One year removed from the second departure of LeBron James, the Cleveland Cavaliers’ shift in course has never felt more comforting.
With players wearing smiles, showing their humorous sides and taking pictures at various stations, it wasn’t hard to tell how clear the air in the building was at Media Day. After all, we’re officially into October, meaning that NBA training camps and preseason have gotten underway.
This time of year signifies a fresh start for all teams and optimism is at its highest. Regardless of what happened in the previous season or during the summer, there are clean slates across the board in the wins and losses column. For a Cavaliers group coming off a discombobulated, injury-riddled 19-win campaign in 2018-19, it’s especially relieving.
“I felt we had almost like three seasons to be honest with you,” Jordan Clarkson said Monday at Cleveland Clinic Courts.
Clarkson remembers Tyronn Lue’s firing six games into the year. He remembers Larry Drew taking over as the voice of the team before agreeing upon interim head coaching duties through the finish line. He can’t help but shake his head, snickering at the thought of how many bumps and bruises the team gathered along the way, leaving no choice but to lean on a collection of two-way players and 10-day contracts.
New Cavaliers head coach John Beilein, however, did not go through that tumultuous time with the wine and gold. Instead, he was leading the Michigan Wolverines to a fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament run in their second straight season with at least 30 wins. Beilein surprised many when he decided to take a stab at making the jump to the pros after 41 years of coaching in the college ranks, but he’s never been more excited to dive right in with his first NBA squad.
“There’s a lot of opportunities here instead of challenges,” Beilein said when asked about what would be the most difficult aspect of his transition.
No longer will Beilein have to live in a suitcase while taking plane rides to various states on recruiting trips, nor will he have to worry about factors outside of teaching his players hands-on. At 66 years old, he’ll be embarking on a new journey with more energy than he’s ever had before in order to turn the tide in Cleveland.
Beilein will have plenty of assistance in all of this. He constantly reminds everyone of how J.B. Bickerstaff, Antonio Lang, Dan Geriot and Lindsay Gottlieb are playing just as important of a role as he is. Still, don’t exclude the guys on the court doing their part either.
“When we have a player-led team, that’s when we’re a really good team,” Beilein said. “Whether it’s Kevin [Love], whether it’s Tristan [Thompson], whether it’s Collin Sexton, whether it’s Darius Garland, anybody can move into that leadership position. So it’s really important that we’re connected with them, so they can take over and we can just adapt to changes we need to make.”
Beilein understands how demanding of an endeavor it will be. He knows that the Cavaliers ranked dead last defensively a season ago, the worst rating in NBA history. Making such improvements on both ends will not happen overnight. He’ll have about one-third of the practice time he’s used to and nearly three times the amount of games to accomplish what he wants.
Whatever lies ahead, he’s prepared for it by having in-depth conversations with Billy Donovan and Brad Stevens — two coaches that also leaped to the pros from Division-I — and his staff as a whole.
“We’re coaching a lot of veterans, we’re coaching a lot of young men. There’s very similar strategy to those,” Beilein said. “You learn from defeat. You get better from defeat. Defeat doesn’t kill you. It’s going to make you better. You don’t want to lose too much, but it’s that same thing. Handling adversity is easier than handling prosperity. You’ve got to be mentally tough to handle a winning streak, too. And so, all those things come into play as you’re reading the pulse of the team.”
Beilein’s top priority in his debut year is to get Cleveland on a steady rise, ensuring development and true growth out of his players, both young and old, with a focus on fundamentals. He maintains if that vision comes to fruition, the wins will take care of themselves.
Needless to say, tied with the Phoenix Suns for the second-worst record in the league, the wins did not take care of themselves last year. There were flashes of progression here and there, and the team was noticeably better when it had healthy players soaking up the majority of the minutes — but there was no hiding the fact that the Cavaliers were a level below everybody else.
Going through a rebuilding process takes patience and a strong mind. Keeping an eye on the bigger picture is key, often taking the harsh downswings in stride alongside the rarer highs. Such a mentality will be necessary once again this season, as Cleveland has hit the reset button with its personnel and its roster.
“It definitely just kinda changed your mindset in terms of everything and prepared us for this year,” Clarkson said. “I feel like us coming in here, everybody should have an open mind ready to compete and play because everything is new.”
“As a team, I feel like we can’t go backwards,” Sexton said. “We can only move forward and continue to get better.”
Sexton and Clarkson were the only Cavaliers to play over 80 games in 2018-19, with the former featured in every single contest.
Cedi Osman, another crucial piece in this young core, played the third-most amount during his first full year in the NBA. What’s unique about him is that he was a part of that conference championship-winning team as a rookie, so he’s experienced both sides of the spectrum, something the Turkish forward feels has readied him for what lies ahead.
“First two years, it was like white and black,” Osman said. “I saw going to the Finals and not making the playoffs, so that’s why I believe that those two years really made me better. This year, I believe we have a much better team and I think we’re gonna have the chance to surprise a lot of teams . . . I really believe we have a bright future in front of us.”
Love and Thompson played integral roles during championship-caliber seasons at the Cavaliers’ height. They’ve also been on rebuilding ball clubs before in the early days of their respective careers. Larry Nance Jr. is somewhere in the middle has he enters year five. No member of that trio is a stranger to what an 82-game marathon consists of.
“There’s gonna be lumps and bumps. There’s gonna be growing pains and bruises and all of that stuff,” Nance said. “It’s gonna take time to mesh, take time to jell together – and all that takes mental toughness. Especially with me hopefully shouldering more of the leadership load in the locker room this year. Mental toughness is what it’s all about.
“It’s not just gonna be from me. It’s gonna be from Kev, from Tristan, Darius and Collin. It’s gonna be from all of us. This is a unique team. I think that we can be really good, but it’s gonna take a lot of stick-to-it-ness.”
Thompson embraces being an important voice in the locker room. He enjoys taking his teammates under his wing, particularly rookies going from a 30-game season to a much longer one in the pros.
“For us, we’ve gotta tell ‘em, you’re gonna have some nights where you feel like this NBA stuff is easy and you’re gonna have nights where you feel like, ‘Man, do I belong?’ But you’ve just gotta stay the course,” Thompson said. “It’s on us veterans to kinda help their process [and make it] easier. However we can help ‘em be the best they can be, that’s on us. And as a leader of this team, it’s important for me to help these guys transition very smoothly.”
The reality is this: All but five players on Cleveland’s roster have fewer than six years of experience under their belt. Three rookies — and potentially a couple more on two-way contracts — will be carving out their respective niches on the team as things move along. With learning comes lessons. With lessons come losses. And with losses, invariably, comes second-guessing.
Handling everything with a one game at a time approach is a quality some players have trouble with. For those exposed to the league for the first time, it can be even more difficult to grasp. Noise can enter their heads and drive them down. Garland has spoken with his agent, Rich Paul, about this very subject.
“[Rich has] dealt with a lot of guys, so I’ve heard a lot of different stories,” Garland said. “It’s a long season. 82 games is a long season. Coming from college — I only played five — it’s gonna be crazy for me to play all 82. I mean, I’m ready though. I’m ready to just attack the season really hard, play my game, get my teammates involved and do what we have to do to win.”
Beilein has wasted no time in implementing his methods.
Working one week early with rookies such as Garland, Dylan Windler and Kevin Porter Jr. — along with Dean Wade and Marques Bolden — he introduced the Beilein Ball, a customized, official NBA basketball with a black stripe lasered around it. The concept is to see the rotation of the ball and correct hand positioning on shots and spin on passes.
“He’s really into his craft,” Garland said. “That’s what I like about him. He’s really a gym rat. He’s always in here working or doing something with the guys, so it’s really fun being around him.”
Nance senses Beilein’s eagerness, going as far as to say that his coach has more energy than him. Clarkson is already a fan of his emphasis on ball movement. Sexton, too, has noticed a change in culture with him and his staff in charge.
Getting through to Love and Thompson is arguably the most imperative for Beilein as he tries to gain respect and set the tone; but so far, so good. Thompson has had conversations with former teammate Nik Stauskas and friend Darius Morris, hearing rave reviews about the offensive guru from two former Wolverines.
“He kinda wants to see what can you bring to the table instead of just boxing you up before knowing who you are as a player,” Thompson said of Beilein. “That’s what you want from your coach, especially a new coach.”
Beilein treats practice as seriously as he does a game — with tempo and intensity. He has a daily mantra in which everybody on the floor participates before the two-and-a-half hour session begins.
How are we gonna practice? “Hard!” How are we gonna practice? “Smart!”
Day one featured a lot of station work, with the team sorted into rotating groups of three by jersey color: red, white and green. Each of those were assigned to assistants. Lang worked with the big men, Bickerstaff and Geriot took defensive responsibilities with the guards and Gottlieb assumed a role centered around development. The morning finished off with 5-on-5.
Following the first practice of training camp, Love referred to Beilein’s ways as “old school” with an attention to detail and getting back to the basics.
“I think it’s his enthusiasm, just in how he talks and how he approaches every day,” Love said after the first day. “But [old school] was what I was around when I grew up. My dad [Stan Love] put the ball in my hands and he talked about every era, even before he came into the league. So maybe a breath of fresh air is the wrong terminology, because I’ve played for some great coaches, but just a different look.”
Day two was a bit more rough around the edges. There were moments of slippage in defensive stances and sporadic bad passes. There were no sour attitudes or any signs of apathy, but rather just not doing the simple things.
“They don’t have a lack of discipline,” Beilein said Wednesday. “They probably have a lack of knowledge of how to play efficiently. That’s what discipline is. You have discipline, you’re efficient.”
That’s why Beilein intends to really emphasize the instructional side of practice, showing the players specific mistakes that were made and assuring they grow and learn from those.
“Many of the young players have probably been able to get by with talent and still win the game without a lot of discipline. They’re so good – sometimes their team wins by 30, 20, all these things – and they don’t really know what wins and loses games,” Beilein said.
“And now as they get into college and now from here, they start to really realize, ‘That was really boring when coach taught it to me, but it’s really important now.’ It takes time. Everybody will have a different learning curve. But it takes time for some more than others to put some significance, put some more importance [into] some simple things that are really easy to do, but in the middle of action, they’re hard to do when you’re thinking about something else.”
There are three weeks of training camp until the regular season gets underway later this month. As of today, 30 teams in the NBA are even at 0-0.
While everybody technically has a fresh start, the Cavaliers have undergone a true facelift. The building is filled with hope. The demeanor around the organization is loose. There is really no pressure on them outside of the maturation of the franchise as a whole.
Beilein drew a comparison to the newly-renovated Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse to paint a picture of how he looks at the upcoming campaign.
“There’s a lot of new things going on down there, just like with our basketball program,” Beilein said. “They didn’t have to knock it down and build another one. They had to repurpose, refinish, rebuild different areas to keep up with the times, and we’re going to be doing the same thing.
“I think you’ll embrace the product. Be patient with it. And as we go along, hopefully you’ll see steady improvement, both in the wins and in the losses.”
Cleveland’s ascension is set to begin with Beilein at the helm.
It’s up to the rest to buy-in.
NBA Daily: The Stretch Run – Central Division
In the next edition of our The Stretch Run series, Basketball Insiders takes a closer look at the Central Division bubble teams as things get back on track following the All-Star break.
The so-called second half of the season is kicking back into gear, but the forthcoming agendas for teams in the Central Division are all very different. Some organizations have their eye on the draft lottery, some on making the playoffs and one or two have set their sights on the NBA Finals. Each team has less than 28 games remaining, which means every one of them will be extremely important.
As part of Basketball Insiders’ latest running series called The Stretch Run, we’re taking a look at every division and analyzing their standing — both in the postseason position or rebuilding efforts.
The Central Division is a mixed bag of teams on various tier levels, naturally. The Milwaukee Bucks find themselves alone at the top, owning the best record in the league — as of publishing — with a 46-8 record. Clearly not a bubble team, Milwaukee’s focus has been on fine-tuning their roster and figuring out their playoff rotation. They recently added another piece in Marvin Williams after his buyout with the Charlotte Hornets.
Behind the Bucks sit the Indiana Pacers with a 32-23 record at the All-Star break. Indiana beat Milwaukee in their final game before the stoppage to end a five-game losing streak. One of the reasons for their recent struggles is likely due to incorporating Victor Oladipo back into the rotation. While the chemistry will take time to build, the talented backcourt Oladipo and Malcolm Brogdon should be one of the best in the league eventually. Their twin towers of Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner should keep the Pacers squarely in the playoff picture.
At the opposite end of the spectrum sit the Cleveland Cavaliers. They are 14-40 on the season and have had very few bright spots. Collin Sexton picked up where he left off last season, but he hasn’t been able to elevate his teammates. The Cavaliers decided not to move Kevin Love before the trade deadline, before then acquiring Andre Drummond from a division rival to create a log jam of big men. After taking Sexton and Darius Garland in the draft lottery the past two years, Cleveland will likely have another top pick to use this summer.
The odd five-year contract that Cleveland gave former Michigan head coach John Beilein this past summer has not worked out well. After reports earlier this season that the players had already tuned him out, it appears as though his days in the league have come to an end. Beilein and the organization finalized a contract settlement that’ll stop proceedings just a half-season into the deal.
Again, and swiftly, the franchise has fallen on hard times since LeBron James’ second departure.
The remaining two teams in the Central are right on the bubble and have some work to do. All hope is not lost, but they will need a few breaks to go their way over these final weeks.
With those three out of the way, it’s time to dive deep into the divisional troublemakers.
The Chicago Bulls have had a disappointing season, but they also have dealt with a myriad of injuries. Now that the All-Star festivities have concluded, the city will see if their team can get back into the postseason with a little bit of luck. The Bulls are 19-36 on the season with 27 games remaining. Looking ahead, the numbers are fairly even as 14 of those games will be against teams .500 or better. Additionally, Chicago will also have 14 of those 27 games on their home floor.
Chicago has lost six straight games and is currently tenth in the Eastern Conference standings. worse, they must find a way to leapfrog the Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards. Both teams have a similar strength of schedule over the course of their remaining games. If the Bulls want to get back into the playoffs, they will have to finish tight games. Chicago has a winning percentage of 41.7 in close games this season, which ranks 22nd in the league.
Individually, Zach LaVine has been having an outstanding season. His 25.3 points and 4.8 rebounds per game are career highs — and his late-game execution has been remarkable, considering the defenses knowing exactly where the ball is going. His ability to penetrate, finish, or just pull up has kept Chicago afloat this season. Injuries to virtually every other player on the roster have had this team trying to dig their way out of a hole since early in the year.
Oddly enough, the offense has been the biggest issue in Chicago this season. The Bulls are 26th in offensive rating and rank 25th in the league in scoring. Their defense has actually been much better than most people realize as they rank inside the top half of the league in opponent scoring and defensive rating. Both Thaddeus Young and Kris Dunn have been catalysts on that end of the floor for Jim Boylen’s squad. If they crumble over this final stretch, it could be the end for the outspoken coach.
The Detroit Pistons have a little more work to do and they only have 25 games in which to do it. Detroit currently sits 12th in the conference with a 19-38 record. The most difficult obstacle in this challenge for the Pistons will be jumping over four teams to get there. Of their 25 remaining games, only 11 of them will be played at home in Little Caesars Arena.
A playoff appearance last season increased expectations for the Pistons this year, even with Blake Griffin’s injury in that first-round series. The thought was that he would be ready to go at the start of this season, but that didn’t happen. Unfortunately, he only made it 18 games before he had to have another round of surgery. Quickly, the season outlook changed for Dwane Casey’s team.
Drummond had a fantastic start to the season without Griffin and was put up his typically-monstrous numbers. With their outlook changing, Detroit traded the big man to Cleveland for all of John Henson, Brandon Knight and a second-round draft pick. Stranger, Derrick Rose has been Detroit’s best player by a wide margin. The resurgent point guard leads the team in points and assists — and, further, did not want to be traded. Reggie Jackson returned to the lineup just before the break but just accepted a buyout so that he could join the Los Angeles Clippers.
Christian Wood has played very well and rookie Sekou Doumbouya emerged as a pleasant surprise for the Pistons, thankfully, so it’s not all doom and gloom. Bruce Brown continues to be one of the best young guards that no one talks about. Should Luke Kennard return to health and continue his progression, a return to the playoffs might be possible with a strong finish. Change must come swiftly, however, as Detroit has lost 10 of its last 12 games.
The real question here is if the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference is indeed worth pursuing. Should Chicago or Detroit earn the spot, a first-round exit is almost a certainty. The Bucks are arguably the best team in the league with the likely back-to-back MVP leading them. Obviously these division rivals know Milwaukee well and simply do not have an answer for them. Injuries can always play a factor in how these things turn out, but the owners would prefer to have the playoff revenue.
The other side of this would be getting into the lottery to improve their first-round draft pick. Normally this is weighed heavily by the organizations, but with the rules designed to prevent teams from tanking, that’ll be difficult to do so.
Making the playoffs is still something that most players would like to do, needless to say. Coaches definitely would prefer that route, of course, as their jobs are dependent on it. Looking at the two Central Division teams in the hunt though, both appear to be headed back to the lottery once again.
Kristaps Porzingis Is Quietly Rounding Into Form
After disappointing early this season, Kristaps Porzingis is rounding into form with the Mavericks. How much does Luka Doncic’s absence factor into his improved recent play?
The Dallas Mavericks are far ahead of schedule.
Just a single season removed from their worst finish since 1998-99, the Mavericks are already back in playoff position, poised for another decade of success despite the departure of Dirk Nowitzki. The chief means behind their rapid rebuild requires no explanation. Luka Doncic will almost surely finish top-five in MVP voting this season and has a convincing case as the league’s best 20-year-old of all-time. At this rate, it’s even only a matter of time until Doncic supplants Dirk Nowitzki as Dallas’ greatest player in franchise history.
But Doncic’s ankle-breaking step-back triples, dazzling finishes and ingenious all-court playmaking won’t lift the Mavericks to legitimate contention alone. The front office has done typically well rounding out the roster with solid, versatile contributors who fit snugly next to Doncic, while Rick Carlisle’s consistent ability to get the most from his bench assures Dallas of competence on which most teams can’t rely without their superstar. The Mavericks couldn’t have planned to rise up the Western Conference hierarchy quite so rapidly, but already possess the rough outlines of a team ready to compete for a title.
Smoothing those edges into surefire championship contention will be no easy task. Tim Hardaway Jr.’s evolution into a valuable role player could complicate Dallas’ plans to make a splash in free agency this summer. The team projects to have more cap space in 2021, but Mark Cuban understands the fickle unknown of free agency better than any owner in basketball after years of missing out on marquee, high-priced targets.
Luckily for the Mavericks, they aren’t necessarily looking to free agency or the trade market to find Doncic a worthy co-star. Swinging for the fences last year by bringing in Kristaps Porzingis afforded the luxury of building around a potentially elite tandem from the ground up.
It’s no secret that Porzingis’ acclimation to the Mavericks, not to mention the court after spending a year-and-a-half off it while recovering from a torn ACL, is ongoing. Dallas’ plus-5.9 net rating with that pair on the floor is solid, far better than the team’s season-low mark after trudging into the All-Star break by losing four of its last six games. Still, there’s no getting around the fact that the Mavericks have fared far better with just one of Porzingis or Doncic on the floor despite their seemingly symbiotic offensive fit.
Dallas outscores opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions when Doncic plays without Porzingis, a feather in his MVP cap. The Mavericks’ plus-8.9 net rating when Porzingis plays without Doncic is almost equally strong, but the former hasn’t received near the praise bestowed on the latter for propping up similar lineups.
Even a multi-faceted big like Porzingis just can’t affect the game the way a maestro alpha dog like Doncic does. His abject struggles to punish smaller defenders on switches early in the season was a popular early-season talking point among national media — plus Carlisle’s December acknowledgment that Porzingis can better help his team by spacing the floor fueled that narrative further. Dallas didn’t sign Porzingis to a five-year, max-level extension before he ever donned a Mavericks uniform for him to shoot 34.5 percent on post-ups and 23.1 percent in isolation, per NBA.com/stats.
The Mavericks will always be best served with the ball in Doncic’s hands, but that hardly means they don’t need Porzingis to be much, much better than he’s been for the majority of this season when possessions devolve into one-on-one play. The good news? Recent evidence suggests Porzingis still has the goods to exist as that trump card, at least on a part-time basis.
With Doncic sidelined by a sprained right ankle for seven straight games early this month, Porzingis forcefully reminded the basketball world why optimists once considered him a potential MVP candidate in his own right. He dropped 38 points and 12 rebounds on the Houston Rockets, 38 and 12 on the Indiana Pacers and then 32 and 12 on the Memphis Grizzlies in successive appearances. After being limited against the Washington Wizards by a broken nose, he returned three days later to score 28 points on 17 field goal attempts against the Utah Jazz.
A five-game sample size is small, obviously, but the scope of Porzingis’ labors and the perception of his play in 2019-20 overall make his dominance without Doncic noteworthy regardless. He averaged 27.2 points and 10.2 rebounds over that brief stretch, shooting 50 percent from the field and 40.9 percent from deep on nearly nine three-point attempts per game.
But even without Doncic setting him up, Porzingis did most of his damage with help. Whether he was popping off screens or attacking overzealous close-outs off the dribble, he was still far more of a play finisher than starter — an indication of his limits as a true offensive fulcrum.
Where Porzingis’ play diverged from this season’s norm was his sudden propensity for drawing fouls. He took at least 10 free throws in just two games prior to Doncic going down, but surpassed that total versus Indiana, Memphis and Washington before attempting nine freebies against Utah. Porzingis lived at the line when Doncic returned to the lineup against the Sacramento Kings, too, connecting on 10-for-12 free throws during a 27-point outing.
Porzingis’ free throw rate now stands at .293, a hair off his mark during his breakout final season with the New York Knicks. Is that uptick and his recent scoring binge proof that Porzingis is merely getting more comfortable on the court two years removed from surgery? Or, rather, that the Latvian and Doncic still have work to do before reaching their ceiling as a duo?
The answer, obviously, lies somewhere in between. Porzingis’ rising production is what matters most — and should have the rest of the league extra wary of Dallas going forward – in both short and long-term futures.
NBA Daily: The Stretch Run – Pacific Division
Matt John starts off Basketball Insiders’ The Stretch Run by taking a look at the Pacific Division franchises on the playoff bubble.
Well, well, well . . . we’re now entering the home stretch here, people. With the All-Star break nearing its end, the regular season stakes will intensify exponentially. The losses count for far more now than they did a month ago. The playoff seedings are starting to settle a bit and we’re starting to see a playoff bubble in our midst.
With that in mind, Basketball Insiders would like to introduce a new series titled The Stretch Run. In these pieces, we’ll be looking at the teams from each division to evaluate their ever-growing bubble and the chances of reaching the postseason. Keep in mind, of course, that this analysis is based on the standings as of now. Needless to say, a whole bunch can change in the 25-and-change games that are left.
Today we’re diving into the Pacific Division — or, otherwise known as the top-heavy division.
There are other top-heavy divisions in the NBA at the moment — just look at the Central — but the Pacific Division is the much polarizing of them all. The best teams in the division currently sport two of the top three records in the Western Conference. The other three? Unfortunately, they hold three of the four worst records in the Western Conference.
So let’s just get this out of the way: Neither Los Angeles-based team is on the bubble. Barring a major meltdown — which is not likely when you have the likes of LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis and Paul George on your squad — both the Lakers and the Clippers are most definitely making the playoffs.
There’s not much cause for concern since both are expected to make deep postseason runs — although you never know with injuries. At this point, however, the franchises may too deep to worry about breaking down, but it’s still worth mentioning. According to Tankathon as of Feb. 18, the Lakers and Clippers have two of the league’s 10 easiest schedules from here on out, so all that has gone well should end well.
As for their other Pacific Division compatriots, well, those three are obviously in different places.
Just to tie up any loose ends before diving in, the Golden State Warriors are out, too. And they’ve probably been out since the day Stephen Curry broke his hand. To recap: The Warriors have the worst record in the league; currently trail behind Memphis by 16.5 games for the No. 8 seed with 27 contests left; Curry’s not expected back until March at the earliest. Hell, when Klay Thompson will make his season debut? Or, better yet, who knows if Klay Thompson will make his season debut at all?
The postseason boat has sailed for the boys in the Bay Area. After back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back runs to the NBA Finals, the gang needed a chance to catch their breath. If Curry and Thompson both make it back before season’s end, we’ll get a brief glimpse of Golden State’s new big three plus Andrew Wiggins. That doesn’t breed excitement as much as it breeds intrigue.
Thanks to the updated lottery rules, Golden State can compete at full strength without endangering their odds. Even better, don’t forget that high pick in the upcoming 2020 NBA Draft. The perennial contenders may have had a downer season but, in the long run, this may have been the best route for them.
Therein lies the Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings. Any postseason hopes are dim but all hope is not lost. First off, although both combine for two of the four aforementioned worst records in the conference, take it with a major grain of salt. They are currently No. 12 and No. 13 in the conference but the Suns are behind the Portland Trail Blazers by only three games for ninth, while the Kings lag the Blazers by only half a game more.
The hard part, however, is that Phoenix and Sacramento are both well behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the No. 8 seed — 6.5 and 7 games, respectively.
Again, though, all hope is not lost for them. At least, not entirely as the Grizzlies will have the toughest schedule for the rest of the season. Out of their final 28 games, Memphis faces 16 teams over .500, while 18 of them are against tougher Western Conference foes. Getting past them is doable, but they would have to leapfrog Portland, San Antonio and New Orleans in the process.
But who is more likely to complete that feat?
If we’re comparing their strength of schedule, it’s Sacramento. The Kings have the 10th-easiest schedule from here on out. Even though they’re facing 18 Western Conference teams of their own over the last 28 games, only 13 are against those over .500.
Phoenix, by contrast, has the eighth-hardest remaining. They may have fewer games in which they face Western Conference opponents — which could work against them seeing how head-to-head record impacts conference standing — but they also play more teams over .500 than Sacramento (15).
The Suns have a half-game lead over the Kings, but the Kings have an easier path ahead opponent-wise.
Unfortunately for both, the franchise with the easiest schedule for the remainder of the season appears to be the young and frightening New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans are starting to look like the dangerous sleeper we all thought they’d be now that Zion Williamson has arrived.
Sadly, that could spell doom for the Suns’ and Kings’ playoff hopes,
Both teams have been decimated by player absences — and pretty much from the beginning too. Phoenix lost Deandre Ayton literally one game into the year due to a suspension. Sacramento ended up missing De’Aaron Fox for a long stretch because of an early ankle sprain.
And even though those were the most prominent injuries, they’ve dealt with several others as well. Aron Baynes hasn’t played in a month, while it may be a while longer before Richaun Holmes takes the court again. Even Marvin Bagley III has struggled to stay on the court for most of the season.
As for how they compare for how they’ve done, there’s more evidence supporting Phoenix as the better team between the two, but only slightly. Phoenix has both a better point differential — minus-1.2 to minus-2.9 — and net rating — minus-0.9 to minus-2.6 — than Sacramento does. The Suns are not in a league above the Kings in either area, but the statistical differences would show that the former has played marginally better.
In the end, Sacramento entered this season with much higher expectations following the franchise’s most productive effort since 2006. On the other hand, Phoenix came into this season with the same small-level outlook they’ve held for quite some time.
So even though the Suns have exceeded expectations and the Kings have fallen well short, the two sides find themselves virtually tied.
Given the deep holes they’ve dug themselves heading toward March, however, it seems more than likely that the Suns and Kings will be spending the playoffs from their couches.
At this point, both franchises are in a newly-found position of promise but that still does not guarantee a postseason berth. Despite the valiant efforts, Phoenix and Sacramento will have the same closing remark when the season closes out: Better luck next year.