Connect with us

Mock Drafts

2016 NBA Mock Draft: Consensus Ver 3.0

Each week, four of Basketball Insiders’ experts will do a 2016 NBA Mock Draft. Here are their third mocks.

Basketball Insiders

Published

on

Each week, four of Basketball Insiders’ top writers will break down the latest news and notes surrounding the 2016 NBA Draft. Included is an updated mock draft that reflects how each writer sees the draft landscape based on the latest news, workouts and information from the pre-draft process.

 

Alex’s Notebook: Former Utah center Jakob Poeltl has cracked the top 10 in three of our mock drafts this week, which isn’t very surprising considering he’s one of the best big men in this draft.

Last season, Poeltl averaged 17.2 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.6 blocks per game, while shooting 64.6 percent from the field (eighth-best in the nation). Poeltl’s 31.1 Player Efficiency Rating was the ninth-best in the nation and first among prospects who are projected to go in the 2016 first round. He was also ranked eighth in the country in Effective Field Goal Percentage (.646) and 15th in Win Shares (6.8).

He made huge strides as a sophomore, not only emerging as the Utes’ go-to player, but becoming one of the most productive players in college basketball – as his advanced analytics suggest. He led Utah in scoring (nearly doubling his freshman average), rebounding and shot-blocking and was a major reason Utah won 27 games (including a victory in the NCAA Tournament).

At the moment, Poeltl seems like a lock to be selected in the lottery. Steve Kyler has Poeltl projected the highest of all our writers, slotting him in as the No. 6 overall pick to the New Orleans Pelicans.

At the NBA Draft Combine, Poeltl measured in at 7’1 in shoes with a 7’2.75 wingspan. While he weighs just 239 lbs. and will need to put on weight in the NBA, his 5.8 percent body fat was very impressive. All of these measurements show that Poeltl has a build that’s very similar to that of Sacramento Kings center Willie Cauley-Stein (as our friends at DraftExpress noted).

Poeltl had plenty of dominant games throughout his sophomore campaign. Here were some of his most impressive performances:

  • Against Temple, he had 32 points, 11 rebounds, three blocks and two steals while hitting 10-12 shots from the field and 12-14 free throws.
  • Against BYU, he had 26 points, 13 rebounds and five blocks while hitting 11-16 shots from the field.
  • Against #7 Duke, he had 19 points, 14 rebounds and three blocks in just 28 minutes while hitting 8-11 shots from the field.
  • Against USC, he had 29 points, 13 rebounds, four assists and four steals while hitting 11-13 shots from the field.
  • Against Fresno State, he had 16 points, 18 rebounds and four assists to help Utah advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

Poeltl is a very intriguing prospect, so don’t be surprised to hear his name called sooner than later on draft night.

Joel’s Notebook: With four different teams owning three first-round picks (Boston, Phoenix, Philadelphia and Denver), I find myself struggling to figure out what, exactly, they’re going to do with all of those selections. As I’ve done these mocks, I’ve found myself using the third of those picks on a project or international player because it’s hard to imagine three rookies all making big influences on their new teams, but that led to me doing some really odd things this time around.

Denver, for whatever reason, got the oddest treatment this week. There’s no way they’re drafting Kris Dunn for themselves at No. 7 now that we know Emmanuel Mudiay is for real, but when Jamal Murray, Buddy Hield and Jaylen Brown all went right ahead of Denver’s pick at No. 7, I couldn’t justify passing on the most talented guy left on the board just because he didn’t fit a need. Dunn would absolutely not be happy playing behind Mudiay, and in fact he’d be wasted there, but I don’t see how else Denver could make the most of their pick at that point than to just pick Dunn. Ellenson, Davis, Labissiere and Poeltl represent a big drop-off for me.

Cheick Diallo at No. 19 is probably my biggest stretch this week, but it’s the third of Nuggets’ three picks and they can take a risk at that point. I’m of the belief that Diallo is actually really good and just couldn’t crack Bill Self’s vet-heavy rotation at Kansas after returning from his early-season suspension. Had he actually played this year, we’d probably be talking about him as a lottery pick, so him at #19 isn’t as crazy as it looks. He has a higher ceiling than Prince, Ulis and Johnson.

Ulis-Johnson-Beasley at 24, 25 and 26 would be amazing for the Sixers and Clippers, by the way. Any of those three could be the steal of the round if they drop that low.

Moke’s Notebook: Similar to last year, there still seems to be a bit of a split among the observers as to who will go first overall to the Sixers. Either way, at this point, we know who the top two selections will be in the draft – with most beginning to tab Dragan Bender as the consensus third pick. Where things get interesting, to me, is what transpires after that.

I have been a fan of Buddy Hield for quite some time and he is one of the players I have been mentioning as having the ability to crash the top five. The biggest wildcard in all of this, though, is what the Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves do at four and five, respectively.

The Timberwolves seem to have a promising young core already, and I personally think Skal Labissiere would fit nicely next to Karl-Anthony Towns. Labissiere hasn’t been tabbed as a “top five” talent for quite some time, though, and drafting him over a player whose perceived value is higher (such as Kris Dunn or Jamal Murray) may be too risky of a proposition for Tom Thibodeau to co-sign with the exercise of his first pick as the head cheese in Minneapolis. Still, I wouldn’t discount the possibility of the Timberwolves reaching for Labissiere and completely destroying everyone’s first-round projections. The Pelicans are in a fairly decent position at number six and will likely take a wing player who can contribute in the areas where Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon have mostly failed.

Timothe Luwawu and Furkan Korkmaz are both interesting, as well. I expect those guys to eventually round out the lottery, with Wade Baldwin being one of the better players selected in the top 20. Toward the end of the first round, I think both Diamond Stone and Malachi Richardson will have a shot to sneak in, with Thon Maker and Zhou Qi also possessing the same sort of round-busting potential as Bender and Labissiere.
Truth be told, in the weeks immediately following the NBA Draft Combine and lottery, there is a lot of conjecture or “smoke screening.” For the most part, we begin to get clarity as to what teams are thinking once the NBA Finals begin. Fortunately, that’s in the not-so-distant future.

Steve’s Notebook: Pro days are about to begin. This is becoming a bigger and bigger part of the NBA Draft process, just as it has become huge in the NFL. A pro day is agent-controlled access to draft eligible players and that starts with organized workout days where teams are invited to see those players work out in very controlled conditions. Those will get under way this week across the country.

To pull back the curtain on that a little, agents leverage team interest in upper-tier prospects to not only limit who gets access to those players, but also to showcase some of their other clients who may not be draft worthy or, in some cases, are current free agents.

The controlled nature of the workout is interesting because what agents are looking for is a stronger sense of who is genuinely interested, rather than sending their client on 15 or 20 individual workouts.

These controlled workouts are also a means for some agents to filter out undesirable situations. While agents play a big role in the process, there is still some selling even the agent has to do. Let’s say a team has a logjam at a position, but has expressed interest in the agent’s player. They can get face time with the player and explain to him how he’d fit in their situation. This becomes helpful for teams as they decide whether they would trade a player they already have to free up minutes for the prospect they want – if that player agrees to a workout and, more importantly, agrees to shut down his workouts with other teams in favor of a draft promise.

Which then bring us to the next part: the promise.

What most agents are seeking is a firm understanding of a player’s floor – the team that player will not get past on draft night. Knowing the lowest point a player could get drafted helps an agent shape a workout schedule so they can try to help that player’s stock.

Just because one team commits to drafting a player does not mean that player is guaranteed to go there, but it gives all involved a sense of things. More and more NBA teams are asking players and their agents to shut down workouts and access in exchange for the firm commitment.

Last year, the Thunder asked Cameron Payne to shut down workouts and, for the most part, he did. He only worked out for teams in the top 10 and did not meet with teams past the Thunder’s pick at 14.

Neither side is bound to a commitment; a team could change their mind if a particular player falls to them and there is always a chance a different team takes the player earlier than the promise. Players and their agents have to weigh if the fit is good enough to warrant shutting down workouts and meetings and if the situation is ideal enough to not try and move up.

The name of the game is to get drafted in the best situation possible, not only in terms of the rookie-scale deal, but in the long-term so the player can get a big pay day when it’s time for the first big contract.

While players want to be drafted as high as they can for a lot of reasons, finding the right fit has become more and more a part of the process even if that means they’re picked six or seven spots lower.

The gamesmanship of the draft is a big part of the process and, for many players, that will get underway seriously over the next few weeks.

Who are these guys anyway? Steve Kyler is the Publisher of Basketball Insiders and has covered the NBA for the last 18 seasons. Alex Kennedy is the Managing Editor of Basketball Insiders and has covered the NBA for the last nine years. Moke Hamilton is a Senior Writer for Basketball Insiders and has covered basketball for the last six years. Joel Brigham is a Senior NBA Writer and has covered the NBA for the last 11 years.

Advertisement




Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Mock Drafts

NBA Daily: The Top of The 2018 Draft Is Getting Crowded

The top of the projected 2018 NBA Draft is starting to get interesting, mainly because so many potential draft prospects are having incredibly dominant seasons.

Steve Kyler

Published

on

Things Are Getting Interesting

While the projected 2018 NBA Draft class doesn’t seem to have a future superstar sitting at the top of the board, there are potentially four players that are really looking the part of future NBA All-Stars and it’s making the top of the class very interesting.

Say what you want about stats, but there is little doubt that the numbers some of the top prospects are posting so far this season are pretty compelling.

Duke’s Marvin Bagley III is averaging 21.1 points per game to go with 10.9 rebounds. His 61.7 percent field goal average is impressive, especially when you consider he’s knocking in 34.6% of his three (9-26 on the season). Bagley has a 32.2 PER with a 64.6 True Shooting percentage and a 26.7 usage rate. In short, highly productive almost everywhere without having to own the basketball.

Arizona’s DeAndre Ayton is posting similarly ridiculous numbers, 19.5 points per game with 11.4 rebounds. His 61.7 percent from the field also comes with an impressive 30.4 percent three-point average (7-23 on the season). Ayton’s 32.3 PER is a nose higher than Bagley. He is also posting a whopping 65.6 True Shooting percentage with a 26.7 percentage usage rate. Again, highly productive in every way without being so ball-dominant to skew the numbers. Ayton hit the ground running at Arizona and really hasn’t had a bad game yet.

Oklahoma’s Trae Young has burst into the top-five discussion in a huge way. His 6’2 180-pound frame looks small on the court, but his game has been tremendous. Young is posting 28.7 points per game with a monster 10.4 assists per contest. He is grabbing 3.5 rebounds while shooting 48.5 percent from the field, 57.1 percent from two-point range and a scorching 41.1 percent from three (44 of 107 on the season). Young’s 38 PER is tops in all of college basketball. He has a 65.2 True Shooting percentage and a 36.1 usage rate. Unlike Bagley and Ayton, Young does control the ball, but that’s typical for an impact scoring point guard. He offsets the ball dominance with incredible assist numbers. He is also pretty spectacular to watch.

International phenom Luka Dončić is having a solid season in his own right, although his averages are lower because he doesn’t play the same volume of minutes as the NCAA collegiate prospects. In 26 games in both the Euroleague and the ACB, Dončić is posting 16.8 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists per contest. He is shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from international three (48 of 135 on the season). Dončić is posting a 28.2 PER in Euroleague play and a 23.7 PER in ACB play. Dončić’s True Shooting numbers in Euroleague play are impressive at 66.2 percent. In ACB play his number drop a bit to 58.1 percent. His usage numbers illustrate the same slip. In Euroleague play, he posts a 30 percent usage rate while posting a 26.6 percent usage rate in ACB. Dončić typically plays more minutes and a larger role in Euroleague play. Hence the stat shift. If you haven’t seen him play, he’s so instinctual and gifted it easy to see why many see him as the top pick.

There are some compelling storylines to watch towards the top of the NBA draft board, which is likely why so many NBA executives seem split on who they would peg as the top talent in the projected 2018 Draft class.

So, with that out the way, lets jump into the latest first-round 2018 NBA Mock Draft:

Here are some of the pick swaps and how they landed where they are currently projected:

The Philadelphia 76ers are owed the LA Lakers’ 2018 Draft pick, unprotected, as a result of the 2012 Steve Nash trade with the Suns. The Suns traded that pick to the 76ers as part of the Michael Carter-Williams three-team trade with the Milwaukee in 2015. The 76ers traded that pick to the Boston Celtics as part of the draft pick trade that became Markelle Fultz before the draft; it has 2 through 5 protections and based on the standings today would convey to Boston.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are owed the Brooklyn Nets’ first-round pick as a result of the Kyrie Irving trade this past summer. The Brooklyn Nets traded several unprotected picks to Boston as part of the Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce trades in 2015.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Miami HEAT’s first-round pick as part of the Goran Dragic trade in 2015, it is top-seven protected and would convey to Phoenix based on the current standings.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Milwaukee Bucks’ first-round pick as part of the Eric Bledsoe trade. The pick only conveys if the Bucks pick lands between the 11th and 16th pick, which based on the standings today would not convey.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are owed the Oklahoma City Thunder’s first-round pick as part of the Jazz/Wolves Ricky Rubio trade this past summer. The Jazz acquired the pick as part of the Thunder’s deal to obtain Enes Kanter in 2015. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Minnesota Timberwolves’ first round pick as part of the Adreian Payne trade in 2015. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Brooklyn Nets are owed the Toronto Raptors’ first round pick as part of the DeMarre Carroll salary dump trade this past summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Houston Rockets’ first round pick as part of a three-team deal with the LA Clippers and Denver Nuggets involving Danilo Gallinari and taking back Jamal Crawford and Diamond Stone. The pick is top-three protected and based on the current standings would convey.

Check out the Basketball Insiders’ Top 100 NBA Draft Prospects http://www.basketballinsiders.com/top-100-nba-draft-prospects/

More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @MikeAScotto, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @joelbrigham, @TommyBeer, @MokeHamilton , @jblancartenba, @Ben_Dowsett, @SpinDavies, @BuddyGrizzard, @JamesB_NBA, @DennisChambers_, and @Ben__Nadeau .

Continue Reading

Mock Drafts

NBA Daily: Another 2018 NBA Mock Draft – 12/13/17

Basketball Insiders’ publisher Steve Kyler drops his latest 2018 first-round NBA Mock Draft.

Steve Kyler

Published

on

A little less than a month ago we dropped the first 2018 NBA Mock Draft, which was met with a lot of disdain. Which is often a good thing because it sparks the discussion in NBA circles.

Since that Mock dropped, we’ve seen a bit more play out of some of the top prospects and many of the assumptions made almost a month ago are starting to settle into place a little more clearly.

The prevailing thought from NBA scouts and executives is that the possible 2018 NBA Draft class has a lot more questions than answers. The common view is that outside of the top 3 or 4 players there could be a very wide range on who the next 10-12 players will be; so expect for the second tier to evolve a lot over the course of the college basketball season.

A couple of things have started to surface among NBA scouts and executives, there seem to be three camps emerging around the top overall player – Duke’s Marvin Bagley III and international phenom Luka Dončić, seem to be the leading names mentioned most, with Arizona’s DeAndre Ayton making a strong push into the discussion. We can safely call this a three-horse race at this point.

The prevailing belief is that none of the three is far and away better than the other as a professional prospect, making it more likely than not that the top player selected will have a lot more to do with which team ultimately lands the pick, more so than the player themselves.

This class also seems to be brimming with promising athletic point guards, which unlike last year’s draft, could provide a lot of options for teams still trying to find that impact point guard.

There also looks to be 27 players in the projected top 100 that are 6’10 or bigger, eight of which project in the top 30. To put that into perspective, there were 11 players 6’10 or bigger drafted in the first round of the 2017 NBA Draft, and 17 total in the 60 2017 NBA Draft selections.

As we get into the 2018 calendar year, we’ll start to do deeper dives into the tiers of players and their possible NBA strengths and weakness.

So, with all of that in mind, here is the second 2018 first-round NBA Mock Draft.

Here are some of the pick swaps and how they landed where they are currently projected:

The Philadelphia 76ers are owed the LA Lakers 2018 Draft pick, unprotected, as a result of the 2012 Steve Nash trade with the Suns. The Suns traded that pick to the 76ers as part of the Michael Carter-Williams three-team trade with the Milwaukee in 2015.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are owed the Brooklyn Nets first-round pick as a result of the Kyrie Irving trade this past summer.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are owed the Oklahoma City Thunder’s first-round pick as part of the Ricky Rubio trade this summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would not convey.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Miami HEAT’s first-round pick as part of the Goran Dragic trade in 2015, it is top-seven protected and would convey to Phoenix based on the current standings.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Minnesota Timberwolves first round pick as part of the Adreian Payne trade in 2015. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Milwaukee Bucks first-round pick as part of the Eric Bledsoe trade. The pick only conveys if the Bucks pick lands between the 11th and 16th pick, which based on the standings today would not convey.

The Brooklyn Nets are owed the Toronto Raptors first round pick as part of the DeMarre Carroll salary dump trade this past summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Houston Rockets first round pick as part of a three-team deal with the LA Clippers and Denver Nuggets involving Danilo Gallinari and taking back Jamal Crawford and Diamond Stone. The pick is top-three protected and based on the current standings would convey.

Check out the Basketball Insiders’ Top 100 NBA Draft Prospects http://www.basketballinsiders.com/top-100-nba-draft-prospects/

Continue Reading

Mock Drafts

NBA AM: The First 2018 NBA Mock Draft

With College Basketball getting underway and things starting to get interesting in the standings of the NBA, what better time to drop a 2018 Mock Draft than on Thanksgiving.

Steve Kyler

Published

on

The Thanksgiving 2018 NBA Mock Draft

With College Basketball getting underway and things starting to get interesting in the standings of the NBA, what better time to drop a 2018 Mock Draft than on Thanksgiving.

So with that in mind here is my first Mock Draft of the 2018 Season, look for more of these are we march on (and hopefully you like the new Mock Draft table design.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are owed the Brooklyn Nets first-round pick as a result of the Kyrie Irving trade this summer.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Miami HEAT’s first-round pick as part of the Goran Dragic trade in 2015, it is top-seven protected and would convey to Phoenix based on the current standings.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Milwaukee Bucks first-round pick as part of the Eric Bledsoe trade. The pick only conveys if the Bucks pick lands between the 11th and 16th pick, which based on the standings today would convey.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are owed the Oklahoma City Thunder’s first-round pick as part of the Ricky Rubio trade this summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Minnesota Timberwolves first round pick as part of the Adreian Payne trade in 2015. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Brooklyn Nets are owed the Toronto Raptors first round pick as part of the DeMarre Carroll salary dump trade this past summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Houston Rockets first round pick as part of a three-team deal with the LA Clippers and Denver Nuggets involving Danilo Gallinari and taking back Jamal Crawford and Diamond Stone. The pick is top-three protected and based on the current standings would convey.

Check out our Top 100 NBA Draft Prospects http://www.basketballinsiders.com/top-100-nba-draft-prospects/

More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @MikeAScotto, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @joelbrigham, @TommyBeer, @MokeHamilton , @jblancartenba, @Ben_Dowsett, @SpinDavies, @BuddyGrizzard, @JamesB_NBA, @DennisChambers_, and @Ben__Nadeau .

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending Now