Connect with us

NBA

Pro and Cons of Knicks’ Trade for Derrick Rose

A look at the pros and cons of the New York Knicks’ decision to trade for Derrick Rose.

Tommy Beer

Published

on

Please enable Javascript to watch this video

We all knew the New York Knicks desperately needed to upgrade their backcourt this summer. Phil Jackson decided he’d rather not wait until free agency to address the point guard position.

On Thursday afternoon, the Knicks officially announced they had traded center Robin Lopez, guard Jose Calderon and guard Jerian Grant to Chicago in exchange for guard Derrick Rose, guard Justin Holiday and a 2017 second-round pick.

It’s an interesting and confusing trade, in which there does not appear to be a clear-cut winner – at least not at first blush. Let’s dig into the pros and cons from the Knicks’ perspective.

Pros:

Increased Cap Space in 2017
Before we discuss Rose, let’s first acknowledge that the Knicks currently have just three players on their roster whose contracts extend beyond the 2016-17 season: Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle O’Quinn. That’s it. Other than those three, the books are bare. Of course the Knicks still have to flesh out their roster this summer, but it’s possible that Phil Jackson may be planning on completely revamping the roster and swinging for the fences in the summer of 2017, which will feature an incredible free agent class including the best PG crop of all-time.

If the Knicks play their cards right (i.e. trade for additional expiring contracts and/or sign a number of players to one-year deals), New York would be looking at upwards of $60 million in cap space next summer. And that’s not just cap space and a barren, empty roster. That’s with the salaries of ‘Melo and Porzingis included, with another $60 million to lavish on top-tier free agents. That’s enough to offer two max contracts. Would Phil be able to entice the combo or Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to relocate into the Eastern Conference to play alongside a rising superstar like KP as well as Anthony? The free agent class of 2017 will also likely include Steph Curry, Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, Gordon Haywood, Paul Millsap, Kyle Lowry, Danilo Gallinari, Serge Ibaka and many others. Certainly a gamble, but is it one worth taking?

A Possible Rose Revival Inside the Garden?
Will Rose stay healthy and bounce back in NYC? Will a change of scenery benefit him?

Depending on how you dissect the data from last season, you can convince yourself either way. The fact of the matter is he was inefficient offensively. There were 40 NBA players who attempted over 1,000 FGs last season, and Rose ranked 39th out of those 40 in terms of True Shooting Percentage. Kobe Bryant was the only player with a worse TS%. However, Rose’s overall numbers were dragged down by his horrendous start to the season, which was due largely to an eye injury sustained in training camp. Rose had his orbital bone fractured by an errant elbow from a teammate in practice on September 29 and had surgery the next day. Rose admitted he was literally seeing double during games and would play with one eye closed at times.

Over his first 20 games of the 2015-16 campaign, Rose (playing through that eye injury) averaged 12.9 points per game in 32.4 minutes, while shooting under 37 percent from the floor, 23 percent from three-point territory and 72 percent on free throws.

However, Rose turned a corner and began playing much better in late December. Beginning on the day after Christmas and extending into mid-March (a total of 28 games in the middle of the season), he averaged 19.4 points per game in 31.4 minutes, while shooting 46.9 percent from the floor, 35.5 percent from three-point range and 87 percent from the free-throw line. Those are impressive numbers.

Rose came back down to earth toward the end of the season. He missed six of the final 19 games of the year. In the 13 that he played, he averaged a respectable 15 points while shooting 42.8 percent, 31 percent on threes and 70 percent from the stripe. Rose’s on/off splits last season weren’t encouraging: Chcicago’s Offensive Rating with him on the court was 104.6; it was 105.2 with him off.

His defense is an issue. Chicago’s opponents scored 108.5 points per 100 possessions with Rose on the floor. They scored 104.4 points per 100 possessions with Rose on the bench

Still, Rose was able to avoid a serious injury to his knees and look fresher and more athletic at times that he had in years. Rose will never be his “MVP-caliber” self of 2011, but he showed encouraging flashes of the burst and athleticism that thrust him to stardom.

Knicks Desperately Needed to Improve at PG
The sad reality is that if Rose plays at even an average level next season, he would be a huge upgrade for the Knicks. Jose Calderon was arguably the NBA’s worst starting point last year. In order to be competitive in today’s NBA, it is imperative that you have a point guard who can break down his defender and penetrate into the heart of the defense, thus creating opportunities for himself and his teammates.

Calderon scored a total of 46 points in the paint over the 2,024 total minutes he played last season. Rose scored 453 points in the paint (10th most in the league) over the 2,097 minutes he played. And even though his defense leaves a lot to be desired, Rose is obviously still a massive upgrade over Calderon on that end of the floor as well.

It is also important to note that there were very few attractive free agents PGs on the market this summer. Mike Conley is the only top-tier PG available, and he is going to get max money. Rose, while no longer as good as Conley, is a year younger and actually played in 10 more games last season than Conley (who suffered a significant Achilles injury). It could easily be argued that one year of Rose is a far more prudent decision than spending $110 million over four years for Conley.

The Knicks now get an up-close look at Rose for an entire season, and can then decide if they want to sign him to be Porzingis’ running mate for the rest of the decade. If not, they will have $21+ million coming off the books to go shopping for a new PG.

A Playoff Team in 2017?
If the goal is to revamp the roster next summer, it would presumably benefit Phil Jackson’s sales pitch if the Knicks are coming off a season in which they showed tangible improvement and advanced to the postseason.

Even with oodles of cap space and the promise of Porzingis, if the Knicks entered next offseason having missed the playoffs in four consecutive seasons, that losing stench may be hard for prospective free agents to ignore. If New York can make strides in 2016-17, elite FAs may be sold on the idea that the Knicks are just one or two pieces away from making a major jump.

More Porzingis at Center?
Losing Robin Lopez hurts, but one possible bright side of Lopez being out of the picture is that this might lead to increased opportunities for Kristaps to play the five, where he can use his incredible athleticism and versatility to overwhelm slower opponents. Spread the floor out and let KP run high pick-and-rolls with Rose all day.

You also can’t help but wonder if part of the reason Phil and company felt comfortable trading away Lopez was because they feel confident they will be able to sign center Willy Hernangomez, their 2015 second-round pick who played well in Spain last season. Hernangomez’s contract with Real Madrid expires at the end of this month and he expressed an eagerness to come overseas and play in New York, alongside his former teammate Porzingis.  (*Note, if the Knicks do something stupid like sign Dwight Howard to a big contract then the previous paragraph will self destruct and this was all was naught).

The Knicks Have Their 2017 First-Round Draft Pick
The worst case scenario is Rose suffering a major injury and the Knicks slinking to another season in the Atlantic Division basement. However, even in that situation, the silver lining is the Knicks still have their first-round pick next year. They would shed Rose’s contract prior to free agency and have a lottery pick in a strong draft.

Cons:

Why Give Away Valuable Assets For Rose?
When Ian Begley of ESPN initially reported that the Knicks were entertaining the idea of trading for Rose last week, it made some sense for the points outlined above. Rose would keep ‘Melo, James Dolan and the fan base happy by improving the team’s prospects for next season, while also serving as a salary cap placeholder until 2017. In fact, many pundits reported that most other teams dealing with the Bulls demanded that Chicago throw in a pick or another player in order to take on Rose’s cumbersome contract.

Not only did Chicago not have to sweeten the Rose package with a first-round pick, they got Phil to fork over Lopez and Grant. Lopez was an underrated defensive stalwart for New York, and Grant, despite being unwisely buried on the bench for much of the season, showed flashes of promise late in the year. In the six games he started at the end of the season, Grant averaged 14.5 points, 3.7 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 1.2 three-pointers and 1.2 steals per game, while shooting 49.3 percent from the floor and 36.8 percent from three-point territory. It also would have been interesting to see if he flourished under new head coach Jeff Hornacek in an offense more suited to his strengths.

Lopez and Grant Are Inexpensive
Robin Lopez certainly wasn’t a star, and $13 million a year doesn’t seem cheap. However, check back with me in a couple weeks, right after the first few waves of free agents have signed throughout July. With the salary cap spiking to $94 million, that means that the salary floor will jump all the way to $84 million. Consequently, every team is going to have to find a way to hand out an immense amount of salary this summer. Relatively unappealing mid-tier free agents will be making upwards of $15 million per season. And $13 million for a legit starting center will be a solid value.

Players signed to their rookie contracts will also be especially valuable. Jerian Grant will only make $1.6 million next season. He’ll be paid just $1.7 million in 2017-18. That’s less than two percent of the salary cap. Grant likely projects as an average career backup, but having dependable rotation players that account for such a small percentage of the cap is how winning teams are constructed.

Defense Is Now a Major Issue
The Knicks allowed fewer than 108 points per 100 possessions last season. That’s below average relative to the rest of the league, but for the Knicks that represented a major step forward. In fact, it was just the third time in the last 12 years that the Knicks had a Defensive Rating south of 108.

Lopez was obviously a significant reason for their improved defensive intensity. Lopez led the Knicks in rebounding and was second on the team in blocks. Phil has $30 million to spend this summer to round out the roster, but with Rose and Carmelo as the team’s two highest paid players, defense certainly appears as if it will be a season-long problem.

Downside to Cap Space and a Rose Rebound
The negative aspect of Rose hitting free agency next summer is that even if he stays healthy and rediscovers his game, the Knicks will have to pony up in order to keep him long-term, which would obviously be a major gamble.

In addition, with the cap space the Knicks cleared out by trading Lopez and Grant, will Phil be able to better allocate those resources? Will he find a better use of $15 million combined than RoLo and Grant? If he can somehow convince a superstar to come to New York, then the roll of the dice pays off. If he can’t, it’s difficult to imagine he’ll find a better value for role players with the cap jumping up to $108 million in 2017.

As is the case with most deals, we will likely have to revisit the entire picture a few years from now to truthfully determine which side “won” or “lost” this trade.

Tommy Beer is a Senior NBA Analyst and the Fantasy Sports Editor of Basketball Insiders, having covered the NBA for the last nine seasons.

Advertisement




Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

NBA

Dejounte Murray: The Spurs’ Latest Steal

The Spurs have a history of drafting talented players late in the draft. Dejounte Murray is emerging as their most recent steal, writes David Yapkowitz.

David Yapkowitz

Published

on

It seems like almost every NBA season, the San Antonio Spurs end up selecting a player late in the draft who unexpectedly goes on to become a valuable contributor, sometimes even a star. The entire draft in itself can often be a crapshoot, but the lower the pick, the lower the chances of a team finding a solid rotation player. But with the Spurs, it’s as if they hit far more often than they miss.

Their pick from a year ago is shaping up to be no exception as the injury to starting point guard Tony Parker has opened up a huge opportunity for Dejounte Murray; one that he is taking advantage of.

There is a lot of preparation by analysts leading up to the NBA draft. Several mock drafts are created up until draft night itself. Murray was often projected to be a high first-round pick, possibly even a lottery pick. He had a solid freshman season at the University of Washington where he averaged 16.1 points per game, six rebounds, and 4.4 assists.

Draft night arrived and he ended up slipping to the bottom of the first round (29th overall), far later than he had anticipated. Following his selection, LeBron James himself, who is represented by the same sports agency as Murray, tweeted out some words of encouragement for the young rookie. He let Murray know that he may not have been drafted where he wanted to, but that he was with the best organization in the league.

Murray pretty much rode the bench last season as a rookie, which is not at all uncommon for a first-year player on a veteran team with championship aspirations. He was inactive for most of the final two months of the season. In the first round of the playoffs against the Memphis Grizzlies, and most of the second round against the Houston Rockets, he was relegated to garbage time duty. Perhaps if he’d been drafted as high as initially projected, he might have had a bigger opportunity at getting minutes right away.

That all changed, however, against Houston in Game 2 when Parker went down with the injury that he is still recuperating from. Murray was thrust into the starting lineup and he responded as well as an inexperienced rookie under the bright lights of the playoffs could. In Game 4, although the Spurs lost, he had eight points on 50 percent shooting along with three assists. He actually didn’t play in Game 5, but in the Spurs closeout Game 6 win, he poured in 11 points, ten rebounds, five assists and two steals while shooting 50 percent from the field.

Even though the Spurs were ultimately swept in the Western Conference Finals against the Golden State Warriors, Murray continued his steady play with 8.3 points, 3.8 assists, and three steals.

At the start of this season, Murray has taken his momentum from the end of last season and carried it over. He was given the starting point guard spot in place of Parker on opening night against the Minnesota Timberwolves. He responded on national television with 16 points on 7-8 shooting from the field, five rebounds, two assists and two steals.

It’s still too early to tell, but it’s highly possible that the Spurs have found their starting point guard of the future once Parker eventually decides to hang it up. At 6-foot-5, Murray is a tall point guard and his length gives him the potential to develop into an elite defensive player. He can score the basketball and he is improving his court vision and playmaking.

One area he could improve in is his outside shooting. Although he did shoot 39.1 percent from the three-point line last season, he only took 0.6 attempts. In his lone college season, he shot 28.8 percent from downtown. If he can improve his range and really begin to put together his entire package of skills, we’ll be talking yet again about how the Spurs bamboozled the rest of the league and found a draft-day gem.

Continue Reading

NBA

NBA Saturday: Jabari Bird Experiences The NBA Whirlwind

Jabari Bird entered a hostile environment Friday night after being on his couch just three days before.

Dennis Chambers

Published

on

When Gordon Hayward suffered a season-ending injury six minutes into the Boston Celtics’ season on Wednesday, he wasn’t the only player who saw his season changed in the blink of an eye.

“I was at home in California watching the game as a fan,” Jabari Bird said.

Bird was the 56th overall pick in last June’s NBA Draft. After playing his college ball at the University of California, the Celtics gave the 6-foot-6 swingman a shot to continue his career. After impressing throughout the preseason, Bird was signed to a two-way contract with Boston and returned home to the west coast.

That didn’t last long.

“After the game was over my phone was going off that I had to get on the quickest flight to Boston,” Bird said about opening night. “Got in 7:30 the next morning, suited up against Milwaukee, now I’m here in Philly.”

With the massive hole Hayward left in Boston’s roster due to his injury, the Celtics are going to have to turn to some unlikely performers throughout the season to pick up the slack. Bird didn’t light up the scoreboard or stuff his stat sheet, posting just three points and one rebound in 13 minutes of play. But down the stretch in a close game against the Philadelphia 76ers Friday night, Bird came up big on defense.

As the Celtics trailed the Sixers 61-53 with six minutes remaining in the third quarter, Bird subbed in for Jaylen Brown and was tasked with guarding J.J. Redick, who was in the midst of carrying Philadelphia with his lights out shooting.

After wiping away the Sixers lead and gaining an 86-84 advantage in the fourth quarter, the Celtics still had Bird sticking Redick. The Sixers’ shooting guard — and highest paid player — rose up for another three-point attempt which would’ve given Philadelphia a late lead and a momentum shift at home with a raucous crowd behind them. Only this time, Bird’s hand was in his face and the shot attempt didn’t find the back of the net.

In a big-time moment on the road, for a team facing a potential three-game losing streak to start the season, the unlikely rookie answered the call.

“Like I said before, he’s one of the best shooters in the NBA, really good perimeter scorer,” Bird said of Redick. “For the team to trust me with that responsibility, with us being down on the road needing to get a win, I was hyped up and ready to go. I was ready for the challenge.”

Placing such a responsibility like guarding Redick on a night where it seemed like the Sixers marksman couldn’t miss on a player who was sitting on his couch three nights ago seems like a bold strategy. Head coach Brad Stevens, however, knew what he was doing.

“All the way through preseason and training camp I felt like he was one of our better perimeter defenders,” Stevens said. “I think he has huge upside. His rebounding spoke for itself in preseason practices. His ability to guard off the ball, especially shooters coming off screens is just really good. He’s not afraid, and you knew he’d step up.”

Going from the couch to a red-eye flight from California to Boston, to the bench in Milwaukee, to the court in Philadelphia is nothing short of a whirlwind experience. With such a series of events, it’s hard to be coached into that moment. As a player, sometimes you have to just go out and play.

“I wasn’t prepared at all for tonight. Mentally I just had to lock into the game,” Bird said. “Coach just looked at me and said ‘Bird get Jaylen.’ ‘Alright.’ So that’s what I did.”

After signing Hayward to $127 million contract this summer, the Celtics were expecting the small forward to provide an elite scoring 1-2 scoring punch with Kyrie Irving. Obviously, at least for this season, Boston will need to move forward without that possibility. An opening night loss, followed by another defeat to Milwaukee the following night, had the Celtics 0-2 heading into Philadelphia and searching for answers a lot sooner than they may have anticipated just a week ago.

Bird’s journey during his first week in professional basketball represents how quickly things can change, and how the ripple effects of injuries and other moves have far outreaching waves.

“I was already packed, I was ready to go to the G-League,” Bird said. “We had training camp coming up. My bags were already packed, I was ready to get out the house. Then I got the call to go to Boston and I was like alright I’m ready to go, just gimmie a flight. And that’s what happened.”

All-star point guard, and Bird’s new teammate, Kyrie Irving doesn’t foresee the rookie leaving the clubhouse anytime soon. With the adversity the Boston Celtics have felt in the first week of the 2017-18 season, Bird’s addition and impact are a prime example of being ready when your number is called, and the culture this team is looking to create.

“Jabari is now probably gonna be on every trip with us,” Irving said. “Guys are gonna be called up and called upon to be ready to play. We just have to have that expectation that when we come into the game we’re gonna be able to play, and we trust one another and have each other’s backs.”

Continue Reading

NBA

Mavs Guard Devin Harris on Personal Leave from Team

Basketball Insiders

Published

on

Guard Devin Harris will take an indefinite leave from the Dallas Mavericks after the tragic death of his brother, Bruce.

“I was with him yesterday and just encouraged him that when he’s ready to come on back,” coach Rick Carlisle said. “I don’t know when that will be. He can take as long as he needs.”

Source: Tim MacMahon of ESPN

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending Now