Kevin Durant is not coming to New York City. Neither is LeBron James. Consequently, the Knicks are not going to be transformed into a legitimate championship contender this summer.
Consider for a second just how far the Knicks (who have averaged 28 wins per season over the last three years) are from approaching even the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference. Think about the enormous gap between the Knicks and the Toronto Raptors, for instance. Then remember how the Raptors were simply outclassed by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. And over the first two games in the NBA Finals, we have watched the defending-champion Golden State Warriors absolutely dominate those same Cavs.
The logical corollary here is that the Knicks are not simply one piece away from contender status. As a result, Phil Jackson and Steve Mills should take a big picture approach to the 2016 offseason. In short, target only “value” contracts. The worst-case scenario is not failing to significantly upgrade the roster this summer. No, the worst-case scenario would be overpaying marginal talent and inefficiently committing cap space that will hamstring the franchise in the future.
Thus, maxing out Mike Conley would be a mistake. Ditto for Dwight Howard.
As I have written previously, the Knicks are not going to win a title with Carmelo Anthony as their best player. If and when the Knicks are great again, it will be with a roster built around Kristaps Porzingis. Thus, searching for a quick fix this summer makes little long-term sense. Due to the salary cap spike (the salary cap FLOOR will be north of $82 million), there is going to be a ton of teams with money chasing a limited number of players. The Knicks’ best course of action would be shopping shrewdly this summer and saving their allowance money for next July, when the greatest point guard crop in free agency history hits the open market.
Nonetheless, even without signing one of the elite, top-tier players, Phil Jackson can craftily construct a foundation that puts New York back on the road to relevancy. And make no mistake, the Knicks need to improve their guard play if they want to improve next season and going forward.
With that in mind, here’s a realistic wish list of free agent guards for the Knicks to consider:
Matthew Dellavedova, 25, Restricted free agent:
The Knicks need a defensive-minded point guard in the worst way. Jose Calderon got cooked on a consistent basis last season, leaving the Knicks’ backline defenders exposed and often out-of-position and/or in foul trouble. Improving their perimeter defense is simply a prerequisite if New York hopes to improve. The Knicks could also use an infusion of aggressiveness/nastiness, which Delly also brings to the table. In addition, he’s an underrated long-distance shooter. Dellavedova was one of just 10 players in the NBA last season to attempt at least 200 three-pointers and shoot 41 percent or better from the behind the arc. At just 25 years old, he’s entering the prime of his career.
Seth Curry, 25, Restricted free agent:
It’s always dangerous to get too excited about relatively meaningless games played late in a lost season, but Steph’s younger brother showed some intriguing upside for Sacramento in April. Over the final 10 games of the 2015-16 season, Curry averaged 15.5 points and 4.1 assists per contest, while shooting 47.4 percent from the floor, 49.2 percent from three-point territory and 90 percent from the free-throw stripe. His last name alone may bump up his sticker price, but he’s the type of young shooter the Knicks should consider investing in.
Ty Lawson, 28, Unrestricted free agent:
Just two short seasons ago, Lawson was one of only three players in the entire league to average at least 15 points and nine assists per game (Chris Paul and John Wall were the other two). However, his career and personal life bottomed out last year. His off-court transgressions (two DUI’s) and his remarkably poor play on the court mean he’ll be a major gamble for any team that signs him this summer. For a Knicks team that likely needs to get lucky somewhere along the line, would Phil Jackson consider rolling the dice? In theory, he’d be an excellent fit in new coach Jeff Hornacek’s up-tempo offense. The downside is obvious, and Phil may be particularly hesitant considering he’s made bringing in ‘high character’ players a priority.
Courtney Lee, 30, Unrestricted free agent:
Lee is a versatile, effective defender who can also knock down threes (38.4 percent for his career). Three-and-D wings – as Lee recently referred to himself in this Basketball Insiders article – are extremely valuable in today’s NBA. If the Knicks can get him at the right price, he’d be a solid, necessary upgrade.
Lance Stephenson, 25, Team Option:
Like Ty Lawson, the downside is immense, as it could be argued that an NYC homecoming might be the worst possible destination for the Brooklyn native. That said, assuming the Grizzlies don’t pick up his $9.4 million option, Stephenson could provide solid bang for the buck if he gets his act together. It looked like ‘Born Ready’ might be on the verge of flaming out of the NBA after wearing out his welcome first in Charlotte and then with the Clippers. However, Stephenson played surprisingly well for the desperate and injury-ravaged Grizzlies after being dealt to Memphis. He averaged 14.2 points and 4.4 rebounds per game in the 26 contests he played in as a member of the Grizzlies.
Evan Fournier, 23, Restricted free agent:
Fournier is one of the more talented and promising young guards set to hit the open market this summer. Last season, Fournier was one of just six NBA players to shot above 46 percent from the floor, 40 percent from three-point range and 80 percent from the charity stripe. In a league that is placing more and more of a premium on shooting, he’s obviously a valuable commodity. As a result, the Magic have intimated they will match anything that even resembles a reasonable offer. Thus, the Knicks would have to overpay to pry him for Orlando, which likely means his name should be scratched from this list.
Eric Gordon, 27, Unrestricted free agent:
Would Gordon be willing to sign a short-term “make good contract?” It might actually make sense for both parties. Such a deal would give Gordon a chance to prove that he can stay healthy (he hasn’t played more than 64 games since his rookie season in 2008-09) and then cash in with a long-term deal the following summer. For the Knicks, it would limit the investment required to purchase a risky stock.
Jeremy Lin, 28, Player Option:
He’s the type of guard the Knicks need (a penetrating point guard who can wreak havoc by getting into the paint), but too many burnt bridges between Lin and the organization makes it highly unlikely Linsanity would return to MSG. (The smart money says Lin ends up across the river in Brooklyn playing for new Nets coach Kenny Atkinson).
Tyler Johnson, 24, Restricted free agent:
Johnson had been playing surprisingly well for Miami (13.1 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists per-36 minutes) before a shoulder injury curtailed his season. He’s a solid shooter from distance, and possesses the quickness and handles to get to the front of the rim. In addition, Johnson is a gritty, plus-defender. Due to the Arenas Provision, the most teams can offer him is a salary starting at $5.6 million. If I’m the Knicks, I pony up and force the HEAT to match.
Brandon Jennings, 27, Unrestricted free agent:
Speaking about the point guard position at his introductory press conference, Jeff Hornacek said, “We have a young player that’s obviously inexperienced after his first year. He’ll get better and better. Jose [Calderon] is kind of later in his career. If we can find a middle guy to bridge those two guys, it would be good. There’s a lot of guys out there.” Jennings would seem fit that mold. He’s also shown an affinity for NYC throughout his career. Coming off a shortened campaign due to a significant Achilles injury, would Jennings be willing to sign a short deal to prove he is healthy and can still be productive?
Kent Bazemore, 26, Unrestricted free agent:
Bazemore successfully made the leap from fringe/role player to certified starter this past season, and will reap the rewards this summer. He competes and contributes on both ends of the floor and would slot in well on the wing, next to Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis in New York, but his strong play may have priced him out of the “value” range. Again, it is important to remember that the skyrocketing salary floor is going to force even the league’s most spendthrift organizations to dole out more than $82 million in guaranteed salary next season. That means a player like Bazemore will likely get offers starting at around $16 million a year.
Allen Crabbe, 24, Restricted free agent:
Crabbe played a total of just 783 minutes in his first two NBA seasons combined, but logged over 2,100 effective minutes for the Blazers in 2015-16. The numbers don’t jump out at you (10.3 points per game, 2.7 rebounds per game, 1.2 assists per game and a 12.2 PER), but he just turned 24 years old and is a versatile athlete that may be scratching the surface of his potential. The Blazers have the right to match any offer; what kind of contract would it take to scare them off?
Evan Turner, 27, Unrestricted free agent:
The former number two overall pick had been relatively disappointing since entering the league, but seemed to turn the corner a bit and played the best ball of his career last season in Boston. He posted a career-high 13.6 PER, coupled with a 51.3 True Shooting percentage. His game isn’t aesthetically pleasing, but he often finds ways to chip in on both offense and defense. Still, it requires a leap of faith to assume he won’t revert back to the inefficient and frustrating player he was for the majority of NBA tenure. He’s been linked to the Knicks recently, but it sounds like the most likely scenario is a return to Beantown.
Jordan Clarkson, 24, Restricted free agent:
Clarkson would be an ideal fit in many ways – a young, athletic guard with considerable upside. However, because he is subject to the Arenas Provision, it is extremely unlikely that the Lakers let him leave L.A.
E’Twaun Moore, 27, Unrestricted free agent:
If you are looking to add guard depth to round out your roster without breaking the bank, Moore is the type of player you look at. He carved out a valuable role in the Bulls’ rotation last season, thanks in large part to his remarkable accuracy from behind-the-arc — Moore shot 45.2 percent from three-point range last season. However, it should be noted that Moore’s previous career-best mark was 37.8 percent back in 2011-12.
Other potential targets: Joe Johnson, D.J. Augustin, Jamal Crawford, Gerald Henderson, Manu Ginobili, Kevin Martin, Randy Foye and Leandro Barbosa.
NBA Daily: Hield, Kings Both Have Room To Bargain
Buddy Hield understandably feels as if he’s worth more than the Kings have offered him, but that doesn’t mean he’s worth more than that to Sacramento, specifically. Douglas Farmer writes.
The emotion in Buddy Hield’s voice Wednesday night made it clear his words were not a negotiating ploy. When the fourth-year shooting guard said he would find someplace else to play if the Sacramento Kings did not properly respect him in contract negotiations, he was sincere.
“We’ll see if they’ll have me here,” Hield said. “Feels home to be here. I love Sacramento, but if they don’t feel I’m part of the core … if they don’t want to do it, then after that, I’ll look for somewhere else to go.”
Kings guard Buddy Hield is taking these contract talks very personally. In an emotional postgame interview, he talked about “finding another home” if the team doesn’t get a deal done by Monday’s deadline. pic.twitter.com/sEkJEZfNkS
— Jason Anderson (@JandersonSacBee) October 17, 2019
The Kings have until Monday to reach an agreement on a rookie-scale extension with Hield, who is eligible for a four-year deal north of $130 million or a designated-player extension of five years and $170 million.
But Hield may not be looking for those outlandish numbers. Per Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports, Hield is looking for a contract of about $110 million, while Sacramento has offered only $90 million across four years.
“It’s not always about less than the max, it’s just something that’s reasonable and is not an insult,” Hield said. “If we respect each other on that level, we’ll come to that agreement.”
Hield shot 42.7 percent from deep last season on 7.9 attempts per game while averaging 20.7 points. He may not necessarily be worthy of a max contract, but his is a valued skill set in the modern NBA. Combine that with the weak 2020 free agent class, and Hield has some ground to dig in upon at the bargaining table. If an extension is not agreed to, Hield would not be free to go wherever he wishes next summer, but he would be free to pursue that which might force the Kings’ hand as a restricted free agent.
Of wings expected to hit the market next summer, Hield would be joined by Otto Porter, Joe Harris and, possibly, Hield’s current teammate, Bogdan Bogdanović (also restricted). It really could be that shallow of a shooting pool. Gordon Hayward is likely to pick up his $31.2 million player option with the Boston Celtics, while DeMar DeRozan and the San Antonio Spurs are reportedly in discussions. Meanwhile, Caris LeVert has already signed a new deal with the Nets.
That market vacuum could drive up Hield’s summertime price, though Sacramento could still match any offer. If the Kings would match ties into the exact reasons they are risking alienating a core player in the first place. Sacramento has returned to respectability — both in the standings and in perceived approach — by building through the draft. But their bill is almost due.
Hield, Bogdanović, point guard De’Aaron Fox and forward Marvin Bagley are all approaching paydays in the next few seasons. The Kings are almost certainly going to make massive offers to Fox and Bagley in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and those contracts will tie up Sacramento’s books for much of the 2020s. The additional $5 million per year sought by Hield could preclude other moves when combined with Fox’s and Bagley’s deals.
The Kings’ ground is strengthened by holding Bogdanović’s restricted rights, as well. If they lose Hield, they will still have a starting-quality shooting guard to play alongside Fox in Bogdanović. He may not have hit 602 threes in his first three seasons in the league as Hield has, but Bogdanović is currently at 263 through two years, hardly anything to readily dismiss.
Even though Bogdanović will not cost as much as Hield — pondering a $51.4 million, four-year extension — keeping both pieces of the shooting duo may prove too costly for Sacramento owner Vivek Ranadivé. At which point, Hield’s raw emotions Wednesday night may foreshadow Ranadivé’s decision.
Where could Hield go, if for no other reason than to drive up his price?
Any discussion of 2020 free agents must include the Atlanta Hawks, who could have as much as $79.1 million in cap space. Hield would fit both their roster timeline and its general construction, though they did just snag both De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish in the 2019 draft. Hield’s minutes would come from the same pool as theirs, making this pairing a bit redundant.
There would be no such conflict with the Dallas Mavericks, whose centerpieces currently miss a wing with range from deep. The Mavericks would lack the space to sign Hield if Tim Hardaway Jr. opts into his $19 million player option, but that could simply precede a sign-and-trade with the Kings. There are certainly ways to make the space necessary should Dallas owner Mark Cuban want to.
If Hield wanted to be a part of another group that is “getting the team back to where it needs to be,” the Memphis Grizzlies would be a situation very similar to Sacramento’s. Forward Jaren Jackson Jr. will see his first big contract begin in 2022 and this year’s No. 2 overall pick Ja Morant should follow that trend a year later. The Grizzlies, however, do not have an exceptional shooter to pair with their young duo. If nothing else, Memphis could drive up the price on Hield to compromise the Kings’ cap space moving forward.
Those possibilities, among others, give Hield practical reason to stand his ground for what he feels he’s worth, while Sacramento’s long view may make it think twice. As emotional and blunt as he was, Hield understands these realities.
“Some people will get the max and some people won’t get the max,” he said. “That’s how it works.”
The Divide On Analytics
The disconnect in the understanding and use of analytics is widespread in today’s basketball landscape. Unearthing the reasoning behind these numbers will not only change how we talk about them, but also revolutionize how we look at the game in the future. Drew Mays writes.
Once upon a time, during a routine, regular season game, a well-regarded shooter was left alone for a corner three. Iman Shumpert, then with Cleveland, rushed to a hard closeout. Seeing Shumpert off balance, the shooter blew by him.
After the play, LeBron James criticized Shumpert for his overaggression. Shump, understandably, was confused – he’s a shooter! Shooters need to get run off the line!
LeBron responded that from that particular corner, the shooter only shot 35 percent – much worse than his overall three-point percentage that garnered his reputation. Accordingly, LeBron would have rather Shumpert closed under control, baiting the shooter into hoisting from a spot he doesn’t like, rather than letting him drive towards the rim with a full head of steam.
This simple knowledge of percentages has merged into the greater conversation of advanced statistics and analytics. Before these numbers were readily available, a respected jump shooter would never be left alone.
Now, the word “analytics” has transformed from a description into a clustered and contentious field. Even though – especially for those of us without data-processing backgrounds and math degrees – the above illustrates what analytics are and what they provide at their core: Information to make decisions on the micro-level and a tool to inform philosophies on the macro-level.
Dean Oliver and John Hollinger are the founding fathers of the basketball analytics movement. Both statisticians, they eventually parlayed their statistical methods and models into NBA front office jobs. These two paved the way for more recent data savants, such as Seth Partnow and Ben Falk, and their positions with professional basketball teams.
In August, Oliver was hired by the Washington Wizards to be a full-time assistant coach. Falk left the NBA a few years ago and has since started his website, Cleaning the Glass. Partnow and Hollinger both departed from their NBA jobs this year, returning to the media as staff writers for The Athletic.
Selfishly, the advantage of having Falk, Partnow and Hollinger back in the public sphere is the access we have to their brains. Partnow’s latest work is particularly geared towards analytics, and Falk and Hollinger’s are always rooted in them. Reading their work will increase your understanding of how basketball works in its current form and help develop your ideas about where it’s going.
The issue is this: Smart guys talking about numbers seems inaccessible…no matter how accessible it actually is.
Despite the talent of these three – and of all the other mathematicians writing in today’s media – there’s still a misunderstanding between those who wield statistics and those who don’t. Many times, even the players are part of the separation.
On Tuesday, Bulls guard Zach LaVine said this to the Chicago Sun-Times:
“I grew up being a Michael Jordan, Kobe [Bryant] fan… I think the mid-range is a lost art now because everyone is moving towards the threes and the analytics. I understand that because how it looks and how it sounds like it makes sense, but sometimes there’s nothing better than putting the ball in your best playmaker’s hands and letting him get the shot he needs rather than the one you want.”
This led to a revival of the discussion on ESPN’s The Jump. Rachel Nichols seemed to agree with LaVine in part, saying, “two is greater than zero.” Kevin Arnovitz followed with points important for our purpose, calling the death of the mid-range a “false dichotomy.”
“No one is saying, if a guy is wide-open at 19-feet, dribble backwards and take a shot… for Zach LaVine, it’s all about impulse control,” Arnovitz continued.
Impulse control in the sense that deciding when to take a mid-range shot is almost all of the battle. Context matters.
Matt Moore of The Action Network used The Jump’s clip to chime in. Moore tweeted, and then Kevin Durant responded.
The abbreviated version of the Moore-Durant thread is this: Durant, a historically great mid-range jump shooter, argues the side of, well, a historically great jump shooter. He talks about taking open shots regardless of where they come and a player’s confidence and feel.
Moore counters using the math. The refreshing conversation ends when another Twitter user points out that, since the analytics movement, James Harden’s mid-range attempts have dipped drastically. Durant admits he didn’t realize this.
The most telling part of the misunderstandings surrounding analytics came from Durant. He said, “I don’t view the game as math…I get what you’re saying but we just have 2 different views of the game. Analytics is a good way to simplify things.”
And that, folks, is the rub. That is the separation between fans, players and the John Hollingers of the world – the assumption that statisticians use advanced metrics and therefore see basketball as a math problem, while everyone else analyzes by merely watching the game (because of course, watching the games inherently equals reliable analysis).
But analytics isn’t a high-concept way to digitize the game and ignore the “eye test” Twitter fingers love to cite; they’re mathematical truths used to assess basketball success. Often, the air surrounding analytics is that it’s like me, an English major, taking freshman-year Calculus – impossible to understand. Because again, smart people explaining numbers can be daunting, even when they do it perfectly.
Truthfully, analytics are just more precise ways of discerning what happened in a basketball game. As Ben Taylor explains in one of his breakdowns, Chauncey Billups shooting 43 percent is more effective than Ben Wallace shooting 51 percent for a season. Billups is providing threes and making more free throws at a better rate, so even with Wallace’s higher raw field goal percentage, he’d need to be more accurate from two-point range to match Billups’ efficiency.
You don’t need to even study actual numbers to see why these statistical categories make the game easier to understand.
But, and this is another oft-forgotten point, these calculations are useless without context. In 2015-16, a Kawhi Leonard mid-range – when contextualized with qualifiers like time left on the shot clock – was a good shot. He right around 50 percent from 10-16 feet, so the advantage of taking a three over a two would be offset by Leonard’s 50 percent accuracy. During the same season, Kobe Bryant shot 41 percent from 10-16 feet. A Kobe baseline fadeaway with 14 seconds on the shot clock and a help defender coming from the high side is a bad mid-range shot.
Kevin Durant shot 58 percent from two last season. He shot 54 percent from 3-10 feet, 51 percent from 10-16 feet and 53.5 percent from 16 feet out to the three-point line.
Meanwhile, from those same distances, Zach LaVine shot 26 percent, 30 percent and 38 percent.
A mid-range jumper from Kevin Durant is usually a good shot. A mid-range jumper from Zach LaVine probably isn’t.
So, is the mid-range dead? Not completely. The last few champions rostered mid-range experts (Kawhi, Durant, Kyrie Irving), and some of the last remaining teams last season had one as well (Jimmy Butler, CJ McCollum).
Does a correlation then exist between mid-range proficiency and winning titles? Again, that’s doubtful. There’s a correlation between great players and titles, and great players usually have the mid-range game in their arsenal. That’s part of what makes them great players: the lack of holes in their games.
The discrepancies in Durant and LaVine’s two-point numbers can be found in talent level and the quality of looks. Both affect the percentages. Again, context matters.
To Durant’s point on Twitter: It is, on some level, a matter of practice. If LaVine keeps putting in the work, he can become a better mid-range shooter, making those looks more efficient.
But as a starting base, we’d say it’s better for LaVine and players like him to not settle for mid-range twos. We’re not too upset if Durant does it.
Even in the age of analytics, basketball will always in part be a matter of feel. It will always be scrutinized by the eyes. And that’s okay – because advanced statistics give context to the effectiveness of those feelings being acted on.
Maybe the point is this: If the shot clock is winding down and you have the ball out top with a defender locked in front of you and have to hoist a shot…don’t take the long two. Please shoot the three.
It’s more effective. The math says so.
NBA Daily: Already, Zion Williamson Has Importance
The preseason has made clear that Zion Williamson will be an abject positive throughout his rookie campaign. But the extent of his success remains to be seen and Williamson could drastically alter a loaded Western Conference playoff race.
Zion Williamson will be the best rookie in basketball this season, and it won’t be particularly close. The New Orleans Pelicans star is considered a generational prospect for a reason: The league has literally never before seen a player with his combination of size, strength and explosive athleticism.
But just because Williamson is a truly unparalleled physical specimen doesn’t mean his acclimation to basketball at its highest level is poised to be seamless. His lack of a reliable jumper was occasionally exploited at Duke and will allow far superior NBA defenders to lay off him, guarding against forays to the paint. He’s not ready to function as anything close to a primary ball-handler, further cramping the floor for a Pelicans team short on shooting. He should be a plus defender at the very least in time but is bound to go through the same struggles of schematic understanding and real-time recognition that plagues all first-year players.
But through four preseason games, Williamson has been so utterly dominant as to render those relative concerns almost completely moot. He’s averaging 23.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.5 steals in exhibition play so far, shooting a mind-bending 71.4 percent from the floor and attempting 8.0 free throws despite playing just 27.2 minutes per game. Williamson has a 34.2 PER, and his plus-28.8 net rating leads New Orleans by a wide margin, according to RealGM.
The normal caveats apply, of course. Preseason competition is barely a reasonable facsimile of what Williamson will face during the regular season, when opponents will employ their best players and lineups, play with consistent energy and engagement and, maybe most importantly, gear their strategy around limiting his effectiveness. He certainly wouldn’t be the first rookie whose stellar exhibition performance failed to carry over to the 82-game grind.
But Williamson has nevertheless shown enough during these glorified scrimmages to expect him to be a true impact player from the jump. Alvin Gentry has used him most as a dependent offensive weapon thus far, taking advantage of Williamson’s inherent physical trump cards by getting him the ball in space via rolls to the rim and letting him attack from the corner with a live dribble. He’s been especially unstoppable in the open floor and semi-transition, sprinting the wing for highlight-reel finishes and catching the defense on its heels with quick-hitting dribble hand-offs.
These aren’t especially innovative offensive concepts and teams will know they’re coming throughout the regular season. Williamson is just so much more athletically gifted than his defenders that, more often than not, they’ll be left helpless to stop him regardless.
Williamson won’t maintain his incredible blend of production and efficiency during the regular season. Only four players in league history have ever scored at least 20 points per game while shooting 60 percent or better from the field, per Basketball Reference. Williamson may very well eventually join that exclusive list of all-time greats, but counting on him to do so in 2019-20 only goes to compound outlandish expectations that could lead to an unfair appraisal of his debut campaign.
Unless, naturally, Williamson proves so good that he leads the rebuilt Pelicans to the playoffs in perhaps the most stacked Western Conference ever.
The Western Conference’s top six of the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Denver Nuggets, Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets, in some order, seems clear. The Portland Trail Blazers, despite some quiet churn in the middle of the roster, deserve the same benefit of the doubt the San Antonio Spurs earned years ago.
That’s eight teams vying for eight slots, before accounting for the intrigue and unknown of the Dallas Mavericks. The Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves have internal hopes of competing for the postseason, too.
Needless to say, the odds aren’t good for New Orleans, a team that underwent as much turnover as any in basketball during an extremely active offseason. Continuity of personnel and playing style is often the difference between a few extra wins and losses, but the Pelicans have neither in a season where they’ll try to force themselves into the postseason conversation.
The presence of a singular player like Williamson allows for the possibility that it might not matter.
Luka Doncic is coming off one of the most impressive rookie seasons of the decade, and Kristaps Porzingis, even 20 months removed from his last time taking the floor, is the living embodiment of game-changing two-way potential. De’Aaron Fox might be the most underrated player in basketball at 21, while the Kings mitigated the need for Marvin Bagley to pop this season by rounding out the roster with solid veterans. Karl-Anthony Towns will put up monster numbers for a Timberwolves team that’s finally and whole-heartedly embracing tenets of the modern game under Ryan Saunders and Gersson Rosas.
For the most part, though, we know the variance between those ceilings and floors this season and, by proxy, how high they could potentially lift their teams. Williamson is a different dynamic altogether. The preseason has laid bare that he’ll immediately be a positive player on offense, but there are many degrees to the extent of his possible effectiveness.
Will Williamson serve as a less-efficient, lower-usage version of the highlight-reel player he’s been in the preseason? Might this current level of play be his basic norm, with nights of inconsistency sprinkled in between? Or could he grow significantly as the season goes on, shouldering more ball-handling responsibilities and increasing his defensive awareness – unlocking small-ball lineups in which Gentry plays him at center – as the calendar flips to the new year and winter turns to spring?
It would be foolish to put a cap on Williamson’s success this season, just like it would be foolish to expect him to be an All-Star. But that gulf between wildly positive outcomes of his rookie season puts the Pelicans in a better position to pounce when an incumbent inevitably falls from the pack than any other team entering the season with long-shot playoff hopes.
Williamson definitely won’t be the best player in the Western Conference in 2019-20, maybe not even the best player on his team. But in terms of an effect on the playoff race, though, not a single player’s performance stands to loom larger.