After winning the first two games, Devin Booker and company couldn’t quite keep up with the Bucks in Game 3. Milwaukee will try to even up the series before traveling back to Talking Stick Resort Arena for Game 5 on Saturday. The Bucks are 8-1 in nine home games during the postseason while Phoenix has won six of its nine road playoff contests.
With the series guaranteed to go back to Phoenix, can the Bucks even up the NBA Finals at two games apiece with a win on Wednesday evening?
NBA Finals Game 4 Betting Preview
The Bucks enter Game 4 favored by 4.5 points. Bovada sportsbook has set Milwaukee as -200 money line favorites while the Suns offer bettors a little more value with +170 money line odds. Game 4 is projected for 220.5 points.
Booker, Ayton Seek Bounce-Back Performances in Game 4
The Suns turned in a lackluster effort on Sunday, coming up short 120-100 on the road in Milwaukee in Game 3. Phoenix had no answer for Milwaukee’s energy and was outscored 35-17 in a decisive second quarter. Veteran point guard Chris Paul finished with 19 points and nine assists to lead the team in both categories while DeAndre Ayton and Jae Crowder chipped in 18 points apiece in the loss.
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Booker will try to use his short memory to overcome a pedestrian 10-point performance in Game 3. The 24-year-old scored 27 and 31 points in Games 1 and 2, respectively, but knocked down just 3 of his 14 shots in Sunday’s loss. In spite of the off-night, Suns’ fans have plenty of reasons to be optimistic on Wednesday, as Booker has developed a penchant for coming back strong in 2021. The Suns’ guard shot less than 35 percent from the field 11 times this season. In the games that followed, Phoenix finished with a 9-2 record and the Suns’ star averaged 23.8 points per game on 44.3 percent shooting in those matchups. In his first career postseason appearance, Booker is averaging 26.3 points per game through 19 contests.
Just two wins away from the franchise’s first NBA Championship, the Suns will try to clamp down on the defensive end after giving up a postseason-worst 120 points in Game 3. Per dunksandthrees.com, Phoenix finished the regular season ranked ninth in the NBA in adjusted defensive efficiency with a 111.2 rating. Anchored by Ayton, the Suns have also been the third-best defensive team during the NBA Playoffs on a per-possession basis.
Antetokounmpo Joins Elite Company Following Game 3 Win
Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 41 points and hauled in 13 rebounds as Milwaukee cruised to a 120-100 victory in Game 3. Antetokounmpo shot 14-for-23 from the field and attempted 17 free throws (13-for-17) on the night, one more than the entire Suns’ team. Jrue Holiday bounced back with 21 points and nine assists while Khris Middleton added 18 points in the win.
With the Suns aiming to wall off the rim, Antetokounmpo was more assertive on the offensive end in Game 3. Phoenix used multiple defenders in an attempt to stop the Greek Freak but to no avail, as Antetokounmpo relentlessly bullied his way to the rim and opened up opportunities for shooters on the outside. The Bucks shot 14-of-36 from 3-point range (38.9 percent) as a team with Holiday and Middleton combining for eight made 3-pointers.
— TimeoutSPORTS__ (@TimeoutSPORTS3) July 12, 2021
On defense, the Bucks closed the regular season with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 111.8, good for 10th in the NBA. According to ESPN Stats and Information, the Bucks have found some success by matching up Holiday and Antetokounmpo against Booker on the defensive end of the floor. Booker shot a combined 0-for-4 when guarded by the Bucks’ two first-team All-NBA defenders in Game 3. For the series, Booker is 2-for-11 against Holiday and 1-for-6 with Antetokounmpo guarding him.
NBA Betting Trends
Trends can be valuable information for bettors looking to improve their NBA betting strategy.
Below is a shortlist of trends for Game 4 of the NBA Finals.
- Bucks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
- Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.
NBA Finals Betting Predictions
Below, you can find some NBA betting predictions for Game 4 of the NBA Finals.
NBA Finals Game 4 Spread Prediction:
This isn’t an unfamiliar position for the Bucks, who dropped back-to-back games during the Eastern Conference Semifinals versus the Brooklyn Nets. Milwaukee went on to win that series in seven games by winning Games 3 and 4 at home, where it has been tough to beat during the NBA Playoffs. Phoenix hasn’t had an answer for Antetokounmpo, who has scored at least 40 points in back-to-back contests. The Bucks have also used big men Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis to effectively space the floor on offense, taking Suns’ center DeAndre Ayton out of his comfort zone on the defensive end. Look for Milwaukee to exploit Ayton along the perimeter and take the Bucks to cover the spread at home in Game 4.
NBA Finals Game 4 Money Line Prediction:
Milwaukee has won eight of its nine postseason contests at the Fiserv Forum while the Suns are 6-3 in nine road contests during the NBA Playoffs. The Suns provide better value for money line bettors in Game 3 but we’re still leaning towards the home team in this spot. The Bucks seem to have shaken off their woes from Games 1 and 2. With Antetokounmpo controlling the paint on both ends of the floor and Milwaukee heating up from long range, look for the Bucks to even up the series with a win at home on Wednesday night.
NBA Finals Game 4 Total Prediction:
With Ayton in foul trouble in Game 3, the Suns’ defense was unable to keep the Bucks’ out of the paint and off of the scoreboard. However, unless you’re expecting Ayton to be relegated to the sidelines once again, it’s hard to see this turning into a high-scoring affair. All three contests have combined for at least 220 points but the Suns’ defense was more vulnerable due to foul trouble in Game 3. If Ayton can stay on the floor, Milwaukee should have a much tougher time getting to the rim in Game 4, which bodes well for a low-scoring affair here. Take Game 4 of the NBA Finals to stay under the projected total on Wednesday evening.
NBA Finals Game 4 Player Props:
With Bet365 and other sportsbooks offering healthy odds for one of the league’s premier triple-double threats, there should be some value on this player prop in Game 4. The Greek Freak was well on his way to a triple-double in Game 3, racking up four assists in the first quarter. However, he was more aggressive in looking for his own shots as the game progressed, finishing with just six assists in the blowout win. With Phoenix likely to do a better job of walling off the paint in Game 4, Antetokounmpo will have to rely on his teammates even more on Wednesday. Take Antetokounmpo to record a triple-double in Game 4 at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee.
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