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The NBA’s All-Outperform Team

Which players have exceeded expectations the most one month into the NBA season?

Tommy Beer

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As we speed past the quarter-pole of the 2015-16 NBA season, it seems like a good time to look back on the first 20-plus games of this current campaign and discuss which players have far exceeded expectations thus far.

Below, we have sorted through the stats to determine which players deserve to be named to the All-NBA “Outperform” Team:

Guard: Rajon Rondo – Sacramento Kings
The “Rebirth of Rondo” has been one of the more pleasantly surprising storylines of the 2015-16 campaign.

The 2014-15 season was an absolute train wreck for Rondo. He struggled mightily in Dallas after he was dealt to the Mavericks from the Celtics. Dallas was hoping that Rondo would be the piece that made the Mavs legit contenders. Instead, Rondo played poorly and fell out of favor with head coach Rick Carlisle. He averaged fewer than 10 points per game for the first time since his rookie season, and fewer than eight assists per game for the first time since 2007-08. In the process, Rajon also became the first player in NBA history shorter than 6’6 to shoot below 40 percent from the free-throw line over the course of a full season. Eventually, Rondo found himself locked in Carlisle’s doghouse and Dallas actually sent him home in the middle of their playoff series versus the Rockets.

As a free agent this past summer, Rondo quickly came to the realization that his earning power had taken a drastic hit. Just a few years ago, when he was with the Celtics, it was assumed Rondo would be able to secure close to a max deal when he hit the free agent market. Instead, Rondo had to settle for a one-year deal from the Kings. By signing a one-year contract, he was effectively betting on himself. That decision looks brilliant right now.

Rondo currently leads the entire league in assists, averaging 11 dimes per contest. He is also shooting a respectable 45.3 percent from the floor and an impressive 37.5 percent from behind-the-arc. His Kings teammates (specifically DeMarcus Cousins) have already started pressing the Sacramento front office to lock him up long-term.

 

Guard: Steph Curry – Golden State Warriors
It seems utterly impossible, but the argument could be made that reigning NBA MVP will not only repeat as the league’s Most Valuable Player again this season, but he could realistically be considered a favorite to win the NBA’s Most Improved Player award as well.

Curry and the Warriors are putting up mind-boggling numbers. It is not a stretch to say that should Curry somehow be able to maintain this efficient production all season, he’d compile the greatest statistical season of all time. There are an almost limitless number of stats to choose from in order to highlight just how absurdly good Curry has been this season. Here are just a couple:

* During the 1985-86 season, Larry Bird led the entire league in made three-pointers. Bird, appearing in all 82 games that season, knocked down an NBA-high 82 three-pointers. The following season (1986-87), Larry Legend once again led the league when he hit 90 three-balls. This season, Steph Curry has already made 125 three-pointers in just 24 games.

* The current record for highest scoring average for a player playing fewer than 35 minutes per game over a full season is 28.1 points per game. Steph Curry is currently averaging 32.5 PPG, despite playing just 34.9 minutes a night.

* No player (other than Steph Curry) has ever shot better than 43 percent from three-point territory in a season in which they attempted more than seven threes per game. This season, Curry is shooting 46.3 percent from distance while averaging 11.3 treys per game.

 

Forward: Kristaps Porzingis – New York Knicks
The top three picks in the 2015 draft were essentially no-brainers. Karl-Anthony Towns, the consensus top prospect, would go first. D’Angelo Russell and Jahlil Okafor would follow, in some order.

Then the consensus ceased. Most believed it was at that point where the draft diverted from “sure-fire stars” to “promising prospects with question marks.” Different scouts and pundits predicted the Knicks would take any number of players available. Some suggested it would be in the Knicks’ best interest to move down and acquire assets.

When Commissioner Adam Silver announced “Kristaps Porzingis” as New York’s selection, many fans in the crowd booed. Obviously, expectations heading into his rookie campaign were not high.

Even those that liked the pick and loved KP’s upside were quick to point that it would be foolish to expect too much too soon. In a couple of years, once he put on some weight and adjusted to the NBA style of play, then he would likely be ready to contribute on a consistent/significant basis.

To say that Porzingis has exceeded expectations would be an incredible understatement. Porzingis’ on-court production thus far is undeniably impressive. He’s one of just nine players in the last 30 years to tally at least 10 double-doubles in his first 20 career games. He’s averaging 18.4 points, 11.2 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per-36 minutes. Highlighting his versatility, KP is currently the only player in the NBA this season with at least 40 blocks and 20 three-pointers.

And although the numbers are remarkable, it’s far more than just the statistics that have fans in all five boroughs so encouraged and enthused. It’s the sense that Porzingis is merely just scratching the surface.

He will likely reach some peaks and valleys over the next few months, and may eventually hit the dreaded ‘rookie wall,’ but the reality is that even if Porzingis was playing this well in 2017 (when he turns 22), he would still be considered to be arriving ahead of schedule.

 

Forward: Dirk Nowitzki – Dallas Mavericks
At age 37, Dirk was supposed to slipping away into the sunset of his career. He took a massive pay-cut to return to Dallas (he’s earning just $8.3 million this season), and he was supposed to be just a complementary player at this stage of his career.

However, Nowitzki is playing at a surprisingly high level, averaging 17.6 points and 7.2 rebounds a night, despite playing just 30 minutes per contest. The secret to Dirk’s success has been his remarkable efficiency. According to BaksetballReference.com, there have been only eight players in NBA history who have shot better than 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from three-point territory and 90 percent from the charity stripe. Dirk is currently shooting .488 from the floor, .407 on threes and .890 at the FT line. If Dirk accomplished that feat this season, he’d be the oldest player to join the club (only Steve Nash and Larry Bird have done it after their 30th birthday).

 

Center: Karl-Anthony Towns – Minnesota Timberwolves
Much like Porzingis, Towns is a rookie who has produced like a seasoned veteran.

As the highly-touted number one overall selection in last June’s draft, Minnesota fans expected him to contribute, but he has gone above and beyond thus far. It was clear Towns was special right out of the gate, when he became the first player to record double-doubles in his first two NBA games at age 19 or younger. KAT was named the Western Conference Rookie of the Month for November, when he ranked second among all rookies in scoring (14.4 points per game) and led first-year players in rebounding (9.4), blocks (2.18) and free throw percentage (86.7).

In December, he’s been even better, averaging 18.2 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.4 blocks through five games this month. The sky was this limit for this kid coming out of Kentucky, but most didn’t think he’d reach these heights this quickly.

Tommy Beer is a Senior NBA Analyst and the Fantasy Sports Editor of Basketball Insiders, having covered the NBA for the last nine seasons.

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NBA

NBA Daily: Is Starting That Big Of A Deal?

It’s easy to conclude that a bench player should replace a starter in the lineup if the former is outplaying the latter, but Matt John explains why that may not be the best idea.

Matt John

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Of all the topsy-turvy things that have happened to the Boston Celtics this season, Jaylen Brown’s sudden decline and subsequent comeback might just be the topsiest-turviest thing of them all.

And that’s saying something.

There may not have been a starter in the league who played as badly as he did when the season began. In his first month and a half as the starting shooting guard, Jaylen averaged 11.1 points on 39.8 percent shooting from the field and 25.3 percent from three. That was quite the drop off from his numbers the previous season, where he averaged 14.5 points on 46.5 percent shooting from the field and 39.5 percent from three.

Advanced metrics showed that Brown’s struggles were hurting the Celtics too. Boston was minus-11.9 with Brown on the floor, which was the worst on the team among players who played at least 100 minutes. By December, Brown was benched in favor of Marcus Smart, where the Celtics not so coincidentally started picking things up from there.

Since his move to the bench, Jaylen has regained his footing, averaging 14 points per game on 48.4 percent shooting and 36.3 percent from three. This most recent stretch has been really encouraging for him, as he’s put up 16.4 points a night on 49.5 percent shooting and 40.5 percent from three. Best of all, his play is benefitting the Celtics, as they are plus-6.9 with him on the floor, good for third-best among players who have played 97 or more minutes behind only Al Horford and Gordon Hayward.

His timing couldn’t be better, as the playoffs are just around the corner. Brown playing his best basketball of the season could really help the Celtics’ chances. So one question remains – why not put him back in the starting lineup?

It would make sense. The uptick in Brown’s production has coincided with the diminishment of Marcus Morris’ production.

Morris and Brown have come from opposite ends this summer. While Brown has worked his way up after falling so far down, Morris has descended quite a bit since his brilliant start.

“Mook” was playing the best basketball of his career when the season began. In fact, he was one of the few positives in a season that started as underwhelmingly mediocre as the Celtics had. Through the first two-and-a-half months, Morris was playing like a borderline all-star.

In that time, Morris averaged 15.5 points on 50.1 percent shooting and 44.1 percent from three. The Celtics were plus-5.5 with Morris on the floor, with all of the positivity coming from the offensive end, where the offense was plus-11.6 with him on the floor, second only to Kyrie Irving.

Since then, Morris’ production has tailed off. There was bound to be some regression in Marcus’ case, but since the all-star break, he’s playing what could very well be the worst basketball he’s played since becoming a Celtic.

Since the return from the All-Star break, Morris has averaged 13.1 points on 40 percent shooting from the field and 27 percent from three. The Celtics are minus-17.1 with him on the floor during that span. In other words, he’s hurting them badly on both ends.

So, subbing the slumping Morris for the thriving Brown in the starting lineup would seem like an obvious move to make. The Celtics could do it, and no one would bat an eye, but in this time of the season, it wouldn’t be smart to mess with the lineups this late into the season, or more specifically, it wouldn’t be smart to mess with what’s been working for Brown.

Though it took longer than Boston would have liked, Jaylen Brown has found his stride with the second unit this season. Even if Morris has struggled over the last month or so, taking Brown out of a situation where he’s playing at his best and putting him back into a lineup where he struggled could mess up his mojo. It’s unlikely that Brown will be coming off the bench through the duration of his career, but this season, he was meant to play in the second unit.

There are certain players who, despite having the talent to be a starter, are put in the NBA for the sole purpose of ruling over the second unit. Jamal Crawford and Jason Terry fit that certain mold, but there may not be a player that fits that description better than Lou Williams.

At the age of 32, Williams has already done enough to cement his status as one of the best microwave scorers of all time. The 13,135 points that Williams has scored in his NBA career is good for No.194 among all-time points scored. Last week, he surpassed Dell Curry for the No. 1 all-time scorer off the bench. That is impressive whether he started or not. However, if Lou had been a starter for his entire career, those numbers wouldn’t have as much meaning as they most definitely do as a sixth man.

It’s not as much about having as high scoring numbers in his case. It’s more about the purpose of what those numbers do for his team. Williams’ scoring abilities off the bench give his teams an edge that a fair amount of second units don’t have. His impact offensively is so strong that, like Brown over the past month, he usually winds up finishing games. That’s why having guys like Williams or Brown off the bench is important – They bring an advantage.

Another example would be Williams’ teammate, Montrezl Harrell. Doc Rivers, who has a very solid case for Coach of the Year, has elected to start then-Clipper Marcin Gortat and recently acquired big man Ivica Zubac over Harrell at center this season despite it being very clear that Harrell is his best player in the frontcourt.

He does this because Harrell gives LA an edge in the second unit much like Williams does with the energy he brings to the court. Harrell influences the game so much that again, like Williams, he’s usually out there finishing games as well. His skill set makes him a perfect fit in the second unit, and he could very well be Lou’s best competition for Sixth Man of the Year.

Those are examples of players who could be starters if their team wanted them to. They just play better when they come off the bench, but are there players who – despite being a starting-caliber player – are not a good fit in their starting lineup?

As it turns out, Derrick Favors is one such player. It’s been a much-debated controversy in Utah now about whether Favors should be starting in the frontcourt alongside Rudy Gobert for the Jazz. Honestly, those two aren’t bad together, but they play so much better when they pair up with a floor spacer in the frontcourt instead of each other.

In two-man lineups, Favors and Gobert are a plus-1.4 together. Defensively, the two of them are great together, giving up 98.3 points per 100 possessions. Alas, they only score 99.7 points per 100 possessions. Compare their two-man lineup to one with either Joe Ingles or Jae Crowder.

Favors and Ingles: +6.1
Favors and Crowder: +2.6
Gobert and Ingles: +4.5
Gobert and Crowder: +4.1

To be clear, Favors is good enough to be a starter. He just might not have the best frontcourt partner to be paired with.

When you take all of this in, it’s fair to say that to a certain extent, starting is overrated because it has no bearing on who plays the most minutes. What’s most important really is who finishes the game. Sometimes it’s the starters while at other times, it’s one or two bench players. It all comes down to who is the most reliable.

Because of this, in the Celtics’ case, the more accurate conclusion is that Brown should be getting more minutes than Morris rather than he should be replacing him in the starting lineup. That is, if he keeps this up.

No matter what Boston decides to do, one final question must be brought to our attention – Does anyone else think it’s an odd coincidence that Brown’s and Morris’ productions both started trending in opposite directions after the two of them got into that skirmish back in January?

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March Madness

NBA Daily: Four Prospects Ready To Rise In NCAA Tournament

Every March brings a collection of mock draft risers ahead of combine season, but there are four names worth your attention this spring, writes Ben Nadeau.

Ben Nadeau

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Ah, it’s almost that time of year, folks.

With conference tournaments set to wrap up this weekend, and Selection Sunday not far behind, the mental preparations for the big dance have already begun. Each season, like clockwork, a group of players seemingly raise their stock amongst fans ahead of workouts and the combine. Last season, of course, the largest beneficiary of the bright spotlight was Villanova’s Donte DiVincenzo. During the NCAA Championship, DiVincenzo torched Michigan for 31 points on 5-for-7 from long range — then once he measured out well, it was all but settled. In a matter of two months, DiVincenzo had gone from a near-lock to return to college to a potential lottery selection.

But as Basketball Insiders’ Steve Kyler pointed out alongside his most recent mock draft, importantly, it was a combination of everything that vaulted DiVincenzo into the cultural forefront. With much of the collegiate sphere transfixed, rightfully, on Zion Williamson’s return to Duke, plus his renewed efforts with top prospects Cam Reddish and R.J. Barrett, most of the collective draft class has just slipped on by. So although scouts may have a handle on the NCAA’s very best prospects, there are plenty of other cases worth adding to join to the pre-tournament hype conversation.

Given that March Madness kicks off on Tuesday, there’s no better moment to investigate the portfolios of some potential risers. Again, a stellar showing in the tournament won’t do it alone — but, regardless, these are four players that could do a ton of damage between now and the NBA Draft in June.

Eric Paschall, Villanova

Speaking of DiVincenzo, the Wildcats have sent a handful of players to the NBA over the last three years and senior Eric Paschall appears to be next in line. The 6-foot-8 forward bided his time alongside stars like Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson, but the former All-Tournament selectee has bloomed as Villanova’s main man. Over 32 contests, Paschall has averaged 16.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 2.1 three-pointers per game, helming his now-depleted squad to 23 wins.

Although he hasn’t collected the same awards that Brunson did last year, NBA teams tend to love ready-to-contribute Wildcats, no matter their age.

Paschall will be 23 once his rookie year begins in the fall but he’s got big-game confidence and oodles of experience already. On Thursday, Paschall scored 20 points and 10 rebounds to pace No. 25 Villanova past Providence in Big East Tournament play. There are some concerns over his pro-level fit as a power forward, but his massively improved three-point conversion mark will definitely have scouts back on board.

Of note, Paschall was unanimously named to the All-Big East First Team and he’s currently heating up ahead of another deep Villanova run. Paschall’s fantastic put-back helped the Wildcats force overtime against Xavier on Friday, while his clutch three-pointer and subsequent free throws then iced it.

Jaxson Hayes, Texas

Texas’ newest rim-protecting impact player is the 6-foot-11 Jaxson Hayes — a well-executing shot blocker and walking highlight reel… sound familiar? While the comparisons to Jarrett Allen are simply unavoidable at this point, Hayes has been a worthy target alone based on his slow, but steady improvement throughout the 2018-19 campaign. Through 32 games, the freshman has averaged 10.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.2 blocks on 72.8 percent from the field. Those standout numbers — blocks and field goal percentage — rank as 23rd and second-best in Division I, respectively.

In Hayes’ best performance yet, the big man pulled down 15 points, six rebounds and five blocks during a mid-season victory over rival Oklahoma. Earlier this month, Hayes was named the Big 12 Freshman of the Year, an honor recently bestowed upon Trae Young, Josh Jackson and Myles Turner. Along with Allen and Turner, Haynes joins Mohamed Bamba as highly-rated former Longhorns with huge professional-level projections — that’s not bad company to keep.

Unfortunately, at 16-16, Texas now faces an uphill battle to even reach the big dance. Much worse, Hayes played just 14 minutes before leaving the game with an injury during their loss to No. 3 Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament on Thursday. Head coach Shaka Smart said he hoped “it’s not extremely serious” but a status update has not been revealed as of publishing. However, as an athletic leaper and instinctual defender, Hayes remains one of the top long-term projects, injured or not.

And with moments like these, it won’t be long until the country takes notice as well — even if he’s sadly done for the season now.

Tre Jones, Duke

Of the names on this list, Tre Jones’ line is certainly the least jaw-dropping — 8.9 points, 5.4 assists and 2.1 steals — but he’s been the fourth mouth to feed behind the Blue Devils’ trio of future top five picks. Still, Jones has been a steadying force for the star-studded side, even seeing a healthy uptick in the three weeks that Williamson was sidelined. During Duke’s slim loss to North Carolina a week ago, Jones chipped in with nine points, five rebounds, seven assists and two steals.

With Williamson back in the lineup versus Syracuse on Thursday, Jones dropped 15 points and eight assists — which, long story short, proves the court general is good no matter who is on the floor. While those statistics aren’t enough to push Jones into lottery territory, the 19-year-old point guard has some promising upside for a team with less ball-dominating assets already.

Although head coach Mike Krzyzewski‎ dreams of a sophomore year return, Jones’ laser-sharp distribution and above-average defense will make him a popular name this spring. Jones’ 3.73 assist-to-turnover ratio is third-best in the entire nation and his ability to drop picture-perfect passes to Duke’s sky-walking dunkers has made them appointment viewing all season.

And if you’re feeling some slight déjà vu right now, that’s for good reason. Back in 2014-15, Tyus Jones, Tre’s older brother, was an electric playmaker for a Blue Devils team that won it all. But if you see Tre knocking down important, pressure-laden shots like Tyus once did, don’t be surprised — that clutch gene still runs in the family.

Jaylen Nowell, Washington

This foursome has covered nearly every corner of the scouting conundrum checklist thus far: Hayes? Too raw. Paschall? Too old. Jones? Too underutilized. While those are all things that front offices may eventually look past when drafting those three in June, Jaylen Nowell falls into zero of those buckets.

Nowell is 19 years old, just won Pac-12 Player of the Year and seems poised to lead Washington to their longest tournament run in over a decade. Heading into the postseason, Nowell is leading the Huskies in points (16.5), assists (3.1) and three-point percentage (44.9), while the guard is their runner-up in rebounds (5.4) and steals (1.2) too. Uncoincidentally, Washington’s 25 wins are the most the college has finished with since Isaiah Thomas led them to 26 and the Sweet 16 in 2009-2010.

In 2018-19, Nowell has topped 18 or more on 15 separate occasions, including a massive 26-point, six-rebound effort against the likely No. 1 overall-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs. Nowell is an incredible dribbler and the sophomore has put plenty of talented defenders on skates — but he’s also been largely hidden in a subpar conference this season. Fundamentally strong, Nowell has shot below 40 percent in just five of Washington’s 32 games so far.

Consistent and reliable, he’ll be their go-to star in the NCAA tournament without a doubt. Before long, the rest of the country will recognize him as one too.

Zion Williamson has been deservedly tough to look away from this season — but collegiate basketball’s biggest showstopper has robbed onlookers of some other incredible narratives as well.

Whether that’s the scrappy lead guard throwing alley-oops to Williamson on the daily, a forgotten National Champion or a budding first-rounder on the opposite coastline, March Madness is shaping up to be another worthy runway for takeoff. Unfortunately, Hayes will likely miss out — even in the now-unlikely circumstance that Texas is selected — but his agile, smooth skillset as a near seven-footer will make him a sought-after interview come draft season.

Between now and April — through a mix of their tournament efforts and combine measurements — an elite group of prospects will rise up mock draft boards once again. Who will it be this year?

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NBA

NBA Daily: What’s Next for Isaiah Thomas?

Shane Rhodes breaks down the situation Isaiah Thomas faces as he is no longer in the Denver Nuggets’ rotation.

Shane Rhodes

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“That Slow Grind” seems to have ground to a halt.

Always a fighter, the former “Mr. Irrelevant” battled through stints with the Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns before he ended up in the ideal situation with the Boston Celtics. As he came into his own, the diminutive Isaiah Thomas positioned himself for an enormous payday. But it never came.

In the midst of a, to say the least, gutsy 2017 postseason performance, Thomas aggravated a hip injury that ended his season and has continued to affect him to this day.

The Celtics traded Thomas that summer to the Cleveland Cavaliers in exchange for Kyrie Irving (as part of a larger trade). Unable to carve out a consistent role, Thomas was then traded to the Los Angeles Lakers. There, he flashed that burst that enabled one of the most prolific offensive seasons in NBA history, but his season ended as it started; Thomas again found himself under the knife, forced to undergo surgery on his deteriorating hip.

Things still haven’t gotten better for him. With the Denver Nuggets, Thomas’ has hit the latest roadblock in what has been an uphill battle back to relevancy.

On February 13, 2019, Thomas debuted for the Nuggets to a standing ovation. From there, it took just nine games for Head Coach Mike Malone to remove him from the rotation. Now, the once great Thomas has been relegated to that of a veteran locker room presence and source of postseason experience. To his credit, Thomas has taken the change in stride, but his future NBA prospects continue to darken.

There are a number of different routes Thomas’ career could take out of Denver this offseason, but what exactly could be next for “The Little Guy?”

As he has become accustomed to, Thomas must persevere in order to continue his NBA dream and he’ll arguably have to do it somewhere other than Denver; the two just aren’t compatible. Thomas, at his best, dominated the ball while Denver, led by Malone and Nikola Jokic, run an offense based on fluidity and movement. If Thomas’ eventual goal is a return to form, or something close to it, he must find a team with an abundance of available guard minutes and one that can take the time to allow Thomas to find his footing again, a team desperate for the scoring punch that Thomas could provide once his feet are under him.

Multiple teams seem to fit that description, including the Phoenix Suns, Orlando Magic and others that lack an effective weapon off the bench.

Thomas could also, as it were, steer into the skid. His career would take a form far different than what he had always envisioned, but it may be the best and most meaningful way for Thomas to remain connected to the NBA. Were he to come to the conclusion that he may not be able to get back to the player he used to be, Thomas could embrace the role that he has found for himself and look to continue in it in the future, either in Denver or elsewhere. The wealth of experience Thomas could provide a team — both from a personal and NBA perspective — could prove invaluable to a young team faced with hardship, mounting expectations or a number of other potential problems.

Likewise, Thomas’ veteran presence and knowledge of the postseason could provide an edge to almost any contender — anything Thomas contributed outside of the locker room would be a bonus.

Thomas could also forgo both of those options and look to rebuild his value in Europe or China before coming back to the NBA as well. Assuming he can maintain his health, Thomas would almost certainly flourish overseas, as many NBA players do, and parlay that into a potential NBA contract.

Thomas, never one to back away from a challenge, would almost certainly look for an NBA opportunity before making a decision that could drastically alter his future. Since he was drafted, the 5’9 point guard has been told that he couldn’t make it in the NBA and, while the circumstances have changed, it would seem out of character for Thomas to just give in to the doubters.

Whatever he does in the end, expect basketball to be in Thomas’ future, in some way, shape or form. Through it all, his passion for the game has never wavered and, while some may see this as the beginning of the end, it would seem foolish to doubt Thomas now.

He certainly won’t be doubting himself.

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