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Are The Sacramento Kings Postseason Bound?

One year older, wiser and better – surrounded by an enviable blend of young talent and veteran depth – could De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III help the Kings end the league’s longest postseason drought? Jack Winter examines.

Jack Winter

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Midway through leading the Sacramento Kings to their best record in over 10 years, then-head coach Dave Joerger compared De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III to this generation’s gold-standard tandem of homegrown superstars.

“…We have the next Durant-Westbrook,” he said in December. “That’s how good they’re gonna be.”

Joerger is gone a few months later, the latest victim of Sacramento’s time-honored struggle for cohesion between the coaching staff and front office. But the Kings are on an upward trajectory regardless, sprinting their way toward respectability in a Western Conference as wide open as it is loaded – and if Fox and Bagley live up to offseason hype, that lends some measure of credence to Joerger’s claim, maybe more.

The notion that Sacramento could snag one of the eight playoff spots in the West means a team with more proven postseason ambitions won’t. It’s impossible to make a confident choice about which teams will ultimately be watching the action on vacation among those with plans to be playing next spring and early summer. There are a handful of teams with realistic title aspirations out west, and several more could be subject to seismic – and currently unforeseen – organizational shifts should they fail to make the playoffs.

Neither distinction applies to the Kings.

As training camp looms, they sit beside the New Orleans Pelicans, Dallas Mavericks, Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder in the conference pecking order as virtual unknowns compared to more established foes at the top of the West. But none of Sacramento’s playoff-hopeful peers can match its blend of last season’s success, core continuity and, most importantly, room to grow in 2019-20.

Fox, of course, is the driving force behind that optimism. He finished third in Most Improved Player of the Year voting last season, an especially ringing endorsement due to voters’ increasing hesitance to reward sophomores for making a leap most foolishly expect is inevitable. Still, it’s undeniable that the broad scope of Fox’s progress has gone mostly overlooked outside of California’s capital.

The Kings ranked first in transition frequency last season, per Cleaning the Glass, by no accident. Fox, arguably the fastest player in the game with the ball in his hands, isn’t James Harden or Giannis Antetokounmpo, but he owns his team’s offensive identity every bit as much as the league’s last two MVPs.

Such a young player shouldering that type of burden would normally be indicative of a team growing his game through trial by fire. Not for Sacramento, whose newfound emphasis on pace led to Fox upping his usage, true shooting percentage, assist ratio and lowering his share of assisted baskets all while cutting his turnover rate – a rare, telling feat.

Even more encouraging was the ease and patience with which he began manipulating multiple levels of the defense as a ball-screen operator, and how he drained pull-up threes at a solid 35.2 percent clip, more than doubling his amount of attempts as a rookie.

After a two-week stint as a teammate of Fox’s with Team USA, P.J. Tucker came away with the same realization to which the entire basketball world will soon be privy.

“All these young guys like De’Aaron Fox is amazing, he is way better than I thought he was, not saying I didn’t think he was good, but he is really, really good,” Tucker said, per USA Basketball.

Fox received similar adulation from other national program players and coaches, but their assessment of Bagley’s performance with Team USA is what should have the Kings most excited. Fox’s All-NBA ceiling is a known commodity to those who closely followed the team last season. Bagley’s chances at ever receiving that honor, even after a First Team All-Rookie debut, were a matter worthy of much more debate, and frankly, skepticism.

Bagley is stuck between frontcourt positions at this early stage of his career. He’ll never be a game-changing rim-protector and must get stronger, but is still better suited checking opposing centers than chasing shooters around the perimeter. There is some switch potential with Bagley, though. He has good feet for a big man, and the ability to contest shots from behind after getting beaten off the bounce due to the jaw-dropping quickness with which he gets off the floor.

Concerns about his optimal role on defense, for now, take a backseat to the glowing praise he received from members of USA Basketball this summer. Bagley, like Fox, entered training camp in Las Vegas as a member of the Select Team, but left Sin City a week later having been added to the senior roster – the only sophomore to be considered for FIBA.

He decided to leave USA Basketball shortly thereafter, but not before the perception of his place in the league began to change. Bagley, a mega recruit dating back to his days as a high school underclassman, has long possessed the raw tools of an impact player. If so much talk of his refined shooting stroke and additional strength manifests itself on the floor, he’ll show more than flashes of fulfilling that long-held expectation on a game-by-game basis come the regular season.

Disclaimer: Sacramento’s net rating with Fox and Bagley on the floor was just a hair worse than its season-long number of minus 1.2, per NBA.com. Even in a perfect world of linear development further accelerated by ballyhooed summers, they won’t be ready to lead their team to the playoffs all by themselves. But it’s not like the Kings went a surprise 39-43 last season on the backs of their franchise cornerstones alone, either.

Buddy Hield is coming off one of the best long-range shooting seasons of all time, having drained 278 threes at a 42.7 percent clip – a blend of quantity and quality only ever surpassed by Steph Curry, according to Basketball-Reference. Bogdan Bogdanovic further staked his claim as one of the league’s most dynamic reserve playmakers, and Harry Giles III – finally getting his feet back under him after multiple ACL tears – at times flashed a higher degree of two-way potential than Bagley.

Sacramento overpaid for Dewayne Dedmon, Cory Joseph and Trevor Ariza in free agency. The same goes for Harrison Barnes’ wink-wink four-year, $85 millon deal, signed after he declined a $25 million player option on his existing contract. But it’s not like the Kings have ever been major players on the open market, and the final season of each contract given to those new additions is only partially-guaranteed, while Barnes’ declines in value over its duration.

More importantly, it’s impossible to put any price on what a playoff berth would mean for this franchise. Bonzi Wells was Sacramento’s leading scorer the last time it advanced to the postseason, all the way back in 2006.

Even so, none of the Kings’ offseason acquisitions is a panacea.

Dedmon’s solid rim-protecting numbers last season figure to help a team that finished just above dead last in that regard, but the Atlanta Hawks were actually stingier in the restricted area when he was on the bench, per NBA.com.

Joseph’s limitations as a shooter make him a tricky fit against certain matchups, especially given Fox and Hield’s need for major minutes, despite his rippling defensive value.

Ariza quietly made just 34.1 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes with the Phoenix Suns and Washington Wizards, and in his mid-thirties, usually saves his utmost defensive intensity for drastic circumstances of time and score.

But the Kings don’t need those guys, or even Barnes, to be something they aren’t to make the playoffs. Sacramento was just a game back of the LA Clippers for eighth in the West heading into the All-Star break last February. The difference this season between the Kings crumbling down the stretch and making a postseason push in March and April could be as simple as subtle improvements sparked by their offseason acquisitions, the hiring of Luke Walton or the marginal growth of young players.

Sacramento was 24th in transition defensive efficiency last season, per Cleaning The Glass, a finish that would be disappointing in 2019-20 due to the presence of defensive-minded veterans and a coach with years of experience managing solid defense despite his teams pushing the pace.

Fox already draws fouls at an elite rate for a point guard; the Kings will be better on offense this season merely by virtue of him getting more easy points at the free-throw line. With a versatile defender like Barnes and stretch big like Dedmon, they have an extra dose of lineup and stylistic flexibility up front, too.

The ugly truth is that Sacramento’s playoff hopes are largely out of its control. In a vacuum of on-paper rosters and perfect health, Walton’s team isn’t among the top eight in the Western Conference. But the regular season never goes according to plan. Some teams with especially active offseasons will struggle to coalesce, and star players, unfortunately, will suffer serious, season-changing injuries.

The Kings, finally, are in a position to take advantage once those opportunities present themselves. Long-term, though, they’re thinking bigger than ending the league’s longest postseason drought, and rightfully so considering the presence of Fox, Bagley and an enviable blend of young talent and veteran depth surrounding them.

“I didn’t come here three or four years ago to make the playoffs,” Kings general manager Vlade Divac, a key member of Sacramento’s last title contender, told Bleacher Report in December. “I came here to do some unfinished business, to build a championship team.”

Jack Winter is a Portland-based NBA writer in his first season with Basketball Insiders. He has prior experience with DIME Magazine, ESPN, Bleacher Report, and more.

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NBA Daily: The Stretch Run — The Lottery Version

Most of the next six weeks will be spent focusing on the race for the West’s No. 8 seed, but don’t lose track of the annual plummet to the bottom while attention is diverted elsewhere.

Douglas Farmer

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Despite every vague description of the 2020 draft class as weak, despite the NBA flattening the lottery odds a year ago, despite the competitive instincts genuinely within each roster throughout the league, tanking in the final months of the season is inevitable.

It will not be as pervasive as it may be leading into the already-hyped 2021 draft, and it certainly will not be as rampant as in The Process-headlined mid-2010s, but the idea of increasing lottery odds still holds logical merit. With the flattened odds, four subsets exist within the odds:

Nos. 9-14: Odds from 1 percent to 3 percent of landing the top pick.
Nos. 7-8: Odds of 6 percent.
Nos. 4-6: Odds from 9 percent to 12.5 percent.
Nos. 1-3: Odds of 14 percent.

In the run-up to May 19’s lottery, many will remind that both the New Orleans Pelicans and the Memphis Grizzlies lept from those 6-percent slots into the top-two spots in the draft a year ago — but the focus should still be at the absolute bottom of the standings, where the Golden State Warriors may already have locked up one of the 14-percent opportunities.

The Warriors’ 44 losses are five ahead of — or is it behind? — the Detroit Pistons’ 39, which would necessitate quite a winning boost to overcome, even with Stephen Curry returning sometime next month. The better question is, who will spiral to the other two 14-percent chances? Basketball Insiders may be devoting much of the week to the “Stretch Run” as it applies to the league’s leaders, but five other teams will be racing down to only two spots:

Cleveland Cavaliers: 14-40 currently, 2-8 in their last 10.
Atlanta Hawks: 16-41, 4-6 in their last 10.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 16-37, 1-9 in their last 10.
New York Knicks: 17-38, 5-5 in their last 10.
Detroit Pistons: 19-39, 2-8 in their last 10.

The trade deadline provided some clarity in these franchises’ grander plans, most specifically that the Pistons have little-to-no intent of competing in the near future. With Blake Griffin sidelined, Andre Drummond traded and Reggie Jackson bought out, Detroit’s starting lineup now features a pair of names that the more casual fan might struggle to spell — Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk and Sekou Doumbouya, for the record.

That three-game lead in the win column should not hold up for long. Consider their next six games: At Portland, at Denver, at Phoenix, at Sacramento, vs. Oklahoma City and vs. Utah. To be blunt, the Pistons will likely lose all six.

If anyone will match Detroit, it may be the Timberwolves, particularly with franchise cornerstone Karl-Anthony Towns out indefinitely with a wrist injury. Minnesota’s next six games may include plausibly-winnable games at Orlando and against the Dallas Mavericks, but the Timberwolves have already strung together losing streaks of 11 and 13 games this season. The trade deadline may have reinvented most of Minnesota’s roster, but Towns’ absence may spur another notable losing streak.

If any of these teams might separate itself with wins, it would be the Knicks. They started 4-18 under David Fizdale but have gone 13-20 since under interim head coach Mike Miller. That latter winning rate would have New York at 21 or 22 wins currently, if spread across the entire season to date. Continuing at that pace should distance the Knicks from the best lottery odds, albeit just to still plenty desirable chances.

If such a shift occurs in Cleveland under freshly-instated head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, then suddenly this lottery-driven stretch run may include only the Timberwolves and Pistons. The Hawks’ moves at the deadline — namely trading for Clint Capela and Dewayne Dedmon — suggest their time pursuing the most ping-pong balls has ended. Their results underscore the value of rising in the lottery no matter the draft; landing Trae Young may be best remembered, but the less-heralded drafting of De’Andre Hunter is increasingly paying off.

The 2020 version of notable tanking is more a selective stagger, one likely to apply to only a couple franchises — currently squabbling over a mere 1.5 percent in lottery odds. In any other avenue of life, that would hardly be enough to fret over, but when it may be the difference in landing Anthony Edwards, James Wiseman or LaMelo Ball, that 1.5 percent still means a great deal to these franchises.

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NBA Daily: The Stretch Run – Atlantic Division

Ben Nadeau praises the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers, while also gently eulogizing another season gone wrong for both teams in New York.

Ben Nadeau

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The Stretch Run.

With 20-odd games remaining on the schedule, it’s officially make-or-break time for the majority of the league — unless your franchise rhymes with Los Shamjealous or Hillmockie, of course. With tantalizing lottery picks for those that bottom out or home-court postseason revenue for teams that push forward, the post-All-Star break jockeying is always fascinating.

As of Feb. 20, however, most of the Eastern Conference — and particularly so, the Atlantic Division — is cut and dried. From hyped-up expectations to the somewhat-disappointing, one of the conference’s perennially-strongest divisions is looking robust once again. Although all of them presumably lag behind the Giannis Antetokounmpo-led Bucks, the bloodbath for the right to face Milwaukee appears to be better than ever.

But before even getting into the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets’ varying playoff hopes, a rapid-fire eulogy for the New York Knicks must first be had. Fans who once dreamt off trotting out Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Zion Williamson — but ask the Nets and New Orleans Pelicans how life without them went, to be fair — had to settle for trading away Marcus Morris at the trade deadline earlier this month.

At 17-38, there are only a handful of franchises worse off in the standings department — Minnesota, Atlanta, Cleveland and Golden State — and absurdity continues to reign in Manhattan. David Fizdale was unceremoniously ousted in December and was replaced by interim head coach Mike Miller, who was then (accidentally) dissed by Steve Stoute on an ESPN morning show. Even Steve Mills was out as president after tapping Leon Rose, another superagent turned front office executive.

On the roster side, Frank Ntilikina is playing less than ever, the aforementioned Morris led the team in points per game (19.6) and Bobby Portis already shot down any idea of a buyout. Kevin Knox, 20, has seen his minutes and averages nearly halved, while Mitchell Robinson has only played more than 25 minutes on 18 occasions. The Knicks desperately have searched for continuity and clarity only to come up empty-handed time and time again.

Thankfully, RJ Barrett looks like the real deal and, according to Marc Berman of The New York Post, the Knicks have begun to look at the upcoming draft to nail down a scoring point guard as the next franchise cornerstone.

With some real, tangible turnover in New York — and some incredibly solid youngsters to boot — it’s far too early to anoint the franchise as revitalized, but they’ve taken some important first steps toward doing so.

And despite stealing away Durant and Irving during the offseason, their cross-river rivals in Brooklyn haven’t fared much better at all. Irving, when he’s played, has been sensational — unfortunately, he’s reached the floor in just 20 total games thus far and is now out indefinitely (again) after re-aggravating that troublesome right shoulder (again). The 27-year-old point guard missed the All-Star Game for the first time since 2015-16 and his season — plus whatever lingering postseason hopes the Nets had — are quickly setting. Durant, as planned, hasn’t logged a minute yet — and likely won’t — while Rodions Kurucs hasn’t matched last year’s breakout campaign and Joe Harris has seen a considerable drop from three-point range too.

At 25-28, Brooklyn owns the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference, some 2.5 games ahead of the Orlando Magic. It’s hard to imagine the Nets falling out of the postseason entirely — the ninth-seeded Washington Wizards are just 20-33 — but there’s little chance they catch the Indiana Pacers at No. 6, especially following the return of Victor Oladipo. If Irving is shelved for much longer and Durant sits out the entire year, the Nets’ best-case scenario becomes stealing a postseason game from Milwaukee or Toronto before bowing out in the first round.

After arguably winning the offseason, it’s a tough pill to swallow in Brooklyn — but, at the very least, there are undeniable better days ahead.

And then that leaves three: Toronto, Boston and Philadelphia.

Today, at 34-21, the 76ers are the most disappointing of the bunch as they often struggle to play to both Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid’s strengths at once. Simmons, 23, for all his other-worldly playmaking — and previous talk of a summertime-made jumper — has only attempted six three-pointers in 2019-20. The defense is as fearful as ever and rates at 106.1 — good for fourth-best, but sadly behind the Celtics, Raptors and Bucks — so counting the 76ers out of a deep playoff run would be downright shameful.

But in back-to-back-to-back contests before the All-Star break, the 76ers lost to the Celtics, Miami HEAT — the franchise occupying the No. 4 seed ahead of them — and Bucks. The deadline fits of both Glenn Robinson III and Alec Burks need some time, but Philadelphia is one of the few legitimate contenders in the conference that actually tried to improve their roster this month — which speaks to the still-strong internal hopes of the franchise.

Just as the Nets are nearly locked into the No. 7 or 8 seed, the 76ers won’t drop any lower than sixth place either. And although both Boston and Toronto have gained an inch of separation in the conference hierarchy, Philadelphia now finds themselves in the midst of a three-team brawl for home-court advantage in the first round. With Philadelphia’s unbelievable ceiling of potential and inherent inconsistency, it’s too early to predict where exactly they’ve fall come playoff time — but, make no mistake, this is a roster no opposing team will be excited to face.

On the other hand, Boston is peaking at just the right time as head coach Brad Stevens continues to push all the right buttons. Jayson Tatum, fresh off his first-ever All-Star berth, is a force to be reckoned with (22.4 points, 6.9 rebounds) and Kemba Walker has found himself right at home in the Garden. Surely the Celtics would love to avoid the Bucks for as long as possible and to do so, they’ll need to skip Toronto over the season’s final few months — however, even without Kawhi Leonard, that’s easier said than done.

The Celtics boast top-five ratings on both sides of the ball and, in spite of everybody’s doomsday-worthy proclamations, the 1-2 punch of Enes Kanter and Daniel Theis under the rim have more than sufficed. It’ll begin to sound like a repetitive cliche — and just wait for Toronto to fill out this trifecta — but Boston is still Boston: Hard-nosed and even harder-working, they’re an absolute shoo-in for home-court advantage in the first round at the very least.

But the Raptors currently stand as the Atlantic Division crown jewel, ready as ever to defend their conference throne.

You know the details by now: Leonard is dealt to Toronto and he wins the city their first-ever championship ring before signing with Los Angeles last July. Without last weekend’s All-Star MVP in tow, the Raptors were expected to sharply fall down the standings — playoffs, maybe, but this? Certainly not.

This is domination. This is an elite defensive unit. This is a franchise that not only lived on after their superstar left — but then thrived off that departure. Sans Leonard, the Raptors are only 40-15, good for the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. Crazier, right now, the Raptors are on pace to win as many regular-season games as they did with Leonard.

If not for the single-digit loss Bucks, they’d probably be the NBA’s darling story of the season once again. Pascal Siakam, 25, has blossomed into superstardom — 23.5 points, 7.5 rebounds — and is a more-than-worthy mark to pin the franchise’s back-to-back hopes upon. But perhaps even more impressive is Toronto’s ability to shuffle through next-man-up cards with reckless abandon. In fact, post-All-Star break, Terence Davis, an undrafted rookie, is the only player to have featured in all 55 games.

Every major member outside of OG Anunoby has missed a chunk of the season, too: Fred VanVleet, 10; Pascal Siakam, 11; Serge Ibaka, 11; Kyle Lowry, 12; Norman Powell, 17; Marc Gasol, 20.

And yet, they relentlessly compete like bonafide champions.

Toronto is likely destined for a second-round showdown with either Boston and Philadelphia — that much seems ultimately clear. But in the conference’s suddenly-thickening race to the top, for the first time in a long time, it’s still anybody’s best guess as to who will come out on top. Simply put, if you want star power — bank on Simmons, Embiid and the 76ers. If you want pedigreed basketball on both sides of the floor — there’s Walker, Tatum and the Celtics.

But if you want to back a franchise that was left for relative dead mere months after hoisting a championship trophy — well, Siakam, Lowry and the Raptors may just be the heavyweight title contender the conference has been waiting for.

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NBA Daily: Collin Sexton’s First All-Star Weekend A Success

Spencer Davies looks back at Cleveland Cavaliers guard Collin Sexton’s first-time experience at NBA All-Star weekend in Chicago.

Spencer Davies

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It was early Friday afternoon at the Wintrust Arena in Chicago, the stage was set to kick off a laid-back weekend of celebration on NBA All-Star Weekend and commend the hard work of the brightest young talents, both national and international, the league had to offer.

The events of the 72-hour spectacle are meant to be enjoyed, connecting with others and soaking in the experience as a reward rather than being a full-on competition. Added to the U.S. Team roster as a replacement for injured Miami HEAT rookie Tyler Herro, Cleveland Cavaliers guard Collin Sexton did just that. Between a multitude of media appearances in the bright lights with cameras all around, the 21-year-old upstart took advantage of the opportunities to expose his personality to a national audience.

But amidst the fun, Sexton still went the extra mile as he always does. Phil Handy, a former Cavaliers assistant who worked famously with Kyrie Irving and the man that conducted Sexton’s pre-draft workout with Cleveland, was the head coach of the U.S. Team. So the one they call Young Bull decided to take full advantage with a post-practice workout when the floor cleared.

“[He’s worked with] great guards, yeah. He’s a great guy,” Sexton told Basketball Insiders. “He just told me to continue to get better, continue to work, continue to strive to be great. He talked to me a little bit about Kobe [Bryant] and his time with him, so I just got a good takeaway from him.”

Additional work at a practice to improve his game and prepare for an exhibition contest during a time that was meant for fun? It’s par for the course in his world. Just weeks prior following the Cavaliers’ loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road, a team source revealed to Basketball Insiders that Sexton went to Cleveland’s practice facility after landing in Northeast Ohio in the early morning hours to hone his craft.

“Dude’s motor doesn’t stop,” the source said.

“Oh naw, I work hard. When I feel like…if I’m on the court, I’mma do whatever I’ve gotta do. No days off, whatever,” Sexton told Basketball Insiders of his never-ending drive. “If it’s taking care of my body or just stretching or lifting, it’s not always about shooting and stuff like that. You’ve just gotta do the little things and that’s going to help you in the future.”

Though Sexton wasn’t used to the kind of attention he was receiving in the Windy City, he was determined to prove that he belongs. Usually taking a business-like approach to downplay things of this nature, he admitted how amazing it felt to achieve the milestone and be a part of the most popular three-day stretch the NBA has to offer.

“I feel like all my hard work, it paid off. So I’m glad to be here, especially with these group of guys, really good group. It’s an honor,” Sexton told Basketball Insiders that Friday morning.

Among star-studded sophomore names such as Luka Doncic and Trae Young, as well as human-highlight-reel rookies like Zion Williamson and Ja Morant, a motivated Sexton made his mark on the floor.

In 20 minutes of action, he poured in 21 points, nabbed five rebounds and dished out three assists. He shot 9-for-14 from the field, including three triples on six tries. And he even had a reverse jam on a bounce pass to himself, though he joked that it was “kinda weak.”

“At first, I was just chillin’ out there, wasn’t playing too hard. Then, you know, I can turn it on pretty quick,” Sexton said.

“Honestly, I just go out there and just play my game. Honestly, no matter who I’m put in the room with, I’mma do what I do,” Sexton told Basketball Insiders. “It’s exciting just because of like all the attention they bring, but me, being myself . . . I’m a dog too, so I’mma go out there and show everybody that I can represent as well.”

Sexton was the 20th Cavalier in franchise history to represent the team in the Rising Stars game since its inception in 1994. With a grin on his face naming those wine-and-golders who came before him, he was thinking ahead about the teammates that could now follow his lead.

Basketball Insiders saw a side of Sexton that hasn’t been seen much in Cleveland. He started a long media tour Thursday with a Yahoo-sponsored pop-a-shot contest followed it up with an NBA TV sitdown interview alongside Dennis Scott. While the next day was entirely centered on Rising Stars, he continued Saturday with an appearance for Metro By T-Mobile during a media-player role reversal contest and finished off at a Mountain Dew barbershop sit down with the legendary Scottie Pippen and other notorious players from the league.

Through all of the losing, through all of the tumultuous nature of his one-and-a-half seasons with the Cavaliers — who are hiring their fourth coach since the 2018 NBA Draft — Sexton is not going to change his approach. He’s not going to change who he is. He’s not going to veer into a different path because of another shift in direction.

“It’s a great experience for me just to take my bumps and bruises, to go out there and pretty much just play hard each and every night, and that’s what I’mma do,” Sexton told Basketball Insiders. “It’s tough losing because no one wants to lose. I feel like we’re moving in the right directions and we’ll get better and start winning.”

Whether people want to believe it or not, what he’s doing is working just fine.

All-Star Weekend proved it.

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