Could Be A Tough Restricted Market
Last summer was a little brutal to some of the guys that bet on themselves and for teams that rolled the dice on restricted free agency. Most early cap projections have the 2018-19 NBA Salary cap increasing slightly from the $99.093 million it landed at this season to just around $101 million.
While the NBA is doing better than it ever has in the revenue department, the salary cap system is simply a mechanism to ensure the players, as a group, receive the agreed 49-51 percent of total Basketball Related Income. Part of the calculation to reach the cap figure is based on what’s already owed to players in salaries and benefits. Because NBA teams spent like drunken sailors when the salary cap exploded two seasons ago, the cap isn’t jumping up nearly as much as some expected when all the new television rights revenue started to pour in.
The end result is after two years of aggressive spending, most teams will be either over the cap or in some cases way over the luxury tax line before free agency even opens.
This will have an impact on the marketplace, especially for players hoping for a whopper of an offer sheet in restricted free agency.
Current cap projections peg the Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, LA Lakers, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns and possibly the Indiana Pacers as having meaningful cap space.
While they say it only takes one team to set a market, having so few teams with meaningful cap space could make for a tough summer.
It is important to point out that restricted free agency is a multi-step process which starts with the issuance of a qualifying offer. A player does not have to accept the offer, and the team can, at any point, pull that offer making the player unrestricted.
All pending restricted free agent players have two values to keep in mind – the qualifying offer value and a cap hold value. Cap holds are in essence cap placeholders which take up a fixed and defined amount of cap space. While teams can exceed the cap to re-sign their own players, there is always a placeholder on the cap until a new deal is reached or the team renounces that player.
Here are some of the notable pending restricted free agents and what we know today:
Jabari Parker – Milwaukee Bucks
[$8.85m Qualifying Offer – $20.3m Cap Hold]
The Milwaukee Bucks entertained a number of offers on Parker at the trade deadline and at least seriously considering moving him. This is actually really common for teams that may be struggling to understand a player’s worth on the market.
Given Parker’s knee issues the balance of the season will be important for setting a real price on Parker.
Most NBA insiders believe the Bucks are not only going to pay Parker, but they may not force him to play out of the Offer Sheet game.
The Bucks are going to be way over the salary cap, so there is zero reason not to retain Parker on a new deal, simply because they won’t get below the salary cap line with or without a new Parker deal, so in essence any money paid to Parker is money that’s only available to Parker and no one else.
There are Luxury Tax concerns, and that would be meaningful for a smaller revenue market like Milwaukee, but with a brand-new area ready to come online, the word is Bucks ownership isn’t worried about the cost of the roster.
Aaron Gordon – Orlando Magic
[$7.26m Qualifying Offer – $16.51m Cap Hold]
Like Parker, the odds that Aaron Gordon is not re-signed in Orlando is pretty small; however, unlike Parker, the Magic may let the market drive the value of the next deal.
That’s not a reflection on how management views Gordon, simply that they are trying to shed cap dollars and get themselves right sided on a number of fronts and overpaying for Gordon is a concern.
The Magic are a team in transition, and there has been a growing sense that if Gordon did not want to come back, they might be open to a sign and trade, especially if the NBA draft yields a better fitting cornerstone player.
Like Parker, the Magic are going to be over the cap in a significant way, so money paid to Gordon is only available to him, and he would become tradable in January.
There is a scenario in which someone tries to poach Gordon with a max. level offer, but even then, the Magic would be smarter to match a deal unless it’s loaded with unfavorable terms to the Magic’s rebuild plan.
Dante Exum – Utah Jazz
[$6.61m Qualifying Offer – $14.97m Cap Hold]
Injuries have derailed Dante Exum’s NBA career, but there is a window this season for him to establish something of a market value in Utah with the team’s push toward the playoffs.
Unfortunately for Exum, he hasn’t done enough to live up to his draft hype, and he may be a player that takes the qualifying offer. In his case, one more year in Utah at $6.61 million, and the ability to veto any trades might be smarter than trying to find a deal that doesn’t tie him into a lower dollar deal.
The prevailing thought is the Exum will be back in Utah, but it would take something pretty spectacular to think its on a new long-term deal.
Marcus Smart – Boston Celtics
[$6.05m Qualifying Offer – $13.61m Cap Hold]
The Boston Celtics had numerous offers for Smart at the trade deadline and opted to hang on to him. That bodes well for him staying in Boston beyond this season; the question becomes does another team test Boston’s taste for luxury tax?
Smart seems to be a player that will get offers; the question is will anyone offer more than the $13.6 million cap hold?
It is going to be hard to pry Smart out of Boston at value—it’s going to take an offer sheet that’s more than Boston will match, which means something in the $12-$14 million per year range on a multi-year deal.
With Celtics guard Kyrie Irving’s future a little uncertain (Irving is eligible for a contract extension this summer) would the Celtics be wise to let Smart leave before getting an answer from Irving?
If there is a player on the list that reasonably could be elsewhere next season, it might be Smart, but that seems far from certain.
Julius Randle – Los Angeles Lakers
[$5.56m Qualifying Offer – $12.44m Cap Hold]
Randle’s future is squarely tied to the Lakers pursuit of marquee free agents. While there is little doubt Randle has emerged as a promising young star, the Lakers are going to have a hard time clearing the necessary cap space to pursue two max-level free agents and hang onto Randle’s Bird Rights.
While Randle’s $5.56m qualifying offer is an easy number for the Lakers, it’s his $12.44 million cap hold that handicaps things. Unless the Lakers can find a way to jettison the lingering contract of forward Luol Deng without taking anything meaningful back against the cap, it’s going to be nearly impossible to get to two max slots and retain Randle.
There are scenarios where it becomes possible to add players and retain Randle; it would simply require the added player to not receive max level money.
The danger for the Lakers is that there appear to be two early suitors for Randle that may force the Lakers’ hand. The Dallas Mavericks have had an eye on Randle for some time and is the team most expect to be on Randle’s doorstep at 12:01 am on July 1.
Another team to watch is the Sacramento Kings. After dumping George Hill’s contract off on the Cavaliers, the Kings could have some cap money, and Randle is a name linked to them as well.
The easy answer for the Lakers is to simply lock Randle up early, which means the front office will have to ask for quick decisions from would-be free agents before another team puts an offer in front of Randle he is willing to sign and start the clock on the matching rights of restricted free agency.
Elfrid Payton – Phoenix Suns
[$4.53m Qualifying Offer – $9.99m Cap Hold]
The Orlando Magic dealt Payton to the Suns at the trade deadline after finding very little interest from other teams. The Suns, according to sources, were high on Payton and wanted to the opportunity to try out the fit before committing.
So far, Payton has been productive enough to think the Suns may hang on to him.
The wrinkle to watch in all of this is what could be as many as three first-round draft picks (most insiders believe one of those later first round picks is going to be traded), and a boatload of free agent money.
Assuming the Suns don’t find a better option in the draft, there is a good chance Payton is back in Phoenix on a new deal, but its unlikely the Suns are going to break the bank for Payton – meaning he might be poachable.
Zach LaVine – Chicago Bulls
[$4.42m Qualifying Offer – $9.60m Cap Hold]
There has been a lot of talk in Chicago about how much Zach LaVine is really going to command. Given the lack of cap money around the NBA and the Bulls ability to match anything reasonable, LaVine may be in a tough spot if he is expecting the marketplace to boost his deal.
Sources close to the situation said it would take a whopper of an offer for the Bulls not to match. The NBA has cautioned teams about declaring their willingness to match offers publicly, but Bulls sources that would comment on the subject found it laughable that LaVine wouldn’t be back in Chicago on a new contract, the question remaining is what’s the amount that gets it done?
Jusuf Nurkić – Portland Trail Blazers
[$4.14m Qualifying Offer – $8.84m Cap Hold]
It seems for some time that maybe the Blazers had cooled on Nurkić, as they explored trades for other centers for several weeks leading up to the trade deadline. In the end, the Blazers held firm and have gone a crazy run—enough to suggest that Nurkić might actually get a new deal in Portland.
The big issue facing both the Blazers and Nurkić is their proximity to the luxury tax. It’s possible the Blazers look to shed some contract money this offseason to clear up their cap, but with both Nurkić and fellow potential restricted free agent Shabazz Napier looking for new deals, the long-term may impact the short-term.
Blazers ownership has never had a problem spending money, but once a team rolls over the luxury tax line, it becomes harder and more expensive to make trades.
Given how well Nurkić has played (especially recently) it seems unlikely that Portland doesn’t retain him, especially considering how low both his qualifying offer and his cap hold are, the Blazers are in the driver seat on a new deal.
Rodney Hood – Cleveland Cavaliers
[$3.47m Qualifying Offer – $7.16m Cap Hold]
The prevailing thought around the Cavaliers is that Hood is not a rental. The Cavs made the deal to acquire Hood not only for the short term, but to re-sign him this summer.
While the future of LeBron James is going to weigh on every decision the Cavs make, the belief if even if James leaves,Hood is a good future piece to build around making his next deal something of a formality.
There is a window in which another team could try to poach Hood with a hefty offer, but given where the Cavs are cap wise, there is zero reason not to match, even a crazy offer.
As some on this list, the money paid to Hood is really only available to him, as the Cavs won’t get anywhere near cap space in the next couple of years.
Clint Capela – Houston Rockets
[$3.42m Qualifying Offer – $7.0m Cap Hold]
The cap hold on Capela makes it nearly impossible that he won’t be back in Houston. While the Rockets do have big dreams of what could be possible this summer, they can make all of their moves and still exceed the cap to re-sign Capela.
There is always the chance a team tries to force the Rockets hand and timing, but at the end of the day, just because a team makes an offer doesn’t mean Capela has to accept it.
It’s pretty safe to say the only uncertainty on Capela is how many years and how many dollars.
There are other players who could be restricted free agents based on being a second-round pick, being undrafted or simply signing shorter-term deals. As we get closer and closer to free agency, we’ll look at these in more depth.
Until then you can check out all the 2018-29 Free Agents here.
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NBA Daily: Trail Blazers Come Up Short and Now Search For Answers
The Portland Trail Blazers were swept in the first round of the Playoffs and now face tough questions, writes James Blancarte.
The playoffs have been a wild ride so far. On Sunday, all three Eastern Conference playoff games were exciting matches that featured star players stepping up in the clutch. As a result, each series is tied up, two games each. The other game of the day featured the San Antonio Spurs, who stayed in control and never once allowed the Golden State Warriors to take the lead. The Spurs managed to get a win against the defending champs despite missing their best player and now their head coach indefinitely.
For the Portland Trail Blazers, there was no such Game 4 turnaround. In fact, with the Spurs win, the Trail Blazers have the lamentable distinction of being the only team to be swept in the first round of the playoffs. This is just one way to describe how disappointing and surprising this playoff series loss to the New Orleans Pelicans was for Portland. Many NBA observers and Pelicans fans were quick to point out that every ESPN NBA personality chose the Trail Blazers to win the series, as did select writers of the Basketball Insiders team.
The Trail Blazers’ players and front office also made it clear how surprised they were at the result. Forward Evan Turner shared his surprise.
“Obviously finishing so quickly wasn’t definitely the plan and to a certain extent it was shocking,” Turner said.
General Manager Neil Olshey chimed in as well.
“Nobody expected [the playoff sweep] to happen. It did. We had our chances in Game 1, we had our chances in Game 2. Clearly Game 3 was a setback,” Olshey stated when describing his surprise at how the series ended. “Stunned, I think disappointed.”
Credit should be given to the Pelicans and their ability to fully harness their talent and impose their will in the series. Turner was effusive in praising the talent and ability of the Pelicans.
“Unlocked Jrue is pretty dangerous and we all see how Rondo plays. He’s a homerun hitter but he is always solid. He can mess around. He’ll get two or three triple doubles. Anthony Davis is a problem,” Turner said.
When asked how he felt about the playoff exit, starting center Jusuf Nurkic stated that he is beyond disappointed.
“I mean, the way I finish the season, I feel shame. The way we have a season, like a team and group, and being in position to be third in the West, and finish like this, is not good,” Nurkic stated. “It’s not something you should be proud of, because all you do through the year, fight for playoff and to be in position to have a good postseason.”
Despite the early exit, many within the organization were quick to highlight that they continue to see the regular season in a positive light, including Head Coach Terry Stotts.
“I thought we had a very good regular season, I thought we had a very disappointing end of the season,” Stotts stated.
Damian Lillard shared a similar sentiment when reflecting on the season as a whole.
“I think I’ll always remember the way [the season] ended. But I won’t forget the kind of season we had. You can’t ignore the fact we won a division title in a division where there was some great teams,” Lillard stated. “We came out on top.”
Still, the success of the regular season makes the playoff result that much harder to grasp and deal with for some. Nurkic again didn’t hold back when comparing the success of the regular season with the team’s playoff failure.
“Very surprised,” Nurkic stated. “You definitely didn’t see the team who we are in the playoffs.”
Explaining why the Trail Blazers came up short against the Pelicans is no easy task. Clearly Portland’s attempt to feature its two premiere guards failed as the Pelicans were able to clamp down on Lillard and McCollum effectively in each game. Complicating matters further was the inability of the Trail Blazers to effectively utilize Nurkic on both ends of the court. However, there was at least some praise to be heaped on the backup bigs, Zach Collins and Ed Davis.
“I think Zach played really well for us,” Olshey stated. “He had an impact defensively.”
Also, Al-Farouq Aminu was able to do his part as an acceptable defensive option against Davis while spreading the floor with his outside shooting
Regardless, Turner shared his assessment that the team failed to have an adequate game plan for a scenario where their two best players are neutralized.
“One thing that may help, it’s no jabs or anything, but building the identity outside of our two strong scorers,” Turned stated. “[W]e sometimes go downhill when a team fully focuses on a lot of attention on our stars […] But I think we might need certain plays, certain structures that kind of prepare just in case that occurs.”
With their postseason concluded, the Trail Blazers are suddenly left trying to answer questions with no easy answers. Who, if anyone, is to blame for what happened? So far, many head coaches have been let go and unsurprisingly some speculation has turned toward Coach Stotts. Stotts, when asked, focused on the team and deflected any analysis of his performance.
“I’m not going to evaluate the job I did,” Stotts said.
Lillard, on the other hand, was effusive in his praise of his coach.
“Coach Stotts has done a great job from day one. We’ve been in the playoffs five years straight,” Lillard said.
For now, there does not appear to be strong rumblings about Stotts. With the offseason just beginning for the team there is still time to reflect and assess what went wrong. Additionally, the team has to resolve what to do regarding its own free agents. No name looms larger than Nurkic, who despite his poor showing, represents one of the team’s top talents and expressed his guarded optimism regarding a return.
“I want to be here, it’s no secret,” Nurkic stated when asked if he wants an extension in Portland. “Yes, definitely.”
Nurkic ended the thought by stating, a bit ominously, that he did his part and a deal may or may not get worked out.
“My agent and people here are going to figure out the rest, or not,” Nurkic said.
Complicating the desire to retain Nurkic is the team’s financial situation as the team is currently over the cap and under obligation to center Meyers Leonard, who has struggled to stay in the rotation and is earning roughly $21.8 million over the next two years.
“It’s our job to be measured and not to overreact. [Because] when you overreact is when you make mistakes,” Olshey stated.
Lillard was quick to emphatically shut down the notion of splitting up him and McCollum when asked if that would be a good idea.
“I mean, I don’t agree with it. I think it’s that simple,” Lillard declared.
When asked what the team plans to do going forward, Olshey expressed optimism but tried again to pay credit to the season’s effort overall.
“We’re going to do everything we can to upgrade the roster as we always do but we also aren’t going to lose sight of the success throughout the course of the season,” Olshey said.
“I don’t have all the answers for you today,” Olshey surmised. “A lot of times you don’t know where your help is coming from.”
The Problem With ‘Championship Or Bust’
Should an NBA Title be the only measuring stick when we’re talking about a team’s success?
In this day and age, there’s a constant need for instant gratification. It goes for everything, really, but especially for sports.
Before the 2017-18 NBA season kicked off, the general outlook on the league was that the regular season would be a waste of time. People dubbed the Golden State Warriors as clear-cut repeat champions. Other then that franchise, there were maybe one or two others that could put up a fight with such a juggernaut.
While that story has yet to play out, others are developing quickly.
The all-of-a-sudden dangerous New Orleans Pelicans are the only ball club to have advanced to the second round of the playoffs as the sixth seed in the Western Conference. LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers are deadlocked in a tied series with an Indiana Pacers team that everybody seemed to believe was lottery-bound before the year began.
After falling nine games under .500 in late January, the Utah Jazz have caught fire and are up two games to one against the league’s reigning league MVP and a re-constructed Oklahoma City Thunder roster. We’d be remiss to leave out the sensational play of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid as the Philadelphia 76ers continue to show how dominant they’ve been in a hard-hitting affair with a gritty Miami Heat bunch.
The start to this postseason trumps last season’s already. There is a competitive fire within the majority of these encounters. It’s all on the line to prove who will be the best of the best.
And having said that, there can only be one that takes home the Larry O’Brien trophy.
One. That’s it. In the last 18 years, there have been a total of eight different organizations that have earned the right to call themselves champions. All things considered, it’s not that many.
But there’s a giant misconception about parity in the NBA that needs to be thwarted.
This league is filled with talent, top to bottom. Just like in any sport, you have the basement dwellers still trying to right the ship. Whether it be coaching, injuries, or inexperience—they’re attempting to find their way. That’s why those players are sitting at home in late April.
Then there are those who are not merely spectators, but are involved in the remaining field of 15 teams (sorry, Portland Trail Blazers). Of course, in their minds, there is a common goal of winning a title, as it should be.
However, is it fair to quantify the success of every one of these franchises simply based on whether they accomplish that goal or not? Heck no.
Are we supposed to just forget about the progress made from end-to-end? What if — hear this out — both teams have talent and one just beat the other?
Building championship basketball takes patience. There has to be some semblance of playoff experience involved. Continuity is a must have. You might not want to hear it, but the postseason is where the seeds are planted, where the understanding of the stage really starts.
There can be a collection of young players who have been teammates for years, but have never taken part in the playoffs before. Sometimes there can be a team that’s full of veterans that have been there, but they may not have played together as a collective unit. Each one of them has a different background in a different setting.
It’s a whole different beast at this point. Some are so naive to see how elevated and intense the environment really is, so they assume a team that loses a few games isn’t championship material. Newsflash: Not one team in the history of the NBA has gone 16-0 in the playoffs.
And then, the ones who fall—whether it be in The Finals, conference finals, or in first two rounds—those organizations didn’t accomplish anything. Wrong, wrong, wrong.
So in this basketball world we live in where everything has to be a 20-point victory with zero losses and it’s “championship or bust” as the measuring stick, take a step back and appreciate the work it took to even get to the postseason.
Win or lose, many of these teams are building towards bigger things in the future. These experiences will make that clear in the years to come.
NBA DAILY: Who’s the Next Donovan Mitchell?
Donovan Mitchell provided elite value at the back end of the lottery. Who might that player be this summer?
The entire reason that so many non-playoff teams worked so diligently to blow their seasons was to get the best odds possible for the first overall selection in the 2018 NBA Draft. Watching LeBron James (a former first overall draft pick) do what he’s done to the league for the last 15 years, the desire to land a top pick is understandable. Ben Simmons, the heir apparent and likely Rookie of the Year, also was a first overall draft pick a couple of seasons ago.
In fact, of the 38 former first overall picks dating back to 1980, 28 of them would evolve into All-Stars, and it seems like only a matter of time before Simmons is added to that list, too. A higher percentage of top picks have been named All-Stars than any other slot in the draft. Numbers don’t lie. There is no pick more valuable than the very first one.
Donovan Mitchell is good, too. Like, really good. He’s so good that there’s just as strong an argument for him as this season’s Rookie of the Year as there is for Simmons. Mitchell, though, was not a first overall pick. He was picked 13th, at the back end of the lottery.
He isn’t alone in landing elite value for teams picking outside of the lottery’s top half. Devin Booker was picked 13th in 2015. Giannis Antetokounmpo was the 15th selection in 2013. In 2011, Klay Thompson was picked 11th, while Kawhi Leonard was chosen with the 15th pick that same year. Paul George went 10th overall in 2010.
In other words, there are plenty of really good prospects every summer to give late-lottery teams hope. They might not generate the same hype as the guys vying for that top overall selection, but they’re also clearly a lot better than the tiers of players that start coming off the board in the 20s and 30s. All-Stars lurk in the 10-to-15 range of the draft, especially in a loaded class like the one we’re looking at this summer.
That begs the question: who is this year’s Donovan Mitchell?
Here are three possibilities:
Back in November, a series of unfortunate circumstances in a game against Minnesota led to a mass ejection of Alabama players that resulted in just three players being allowed to play the final ten minutes. Sexton was one of those three players and led a Crimson Tide rally despite the lopsided Minnesota power play. ‘Bama outscored the Gophers 30-22 in those final 10 minutes despite being down two players, and Sexton finished the game with 40 points. That’s how good he is.
Of course, he could slip in this draft if only because there are so many flashier names ahead of him. It appears as though seven players (DeAndre Ayton, Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson, Marin Bagley, Michael Porter, Mo Bamba and Trae Young) likely will be drafted before him, which puts him in a category with guys like Mikal Bridges, Wendell Carter, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Miles Bridges, and Kevin Knox. Sexton probably will fall somewhere in that range, which means he would fall somewhere between the eighth and 13th pick.
He is competitive, charismatic and incredibly driven, so there’s a really good chance he does well in interviews and workouts and shows how elite he is. On the other hand, if he falls to the Sixers or Hornets or Clippers, some non-tanking team could end up with one of the biggest stars of the draft.
Coming into his sophomore season, Bridges was considered one of the top NBA prospects in college basketball, and while that is still true to a certain extent, his stock dropped a bit this past season while several players—including his teammate Jaren Jackson, Jr.—saw their own stocks rise.
Despite a minor loss in momentum, Bridges is one of the most NBA-ready players projected to be selected in the lottery. He’s still young enough to have a high ceiling, but he’s older and more physically mature than a lot of the other players vying to be drafted in his neck of the pecking order. He does nearly everything well, from ball handling to rebounding to shooting, and he can play both ends of the floor. His athleticism is his calling card, and that added to everything else he does well makes him a lock for some measure of NBA success.
He has his flaws, but he’s probably an All-Rookie First Teamer that will be selected after ten players that aren’t. That makes him a potential steal on the back-end of the lottery.
This time last year, Porter was a 17-year-old kid deciding whether or not to reclassify and play at the University of Missouri with his older brother Michael Porter, Jr. and under his father Michael Porter, Sr., who is a member of the coaching staff there. Obviously big bro is a high lottery pick, but the younger sibling was the 11th rated prospect in his high school class (the one with Zion Williamson and R.J. Barrett) before reclassifying.
He has declared for this summer’s draft but hasn’t yet hired an agent. If he stays in, he’ll be the youngest player in the draft, and mid-first round is where teams start gambling on the uber-young players with mountains of potential rather than older, more proven college players.
In Porter’s case, that could mean a mid-to-late first-round team ends up with a tremendous bargain, even if it takes him a few years to grow into himself. He’s 6-foot-11 but is incredibly smart and well-rounded on offense. He shoots threes (he hit 110 of them as a freshman at Mizzou), but he’s know for his vision and passing more than anything. That’s a modern-day stretch-four or stretch-five if ever there was one, and getting him a year before his time could be a way for a team to steal a deal in the middle of the first round.
With the playoffs in full swing, most observers are focused in on the battles for conference supremacy. For many of the NBA’s other teams, though, the draft preparation process has begun.
In short order, we’ll see which teams end up snagging the next Donovan Mitchell.