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Is Aiding A Weakness Worth Sacrificing A Strength?

With the trade deadline fast approaching, Matt John dives into instances where teams gave up some of their talent in order to help the weaker aspects of their roster.

Matt John

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Before we begin, something, or someone, needs to be addressed- the death of one Kobe “Bean” Bryant. The NBA community lost one of its biggest icons over the weekend when Bryant lost his life in a helicopter crash. This news is very tragic seeing how popular Kobe was both during and after his time in the NBA and how young he was when he passed on.

It’s hard to write anything period right now because tragedies like these almost never happen, and in Kobe’s case, no one could have ever imagined that it would end for him so tragically soon. It’s going to be a long time before everyone can fully process this. Some of us may never be able to. If you’re still understandably grieving, take your time.

Let’s also remember the other lives that were lost that day, which included Kobe’s daughter Gianna Bryant, and keep them in your prayers if you haven’t already. There are plenty of videos and articles that go into much more detail about the man and the player that Kobe Bryant was. Please feel free to check those out, because fair warning, this won’t be a piece about the man who once donned the numbers 8 and 24.

This is going to be about the trading season. The trade deadline is less than two weeks away. Slowly but surely, trade buzz is now heating up. Over the past few weeks, the Minnesota Timberwolves added some desperately needed shooting while the Atlanta Hawks wanted some nostalgia in an already lost season. The Golden State Warriors are going full throttle on their tank job, while the Dallas Mavericks have adjusted accordingly following Dwight Powell’s devastating Achilles injury.

That might be the tip of the iceberg, or it might be as good we get in terms of impact. Teams may think they want more time to evaluate their squads, or they may think that it’s not worth making any big changes. That hasn’t stopped anyone from speculating about the big names potentially finding new homes — Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge and Chris Paul come to mind.

Then, there’s one that always comes up despite no rumors being tied to him: Gordon Hayward.

For context, let’s start with the Boston Celtics. The Celtics have played well enough to put their name among the very best in the Eastern Conference and arguably the entire league. Despite their impressive 31-15 record, what seems to be preventing them from entering the contender discussion is their lack of a difference-maker in the big department.

Al Horford didn’t provide a whole lot of flash, but his skill set checked a lot of boxes. His departure left a huge void for Boston to fill. With him and Aron Baynes gone, Daniel Theis, Enes Kanter, Robert Williams III and Grant Williams have handled the majority of the minutes at the five position. Together, the four of them have done a good enough job. Good enough in the sense that they haven’t brought Boston down nearly as much as originally feared. Still, if they had a bigger name manning the middle, maybe that would put the Celtics back in the discussion.

Now would be as good a time as any to get that particular big name at the center spot. Steven Adams and Andre Drummond have been rumored to be on the market since both of their teams are supposedly changing course.

This is where the prospect of trading Hayward comes in. With his $30+ million on the books, he makes enough money that he would match in a trade with any upper-tier big in the league. Also, because the Celtics have plenty both in the scoring department with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker — and the playmaking department with Walker and Marcus Smart — a case can be made that Hayward isn’t the top offensive option on the team he once was.

Another case can be made that Hayward, who has objectively played so much better this season than last, gives the Celtics another layer on both sides of the floor because of his abilities as a jack-of-all-trades wing. When fully healthy, the Celtics have had the privilege of having two of either him or Kemba or “the Jays” on the court at all times without missing a beat. Together, the four of them are plus-14.1 when they share the court.

The only problem is that those four have had trouble staying on the court together throughout most of the season. Believe it or not, that particular quartet has only played in 16 games together total.

If the Celtics were to trade Hayward for a high-profile big, they would, on paper, be taking away from a strength to aid a weakness. Teams have made these types of trades before where they trade a player believed to be superfluous for a player who was slated to help in a weaker area.

Has this strategy worked? Yes and no. History says it’s a mixed bag. This brings us to a tweet made by former Celtic Kendrick Perkins a little while ago.

This specific trade idea has been brought up what seems like an infinite amount of times, but coming from Perk this time is a little ironic. That’s because Perkins himself was involved in a similar trade nine years ago.

For those who don’t remember — and any Celtics fan who’s reading this certainly doesn’t — Boston traded Perkins among others to the Oklahoma City Thunder for primarily Jeff Green. Many were put off by this trade seeing how Perkins played a vital part in Boston winning its 17th championship, while Green helped Oklahoma City get its first playoff berth.

Putting all emotions aside, the rationale was pretty straightforward. The Celtics lost backup wing Marquis Daniels for the season with a bruised spinal cord and were one of the oldest teams in the league. They needed some depth on the wing and a little infusion of youth couldn’t have hurt. The Thunder had been bested by the then-defending reigning champion Los Angeles Lakers the previous postseason because LA took advantage of their lack of size. Getting someone who could stand up to them potentially made them the favorites in the West.

Both sides also viewed Perkins and Green as expendable. Boston had a strong enough frontcourt that they were one of the East’s best teams, even with Perkins out for most of the season. Oklahoma City had plenty of young talent in its arsenal that Green was a surplus — plus, they needed to see how good James Harden would be if his role expanded.

Both teams sacrificed a part of their strengths to help a weakness. We all know how this worked out. To make a long story short, it didn’t. Perkins did not fit the Thunder’s up-tempo style at all, and Green never really found a role for himself with the Celtics until it was too late. In this instance, the player acquired in hopes of aiding the weakness either didn’t really do that (Green) or even if he did, he hurt the team more than he helped overall (Perkins).

There have been other instances where making a deal like this worked for the best — at least for one side. A year after OKC and Boston agreed to their midseason swap, Golden State and the Milwaukee Bucks made some rather seismic roster changes midseason when the Warriors traded Monta Ellis to the Bucks for Andrew Bogut, among others.

This move also didn’t sit well with fans even if the thinking made sense. Golden State had one of the league’s most talented scoring duos between Ellis and a young Stephen Curry, but since the team’s defense was a complete joke — especially in the post — a rim protector was needed to change its fortunes. Milwaukee needed more scoring help seeing how Brandon Jennings couldn’t do everything himself, and Bogut was injury-prone.

In short, while Ellis didn’t really do much for the Bucks, Bogut was exactly what the Warriors needed. His high IQ both as a shot-blocker and as a passer gave Golden State the final touches to start what would turn into an era of dominance. Ellis may have been the more talented player at that point, but Bogut was the better piece to put next to Curry.

Another reason why both teams agreed to a swap? They both had blossoming players who had great potential ahead of them. For the Warriors, it was hot-shot rookie Klay Thompson, whose shooting and defense proved to be a better fit next to Curry. For the Bucks, it was second-year man Larry Sanders, whose athleticism and rim protection made Bogut redundant. Because they had their replacements lined up, both sides felt they could give up the players in the deal.

It may have only worked out for one side in the long run, but it still proves that making a move like this can work out as long as you prepare accordingly. It’s not a given, but the risk is worth taking.

Getting back to Hayward, the odds of Boston trading him period should seem low. If the Celtics traded a guy who:
– Left more money on the table to join them
– Has gone through hell and back with his leg injury
– Has a personal relationship with their head coach

It would not make them look good. The Celtics’ image took a substantial hit when they traded Isaiah Thomas for Kyrie Irving. Even if it was the right move, Thomas gave the Celtics everything he could while dealing with both an injured hip and the death of his sister. Trading him made the Celtics look cold and ruthless. That cold image would only be amped up if they did the same with Hayward.

Then again, maybe it wouldn’t matter to them if they believed a title was in their grasp should they make such a move. That was the thought process when they acquired Irving. Getting to that final stage requires making moves that aren’t comfortable to make. If taking away from your strength bolsters your team overall because it helps a weakness, you should do it. Especially if a title is within your grasp.

When it comes to topics like this, always think of what Thanos said during Avengers: Infinity War.

“The hardest choices require the strongest wills.”

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NBA

NBA Daily: They Guessed Wrong

Matt John reflects on some of the key decisions that were made last summer, and how their disappointing results hurt both team outlooks and players’ legacies.

Matt John

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It doesn’t sound possible, but did you know that the crazy NBA summer of 2019 was, in fact, over a year ago? Wildly, in any normal, non-pandemic season, it all would have been over three months ago and, usually, media days would be right around the corner, but not this time. The 2019-20 NBA season is slated to end sometime in early to mid-October, so the fact that the last NBA off-season was over a year ago hasn’t really dawned on anyone yet. Craziest of all, even though there will still be an offseason, there technically won’t be any summer.

Coronavirus has really messed up the NBA’s order. Of course, there are much worse horrors that COVID-19 has inflicted upon the world – but because of what it’s done to the NBA, let’s focus on that and go back to the summer of 2019. It felt like an eternity, but the Golden State Warriors’ three-year reign had finally reached its end. The Toronto Raptors’ victory over the tyranny that was the Hamptons Five – as battered as they were – made it feel like order had been restored to the NBA. There was more to it than that though.

Klay Thompson’s and Kevin Durant’s season-ending injuries, along with the latter skipping town to join Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn meant two things.

1. Golden State was down for the count
2. Brooklyn’s time wasn’t coming until next year.

A one-year window was open. Even if neither Golden State nor Brooklyn posed the same threat that the former did when it had Kevin Durant, those were two contenders out of commission. If there was a time to go all in, it was in 2019.

Milwaukee certainly seemed to go all in. For the most part.  Malcolm Brogdon’s departure seemed a little odd since he was arguably their best non-Giannis playmaker when they were in crunch time. Not to mention there was nothing really stopping the Bucks from keeping him except for money. Detractors will call out Milwaukee for electing to cheap out by not keeping Brogdon and hence, avoiding the luxury tax. However, there’s more to it than that.

Milwaukee thought it had enough with the core it had on its roster. Coming off the best season they had put up since the eighties, they believed the franchise built the right team to contend. There was an argument that keeping Brogdon may have been overkill with their guard depth – let’s not forget that Donte DiVincenzo did a solid job in Brogdon’s role as the backup facilitator. This would have been more defensible had it not been for Milwaukee picking the wrong guy to let go. That was the indefensible part- electing to keep Eric Bledsoe over Brogdon.

Bledsoe wasn’t necessarily a bad investment. No one’s complaining about an almost 15 point average on 47/34/79 splits or playing individual defense tight enough to get named on the All-Defensive second team. By all accounts, Bledsoe earns his keep. That is until the playoffs. Bledsoe’s postseason woes have been a weight ever since he first entered Milwaukee, and this postseason was more of the same.

Bledsoe’s numbers dwindled to just 11.7 points on 39/25/81 splits, and Milwaukee getting ousted in five games at the hands of Miami made his struggles stand out even more than it had ever been. Bledsoe may be the better athlete and the better defender, but Brogdon’s all-around offensive savvy and his only slight dropoff defensively from Brogdon would have made him a bit more reliable.

Milwaukee guessed wrong when they opted to extend Bledsoe before the postseason last year when they could have waited until that very time to evaluate who to keep around. Now they face a hell of a lot more questions than they did at the end of last season – questions that may have been avoided had they made the right choice.

Now they could have kept both of them, yes, but it’s not totally unreasonable to think that maybe their approach with the luxury tax would have worked and maybe they would still be in the postseason right now had they gone with the homegrown talent. And just maybe, there wouldn’t be nearly as much of this Greek Freak uncertainty.

The Houston Rockets can relate. They got bruised up by a team that everyone thought Houston had the edge on going into the series and then crushed by the Lakers. Now, Mike D’Antoni is gone. The full-time small ball experiment likely did not work out. Since the Rockets emptied most of their assets to bring in Russell Westbrook and Robert Covington, there may not be a route in which they can become better than they presently are.

The mistake wasn’t trading for Russell Westbrook. The mistake was trading Chris Paul.

To be fair, most everybody severely overestimated Chris Paul’s decline. He’s not among the best of the best anymore, but he’s still pretty darn close. He deserved his All-NBA second team selection as well as finishing No. 7 overall in MVP voting. OKC had no business being as good as they were this season, and Paul was the driving force as to why.

For all we know, the previously-assumed tension between Chris Paul and James Harden would have made its way onto the court no matter what. Even so, Houston’s biggest obstacle in the Bay Area had crumbled. If they had just stayed the course, maybe they’re still in the postseason too.

To their credit, none of this may have happened had it not been for the Kawhi Leonard decision. Had he chosen differently, the Thunder never blow it up, and Houston might have very well been the favorite in the Western Conference. Instead, the Rockets took a step back from being in the title discussion to dark horse. But at least they can take pride knowing that they weren’t expected to win it all – the Clippers can’t.

Seeing the Clippers fall well short expectations begs the question if they too got it wrong. The answer is, naturally: of course not. They may have paid a hefty price for Paul George, but the only way they were getting Kawhi Leonard – one of the best players of his generation – was if PG-13 came in the package. As lofty as it was, anyone would have done the same thing if they were in their shoes. They didn’t get it wrong. Kawhi did.

On paper, the Clippers had the most talented roster in the entire league. It seemed like they had every hole filled imaginable. Surrounding Leonard and George was three-point shooting, versatility, a productive second unit, an experienced coach – you name it. There was nothing stopping them from breaking the franchise’s long-lasting curse. Except themselves.

Something felt off about them. They alienated opponents. They alienated each other. At times, they played rather lackadaisically, like the title had already been signed, sealed, and delivered to them. The media all assumed they’d cut the malarkey and get their act together – but that moment never really came. They had their chances to put Denver away, but even if they had, after seeing their struggles to beat them – and to be fair Dallas too – would their day of destiny with the Lakers have really lived up to the hype?

Even if it was never in the cards, one can’t help but wonder what could have happened had Kawhi chosen to stay with the team he won his second title with.

Toronto was the most impressive team in this league this season. They still managed to stay at the top of the east in spite of losing an all-timer like Leonard. That team had every component of a winner except a superstar. They had the right culture for a championship team. Just not the right talent. The Clippers were the exact opposite. They had the right talent for a championship team but not the right culture. That’s why the Raptors walked away from the postseason feeling proud of themselves for playing to their full potential while the Clippers writhed in disappointment and angst over their future.

In the end, everyone mentioned here may ultimately blame what happened to their season on the extenuating circumstances from the pandemic. The Bucks’ chemistry never fully returned when the Bubble started. Contracting COVID and dealing with quad problems prevented Westbrook from reviving the MVP-type player he was before the hiatus. As troubling as the Clippers had played, the extra time they would have had to work things out in a normal season was taken away from them.

For all we know, next year will be a completely different story. The Rockets, Bucks, and Kawhi may ultimately have their faith rewarded for what they did in the summer of 2019 – but that will only be mere speculation until the trio can change the story.

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NBA

Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards

Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.

David Yapkowitz

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We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.

The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.

With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.

The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.

Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old

Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.

He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.

Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.

Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old

Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.

He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.

Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.

Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old

Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.

He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.

One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.

Honorable Mentions:
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old

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NBA

Looking Toward the Draft: Small Forwards

Basketball Insiders’ examination of the 2020 draft class continues with a look at the small forwards.

Drew Maresca

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It was announced on Wednesday that the NBA Draft would be delayed from Oct. 16 to Nov. 18. The rationale is that the extra month gives the league and its players association more time to negotiate changes to the CBA. It also grants teams additional time to procure information on prospects and allows the NBA to establish regional virtual combines. But nothing is set in stone.

Still, draft prep must continue. This year’s draft class has more question marks than usual – which was complicated by the cancellation of the NCAA tournament (along with the NIT and a number of conference tournaments). There are incredibly skilled offensive players with limited offensive upside and jaw-droppingly talented defenders with incomplete offensive packages. But if (recent) history serves as a guide, there will be a few guys who make an immediate impact – and some of them very well could be small forwards.

The small forward position is key for the modern NBA. Want proof? Survey the league and you’ll find that most – if not all – contenders have an elite small forward – Milwaukee, Los Angeles (both), Boston, Miami, Toronto.

But the list of can’t miss small forward prospects feels smaller than usual. Scanning the numerous legitimate mock drafts (including our own by Steve Kyler), it becomes apparent that we lack a consensus on which small forwards will be selected (and in what order) after the top 3 or 4. Can any of them grow into a star? Maybe. Maybe not. But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s identify what the top few bring to the table.

Deni Avdija, Israel – 19 years old

Avdija is a relatively well-rounded prospect who’s played professionally since he was 16. He boasts good height (6-foot-9) and uses it effectively to shoot over and pass around opposing defenses. Further, Avdija is an exceptional playmaker and he’s incredibly confident, enabling him to take chances many players would be apprehensive trying. Avdija is a high-IQ player. And what’s more, he’s a surprisingly strong defender. His height and above-average athleticism allow him to block shots, and he’s more physical than you’d expect him to be.

But there are drawbacks to Avdija, too. His main issue is around shooting. Avdija shot only 28% in the EuroLeague last season, and he shot only 60% from the free-throw line. Further, while he’s a decent athlete, he’ll struggle to secure a role in the NBA. He’s going to need to add speed to stay with modern wings, and he’ll also have to bulk up to bang with power forwards.

Still, Avdija’s upside is alluring. He’s only 19, and his smarts, confidence and grittiness should provide him cover for much of his rookie season. Avdija should be the first small forward off of the board.

Isaac Okoro, Auburn – 19 years old

Avdija might be the flashier name currently, but Okoro will give him a run for his money in terms of which small forward is first off the board. Okoro is built like a traditional NBA wing; he’s 6-foot-6 with good strength packed in his muscular frame (215 lbs). Okoro finishes well around the rim and he converts well through contact. He’s an exceptional athlete who excels catching the ball on the move. Like Avdija, Okoro has the poise and composure of a more experienced player. Also, like Avdija, Okoro looked the part of a high IQ player in his lone season at Auburn.

And while all that is great, the main allure of Okoro is his defense. He’s a fairly advanced defender given his age, and his athleticism and timing make him an effective weak side help defender.

While Okoro’s raw abilities are exquisite, his refined offensive skills leave something to be desired. Okoro shot 28 percent on three-point field goals and he struggled from the free-throw line (67.2 percent). His mid-range jump shot also needs work, and he struggles in isolation situations.

If Okoro can hone his offensive game, he could grow into an All-Star. He has the ability to guard multiple positions, and his strength and athleticism give him a leg up on most prospects. But even if he doesn’t become an All-Star, he possesses a fairly high floor given his defensive abilities — and the guy definitely fills the state sheet (12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, .9 steals and .9 blocks). He has lockdown defender potential and he’ll put his stamp on the game beginning on night one.

Devin Vassell, Florida State – 20 years old

Vassell played two seasons at Florida State, but he came into his own in his Sophomore season. He averaged 12.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. He shot a more than respectable 41.5% on three-point attempts, and he demonstrated a strong stroke from the free-throw line (73.8 percent) and on two-point field goal attempts (53.2).

Vassell is an extremely athletic leaper, who can rise up for a highlight dunk and sprint down the floor with ease. He has good body control and demonstrated a strong mid-range game, especially his step-back jump shot. But Vassell must generate more free throws through decisive moves to the hoop, which would be bolstered by a more muscular frame. Additionally, he must improve his ball-handling to get more from isolations.

Vassell will have an adjustment period in terms of scoring the ball at the next level. Fortunately, his defense and shooting should get him by. If he can bulk up and improve his handling, Vassell could grow into a serious player.

Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt – 20 years old

Nesmith probably has a lower floor than any of the other top small forward prospects given that he’ll be 21 by the draft. Still, he looked quite good in his Junior year, averaging 23 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game on a scorching 52.2 percent shooting from deep. Nesmith is an incredibly gifted shooter who has impressive range. His ability to catch-and-shoot and create space with fakes makes him a promising prospect – for the right team.

Nesmith is a high IQ player who uses his smarts on the defensive end. He’s also quite strong, can get buckets in the open floor and demonstrates above average ball-handling skills, as long as he’s not taking the ball to the hoop.

But there are inherent limitations in Nesmith’s game. He’s doesn’t create for his teammates too effectively and he turns the ball over more frequently than one would like with. Further, Nesmith is plagued by robotic movements that limit his athleticism. His ball-handling breaks down when taking the ball to the rack – something he’ll certainly have to work on in the NBA if he wants to be a versatile scoring threat against the bigger and stronger competition.

Still, Nesmith’s positives give him an excellent chance at being selected in the first round. His range alone will intrigue teams in need of a shooter.

Honorable Mentions:

Saddiq Bey, Villanova – 21 years old

Jaden McDaniels, Washington – 19 years old

Robert Woodard II, Mississippi State – 20 years old

With the uncertainty around small forward prospects, expect to see a revolving door of names enter the discussion after the first four wing prospects are off the board prior to Nov. 16 – assuming the draft is held then. But regardless of how you have them ranked, all of the aforementioned prospects have question marks. But all have had far more time to improve than they would have in years’ past. Let’s hope that shows come next season.

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