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Underrated 2016 NBA Free Agents

Eric Saar takes a look at several 2016 free agents that will be looking to get paid this summer.

Eric Saar

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This is the offseason of Kevin Durant as the Oklahoma City Thunder superstar is hitting free agency for the first time in his career. A lot of teams have cap space to go after him, though many believe it is likely that he will stay in Oklahoma City with Russell Westbrook and company (depending on how the postseason goes for the Thunder).

With the salary cap rising, nearly all of the contracts handed out this offseason will likely seem inflated, but that’s simply a result of the NBA’s changing financial landscape. From mediocre players, to solid rotation players and all the way up to the superstars, free agents are going to get paid serious money this offseason.

Here we are covering some underrated free agents in the class of 2016. These aren’t the top-tier free agents, but they are those that are improving and still have significant room to keep developing.

The projected salaries are just estimates since the hard numbers don’t come out until the NBA’s moratorium in early July.

Harrison Barnes

Barnes is a talented forward who benefits from playing alongside the sharpshooting backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson as well as Draymond Green. This season, Barnes averaged the most minutes (30.9) and points (11.7) per game of his career. However, his overall rebounding numbers and three-point percentage have dipped.

He is a restricted free agent, meaning that the Warriors can match any offer sheet he potentially signs with another team in order to retain him. It’s possible that the Warriors may decline to match a max-offer sheet, but it is very likely that he will remain with Golden State. The question for any team that pursues him is how will he fare as one of the top offensive options while drawing a lot of defensive focus from opponents? Also, will he regress at all if he is no longer playing alongside players as good as Curry, Thompson and Green?

Barnes has four years of experience, so his max contract would be 25 percent of the salary cap, which is projected next year at $92 million, putting his contract at roughly $23 million per season.

Nicolas Batum

The French swingman is finishing up his eighth year in the league and will likely be one of the second-tier players signed once Durant and others are off the market. Batum averaged a career-high in points per game (14.9) this season as the starting small forward for the Charlotte Hornets. His field goal percentages need to come up, but he is a good defender and a versatile all-around player that can fit on nearly any team. And at only 27, he is just entering his prime.

Batum has a nice role with the Hornets and fits well under head coach Steve Clifford, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he re-signs with the Hornets.

Batum is likely to receive a max-deal considering his age, versatility and the amount of money teams will have to spend. Since he has been in the league for eight years, his max contract would be 30 percent of the cap, so his max salary would be around $25.9 million, which will increase with annual raises. Other teams can only offer four years and smaller raises.

Jordan Clarkson

Clarkson’s role should increase next season if he returns to the Los Angeles Lakers with the retirement of NBA legend Kobe Bryant.

However, the athletic, former University of Missouri star may go elsewhere as he is a restricted free agent. His free agency is somewhat unique since he fits within the Arenas Rule, but the point is the Lakers can retain him if they choose to do so.

The likely scenario is the Lakers will re-sign Clarkson, who averaged 15.5 points per game this year and is a building block for Los Angeles. If he ends up on another team, he could likely fill in as an excellent sixth man potentially.

Clarkson is a promising young talent. He needs to work on improving his defense and being a more effective playmaker, but he has shown a lot of promise in his short NBA career.

Jeremy Lin

Since the craziness of Linsanity in New York back during the 2011-12 season, Jeremy Lin has bounced around the league, but seems to have found a home in Charlotte. He has a player option to stay in Charlotte next season, though, he likely will test free agency since there is so much free agent money to go around and a lack of talent to spend it on.

Lin is only averaging 11.7 points per game as opposed to his 14.6 in New York or 13.4 in Houston, but is doing it in a reduced role, primarily coming off the bench for a more competitive team. The hype of Linsanity has worn off, but Lin has transformed himself into a legitimate NBA player, who at 27 would be a nice addition for many teams. His shooting percentages could be better, but he has shown enough development and impact this season that someone will give him a nice offer if he goes into free agency this offseason.

Evan Fournier

Fournier really took a leap forward in his second year with the Orlando Magic after being traded from the Denver Nuggets. This season, Fournier started 71 of the 79 games he played in for the Magic. His minutes per game went up (28.6 to 32.5) as did his points per game (12.0 to 15.4). What is probably most impressive and key to why he’ll be paid well this offseason is how he increased his shooting percentages. He brought his three-point percentage from 37.8 percent all the way up to 40 percent, which puts him among the better shooters in the league. His free throw percentage went up significantly as well — from 72.8 percent to 83.6 percent.

Fournier is a good shooter that could really help a lot of teams and he’s only 23 years old. He’s restricted though, so the Magic could decide to match whatever he is offered.

Kent Bazemore

Bazemore has certainly come a long way from being the hilarious, arm-waving, end-of-the-bench cheerleader he once was for the Golden State Warriors. He also played well for their D-League team back in 2012-13. He then spent one season with the Los Angeles Lakers and subsequently signed a two-year contract with the Atlanta Hawks, where he has been a solid contributor.

This season he averaged 11.6 points in only 27.8 minutes per game and started 68 of the 75 games he played in, mostly at small forward but also at shooting guard.

Bazemore has really taken a step in his development and as an athletic wing. He was also very good in the Hawks’ first-round victory over the Boston Celtics. For more on Bazemore’s success and why he’ll do well this summer, check out Lang Greene’s recent article about his significant improvement.

Moe Harkless

Harkless is a restricted free agent for the Portland Trail Blazers. His numbers (6.4 points and 3.6 rebounds per game) may not jump off the page right away, but remember that he was only playing 18.7 minutes for the Blazers during the regular season. A closer look reveals why he could be very attractive to teams this summer.

Harkless is only 22 years old, has a great work ethic and has the potential to be a talented 3-and-D player (which many teams are searching for in today’s NBA). Per-36 minutes, he averaged 12.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.2 steals per game, while shooting 47.4 percent from the field and 27.9 percent from beyond the arc. Those are impressive increases from last year and it displays just how much his offseason work and a change of scenery has benefited Harkless this season.

Even better, Harkless has maintained and, for the most part, improved on those numbers this postseason. He was an important part of Portland’s first-round win over the L.A. Clippers, averaging 12.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 0.7 assists and 0.7 steals while shooting 56.4 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from three-point range. Harkless’ versatility on both ends of the court and his ability to switch at the two forward positions with Al-Farouq Aminu helped the Blazers advance (though they did get some help with Los Angeles suffering several injuries to key players).

If he can keep up his development, he’ll be a great pick-up for any team in free agency. The market is unclear for him at this point, but he has played his way into a nice salary increase this upcoming offseason.

Based in Arizona, Eric Saar is an analyst for Basketball Insiders. He has covered the league for several years. He loves to converse about the NBA on Twitter, so follow him at @Eric_Saar. Eric graduated with honors from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication.

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NBA Daily: What Should the Raptors Do at the Trade Deadline?

The Toronto Raptors are surging. Bobby Krivitsky examines whether they’ve been good enough to keep their current core intact or if they should take a different approach at the trade deadline.

Bobby Krivitsky

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After losing eight of their first 10 games to start the season, the Toronto Raptors have won 14 of their last 23 matchups, surging to fifth in the Eastern Conference.

The Raptors had to quickly recharge during a truncated offseason, get acclimated to a new setting and adjust to Aron Baynes and Chris Boucher stepping into the void left by the departures of Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. Despite all of that, they’re scoring the 10th-most points per 100 possessions, are 13th in defensive rating and have the ninth-best net rating in the NBA.

Through Toronto’s ups and downs this season, they’ve been able to count on Fred VanVleet. After signing a four-year, $85 million contract to remain with the Raptors, the fifth-year guard from Wichita State has once again taken his game to a higher level. He’s averaging 20 points, 6.7 assists and 4.5 rebounds — all career-bests — and eighth in the NBA with 1.7 steals per contest. It’s discomforting to imagine where this team would be if he had left.

Then there’s Pascal Siakam, who’s finally shaken off a rough second-round series against the Boston Celtics last postseason and thawed from an icy start to his 2020-21 campaign. Siakam is averaging 20.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. One of the main reasons for his turnaround has been Siakam’s growth as a facilitator: those 4.8 assists represent a career-best. And, with the Raptors shifting more towards small-ball, Siakam is thriving working off a screen from guards, spotting where the defense is vulnerable and taking advantage of it.

Another crucial component of Siakam’s improvement is him playing with more energy on the defensive end. Effort can only take a defender so far, but when that individual is 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan and has the strength, quickness and intelligence to guard positions one-through-five for varying amounts of time, doing so can have a significant impact on the outcome of the game.

 

 

While Siakam’s production has more of an impact on the Raptors’ ceiling than any other player on the team, Kyle Lowry, alongside VanVleet, establishes Toronto’s floor. Lowry, who turns 35 in March, is averaging 18 points, 6.5 assists, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game this season. He remains the heart and soul of the team. That makes it even more impressive that, despite losing him to a thumb injury during a Feb. 16 matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto went on to win that night and again two days later, stretching their winning streak to four games (including a victory over the Philadelphia 76ers).

One major change stemming from the Raptors playing small more often is Norman Powell entering the starting lineup. He’s started his last 17 games and is averaging a team-high 21.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals. During that stretch, the sharpshooting Powell is also knocking down 44.4 percent of his 6.4 threes per game and shooting 51.2 percent from the floor. Toronto has won 10 of those 17 games.

Powell gives the Raptors more offensive firepower, allows them to play faster and, when they don’t have a traditional center on the floor, has made it easier for them to switch on defense. It’s an adjustment that’s worked so well for Toronto, even in Lowry’s absence, Baynes came off the bench while DeAndre’ Bembry joined the starting lineup.

So, with the Raptors finding their footing and the March 25 trade deadline inching closer, what’s Toronto’s best course of action? That decision revolves around their plan with Lowry.

Lowry, whose $30 million deal is set to expire after the season, is interested in playing at least two more seasons at a similar value, per Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Are the Raptors willing to meet those demands, paving the way for the franchise icon to spend the remainder of his career with them? Secondly, the Raptors aren’t a title contender right now, which could lead to the two sides working together to send Lowry to a team meeting that criteria by the trade deadline, which also happens to be his 35th birthday.

If it comes to that, Pompey listed the 76ers, Miami HEAT and Los Angeles Clippers as Lowry’s preferred destinations, noting the North Philadelphia native would like to return to his roots. For the Raptors to go through with trading the six-time All-Star, it would likely take multiple first-round picks and promising young players along with any contracts included for salary-matching purposes to be expiring after this season. 

Considering Toronto’s current place in the NBA’s hierarchy, if Lowry intends to leave for a title contender or the Raptors aren’t willing to meet his contractual demands, it’s clear what they should do at the deadline. Trading Lowry isn’t going to net Toronto the return necessary to vault them into the league’s top tier, but it would still figure to serve them better in the long term, even though the Raptors’ resurgence suggests if he’s still on the team after Mar. 25th, they’re once again going to be a difficult out in the playoffs, and they could go as far as the Eastern Conference Finals.

If they want to play the long game, it would also make sense for them to trade Powell, who has an $11.6 million player option he’s likely to decline in the offseason. Granted, he’ll be 28 next season, so it’s not as if re-signing him would be short-sighted.

There’s nothing wrong with preserving the possibility Lowry never dons another team’s jersey — and parting with a franchise icon is never easy. But trading Lowry may be the best bet for the franchise’s future, while it would neither change the fact that the team will someday retire his jersey, nor would it take away from his legacy. In fact, doing right by him and giving Lowry another opportunity to compete for a title may just be the best parting gift the Raptors could give him while also strengthening their own long-term outlook.

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NBA Daily: Don’t Forget About Romeo Langford

Once a top-five high school recruit, Romeo Langford has yet to make an impact in his brief NBA career.

Dylan Thayer

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As a highly-touted high school prospect, Romeo Langford found himself at the fifth spot in the 2018 ESPN Top 100. His play earned him a spot in the 2018 McDonald’s All-American Game among big-name recruits such as Zion Williamson, and after a very successful high school career, the five-star shooting guard decided to take his talents to Indiana over both Kansas and Vanderbilt. 

Langford’s time as an Indiana Hoosier was short-lived as he only spent one year with the team before declaring for the draft. He played in thirty-two games despite tearing a ligament in his thumb. His shooting percentages reflected this injury as he shot a meager 27.2 percent from three and 44.8 percent from the field, per Sports-Reference. Both of these percentages were not reflective of the electric, efficient scorer he was at New Albany High School. 

Selected with the No. 14 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft by the Boston Celtics, there was a lot to be excited about. For starters, the Celtics were able to draft a player just inside the lottery who many thought would be a top-five pick before the 2018-19 NCAA season. They were also able to get a resilient player that grinded through his injury and was still able to pace the BIG 10 in freshman scoring with 16.5 points per game. The potential with a healthy Langford is there, and that’s what led to him being a Boston Celtic.

During a 2019 interview with Boston.com, Celtics head coach Brad Stevens spoke highly of their rookie. 

“If they would have been more on the national radar, and he would have not hurt his thumb, he probably would have been even more discussed,” Stevens said at the Celtics practice facility. “He’s a guy we were all well aware of before his first game at IU.”

If it was not clear by this quote, big things were expected from the former Indiana Mr. Basketball. 

Unfortunately, his first season on the Celtics was not much of one to write home about. Across 32 games, he managed to average only 2.5 points with 1.3 rebounds in 11.6 minutes per game, often finding himself with Boston’s G League affiliate, the Maine Red Claws.

This should not be a big indicator of how things will end up for Langford though – as flourishing Charlotte Hornets star Terry Rozier was also an afterthought off the Celtics’ bench in his first season, even though many people saw his future potential. In a Feb. 7th matchup with the Atlanta Hawks, Langford made the most of a starting opportunity, dropping 16 points on 5-for-11 shooting, including 2-for-5 from three-point range, and 3 blocks. Later, he would then undergo season-ending surgery to repair the scapholunate ligament of his right wrist during the team’s playoff run in the bubble.

As the 2020-21 season heads towards the All-Star break, Langford has yet to suit up as he still is recovering from surgery. But according to a report by NESN, Langford should be healthy enough to return following the pause. 

This then leaves the question: where does Langford fit on the Celtics roster, if at all? Amidst a disappointing start to the season, many fans and people around the Celtics have begun to sound the alarm. When the owner even comes out to 98.5 The Sports Hub and acknowledges the fact that the young Eastern Conference finalists are not currently a contender, there should be plenty of reason to panic.

The Celtics’ troubles have been all over the place this season, but the one that seems to be the most glaring is the lack of explosive scoring outside of Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. There has been some great play off the bench by Payton Pritchard and Robert Williams, but players like Grant Williams, Jeff Teague and Semi Ojeleye have struggled to be consistent factors. 

As the Celtics continue to look for splashes in the trade market, there is a lot of uncertainty around Langford’s future as the team now seems to lack tradable assets outside of the core. 

Despite his long injury, Langford is still a much more desirable piece than Javonte Green or Grant Williams. Moving on from Jeff Teague may be a route that the Celtics opt to take as well because he has failed to make much of an impact off of the bench, and this would open up playing time to test out a 100 percent healthy Langford. 

Langford could bring a great burst of energy off the bench for the Celtics if healthy, and so exciting to see how he fits alongside the outstanding rookie point guard in Pritchard. With Langford on the second unit, it would open up the floor for Tatum as he would have another solid scorer to kick the ball out to. 

Could Langford end up being the guy that fixes the bench scoring problem for the Celtics? Only time will tell, but based on his high school and collegiate careers, he very well might be 𑁋 if he’s still on the team past the deadline.

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NBA Daily: Luke Walton’s Uncertain Future

Could this be it for Luke Walton in Sacramento? David Yapkowitz examines.

David Yapkowitz

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There’s one big question surrounding the Sacramento Kings this season: what, exactly, will become of head coach Luke Walton? Walton, in the second year of a four-year deal he signed back in 2019, has often headlined the group of coaches that are thought most likely to be let go next.

Brought in by the previous regime, Sacramento’s situation has changed considerably since they brought in Walton. Former general manager Vlade Divac has since stepped down and been replaced with Monte McNair. And, often, new management will look to build their team, coaching staff included, in their own mold — that’s nothing really against the current personnel, just that different voices sometimes have different visions and want to construct a team within that vision.

If the team plays well, the new management team may be inclined to ride it out with the current staff. In a somewhat recent example, when Masai Ujiri first took over in the Toronto Raptors front office, the Raptors started surging in the standings and Ujiri held on to Dwane Casey for a while before ultimately replacing him with Nick Nurse. Casey had been hired by former executive Bryan Colangelo.

The Kings are in an interesting scenario in that, despite being a perennial bottom-dweller, expectations have existed for the team for over a decade now, the main expectation being that they would eventually improve beyond that bottom-feeder status. Now, that expectation may be more warranted than ever, as Sacramento has some seriously talented pieces in place, including franchise cornerstone De’Aaron Fox and Rookie of the Year contender Tyrese Haliburton.

In fact, just a few weeks ago, the Kings looked like they might actually be turning things around. On a four-game win streak, with wins over the Los Angeles Clippers and Boston Celtics, they looked like a different team.

Since then, unfortunately, they’ve reverted to the Kings of old. Now, they’re on an eight-game losing streak, their first such skid since 2019.

There are plenty of good teams in the Western Conference and, because of that, at least a couple of them are going to be on the outside looking in come playoff time. Of course, it can be hard to fault teams that show consistent effort and improvement. But that just hasn’t been the Kings, for quite some time now.

The main area of concern for the Kings where they haven’t shown real improvement is on the defensive end. They were already among the bottom half of the league on that end before their most recent skid, while it’s been significantly worse during their last eight games.

It’s always a possibility to bring in a defensive-minded assistant to help with that end, much like Sacramento tried to do on offense this past offseason. To spark the team on that end of the court, the Kings added Alvin Gentry to Walton’s staff and for the most part, it’s worked out: Sacramento is 12th in the league in scoring, up from 22nd last season. They’re also shooting better from three-point range while playing at a quicker pace.

But in order to win in this league, you need to do it on both ends. And that’s something the Kings haven’t shown the ability to do.

Sacramento is allowing 119.6 points per game, dead last in the NBA. Their defensive rating of 118.7 is also last. And, at this point, simply adding an assistant might not do the trick; at this point, it might just be easier (and more effective) for management to simply cut ties with Walton and set up a new staff under a new head coach.

Walton’s popularity and potential as a head coach first piqued during the 2015-16 season with the Golden State Warriors. When he stepped in for Steve Kerr, who took leave from the team to recover from back surgery, Walton guided the team to a 24-0 start and a 39-4 record upon Kerr’s return. While the Warriors were in their second of what would be five-straight runs to the NBA Finals and had a strong foundation already in place, Walton’s involvement in the feat can’t be discounted, while it opened the league’s eyes as to his potential as a head coach.

But later, during Walton’s years as head coach of the Los Angeles Lakers, the team showed slight, if minimal improvement each year at best. In fact, those Lakers were similar to these Kings in that they were a young team with no real experience just trying to get better. And, obviously, it’s much easier to look good when you already have an established unit.

Coaching in the NBA is a tough and often thankless job. When things go right, they get little credit. When they go wrong, the blame lies almost squarely on their head. As with players, sometimes a coaching situation just isn’t the right fit for either party; maybe this Kings’ roster just isn’t built to maximize Walton’s system.

That said, in this particular case, it would probably be best for the Kings to ride the current situation out. Sacramento has shown some improvement from last season and Walton deserves some credit for that. He’s shown constant faith and trust in his rookie, Haliburton, while he has Fox playing at a near All-Star level and Richaun Holmes looking like one of the NBA’s best in the painted area (and an absolute steal, given his contract).

Going forward, it’s worth rolling the dice and seeing if they can’t end this skid and get back to their strong play earlier in the year. Further, it might not be that great an idea to make such a radical structural change halfway through the season when your team might still have a realistic shot at the postseason.

That said, should the team continue to struggle, then it would be wise to revisit the matter in the offseason. If they do, it wouldn’t be much of a reach if McNair decides that two years is enough and that he wants to bring in a head coach of his own choosing.

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