Betting On Yourself: As the clock ticks down to tomorrow’s October 31 midnight deadline for 2011 first round draft picks to agree to early extensions, a number of players are going to have to decide whether to accept guaranteed, life-long security in the form of a rookie scale contract extension or roll the dice on having a strong season and seeing what restricted free agency brings them.
There are a number of deals that look like they are going to get done.
Ricky Rubio and the Minnesota Timberwolves seem close on a multi-year deal some say could clock in around $52-$54 million.
Tristian Thompson and the Cleveland Cavaliers continue to talk about a new deal, there is talk that the Cavs are hovering around a $10 million per year deal. That one could get done.
The Chicago Bulls and Jimmy Butler have made progress, but the sense is that Butler may roll the dice on himself. The Bulls could up their offer and get it done at the deadline, but it seems Butler will take the risk.
The Orlando Magic and Tobias Harris exchanged numbers on a new deal, but there hasn’t been any real progress since. Orlando says all the right things about Harris’ future with the team, but it looks like he’s headed to free agency rather than take Orlando’s offer.
Reggie Jackson and the Oklahoma City Thunder have done something similar.
Why would guys pass on guaranteed money like this?
The biggest reason is that teams making offers are generally making them based on what similar players have already signed for. In some cases the numbers being offered are about right based on deals that got done. But rarely are teams trying to set a new ceiling and that’s something of the problem.
Kemba Walker and the Charlotte Hornets reached a deal on a four-year, $48 million deal this week. Why wouldn’t Jackson want something similar? The problem is Jackson wasn’t the player last season that Walker was, and that is where the disconnect is.
Teams tend to pay for what you are, while players, specifically their agents, are trying to get their clients paid for what they will be.
This brings the second part: Virtually every player that has accepted a non-max contract has outplayed the extension they accepted at the end of their rookie deals.
Golden State’s Stephen Curry is slated to earn $10.62 million this season and $11.37 million next season. He is woefully underpaid by NBA standards for the player he is today.
Toronto’s DeMar DeRozan signed a four-year, $38 million extension in 2012. He’ll earn $10.1 million this year and next. He was an All-Star a season ago and arguably one of the better players at his position in the league. At the time he signed that deal was considered a bad deal, today DeRozan is underpaid based on his peers.
While the appeal of the long-term security is hard to pass up, and for many of the guys still considering deals there is risk that passing on an extension could put them on the trade block, but the reality is that to truly get your market value as a player, you have to hit free agency.
A number of clever agents have obtained loss insurance for their guys. One player, who is pondering an extension deal, has an insurance policy that protects him against losing what’s been offered if he waits for free agency
If this particular player misses more than a handful of games this season, and does not get a new contract equal to what he’s currently being offered, his private insurance will make up the difference. So the risk of getting hurt and losing out is offset by insurance.
So for this particular player, why sign a deal that’s not exactly what you are looking for? Why not play out the season and gamble on yourself and change your value.
As the clock ticks closer to the deadline teams will have their own fears to embrace. Do you really want to be the team with the top restricted free agent on the market when as many as 15 teams could have $15 million or more to offer in free agency?
The Utah Jazz had to match a max offer sheet for Gordon Hayward. The Houston Rockets lost out on Chandler Parson because the Mavericks constructed a shorter, player-friendly deal that was unfavorable to Houston.
If you are a pending restricted free agent, do you want to allow another team to set the terms for you?
Deadlines create activity. Most teams will make one more pass at their guys hoping to strike an eleventh hour deal, so some of the guys will get done.
The guys that don’t reach a deal are not necessarily unwanted or not coveted, they are likely willing to gamble on themselves to do better in July, and that’s because normally early extensions offer security but rarely offer maximum earnings potential.
Expansion Still Unlikely: NBA Commissioner Adam Silver sat down with Bleacher Report’s Howard Beck in a wide ranging interview.
One of the topics broached was the idea of expanding the NBA. There has been a long running rumor that after the NBA closed its new broadcasting rights deal that the league would at least look at expansion, especially with situations like Seattle, Louisville, Kansas City, Las Vegas and San Diego showing so much promise and interest in the league.
The league has said numerous times that domestic expansion was not on the radar in the foreseeable future, and Commissioner Silver reiterated that stance to Beck, suggesting that relocation was still more likely than adding new teams.
“I think it is possible some teams can be in different markets, but expansion is not on our agenda right now,” said Silver.
“Thirty teams feels right, part of it is not just a financial issue, but a competitive issue.”
The NBA has learned a number of lessons over the years as it pertains to expansion and even relocation.
There was a time that expansion was viewed positively because it created more markets and more revenue streams, but the league learned quickly that more markets also equated to more mouths to feed, and with teams finally swinging to profitability, there does not seem to be much appetite for expanding.
While it does seem that the NBA could demand expansions fees north of $1 billion if it wanted to, the belief is over a ten or 15 year span a new teams would take out more than it put in, hence why expansion is undesirable.
There is also sense that after the NBA reaches a new labor deal with its players in 2017, that expansion might get looked at, but even then it’s viewed as a long shot.
The one thing that is very real for the NBA is relocation.
The Milwaukee Bucks franchise was given a year to get a new arena going or they’d have the option to move if new ownership wanted to. They are saying all the right things now, but that market is on the clock so to speak.
The Atlanta Hawks are currently on the market for sale, and have had long running attendance issues. The Hawks’ venue is also in need of an upgrade, so if new ownership can’t get things moving in the right direction, the Hawks could be a team that becomes a candidate to relocate inside the next ten years.
Commissioner Silver is hardly the final word in matters like this. The NBA Board of Governors could open the door for expansion at some point, but the stance from the league has been for some time that 30 domestic teams was where they wanted to be, meaning those other markets will have to wait until things go bad in an existing city.
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High-Performance Mindfulness: The Missing Link To DeMarcus Cousins’ Recovery
Jake Rauchbach discusses DeMarcus Cousins and one of the under-explored, but more critical aspects of the injury recovery process.
Last week, DeMarcus Cousins sustained another career-threatening injury, tearing his ACL during a pickup game in Las Vegas.
Cousins, who battled back from a ruptured Achilles this past season, is now in jeopardy of missing a big chunk of the upcoming season for his third time in as many years.
He is expected to miss major time for a third straight season due to a lower leg injury. Before tearing his left Achilles on Jan. 26 2018, Cousins’ durability was never really in question. Before the initial injury, the big-man missed over 20 games just once in a season.
Virtually every year, we see stories similar to Cousins. A player who, at one time in his career had little to no history of injury, gradually becomes engulfed in a seemingly chronic and potentially career-ending pattern for injury – Derrick Rose being a prime example of this.
Common thought for chronic injury issues points back to the physical or structural aspect. Some of the most common theories as to why players experience these setbacks are generally due to pre-disposition, overcompensation and an over-ambitious goal for recovery.
With any injury type, there are obvious physical factors at play. However, a vital and under-explored aspect of the recovery process could be blocking these players’ recovery process.
The Mind-Body Factor
The mind and body are inextricably linked. A person cannot entertain a thought or emotion and, without effect, a chain-reaction in the body occurring. The same can be said for athletes that re-experience past traumatic injury by way of memory.
As humans, we tend to push overwhelming memories, such as traumatic injury, to the far reaches of our subconscious mind. This can be a problem, as these unresolved thoughts, emotions, feelings and psycho-somatic pain can get lodged within a player’s muscle memory.
When this happens, severe compensation, fear of injury and guarding patterns can arise in the body, which can have the effect of weakening the point of injury. This consequently causes structural weakness in other parts of the body. Rose and Cousins could be prime examples of this.
Subconscious mental and emotional blocks such as these, if left unaddressed, can create a nasty psycho-somatic injury loop, consequentially making players susceptible to further injury. Leaving imbalances unresolved at the unconscious level can jeopardize the physical health and well-being of an athlete. Finding a way to break this loop is paramount.
Mental And Emotional Blocks
The psycho-somatic memory of rupturing an Achilles or tearing an ACL can easily stay locked up within the deep mind or muscle memory of a player for years until fully processed.
In Rose’s case, his first major injury and psycho-somatic impediment may have occurred when he tore his ACL during the 2012-2013 season. Dr. Michael Casale, speaking about Rose, said:
“His injury must have caused so much mental trauma. The neuroscience part of me comes out and starts to think about, as far as the brain rewiring, it must be so unbelievably impactful to have that one moment change the way you think about yourself and your environment.”
Considering his past injury history – and the fact that some like Dr. Casale within the medical community believe that Rose’s injury may have caused psychological damage – it is not a stretch to think there has been a very real psycho-somatic element at play.
In Cousins’ case, he has sustained two major leg injuries in a relatively short period. It is generally challenging for big men with severe lower leg injuries to return to the court better than when they left it. Cousins could have his work cut out for him.
If Cousins or Rose are still carrying the deep mental and emotional discord from their past injuries, the chronic injury patterns that they have already experienced could likely persist.
Directly addressing unresolved psycho-somatic barriers with leading-edge High-Performance Mindfulness systems could help players like Rose and Cousins break the habitual injury loop that they have experienced.
The Missing Link – Streamlining The Injury Recovery Process
So what might be the next correct step in streamlining recovery?
High-Performance Mindfulness – Energy Psychology Programs that zero in on removing the mental and emotional baggage from past injuries, exactly what Cousins and Rose could require.
High-Performance Mindfulness can now identify which unconscious mental blocks are holding a player back wherein the subconscious mind-body they are being held. Through a systematic approach for removing and neutralize these impediments, players have been shown to physically improve once the emotional discord of the past experiences has been neutralized.
Frequently, the option of last resort, techniques such as these often have the effect of improving range of motion, eliminating fears of re-injury and eliminating those nasty guarding patterns.
Moreover, employing tools that interface directly with the subconscious mind have been shown to restore confidence, trust and rhythm for a player in regards to his or her own body.
For players like Cousins and Rose, there may be nothing more vital at this stage in their careers.
Getting to the root of these chronic injury patterns may be the key for Cousins, Rose and players like them challenged with similar injury patterns for unlocking, healing and preventing future injury.
Addressing the deeply held negatively charged thoughts, images, emotions and somatic feelings could be the way for doing so – and could be a game-changer for players coming back from injury.
Could Team USA’s Success Create More Future NBA Partnerships?
Past U.S. National Teams have foreshadowed future player movement. What possibilities could come from the 2019 FIBA World Cup roster? Douglas Farmer writes.
Since 2008’s “Redeem Team,” two themes have applied to every iteration of the U.S. Men’s National Basketball Team.
They are stocked with the current cream of the crop, and they lay a groundwork for future partnerships or rumored partnerships.
Injuries, workload management and personal decisions have invalidated the first of those themes as the U.S. prepares for the FIBA World Cup in two weeks, but the bonds made in China could still influence the NBA in years to come, just as such friendships led to the 2010-14 Miami Heat, the 2016-19 Kevin Durant-included Golden State Warriors and the brand new Brooklyn Nets.
LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh were all a part of that 2008 Gold Medal team. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson first got to know Durant up close and personal while winning gold in Brazil. Kyrie Irving and Durant played together then as well, and that goes without mentioning DeAndre Jordan. Let’s not forget that Irving also played with Jimmy Butler and Anthony Davis in 2016, two others he has been linked with the last few seasons.
So what partnerships could come from the current team? Three possibilities stick out.
The 2022 Restricted Free Agents
Four members of Gregg Popovich’s U.S. roster will reach restricted free agency after the 2022 season. For Los Angeles Lakers forward Kyle Kuzma and San Antonio Spurs guard Derrick White, they may have the option to survey their options and force their current organizations’ respective hands, but Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum and Utah Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell will almost assuredly sign five-year deals where they are now.
That will set up Tatum and Mitchell – and perhaps Kuzma and/or White – to reach unrestricted free agency simultaneously in 2027. Is it absurd to look eight years ahead? Perhaps, but in the current climate of player empowerment, those timelines can become truncated in unexpected ways. For now, using the 2027 offseason simply creates a predictable point of reference.
Tatum will be entering his age-29 season and Mitchell his age-31 season. If either or both has not yet won a title — by 2027 or, as alluded to, when forcing a franchise’s decisions even earlier — the competitive clock will be ticking at a rapid pace.
To put it bluntly, the Tatum-Mitchell duo could fit very well. For that matter, there is no genuine overlap even when considering Kuzma and White.
Though his 2018-19 was a slight step backward in many respects, Tatum remains a solid shooter and one that should only improve. Perhaps he is not quite the 43.4 percent three-point shooter that he was as a rookie, but he is also better than last season’s 37.3 percent. As his body continues to mature, his rebounding rate should continue to rise, already up to 6.0 from 5.0 in just two years.
Mitchell, meanwhile, improved his shooting from deep to 36.2 percent from 34 percent in his first two seasons and raised his assist-to-turnover rate to 1.48 from 1.35. On the surface, those may seem like incremental betterings, but considering Mitchell’s usage rate also jumped to 31.7 from 29.2, their impacts were crucial pieces of Utah finishing fifth in the West.
A pick-and-roll between the two of them would put any defense in a compromising position. Either could drive to the rim, either could crash for a lob, either could pop out for a three. Neither lags off the dribble or in a catch-and-shoot situation. And each comports himself well defensively, a trait that will presumably only strengthen with age.
Tatum and Mitchell would make for a solid combination, a rapport to be looked for when the U.S. faces the Czech Republic on Sept. 1.
Of course, if either appears to be fitting with Kuzma or White better than expected, one or the other could eventually lean on his current franchise to tender a better offer than the Lakers or Spurs are likely to match.
2020 Role Players on the Market
On this U.S. roster, only Nuggets forward Mason Plumlee and Nets guard Joe Harris will be free agents next summer. Neither will command massive contracts, though both would be leaving teams with distinct championship aspirations if they shopped around. There are, however, two contingents of players headed to China with equal title hopes who could begin sales pitches.
Tatum is just one of four Celtics on the roster, making them the loudest group. They could see Plumlee and recognize size not much abundant on their team in Boston. With Kemba Walker, Gordon Hayward and Tatum, they have reasonable shooting, but finding a way to bang with the lengthy 76ers will undoubtedly be on Celtics president Danny Ainge’s to-do list.
Bucks guard Khris Middleton and big man Brook Lopez are the only other pair of NBA teammates representing the U.S., and in Harris they should see the ideal sharpshooter to stash around Giannis Antetokounmpo.
That version of player recruitment may not have the same headline value as the Gold Medal-winning efforts of the last decade, but that is appropriate for a roster devoid of MVP candidates. It could be the key to a title all the same.
Be it Harris to the Bucks, Plumlee to the Celtics or a Tatum-Mitchell partnership years from becoming a reality, such team-building could shape a postseason just as James-Wade-Bosh and Durant to the Warriors did, all spurred by time on a national team roster.
NBA Daily: Grading The Offseason – Toronto Raptors
Shane Rhodes examines the double-edged sword of the Toronto Raptors’ championship season and the loss of a franchise superstar.
The NBA is a fickle beast, success a fleeting one.
And, right now, no one may know that better than the Toronto Raptors.
After the first title in their team’s history, the Raptors are left without Kawhi Leonard, the former Spur, Raptor and now Clipper that carried the franchise to its greatest heights. Toronto and Masai Ujiri’s gamble from a year ago was worth it – with Leonard in place of DeMar DeRozan, the Raptors reached the pinnacle of the basketball world – but it has left the franchise ill-equipped to retain their heightened status.
Of course, and although he was a significant part of it, there was more to their team than Leonard. That being said, success could stay in the cards for the Raptors, if not to a lesser extent, next season.
But the shoes Leonard vacated were quite large. Ujiri and Co. did what they could to fill them, but it can be hard, nigh impossible, to replace a superstar. Did they do enough to keep the team at the top of the Eastern Conference or, at the very least, earn a passing grade?
The Raptors season was an interesting one.
After the DeRozan-Leonard blockbuster rocked the whole of the NBA, Toronto was projected to be one of the best in the Association. It didn’t quite go as planned, but the Raptors indeed found themselves near the top of the NBA ladder, second only to the Milwaukee Bucks (60-22) in terms of their record (58-24).
Toronto was mocked early on for their “load management” approach, but it’s hard to argue with the results: Leonard looked like himself rather than the hobbled doppelganger we saw in his last season with San Antonio.
Once again at the peak of his powers, Leonard elevated the play of everyone around him and made the Raptors true title contenders. When the postseason came around, Toronto – after a brief slip against the Orlando Magic – rolled through the first round.
In the second, they clashed in a back-and-forth seven-game series with the Philadelphia 76ers, which ended with a signature moment from Leonard.
From there, they went toe-to-toe with eventual Most Valuable Player Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Raptors didn’t flinch.
And, finally, they were face to face with the beast that has stalked the collective nightmares of the NBA over the last five seasons: the Golden State Warriors.
The Raptors were built for this moment: to take on (and topple) a giant. In trading DeRozan, the team had stripped themselves of what their franchise was – its former face. It was cold, but it was also calculated and methodical. Everything had led up to this moment for Toronto, and there was nothing that they were going to let stop them.
And nothing did.
Toronto was a team of destiny. There was an air about them, a sense of magic and an essence that can’t be coached from the whiteboard or broken down in the film room. They took the Warriors to their limit and beat them. And, injuries aside, nothing can take that away from the Raptors franchise, their fans and the city of Toronto.
Unfortunately, this is Basketball Insiders’ “Grading the Offseason” series and, while what the Raptors achieved during the regular and postseason is great, it doesn’t factor into what they have done since they brought the Larry O’Brien trophy to Toronto.
The Raptors had hoped a title could lure Leonard back to the frozen North. In the end, not even that was enough to keep Leonard from Los Angeles but, if given the choice, Toronto would almost certainly trade for him again – the proverbial “window” can close so quickly and the team had to seize their opportunity while there still was one.
6-foot-7 superstar forwards don’t grow on trees, however. Leonard’s departure left a superstar-sized hole on the roster and he wouldn’t be easily replaced.
Toronto went into the 2019 NBA Draft with just a second-round pick, its first owed to San Antonio as part of the deal for Leonard. With that, the team took Dewan Hernandez, a forward out of the University of Miami.
They retained Patrick McCaw, a wing, signed Terence Davis, Stanley Johnson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Devin Robinson, all forwards.
Sensing a theme?
The Raptors, rather than trying to find one player, opted to replace Leonard with a committee. None of those players inspire much confidence, but bringing in a versatile group like that is at least a start.
From there, Toronto filled out the rest of the roster: with Danny Green, another integral piece, gone to the Los Angeles Lakers, the Raptors added Cameron Payne and Matt Thomas to serve as depth behind Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Norman Powell.
Short of something completely out-of-the-blue, ala the Leonard-DeRozan swap this time last year, there is little else the Raptors could do to improve their next-season outlook. After the flurry that was the start of free agency, there just isn’t much impact talent left out there.
On a lighter note, the Raptors didn’t lose much of anything outside of Leonard and Green that wasn’t addressed in those signings. Jeremy Lin, Jordan Loyd, Jodie Meeks and Eric Moreland were the other Raptors that walked into free agency.
Those players haven’t exactly knocked down the doors anywhere else. The Raptors, at the very least, should get similar production from their new guys.
PLAYERS IN: Terence Davis, Dewan Hernandez, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Stanley Johnson, Cameron Payne, Matt Thomas, Devin Robinson (Exhibit 10), Sagaba Konate (Exhibit 10), Oshae Brissett (Exhibit 10)
PLAYERS OUT: Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Jeremy Lin, Jordan Loyd, Jodie Meeks, Eric Moreland
Short of retaining Leonard, it was almost guaranteed to be a “bad” offseason for the Raptors, and their grade has reflected that.
Their roster is talented, but Toronto is built to house a superstar, not compete without one. Hollis-Jefferson, Johnson, Payne and the others could have proven perfect additions to a title contender but, to the Raptors, they serve as no more than mediocre depth, either journeymen or hopeful reclamation projects.
In an extremely top-heavy East, Toronto should have no problem floating somewhere in the middle-of-the-pack (if not near the top of the conference). But that “good-not-great” gray-area isn’t the goal for any squad, certainly not the defending champions.
Now, it is the NBA, and anything can happen in this league. Should another disgruntled opportunity ala Leonard present itself, and should the Raptors jump on it, that could all change.
But right now, the odds of that happening seem slim.
In Leonard’s departure, Toronto was dealt an unwinnable hand. Unfortunately, there is no sympathy in grading.
OFFSEASON GRADE: D