The Free Agency Riddle
There’s almost no question that July 1 in the NBA this summer is going to be manic and chaotic. As things stand today, there looks to be more than $1.09 billion in money available under the salary cap. That’s an important distinction because NBA teams need to spend at least 90 percent of the salary cap. While there is not a punitive penalty for teams that do not spend, there are some mechanisms in place that get sticky for teams that do not meet the minimum salary floor, especially with the NBA projected to fall more than $375 million short as a league in what they are required to pay the players in salary and benefits as part of the contracted revenue share.
The calculus the NBA and the players agreed on in the Collective Bargaining Agreement assumes most teams will be over the salary cap and likely under the luxury tax; however with so many teams falling way below the cap this summer, very few teams will get meaningfully over the cap, and that’s going to create a huge short-fall that will get paid to the players in a lump sum check, and that money will come from the teams that do not spend – further motivating teams to spend the windfall in cap space they are projected to have.
As things stand today, more than 26 teams will have ample cap space, meaning the ability to get to at least one maximum salary slot. There are a handful of teams that can get to two maximum salary slots, which equates to more than $45 million in usable cap space per team.
Current NBA projections put the 2016-17 salary cap in the $92 million range; however, that number does not get locked in until the final accounting for the season is done and certified by both the NBA and the Players Association.
Assuming the cap stays at $92 million, which most league insiders expect may be slightly higher, the maximum salary tiers for players projects to be something like this: $21.6 million for players with up to six years of NBA experience, $25.9 million for those with seven to nine years of NBA experience, and $30.2 million with 10 or more years in the league.
The other notable is that players with some level of Bird Rights can receive 7.5 percent annual increases if they stay with their respective home teams. That number drops to 4.5 percent if they leave for another market.
It’s also important to point out that while the NBA salary cap projects to go up more than 28 percent this summer, it also projects to go up another 20-plus percent next summer.
That’s meaningful for the handful of players finishing their ninth NBA season like Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant, Atlanta’s Al Horford and Memphis’ Mike Conley, as all three could earn substantially more money as a 10-year player next summer.
As things stand today, there are more than 270 players that could be in the 2016-17 NBA Free agent pool depending on how many options are picked up or declined. Of those players, there are about 40 that most in the NBA would consider significant, meaning the land grab for talent on July 1 could be incredibly hard to predict given how many teams have money and how quickly teams may need to act to ensure they come out of all of this with players.
With all of that in mind, let’s look at what we know about the top of the list:
The biggest free agent fish in the pond is Thunder star Kevin Durant. While there have been a lot of reports that say Durant would do this and Durant would do that, sources close to the process say that Durant has been very aggressive with his inner circle that he was not going to talk about free agency with any of them until after the Thunder season ended. This is meaningful because reports prior to the end of the Thunder season are not based on anything Durant has said, and he’s been clear that his camp was not talking.
The prevailing belief around the Thunder is that Durant is more inclined to stay in OKC for one more season than seriously explore life on another team. That said, league sources say the Warriors and the Spurs are planning big pitches to Durant if he’ll take meetings – as most expect he will.
Durant is one of those players that is financially motivated to take a shorter-term deal, not only because of the ballooning cap, but because he’ll cross over to the 10-year experience tier next summer.
The final wrinkle in the Durant puzzle is his connection to teammate Russell Westbrook. While some see their on-court bickering and try to make that a negative, the connection Durant and Westbrook share is real and its meaningful. The belief in NBA circles is that Durant will sign a one-and-one deal with the Thunder and give the situation one more year. Durant will get the benefit of the new salary jump this year and have the ability to re-up next summer at an even higher rate. Staying for one more year also allows Durant to see what Westbrook and teammate Serge Ibaka do with their free agency in 2017. It also allows Durant the chance to see the Thunder through to the potential end without regrets.
While it’s possible a pitch from the Warriors or the Spurs sways Durant away, the belief around the league is that Durant is not going anywhere this summer. That could very well change next summer.
The narrative all season around Conley was that he was staying in Memphis. However, sources close to Conley’s camp said recently that Conley is more open to new situations than anyone in Memphis would be comfortable with. The narrative from those sources is that Conley is concerned that the Grizzlies cannot add enough to the roster to get them seriously into championship status and if that does not happen, he’s not willing to tie his career to Memphis in the long-term.
Like Durant, Conley is financially motivated to give Memphis one more year – as he too becomes a 10-year player in 2017. Doing a shorter term deal would allow Conley to let the Grizzlies add more to the roster, without the long-term commitment.
The fact that Conley likely meets with other teams is going to create some buzz, especially with teams like the Knicks and the Rockets said to covet Conley significantly.
The dark horse in the Conley race is the Spurs. More than a few league insiders have pegged the Spurs as having more than a passing interest in Conley as a free agent and, much like with Durant, they are prepared to break apart some of their core to lock in another high level player.
The smart money says Conley is back in Memphis, however it’s far from the lock that it seemed four months ago when the idea of Conley leaving was laughable within his circle.
The HEAT have a big problem when it comes to retaining Whiteside. Because the HEAT signed Whiteside to a two-year deal, they do not have full-Bird rights on Whiteside this summer and will have to fit any deal worth more than 175 percent of his previous salary under the salary cap. This gets compounded because HEAT star Dwyane Wade carries a $30 million cap hold that basically erases any salary cap space the HEAT would have, meaning the HEAT have to sign Wade’s deal first and fit Whiteside into whatever is left. As things stand today, the HEAT could get to about $40 million in cap space, but that figure has to account for Wade’s new deal and whatever is paid to Whiteside. While Whiteside was drafted in 2010, he only has two full years of NBA experiences, which sets his maximum possible starting salary at $21.6 million. The HEAT can make that work with a little help from Wade.
The problem for Miami is that while they can keep Wade and Whiteside, they’d lose the ability to keep almost anyone else and would have no means to add to the team beyond the room exception and minimum deals.
The wrinkle for Miami is that Whiteside has not earned serious money in the NBA yet and will turn 27 next Monday, so this is his chance to lock in his future and those around him say he’s not open to much flexibility.
The narrative around Whiteside has been that he’d like to stay in Miami. He’s comfortable there, has had success there and they can pay him the most money of any team in the league. Assuming that’s the offer from the HEAT, there is a better than average chance he signs a new deal. If the HEAT try to play games, sources close to the situation say Whiteside will go shopping.
There is a sense that Whiteside is one of the top names on the Lakers’ wish list of free agents, with the Celtics also interested. The problem with trying to peg either as having some edge over the other neglects that Whiteside could be the most obtainable free agent in the class and likely gets a lot of interest beyond those two suitors.
League sources said this weekend that Whiteside is getting a full max deal – the question is will it be from the HEAT or someone else?
There is no pending free agent that’s more polarizing right now than Barnes. So despite how you may feel personally about Barnes, there’s a reality to his situation: Barnes is getting a max offer. The question is will the Warriors match it?
Sources close to the Warriors say they are absolutely planning to return the entire team and if that means matching a crazy offer sheet, the Warriors a prepared to do that.
The wrinkle for the Warriors is Kevin Durant. If Durant says “yes” to a free agent deal, all bets are off and much of this Warriors team will get scrapped including Barnes. If Durant says “no thank you,” the band stays together.
As silly as that may seem, there is a unique window the Warriors have that few teams experience. Without a roster break-up for Durant, the Warriors will not be a salary cap team this summer, meaning the money they would pay to Barnes is only available to Barnes. It’s not dollars they could spend on any other player and given the ballooning cap, it would not impair the Warriors in anyway going forward to pay Barnes.
Matching an offer sheet includes getting the lower annual raises and the shorter-term deal, both of which are meaningful to the Warriors.
It’s possible a team like the Lakers or the Magic construct an unfavorable contract structure to try and steal Barnes away, but the reality is a shorter deal like the two-plus-one structure that Chandler Parsons signed with Dallas wouldn’t be nearly as bad for the Warriors as it was for the luxury tax skirting Rockets a few seasons ago.
The smart money says Barnes is back in Oakland next season, even at max money, mainly because the Warriors can pay that without consequence to anything they are planning. The only wrinkle is the Warriors’ pursuit of Durant. If that pitch gets life, there may be a window for someone else. But the truth of the matter is, that’s not very likely.
Like Barnes, opinions on the contract value for Batum vary among fans; however, in NBA circles, there is little doubt Batum is going to get a max deal and it sounds more likely than not that it will be with the Charlotte Hornets.
There are a few teams that have planted seeds with Batum – the Knicks would do a deal in a heartbeat but can’t get to the $25.9 million in space they would need to offer a max deal to Batum without dumping off salary cap cash.
The Raptors are said to have serious eyes for Batum, but like the Knicks, they can’t get to $25.9 million in cap space without making two significant cap dump trades.
If things don’t go fluidly with the Hornets, there is always a chance that Batum moves on but the narrative around him is that he’s really happy in Charlotte and feels like head coach Steve Clifford is the right coach for him. Assuming the team ponies up the dollars, which they absolutely can do without much issue, it seems more likely than not that Batum is staying where he is.
This may be the easiest free agent synopsis to write. Say it with me: DeRozan is re-signing in Toronto.
Both sides want to do a new deal. The Raptors are prepared to pay DeRozan and unless something goes terribly wrong over the next four weeks, he’ll be back with the Raptors on a new max deal.
There were reports suggesting DeRozan would look at other situations, but sources close to his camp say it’s going to be a short process for DeMar.
Drummond, Beal and Clarkson
There are three notable soon-to-be restricted free agents and while they have the option of seeking offer sheets, it’s unlikely that any of them would.
Detroit’s Andre Drummond passed on a contract extension last summer mainly to help the Pistons create cap space this summer. Had Drummond done a deal in October, his new contract would hit the Pistons’ cap on the first day of free agency. By opting to wait, Drummond’s $8.180 million cap hold gives the Pistons some cap space to play with in July and then exceed the cap to re-sign him to his max deal. This one is basically cap management and it’s unlikely Drummond even takes a meeting with another team.
Washington’s Brad Beal is in a similar situation. While his $14.236 million hold is higher than Drummond’s, it’s still less than the $21.5 million max salary Beal will receive after the Wizards finish their free agent shopping. This one is also mostly cap management. There is no sense that the Wizards are going to play games with Beal; they simply needed to wait to maximize their salary cap space.
Lastly is the Lakers’ soon-to-be free agent Jordan Clarkson. Unlike Drummond and Beal, Clarkson is a little harder to poach because of his status as a Gilbert Arenas rule player. Sometime ago, a rule was put in place in the Collective Bargaining Agreement for second-round picks like Clarkson that limit what another team can offer in salary. The Lakers and Clarkson have had talks on a new deal and it seems more likely than not that the Lakers are going to pay Clarkson quickly and settle the situation.
It’s possible Clarkson’s camp seeks an offer sheet, simply to set more favorable terms, but the odds of Clarkson being anywhere but the Lakers next year are extremely small.
Over the next few weeks, we will try to spend more time on the pending free agent market, but as a handful of agents pointed out during Pro Days this past weekend, this will not be a normal free agency where there is a lot of early information on what players and NBA teams are doing. There will be something of a Wild West mindset and a lot of teams are keeping their wish list close to the vest to try and keep something of an advantage.
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NBA Daily: Why Teams Should Think Twice Before Tanking
Making up for the loss of a superstar is not a cut and dry, writes Spencer Davies.
Making up for the loss of a superstar is not a cut and dry affair.
If it happens, ownership and management have to choose between two options.
1) Attempt to stay competitive
2) Blow everything up and go for a high draft pick
The second choice seems to be the favorite path for executives to take as of late. After all, just look at the job the Philadelphia 76ers have done with perfecting the art of the aptly named process, “tanking.”
Former Sixers general manager Sam Hinkie’s three ultra-quotable words have turned NBA fans on to see the bigger picture. Who cares if a team has to suffer through multiple seasons of losing? If it takes a couple of years, so be it. In the end, we’ll reset with younger talent to build around. Trust The Process.
Philadelphia lost a lot of games between the 2013 and 2017 seasons. It was flat out brutal to watch. With that said, it did give the organization the opportunity to draft the likes of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons and acquire a young international talent like Dario Saric.
They were extremely patient throughout this whole operation. Brett Brown remained the head coach through thick and thin. Players swore on buying into what was being preached.
Last season was a breakthrough for the Sixers. They won 52 games and made the playoffs for the first time since the 2011-12 campaign. Two of the guys they drafted turned into recognizable names with their play and have sky-high potential to break through in this upcoming season.
But is this really what it takes to achieve relevancy and perpetual competition in the NBA now? Do you really have to wipe the slate clean entirely and put out an unacceptable product year-in and year-out for half a decade so that there’s a possibility of one day becoming a winning franchise?
It’s obvious that Philadelphia did its homework, but who’s to say that other front offices can function like that? The Sacramento Kings have been in the doldrums for 12 years. The Orlando Magic have missed the playoffs for six straight seasons and the New York Knicks haven’t made an appearance in five.
What it comes down to is hitting on draft picks, plain and simple. You don’t hear often about the missteps of the process. Nerlens Noel was supposed to be a key piece of the Sixers core, as was Jahlil Okafor. Both of those players were top six selections in their respective drafts.
In order to acquire Noel (along with New Orleans’ 2014 first-round pick), Philadelphia sent Jrue Holiday, Pierre Jackson and the 42nd overall pick in the 2013 NBA Draft to the newly branded New Orleans Pelicans.
In hindsight, this was an awful move—no bones about it. Holiday had been coming off an All-Star season. He stood a head above the rest on a roster mixed with veterans and middle-of-their-career players. Most impressive of all, it was only his third year in the league.
The Sixers picked a gamble that did not return the results they were hoping for. Michael Carter-Williams won Rookie of the Year and Noel had his moments, but there’s no way it was worth losing a player the caliber of Holiday. But they had to abide by the process by any means necessary, right?
Philadelphia hasn’t won a championship, yet they’re heading in the right direction. They were able to overcome those bumps in the road. The three teams in Sacramento, Orlando and New York to this point have not.
Tanking may not be the wrong answer. It’s not always the right one, though. It all depends on timing. Take a different approach of re-tooling in lieu of rebuilding.
A prime example of this viewpoint is the Utah Jazz last season. After Gordon Hayward signed with the Boston Celtics, many pundits stuck a dead duck label on the Utah Jazz. Those people said that in spite of the fact that the organization was on the rise with a brilliant head coach and an up-and-coming center bordering on best defensive player in the league status.
General manager Dennis Lindsey made a few moves here or there, but did not even think about giving up on the overall progress the Jazz had attained. He kept Quin Snyder and Rudy Gobert, drafted Donovan Mitchell and began a new chapter in the same book instead of writing a different novel.
Utah opened a ton of eyes last season, not only making the playoffs—competing until the very end. And even that was fluky when injuries came into the picture.
They never had to go into the gutter. In the four straight years the Jazz missed the playoffs, it wasn’t because of a set strategy to take a nosedive. They had the wrong coach the first two and were learning how to play winning basketball under the right leader the next two.
It seems as if the Cleveland Cavaliers are taking that route instead of the usual cry to “blow it up.” This isn’t comparing the impact of losing Hayward to LeBron James. That would be irresponsible. But they’ve clearly formed a strategy for all of this and were much more prepared the second time around.
Their true plans were revealed on July 24 when Kevin Love signed a four-year, $120 million extension to stick around with the wine and gold. Confusion surfaced all around. Nearly everybody in the NBA world expected general manager Koby Altman to trade him and stock up on future assets. After all, the Cavaliers’ first-round draft pick next season only conveys if they finish as a bottom 10 team in the league. If they do not, the selection goes to the Atlanta Hawks.
While that’s a true statement, nothing is guaranteed. Anything that happens in a season can be unpredictable. Anything that goes on in a draft is unpredictable.
In one timeline, Cleveland could be as bad of a team as some are predicting with Love. In another, they could make the playoffs and shock their doubters.
We don’t know what Collin Sexton will be in this league yet. We do know that experience is irreplaceable. Why not surround the young man with talent for him to breed confidence in himself and others? It’s better than losing a ton of games because the front office is waiting for the next guy to pair him with, right?
The Cavaliers are keeping their head coach. They’re acquiring players aching for an opportunity. They’re altering their direction, but keeping the same focus.
With LeBron James, Cleveland made four straight NBA Finals. In doing so, they’ve set a standard for the organization. Even with The King going west, why would it make any sense to change that message?
Considering the talent this league already has and the “super teams” that are being built among them, there is a difference between a ball club that wins 20 games and one that wins 35. They both miss out on the postseason and have a lottery pick, however, Team A silently creates losing habits while Team B tries to instill a culture of winning.
There is no perfect method for filling a void left by losing a superstar player. Nobody is a psychic.
Maybe it’s naïve to criticize “The Process” for not wanting to be in NBA purgatory—usually somewhere stuck between a seven seed in the playoffs and the 10th team in the conference standings—but tanking is a tricky game. Precision is necessary to pull it off. If it isn’t there, you’ll be in a world of hurt.
At least when you’re in NBA purgatory, you can add to what you have or try a different coach. Championship or bust is a dangerous mentality in the current landscape of sports.
Of course, that’s always the goal, but very few understand what it takes to get to that point. It all starts with a winning attitude, a quality of most teams that have tanked do not possess.
NBA Daily: The Summer’s Most Impactful Coaching Hires
There have been a lot of coaching swaps this offseason, but there are only a select few that should impact what happens next year.
Building a successful team is like cooking a meal. The players serve as the ingredients, while the coach serves as the cook who stirs the ingredients. A championship team requires the right ingredients just as much as it requires an adept cook.
Take the Warriors for example. Mark Jackson played an important role in putting Golden State back on the map in 2013. However, after it was clear that he wasn’t capable of pushing them much further the following year, they replaced him with Steve Kerr.
That made all the difference. The Dubs went from pseudo-contender to legitimate contender, thanks to their new coach revolutionizing the team’s offense. The team went from the league’s 12th-ranked offense in the league the previous season (107.5 points per 100 possessions) to its second (111.6). Stephen Curry’s evolution into a basketball supernova led the way of course, but it was Kerr’s revisions to the team that pushed them to another level.
It all started with how he handled his rotation. Making Draymond Green a full-time starter while also transitioning Andre Iguodala into the sixth man made the Dubs all the more lethal as a team. The final touch was forming the “Death Lineup”, which consisted of Curry, Green, Iguodala, Klay Thompson, and Harrison Barnes, that made Golden State nearly impossible to stop.
Golden State had a roster built for a title. All they needed was a coach who could get them the best results. Kerr was the man for the job.
That goes to show how vital a coach is to a franchise that has high aspirations.
Because of success stories like Golden State, we saw quite a few coaching changes this summer from teams hoping to have a Hollywood ending much like the Warriors.
Milwaukee Bucks – Mike Budenholzer
Poor Coach Bud. It’s not his fault that the Hawks team that he guided to 60 wins in 2015 slowly disintegrated over the last three years. Luckily he got out of there to avoid having to take on a rebuild. So now, he gets a fresh start in Wisconsin.
Budenholzer’s stock has gone down considerably since winning the Coach of the Year three years ago. That being said, he’s shown that when he has lemons, he can make lemonade. Now that he is running the show in Milwaukee, he is coaching one of the more unique situations in the league. Coach Bud now has a superstar at his arsenal in Giannis Antetokounmpo, which is something he never had in Atlanta.
It’s true that Milwaukee has been one of the league’s frequent underachievers since they kicked the tires of the Greek Freek era, but their talent cannot be understated. Remember that Coach Bud once made the likes of Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver All-Stars, statuses that they’ve never come close to regaining since. If he can do that with guys like Teague and Korver, imagine what he can do with Giannis and Co.
Milwaukee has also done a solid job building a team that fits Budenholzer’s emphasis on floor stretching. Adding Brook Lopez and bringing back Ersan Ilyasova should give a team that ranked 21st in three-point percentage more spacing. That’s quite impressive since Milwaukee had the ninth-best offensive rating in the league (109.8).
Milwaukee’s been trying to find their big break for a while now. They may have found theirs in Coach Bud.
Detroit Pistons – Dwane Casey
Nobody had a harder spring than Casey. Usually, winning Coach of the Year would be a moment worth treasuring, but in Casey’s case, it was far from it. Leading up to getting the award, Casey and the Raptors were swept by the Cavs for the second consecutive time, then he got fired shortly afterward. Casey getting Coach of the Year this season was pretty much like Dirk Nowitzki getting the MVP in 2007 after getting upset by the Warriors in the first round.
Thankfully, Casey’s illustrious resume was good enough for him to land on his feet just about anywhere. That anywhere happens to be Motown, where he’s replacing Stan Van Gundy as head coach. Detroit also has not had the most success since they’ve turned to Andre Drummond. That could be attributed to the unfortunate injuries that they’ve had to deal with in the last two years.
Despite having the persistent monkey on his back come playoff time, Casey has improved his craft in response to his failures. The Raptors saw improvement every year when Casey ran the show, and now Casey has the chance to show he can do the same in Detroit.
It will be an interesting transition going from the Raptors to the Pistons. Though not as talented as Toronto’s, Detroit’s strength should primarily come from their frontcourt. Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond should be one of the league’s best frontcourt pairings on paper. Casey has a reputation for making things work, so now that they will have a full season together, they may shine more than they did last season.
One particular question that should be answered is if Toronto’s problem was Casey or his roster. That may be answered by how Detroit does this season. Oh hey, speaking of Toronto…
Toronto Raptors – Nick Nurse
There seems to be a fair amount of optimism surrounding Nurse. Supposedly, he was the reason why the Raptors’ offense improved so much last season. Casey executed it to perfection, but Nurse was the one who designed it. Now, he’s at the forefront on a team that is desperate for success now more than ever.
This is Nurse’s first gig as a head coach, and the pressure is going to be on. It’s not just that Toronto’s been trying to get past its playoff demons. Now that they have Kawhi Leonard, they have to do everything in their power to keep him around — tall order given he seems hellbent on going to L.A.
Still, Leonard is an upgrade over DeMar DeRozan. Acquiring him, along with promoting Nurse, shows that the Raptors aren’t playing around. Being the head coach for one of the league’s powerhouses is a big break for Nurse. This may be his only to chance to prove he deserves a spot in this league.
James Borrego – Charlotte Hornets
Another Popovich protegee moving up through the ranks! Borrego has had some head coaching experience, though it was with the Orlando Magic, who were not going anywhere, three years ago. Now he’s going to Charlotte, a team that’s in a pretty tough situation right now.
Right now, Charlotte is hard-capped on a roster that does not have much room for improvement. The team has not made the playoffs in two years, and it’s hard to imagine how they improve from where they currently are. However, that might be why they hired Borrego.
Instead of going for a known name like Stan Van Gundy or Jeff Hornacek, they went with a guy who has learned under the NBA’s best coach for several years. Coach Bud became a great coach after learning from Pop, so perhaps Borrego may follow in his footsteps. This is a pivotal year for Charlotte since Kemba Walker’s bargain contract is expiring. If Borrego can help Charlotte return to the playoffs, then that could do wonders for them.
Note that David Fizdale, Lloyd Pierce, and Igor Kokoskov weren’t named. It isn’t fair to include them because the teams they are running are currently in the rebuilding phase with little expectation. They could be very impactful hires down the line. Just don’t expect a lot from them right away.
Same goes for J.B. Bickerstaff, but that’s because he already was the Grizzlies’ head coach. Now he’s full-time instead of interim. Call it cheating if you want to.
As for those who have been named, these hires should have a significant impact on what happens in the Eastern Conference playoff race this season. One of these hires could very well put their team in the finals, while another could put them in the NBA lottery.
NBA Daily: Five Second-Rounders Looking For Rookie Season Role
Although far from guaranteed, there are five recent second-rounders who could work themselves into important roles in 2018-19.
After months of speculation, rumors and workouts, the NBA Draft and their respective summer leagues are finally well in the rearview mirror. With training camps up next, franchises can begin to flesh out their rotations and decide the early season fates of their newly-arrived rookies — even if their selection didn’t come with as much fanfare or hype.
And although draft day studs like Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III are nearly guaranteed to contribute immediately, much of the class’ future is still up for grabs — a statement particularly true for those that followed the first round. Whether it was a strong summer league showing or a picture-perfect landing spot, here are the five second round draftees poised to leave a mark in 2018-19.
Kostas Antetokounmpo, Dallas Mavericks
2017-18: 5.2 points, 2.9 rebounds on 57.4 percent shooting
Much as been made of the youngest Antetokounmpo’s controversial decision to come out this spring, but his faith was rewarded by Dallas with the draft’s final selection. Back in June, our Spencer Davies dove into Antetokounmpo’s time at Dayton and it’s not difficult to see why the Mavericks took a swing on the raw 6-foot-11 prospect. Over four games in Las Vegas, Antetokounmpo averaged five points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.3 blocks per game on 58 percent from the floor — which, of course, is not eye-popping but could foreshadow a role moving forward.
Between Dirk Nowitzki, Dennis Smith Jr., Harrison Barnes, DeAndre Jordan and the ever-talented Luka Dončić, Antetokounmpo will not be called upon to carry the scoring load at any point. On a two-way deal, the Mavericks have the luxury to develop the Greek-born stopper in the G-League until he’s ready to make a difference — but for a defensive-minded Rick Carlisle, that day could come sooner rather than later. With Dwight Powell and Ray Spalding fighting for minutes at power forward, Antetokounmpo could be an option at the three, where Barnes has just Dorian Finney-Smith behind him.
For a franchise that ranked 18th in DEF RTG (107.4) last season and will strive for their first postseason berth since 2016, giving spot defensive specialist minutes to Antetokounmpo seems like a win-win partnership.
De’Anthony Melton, Houston Rockets
2016-17: 8.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.9 steals on 43.7 percent shooting
After missing an entire season due to an improper benefits scandal at USC, Melton serendipitously fell to the Rockets way down at No. 46 overall. At 6-foot-3, Melton has a shot to contribute on both ends immediately as an above-average defender and a microwavable scorer. During his Las Vegas debut, Melton tallied 16.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, four assists and a summer league-leading three steals across five contests — albeit at an improvable 38 percent from the floor. As a tenacious playmaker, Melton should get ample opportunity to impress with a franchise looking to avenge their brutal Western Conference Finals defeat last spring.
On top of learning from one of the best point guards in league history, there also happens to be little competition for Melton in the rotation. In July, the Rockets signed Michael Carter-Williams, a former Rookie of the Year winner that averaged just 4.6 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists in 52 games for Charlotte in 2017-18 — and, well, that’s it. For a three-point bombing franchise like Houston, neither guard fits particularly well in that regard, but Melton’s 28.4 percent clip in one season as an 18-year-old still projects better than Carter-Williams’ 25 percent mark over five years.
Chris Paul missed 24 regular season games last year, but the Rockets are still willing to head into training camp with a second-round rookie and Carter-Williams holding down the backup point guard slot — that alone says far more about Houston’s faith in Melton than anything else.
Élie Okobo, Phoenix Suns
2017-18: 12.9 points, 4.8 assists on 39.4 percent from three
Outside of Džanan Musa and the aforementioned Dončić, the Phoenix Suns’ Élie Okobo entered draft night as the most promising overseas prospect in the bunch. Okobo, a 6-foot-2 Frenchman, could feasibly become the Suns’ franchise point guard by season’s end. The playmaking 20-year-old has just Brandon Knight ahead of him on the depth chart, a formidable NBA point guard, but one that does not fit Phoenix’s current rebuilding plan. Admittedly, his statistics won’t jump off the page just yet — 2.3 points, 3.5 assists in four summer league contests — but the potential for Okobo is certainly here.
While it’s worth noting that Okobo didn’t score in three straight contests after his impressive debut, he appears to be a suitable backcourt partner with franchise cornerstone Devin Booker. Whether he’s connecting with a backdoor cut in stride or hitting difficult running floaters, there are plenty of positives to take thus far. With a postseason appearance looking unlikely for the Suns, it’ll make sense to give Okobo the reins before long — even if they can’t move Knight’s contract worth $15.6 million in 2019-20.
Mitchell Robinson, New York Knicks
Needless to say, Mitchell Robinson could be an absolute treat for the New York Knicks.
For much of the pre-draft process, it looked like Robinson was a shoo-in first rounder, with many speculating that he even received a promise from the Los Angeles Lakers at No. 25 overall. Once the first 30 picks came and went without Robinson — who elected to pull out of the draft combine in May — the Knicks were more than happy to scoop him up. Across five summer league contests, Robinson averaged 13 points, 10.2 rebounds and a competition-leading four blocks per game on 67 percent from the field.
On a team-friendly four-year deal worth just $1.8 million in 2021-22, Robinson already looks like a bargain. But beyond his first-round talent at a second-round price, there’s a real chance that Robinson can contribute for New York right away. Following the recent news that Joakim Noah will be stretched if the Knicks can’t find a suitable partner by training camp, that leaves exactly two centers left on the roster: Enes Kanter and Robinson. The 7-foot-1 prospect is a natural replacement for the departed Kyle O’Quinn, while the newly-minted David Fizdale should love Robinson’s shot-changing impact defensively.
Even if Robinson shuttles back-and-forth to and from Westchester throughout the season, he could still seamlessly slide into the Knicks’ rotation from day one.
Jevon Carter, Memphis Grizzlies
2017-18: 17.3 points, 6.6 assists, 3 steals on 39.3 percent from three
Earlier this week, Matt John put forth an excellent case for what should be a comeback season for the Grit-And-Grind Grizzlies — but there’s one second-rounder still currently flying under the radar. Despite a stellar final season at West Virginia, Carter dropped into Memphis’ lap and there are few that so elegantly fit the franchise’s identity without effort. As the reigning back-to-back NABC Defensive Player of the Year, Carter should split the backup point guard minutes with newcomer Shelvin Mack, if not more by season’s end.
The additions of Jaren Jackson Jr., Kyle Anderson and Omri Casspi, along with renewed health from Mike Conley Jr. and Marc Gasol, will have Memphis eying the postseason once again — but Carter will likely be a fan favorite long before then as well. During his lengthy summer league initiation, Carter pulled in 11.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.1 steals over seven games. Although his 35 percent clip from the floor could use some restraint, he won’t need to shoulder offensive responsibilities with the Grizzlies.
Carter’s hard-nosed style of play will enhance an uncharacteristically poor Memphis defense from last season, with his years of extra experience allowing the bullish ball-stopper to drop into the rotation from the get-go.
With franchises focused on their high-ranking lottery picks, many second round draftees (and their often non-guaranteed contracts) will never carve out a consistent NBA role. But from backing up future Hall of Famers to filling a hole in the rotation, it should surprise no one if Antetokounmpo, Melton, Okobo, Robinson and Carter earn some big-time opportunities in 2018-19. Last year alone, Semi Ojeleye, Dillon Brooks and Jordan Bell all quickly found their niche at the professional level — so who will it be this year?