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NBA Betting Picks: Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks picks, preview and prediction

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NBA Betting Picks - Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks picks, preview and prediction

For tonight’s Eastern Conference battle, the Miami Heat (14-9) are focusing on defeating the Milwaukee Bucks (14-9) for a second time this season. Minus Giannis Antetokounmpo, can Khris Middleton and the Bucks pull off their first head-to-head win this season versus the Heat?

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Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks news

Heading into Saturday night’s intraconference matchup, the Heat are 14-9 against the spread in the 2021-22 NBA season, whereas the Bucks are 10-13 against the spread. This game will air live at 8 p.m. ET via Bally Sports North, Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Wisconsin and NBA League Pass. Per Land of Basketball’s database, based on 119 all-time regular season games played head-to-head, Miami is 72-47 versus Milwaukee. On Oct. 21, 2021, the first meeting during this regular season, the Heat pulverized them, winning 137-95.

The top story for tonight’s game pertains to Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo. The ninth-year veteran missed Thursday’s contest against the Raptors, and it was an ugly loss for the defending champs. Toronto held Milwaukee to under 100 points, winning 97-93 at Scotiabank Arena. Antetokounmpo will also miss this upcoming matchup versus the Heat. However, multiple sportsbooks have the Bucks as favorites over the Heat. Are the odds correct? The Greek Freak is their most valuable player, and he’s averaging 27.6 points, 11.8 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game this season.

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks betting lines and odds

NBA Betting Picks: Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks preview, picks and prediction

Sportsbook: BetUS

Over/Under: 213.5

Point spread: Bucks -6.5 (-110)

Best moneyline: Heat +205, Bucks -245

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks injury report

Heat: PF Markieff Morris (out indefinitely) | SF Jimmy Butler (out) | SG Victor Oladipo (out indefinitely) | C Bam Adebayo (out indefinitely)

Bucks: C Brook Lopez (out indefinitely) | SG George Hill (probable) | C DeMarcus Cousins (probable) | PF Giannis Antetokounmpo (doubtful) | PF Semi Ojeleye (out) | SG Donte DiVincenzo (out indefinitely)

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks preview

Additionally, on Friday, in the Heat’s 113-104 road win over the Pacers, guard Kyle Lowry led his team in scoring, putting up 26 points in 38 minutes of action. Forward Duncan Robinson also closed out his performance with 24 points, 2.0 rebounds and 1.0 assist in 30 minutes played. In the opening quarter, the Heat outscored the Pacers 32 to 25.

While both teams finished with over 35 rebounds, Miami still outscored Indiana 50 to 38 in the paint. Their sixteen-made threes gave them all the edge they needed on the road as well. They shot 43-for-81 (53.1%) from the floor and 16-for-34 (47.1%) from behind the arc. Counting this victory, the Heat are now 8-6 away, 6-3 at home and 8-6 ATS on the road this season.

Meanwhile, in the Bucks’ 97-93 road loss against the Raptors on Thursday, guard Jrue Holiday scored a team-high 26 points in 37 minutes spent on the court. Forward Khris Middleton ended his night with 22 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists. Despite these teams finishing with 47 rebounds, Toronto outscored Milwaukee 36-26 in the paint. The Greek Freak is clearly the MVP of his team.

Without Giannis Antetokounmpo playing, the Bucks are just above average, not great. They certainly could have used his aggressive playstyle to acquire more rebounds and control the paint. Milwaukee shot 32-for-85 (37.6%) from the field and 11-for-31 (35.5%) from three-point range. Not to mention, this loss snapped their eight-game win streak. Now, Milwaukee is 7-5 away, 7-4 at home and 3-8 ATS at home this season.

Projected starting lineup

Heat: PG Kyle Lowery| SG Tyler Herro | SF Duncan Robinson | PF PJ Tucker | C Dewayne Dedmon

Bucks: PG Jrue Holiday | SG Grayson Allen| SF Pat Connaughton | PF Khris Middleton | C Bobby Portis

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks prediction

Furthermore, the total for tonight’s Eastern Conference contest is set at 213.5. This is a trap game for a lot of risk-takers. Miami’s Jimmy Butler is not playing, and Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo is sitting out. Referring to the spread consensus, 59% of bettors are predicting the Bucks will cover the spread at Fiserv Forum. According to the point total consensus, 53% of gamblers are projecting the total will go over 213.5. The Bucks could not generate enough points versus the Raptors, but this contest could be different.

Miami is 9-8 as a favorite, 5-1 as an underdog and 8-6 ATS away, while Milwaukee is 13-4 as a favorite, 1-5 as an underdog and 3-8 ATS at home. For significant betting trends, the Heat are 2-5 ATS in their past seven performances. Next, the total has gone over in four of their last five games. Plus, Miami is 1-5 straight up in the team’s previous six matches versus Milwaukee. Finally, the team is 3-7 ATS in their past 10 contests played in December, and the Heat are 3-6 ATS in their prior nine matches against Central Division opponents.

As for the Bucks, they are 4-2 ATS in their previous six performances. And, the total has gone under in 14 of their last 20 contests. Also, the total has gone under in four of Milwaukee’s past six games played at Fiserv Forum against Miami. Lastly, the team is 6-0 SU in their previous six games played at home, and the total has gone over in five of their last six contests played on a Saturday. Therefore, pick the Bucks to win, but the Heat will cover the spread. Be sure to review all injuries before wagering a bet.

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks betting pick

Pick the Bucks to win, the Heat will cover the spread and the total will go over 213.5. Milwaukee is a 6.5-point favorite with BetUS.

All betting lines were retrieved from BetUS. Click below to claim a free bet, if you’re a new customer.  

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