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NBA Look Around: 10 Observations From the Start of the Season

Basketball Insiders’ Bobby Krivitsky examines the NBA landscape, sharing 10 observations from a look around the league.

Bobby Krivitsky

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Nearly three weeks into the season, here’s a look around the NBA landscape, with ten observations ranging in impact from having a direct effect on the chase for the Larry O’Brien Trophy, teams who are exceeding or failing to meet expectations, examining the play of some of the league’s top rookies, taking note of milestone accomplishments and much more.

1. The Return of the Slim Reaper

In the Brooklyn Nets’ preseason opener against the Washington Wizards, it quickly became evident Kevin Durant is the same player he was before tearing his Achilles. He was slithering through the defense, stopping on a dime for pull-up jump shots and getting to the rim in a couple of strides.

Then, during a Christmas matchup against the Boston Celtics, Durant erupted for 16 points in the third quarter. He finished with 29 points, helping the Nets earn a 123-95 win. In Brooklyn’s next game, the former MVP poured in a season-high 33 points, en route to a 145-141 victory over the Atlanta Hawks.

The only questions Durant has left to answer are how he’ll hold up as we get deeper into the season, and later, as the Nets advance further into the playoffs. Those questions are matters of durability. In terms of performance, Durant’s playing like an MVP candidate.

2. Joel Embiid, Early-Season MVP

The early-season front runners for MVP are Joel Embiid and Durant. You can certainly argue the latter’s in the lead, but the former is an offensive force who’s also making a compelling opening statement in his case for Defensive Player of the Year. 

Defensive stats are flawed, so it’s best to avoid relying on one or two of them to paint the entire picture of how a team or individual is performing on that end. Yet, across the board, Embiid’s registering numbers that speak glowingly about the impact he’s making defensively. According to Basketball-Reference, Embiid’s yielding the third-fewest points per 100 possessions.

Additionally, he ranks fifth in defensive win shares and eighth in defensive box plus-minus. Embiid’s blocking 1.8 shots per game this season, the seventh-most in the NBA, and he’s corralling 10 defensive rebounds per game, which are the third-most in the league.

Offensively, Embiid’s producing 24.6 points per game while shooting 52.5 percent from the field and averaging nine free-throw attempts per contest, which are the fourth-most in the NBA, and he’s converting them at an 83.3 percent clip. Though the sample size is small, Embiid’s shooting 45.8 percent from beyond the arc while taking a respectable three attempts per game. For the last three years, he’s been a below-average three-point shooter.

What matters more for Embiid’s development and the Philadelphia 76ers’ title chances is his improvement in passing out of double teams in the low post. In previous years, he’s struggled to read where the second defender was coming from or how the defense would subsequently rotate. Last season, he lost confidence his teammates would make opponents pay when he kicked it out to them after drawing two defenders.

Now, Embiid is flanked by Seth Curry, who’s a career 44.9 percent three-point shooter that’s splashing 59.5 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc this season. He’s also showing trust in Danny Green, a career 40 percent three-point shooter that is converting 37.7 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc this season.

This season is in its infancy and the Sixers have mostly feasted on bad teams. But surrounded by players who are well-suited to complement Embiid’s game, he’s playing the best ball of his career, turning in an MVP-caliber performance that’s helped place Philadelphia in a four-way tie atop the NBA standings. For further reading, that’s even why Basketball Insiders’ Drew Maresca is calling to speed up the process.

3. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are Evolving

Jayson Tatum has an impressive ability to get significantly better at weaker parts of his game during the season. Last November, he shot 51.9 percent at the rim, and he took considerable flak for it. The next month, Tatum improved by 11 percent.

Being named an All-Star lifted a weight off Tatum’s shoulders, and his game subsequently soared to new heights. As his scoring average rose to over 25 points per game after receiving that validation, Tatum had to adapt to regularly dealing with double teams; especially, when operating out of the pick-and-roll. 

Here’s an update on how that’s going:

Tatum’s also working on breaking his habit of settling for step-back three-pointers with the game on the line. Fortunately for him, a week after that exact shot clanked off the rim, sealing a 108-107 loss to the Indiana Pacers, Tatum got an opportunity to redeem himself.

As for the other half of Boston’s burgeoning duo, Jaylen Brown, who’s even more impressive off the court than he is on it, continues to maximize his time in the offseason to achieve significant growth every year.

With Kemba Walker injured and Gordon Hayward now on the Charlotte Hornets, the Celtics rely more heavily on Brown to facilitate their offense. He’s risen to the challenge, demonstrating improved handles and better court vision, allowing him to create quality scoring chances for himself and his teammates.

Brown’s averaging 26.3 points per game; shooting 59 percent from inside the arc, while taking 5.7 three-point attempts per game and connecting on 42.1 percent of them. After never dishing out more than 2.1 assists per game in the first four years of his career, the 24-year-old is averaging 3.5 assists per contest to start this season.

4. The Improving New York Knicks

One of Tom Thibodeau’s strengths is he can immediately change the culture of a franchise. In his first season with the Chicago Bulls, the team won 62 games, tying the NBA record for the most wins by a rookie head coach. He was named Coach of the Year, and the Bulls won their first division title since Michael Jordan was on their roster.

In 2018, in his second season with the Minnesota Timberwolves, he helped guide the franchise back to the playoffs for the first time in 14 years.

Fast forward to this season, and while it’s early in the campaign, it’s clear the New York Knicks are reaping the benefits of buying into what Thibs is preaching. 

They beat the Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points and came from behind to earn road wins against the Pacers and the Hawks. Those two victories away from Madison Square Garden, along with their home win over the Utah Jazz, meet NBA.com’s definition of clutch wins, meaning the game was within five points in the final five minutes.

The Knicks performed so well in crunch time of those games, their plus-minus rate in the clutch is seven, which is second-best in the category. 

That is the result of a stingy defense yielding 3.7 points per game in its first three opportunities of the season to play in contests that came down to the wire. Furthermore, New York has yet to allow a point off a turnover, fast break, or surrendered a second-chance basket in the clutch. The Knicks’ late-game success is also a testament to an offense that ranks in the top 10 in crunch-time scoring, averaging 10.7 points in those wins against Indiana, Atlanta and Utah. 

In terms of individual performances, RJ Barrett is averaging 17.3 points per game, and opponents can’t keep him out of the paint, where he’s scoring 55.1 percent of his buckets. Those drives to the paint are often getting Barrett to the foul line – and he’s averaging 5.1 free-throw attempts per game and converting on those opportunities at a 71.7 percent clip.

As for the rest of his game, the former third overall pick is averaging 7.2 rebounds per game, 3.2 assists per contest and he’s contesting 4.6 three-point attempts per game, which ranks fifth in the association, and is a sure-fire way to win over his new head coach.

Barrett’s also forming an effective tandem with Julius Randle:

Speaking of Randle, he is playing like an All-Star, averaging 22.6 points, 12 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game, which is a testament to him passing up shots to play a more unselfish brand of basketball. Randle’s also exerting more energy defensively, limiting opponents to 105 points per 100 possessions. The sample size is small right now, New York has played nine games, but his defensive rating is lower than it has ever been in his career.

The Knicks are also getting quality minutes from their point guards: Elfrid Payton’s producing 14.8 points, 4.6 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game. Austin Rivers is generating 13 points per contest while shooting 48.1 percent from beyond the arc, providing much-needed spacing for the likes of Barrett and Randle. And rookie point guard, Immanuel Quickley, is off to an impressive start to his NBA career, including a 16-point performance against the Hawks, a game he played 18:47 minutes.

Barrett and Randle ranking first and second in minutes per game, respectively, is concerning, yet not a surprise, considering who their coach is. However, the Knicks are off to an expectation-defying start to the season, and Thibodeau appears to be living up to his reputation as a head coach who can quickly change a franchise’s culture. 

5. Standout Rookies

Anthony Edwards: 15.1 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists

The decision to make Anthony Edwards a part of the second unit is paying off for the Minnesota Timberwolves. He’s shooting 51.4 percent from inside the arc, and while he has a lot of work to do to round out his game, averaging 26.3 minutes and not having to deal with the opposition’s starters as often as he would be if he were starting, helps that cause.

James Wiseman: 11 points, 6 rebounds, 1.7 blocks

James Wiseman’s NBA career is off to an impressive start. As a shot blocker, he times his leap well, and he can quickly cover a lot of ground around the rim. Wiseman runs the floor well in transition, and he generates easy points for the Golden State Warriors when he dives to the cup. If the defense leaves him open from beyond the arc, he’ll make them pay for that decision, as evidenced by him shooting 42.9 percent on 1.6 three-point attempts per game. And as if that wasn’t enough to earn the second overall pick rave reviews, he’s also comfortable making plays off the dribble.

Simply put, Wiseman looks like the total package.

LaMelo Ball: 12.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.9 assists

On Jan. 9, Ball became the youngest player in NBA history to record a triple-double, putting together a 22-point, 12-rebound, 11-assist performance.

 

Ball’s three-point shooting and his defense are noticeable blemishes, but he’s a 19-year-old rookie who’s ten games into his NBA career. He has a preternatural feel for the game and delivers highlight-reel passes with regularity.

Deni Avdija: 7.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists

The ninth pick in the draft has started every game for the Washington Wizards, making a positive impact on both ends of the floor. 

Deni Avdija’s 6-foot-9, he sets his feet quickly and he has a fast release. That combination makes it difficult for defenders to challenge his shot. What’s worse for his opponents is he’s knocking down 45.7 percent of his three-point attempts. Shortly, expect him to increase his current average of 3.5 shots from beyond the arc per game. 

The other part of Avdija’s offensive repertoire that requires mentioning is he’s a flashy passer, especially off the dribble. 

Defensively, Avdija’s effort doesn’t wane. According to NBA.com, he’s contesting 7.5 shots per game, which is the fourth-most among rookies this season. He’s also averaging 1.9 deflections and 1.1 steals per game.

The Wizards have gotten off to a slow start this season, and even their most optimistic fans probably don’t envision them getting past the first round of the playoffs. However, Avdija’s play has been a bright spot, and he’s quickly proving he can be a part of this team’s turnaround.

Tyrese Haliburton: 12.1 points, 5.5 assists, 1.4 steals

Tyrese Haliburton is playing like he’s a 10-year veteran. He has a tremendous feel for the game, he’s decisive, and he’s a threat with and without the ball. 

At 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-7.5 wingspan, Haliburton’s long strides allow him to quickly get to the basket, where he effectively utilizes his length to finish at the rim. As a shooter, despite unorthodox mechanics, the former Iowa State Cyclone is averaging 4.8 three-point attempts per game and making 50 percent of them. His deep range permits him plenty of space when he shoots, but when defenders close in on him, he’s unfazed.

Defensively, even when shooters create space against Haliburton, his length typically allows him to recover quickly enough to challenge their shots.

Payton Pritchard: 8.6 points, 3.1 assists, 1.3 steals

The most surprising name on this list is Payton Pritchard. He plays like a veteran point guard, rarely picking up his dribble, patiently probing the defense until he finds a weakness to exploit. 

Pritchard’s provided the Boston Celtics with a much-needed boost off the bench, serving as the catalyst for their comeback win over the Pacers and tipping in the game-winning shot against the Miami HEAT.

For more on how this season’s freshman class is performing, Basketball Insiders’ Ariel Pacheco wrote in-depth about the race for Rookie of the Year.

6. Steph Curry’s 62-Point Bonanza

In a Jan. 3 showdown with the Portland Trail Blazers, Steph Curry put on a scoring clinic en route to a career-high 62 points, which remains the highest individual scoring output in the NBA this season.

Curry was in rhythm from the opening tip, setting the tone for his milestone performance by scoring 21 points in the first quarter. The two-time MVP had 31 at the half and 45 after three quarters. Curry scored 17 points in the final frame, guiding the Warriors to a 137-122 win. 

The anatomy of Curry’s career night is as follows: He shot 58.1 percent from the field, made eight of his 16 three-pointers and converted 18 of his 19 free-throw attempts. This season is in its infancy stage, yet it would hardly be a surprise if no one tops Curry’s performance.

7. Bradley Beal’s Career Night

The Washington Wizards don’t win many games, but no matter how much they’re trailing by, they seem capable of making the matchup competitive. That is mostly thanks to Bradley Beal, who in a Jan. 6 tilt with the Sixers, nearly helped his team overcome what at one point was a 21-point deficit by going supernova for the first three-quarters of a career-high, 60-point performance. 

In the opening frame, Beal had 13 points. He finished the first half with 32. Entering the fourth quarter, Beal had 57 and seemed poised to break Gilbert Arenas’ franchise scoring record of 60 points. Surprisingly, in the final frame, Beal shot 1-for-6 from the field, missed all three of his three-point attempts and he went just 1-for-2 in his lone trip to the free-throw line, meaning he had to settle for tying rather than surpassing the franchise’s single-game scoring record.

At the end of the Wizards’ nearly miraculous comeback win in Philadelphia, Beal had made 20 of his 35 field goals, good for 57.1 percent. He hit 7-for-10 on three-point attempts and 13 of his 15 free throws. For good measure, Beal also chipped in seven rebounds and five assists – but will he end the year as a Wizard?

8. The Chris Paul Effect

Where Chris Paul goes, winning follows. After missing the playoffs his first two seasons in the NBA, his team has only failed to make the postseason once in the last 12 years. Now, the future Hall of Fame floor general is elevating the Phoenix Suns, who are in a tie for the league’s best record.

Paul is averaging 13.2 points, 8.5 assists, the fourth-most in the league, and 4.6 rebounds per game. The stingy Suns are yielding just 106.4 points per 100 possessions, which ranks seventh in the association. Offensively, they’re scoring 112.5 points per 100 possessions, the ninth-most in the league. That two-way production has led to Phoenix having the fourth-highest net rating in the NBA.

Paul is an ideal option to run the point alongside the Suns’ young cornerstones, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton, and catch-and-shoot three-point threats such as Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson and Jae Crowder. They’re making the 15-year veteran’s job easier; in turn, each one of them is benefitting from playing off the nine-time All-NBA point guard.

9. Toronto Raptors Stumbling Out of the Gates

Even those anticipating the Toronto Raptors would regress after finishing with the second-best record in the NBA last season probably didn’t forecast them losing six of their first seven games to start the 2020-21 campaign.

Eight games into their season, they have the fourth-worst record.

As the first team to arrive at the Orlando bubble, the Raptors spent two grueling months there. They had little time to recover, thanks to a condensed offseason, and they’re playing their home games in Tampa Bay this season, creating more strain than usual for organization members who didn’t bring their families with them. 

In the offseason, Serge Ibaka signed with the Los Angeles Clippers, and Marc Gasol joined the Los Angeles Lakers. The Raptors signed Aron Baynes to start at center, yet he’s getting outplayed by Chris Boucher, who’s slender frame restricts how head coach Nick Nurse can utilize him. 

While Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet continue to perform at a high level, Pascal Siakam is yet to shake off the struggles that plagued him in the bubble. The Raptors need Siakam, whose $130 million maximum contract extension kicked in this season, to snap out of his funk. Perhaps, his 32-point performance against the Suns is a sign he’s thawing out from his ice-cold start to the season. 

10. Los Angeles Lakers’ New Additions Fitting in Seamlessly

LeBron James and Anthony Davis are wisely pacing themselves with the big picture in mind. They’re also two of the best players in the league, meaning they can still average over 20 points and eight rebounds per game. 

The Los Angeles Lakers’ new additions, Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell, Marc Gasol, and Wesley Matthews, are veterans who know their roles, helping them mesh quickly with James and Davis. 

Though Talen Horton-Tucker isn’t new to the team, he’s already played in more games than he did as a rookie, and he’s contributing quality minutes as well as 7.1 points per game this season. He’s another new member of the Lakers’ rotation, helping keep them atop the Western Conference standings without taxing its superstar duo, which should pay dividends in the postseason.

While the season is still in the early goings, there’s plenty of worthwhile tidbits to dig through. From impressive rookies to future all-timers, the NBA and it’s revolving carousel of parity never fails to disappoint – and it hasn’t thus far through a fraction of the frantic 2020-21 campaign.

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NBA Daily: Is Stephen Curry the MVP?

Given the prolific season Stephen Curry is having, despite the Golden State Warriors being ninth in the Western Conference, does his impact make him the Most Valuable Player in the NBA this season?

Bobby Krivitsky

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In the aftermath of Klay Thompson suffering an Achilles tear that ended his season before it began, no one would have blamed Stephen Curry for prioritizing his preservation through the 2020-21 campaign.

Instead, despite the Golden State Warriors lacking the necessary talent to become a title contender, Curry’s doing everything in his power to get them into the playoffs.

The two-time league MVP is on pace to win the scoring title for the second time in his career. In a recent road loss against the Boston Celtics, Curry put up 47 points, becoming the second player in Warriors history to score 30 or more points in 10-straight games, joining Wilt Chamberlain. 

In his last 11 contests, Curry’s averaging 40 points on shooting splits that aren’t supposed to be possible at the game’s highest level. Even though he’s hoisting 14.3 attempts from beyond the arc per game, he’s making them at a 49.7 percent clip. He’s taking 23.4 shots from the field but still seeing the ball go through the hoop 54.1 percent of the time.

The context of how Curry’s producing those prodigious numbers makes them even more impressive. He is the only scoring threat on Golden State who defenses need to concern themselves with — stop Curry, win the game; it’s that simple, at least in theory it is.

 

Another layer of what makes Curry’s prolific scoring so impressive is the energy he’s exerting to do so. According to NBA.com’s tracking data, Curry’s running 1.43 miles per game on offense, which is the sixth-most league-wide. And what that figure doesn’t fully capture is that while Curry has a lightning-quick release and is masterful at creating the sliver of daylight he needs to get his shot off, it takes a significant amount of energy to do that once, let alone throughout a game.

Even though Curry’s already the greatest shooter of all time, he’s taken the most lethal part of his game to new heights. From 2015 when the Warriors won their first NBA championship to 2019, a stretch in which they reached the finals every year, step-back threes accounted for just eight percent of Curry’s shooting profile from beyond the arc. But this season, Curry knew it would be more challenging to create shots for himself, which is why he’s doubled that figure to 16 percent and he’s knocking down 51.5 percent of his step-back threes, per NBA.com.

Curry’s also putting more pressure on opponents from further away from the hoop than he has in years past. According to NBA.com, from 2015 through 2019, five percent of his threes came from 30 to 40 feet. This season, shots from that distance account for 10 percent of his three-point attempts. Just like when defenses double team him out of a pick-and-roll, Curry forcing teams to defend him from further out is another way for him to create 4-3 opportunities for his teammates.

 

After that loss against the Celtics, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr said Curry’s “at the peak of his powers.” Though he’s not just putting his talents towards individual production, he is the primary reason Golden State’s firmly in the play-in tournament. The Warriors currently reside ninth in the Western Conference. They’re one game behind the eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies and two back of the seventh-ranked Dallas Mavericks. 

As impressive an individual season as Curry’s having and as vital as he’s been to his team’s success this season, the reality is the Warriors haven’t won at a high enough level for him to win Most Valuable Player honors for the third time in his career. Currently, Nikola Jokic is the leading MVP candidate. While it’s fair to point out the Denver Nuggets aren’t even in the top three in the Western Conference, Jokic ranks first in player efficiency rating, win shares, box plus/minus and value over replacement player. He’s averaging 26.4 points, 11.1 rebounds, 8.8 assists and 1.4 steals per game. 

If Jokic misses enough of Denver’s remaining games, someone could usurp him for the right to win MVP. In that scenario, Curry would have a chance to become the NBA’s Most Valuable Player for a third time, but he’d have to sway voters from giving it to Joel Embiid. Embiid’s in the midst of a career season, ranking second in player efficiency rating, eighth in win shares and fourth in box plus/minus. He’s averaging 29.9 points, 11.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game while leading the Philadelphia 76ers to the best record in the Eastern Conference.

Curry ranks sixth in player efficiency rating, seventh in win shares and is second in both box plus/minus and value over replacement player. He has a case for MVP, but Jokic and Embiid are capping off career seasons while leading their respective teams to a higher level of success. Yes, their teams are more talented and there probably isn’t enough weight put on how valuable an individual is to his team, but the reality is the MVP typically goes to the best player on a top team. Furthermore, that argument also applies to Jokic, who’s the lone All-Star on a team with a better record.

Not naming Curry this season’s Most Valuable Player doesn’t mean his prolific production isn’t appreciated. Nor should it get taken as a sign elevating his team, somehow finding ways to become a more dangerous shooter and investing as much energy as he has into a season that won’t end with a championship isn’t garnering respect from the NBA community. That includes fans whose favorite team doesn’t reside in the Bay Area.

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NBA Daily: The Lakers’ Path Back to the NBA Finals

In the wake of Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Bobby Krivitsky examines the Los Angeles Lakers’ path back to the NBA Finals.

Bobby Krivitsky

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It’s been 15 games since a high ankle sprain sidelined LeBron James. 

With the Western Conference standings congested and Anthony Davis already out due to a right calf strain and a re-aggravation of his right Achilles tendinosis, the Los Angeles Lakers faced the threat of a fall that would require their participation in the play-in tournament.

However, the Lakers have fought admirably in the absence of their two stars, going seven and eight. As a result, their fall in the standings has been painless, going from third at the time of James’ injury to now occupying fifth place in the West.

The primary reason the Lakers have been able to tread water without their two stars is they’ve remained stingy on defense. Since James’ injury, they have the fourth-best defensive rating in the league. That’s despite facing four teams who rank in the top five in offensive rating and six of the categories’ top-10 members.

Right now, the Lakers are 2.5 games ahead of the sixth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers, with a 4.5-game cushion between them and the Dallas Mavericks, who are seventh in the conference. That should be a large enough gap to keep Los Angeles out of the play-in tournament, but the two teams are going to converge for a two-game series starting Thursday. For the Lakers, getting swept would re-open the possibility of having to compete in the play-in tournament.

Fortunately for them, even splitting that series would make it unlikely the Mavericks finish ahead of the Lakers in the standings. And help might be on the way for the Lakers: Davis may soon rejoin the lineup, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, meaning there’s a distinct possibility he’s active for at least one of those two matchups. As for James, he’s on track to return in three weeks.

While Los Angeles’ stars are getting closer to making their returns, the Denver Nuggets got dealt a more severe blow when Jamal Murray tore his ACL in a recent game against the Golden State Warriors. Denver is 10-2 since acquiring Aaron Gordon at the trade deadline and looked the part of a legitimate title contender prior to Murray’s injury. 

Denver is fourth in the West, 1.5 games ahead of Los Angeles. But even if the Nuggets have home-court advantage, they’re the preferable opening-round opponent, not just for Los Angeles, but any team with a legitimate chance at the fourth or fifth seed.

Fortunately for the Lakers, that’s the place in the Western Conference pecking order where they’re most likely to finish this season. So long as the Nuggets don’t freefall in Murray’s absence, Los Angeles will likely start the playoffs against an opponent that’s gone from having the potential to present the greatest challenge to the defending champions’ quest to get back to the Finals to becoming a desirable first-round matchup.

After that, the Lakers may have to get past the Utah Jazz and or the Los Angeles Clippers to make a return trip to the NBA Finals. The former has the best record in the league this season, but locking horns with the defending champions in a best of seven series is a far more challenging and potentially rewarding proving ground.

The Jazz have a deep, reliable rotation, they have the best net rating in the NBA, they’re in the top five in points for and against per 100 possessions, and they’re attempting the most threes per game, but also rank in the top five in three-point shooting percentage. However, the Lakers would have the two best players in a series against Utah. Usually, an opponent doesn’t overcome that disadvantage.  

As for the Clippers, Rajon Rondo has quickly proven to be an impactful acquisition. Los Angeles is seven and one with him in the lineup, generating the highest net rating in the league during that span. Last season, the Lakers saw first-hand how impactful playoff Rondo can be. Now, the Clippers are hoping he can bring structure to their offense, something they sorely lacked last postseason and was at the forefront of them blowing a 3-1 series lead over the Nuggets. Doing so would go a long way towards maximizing the production of a team that has the talent to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the first time in franchise history.

If this is the year the battle of LA takes place in the postseason, it figures to be a slugfest. Still, the Clippers have their doubters after last year’s meltdown in the playoffs. There’s also a large contingency who are skeptical about how far the Jazz can go in the postseason, given their lack of a top-tier superstar. Despite the validity of those concerns, both teams can beat the Lakers in a best of seven series. That no longer appears to be the case for the Nuggets, which is a shame for them and people who want to see the best possible matchups in the playoffs. But Murray’s injury, as unfortunate an occurrence as it is, makes it easier for the Lakers to get through the gauntlet that is the Western Conference and have a chance to claim an 18th championship, which would break their tie with the Boston Celtics for the most titles in NBA history.

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NBA AM: The Play-In Game – West

With the season winding down, Ariel Pacheco takes a look at how the play-in tournament is shaping up in the Western Conference.

Ariel Pacheco

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With the regular season’s end in sight, teams are making their last push to make the playoffs in what has been a condensed season. But the new play-in tournament is providing more teams than ever a chance at a coveted playoff spot.

Here is what the new play-in tournament will look like: Teams that finish with the Nos 7 and 8 seeds will face off against each other. The winner of this game will be No. 7. The Nos. 9 and 10 seeds will also play and the winner will play the loser of the first game. The winner of this game will be the No. 8 seed. 

The play-in tournament provides intrigue and adds pressure on teams in both conferences to finish in the top six and avoid the play-in altogether. The Western Conference, in particular, is shaping up to have a rather exciting finish. There are a number of teams who could find themselves fighting for their playoff lives in this year’s tournament – all below in tiers.

Teams Likely To Avoid Play-In

Portland Trail Blazers (32-24)
Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: 8
Games Against Teams Over .500: 12
Games Against West: 11

The Trail Blazers are currently the sixth seed in the West meaning, for now, they are safe from the play-in tournament. However, they are just two games above the Mavericks from possibly dropping down a place. They’re the team most likely to secure that sixth seed because they have more talent than the teams below them – hello, Dame – and they also have an elite offense. However, the defensive concerns are very real and if they were to slip, it would likely be because of their struggles on that side of the ball.

Likely Play-In Teams

Dallas Mavericks

Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: 9
Games Against Teams Over .500: 5
Games Against West: 8

On paper, the Mavs have a really easy schedule as the season winds down. They have just five games against teams over .500 and two against the Los Angeles Lakers, who may be without their two stars for those games. However, they are just 10-12 this season against sub .500 teams and are coming off a disappointing loss to the Sacramento Kings. There’s still a pretty good chance they get the sixth seed and avoid the play-in, but it also wouldn’t be surprising to see them in it as well.

Memphis Grizzlies
Games Left: 17
Home Games Left: 7
Games Against Teams Over .500: 8
Games Against West: 12

The Grizzlies are often overlooked, but they are about as well-coached as any other team in the NBA. It is likely they will be in the play-in game, but don’t be surprised if they are able to sneak into the sixth seed. They lost last year’s play-in game in the Bubble to the Blazers, so they do have experience in this type of setting. They may be getting Jaren Jackson Jr. back soon which should help. 

Golden State Warriors
Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: 9
Games Against Teams Over .500: 6
Games Against West: 13

The Warriors are getting just other-worldly performances from Stephen Curry on an almost nightly basis at this point. However, they continue to struggle to win games, in large part due to the struggles when he sits on the bench. Their schedule is pretty light to close the season, which bolsters their chances. The talent on this team isn’t great, but Curry’s play should be enough to get them in the play-in tournament. 

San Antonio Spurs
Games Left: 17
Home Games Left: 6
Games Against Teams Over .500: 12
Games Against West: 7

The Spurs have struggled of late, especially after the All-Star break. Their defense has dropped off badly, but if there’s any reason to be positive, it’s that they are still coached by Gregg Popovich and their young guys continue to show improvement. They have been really good on the road this season and a majority of their games are on the road. It won’t be easy, but the Spurs should find themselves in the play-in tournament.

Outside Looking In

New Orleans Pelicans
Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: 6
Games Against Teams Over .500: 9
Games Against West: 11

The Pelicans have been hit with the injury bug of late, but their inconsistent play this season continues to be a huge problem. Their defense continues to bleed three-pointers and while point Zion Williamson has worked, there just isn’t enough shooting to maximize him just yet. It seems unlikely the Pelicans make a late-season run to the play-in game.

Sacramento Kings

Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: 8
Games Against Teams Over .500: 8
Games Against West: 14

The Kings are the least likely team to make the play-in tournament. Their defense is still problematic and they just recently ended their 9-game losing streak. It’ll take a huge late-season push and the Kings just haven’t shown that they are capable of putting it all together for a long enough stretch. 

The play-in tournament adds a new layer of competition that will bring excitement at the end of the season. Be sure to check out how the play-in tournament is shaping up in the Eastern Conference.

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