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Ranking the NBA’s Eastern Conference

Tommy Beer ranks the 15 teams in the Eastern Conference after a busy offseason.

Tommy Beer

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Although the Eastern Conference is often mockingly referred to as the “JV” to the powerful Western Conference’s “Varsity” (or the “Leastern Conference”), the East can claim the defending NBA champion Cleveland Cavaliers.

And while the East may not contain another elite team, that’s part of what should make the conference so exciting and unpredictable next season. As detailed in the way-too-early rankings below, after the front-running Cavs, there is very little separation between the rest of the teams:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

Death, taxes and LeBron James representing the East in the NBA Finals. A child under the age of seven knows only this: The team with LeBron will be the team that represents the East in June. And there is certainly no reason to believe that will change next season.

LeBron is still very much in his prime and is undoubtedly the best player on the planet. Also, in the 2016 Finals, we saw Kyrie Irving step up and play some of the best basketball of his career on the game’s biggest stage – outshining back-to-back MVP Steph Curry.

The Cavs lost Matthew Dellavedova and Timofey Mozgov this summer, but they were only used sparingly in the postseason. Assuming the Cavs re-sign J.R. Smith and don’t trade Kevin Love, Cleveland will bring back essentially the same rotation and will be heavy, heavy favorites to advance to the Finals yet again.

2. Boston Celtics

The Celtics won 48 games last season, tied for the third-highest number of wins in the conference. Can they make the leap from scrappy, up-and-coming team to legit threat next season?

Of all the free-agent additions made by teams in the East this summer, Boston adding Al Horford might be the most significant. The C’s have a cadre of capable defenders on the perimeter and the wing. Avery Bradley is arguably the best defensive guard in the NBA. Marcus Smart is limited offensively, but is a bulldog on the defensive end. Jae Crowder is a solid, versatile two-way player. Isaiah Thomas, the newly minted All-Star, takes and makes big shots. Yet, while Boston had some decent size and athleticism upfront, they were missing a true stud center. Enter Horford. It’s possible that Horford’s offensive and defensive contributions push the C’s past the Raps and Boston captures their first Atlantic Division crown since 2011.

3. Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have had great regular season success the last three seasons, winning three straight division titles. However, the playoffs had been far less fruitful. Toronto made amends this past postseason, squeaking past both the Pacers and the HEAT, before falling to the Cavs in the Conference Finals. The Raps are bringing back essentially the same roster – save the losses of Bismack Biyombo and Luis Scola. Toronto will bring in Jared Sullinger to replace Biyombo as a back-up big off the bench.

Guard play is so important in today’s NBA, and the Raptors are powered by their dynamic backcourt duo of Kyle Lowry and (the newly rich) DeMar DeRozan. Thus, along with the improved team defense, it would be foolish to assume the Raps don’t win around 50 games next season and return as a high seed heading into the 2017 postseason.

4. Indiana Pacers

If we are looking for a sleeper to climb into that upper echelon of the East, the Pacers are my pick. Indiana made some shrewd moves this offseason. They stole Thad Young (and his valuable contract) from the Brooklyn Nets. They inked Al Jefferson to an affordable deal.  They traded for Jeff Teague (although I do think they’ll miss George Hill). You add these new pieces to their existing core and there is plenty for Pacer fans to be excited about.

Foundation cornerstone Paul George is arguably the second-best player in the entire conference. Myles Turner is only 20 years old, but is already developing into a monster down low. The future is bright in Indy. They have a chance to make serious noise next season.

5. Detroit Pistons

After re-signing Andre Drummond, the Pistons are bringing back essentially the same roster as last season. Detroit finished with a 44-38 record last year and have room for improvement.

The growth of the Pistons will be determined by how much their young players improve. Their top six scorers from last season (Reggie Jackson, Drummond, Marcus Morris, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Stanley Johnson and Tobias Harris) are all 26 years of age or younger.

6. Washington Wizards

After the top five, the rest of the conference is a completely jumbled mess. I would not be shocked if any one of six teams finish as high as the sixth seed, or as low as 11th. The grouping will likely be that tightly bunched.

The Wiz were supposed to build off a promising 2014-15 campaign and take a step forward last season, but instead they went backwards. Their win total dropped from 46 to 41 and their disappointing season ended with them on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Led by stud point guard John Wall, the Wizards have the talent to bounce back. Washington committed major money Bradley Beal this summer; they will need him to stay healthy and produce.

7. Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets lost a few important contributors such as Courtney Lee, Al Jefferson and Jeremy Lin. They did, however, retain their most important free agent, Nicolas Batum, and also brought back underrated power forward Marvin Williams.

The X-Factor for the Hornets next season will be Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The former No. 2 overall pick missed all but seven games in 2015-16 due to a torn labrum. What can we expect from MKG in 2016-17? That answer will have a significant impact on the Hornets’ prospects next season and going forward.

8. New York Knicks

As discussed in-depth on the Basketball Insiders podcast this past weekend, the Knicks are an extremely interesting experiment. If (and this is a big IF) injury-prone pieces such as Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Brandon Jennings stay healthy, the Knicks have significant upside and could flirt with 45+ wins. For this reason, and others, there are significant reasons for optimism as a result of the D-Rose trade.

There is also serious ‘dumpster-fire’ potential here. Mounting injuries could result in New York crashing and burning, and missing the playoffs for the fourth straight season. Only one thing is guaranteed in NYC: It will be fascinating to watch it all play out.

9. Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have averaged 54 wins the last two seasons, so it is difficult to justify them falling all the way back to .500 next year. However, I’m of the belief that losing Al Horford will be more damaging than most anticipate. Dwight Howard is an Atlanta native, and Hawks fans are hoping he can reclaim his All-Star form in the ATL. I wouldn’t bet on it. I’m also not sold on Dennis Schroder as the point guard of the future.

10. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls, like the Knicks, have a boom-or-bust feel to them. Adding legendary Chicago native Dwyane Wade and the 2015-16 assist leader (Rajon Rondo) seems like a significant upgrade in the backcourt. However, the advanced metrics on Rondo indicate that the Kings actually often performed better with Rajon on the bench last season. And if Jimmy Butler had issues co-existing with Derrick Rose, will he get along with ball-dominant Rondo?

11. Milwaukee Bucks

The upstart Bucks have long, exciting athletes but they stumbled to just 33 wins last season. Milwaukee added Matthew Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic this summer, but other than that the team stayed mostly static. They have room for improvement, but they’re likely still a year or two away from jumping into the playoff picture.

12. Miami HEAT

The HEAT lost Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Joe Johnson from a squad that won 48 games last season. It’s usually foolish to underestimate Pat Riley, but Miami may have to deal with a down season before looking to re-tool and re-establish themselves in a major way by adding a stud free agent or two next summer.

13. Orlando Magic

It was a busy summer in Orlando. The Magic traded away former lottery pick Victor Oladipo in exchange for Serge Ibaka. They brought in Bismack Biyombo and also brought back Evan Fournier, and gave a big one-year deal to Jeff Green. They have plenty of size up front, which may lead to an eventual trade of Nikola Vucevic. The Magic’s long-term future likely hinges on the development Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and Mario Hezonja.

14. Philadelphia 76ers

Can the Sixers crack the 20-win plateau? Amazingly, it’s been three years since Philadelphia won more than 19 games in an NBA season.

Encouragingly, there is hope that the seedlings Sam Hinkie patiently planted in years past will finally begin to bear fruit. Still a number of question marks remain. Will Joel Embiid actually play? Will they trade from their abundance of big men to acquire a guard? Nonetheless, it’s possible that the 76ers will actually be competitive on a nightly basis as soon as this season. 

15. Brooklyn Nets

New Brooklyn general manger Sean Marks attempted to begin rebuilding and reinventing the Nets this summer. But after the Portland Trail Blazers matched his offer sheet to restricted free agent Allen Crabbe and the Miami HEAT surprisingly did the same for Tyler Johnson, Brooklyn had to settle for second- and third-tier free agents. Worst of all, Nets fans will have to suffer through a unexciting season and won’t have their lottery pick to show for it.

What do you think of these rankings? Leave your thoughts in a comment below!

Tommy Beer is a Senior NBA Analyst and the Fantasy Sports Editor of Basketball Insiders, having covered the NBA for the last nine seasons.

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NBA Daily: The Lakers’ Path Back to the NBA Finals

In the wake of Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Bobby Krivitsky examines the Los Angeles Lakers’ path back to the NBA Finals.

Bobby Krivitsky

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It’s been 15 games since a high ankle sprain sidelined LeBron James. 

With the Western Conference standings congested and Anthony Davis already out due to a right calf strain and a re-aggravation of his right Achilles tendinosis, the Los Angeles Lakers faced the threat of a fall that would require their participation in the play-in tournament.

However, the Lakers have fought admirably in the absence of their two stars, going seven and eight. As a result, their fall in the standings has been painless, going from third at the time of James’ injury to now occupying fifth place in the West.

The primary reason the Lakers have been able to tread water without their two stars is they’ve remained stingy on defense. Since James’ injury, they have the fourth-best defensive rating in the league. That’s despite facing four teams who rank in the top five in offensive rating and six of the categories’ top-10 members.

Right now, the Lakers are 2.5 games ahead of the sixth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers, with a 4.5-game cushion between them and the Dallas Mavericks, who are seventh in the conference. That should be a large enough gap to keep Los Angeles out of the play-in tournament, but the two teams are going to converge for a two-game series starting Thursday. For the Lakers, getting swept would re-open the possibility of having to compete in the play-in tournament.

Fortunately for them, even splitting that series would make it unlikely the Mavericks finish ahead of the Lakers in the standings. And help might be on the way for the Lakers: Davis may soon rejoin the lineup, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, meaning there’s a distinct possibility he’s active for at least one of those two matchups. As for James, he’s on track to return in three weeks.

While Los Angeles’ stars are getting closer to making their returns, the Denver Nuggets got dealt a more severe blow when Jamal Murray tore his ACL in a recent game against the Golden State Warriors. Denver is 10-2 since acquiring Aaron Gordon at the trade deadline and looked the part of a legitimate title contender prior to Murray’s injury. 

Denver is fourth in the West, 1.5 games ahead of Los Angeles. But even if the Nuggets have home-court advantage, they’re the preferable opening-round opponent, not just for Los Angeles, but any team with a legitimate chance at the fourth or fifth seed.

Fortunately for the Lakers, that’s the place in the Western Conference pecking order where they’re most likely to finish this season. So long as the Nuggets don’t freefall in Murray’s absence, Los Angeles will likely start the playoffs against an opponent that’s gone from having the potential to present the greatest challenge to the defending champions’ quest to get back to the Finals to becoming a desirable first-round matchup.

After that, the Lakers may have to get past the Utah Jazz and or the Los Angeles Clippers to make a return trip to the NBA Finals. The former has the best record in the league this season, but locking horns with the defending champions in a best of seven series is a far more challenging and potentially rewarding proving ground.

The Jazz have a deep, reliable rotation, they have the best net rating in the NBA, they’re in the top five in points for and against per 100 possessions, and they’re attempting the most threes per game, but also rank in the top five in three-point shooting percentage. However, the Lakers would have the two best players in a series against Utah. Usually, an opponent doesn’t overcome that disadvantage.  

As for the Clippers, Rajon Rondo has quickly proven to be an impactful acquisition. Los Angeles is seven and one with him in the lineup, generating the highest net rating in the league during that span. Last season, the Lakers saw first-hand how impactful playoff Rondo can be. Now, the Clippers are hoping he can bring structure to their offense, something they sorely lacked last postseason and was at the forefront of them blowing a 3-1 series lead over the Nuggets. Doing so would go a long way towards maximizing the production of a team that has the talent to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the first time in franchise history.

If this is the year the battle of LA takes place in the postseason, it figures to be a slugfest. Still, the Clippers have their doubters after last year’s meltdown in the playoffs. There’s also a large contingency who are skeptical about how far the Jazz can go in the postseason, given their lack of a top-tier superstar. Despite the validity of those concerns, both teams can beat the Lakers in a best of seven series. That no longer appears to be the case for the Nuggets, which is a shame for them and people who want to see the best possible matchups in the playoffs. But Murray’s injury, as unfortunate an occurrence as it is, makes it easier for the Lakers to get through the gauntlet that is the Western Conference and have a chance to claim an 18th championship, which would break their tie with the Boston Celtics for the most titles in NBA history.

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NBA AM: The Play-In Game – West

With the season winding down, Ariel Pacheco takes a look at how the play-in tournament is shaping up in the Western Conference.

Ariel Pacheco

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With the regular season’s end in sight, teams are making their last push to make the playoffs in what has been a condensed season. But the new play-in tournament is providing more teams than ever a chance at a coveted playoff spot.

Here is what the new play-in tournament will look like: Teams that finish with the Nos 7 and 8 seeds will face off against each other. The winner of this game will be No. 7. The Nos. 9 and 10 seeds will also play and the winner will play the loser of the first game. The winner of this game will be the No. 8 seed. 

The play-in tournament provides intrigue and adds pressure on teams in both conferences to finish in the top six and avoid the play-in altogether. The Western Conference, in particular, is shaping up to have a rather exciting finish. There are a number of teams who could find themselves fighting for their playoff lives in this year’s tournament – all below in tiers.

Teams Likely To Avoid Play-In

Portland Trail Blazers (32-24)
Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: 8
Games Against Teams Over .500: 12
Games Against West: 11

The Trail Blazers are currently the sixth seed in the West meaning, for now, they are safe from the play-in tournament. However, they are just two games above the Mavericks from possibly dropping down a place. They’re the team most likely to secure that sixth seed because they have more talent than the teams below them – hello, Dame – and they also have an elite offense. However, the defensive concerns are very real and if they were to slip, it would likely be because of their struggles on that side of the ball.

Likely Play-In Teams

Dallas Mavericks

Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: 9
Games Against Teams Over .500: 5
Games Against West: 8

On paper, the Mavs have a really easy schedule as the season winds down. They have just five games against teams over .500 and two against the Los Angeles Lakers, who may be without their two stars for those games. However, they are just 10-12 this season against sub .500 teams and are coming off a disappointing loss to the Sacramento Kings. There’s still a pretty good chance they get the sixth seed and avoid the play-in, but it also wouldn’t be surprising to see them in it as well.

Memphis Grizzlies
Games Left: 17
Home Games Left: 7
Games Against Teams Over .500: 8
Games Against West: 12

The Grizzlies are often overlooked, but they are about as well-coached as any other team in the NBA. It is likely they will be in the play-in game, but don’t be surprised if they are able to sneak into the sixth seed. They lost last year’s play-in game in the Bubble to the Blazers, so they do have experience in this type of setting. They may be getting Jaren Jackson Jr. back soon which should help. 

Golden State Warriors
Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: 9
Games Against Teams Over .500: 6
Games Against West: 13

The Warriors are getting just other-worldly performances from Stephen Curry on an almost nightly basis at this point. However, they continue to struggle to win games, in large part due to the struggles when he sits on the bench. Their schedule is pretty light to close the season, which bolsters their chances. The talent on this team isn’t great, but Curry’s play should be enough to get them in the play-in tournament. 

San Antonio Spurs
Games Left: 17
Home Games Left: 6
Games Against Teams Over .500: 12
Games Against West: 7

The Spurs have struggled of late, especially after the All-Star break. Their defense has dropped off badly, but if there’s any reason to be positive, it’s that they are still coached by Gregg Popovich and their young guys continue to show improvement. They have been really good on the road this season and a majority of their games are on the road. It won’t be easy, but the Spurs should find themselves in the play-in tournament.

Outside Looking In

New Orleans Pelicans
Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: 6
Games Against Teams Over .500: 9
Games Against West: 11

The Pelicans have been hit with the injury bug of late, but their inconsistent play this season continues to be a huge problem. Their defense continues to bleed three-pointers and while point Zion Williamson has worked, there just isn’t enough shooting to maximize him just yet. It seems unlikely the Pelicans make a late-season run to the play-in game.

Sacramento Kings

Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: 8
Games Against Teams Over .500: 8
Games Against West: 14

The Kings are the least likely team to make the play-in tournament. Their defense is still problematic and they just recently ended their 9-game losing streak. It’ll take a huge late-season push and the Kings just haven’t shown that they are capable of putting it all together for a long enough stretch. 

The play-in tournament adds a new layer of competition that will bring excitement at the end of the season. Be sure to check out how the play-in tournament is shaping up in the Eastern Conference.

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NBA

NBA Daily: The Play-In Game — East

With the play-in tournament just around the corner, Matt John previews who in the Eastern Conference might qualify for it.

Matt John

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It’s official: we’re entering the regular season’s endgame. Every game from here on out will have much bigger consequences, a statement even truer in 2021 than perhaps any other season thanks to the NBA’s new play-in tournament.

If you’re not familiar, the play-in tournament will consist of two matchups within each conference. The seventh and eighth seeds of both conferences will face off against one another, while the ninth and 10th seeds shall do the same. The winner of the seven-eight matchup will take their conference’s seventh seed, while the winner of the nine-10 game will face the aforementioned match’s loser for the eighth and final spot in the postseason. It’ll serve as a nice appetizer before the playoffs get underway.

So, now that we have 15 games left give or take, it’s time to get a full scope of who we’re most likely to see in this year’s play-in, starting with the Eastern Conference. There’s really no need to go over teams that have all but clinched their playoff spots like Philadelphia, Brooklyn, or Milwaukee. Just like there’s no need to mention teams that are way too out of a reach for a playoff spot like Detroit and Orlando.

But that does leave ten teams in the Eastern Conference that we could potentially see in the play-in. At first glance, it would sound ridiculous to say that Boston and Cleveland could be in the play-in seeing how they are separated by ten and a half games, but Boston is only two and a half games ahead of Miami for that seventh seed while Cleveland is only three games behind Chicago for the tenth seed.

The best way to evaluate is to divide these into tiers. One for playoff teams who are likely to avoid the play-in, one for teams that are most likely to be in the play-in, and those that are likely to miss out on the play-in.

Likely to Avoid

Atlanta Hawks (30-26)
Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: 11
Games Against Teams Over .500: Six
Games Against East: 13

Replacing Lloyd Pierce with Nate McMillan proved to be a genius move by Atlanta’s front office, as the Hawks have won 16 of their last 23 games. They may have had that stretch where they lost four of five, but that was on a West Coast Trip. Seeing how almost 75 percent of their remaining games will be at home, it’s hard to see Atlanta collapsing. They may be decimated by injuries right now, but the schedule seems a little too easy for them to blow this.

Boston Celtics (31-26)
Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: Eight
Games Against Teams Over .500: Four
Games Against East: 10

Much like Atlanta, Boston’s really hit their stride over the past few weeks. Getting healthy and making a few roster changes have helped them rediscover the team that started out so well at the beginning of the season. It’s hard seeing Boston folding down the stretch primarily because they won’t be facing too many strong opponents from here until the regular season’s end. Given their recent strong play, don’t expect an appearance at the play-in tournament.

Likely Play-In Teams

New York Knicks (30-27)
Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: Nine
Games Against Teams Over .500: Eight
Games Against East: Six

Give credit where credit is due. The Knickerbockers are not going away. They’ve stayed the course when many thought this was going to be another wasted year for them. They’ve given no reason to indicate that they’re stopping now. The reason they’re not as sure of a thing as Atlanta or Boston is because, over this last stretch, they’re going to face off against several Western Conference contenders looking for the highest seeding possible. As tough as that’s going to be, the Knicks are going to make each one of them earn those wins, guaranteed.

Miami HEAT (28-28)
Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: Eight
Games Against Teams Over .500: Seven
Games Against East: 11

It’s been difficult to get a read on the reigning Eastern Conference champions. They go on stretches that basically even out each other. After starting out 11-17, they win 12 of their next 13, then follow that up by losing their next six games, then win six of their next seven, then finally and most recently, they lose their next three games. No one really knows what Miami’s ceiling is right now. Odds are, the HEAT will probably be in the play-in. It’s just a matter of where. Also, why have we still not gotten any updates on Victor Oladipo?

Charlotte Hornets (27-28)
Games Left: 17
Home Games Left: 11
Games Against Teams Over .500: Eight
Games Against East: 13

What’s happened to the Hornets over the past few weeks is just straight up not fair. If LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward were playing, they’d solidly be in the same tier as Boston and Atlanta. With their squad fully healthy, Charlotte’s a playoff team, but being down their two best players definitely takes them down a peg. They deserve props that they haven’t rolled over since losing those two, but sadly they’re nowhere near as good as they were with their whole squad. Their schedule is easy enough that it shouldn’t knock them out of the play-in. If LaMelo and Hayward are back by then, then it’s hard not seeing the Hornets get into the postseason.

Indiana Pacers (26-29)
Games Left: 17
Home Games Left: 11
Games Against Teams Over .500: Seven
Games Against East Teams: 11

It hasn’t been talked about enough how injuries have really shaken up Indiana’s season. TJ Warren’s foot injury was a substantial season-long setback and Caris Levert’s cancer, as miraculous of a story as that was, was another prolonged absence. Overall, Indiana’s injuries have led to a rather underachieving season compared to past results. Luckily their schedule for the rest of the season shouldn’t be too tough, so making the play-in seems realistic.

Outside Looking In

*One of these teams will get the play-in as the 10th seed.

Toronto Raptors (23-34)
Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: Eight
Games Against Teams Over .500: Nine
Games Against East Teams: Seven

That’s right, the same Raptors, who only weeks ago were in serious talks to trade Kyle Lowry to the highest bidder, have suddenly found themselves in the fight for the final spot for the play-in. It’s not that they’ve suddenly turned it all around. It’s that the competition is too weak for them to bow out completely. Their schedule may allow them to go all-in on the tank, but maybe one last hurrah with the franchise’s greatest player isn’t the worst way to go.

Chicago Bulls (23-33)
Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: Seven
Games Against Teams Over .500: Nine
Games Against East Teams: 16

Good news: Nikola Vucevic looks like he’s fitting in splendidly. Bad news: The team has been on a downward spiral since his (and others) acquisition. Chicago has only won four of their last 13 games since the trade deadline and their remaining schedule is not going to be a breeze. On paper, they should be a shoo-in for the 10th seed, but the roster holes right now appear to be too glaring for Chicago to take the next step. If they don’t at the very least make the play-in, that’s not going to be a good look after all the moves they made.

Washington Wizards (23-33)
Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: Eight
Games Against Teams Over .500: Five
Games Against East Teams: 10

Remember when Washington was one of the worst teams in the league record-wise? And how they managed to only slightly improve themselves over the course of the season? Well, apparently that was enough to get them into the conversation for the play-in because, lo and behold, they’re now tied with Chicago for that 10th seed. It gets better too. They only face two tough challenges from here on out – Lakers and Bucks – but after that, it’s honestly easy enough that they might be the favorite to get that last play-in spot.

Cleveland Cavaliers (20-36)
Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: Nine
Games Against Teams over .500: Six
Games Against East Teams: 12

This sounds the most ludicrous seeing how the Cavs are currently the East’s 13th seed, but being three games behind Chicago while facing only six teams over .500 gives them a fighting chance. If the Cavaliers are actually able to get the play-in, that’s a big stepping stone for their future. It’s an accomplishment to build off of in an era with no LeBron James to speak of, which they haven’t been able to do since Friends was on the air.

As you can see, the play-in has, in a way, brought a new dimension to the NBA season. In any previous season (excluding the last one) no one would bat an eye at the 10 through 13 seeds. Their season at this point would be all but done and no one would care, but because of the possibility of going to a play-in tournament, teams suddenly have the chance to make something of what usually would have been a lost season.

Some teams may get annoyed by it because their time is coming to a close and there’s no need to delay the inevitable. For others, the play-in signifies that it could just be the beginning.

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