The Brooklyn Nets are coming off a wildly successful season, relative to the season prior. They increased their win total by an impressive 14 games, eclipsing .500 and qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
But instead of seeing an organic rebuild through, the Nets identified an opportunity to put their rebuild into hyper speed. And they took it – signing both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to max contracts. And while it’s become incredibly commonplace for stars to change teams and pair up, the Nets are in the unusual situation of being without one of their new stars – Durant – for what will probably be the entire 2019-20 season.
While the Nets still have more than enough talent to improve on their 2018-19 win-total without Durant, the increased expectations and extra hoopla that goes along with playing in Brooklyn may result in those within the organization feeling added pressure to achieve success sooner than later. So what do the Nets need to happen for 2019-20 to be considered a success?
Before we dive into the keys to success, it’s worth noting that while — as said in the Nets’ 2019-20 Season Preview — this year should be viewed as an opportunity to build a foundation. We can assume that the Nets will instead be judged harshly almost immediately — and even more so when they inevitably struggle. Therefore, the Nets will need a lot to break their way to receive praise from outside the locker room.
So what, pray tell, do the Nets need to go right in order for 2019-20 to be deemed a success? The following is a list of three things that could greatly improve the Nets’ in 2019-20 – none of which are moonshots, but none are guarantees, either.
Uncle Drew Stays Injury-Free
The first thing that must be in place is a healthy Irving. Irving’s impact on the game is obvious. He can score from almost anywhere on the floor, breakdown defenses off-the-dribble regardless of who’s defending him and create for teammates like few others can.
But in order to affect the game, he must remain healthy. Irving hasn’t played in 70 or more games since 2016-17. In fact, Irving has only played 70 or more games in three of his eight professional seasons. And he’s played in less 60 games in three separate seasons, too.
Irving has suffered from numerous ailments throughout his NBA career (and even before). including an injured toe/foot in college and a concussion early in career. He also sprained his shoulder, strained his hip (twice) and broke his hand, finger and jaw – just to name a few. He was also famously shut down following Game 1 of the 2016 NBA Finals (broken knee cap) and for most of the second-half part of the 2017-18 season (knee soreness resulting in surgery) – the latter also caused him to also miss the entire 2018 NBA Playoffs.
To say that Irving is injury prone may be a stretch, but there is a clear history – especially with his knees. And what’s more concerning, Irving already suffered an injury in his first season with the Nets – before the calendar even turned to October; he suffered a facial fracture – which is nowhere near serious enough to force him to miss time, but it will force him to wear a mask. So as much as the Nets’ roster, organization and coaching staff will look to Irving to lead the way on-the-court, he must be available to do so. And staying healthy is a big part of that equation.
Kyrie Irving Takes Charge
The second thing the Nets must have break their way to reach their full potential in 2019-20 is for Irving to grow into a leadership role. Historically, Irving’s leadership style has left much to be desired. He seems to disengage from teammates and rub them the wrong way when he’s needed most.
To his credit, Irving owned up to his past transgressions at the Nets 2019-20 media day.
“A lot of those battles I thought I could battle through (in Boston’s) team environment, I wasn’t ready for,” Irving said. “And I failed those guys. I didn’t give them everything I could have during that season. In terms of me being a leader and bringing everyone together, I’ve failed.”
While it’s nice to see Irving taking responsibility, a plan to improve is equally important. Irving also alluded to not taking the “necessary steps to get counseling or therapy” in past seasons, and specifically while dealing with various stressors in Boston.
Irving also said that he didn’t let others (teammates) close because, “a lot of the joy I had from basketball was sucked away from me.”
Irving is a smart and savvy individual, and he understands that interacting with the media is all about sincerity. Hopefully for Irving and the Nets, Irving’s statements were entirely genuine – and there is no reason to suspect otherwise. But more importantly, he’s hopefully put a support network around him – especially if he recognizes that professional situations have become overwhelming in the past. The Nets badly need an engaged and team-centric Irving to set the tone for their roster in 2019-20. And it’s pretty clear that – at least at times – Irving is the only guy capable of slowing himself down.
Caris LeVert’s Time To Shine
The final key to the Nets short-term success is Caris LeVert understanding his role now and in the future. LeVert appeared to be on track for his first All-Star appearance last season, but a foot injury limited him to 40 games in 2018-19. No one is questioning if LeVert is capable of stepping into the side kick role alongside Irving. After all, LeVert has experience playing alongside a high-usage point guard. In fact, the best comparison to what this season might be like for LeVert is probably the end of last season after he returned from injury.
Upon LeVert’s return, teammate D’Angelo Russell had blossomed into something of a star. Russell posted a usage rate of 33.6 in the 2019 playoffs, whereas Irving’s was only 29.8 through the same span (albeit in two series vs. the Nets one). And while head coach Kenny Atkinson was clearly more cautious with a recently healed LeVert than he will be this season, LeVert still averaged 16 points and 4.3 assists while shooting nearly 50 percent from the field and 45 percent on three-pointers through the first-round series against Philadelphia — not bad. And after a summer of conditioning and body work, we should only expect more.
But the bigger challenge for LeVert will be the mental side of blocking out the noise about a possible Durant return this season, controlling only what he can, and then taking a backseat to Durant upon his return.
On paper, that shouldn’t be a problem. LeVert is a scorer and slasher who plays well on-and-off the ball and converts effectively from multiple spots on the court – LeVert shot 33.3 percent from three-point land, 40.4 percent from 10-16 feet from the basket, 40.3 percent from 3-10 feet and 59.4 percent at the rim (he surprisingly shot 26.7 percent from 16 feet to the perimeter, which was probably a point of emphasis for him in the offseason).
But the game isn’t played on paper. LeVert is only 25 years-old and might feel he’s ready to take on a bigger role. He may also struggle with shifting to a role that’s predicted on playing off-the-ball even more – especially if he’s forced to do so midway through the season without time to prepare in practices, training camp and preseason exhibitions.
Optimistic Nets’ fans will point out that the third-fiddle role worked out well for Klay Thompson in Golden State playing alongside Steph Curry and Durant. But Thompson’s game is uniquely crafted to complement traditional scorers – remember when Thompson famously scored 43 points on the Knicks last season while dribbling the ball only four times? Very few players have that skillset or the freedom to play that style. And with Durant and Irving (rightfully) dominating much of the ball – and without a motion-heavy offense like Kerr’s to keep the ball and players moving – LeVert may struggle to get touches.
Atkinson will have his hands full in keeping all of his scorers happy, and LeVert could be the odd man out. If LeVert begins looking too far ahead, it could negatively affect both the present and the future equally. However, if he remains in the moment and capitalizes on the opportunities with which he’s presented, the Nets could have an even bigger big three next season than they think they do at the moment.
The Nets are primed for success in 2019-20 and beyond, but their unique situation with Durant and his rehabilitation process means they need additional output from a select few players – namely Irving and LeVert. The team needs Irving to remain healthy and grow into a locker room leader, and Brooklyn needs LeVert to block out rumors about Durant returning this season – which will inevitably swirl in a market like New York – while remaining flexible upon Durant’s return, whenever that may be.
If all of those things happen as prescribed, the Nets could find themselves ahead of schedule and ready to contend as soon as this season.
But if any of the above go awry, the Nets’ dynasty could be over before it begins.
NBA Daily: Can the Hawks Keep Up Their Strong Play?
Drew Maresca analyzes the Atlanta Hawks strong play and looks ahead at how they’ll fare in the final 16 games of the season.
This season’s condensed schedule has resulted in less time to assess teams and the transactions they made at the trade deadline or in the buyout market. So it’s understandable if you wrote off the Atlanta Hawks as the bust of 2020-21 – but make no mistake about it, the Hawks are surging.
As alluded to above, Atlanta began the year slowly. They started off 11-16. Trae Young played relatively well through that stretch, averaging 26.6 points, 9.3 assists per game and shooting 37.1% on three-point attempts – but the results just weren’t there.
And while you can debate if Young was a catalyst for or a victim of his team’s poor start, he bore the brunt of it. After he was named an All-Star in the 2019-20 season, he was left off the team this season, as the narrative around him has shifted to that of someone hunting for fouls who could be hurting the game more than he’s helping it.
Surprisingly, Atlanta decided to keep its core group together, opting to hang onto John Collins despite his butting heads on offensive philosophy with coach Lloyd Pierce and Young, separately. According to The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner and Sam Amick, Collins voiced displeasure in a January film session over the timing of certain shot attempts and a needed to get settled into offensive sets more quickly.
Rather than succumb to the trade rumors, the Hawks decided that Pierce was at fault and or lost the locker room. Per The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner, Sam Amick and David Aldridge, Young, Cam Reddish and other Hawks were reportedly on board with a potential change and so a move was made.
At the time it appeared shortsighted. But in hindsight, it was exactly what the Hawks needed.
While there are still questions to be answered around Collins and his long-term fit in Atlanta, especially since he’ll become a restricted free agent this Summer and little progress was made in negotiations last offseason, the Hawks are 16-6 under interim head coach Nate McMillian.
In fairness to Pierce, the Hawks are just beginning to get healthy. Danilo Gallinari and 2020 lottery pick Onyeka Okongwu recently returned from injuries, with the former playing a key role, averaging 13.4 points on 40.7% shooting from deep; Gallinari is back on the mend, though, with foot soreness.
But the Hawks were also without guard Bogdan Bogdanovic from mid-January until early March. And they are still without Reddish and De’Andre Hunter, both of whom are instrumental to the Hawks success.
Still, the Hawks have pushed through. Lou Williams, who was added via trade for Rajon Rondo at the deadline, should definitely help. Williams is a walking bucket and he’s matched his Clippers output through nine games with Atlanta (12 points, 3.5 assists and 2.0 rebounds per game.)
A significant result of their strong play is that Atlanta is currently tied for fourth in the Eastern Conference, meaning that the Hawks could realistically secure home-court for the first-round of the playoffs. But before the Hawks do so, there are some questions that need to be answered.
First up, how do the Hawks manage their rotation when they haven’t even seen lots of combinations of their best players on the floor together?
When healthy, the Hawks are incredibly deep. There are the presumed starters: Young, Bogdanovic, Kevin Huerter, Gallinari and Capela. And there’s the bench: Collins, Gallinari, Reddish, Hunter, Williams, Solomon Hill and Okongwu.
Remember, McMillian has only been the coach since March 2, Williams was just added in late March and Hunter hasn’t played since late January.
Coach McMillian has been around long enough to know that 12-man rotations simply don’t work in the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Hawks, they haven’t had nearly enough time to land on a starting lineup, let alone which players work best together.
Atlanta has just 16 games remaining to figure it out. And they can’t waste a single game.
And that brings us to a second challenge: while it is nearly impossible for the Hawks to overtake the 3rd-place Milwaukee Bucks, Atlanta is far from guaranteed the fourth seed. As previously mentioned they are tied with the Celtics, meaning they could just as easily find themselves in the fifth spot. And while the Hawks have the tenth-easiest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon.com, the Celtics possess the eleventh-easiest. And the Celtics are surging, too, having won seven of their last 10 contests.
But it’s not just Boston. the New York Knicks, Miami HEAT and Charlotte Hornets are all within striking distance, too. While Charlotte and New York have their own challenges ahead that make them less-than-likely to pass Atlanta, Miami’s fate is closely aligned with that of Victor Oladipo and his recently reinjured knee. If Oladipo returns quickly with little to no effects, the HEAT could surpass be problematic for the Hawks and a number of other Eastern Conference opponents.
And if you’re really cynical, you can focus on who Atlanta has beaten in its time under McMillan. Over the course of the 22 games in which McMillian has been interim head coach, 11 of the team’s 16 wins have come against sub-.500 opponents – and another three were against teams that are exactly .500.
Looked at differently, the McMillian-led Hawks have defeated just two winning teams, one of which was against the Anthony Davis-less Lakers in a contest in which LeBron James exited after just 11 minutes due to injury.
So kudos to Atlanta for turning around a season that easily could have went sideways. But there is much left for the Hawks, an untested team who’s beaten mostly teams that they should, to prove.
NBA PM: Defensive Player of the Year Watch
It’s clear at this point in the season that Rudy Gobert should be the Defensive Player of the Year. But is there any way another player could unseat him for the award?
The seventh edition of The Defensive Player of the Year Watch for Basketball Insiders is here! In this week’s ranking, there’s not much change beyond the addition of the formerly-injured Philadelphia 76ers star, Joel Embiid. It’s impossible to leave him off of this list and it should come as no surprise if he ends the year as both a contender for this award as MVP. Sure, he’d have to outplay Rudy Gobert, but he’s only a streak of lockdown games away.
As the last full month of games for the NBA season gets underway, it’s time to see who else’s elite defensive play has kept them in the running.
1. Rudy Gobert (Previous: 1)
The Utah Jazz center has been the clear frontrunner for a third career Defensive Player of the Year award, as well as his third in the last four seasons. There is no denying the fact that the Stifle Tower has been the focal point of the defense throughout their unprecedented run with the best record in the NBA. When Gobert is on the floor, it’s going to be hard for an opposing player to get an uncontested shot around the rim, and his presence is a factor night-in and night-out.
Coming off a strong month of March where he averaged 3.5 blocks per game, the Frenchman has tailed off a bit, averaging only 1.6 blocks per game midway through April. While this recent downward trend isn’t lessening his case, Gobert still holds the No. 2 spot with 2.8 blocks per game.
Diving deeper into the numbers is where Gobert really shines, however. His defensive rating is 102.3 this season, second to only Jazz teammate Mike Conley, per NBA Advanced Stats. He also finds himself third in defensive win shares with 0.166. It’s clear that Gobert is the leading candidate for another DPotY, even the likely winner barring any significant setbacks to his season.
Even the center is our clear frontrunner, Ben Simmons may say otherwise.
Ben Simmons comments on his Defensive Player of the Year race against Rudy Gobert: “I scored 42 points on him in Utah, and apparently I’m not a scorer.”
— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) April 13, 2021
2. Joel Embiid (Previous: N/A)
Returning from a left knee bone bruise, the 7-foot center has gotten right back to the elite level few others can match. In a matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Embiid showed the NBA that he is back and out for blood. Over 27 minutes, Embiid totaled 27 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 blocks. The star took over in a short amount of time as the 76ers trounced the Thunder 117-93 – but his defensive impact should not be taken for granted.
Stacking up against the rest of the league, Embiid ranks in the top five in three major defensive categories: defensive win shares, defensive rating and blocks per game. Embiid is just behind Julius Randle in the defensive win shares statistic with 0.149, good enough for fifth in the NBA, per NBA Advanced Stats. In defensive rating, Embiid is also fifth with a rating of 104.6, just .1 off Marc Gasol.
If Embiid can raise these numbers more in line with Gobert, he may be able to steal the award. Think about it. Giannis Antetokoumpo was able to win the award after an unbelievable season in which he won the MVP – why can’t Embiid do it too?
3. Myles Turner (Previous: 2)
If not for the elite defensive play from Gobert and Embiid, Turner would be the de facto leader in the race. After being a rumored name on the trade market this past offseason, the decision to keep Turner in the fold has paid off for the Indiana Pacers. The league leader in blocks has managed to put together a great season on defense but the Pacers, and specifically Turner himself, have been hurt by injuries.
Where things stand right now, Turner has a sizeable lead in blocks per game with 3.5, 0.7 more than Rudy Gobert. It’s looking more and more likely by the day that Turner will once again be the leader in blocks in the NBA, a feat he also achieved in 2018-19.
While this is an outstanding feat for the young center, it won’t be enough to get him this coveted award – there’s always next season though.
4. Mike Conley (Previous: 3)
The Jazz floor general has made his impact felt this season on both ends of the floor following a down season. Many had written off Conley and bashed the Jazz for the trade as he just didn’t look like the same player, but he has completely turned that around. Needless to say, without Conley, it’s hard to imagine the Jazz having the success they have had this season. Together, Conley and Gobert have been a nightmare for opposing offenses as they constantly apply pressure to the ball.
But the advanced statistics are what truly put Conley’s season in perspective. In the defensive rating category, Conley has been the league leader for some time now. While it has fluctuated throughout the season, he has still managed to keep an incredible 100.9 defensive rating, per NBA Advanced Stats. He also ranks second in DWS with 0.171, just .02 off the league leader, LeBron James. Conley has also been very efficient in stealing the ball as he is tied for seventh with 1.3 steals per game.
If a guard were deserving enough for this award it would be Conley, but due to the play of the guys ahead of him, it doesn’t look like he will have the strength to win it.
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo (Previous: 4)
The Greek Freak has a had very underrated season on defense, if not overall. He hasn’t been the topic of the MVP conversation as he was the past two seasons, but his defensive presence in the paint is undeniable.
Antetokounmpo has averaged a stellar 1.1 steals and 1.3 blocks per game, all thanks to those incredible athletic abilities and length. He also ranks seventh in defensive win shares with a DWS of 0.139, per NBA Advanced Stats. His defensive rating of 106.6 also ranks in the top 15.
While the Bucks have looked like a contender out of the Eastern Conference this season – their franchise cornerstone won’t be named the winner of any awards this year.
Honorable Mention: Jimmy Butler (Previous: 5)
The leader of the Miami HEAT is putting together another elite defensive season. Currently, he is the league leader in steals per game with 2.1, a lead he has held steady for weeks now. Butler ranks seventh in defensive rating with a mark of 105.4, per NBA Advanced Stats. He also ranks sixth with a DWS of 0.148. But if the HEAT surge through the last stretch of the season, Butler could earn more consideration for this prestigious award.
As the last full month of the regular season takes off, it has been clear that the Utah Jazz have the frontrunner for the DPotY award – plus another major runner-up contender to boot.
Will anyone else be able to top Gobert’s defensive output this season? It doesn’t seem likely, but anything is possible in this crazy, ever-changing landscape.
NBA Daily: Is Mitchell Robinson’s Injury a Blessing in Disguise?
Drew Maresca explores what Mitchell Robinson’s injury means to the New York Knicks — this season and beyond.
The New York Knicks are right in the middle of a playoff push. They are currently in the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference and they appear to be in good shape to at least qualify for the play-in tournament, 6.5 games ahead of the 11th seeded Toronto Raptors.
The Knicks have remained in the playoff picture despite starting center, Mitchell Robinson, missing 23 of the team’s 55 games.
Most recently, Robinson exited a March 27 contest against the Milwaukee Bucks in the first quarter with a broken foot. Including the March 27 game against Milwaukee, New York has won five of their last 10 games without Robinson.
As recently as last season, Robinson was viewed as the team’s answer at center – and, along with RJ Barrett, the team’s only long-term building blocks. This take has aged badly given the progress made by Julius Randle and the success had by rookie Immanuel Quickley (and to a lesser degree, Obi Toppin.)
But in celebrating the team’s present, it’s fair to question their future – does New York’s success without Robinson mean he’s expendable?
The 2020-21 season has been challenging for Robinson, who already missed 15 games earlier this year with a broken right hand. Somewhat miraculously, the Knicks have continued their strong play without Robinson In total, New York is 13-11 without Robinson and just 15-16 with him.
The timing of the injury is apropos.
The Knicks and Robinson were expected to engage in contract discussions this offseason. They still have some time to figure out a path forward, but the injury makes an otherwise straightforward contract negotiation trickier. The Knicks possess a team option for Robinson in 2021-22 for $1.8 million, which is significantly below market value for a player of Robinson’s stature.
Robinson is averaging 8.3 points, 8.1 rebounds and (a career-low) 1.5 blocks per game. He’s also averaging a career-high 27.5 minutes per game, due — in part — to his ability to avoid fouls. Robinson averaged 3.2 fouls per game last season, fouling out of seven games. He’s down to 2.8 personal fouls per game this year and hasn’t fouled out of a single contest.
A long-term agreement appeared likely between the Knicks and Robinson prior to his (presumably) season-ending foot injury. Similarly skilled, albeit more polished, players have signed significant deals in the recent past. Clint Capella signed a 5 year/$90 million deal in 2018, which is higher than what most expected Robinson to fetch — but it probably would have been referenced in negotiations.
Following the injury, a smaller deal is likely — if at all. The Knicks will probably still pick up Robinson’s option, but they could either trade him or let him play out next season without an extension. And while the Knicks must decide if they’d like to prioritize Robinson, Robinson must decide how much of a discount, if any, he’s willing to accept from New York (or anyone.) Robinson just signed with his sixth NBA agent (Thad Foucher of the Wasserman Group) and he’s expected to chase some of the money he missed out on by skipping the 2018 NBA Draft Combine and falling into the second round.
But Robinson shouldn’t push too hard in negotiations as the Knicks can just as easily turn to someone on their current roster as his replacement — and it would cost them far less in guaranteed money.
Enter Nerlens Noel. Noel has been a pleasant surprise for president Leon Rose and Knicks’ fans alike. He’s averaging 5 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game on the season; but he’s come off the bench for much of it, receiving just 23.1 minutes per game.
But even in limited time, Noel has had a major impact on the team’s defensive. He’s first in the NBA in defensive plus-minus (3.3), second in the percentage of the team’s blocked two-point field goal attempts (8.9%) and third in defensive win share (2.7).
And he’s been even better in Robinson’s absence. In his last 10 games, Noel is averaging 5.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.7 blocks in 26.1 minutes per game.
Noel signed in New York for just one year/$5 million this past offseason. While that is cheap relative to other starting-caliber centers, he’s not doing anything he hasn’t done in the past. Noel is averaging fewer points, assists and steals per game while securing more blocks and essentially the same number of rebounds. So, if teams knew what Noel could do entering 2020-21, why would they pay him more next season for the same output? Unfortunately, free agency is a fickle beast and there’s no rhyme or reason as to why teams weren’t interested in like Noel last year — but the Knicks will likely have the upper hand in negotiations.
Ultimately, the Knicks’ desire to keep Noel shouldn’t influence their preference to re-sign Robinson. Remember, Robinson set the single-season record for field goal percentage last season (74.2%) and he averages greater than two blockers per game over his career. He’s an elite lob target, and he closes out on shooters better than just about anyone in the league.
Contract negotiations are a zero-sum game in which one party wins at the expense of the other. Robinson and the Knicks should enter into negotiations delicately. Robinson probably feels owed given his cumulative salary relative to his past performance, and the Knicks were probably hoping for a more concrete body of work, leading to more certainty around an offer.
The reality is that Robinson has struggled with injuries — this year and in previous seasons — and his game hasn’t developed significantly since his rookie season. He is also a very unique talent who should get even better with more time under coach Thibodeau.
So for the best possible outcome, all parties must concede.
The Knicks are best with both Robinson and Noel. As much as Robinson’s injury will hinder how far New York can go this season, it can be key in their future. If Robinson and Noel are amenable to the idea of returning at a slight discount, it can ensure their defensive excellence continues — and if it’s at the right number(s), it should allow for considerable financial flexibility to continue maneuvering.
And the Knicks haven’t been savvy maneuverers in a long time.