATS at home this season, To add to that, the team is on a three-game winning streak and their roster is mostly healthy.

Projected starting lineup

Heat: PG Kyle Lowry | SG Gabe Vincent | SF Duncan Robinson | PF PJ Tucker | C Dewayne Dedmon

Cavaliers: PG Darius Garland | SG Isaac Okoro | SF Lauri Markkanen | PF Evan Mobley | C Jarrett Allen

Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers prediction

Moreover, the total for tonight’s Eastern Conference matchup is set at 207. Referencing the spread consensus, 60% of bettors are anticipating the Cavaliers to cover the spread at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Pertaining to the point total consensus, 64% of gamblers are hoping the total will go over 207. Currently, Miami is 9-9 as a favorite, 7-2 as an underdog and 8-7 ATS away, whereas Cleveland is 6-0 as a favorite, 10-12 as an underdog and 11-3 ATS at home.

For helpful betting trends, the Heat are 11-3 ATS in their past 14 performances versus the Cavs. Plus, the total has gone over in 13 of their previous 19 games. Next, the team is 11-2 straight up in their last 13 matches against the Cavs, and they are 4-1 SU in their past five road games at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. To add to these betting statistics, the Heat are 4-2 ATS in their previous six matches against Central Division opponents. Lastly, the total has gone over in six of Miami’s last nine contests this season.

On the other side, the Cavaliers are 10-0 ATS in their previous 10 performances. Also, the total has gone over in four of their past six games. Additionally, the total has gone over in six of the team’s last seven contests played versus the Heat. Next, the total has gone under in four of Cleveland’s previous six games against Southeast Division opponents. Ultimately, the Cavs are the better pick for this one; the Heat have a lot of injuries. If you want to enhance your handicap betting, read through our guide here at Basketball Insiders.

Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers betting pick

Pick the Cavaliers to win, they will cover the spread and the total will go over 207. Cleveland is a 4.5-point favorite at home with BetUS.

All betting lines were retrieved from BetUS. Click below to claim a free bet, if you’re a new customer.  

James is a Basketball Insiders contributor. He earned his bachelor's degree in English and Creative Writing at Southern New Hampshire University. James enjoys watching sports and helping gamblers win money.

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