They say it takes three years to truly grade a draft, but the 2014 class had as much as hype as any since the star studded 2003 class that included LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh among other high-level players. That created expectations that, 20+ games into the season, they are falling drastically short of meeting. They’re far closer to going down as one of the most disappointing classes, rather than one of the best ever, if they continue on their current pace. In their defense, injuries have taken a toll on this class, and a lot of players have yet to receive a serious opportunity to prove themselves. However, whereas a lot of projections had multiple franchise players coming out of this draft, there’s reason to wonder if that will ever become reality. Until that changes, the overall outlook on this class will never be positive.
Here’s a deeper look at what we’ve seen from the class so far. :
If Rookie of the Year were handed out today…
Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker would likely run away with it. He’s been an integral part of the Bucks’ resurgence. After finishing with the worst record in the league last year, they’re now 12-12 and in sixth place in the Eastern Conference. While Parker’s averages of 12.5 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.7 assists aren’t mind blowing, it’s important to point out that he’s only playing 30 minutes a night and is really being eased into a feature role by new Bucks head coach Jason Kidd.
Still, Parker has shown the potential to be a true No. 1 option in flashes, like when he went for 22 points on 11-15 shooting in a close loss at the Cleveland Cavaliers or when he dropped 23 points on 8-13 shooting in a road win against the Brooklyn Nets. He’s having a really strong December so far, averaging 14.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists while shooting 60 percent from the field. He’s gotten away from settling for threes, one of the chief complaints about his game during his lone season at Duke.
Parker made it clear prior to the draft that he wanted to be a Buck and play near his hometown of Chicago. It doesn’t look like the fit could be any better for both parties as Parker is the only lottery pick who can claim he’s at least close to meeting expectations.
The rookies who have let us down
Andrew Wiggins, the top overall selection, had a tumultuous offseason. From the second LeBron James re-signed with the Cavaliers, it became clear that he was no longer in their plans. Trade rumors for Kevin Love surfaced immediately and by the end of August, Wiggins had already been traded to the rebuilding Minnesota Timberwolves. His potential was great enough to go No. 1, but the Cavaliers didn’t think he could help them enough immediately to justify passing on one of the league’s most productive All-Stars. There were actually some cries that the Cavaliers could end up regretting trading Wiggins, but even during their recent struggles, there’s no second guessing going on in Cleveland.
That’s because Wiggins has proven to be as raw and unready as his biggest supporters feared. He’s caught heat from his head coach Flip Saunders for not playing hard enough, which has always been his biggest flaw. Wiggins doesn’t appear to have the killer instinct of a Kobe Bryant or Kevin Durant, but the hope is that he blows up after a slow start in similar fashion to Paul George and Vince Carter.
The jump from the mid-major ranks in the NCAA to the NBA has been a difficult one for Orlando Magic point guard Elfrid Payton to handle so far. He’s received ample opportunity under Jacque Vaughn, a former NBA point guard himself who was thought to be a perfect fit to groom Payton, but has mainly showed how far away he is from being ready to be the starting point guard the Magic hoped for when they drafted him. Payton is shooting a woeful 37 percent from the field, 25 percent from deep and 46 percent from the charity stripe. If he were on a team focused on winning now, it’s hard to imagine he’d be seeing the floor half as much as he is with the rebuilding Magic. They’re showing faith and confidence in him right now, but at some point Payton is going to have to deliver or he’ll find himself watching like most of his other classmates.
While it may not be fair to call any second-round pick a disappointment, this draft analyst was expecting more from New Orleans Pelicans guard Russ Smith. A prolific player in college who stayed for four years and helped Louisville win a championship as a junior, Smith has been unable to carve a niche for himself on a team with one of the thinnest backcourts in the league. He’s been spending time in the D-League and recently had his chances of cracking the rotation made even worse by the signing of Gal Mekel. After a strong summer league in which he looked like a potential difference maker with his speed and scoring ability, there’s reason to wonder now if we’ll just have to watch the D-League in order to see him in action because it doesn’t look like his chance is coming since it hasn’t already despite the Pelicans’ dire circumstances.
The rookies who have surprised us
On most Basketball Insiders’ 2014 mock drafts, Clemson forward K.J. McDaniels was a lottery pick. We were that high on his talent and ability to help right away. Yet, because of concerns about his perimeter skills and potential to be a positionless tweener, he fell to the second round. That cost McDaniels the security that comes with being a first-round pick, but he fortunately landed with the Philadelphia 76ers. Not only were they willing to give him the option of becoming a restricted free agent this offseason, they’ve also given him ample playing time that he has thrived in. McDaniels is in the Rookie of the Year mix thanks to his averages of 9.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.5 blocks a game. Questions about whether he belongs in the league have been answered. He has a handsome pay day coming his way that should put him up there with the top 10 picks in terms of annual salary.
The other two rookies who have surprised the most are teammates on the Houston Rockets: Tarik Black and Kostas Papanikolaou. The fact that Black is still on the Rockets’ roster alone is a surprise, but he appears to be the new Greg Smith in town. Like Smith, he’s come in with a great attitude, willingness to learn and been as low maintenance as they come. He simply goes out there and does what Kevin McHale asks of him. He was really solid while Dwight Howard was out due to a knee injury and actually started a handful of games. For a player who was a perennial underachiever in college after disappointing stints in Memphis and Kansas, Black looks more like a late bloomer who is better suited for the pros than NCAA. He should be in the league for a long time, which is not something a lot of undrafted free agents have ever had the luxury of saying.
Papanikolaou came in as a relative unknown after being selected 48th overall by New York in 2012. He was very good internationally after that point, but far from a star who was a certifiable NBA rotation player. In another example of how strong of a scouting department they have, the Rockets tapped him as a good fit for their program and he has been extremely solid. He does a little bit of everything, and at 24 years old he is still far from peaking. The Rockets have a steal in him, just as the Nets appear to have in 2011 second round pick Bojan Bogdanovic, who has come in and established himself as one of the top rookies by scoring just over nine points a night.
Important members of the class we haven’t seen yet
When evaluating this draft class, it wouldn’t be fair if we didn’t point out that some of the better players in it have yet to take the floor, or only taken it for minutes in the case of Los Angeles Lakers rookie Julius Randle. After a really intriguing preseason where he got progressively better as it went on, Randle went down with a broken leg in the season opener that will keep him out the rest of the year. Randle would be seeing major minutes on this struggling Lakers team and potentially be in the Rookie of the Year race if he were healthy. Top picks Aaron Gordon and Marcus Smart have also missed some time with injuries.
Same goes for Joel Embiid, although the Philadelphia 76ers knew when they drafted him third overall that the chances of him playing before the start of the New Year were slim. Now we’re not even sure if Embiid is going to make his rookie debut this year. He may end up going the Nerlens Noel route and making his debut in what should be year two. It’s worked out well so far for Noel, who is 100 percent healthy and seeing extensive action every night as he works to develop into the face of the franchise the 76ers hope he can be.
For a short period, it looked like we may not be seeing much of Dario Saric, who the 76ers acquired in a draft night trade with the Orlando Magic, either this season. Saric signed a two-year contract in Turkey prior to the draft, so it was clear that he’d be overseas for the next 24 months. However, after sparingly playing in his first game of the season, there were rumbles that he could fight to get out of his contract and join the 76ers immediately. That didn’t happen and he’s settled in now, averaging 11.9 points and 6.4 rebounds a game. The 76ers stay in frequent contact with him and have to be pleased with how well he’s been playing as of late.
Phoenix Suns first-round draft pick Bogdan Bogdanovic is having a strong campaign for Fenerbahce, averaging 9.8 points, 2.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. At 22 years old, the Suns hope to bring him over soon and utilize his versatile offensive skill set in their free-flowing, up-tempo attack.
At 7’3 with one of the longest wingspans ever recorded at 7’9, Cape Verde big man Walter Tavares is the sleeper we can’t rule out of making a major impact in the NBA one day. He’s averaging just over two blocks in 22 minutes a game in the ACB. He’s extremely raw, but at 22 years of age and a virtual newbie to high-level basketball, it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he starts to make some significant strides really soon and comes over as an immediate-impact player, whenever he does decide to make the jump.
Finally, we’re probably just days away from Turkish big man Furkan Aldemir making his rookie debut. The 53rd pick of the 2012 draft by the Los Angeles Clippers played just six games for Galatasaray before being let out his contract to sign a big money deal with the 76ers. With the recent trade of Brandon Davies, look for Aldemir to get a chance immediately to earn major minutes in the rotation. 76ers GM Sam Hinkie has loved him since his days back in Houston and was willing to take on the problematic Royce White in order to acquire his rights.
With several months still left in the NBA season, a lot can change. There are a lot of members from this draft class that just haven’t gotten their chance yet, but it’s far too early and they’re too talented to seriously make decisive judgments on. This could still go down as one of the better classes in recent memory, they just have a lot of ground to make up in order to get to that point after the first 20 or so games.
The Best of the Undrafted Players
David Yapkowitz breaks down the best players who weren’t drafted in Thursday night’s NBA Draft.
Ben Wallace, Raja Bell, Avery Johnson, David Wesley, John Starks; those are just a few former NBA players who didn’t hear their name called on draft night, yet went on to have pretty impressive careers.
Each year there are a few undrafted players who end up making a team’s roster and turn out to be solid contributors. This past season, players like Ron Baker of the New York Knicks, Yogi Ferrell of the Dallas Mavericks, and Derrick Jones Jr. of the Phoenix Suns went undrafted in 2016 yet ended up as regular rotation guys for their teams. In Ferrell’s case, he became a starter.
With the 2017 NBA Draft come and gone, here’s a look at some of the top undrafted players who might be able to strengthen a team’s roster.
Johnathan Motley was the best player on a Baylor team that was a No.3 seed and made it to the Sweet Sixteen in the NCAA Tournament. He averaged 17.3 points per game on 52.2 percent shooting and pulled down 9.9 rebounds per game.
At 6-foot-9 and 230 pounds, Motley is definitely in the mold of a versatile wing player who can play multiple positions and thrive and in today’s NBA. What he needs to do, however, is improve his outside shot. He shot only 28.1 percent from three-point range. One crucial aspect for hybrid forwards is to be able to step out and hit long range jumpers.
His stock often fluctuated in various mock drafts; some had him going in the first round, others in the second. Per The Vertical’s Shams Charania, Motley signed a two-way contract with the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday.
P.J. Dozier was one-half of South Carolina’s star duo that helped propel them to a Cinderella run to the Final Four in the NCAA Tournament. The other half, Sindarius Thornwell, had his name called, but at the end of the night, Dozier was still waiting.
Only a sophomore, Dozier was the second leading scorer for the Gamecocks with 13.9 points per game. He was always projected to go in the second round on most mocks and perhaps he came out a bit too early. The talent is there though.
He can have success as a team’s combo guard off the bench. He will need to work on his shooting though. He shot only 40.7 percent from the field, 29.8 percent from three. He’ll be in summer league with the Los Angeles Lakers, and from there will hope to entice a team to bring him to training camp.
Melo Trimble might have been one of those players that needed to strike while the iron’s hot. Two years ago, he was talked about as a probable first-round pick had he declared for the draft after his freshman year at Maryland. Instead, he stayed until his junior year and his stock fell.
He actually turned in an impressive junior campaign with 16.8 points per game, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.7 assists. He shot a respectable 44.4 percent from the field and 41.2 percent from three-point range.
Trimble will play summer league with the Philadelphia 76ers, and like most undrafted free agents, will look to turn his performance into a training camp invitation. He probably projects to be a backup point guard should he find a place in the league. He had first round and possible lottery talent before, however, so maybe all he needs is an opportunity.
In today’s game, where teams put a premium on versatile, do it all type players who can play multiple positions, Devin Robinson certainly fits that description. Robinson is a long, athletic forward who can step out and hit outside jumpers while locking up his opponent’s best wing scorer.
Florida had a surprisingly solid run in the NCAA Tournament and Robinson was a big part of that. His junior year, his best year yet, saw him average 11.1 points per game on 47.5 percent from the field and 6.1 rebounds. He showed a much improved outside shot, connecting on 39.1 percent of his looks from downtown. In the tournament, he upped his averages to 28.3 points on similar shooting percentages.
Robinson will be in summer league with the Washington Wizards, a team that often times lacked production off their bench last season. Depending on how he performs in summer league, don’t be surprised to see him on the Wizards roster come opening night.
Playing in the shadow of Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker in years past, Nigel Hayes was given an opportunity as a senior at Wisconsin to show what he could do as the focal point of an offense. His numbers didn’t jump off the page, but he did play well enough to be given a shot at making a team’s roster.
His 14 points per game were good enough to tie teammate Ethan Happ for the second leading scorer on the team. As a power forward, he was actually the second leading assist man with 2.7. One area he’ll need to improve on to make an impact in the NBA is his outside jumper. He shot 39.6 percent from three his sophomore season. This year it was down to 31.4 despite taking a similar number of attempts (2.5 and 1.9 respectively).
Hayes looks to be one of those players in between positions. He lacks the quickness and range to thrive at small forward but is a bit undersized at the NBA level for power forward. He is an incredible energy player, though, and players like that have been able to carve out nice careers. He’ll be in summer league with the Knicks, and given their current state of affairs, they need all the help they can get.
In the mock drafts that projected him to be drafted, L.J. Peak was most likely going to be a second round pick. That’s not to say he doesn’t have first round talent. He’s a big guard that can play both guard positions.
Despite Georgetown’s futile record this season, Peak was a standout. He was the team’s second-leading scorer at 16.2 points per game on 48 percent shooting from the field. He was also their top playmaker, dishing out 3.5 assists. In the NBA, he most likely can find a role for some team as a combo guard off the bench. He only shot 32.7 percent from the beyond the arc, however, so if he wants to make an impact in the league that’s one area he’ll need some work.
He’s set to go to summer league with the Houston Rockets. Depending on what roster moves the Rockets make, it will be tough for Peak to make the final team. They already have two guards capable of playing both guard spots off the bench in Lou Williams and Isaiah Taylor. Taylor’s contract isn’t guaranteed, but he probably has the inside track due to his familiarity with the team. In any case, a strong summer showing should lead Peak to a training camp invite with another team, if not the Rockets.
NBA PM: Losers Of The 2017 NBA Draft
Who were the two parties who came out of draft night worse off than they went in? Spencer Davies explores.
As the book closes on the 2017 NBA Draft, the league takes a bit of a break before going full throttle into the free agency portion of the off-season.
Before we get there, though, Basketball Insiders will take a look at the winners and losers of Thursday’s draft to get you caught up. Our own Benny Nadeau already took care of the former, so this piece will focus on the two parties who came out of the night worse off than they did going into it.
Early Entrants Going Undrafted
The amount of talent in this year’s draft class was undeniable, so those that decided to come out of college too soon instead of returning to school for another year suffered tremendously.
Let’s take a look at some notable undrafted players that entered as underclassmen:
Simmons was an interesting story this past season with the Arizona Wildcats. It was a difficult one-and-done season for Simmons, as he had trouble converting on the perimeter (33 percent) and contributing anything other than scoring.
In the first couple of months as a freshman, he was basically an every game starter and played at least 28 minutes per game for the team. As the year wound down, though, the 6-5, 175-pound shooting guard barely saw the court, and the time he was given came during blowouts.
His decision to enter the draft was questionable and a gamble, and most teams saw it the same way. Luckily for Simmons, he was reportedly able to come to an agreement with the Memphis Grizzlies on a free agent contract.
A player that surprisingly didn’t get selected was P.J. Dozier from South Carolina. In his sophomore season, the 20-year-old swingman took on a much heavier workload and dramatically improved his game on both ends of the floor.
Dozier was one of the best defenders in the SEC and in the entire NCAA, as well as an aggressor on offense. He was not bashful and took his new role in stride. Over the course of one year, he attempted six more field goals per game and upped his three-point success by 8.5 percentage points.
He also snatched almost two more rebounds per game and averaged nearly two steals for the Gamecocks. Dozier going undrafted was a head scratcher, but the Los Angeles Lakers made sure he landed on his feet with a deal.
Briscoe is more of a hybrid type with a bulky build for a backcourt player. In two seasons under John Calipari at Kentucky, he was pretty consistent with his game as somebody who will give you a little bit of everything.
He’s not particularly a good shooter, but he can get some rebounds and dish it out to make the right plays. You’ll see that with when he’s playing for the Philadelphia 76ers in Summer League.
Blakeney—a sophomore guard from LSU—proved that he can shoot the basketball and be a pure scorer (17.2 points per game) when given the opportunity, but what about the defensive end of the floor? He’ll need to work on that, as well as his all-around game that won’t make him a one-dimensional threat.
He hasn’t received an offer from a team yet, but he’ll likely get a chance to showcase his talents in either Orlando or Las Vegas.
The trend here seems obvious—if you’re a shooting guard and haven’t gotten at least three years of college experience, it may not be wise to declare. Executives understand that they need players with the “do-it-all” quality and not just pure scorers that can’t bring more than one or two skills to the table.
Over the past week, the writing seemed to be on the wall for Jimmy Butler and his future with the Bulls. There were rumors all over linking him mainly to the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the dark horse candidate to land the All-Star was the one to pull the trigger.
After the first selection in the draft was made, the Minnesota Timberwolves came to an agreement with Chicago that reunited Butler with his former coach of four years, Tom Thibodeau. The deal came a few weeks after an exit interview regarding the team’s direction that reportedly went well.
The 27-year-old’s trainer didn’t hide his displeasure about the move, but it’s understandable from the perspective of VP of Basketball Operations John Paxson and general manager Gar Forman, who strived to “set a direction” for the franchise.
However, what they received in return for Butler was not nearly enough for a man that is just now entering his prime as one of the best two-way players in the game today. In exchange for Butler, the Wolves sent Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine to Chicago. Furthermore, the Bulls were able to move up nine spots in the draft, but it cost them their 16th pick to do so.
LaVine is as exciting as a player as any young talent in the NBA, but he’ll enter the season coming off a brutal ACL tear that ended his year prematurely. It will probably be a little while before the 22-year-old sees the floor, and, as the centerpiece of this trade, it’s definitely risky not knowing how he’ll respond to the injury.
While Dunn could have plenty of promise as the starting point guard of the future, his rookie season in Minnesota left a lot to be desired. The only defense of his inclusion as one of the key pieces in this transaction is being a top five pick in last year’s draft with untapped potential.
With the seventh overall selection, Chicago drafted Lauri Markkanen out of Arizona. In his lone season under Sean Miller, the seven-footer was a key cog in the Wildcats’ run in the PAC-12 and NCAA tournaments.
The talent is clearly there as a sharpshooting stretch four or five, but with Bobby Portis and Nikola Mirotic already in the mix at power forward, the fit may be a problem. He could see some time at center, but remember, Robin Lopez, Cristiano Felicio, and Joffrey Lauvergne are holding down the fort there, too.
Markkanen’s situation will all depend on if qualifying offers are made to Mirotic, Felicio, and Lauvergne.
To add the cherry on top of the Bulls’ rough night, they excited some fans of the organization when they took Jordan Bell out of Oregon early in the second round. That hope quickly diminished when the Golden State Warriors paid $3.5 million for the pick, and Chicago agreed to send him to the Bay.
Bell was one of the sexier names in the draft for a good reason, but the money was more important to the Bulls, who will have some more decisions to make this summer with their veterans on the roster likely not wanting to be a part of the rebuild.
Without their superstar of the last three years, and still with an inexperienced head coach like Fred Hoiberg to develop the young talent brought into the organization, it’s going to be a little while before basketball is king again in the Windy City.
Hawks Didn’t Expect John Collins To Fall To 19
Newly-minted Atlanta Hawks GM Travis Schlenk had a relatively easy decision drafting John Collins at 19.
During Travis Schlenk’s first NBA Draft as Atlanta GM, fortune smiled as center John Collins of Wake Forest, a player rated highly on Atlanta’s draft board, fell to the 19th pick.
“Through the whole week, we had guys ranked, and he was the highest guy there,” said Schlenk to assembled media at the Omni Hotel, adjacent to Philips Arena. “We thought he’d go a little higher. We had a couple options on the board to move back, but once we saw that John was going to be there, we didn’t entertain any of those.”
Schlenk added that Atlanta also tried to move up but was unable to execute a trade.
“We did have some conversations about trying to move up,” said Schlenk. “We had one player that we targeted that we really wanted to move up for but were unable to do so.”
The process of building the team’s draft depth chart was collaborative, Schlenk added, which meant Collins’ selection was by consensus rather than by decree. Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer was among those whose input factored into the selection.
“I have a lot of faith in the group that was here before I got here,” said Schlenk. “They’ve been a huge asset to me coming in here in the middle of this process. As I’ve stated all along, I view Coach Bud and I’s relationship as a partnership. It doesn’t do us any good to take a guy that he doesn’t like, so he’s got a voice in it for sure.”
Schlenk was asked about areas where Collins needs to improve and didn’t shy away from questions about his defense.
“That was kind of the knock on him at Wake Forest,” said Schlenk. “But a lot of times, especially in college — when you’re the main focal point — you’ll see the best offensive player doesn’t want to get in foul trouble so he can stay on the floor. We interviewed him in Chicago. That’s what he said: “Coach Manning said, ‘Don’t get in foul trouble, I can’t afford to have you off the court.'”
The Hawks GM also talked about Collins’ shortcomings as a shooter.
“One of the first things we’re going to work on with him is a jump shot,” said Schlenk. “In college, all his scoring came in the post. And he’s got a good post game. We just need to extend his range out, especially the way we play and the way the league’s going.”
But overall, Schlenk was extremely positive about the opportunity to add a player with the upside of Collins, a player who is far from a finished product.
“Last year you saw his athleticism, and then the big jump that he’s made from his freshman year to his sophomore year,” Schlenk said. “Obviously, being the most improved player in the ACC, you see the growth he’s made. And he’s still a 19-year-old kid, so there’s still a lot of room to grow.”
In the second round, Atlanta selected shooting guard Tyler Dorsey, who shot 56 percent from three and averaged 23 points during Oregon’s run to the Final Four. The Hawks also selected 6-10 French center Alpha Kaba of Mega Leks, a likely draft-and-stash candidate. With Collins’ youth and lack of polish, it may take some time to judge Schlenk’s first draft. But fortunately for him, the decision was a relatively easy one since the team didn’t expect Collins to fall all the way to 19 where Atlanta could grab him.