The August and September months are a slog for most NBA basketball fans, but they’re an important time for several important housekeeping items. Rosters are a key area of focus for front offices across the league, from possible cuts to training camp signees and guys on the bubble for the 15-man roster down the road. As Basketball Insiders’ Eric Pincus wrote recently, there are also a number of quietly important league deadlines looming around this time of year.
Most prominent among these is the rookie extension deadline of October 31, before which players entering their fourth year of a rookie-scale contract can negotiate with their incumbent teams regarding extensions that, if agreed upon, kick in to begin the 2017-18 season. If a player and team cannot reach an agreement before that Halloween date, the issue is effectively tabled and the player becomes a restricted free agent on July 1, 2017, with his incumbent team retaining matching rights on any outside offer sheet he signs.
The process is simple enough, but there are numerous variables at play that often make the execution a more complex affair. Teams can offer extra incentives to their very best players to keep them in town, which is why it’s extremely rare for a star-level player to change teams after his rookie deal, but many in the next tier down or below are playing a trickier game.
Locking a guy up before his final rookie-scale season keeps him completely away from the open market, a place where predatory competitors can tinker with poison-pill contracts that hurt a team’s position if they choose to match. Finalizing a deal early also offers the potential for a bargain contract if the player in question takes an unexpected leap in his fourth season.
On the other side of the coin, though, agreeing to a deal commits a team salary-wise regardless of the results in that fourth year. For deals signed with future development as part of the expectation, the risk of a bad contract down the line comes with the territory. Even if the superstars almost never go this route, a number of very talented guys have passed the deadline and hit restricted free agency in recent years.
Made up primarily of picks from the 2013 draft, the crop of extension-eligible players this fall represents a few distinct stylistic groupings: Rudy Gobert and Steven Adams highlight a strong group of “traditional” big men; Dennis Schroder and Michael Carter-Williams are two of several notable guards with numerous complementary skills but lack consistent jump-shooting; Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Otto Porter are among a number of emerging “3-and-D” specialists looking to cash in on the modern value of their role; and of course, as will be the case his whole career, Giannis Antetokounmpo gets his own special category.
Not all these players will receive deals before Halloween, and what’s signed – or not signed – could tell us a lot about how the league values these types of players as the NBA’s next crop of young talent move into their primes.
Primaries: Rudy Gobert, Steven Adams, Nerlens Noel, Gorgui Dieng, Mason Plumlee
Even the grandmothers of discerning hoops fans know the league is trending smaller, but several notable names are set to test that trend over the next couple months. Elite defense is still easiest with a dominant big guy manning the paint, and the best of them do enough other things to be among the most valuable commodities in the game despite a lack of shooting prowess.
Gobert and Adams are the headliners this fall, both undisputed defensive anchors who double as rim-running pick-and-roll threats on the other end of the floor. It’s tough to separate bouts of apparent stagnation from injury concerns after a stop-and-go third season where Gobert missed 21 games and couldn’t ever really find his rhythm. However, he’s cemented his reputation as one of the premier interior defenders in the game, with a few underappreciated supplementary skills to boot. Gobert could be nearly done developing at 24 years old, though – something the casual observer perhaps doesn’t consciously realize.
How the Utah Jazz will approach his situation will be telling, and could reflect a lesson learned a few years back. A difference of a few million dollars reportedly kept them from locking up Gordon Hayward in the summer of 2013, causing Utah to lose a year of Hayward’s services on the deal they eventually matched from the Charlotte Hornets. At the same time, Gobert’s extremely low cap hold next summer could leave open a big chunk of flexibility for additional upgrades – if the Frenchman is willing to play ball and voluntarily table his extension talks until mid-July, with the understanding that he wouldn’t ink a potentially harmful deal elsewhere in the meantime.
That’s a lot of risk, though. As noted by Dan Clayton on the latest Basketball Insiders podcast, that space under the cap the Jazz could conceivably save if they tabled Gobert’s talks might be significantly lessened or even eliminated anyway if the Jazz look to restructure Derrick Favors’ contract – something that makes so much sense that it’s been discussed by local outlets and our Eric Pincus for months. If that happens, a Gobert extension feels even more likely before the deadline.
There’s a similar calculus for Adams in Oklahoma City, where Sam Presti and crew have been silent to this point on extension talks for not only the big Kiwi, but also Victor Oladipo and Andre Roberson. Presti has typically acted early in these scenarios, and there’s a real chance the Thunder are playing the longer game here and hoping for trust – particularly from Adams.
After losing a ton of talent in Kevin Durant this summer, holding off on extensions and saving the cap space will allow OKC to take a real run at the free-agent market in their last chance to re-stock before Russell Westbrook hits unrestricted free agency in 2018. Adams might be the exception, especially if he’s willing to take a slight discount on his near-max value in exchange for security, but even in his case – and even with the understanding that he’s a core piece staying in Oklahoma City no matter what – a deal before the October 31 deadline seems like no sure thing.
For guys like Noel, Dieng and Plumlee, the final dollar figure is likely more interesting than the timing. Team roster situations could play a big role: Noel suddenly finds himself in a frontcourt cluster with multiple other lottery picks including No. 1 pick Ben Simmons, while Plumlee just watched seemingly every teammate (plus a new center in Festus Ezeli) get a huge raise and clog up Portland’s books ahead of his big extension summer. Dieng is the only one of the three with a relatively safe role, but it’s tough to gauge his value (and whether he’s worth locking up ahead of his fourth season) in a situation where he isn’t even the fourth-most valued young player on an up-and-coming team.
The way these guys are approached by their incumbent teams will be dictated in part by circumstance, but they could tell us something more. Are younger teams willing to pony up for big man talent even if it risks future flexibility, or will they test the perils of restricted free agency in hopes of finding more modern talent and (hopefully) still retaining their big later on?
Primaries: Dennis Schroder, Michael Carter-Williams, Victor Oladipo
An even smaller niche as the league modernizes is the talented ball-handler who does many things well but can’t shoot an accurate enough jumper, and several notable candidates for extensions dot the pool in this category as well.
Oladipo may fall into a similar category as Adams in Oklahoma City. With a huge summer already on the horizon next year, it’s tough to imagine Presti and Co. committing a big number to a guy who hasn’t even played a game in a Thunder uniform yet. Carter-Williams feels like even more of a lock to enter the 2016-17 season without an extension, especially considering the Bucks just brought in Matthew Dellavedova at the same position. And even if there’s money left for Carter-Williams after Antetokounmpo gets his expected max raise, it’s unlikely John Hammond and his brain trust will want to shell it out before seeing how things fit on the floor.
Schroder probably falls between those two skill-wise, but he’s a completely different ballgame. The Hawks signaled his inheritance of their starting point guard position when they traded away Jeff Teague before the draft; letting Schroder enter his final rookie-scale year without an extension in place would appear to run completely contrary to this line of thinking.
That doesn’t mean it’s a sure thing, of course. Schroder and his representation surely recognize this same reality, and could be pushing for a big payday. Will they be willing to play the game of chicken and refuse a fair market extension, demanding more or allowing Schroder to prove his own value as a starter? Like always, it’s a big risk – a career 32 percent three-point shooter at the point has a ceiling, and Schroder probably isn’t upping his current value next year unless that sees a real uptick. There would appear to be motivation on both sides to get a deal done before October 31.
These types are a dying breed in the NBA, and their eventual market could reflect that. Teams might be more willing to let restricted free agency dictate their value; in return for security, these players and their agents might become amenable to accepting less than what they feel they’re worth. What we hear and see on these names in the next couple months will be telling.
Primaries: Otto Porter, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Andre Roberson
Where traditional centers and non-shooting guards could have a plethora of talents but be left behind for lacking one or two vital skills, “3-and-D” wings are completely at the other end of the spectrum: Even if they’re pretty limited in many aspects of the game, the value of these kinds of players is exploding if both “3” and “D” are present in their skill set. Kent Bazemore, an athletic but limited swingman who does pretty little outside shooting threes and defending multiple spots on the perimeter, got a payday the same size as Dwight Howard this summer.
Exactly how far this concept can stretch will be tested by this extension season, and Porter might be the perfect case. At 23 and sporting a career 35 percent mark from deep, Porter barely qualifies in one half of the equation; many in Washington will tell you it’s a coin flip for the “D” part on a given night as well. Metrics may disagree on the latter half – ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus placed Porter in the upper tier of defenders at the small forward spot, and others have similar outputs. In either case, Porter isn’t doing a whole lot else on the court.
With the other two members of Washington’s starting perimeter eating up a combined $40 million or more every year moving forward (and reportedly feuding to some extent), whether these glue skills alone are enough to break out the checkbook yet again for Porter is an intriguing question. Porter and his representation know full well the value the league places on his primary functions, and could easily be willing to risk injury or slight regression to let him hit the market next summer if the Wizards are reticent to commit so much money to three guys.
It feels like a more tightly-run ship in Detroit currently, but that doesn’t make Caldwell-Pope’s impending extension eligibility any less complex. Barring a sizable salary-shedding move before July, a deal with KCP this fall would immediately stamp out any cap space the Pistons may have been hoping to use on the free agent market in 2017. If Stan Van Gundy is going to act now, it’s with a virtual certainty that this is his group for the future.
Van Gundy is a savvy executive, though. He already curried favor among his players by rewarding Andre Drummond with a deserved five-year max after Drummond did the franchise a solid and waited on his own rookie extension, allowing the Pistons to sign additional pieces alongside him. It’s tougher with a non-max guy like KCP, but look for the same approach here; Van Gundy can sell team loyalty after a successful 2016 summer, and might even be able to kill two birds by adding more talent next offseason before once again rewarding one of his guys for their patience. There’s still a lot of risk here though, and Caldwell-Pope’s agent, Rich Paul, is known for hard-nosed bargaining.
Further still, this is a distinct seller’s market. There are fewer capable “3-and-D” guys in the league than there are needs for such players. The summer of 2017 will introduce even more money into the equation, and guys like Porter and Caldwell-Pope simply have to look back at the contracts signed in the past few months to see what they might be in for. Their team situations could determine outcomes this fall, but just how far the league’s obsession with these two skills stretches will be interesting to track through next offseason.
NBA Daily: Five Storylines to Watch Down the Stretch
Shane Rhodes breaks down five storylines to keep an eye on as we approach the postseason.
The NBA was as active as ever prior to All-Star Break. Multiple trades (some of the blockbuster variety) were made as Anthony Davis rumors swirled, players butted heads with the media, and buyouts were made. There was news abound.
And there should be even more to come with teams prepped for the stretch run.
The last push toward the postseason has always been a tense one, for teams in and teams out alike. But what could be the biggest stories as we head into the last weeks of the regular season?
The Eastern Conference Arms Race
The battle for Eastern Conference supremacy has shown to be a hard fought one.
With LeBron James gone, there has been power-vacuum in the East, with multiple teams vying for the spot of best in the Conference. The Milwaukee Bucks have had the upper hand for much of the season – and should be considered the favorite to end the regular season in the top spot – but just 7.5 games separate them from the fifth-seed Boston Celtics, with the Toronto Raptors, Indiana Pacers and Philadelphia 76ers sandwiched in between.
While the NBA as a whole may seem cut and dry – the Golden State Warriors and everyone else – the East is not so simple. The Bucks, Celtics, Pacers, Raptors and 76ers all have talented rosters, but there is, effectively a deadlock between them. No one roster in this group is significantly more talented than another and no one team has shown that they can get the better of the other four on a consistent basis; every game between them has been competitive, and that should only reach another level as they square off against for the right to go to the NBA Finals.
Aside from the postseason positioning, the stretch-run for these individual teams could prove crucial to their offseason. Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris are all expected to hit the market and, if their respective teams fade, the chances of retaining their services may fade as well.
The Competitive Postseason Bubble
There are a number of teams, both Eastern and Western Conference, that have found themselves on the post-break postseason bubble.
In the East, just five games separate the sixth-seed Brooklyn Nets and the 11-seed Washington Wizards. While it may not be the cream of the crop going at it every night, these last few games will almost certainly be more competitive as players watch the standings and teams look to make up ground and push their seasons onward through April.
Out West, it’s more of the same.
Just four games separate the fifth-seed Houston Rockets and the 10-seed Los Angeles Lakers. Likewise, an uptick in competitive energy should be expected. However, there may be a bit more fireworks out West, as the Sacramento Kings, who have surprised everyone this season, look for their first postseason-berth since 2006. Meanwhile, the Lakers, in their first season with James, may miss the postseason altogether after they were pegged as a near-lock before the season.
The Utah Jazz, San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers all present their own interesting scenarios as well.
Regardless of the final outcome in either Conference, expect an exciting, if not frantic, end to the regular season.
The Three-Man Race for the MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden and Paul George have each put forth superhuman effort this season. In a neck-and-neck race for the Most Valuable Player award, these three have proven to be invaluable to their respective teams and shown on a nightly basis that they belong among the NBA elite.
But, only one of them can win the award. So, who will take home the hardware?
Each player has made a compelling case so far; what Antetokounmpo does for the Bucks — and what he does to the box score (27.2 points, 12.7 rebounds, six assists per game) — on a nightly basis is self-explanatory; James Harden has willed the Houston Rockets into the postseason picture with some historic scoring numbers; and Paul George has shown that he is one of the best two-way players in the NBA and shouldered the load in Oklahoma City as Russell Westbrook has struggled.
As teams inch closer to the postseason, most will take the opportunity to rest their stars. If anyone of these players fades down the stretch — whether it be because of rest, fatigue or otherwise — the others could almost certainly use it to their advantage. If none of them slow down, however, the race between Antetokounmpo, Harden and George could prove one of the tightest we’ve ever seen.
The Anthony Davis Situation
The New Orleans Pelicans and Anthony Davis are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Anthony Davis doesn’t want to continue his career in New Orleans, but he does want to continue playing this season. However, the Pelicans have the right to protect themselves from a potential Davis injury, one that could irreparably damage his trade value and New Orleans’ future. Meanwhile, the NBA will almost certainly not want Davis, a premier player, languishing on the bench.
So, where do things go from here? Well, they get pretty awkward.
The Pelicans, Davis and the NBA need to come together in agreement on the best path forward for all parties involved and, with a handful of games remaining, they don’t have long to do so. At the very least, expect Davis to play far fewer minutes than he is accustomed to as the Pelicans look to minimize any and all injury risks.
The Battle for Zion
Not every team has the chance to make the postseason. But, with a generational talent like Zion Williamson on the line, not every team wants to make the postseason this year.
The New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks and Phoenix Suns, have wallowed near the bottom of the NBA barrel for the entire season, all with their eyes fixed on Tuesday, May 14: the NBA Draft Lottery. While the NBA instituted a new lottery system to discourage tanking — the bottom three teams share the best chance at the top pick — it hasn’t stopped these teams from losing as many games as possible in a bid to make Williamson the first player off the board in the 2019 NBA Draft.
In a weird, backward way, it could be fun to watch these five teams “compete” for the bottom three spots and, eventually, the rights to Williamson.
As we inch closer to the postseason, don’t expect the NBA to wind down. While it may not seem as eventful trade season, these last few weeks of the regular season have a chance to be some of the most eventful of the entire year.
NBA Daily: Examining the Eastern Conference Contenders
Matt John takes a look at the four titans who will be fighting for the Eastern Conference crown this May.
The day after the trade deadline passed, LeBron James had some interesting things to say about the arms race that was going down between the Eastern Conference titans.
“They know they ain’t gotta go through Cleveland anymore,” James said. “Everybody in the East thinks they can get to the Finals because they ain’t gotta go through me.”
It’s notable that the Lakers are currently toeing the line between making the playoffs and playing the lottery odds. That does, however, beg the question: What if LeBron stayed in Cleveland?
Now if that had happened, then a lot of things would probably be different for the Cavaliers right now. There’s no telling if they would have kept the pick the Nets owed them, or if they would be playing Kyle Korver, George Hill, and J.R. Smith right now.
It would have added another intriguing wrinkle to what has been the tightest formerly-five-currently-four-man race going on at the top of the Eastern Conference in quite some time. Whether you agree that Cleveland would still be the frontrunner in the East with James, there doesn’t really appear to be a clear-cut favorite to represent the East anymore. Plenty of fans and analysts would give their takes on who stands out among the pack, but there’s no consensus pick.
In a sense, LeBron’s kind of right. He was a tyrant – or a “King” if you will – that set the bar year-in and year-out for the past decade. It gave his rivals motivation to play at one hundred percent, though it made the East a little predictable. With LeBron gone, the suspense as to who will take his throne makes it all the more fun.
The season is now coming down the home stretch. With less than 25 games left, Milwaukee, Toronto, Philadelphia, and Boston will fight tooth and nail to get home court advantage over each other. Who has the edge? Well, let’s take a look.
Strength of Remaining Schedule: .465 (27th overall)
Record against competitors: 5-2
They finally did it. After years of looking as incredible as they were inconsistent, the Bucks have hit a breakthrough. It turns out all they needed was to put the right personnel around the Greek Freak (i.e. floor spacers and impact defenders). Oh, and a coach who could bring all of the notable talent together. The pieces are now fitting into place for the Bucks. Giannis is now going full-throttle with a supporting cast who only make Milwaukee all the harder to stop. Their league-leading point differential (9.6) tops the league by a fair margin, which indicates that this may not only be a fluke but the first sign of the glorious future we all believed the Bucks had.
MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo – If it weren’t for James Harden putting up legendary numbers, Giannis would be the frontrunner for MVP. So much has been said about him that there’s not much to be added, so let’s leave it at this. Many have said if he starts hitting threes, he’ll be unstoppable. When you see his dominance in the paint – he’s shooting 77.3 percent in the paint – it makes you wonder if he really has to.
X-Factor: Eric Bledsoe – He’s had a nice bounce-back after a rocky half-season in Milwaukee. The record still stands that he was outplayed by Terry Rozier in his first playoff action as a starter. If the Bucks are to maintain their success in the postseason, Bledsoe must avoid a repeat performance from last postseason.
Unsung Hero: Malcolm Brogdon – People can scoff all they want at Brogdon’s Rookie of the Year Award. The fact is, the Bucks absolutely need him. They are +7.1 with him on the court, good for second behind, well, who do you think?
Pivotal Question: Will the supporting cast (including Coach Bud) keep it up in the playoffs?
Strength of Remaining Schedule: .450 (30th overall)
Record against competitors: 6-5
Do you know what’s odd about the Raptors? Going by net rating, they’ve actually taken a step back this season. Last season, the Raptors had the second best offensive rating (113.8) and the fifth best defensive rating (105.9). This season, they have the seventh-best offensive rating (113) and the eighth best defensive rating (107.4). Yet somehow, the genuine belief is that this is the best team they’ve ever assembled. With Marc Gasol and Jeremy Lin added to the team, the Raptors have made it clear that they’re not messing around.
MVP: Kawhi Leonard – Remember when Kevin Durant implied that Kawhi was a system player for the Spurs? Maybe that’s why Kawhi wanted out because he’s proven that notion wrong. He hasn’t skipped a beat in Canada and has even averaged career-highs both in scoring and rebounding average. He’d be an MVP candidate if he hadn’t missed 16 games.
X-Factor: Kyle Lowry – If Leonard is going to be the alpha dog of this team, he needs a second-in-command. Lowry’s numbers have dipped, but he’s got the experience. He’s folded in the playoffs before. Perhaps with less pressure, he can step up his game.
Unsung Hero: Serge Ibaka – With everything else that’s gone right for Toronto, Ibaka’s full acclimation to the center position has given him new life offensively. He’s putting up some of the best scoring, rebounding, and assist averages he’s had either ever or in years.
Pivotal Question: Will Nick Nurse get the team finally past its long-lived playoff demons?
Strength of Remaining Schedule: .486 (21st Overall)
Record against competitors: 1-7
We have seen three iterations of the Sixers this season. One with Dario Saric and Robert Covington, one that added Jimmy Butler, then one that added primarily Tobias Harris among others. That’s a lot of talent to integrate in such a short time. Lucky for them, by adding Butler and Harris, the Sixers have the most talented starting five in the East. The Process is now at 100 percent capacity. They may have holes, but their Warriors-esque talent level may make it so that it won’t be a problem.
MVP: Joel Embiid – At age 24, Embiid has now taken his first steps into superstardom. 27.3 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists along with 1.9 blocks is sure to Joel among the ranks of the league’s top centers. Perhaps what’s most encouraging is that, before this recent knee ailment, Embiid has only missed five games.
X-Factor: The Bench – The Sixers also loaded up the second unit by adding Boban Marjanovic, Mike Scott, Jonathon Simmons and James Ennis III. By doing so, they really are committing to positionless basketball. It honestly could work if they use it to the best advantage they could.
Unsung Hero: Jimmy Butler – Butler’s fit with the Sixers hasn’t been smooth, but, even with the decreased scoring numbers, Butler is quietly putting up some of the most efficient percentages he’s ever had this season, both from three and the field itself.
Pivotal Question: Will they be able to stop any elite point guards?
Strength of Remaining Schedule: .516 (10th Overall)
Record against competitors: 6-3
The Celtics are somehow a team that’s played badly enough that they’re a disappointment yet played well enough that people shouldn’t give up on them. After a mediocre start, most of the results that have come from the Celtics have been positive. That’s come with some frustrating losses, but the team has been resilient after every bad stretch they’ve had. A common characteristic of Brad Stevens teams is that they play at their best as the season approaches its end. With their guys finally getting past their injury issues, we may see more of the same in the best way yet.
MVP: Kyrie Irving – Kyrie’s chaotic free agency plans have gotten in the way of what’s been a great season for him. He’s put up his usual scoring numbers, but his passing, rebounding and defense have been the best they’ve ever been. The Celtics have proven their fine without him. They’re still better off having him on the court.
X-Factor: Gordon Hayward – It’s been reported to death by now that Hayward’s made some encouraging process in recent weeks. Let’s leave it at this – if he is 100 percent by the playoffs, that makes the Celtics so much scarier. People forget just how good Gordon Hayward was merely two years ago.
Unsung Hero: Al Horford – After the last Celtics-Sixers game, many believe Horford is going to be a matchup problem for Embiid. Correction: Horford’s skillset and IQ make him a matchup problem for everyone.
Pivotal Question: Will they find a consistent rhythm by the season’s end?
Some of you are probably going to be outraged that Indiana is not included on this list, and for good reason. They still are the third-seeded team in the East, they’ve just recently had a six-game winning streak snapped, and they have one of the league’s best defenses.
With all due respect, it’s pretty simple. No Victor Oladipo, no contest. The Pacers are still one of the most well-liked and well-rounded teams in the league. It doesn’t change the fact that in the playoffs, having star power gives a huge advantage. Without Oladipo, Indiana is completely deprived of it.
If it’s any comfort, with a fully healthy Oladipo next season, they are more than worthy of being put with this group.
Here’s to hoping that by next year, this group will stay the same when he does.
NBA Daily: Are The Kings Destined For The Playoffs?
As the season starts up again after the All-Star Break, Jordan Hicks looks into the Sacramento Kings and what it will take for them to end their playoff drought.
Sacramento Kings fans should be incredibly happy regardless of how this season ends.
For the first time in what seems like forever they have a promising young team that is not only winning games, but maintaining a certain form of consistency doing so. With the foundation of youthful stars like De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Marvin Bagley III, how can Kings faithful not be hyper-optimistic?
The Kings are geared for success over the course of the next few years, but could their time come sooner than that? Do they actually have a shot at making the playoffs this season? The trade deadline acquisitions of Harrison Barnes and Alec Burks, two vets that can make an instant impact, make it seem like they believe their time is now.
Breaking things down, the question becomes – what actually needs to happen for the Kings to make the playoffs this season? The simple answer is to win games.
What have they been doing thus far to put more ticks in the W column? Shooting the three efficiently jumps out. They are currently fourth in the league in three-point percentage at 37.7 percent. While this number is oddly similar to last season’s percentage, they are shooting about seven more threes per game.
Sacramento is also playing incredibly quick basketball. They are second in the league in pace (the number of possessions per 48 minutes). Some could argue that this doesn’t always translate into a positive outcome, but for Sacramento it does. They are leading the NBA in fastbreak points at 21.7 points per game and are sixth in the league at points in the paint. Their defense is translating into offense as well, as they are second in the league at points off turnovers.
While their strengths are definitely elite, they clearly have weaknesses, too. They sit in 18th for both offensive and defensive rating, good for a -1.2 net rating. They are an abysmal 28th in free throw shooting.
Apart from Willie Cauley-Stein – who likely isn’t a major part of their future – they lack an elite rim protector. This leaves their defense prone to giving up more points in the paint. They are currently 26th in the league at opponent points in the paint. The lack of rim protection clearly correlates with their inability to grab defensive boards. They are tied for last in the league at opponent second-chance points.
One would assume that if the Kings simply tighten up their defensive focus that they would be able to close out strong and make the playoffs. They are currently ninth in the West, only one-and-a-half games behind the Clippers who just traded away their best player in Tobias Harris and two-and-a-half games behind the Spurs, who are somehow putting together a strong season despite losing Kawhi Leonard via trade and Dejounte Murray to injury.
As the season gets deeper, however, the Kings won’t be the only team tightening things up for a final playoff push. Every other team will likely be doing the same thing. While the Kings are just a small shot from the playoffs, both the Lakers and Timberwolves are nipping at their heels as well.
The Warriors, Nuggets and Thunder have done enough to separate themselves from the pack, to a degree at least. So that essentially leaves eight teams fighting for the remaining five slots. You can likely write off the Clippers, as they traded away their star player for future assets, and quite possibly the Timberwolves, as they may not have enough depth on their roster. This leaves the Kings and Lakers. If history has taught us anything, it’s that LeBron James likes to play in the postseason.
Sacramento has 24 games left to play this season. Their next two are at Oklahoma City and Minnesota. If they can somehow manage to squeak out one win in that stretch that will keep them above .500 and still fighting for a spot. After that stretch, 11 of their final 22 games are against teams projected to make the playoffs. Apart from two games against the Knicks, one against the Suns, and one against the Cavaliers, none of the remaining 11 games not against playoff teams will be “gimmes.”
Their final three are away against Utah, home against New Orleans and away against Portland. For sure they will be battling with two (and potentially three) of those teams for playoff positioning.
As far as the Lakers – who after their head-to-head win Thursday are a game behind Sacramento and two games out of the playoffs – their schedule isn’t much easier. 15 of their final 24 games are against projected playoff teams. That victory over Sacramento at Staples could actually end up being incredibly important for who makes the playoffs and who loses out.
Whether or not the Kings make the playoffs is anyone’s guess. If Fox and Hield play elite ball to close out the season, that will definitely increase their chances. Strong play from deadline acquisitions Burks and Barnes will also play a huge role in the Kings’ final push.
Like previously mentioned, Kings’ fans should be happy either way. This is the brightest the team’s future has been in well over a decade.
But the Kings likely won’t settle for “promising” or “up-and-coming.” They want success now, and making the playoffs will give them the reward that they’ve been working so hard for.