Each week, four of Basketball Insiders’ top writers will break down the latest news and notes around the 2014 NBA Draft. Included is a revised Mock Draft that reflects how each writer sees the draft landscape based on the latest news, workouts and information from in and around the process.
So here is how we see it:
Yannis’ Notebook: My mock indicates the worst-case scenario for Julius Randle, stemming from the reports that he’s going to need foot surgery after the draft. Randle has disputed the claim and while nobody knows his body better than he does, let’s be real here: Adrian Wojnarowski is the most credible and informed reporter in the game. He wouldn’t have put it out there if he didn’t have it from multiple sources.
Going off of the assumption that he is indeed going to need post-draft surgery, it’s going to have an inevitable impact on his draft stock. The competition at the power forward position is fierce. There’s little that separates Randle from Noah Vonleh and Aaron Gordon. They are all fine prospects, but what did give Randle a little bit of an edge over them was his NBA readiness.
Randle is considered one of the most pro-ready prospects in the draft, but missing out on summer league is going to be a real detriment to his development. While everyone else is going to be working out, getting experience playing against professionals and becoming familiar with their system and coaching staff, Randle is going to be restricted to just rehabbing and spectating. He’s expected to be cleared by training camp, but he’s really going to be playing catch up at that point.
In the end, the team that picks Randle is drafting him more for what he’s going to do over the next three years than the 6-8 weeks after the draft. However, making a multi-million investment in someone who needs surgery is a risky move. There’s a lot more uncertainty surrounding Randle, and as a result the other players at his position are going to be given more thought by the teams that were considering drafting him.
Joel’s Notebook: If Julius Randle does have to get foot surgery, as suggested by Yahoo! Sports’ Adrian Wojnarowski on Thursday, I don’t think it will affect his draft stock all that much, especially since he was probably already going to fall in the five-to-nine range, anyway. That’s where I still see him, though Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon and Noah Vonleh may now get snatched up before him.
Last year, three of the top six picks were injured when they were selected, as teams threw caution to the wind in using their top selections on banged-up guys. That didn’t turn out all that well, though, as both Alex Len and Anthony Bennett had unbelievably disappointing rookie seasons and Nerlens Noel never even got on the floor. Let’s hope Randle has a better time getting rehabbed and back to real NBA action, both for his sake and the sake of the team that selects him.
Otherwise, this week feels pretty standard, though I think it’s the first time I’ve ever had Nik Stauskas and Kyle Anderson in the lottery, as well as the first time I’ve had Jusuf Nurkic fall out of it. Nurkic recently signed a four-year contract with his European team, which was a weird thing for him to do considering his draft stock had been so high, but that uncertainty is probably enough to push him out of the lottery. He’s the second-best center prospect in a year where there aren’t many of those, so someone’s going to reach on him. Just not sure it will be a lottery team.
Alex’s Notebook: One of the interesting things about submitting this mock draft every week is hearing what NBA executives think of my picks. Recently, I keep hearing the same thing: “You have Elfrid Payton too low.”
Last week, I had Payton falling to the end of the first round. However, more and more league sources have said it’s unlikely Payton will be on the board that long. Payton is drawing interest from several teams in the teens, and he is even getting serious looks from lottery teams.
The 6’3 point guard has been dominating workouts, which has really helped his draft stock. Initially, there were some questions about how he would fare against NBA-level competition, since he played at Louisiana-Lafayette and didn’t face the toughest opposition. However, after several impressive workouts, that no longer seems to be a concern. Executives who have watched Payton work out have raved about him.
Last season, Payton averaged 19.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 2.3 steals while leading ULL to the NCAA Tournament. He emerged as one of the best players in the nation, ranking 11th in the country in field goals (237), 11th in assists (208), ninth in steals (80) and sixth in points produced (732). His lockdown defense earned him the Lefty Driesell Award, which is given to college basketball’s top defensive player.
Payton filled the stat sheet in college and should be able to do the same in the NBA with his versatility. He had a 34-point, 11-assist, 11-rebound, five-steal game against Louisiana-Monroe in January; a 31-point, 13-rebound, three-assist outing against Western Kentucky in March; and in the NCAA Tournament against three-seeded Creighton he had 24 points, eight rebounds, three assists and three steals.
Don’t be surprised if Payton continues to gain momentum and climb draft boards in the coming weeks. He may not have the name recognition of other point guard prospects like Tyler Ennis and Shabazz Napier, but he’s killing it in workouts and becoming a favorite of many executives around the league.
Steve’s Notebook: Things are starting to take shape on the NBA draft front, with a number of players sort of finding their floor.
There are a couple of phrases to keep in mind. A player’s floor is the lowest pick they feel they may go based on what teams are telling them during feedback sessions, while the ceiling is the pick that could be the highest.
There are a couple of players who feel like they have commitments, which means they will start to jockey those lower level commitments into potentially a higher overall draft positions. Some may take the bird in the hand and shut things down on the work out front too.
Here are a few names to watch:
– Doug McDermott seems locked in at the Charlotte Hornets with the ninth pick. There is a chance they go in a different direction especially with Julius Randle poised to tumble a little amid reports of a badly healed foot that may require corrective surgery. But McDermott may have found his floor at number nine.
– There is considerable chatter that Kristaps Porzingis is locked in to the Oklahoma City Thunder at No. 21. That wouldn’t stop a team above them from grabbing him, but the 18-year-old Porzingis may have found his floor with a team that’s more than willing to be patient with his progress. Porzingis is said to have an NBA out in his current contract estimated at 1.2 million EUR (roughly $1.6 million US), with his drafting team able to contribute $600,000 of that. Going higher surely makes eating the buyout a little more appealing, however having the threat of not coming over does help influence where he may end up.
– Elfrid Payton seems to have done well for himself in the workout process so far, with a number of people claiming he may have a commitment from the Boston Celtics at No. 17. The problem is the Chicago Bulls, Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic all seem to be fairly high on him as well. Payton is also a strong possibility for the Sacramento Kings if they trade down from their current eighth pick. Payton may have found his floor, but on draft night it might not matter.
– Nike Stauskas has done really well for himself, almost assuring a green room invite and a top 15 selection. The question for Stauskas is can he knock someone out of the top 10? There is a sense he might.
– Don’t write Dante Exum out of the picture in Orlando just yet, but this week’s mock does put Marcus Smart in Orlando at the number four spot. The Magic are very high on Smart, mainly because he is a ready to play player they feel can really shore up their defense. Exum is scheduled to meet with the Magic next week and that may change the thinking. The Magic have had Smart in for two visits already, with some saying there were unanswered questions from the first visit, hence the second visit.
Exum has scheduled just three workouts at this point – Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Orlando. He is not expected to work out for any team outside the top four.
Smart seems to be the front runner at this point, only because Orlando has not seen Exum up close yet. It’s far from decided at number four, with sources saying Exum would not have come in to Orlando if they had not assured him he was a viable candidate at number four, but Smart gets the nod this week.
I will be holding down the NBA Saturday tomorrow, which will feature a pick by pick breakdown of each of my selections and the logic behind each one. So stay tuned for that.
2020 NBA Mock Draft – The Final 60-Pick Mock
What a long and winding road the 20201 NBA Draft has been. While this draft cycle has seen its ups and down, the moment of truth if finally upon us.
What a long and winding road the 20201 NBA Draft has been. While this draft cycle has seen its ups and down, the moment of truth if finally upon us.
Here is a final look at the 2020 Draft, and how it may play out in this final 60-pick Mock Draft of the 20202 NBA Draft process:
2020 NBA Mock Draft – First Round – 08/21/2020
The 2020 NBA Draft order is now locked in, however, there are tons of additional questions to be answered in the coming weeks. Here is a look at the first round, in this Basketball Insiders Mock Draft.
To say the 2020 NBA Draft has been chaotic is an understatement, however with last night’s NBA Draft Lottery out of the way, things are starting to at least trend in a positive direction.
That doesn’t mean there are not challenges ahead, namely when the actual NBA Draft will take place.
There is a growing sense that the NBA and the players are going to push back the start of the next cap year, which will likely impact when and how the NBA Draft plays out.
Typically, the Draft is a major transaction window for NBA teams, and with so much unknown surrounding how the salary cap will be set, and when trades and transactions typically consummated around the draft would become official, there is a lot of uncertainty, making the 2020 NBA draft wide open on many fronts.
The hope among teams is that some clarity on all of this will surface in the coming weeks, but for now most teams are operating in uncharted waters.
With all of that in mind, here is a look at the 2020 NBA Draft First round, which will be the first of many weekly Mock Drafts we’ll be dropping all the way up to the draft, whenever that finally gets set.
The Basketball Insiders Annual Consensus Mock Drafts will begin in September, as will full 60-pick mocks starting next week, so stay tuned.
2019 NBA Consensus Mock Draft – Final
For the last seven weeks, four of Basketball Insiders’ top writers have been breaking down the latest news and notes surrounding the 2019 NBA Draft, here is their final look at all 60 picks.
For the last seven weeks, four of Basketball Insiders’ top writers have been breaking down the latest news and notes surrounding the 2019 NBA Draft. Each week they provided an updated mock draft that reflected how each writer saw the draft landscape based on the latest news, workouts and information from the pre-draft process as well as a notebook, outlining each writers’ thoughts, observations and reporting on the draft.
Keep in mind we are trying to find commonalities, which is why it is called the Consensus. The writers involved do not see each other’s selections until these are posted. It is done deliberately to make sure each writer is not influencing the others.
Here is the Final Consensus Mock for the 2019 NBA Draft:
*** The 30th pick in the first round was traded to the Detroit Pistons, and the picks made reflect that trade, which will not happen until after the player is selected
***The 32nd pick in the second round was traded to the Indiana Pacers, and the picks made reflect that trade, which will not happen until after the player is selected
***The 41st pick in the second round was traded to the Golden State Warriors, and the picks made reflect that trade, which will not happen until after the player is selected
Jesse’s Notebook Some recent trades, including the trades for Anthony Davis and Mike Conley, as well as a few other transactions have shifted the draft board yet again. First-round picks are being moved around after a period in which prying away a first-rounder from another team was basically a non-starter. With the way the last few days have unfolded, and with the Western Conference seemingly wide open, I am predicting there will be several major trades on draft night. Add in the uncertainty surrounding several star free agents, and it’s simply impossible to predict with much precision what will happen on Thursday. However, this is the sort of environment that excites fans almost as much as the actual playoffs and NBA Finals, and I am not one to complain.
What is interesting about this is the fact that this draft seemingly drops off a cliff (arguably) once we get to the ninth pick. It would be more understandable to anticipate major moves on draft night with a loaded class, but that simply isn’t the case this year. My draft board has moved around wildly throughout this process, and I am bracing myself to be off the mark on draft night. All it takes is one trade for things to get thrown off in a major way, and I am anticipating at least a few major moves.
Throughout this process, I was looking for a handful of players to grab my attention and never let it go. Last season, that player was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and I was very interested in seeing where Michael Porter Jr. would ultimately land given his talent and injury issues. That player never really emerged this year, however. I think Cameron Reddish is one of the more intriguing players in the class considering his talent and upside, but shaky college record.
I look forward to revisiting this draft a few years down the road. At least one general manager is going to get a steal somewhere in the middle or backend of the draft. Considering how comparable the talent is throughout the board once we get past the lottery, it’s hard to say who the steal of the draft may be. Again, I am fully prepared for draft night to go off script in a major way. I recommend all NBA fans do the same.
Drew’s Notebook After months of planning, the 2019 NBA Draft is finally upon us. And per the usual, the closer we get, the harder it is to differentiate between fact and fiction given the number of smokescreens generated by agents and teams.
The Grizzlies appear dead set on Ja Morant. And rightfully so considering they traded away Mike Conley. The Knicks have continued to do their due diligence having worked out Vanderbilt’s Darius Garland just yesterday – and those close to Garland say the interest is real. On the flip side of the Knicks’ decision, RJ Barrett claims to have made considerable improvements since we last saw him at Duke – take that with a grain of salt. But the Knicks still appear to be the first team with a real decision to make.
We also hear that Nassir Little could go as high as nine to Washington and that Sekou Doumbouya might have a guarantee from Orlando at 16. So watch out for those curveballs, too.
As far as teams looking to consolidate their picks are concerned, the Hawks have resisted the idea of packaging the eighth pick along with 10 and/or 17, which may prohibit them from moving up as high as they would prefer. Atlanta owned six picks coming into the draft process – 8, 10, 17, 35, 41 and 44. They’ve already dealt 41 to Golden State and 44 to Miami. We’ll see if they continue moving/consolidating picks in hopes of mitigating the number of rookies they bring into training camp.
We’ve also heard that the Celtics would like to package their picks to move up, but it seems as though they’ve struggled to gain any traction – probably because teams can’t accurately predict who will be available with their selections (the Celtics’ first selection is 14). Boston may have to wait for some names to come off the board before others decide if trading back for multiple selections is the right move.
Draft night will inevitably deliver a number of surprises to the Brooklyn crowd. I expect heavy trade activity tomorrow night in advance of another wild free agency period, beginning June 30.
Spencer’s Notebook The day is here, folks! Tonight marks the official date of the 2019 NBA Draft, which will begin potentially one of the most hectic summers the association has ever seen.
In past notebooks from different versions of our Consensus Mock, I surmised that much of the shakeout would depend on what happened with Anthony Davis in New Orleans. Well, that situation resolved itself this past week when the Los Angeles Lakers made a franchise-altering trade with the Pelicans to land “The Brow” in Hollywood.
New Orleans executive vice president of basketball operations David Griffin now holds significant draft capital, as the team has both the first and fourth pick in this upcoming class. He also swindled three more first-rounders along with The Big Easy’s new upstart talents in Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, and Josh Hart. Due to the abundance of young guard/wing talent, and multiple teams vying to trade up using different packages, there’s a reason for the Pelicans to deal away No. 4.
And because of the uncertainty of what will happen at that slot, it’s difficult to predict how the draft will ultimately shake out. For example, if New Orleans decides to hang onto it, they could take Darius Garland, or RJ Barrett (if he falls) or whomever they deem fits their organization. However, if a team like the Atlanta Hawks jumps the Cleveland Cavaliers to draft Jarrett Culver or De’Andre Hunter, it could cause a domino effect that may completely alter everybody else’s plans.
Just in the past 48 hours, we learned about developments in New York. According to ESPN’s Jonathan Givony, the Knicks brass is seriously considering Garland at No. 3 and worked him out Wednesday. Whether this is actual interest or a way to drive up an asking price for their draft pick in order to make a deal of their own, we don’t actually know. The same thing could be said for Cleveland, who despite having Collin Sexton, is intrigued by the dynamic point guard.
At this point in the process, the real information could differ completely from what’s being leaked. Smoke is already filling up the room. It’s almost impossible to predict what will happen in this year’s draft, especially when most people around NBA circles believe that, at the tail end of the lottery, there could be draft picks moved every which way.
This is like throwing a dart blindfolded. As I tweeted last night, we might be burning our mock drafts at the rate we rip up brackets in the month of March.
The Utah Jazz and Milwaukee Bucks already moved their first-round picks in separate deals. That could only be the beginning. Who knows what the Hawks and Boston Celtics will do with three first-round selections in such a difficult class to differentiate player talent?
We won’t have to wait much longer to find out. Enjoy draft night, everyone!
Steve’s Notebook The 2019 NBA Draft is tonight in Brooklyn, New York, and while the suspense at the top of the draft board looks unchanged, there is a lot of potential for movement everywhere else.
As things stand today, Zion Williamson will be the top overall pick with almost no surprise there.
At number two, there continued to be talk last night that New Orleans was trying to pry the number two pick out of Memphis to grab Duke’s RJ Barrett, which would push Memphis back to the fourth spot and catching either Murray State’s Ja Morant or Vanderbilt’s Darius Garland, after the Knicks select at three. While these talks remain fluid, it does not appear at this point there will be a deal, but as is true with all trades, the right combination of assets changing hands can often turn a “No” into a “Yes.”
The New York Knicks have done their fair share of waffling on what to do at number three. While RJ Barrett remains the odds on favorite, the Knicks did take a long look at Garland on Wednesday in New York, as well as having surveyed executives from other teams for their views on Barrett, which is common due diligence, but also shows there may be some doubt on the long-term fit of Barrett.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have also been busy working on trade scenarios that could include in the fifth overall pick, the partially guaranteed cap clearing contract of JR Smith and their second pick at 26. The narrative around Cleveland is that they want to build around last year’s pick Collin Sexton, but the potential availability of Garland could test that commitment. Since the NBA Draft Combine, the Cavs have been linked to Duke’s Cam Reddish in trade down scenarios. There has been a belief that if Texas Tech guard Jarrett Culver is there at five, the Cavs may grab him and flip him to the Atlanta Hawks for either of the eighth or tenth picks and the Hawks pick at 17 which they obtained from the Brooklyn Nets.
As for some of the notable teams:
The prevailing thought is the Chicago Bulls are grabbing either Virginia’s De’Andre Hunter or UNC’s Coby White at 7.
The Washington Wizards seemed to have three guys in their sights: White, UNC’s Nassir Little and Limoges CSP’s Sekou Doumbouya.
The Hawks seem to be where Mega Bemax’s Goga Bitadze is going to land, likely at the ten spot.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are said to be extremely high on Gonzaga’s Rui Hachimura, although things could get interesting if Texas big man Jaxson Hayes is still on the board.
The Miami HEAT seem very open to trading their pick at 13, and there was talk in New York that Darius Bazley may be the HEAT’s guy, even as high as 13 if they keep the pick. The Pistons are also believed to be very high on Bazley.
The 2019 NBA draft is shaping up to be one of the turbulent drafts in recent years. A typical draft will have 15 to 18 transactions, most involving moving picks around. This year’s draft may double that when all the trade volume is done, so don’t get too attached to anyone your team may draft – they may not be there long.
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