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NBA Daily: The Trade Deadline Should Be Fun

With the February 7th NBA Trade Deadline approaching, things are getting interesting on the trade front.

Steve Kyler

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The Deadline Should Be Fun

The February 7th, 2019 NBA Trade Deadline is just around the corner, and given the number of high profile names said to be available, it could make this one of the more interesting deadlines to watch.

Historically, there are usually 10 to 14 deadline transactions per year, with most of them being cap-related moves to shed an ending contract or to move off unwanted players or contracts. It’s been pretty rare to see a large number of named players dealt at the deadline; those moves usually happen before the 11th hour. The fact that there are so many All-Stars or would-be All-Stars being talked about in the marketplace could make this year’s deadline something of an outlier.

While the trade market is always fluid, here are some of the names to watch over the next six or seven days as teams try and make sense of what’s a real asking price and what is simply fishing for a deal.

Anthony Davis

The news that New Orleans star Anthony Davis has informed the Pelicans he will not sign a contract extension and has asked to be traded shouldn’t be too surprising. Typically, when a player changes agents before free agency, that usually signals that player isn’t happy, and that’s turned out to be true for the Pelicans.

The Pelicans have cried foul to the league office on the whole ordeal, mainly because there is a sense internally that not only was Davis tampered with, but that his representation may have killed the team’s ability to extract a good return. The Pelicans seem to believe that his agent is responsible for floating the idea that Davis will walk to the LA Lakers when he hits unrestricted free agency.

The Pelicans have issued statements saying they will deal Davis on their terms and timing, but there is a real sense among NBA teams that if a team offered a blow-the-doors-off package, it could get Davis at the deadline. Despite the Pelicans’ stance that they would prefer to explore deals in the offseason when they can do more around the draft or in July in free agency, they have opened a window for a deal now.

There are a few teams to watch. It’s believed the Lakers will make an all-in offer for Davis, as will the Knicks and Raptors.

A dark horse in all of it might be the Portland Trail Blazers. Leagues source have labeled the Blazers as being aggressive in trying to find one more star-level guy to pair with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Given the youth, ending contracts and future picks the Blazers could offer, they could be an interesting option, especially if it does not cost Lillard or McCollum.

A New York Knicks deal is said to be centered on their 2019 first round draft pick and a ton of ending contracts and upside young guys.

The prevailing thought is, barring something silly being offered in the coming days, the Pelicans are more likely to wait out a Boston Celtics offer after Kyrie Irving opts out of his Designated Rookie contract extension. The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement prohibits a team from trading for two Designated Rookie contracts as a means to close salary cap loopholes.

Davis can’t be traded to Boston until Irving is out of his deal which is expected in July.

The Celtics are believed by most league insiders to have the best package of players and future picks to offer.

The Pelicans are absolutely open for business on Davis and others; the question is will anyone offer enough value to get the Pelicans off the dime before 3 pm EST next Thursday.

The Memphis Grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies have kicked the tires on a number of deals for both center Marc Gasol and point guard Mike Conley. The prevailing thoughts from NBA teams that have engaged the Grizzlies is that it is going to take a big deal to get either marquee player, and taking on Chandler Parson’s contract might be a requirement of any eventual deal.

There are a couple of teams to watch specific to Gasol, the top being the Portland Trail Blazers. Sources close to the situation labeled the Blazers as the more likely team to land Gasol if the Grizzlies do a deal, but there was not a sense that anything was close enough to call. Gasol himself has talked about the San Antonio Spurs, and there seems to be some interest on the Spurs’ part in making a deal. But it’s unclear what the Spurs could or would offer to consummate a deal. Gasol has a player option for next season worth $25.5 million.

Conely seems to be the Grizzly that could garner the biggest return, especially given that he is under contract for one more guaranteed year before his $34.5 million team option year in 2020.

The Orlando Magic and the Phoenix Suns were said to have explored a Conley deal. It does not seem like either took it very far, although that could change in the coming weeks.

Both teams have the right combination of young guys, ending contracts and future draft picks to construct a package for Conley, and both could reasonably take on the $24.1 million left on Parson’s deal this year and carry the ending $25.1 million for next year if they didn’t look at buyouts.

The Grizzlies seem motivated to make a deal. The big challenge in any deal is the difficulty in doing three/four player for one deals in-season, as those kinds of deals tend to be easier in the offseason when teams have open roster spots or can carry extra players during the summer.

Portland Is A Team To Watch

With the passing of Blazers’ owner Paul Allen, there was a sense that the days of the Blazers wheeling and dealing would likely be over, however more and more NBA teams label the Blazers as the team to watch at the deadline.

The Blazers currently sit in fourth place in the West and have won seven of their last 10. There is at least a desire by management to explore what they can add to push them legitimately into the championship discussion, because, like other teams, they understand organizationally they are on the clock with Damian Lillard.

The Blazers have a bunch of mid-dollar contracts to offer in trades, most ending after next season. While the Blazers don’t have ending money now, they seem to have a continued appetite to take on money if it pushes them into the NBA elite.

The Blazers are said to have eyes on both Anthony Davis and Marc Gasol; the question is can they cobble together a package to get a deal done that doesn’t include Lillard of CJ McCollum?

The Knicks Have Been Active

The New York Knicks have been trying to find deals to move off big man Enes Kanter and guard Courtney Lee. That’s no big secret. They have been looking for some time with little to no interest that didn’t include the Knicks taking back salary, something they are not open to.

The Knicks have also recently opened the door on deals involving guards Frank Ntilikina and Trey Burke. According to teams that have talked with the Knicks about these players, it seems both could be gone by the deadline.

The Knicks are also one of the teams gearing up for a big offer for Anthony Davis, said to be built around its unprotected first-round draft pick in the 2019 draft, which – if the lottery holds true to the standings – could be the second or third pick.

There is a sense that Davis would be open to an extension in New York, which is why dangling an unprotected pick that could be a top overall selection would make sense.

The Knicks are absolutely a team to watch at the deadline; they seem to be motivated to make a couple of deals, even if they miss out on Davis.

Is Orlando A Seller?

The Orlando Magic have waffled on what they really are as a team all year. Some nights, they look like a playoff team and others, a lottery team. With the Magic sitting at 20-30 with roughly a week to go before the deadline it seems far more likely the Magic sell off their ending contracts than try and add.

The plan all along in Orlando was to develop around Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac and rookie Mo Bamba. The hope was the existing core would be good enough to get the young guys some playoff experience and get the franchise back into the post-season in hopes of luring in a top-level free agent guard.

With each passing week, the odds of a playoff berth seem to be dwindling, and most teams that have been after the Magic’s veterans feel like the Magic will be sellers, specifically forward Terrence Ross and Jonathon Simmons.

The X-Factors for the Magic are center Nikola Vucevic and swingman Evan Fournier. It’s hard to envision both in the Magic’s longer term, but there is a sense that the Magic doesn’t want to part with either unless it returned an All-Star level talent.

The Magic have been very active over the last few weeks gauging the market on what they can do, so there is a belief the Magic are going to be sellers. The question is, which guys get sold off?

Will The Lakers Deal?

The LA Lakers’ dream scenario has arrived, Anthony Davis is available, and they are not going to sit this out.

Sources close to the situation are mirroring what’s being reported, that the Lakers are prepared to make a monster offer for Davis that could include anyone not named LeBron James.

The Lakers value a lot of their young guys and wouldn’t include everything they have in a deal for Davis, but there is a belief that the Pelicans could have their choice of three of the Lakers’ young guys to make a Davis deal before next Thursday.

The Lakers have been active in looking at options before the Davis trade request, but with the Pelicans now listening, the Lakers are not going to mess around according to sources close to the situation.

The problem for the Lakers is they can’t force the Pelicans to take a deal; they can only make an attractive offer.

The Pelicans have been direct that it’s going to take something major for them to consider a deal now, and the Lakers understand they have to be aggressive if they want Davis now.

Basketball Insiders will roll out our annual NBA Trade Deadline Diary on Tuesday February 5th. We’ll log and track every rumor and every deal in the all the way up to the 3pm EST deadline, so stay tuned.

More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @TommyBeer, @jblancartenba, @SpinDavies, @JamesB_NBA, @MattJohnNBA, @DrewMaresca, @JordanHicksNBA, and @Ben__Nadeau .

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NBA Daily: They Guessed Wrong

Matt John reflects on some of the key decisions that were made last summer, and how their disappointing results hurt both team outlooks and players’ legacies.

Matt John

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It doesn’t sound possible, but did you know that the crazy NBA summer of 2019 was, in fact, over a year ago? Wildly, in any normal, non-pandemic season, it all would have been over three months ago and, usually, media days would be right around the corner, but not this time. The 2019-20 NBA season is slated to end sometime in early to mid-October, so the fact that the last NBA off-season was over a year ago hasn’t really dawned on anyone yet. Craziest of all, even though there will still be an offseason, there technically won’t be any summer.

Coronavirus has really messed up the NBA’s order. Of course, there are much worse horrors that COVID-19 has inflicted upon the world – but because of what it’s done to the NBA, let’s focus on that and go back to the summer of 2019. It felt like an eternity, but the Golden State Warriors’ three-year reign had finally reached its end. The Toronto Raptors’ victory over the tyranny that was the Hamptons Five – as battered as they were – made it feel like order had been restored to the NBA. There was more to it than that though.

Klay Thompson’s and Kevin Durant’s season-ending injuries, along with the latter skipping town to join Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn meant two things.

1. Golden State was down for the count
2. Brooklyn’s time wasn’t coming until next year.

A one-year window was open. Even if neither Golden State nor Brooklyn posed the same threat that the former did when it had Kevin Durant, those were two contenders out of commission. If there was a time to go all in, it was in 2019.

Milwaukee certainly seemed to go all in. For the most part.  Malcolm Brogdon’s departure seemed a little odd since he was arguably their best non-Giannis playmaker when they were in crunch time. Not to mention there was nothing really stopping the Bucks from keeping him except for money. Detractors will call out Milwaukee for electing to cheap out by not keeping Brogdon and hence, avoiding the luxury tax. However, there’s more to it than that.

Milwaukee thought it had enough with the core it had on its roster. Coming off the best season they had put up since the eighties, they believed the franchise built the right team to contend. There was an argument that keeping Brogdon may have been overkill with their guard depth – let’s not forget that Donte DiVincenzo did a solid job in Brogdon’s role as the backup facilitator. This would have been more defensible had it not been for Milwaukee picking the wrong guy to let go. That was the indefensible part- electing to keep Eric Bledsoe over Brogdon.

Bledsoe wasn’t necessarily a bad investment. No one’s complaining about an almost 15 point average on 47/34/79 splits or playing individual defense tight enough to get named on the All-Defensive second team. By all accounts, Bledsoe earns his keep. That is until the playoffs. Bledsoe’s postseason woes have been a weight ever since he first entered Milwaukee, and this postseason was more of the same.

Bledsoe’s numbers dwindled to just 11.7 points on 39/25/81 splits, and Milwaukee getting ousted in five games at the hands of Miami made his struggles stand out even more than it had ever been. Bledsoe may be the better athlete and the better defender, but Brogdon’s all-around offensive savvy and his only slight dropoff defensively from Brogdon would have made him a bit more reliable.

Milwaukee guessed wrong when they opted to extend Bledsoe before the postseason last year when they could have waited until that very time to evaluate who to keep around. Now they face a hell of a lot more questions than they did at the end of last season – questions that may have been avoided had they made the right choice.

Now they could have kept both of them, yes, but it’s not totally unreasonable to think that maybe their approach with the luxury tax would have worked and maybe they would still be in the postseason right now had they gone with the homegrown talent. And just maybe, there wouldn’t be nearly as much of this Greek Freak uncertainty.

The Houston Rockets can relate. They got bruised up by a team that everyone thought Houston had the edge on going into the series and then crushed by the Lakers. Now, Mike D’Antoni is gone. The full-time small ball experiment likely did not work out. Since the Rockets emptied most of their assets to bring in Russell Westbrook and Robert Covington, there may not be a route in which they can become better than they presently are.

The mistake wasn’t trading for Russell Westbrook. The mistake was trading Chris Paul.

To be fair, most everybody severely overestimated Chris Paul’s decline. He’s not among the best of the best anymore, but he’s still pretty darn close. He deserved his All-NBA second team selection as well as finishing No. 7 overall in MVP voting. OKC had no business being as good as they were this season, and Paul was the driving force as to why.

For all we know, the previously-assumed tension between Chris Paul and James Harden would have made its way onto the court no matter what. Even so, Houston’s biggest obstacle in the Bay Area had crumbled. If they had just stayed the course, maybe they’re still in the postseason too.

To their credit, none of this may have happened had it not been for the Kawhi Leonard decision. Had he chosen differently, the Thunder never blow it up, and Houston might have very well been the favorite in the Western Conference. Instead, the Rockets took a step back from being in the title discussion to dark horse. But at least they can take pride knowing that they weren’t expected to win it all – the Clippers can’t.

Seeing the Clippers fall well short expectations begs the question if they too got it wrong. The answer is, naturally: of course not. They may have paid a hefty price for Paul George, but the only way they were getting Kawhi Leonard – one of the best players of his generation – was if PG-13 came in the package. As lofty as it was, anyone would have done the same thing if they were in their shoes. They didn’t get it wrong. Kawhi did.

On paper, the Clippers had the most talented roster in the entire league. It seemed like they had every hole filled imaginable. Surrounding Leonard and George was three-point shooting, versatility, a productive second unit, an experienced coach – you name it. There was nothing stopping them from breaking the franchise’s long-lasting curse. Except themselves.

Something felt off about them. They alienated opponents. They alienated each other. At times, they played rather lackadaisically, like the title had already been signed, sealed, and delivered to them. The media all assumed they’d cut the malarkey and get their act together – but that moment never really came. They had their chances to put Denver away, but even if they had, after seeing their struggles to beat them – and to be fair Dallas too – would their day of destiny with the Lakers have really lived up to the hype?

Even if it was never in the cards, one can’t help but wonder what could have happened had Kawhi chosen to stay with the team he won his second title with.

Toronto was the most impressive team in this league this season. They still managed to stay at the top of the east in spite of losing an all-timer like Leonard. That team had every component of a winner except a superstar. They had the right culture for a championship team. Just not the right talent. The Clippers were the exact opposite. They had the right talent for a championship team but not the right culture. That’s why the Raptors walked away from the postseason feeling proud of themselves for playing to their full potential while the Clippers writhed in disappointment and angst over their future.

In the end, everyone mentioned here may ultimately blame what happened to their season on the extenuating circumstances from the pandemic. The Bucks’ chemistry never fully returned when the Bubble started. Contracting COVID and dealing with quad problems prevented Westbrook from reviving the MVP-type player he was before the hiatus. As troubling as the Clippers had played, the extra time they would have had to work things out in a normal season was taken away from them.

For all we know, next year will be a completely different story. The Rockets, Bucks, and Kawhi may ultimately have their faith rewarded for what they did in the summer of 2019 – but that will only be mere speculation until the trio can change the story.

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NBA

Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards

Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.

David Yapkowitz

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We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.

The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.

With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.

The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.

Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old

Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.

He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.

Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.

Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old

Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.

He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.

Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.

Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old

Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.

He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.

One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.

Honorable Mentions:
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old

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NBA

Looking Toward the Draft: Small Forwards

Basketball Insiders’ examination of the 2020 draft class continues with a look at the small forwards.

Drew Maresca

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It was announced on Wednesday that the NBA Draft would be delayed from Oct. 16 to Nov. 18. The rationale is that the extra month gives the league and its players association more time to negotiate changes to the CBA. It also grants teams additional time to procure information on prospects and allows the NBA to establish regional virtual combines. But nothing is set in stone.

Still, draft prep must continue. This year’s draft class has more question marks than usual – which was complicated by the cancellation of the NCAA tournament (along with the NIT and a number of conference tournaments). There are incredibly skilled offensive players with limited offensive upside and jaw-droppingly talented defenders with incomplete offensive packages. But if (recent) history serves as a guide, there will be a few guys who make an immediate impact – and some of them very well could be small forwards.

The small forward position is key for the modern NBA. Want proof? Survey the league and you’ll find that most – if not all – contenders have an elite small forward – Milwaukee, Los Angeles (both), Boston, Miami, Toronto.

But the list of can’t miss small forward prospects feels smaller than usual. Scanning the numerous legitimate mock drafts (including our own by Steve Kyler), it becomes apparent that we lack a consensus on which small forwards will be selected (and in what order) after the top 3 or 4. Can any of them grow into a star? Maybe. Maybe not. But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s identify what the top few bring to the table.

Deni Avdija, Israel – 19 years old

Avdija is a relatively well-rounded prospect who’s played professionally since he was 16. He boasts good height (6-foot-9) and uses it effectively to shoot over and pass around opposing defenses. Further, Avdija is an exceptional playmaker and he’s incredibly confident, enabling him to take chances many players would be apprehensive trying. Avdija is a high-IQ player. And what’s more, he’s a surprisingly strong defender. His height and above-average athleticism allow him to block shots, and he’s more physical than you’d expect him to be.

But there are drawbacks to Avdija, too. His main issue is around shooting. Avdija shot only 28% in the EuroLeague last season, and he shot only 60% from the free-throw line. Further, while he’s a decent athlete, he’ll struggle to secure a role in the NBA. He’s going to need to add speed to stay with modern wings, and he’ll also have to bulk up to bang with power forwards.

Still, Avdija’s upside is alluring. He’s only 19, and his smarts, confidence and grittiness should provide him cover for much of his rookie season. Avdija should be the first small forward off of the board.

Isaac Okoro, Auburn – 19 years old

Avdija might be the flashier name currently, but Okoro will give him a run for his money in terms of which small forward is first off the board. Okoro is built like a traditional NBA wing; he’s 6-foot-6 with good strength packed in his muscular frame (215 lbs). Okoro finishes well around the rim and he converts well through contact. He’s an exceptional athlete who excels catching the ball on the move. Like Avdija, Okoro has the poise and composure of a more experienced player. Also, like Avdija, Okoro looked the part of a high IQ player in his lone season at Auburn.

And while all that is great, the main allure of Okoro is his defense. He’s a fairly advanced defender given his age, and his athleticism and timing make him an effective weak side help defender.

While Okoro’s raw abilities are exquisite, his refined offensive skills leave something to be desired. Okoro shot 28 percent on three-point field goals and he struggled from the free-throw line (67.2 percent). His mid-range jump shot also needs work, and he struggles in isolation situations.

If Okoro can hone his offensive game, he could grow into an All-Star. He has the ability to guard multiple positions, and his strength and athleticism give him a leg up on most prospects. But even if he doesn’t become an All-Star, he possesses a fairly high floor given his defensive abilities — and the guy definitely fills the state sheet (12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, .9 steals and .9 blocks). He has lockdown defender potential and he’ll put his stamp on the game beginning on night one.

Devin Vassell, Florida State – 20 years old

Vassell played two seasons at Florida State, but he came into his own in his Sophomore season. He averaged 12.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. He shot a more than respectable 41.5% on three-point attempts, and he demonstrated a strong stroke from the free-throw line (73.8 percent) and on two-point field goal attempts (53.2).

Vassell is an extremely athletic leaper, who can rise up for a highlight dunk and sprint down the floor with ease. He has good body control and demonstrated a strong mid-range game, especially his step-back jump shot. But Vassell must generate more free throws through decisive moves to the hoop, which would be bolstered by a more muscular frame. Additionally, he must improve his ball-handling to get more from isolations.

Vassell will have an adjustment period in terms of scoring the ball at the next level. Fortunately, his defense and shooting should get him by. If he can bulk up and improve his handling, Vassell could grow into a serious player.

Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt – 20 years old

Nesmith probably has a lower floor than any of the other top small forward prospects given that he’ll be 21 by the draft. Still, he looked quite good in his Junior year, averaging 23 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game on a scorching 52.2 percent shooting from deep. Nesmith is an incredibly gifted shooter who has impressive range. His ability to catch-and-shoot and create space with fakes makes him a promising prospect – for the right team.

Nesmith is a high IQ player who uses his smarts on the defensive end. He’s also quite strong, can get buckets in the open floor and demonstrates above average ball-handling skills, as long as he’s not taking the ball to the hoop.

But there are inherent limitations in Nesmith’s game. He’s doesn’t create for his teammates too effectively and he turns the ball over more frequently than one would like with. Further, Nesmith is plagued by robotic movements that limit his athleticism. His ball-handling breaks down when taking the ball to the rack – something he’ll certainly have to work on in the NBA if he wants to be a versatile scoring threat against the bigger and stronger competition.

Still, Nesmith’s positives give him an excellent chance at being selected in the first round. His range alone will intrigue teams in need of a shooter.

Honorable Mentions:

Saddiq Bey, Villanova – 21 years old

Jaden McDaniels, Washington – 19 years old

Robert Woodard II, Mississippi State – 20 years old

With the uncertainty around small forward prospects, expect to see a revolving door of names enter the discussion after the first four wing prospects are off the board prior to Nov. 16 – assuming the draft is held then. But regardless of how you have them ranked, all of the aforementioned prospects have question marks. But all have had far more time to improve than they would have in years’ past. Let’s hope that shows come next season.

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