What Is He Worth?
As the NBA trade season starts to ramp up this week, there are a few names that will get a little more play in the rumor mill than most. But defining their trade value may be harder than you think, mainly because of their contract status or the season they are having.
DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento
Let’s start here. DeMarcus Cousins is not asking for or seeking a trade, and the Sacramento Kings are not fielding or talking to teams about a trade involving Cousins. That’s where you have to start with this situation.
There is a reality looming over the marriage of Cousins and the Kings: The Kings are still not contending, and Cousins’ contract is running out.
Cousins becomes an unrestricted free agent in roughly 565 days. The Kings are sitting at 9-15 (.375). The good news is that’s three games out of the eighth seed in the West, but that’s still not good basketball.
The story around the NBA is pretty consistent. At some point, the Kings have to face the reality that Cousins will hit the open market, and history has not been kind to non-winning teams with top level free agents.
Cousins says all the right things when asked about trades. The Kings say all the right things when teams call trying to pry Cousins out of Sacramento. They are both trying to keep the marriage in a good place (which it is), but there is a reality to all of it.
The Kings have listened over the last year to what has come in regarding offers and ideas, and while there are a few teams that would unload a lot to get Cousins for the next year and six months, none of it is equal value for what Cousins is to the Kings right now.
Kings ownership is unwilling to give away arguably the top center in the game for what amounts to a handful of young guys and the promise of future draft picks that amount to a handful of magic beans. Sure, the Kings could land someone new in the draft, but they are invested in Cousins and believe the best scenario for them is to build around him, even if there is risk somewhere down the road.
As one source close to the situation said recently, “If you know the return is bad, why make the deal?” And the Kings know the return is bad.
There is little doubt that the Kings could move Cousins tomorrow if they wanted to. They could get some young guys, some expiring contracts and draft picks, but frankly and honestly, the Kings know that won’t help them in the short-term – not nearly as much as having an All-Star center to build around for another year and seeing where things land.
Maybe the Kings get less in a year if they opt to trade Cousins at a later date. Their view is they’d get less for him now, so what’s the difference.
That’s the problem in trying to extract value for a star-level talent at the end of his contract.
Greg Monroe, Milwaukee
The Milwaukee Bucks and Greg Monroe have not been a very good pairing. Monroe is now a fixture on the Bucks’ bench, and that does not look to be changing anytime soon.
The Bucks tried pretty aggressively to find a trade for Monroe last year, and all through the offseason it was said the Bucks were not looking for much for Monroe, hoping to free up the cap space and a roster spot.
The problem for the Bucks, and to a certain extent for Monroe, is that his contract is a tough one to move.
Monroe holds a player option for next season worth $17.8 million. Ultimately, it’s his choice whether to stay in this deal or opt to explore the market for a longer-term deal. Few around the league expect Monroe to command more than the $17.8 million he’s owed, but would he cash that in for a new multi-year deal with a better fitting team?
The problem for the Bucks is this: Teams that would want Monroe as a straight up rental would pay one price in a trade knowing he likely walks in July. There are teams that would entertain that.
The other side of that are the teams that would want Monroe beyond this current year. Unless Monroe opts into that final year, there is risk for those teams that see Monroe as a longer-term option. It’s the unpredictability that kills the market for Monroe.
The belief is the asking price on Monroe is not very high, and with the Bucks still middling in the East at 11-12, there is a sense that moving Monroe would be more likely than not, even if the return is fairly low.
Milwaukee does have to weigh their options, because moving off $17 million in contract money is not easy without taking some contract money back in return. The last thing the Bucks want to do is litter their future flexibility with a bad contract, so the difficulty in finding the right mix of value, cap flexibility, and a team willing to play both sides of Monroe’s contract is why Monroe is still in Milwaukee. Maybe that changes as the trade market gets underway, but finding that balance is no easy task.
Mario Hezonja, Orlando
The Orlando Magic are one of the teams to watch in terms of an early trade. The team is better in some ways than they were four weeks ago, but they are still struggling on offense, and there is a growing sense they will be aggressive in trying to snag a scoring threat in a trade.
The Magic have some assets they can move. Center Nikola Vucevic is no longer a focal point for the team and is on one of the more favorable team-friendly contracts in the NBA. The Magic are highly invested in other players in the front court that match their defensive mindset, and Vucevic seems to be the odd-man out.
The Magic still hold some favorable draft picks, not only from their cache of picks but from picks they have acquired in trades.
The Magic have some youth in guard Elfrid Payton, who has been relegated to the bench by head coach Frank Vogel. They have the all-energy tweener in Aaron Gordon and they have last year’s fifth overall pick Mario Hezonja, who is not even seeing playing time.
Hezonja is the interesting one because his camp is growing frustrated with his lack of a role and there is growing pressure to either find a role for him or find him a new home. The Magic like Hezonja a great deal, but they are trying to win games and Hezonja has regressed a great deal this year, so much so that the coaching staff won’t put him in games despite a need for scoring.
The Magic have been sniffing around the league doing early due diligence on trades, so it’s likely they trigger something sooner than later, but the question becomes: What do the Magic get in return?
Hezonja’s value could not be any lower given his 3.8 points per game average and downright dreadful 3.41 PER. Had Hezonja posted a monster rookie year he might hold more value, but even as a rookie Hezonja job-shared, logging just 17.9 minutes per game and averaging 6.1 points. There were some flashes, but hardly the sustained presence that could command a lot in return.
The Magic have eyes on a postseason run and something more than just eighth seed fodder this year. To reach that goal, the Magic clearly will need more than they currently have. The question becomes, what can they really move and what kind of value does it return?
Stanley Johnson, Detroit
Like Hezonja in Orlando, Detroit’s Stanley Johnson has fallen out of the picture for the Pistons. The situation is a little different because Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy would like to use Johnson more, he just has not been nearly as effective as the team hoped coming into the season.
The Pistons recently sent Johnson to the D-League to get him some extended minutes and a chance to play his way out of the funk he’s been in for most of the season. Johnson delivered a huge 26-point, five-rebound and four-assist showing in his first D-League game. Johnson returned to the Pistons for their matchup against the 76ers on Sunday but didn’t necessarily bring the magic back with him.
The Pistons are in a tough spot because they genuinely believe in Johnson’s potential, but they can’t afford to waste game minutes if Johnson is going to struggle, especially defensively.
Sources close to the situation say the Pistons are not ready to give up on the promise of Johnson, but they may have to consider other options if Stanley can’t turn the corner.
Johnson said he is open to shuttling back and forth between the NBA and the D-League every so often to get extended minutes, which is smart, because if he can’t get minutes for the Pistons at least he keeps his value up if they opt to move in a new direction.
Monta Ellis, Indiana
As if things were not bad enough for Pacers guard Monta Ellis this year, he’s been ruled out for the next four games due to a groin injury and will not travel with the team.
Ellis has posted a gruesome season so far, notching the second-lowest scoring average of his career at 9.7 points game. Ellis’ assists are down, his steals are down and his PER is by far the worst of his career at 9.61.
To make matters worse, Ellis has three years left on his deal: $10.76 million this season, $11.27 million next season and a player option in the 2018-2019 season worth $11.69 million.
It is becoming clear the Pacers are a much better team without Ellis, which is why his name is mentioned so frequently in trade talk. The problem for the Pacers is, who trades for him given the situation? He is injured, owed a ton of money and not producing. Any one of those scenarios kills a possible trade, but Ellis may have the trifecta of deal-killing circumstances.
There is a belief that Ellis has not been right physically all year, and that the decision to leave him home for the next six days isn’t just about giving him time to heal, but to give him a chance to re-focus as well.
The Pacers are one of the teams right there in the Eastern Conference hunt, so every game matters. If the Pacers continue to play well without Ellis, it gets easier and easier to justify a trade. The problem is that Ellis may have very little trade value given all the circumstances of his situation.
While these are by no means the only names we’re going to hear about over the coming weeks, these are some of the names we’re talking about now and there will be more to come.
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NBA Daily: Surging HEAT Must Overcome Adversity
The Miami HEAT have been hit with a number of injuries at shooting guard. Can they stay hot?
The Miami HEAT have surged to fourth in the Eastern Conference on the back of a 14-5 stretch since Dec. 9, including a seven-game win streak that ended with Monday’s 119-111 loss to the Bulls in Chicago. In the loss, shooting guard Tyler Johnson got his legs tangled with Robin Lopez and appeared to suffer a serious injury.
“I was scared,” said HEAT small forward Josh Richardson, who joined his teammates in racing down the court to check on Johnson. “You never want to see a guy, whether it’s on your team or the other team, down like that. I talked to him when he was in here [the locker room] and he said he didn’t know what was up.”
Coach Erik Spoelstra told pool reporters after the game that X-rays were negative. It was initially feared to be a knee injury, but Spoelstra said the knee is okay and the ankle is the area of concern. Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel tweeted that an MRI was not deemed necessary and Johnson will be listed as doubtful for Wednesday’s game in Milwaukee.
Tyler Johnson will be listed as doubtful for Wednesday's game against the Bucks, still with no plans for an MRI on his sprained left ankle sustained Monday in Chicago. He remains with the team, which did not practice Tuesday.
— Ira Winderman (@IraHeatBeat) January 16, 2018
Meanwhile, the HEAT is facing a serious shortage at shooting guard, having lost Dion Waiters to season-ending knee surgery, Rodney McGruder to a left tibia stress fracture that will likely keep him out until February, and now Johnson. Miami has applied for a $5.5 million disabled player exception after losing Waiters, according to the Sun-Sentinel. HEAT power forward James Johnson said the team will be looking for other players to step up.
“I think it’s the next guy’s gonna step up like we always do,” said Johnson. “As we have guys going down we also have guys getting back and getting back in their groove [like] Justise Winslow. Hopefully, it’s going to give another guy a chance to emerge on this team or in this league.”
Johnson added that the loss to Chicago came against a hot team and the HEAT didn’t have the right mental approach or defensive communication to slow them down.
“Our communication was lacking tonight,” said Johnson. “I think our brains rested tonight and that’s not like us. Tilt your hat to Chicago. They’re shooting the hell out the ball. They didn’t let us come back.”
Richardson echoed the theme of communication and the inability to counter a hot-shooting team.
“We weren’t communicating very well and we were not giving them enough static on the three-point line,” said Richardson. “They’ve been the number one three-point shooting team in the league for like 20 games now. They ran some good actions that we were not reacting right to.”
Spoelstra referred to a turnover-riddled close to the first half as “disgusting” basketball and agreed that the defense let his team down.
“I don’t know what our record is in HEAT franchise history when we give up 120-plus,” said Spoelstra. “I would guess that it’s probably not pretty good.”
The good news for Miami is that it can try a combination of Richardson and Winslow at the wings, while Wayne Ellington has been shooting the leather off the ball from three this season (40.5 percent on over seven attempts per game). The HEAT is the latest team to attempt to defy history by making a serious run without a superstar player. To make that a reality and remain in the upper half of the East’s playoff bracket, Miami will have to personify the “next man up” credo.
NBA Daily: Is It Time To Cash Out On Kemba Walker?
Should the Hornets get serious about trading Kemba Walker or risk losing him in 2019 for next to nothing?
Is It Time To Sell?
Every professional sports team at some point has to decide when its time to cash out, especially if they have a star player heading towards free agency. The Charlotte Hornets are a team teetering on this decision with star guard Kemba Walker.
Now, let’s be honest for a moment. The Hornets are getting nothing of meaningful value in a trade for Walker if they decided to put him on the trade market—that’s something that will drive part of the decision. Check out these UK sports books with free bets!
The other part of the decision is evaluating the marketplace. This is where Charlotte may have an advantage that’s easy to overlook, which is the ability to massively overpay.
Looking ahead to the cap situations for the NBA in the summer of 2019, there doesn’t appear to be a lot worth getting excited over. While it’s possible someone unexpected goes into cap clearing mode to get space, the teams that project to have space in 2019 also project to have space in 2018, meaning some of that 2019 money could get spent in July and change the landscape even more.
But for the sake of discussion, let’s assume most of the 2019 cap space teams swing and miss on anything meaningful this summer and have flexibility the following summer. Not only will Walker be a name to watch, but guys like Boston’s Kyrie Irving, Minnesota’s Jimmy Butler, Golden State’s Klay Thompson, Dallas’ Harrison Barnes, Detroit’s Tobias Harris, San Antonio’s Kawhi Leonard and Cleveland’s Kevin Love can all hit unrestricted free agency.
That’s a pretty respectable free agent class.
While most of those names will likely stay where they are, especially if their teams shower them with full max contracts as most would expect, there are a few names that might make the market interesting.
The wrinkle in all of it is the teams projected to have space. Based on what’s guaranteed today, the top of the 2019 cap space board starts with the LA Clippers.
The Clippers currently have just Blake Griffin and Danilo Gallinari under contract going into 2019. They will have qualifying offers on Milos Teodosic and Sam Dekker, but that’s about it. If the Clippers play their cards right, they could be looking at what could be close to $48 million in usable cap space, making them the biggest threat to poach a player because of the LA marketplace. It should be noted, though, that DeAndre Jordan’s situation will have an impact here.
The Chicago Bulls come in second on the 2019 cap space list with just $35.77 million in cap commitments. The problem for the Bulls is they are going to have to start paying their young guys, most notably Zach LaVine. That’s won’t stop the Bulls from getting to cap space, it’s simply a variable the Bulls have to address this summer that could get expensive.
The Philadelphia 76ers could come in third on the 2019 cap space list, although it seems the 76ers may go all in this summer on re-signing guard J.J. Redick and a swing at a big fish or two. If the 76ers miss, they still have an extension for Ben Simmons to consider, but that shouldn’t impact the ability to get to meaningful space.
For the Hornets, those three situations have to be a little scary, as all of themff something Charlotte can’t offer – big markets and rosters (save maybe the Clippers) with potentially higher upside.
The next group of cap space markets might get to real salary cap room, but its more likely they spend this summer like say the Houston Rockets or are equal to less desirable situations like Sacramento (similar), Dallas (has Dennis Smith Jr), Atlanta (similar) or Phoenix (likely drafts a point guard).
That brings us back to the Hornets decision making process.
If the Hornets put Walker on the market, historically, teams get pennies on the dollar for high-level players headed to free agency. If traded, its more likely than not that Walker hits free agency and goes shopping. That’s the scary part of trading for an expiring contract unless you get the player early enough for him to grow attached to the situation, most players explore options. That tends to drive down the potential return.
The Hornets can also start extension discussions with Walker and his camp this summer and it seems more likely than not the Hornets will pay Walker the full max allowed under the collective bargaining agreement, which could be a deal north of $150 million and he could ink that in July.
It’s possible that someone offers the Hornets the moon for Walker. That has happened in the past. The Celtics gave the Cavaliers a pretty solid return for Irving, a player the Cavaliers had to trade. So it’s not out of the question real offers come in, especially with the NBA trade deadline approaching, but what’s far more likely is the Hornets wait out this season and try to extend Walker this summer.
League sources at the G-League Showcase last week, doubted that any traction could be had on Walker while admitting he’s a name to watch, despite however unlikely a trade seemed today.
The challenge for the Hornets isn’t as simple as cashing out of Walker, not just because the return will be low, but also because where would the franchise go from here?
It’s easy to say re-build through the draft, but glance around the NBA today – how many of those rebuild through the draft situations are yielding competitive teams? How many of them have been rebuilding for five years or more?
Rebuilding through the draft is a painfully slow and frustrating process that usually costs you a coach or two and typically a new front office. Rebuilding through the draft is time consuming and usually very expensive.
It’s easier to rebuild around a star already in place and the fact that Walker himself laughs off the notion of him being anywhere but Charlotte is at least a good sign and the Hornets have some time before they have to really make a decision.
At some point, Charlotte has to decide when to cash out. For the Hornets, the time to make that decision on Walker might be the February 8 trade deadline. It might also be July 1, when they’ll know whether Walker would sign a max contract extension.
If he won’t commit then, the Hornets have their answer and can use the summer to try an extract a package similar to what the Cavaliers got for Irving.
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Cavs Woes Reason For Concern, But Not Dismissal
Spencer Davies takes a look at the Cavs’ issues and why we shouldn’t count them out just yet.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are the classic case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
When they’re on, they look like the defending three-time Eastern Conference Champions. When they’re off, they look like an old team that’s worn down and, at times, disinterested—and it gets ugly.
Take this past three weeks for example. After going on a tear of 18 wins in 19 games, the Cavs have dropped eight of 11 and are falling fast. Two of those three victories in that stretch were decided by four points or less against bottom-of-the-barrel teams in the East.
So what happened? For one, the schedule got significantly tougher. Beyond just the level of competition, Cleveland has been on the road for a long while. Nine of the games in this recent down period have been away games. The only time they’ve been home was for a quick second in mid-December and a short stay for New Years.
You’ve got to think about how that affects a psyche, not only from an on-court standpoint but also in regard to spending time with loved ones and family. LeBron James brought attention to his own homesickness on Christmas Day while he was in the Bay Area instead of in Northeast Ohio to celebrate the holidays. If it gets to him, you know it’s got to get to the other players as well. These guys are human beings with lives, and the rigors of travel can wear differently on people. Luckily for them, seven of their next nine games will be at Quicken Loans Arena.
With that being said, everybody in the NBA goes through it, so it’s no excuse for how flat the Cavs have been. Anybody on the team will tell you that, too. However, when you’re figuring out rotations and re-implementing players who had injuries, it’s not easy. This is exactly why nobody should envy Tyronn Lue.
He’s being asked to make room in his rotations and adjust on the fly as Cleveland gets guys back. When they went on that month-long run, the reason they had success was that the second unit really clicked. Dwyane Wade found his niche as the maestro of the bench bunch along with any mixture of Kyle Korver, Jeff Green, Cedi Osman, Channing Frye, and Jae Crowder. Lue had found the perfect group to spell LeBron James and company.
But then, Tristan Thompson came back and, with all due respect, it messed with their flow. The spacing is no longer there for Wade or Green to penetrate because the paint is clogged. It makes it easier on opposing defenses to just stick to Korver because there aren’t any other threatening shooters on the floor (besides Osman, maybe). Worst of all, the change basically kicked Frye—who has a plus-14 net rating, according to Cleaning The Glass—out of the rotation completely.
Deciding who plays and when is a tough job. Derrick Rose is set to come back soon. Iman Shumpert is coming along as well. Lue likes a 10-man rotation, but there are at least 12 players who deserve to be on that court. We already know Rose is expected to commandeer the second unit in Wade’s absence on back-to-backs. As for if Shumpert remains in Cleveland, who knows? It’ll be interesting to keep an eye on how this situation is managed moving forward.
Isaiah Thomas, on the other hand, is somebody the Cavs have been waiting on to return since the season started. Despite LeBron being LeBron and Kevin Love having as great of an offensive year as he’s ever had on the team, the starting unit lacks an extra punch. Thomas can be that shot in the arm, and he proved that in his debut at home against Portland and on the road in Orlando. There are two snags that both he and the team are going to hit before the 29-year-old returns to his All-Star form: 1) He’s got to get his legs under him to regain the consistency in his game and 2) His teammates are going to have to adjust to playing with him.
These are not easy things to do. Remember, aside from Jae Crowder, there is nobody on Cleveland’s roster that has played with Thomas before. Add in that he’s trying to re-discover his own game and that makes for a pretty bumpy road, at least out of the gate.
Start here—put Thompson in the starting lineup. As poor of a fit he’s been on the bench, he has shown promising signs of a developing chemistry with Thomas. It’s only been four games, but he loves having a partner in the pick-and-roll game. That’s clearly where you’ll get the most production out of him and how he can thrive. He’ll provide hustle, second chance opportunities, and a semi-decent big that can at least bother some of the competition’s drives to the basket. Sliding Love over to the four might change his game a little bit, but you can still get him going in the post before giving him chances as a shooter to work him outside-in.
The resulting effect helps the second unit as well. They’ll get one of either J.R. Smith or Crowder, depending on who would be relegated there. Both of those guys can use a spark to get them going. Because of Crowder’s familiarity with Thomas, let’s say Smith gets kicked out. Maybe that gets him out of the funk he’s in? It also allows for Frye, who hasn’t seen more than 20 minutes in a game since December 4, to get re-acclimated to a group he truly helped on both ends of the floor earlier in the year.
Outside of the need to make a move at the deadline, the Cavs can figure this out. It’s understood that they’re the fourth-worst defensive team in the NBA, but they’ve gone through these kinds of ruts at this time of year, specifically since LeBron came back. There might not be statistical evidence backing up the claim of any improvement, but the track record speaks for itself.
The panic button is being hit, but pump the brakes a bit. This isn’t anything new. The pieces are a little different and things look as bad as they ever have, but in the end, the result will likely be the same.