Blackjack Odds, House Edge & Probability Explained

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camerondhaliwal

camerondhaliwal Sports Editor

Cameron has written on sports and poker for 11 years in both a newspaper and online capacity, including with PokerStars and PokerListings. As a proud winning poker player at 50NL on PokerStars who achieved his poker dream by playing finishing 420th in the in the 2023 World Series of Poker's Millionaire Maker, Cameron shares his expert knowledge when writing articles for Basketball Insiders.

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Sports Editor

and

David Myers Gambling Content Editor

David spent 25 years as both a writer and editor within the betting/casino industries - including at The Guardian, Racing Post, 888Casino and Sky Sports Racing - prior to joining BBI. He has a diploma in sub-editing and law, is the author of four books, and remains a successful sports tipster.

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David Myers Fact Checker

Updated 11 Oct 2023

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Working out blackjack odds may seem simple on the surface. A hand often contains only two cards, and the rules are basic enough to get a winning hand in seconds. However, this game is complicated from a closer point of view, and it involves complex odds and probabilities.

It is a numbers game, and understanding how the odds work can help you understand the house edge, learn basic and advanced playing strategies, and play stronger hands for more wins.

Therefore, stay tuned to our comprehensive guide on how blackjack odds and probability work. The guide also includes an overview of the basic blackjack strategy, plus tips on choosing the right blackjack games and casinos – all of them listed are licensed and secure.

Players’ Odds in Blackjack

Players’ odds in blackjack vary based on various factors. Overall, players who have an understanding of strategy and probabilities have much better odds of winning blackjack than those who don’t.

Overall, you can reduce the house edge in blackjack by improving your skills. Here is an overview of four tips to boost your game:

Understand Blackjack Odds & Probability

Blackjack is all about odds and probabilities. Understanding how the numbers work can help you make better mathematical strategies, increasing your probability of winning.

Learn the Basic Blackjack Strategy

Playing blackjack without a strategy is like playing blind. Luck helps now and then, but a reliable strategy is the best way to increase your odds of winning. Fortunately, the basic blackjack strategy is easy to master, and you can develop your own personalized strategy over time.

Choose Games with Liberal Rules

Blackjack rules vary depending on the game version and agreement with the dealer. Some deals can work in your favor, such as the dealer standing on 17. Other noteworthy options include doubling down and surrendering. As such, take some time to review the rules before joining a blackjack table.

Try Card Counting

Card counting is one of the fastest ways of reducing the house edge, and it works well when used with other strategies. It involves tracking the number of high-value cards already dealt, which can help you gauge the dealer’s strengths or weaknesses. Recent statistics show that card counting in blackjack can give players an edge of up to 2% over the house.

Here is a blackjack odds chart showing the player’s probability of busting based on their hand’s value:

Blackjack Odds of Winning

The odds of winning in blackjack are fair, considering the house edge and other variables. They can be as high as 42.22% if you play your cards right. Ties are rare, and the odds of getting into one are about 8.48%. Overall, the odds prove the house’s edge over the players.

These blackjack odds are not set in stone. They fluctuate slightly or considerably depending on various factors, including random chance. You can use a blackjack odds calculator, which is available online, to help you with your strategy based on your blackjack game variation.

Overall, a good strategy is the best way of turning these odds in your favor. Besides blackjack playing strategies, managing your bankroll is also crucial when playing for real money. It would also be prudent to practice with free blackjack games before playing for real money if you are a newbie.

Odds of Winning Blackjack with Unfavorable Hands

Blackjack odds can turn in your favor even when holding unfavorable hands. Here is an overview of the best moves to make when holding tricky hands:

• Hard 16 – hit if the dealer shows a 7 or 8, or surrender if a 9 or 10 comes up.
• 12 vs. Dealer 3 – your chances of busting is less than the dealer and standing gives you a 5% chance of a push, so you are better off taking your chances and hitting.
• 12 vs. Dealer 4 – the dealer has a 40% likelihood of busting, so standing and binding your time is the best move. Alternatively, you can hit and stand a 2% likelihood of a push.
• 15 vs. Dealer 10 – hitting or standing will give you a 22% or 23% likelihood of winning, respectively, so you may as well take the risk and hit.

There is more you can do to improve your blackjack odds when holding a ‘bad hand’. For example, there are many complex decisions to make when holding low-pair cards. The basic blackjack strategy contains solutions to such tricky situations.

Basic Blackjack Strategy

Blackjack is one of the most studied casino games. The odds and probabilities make it somewhat predictable, and this predictability has resulted in a basic blackjack strategy that anyone can use. Here is an overview of the basic blackjack strategy rules:

• Stand on 17 or higher – 17 or higher is a relatively good hand, and there are only a few cards that you can get to improve it. To this end, it is always advisable to stand on 17+.
• Double down on 11 – A hard 11 dealt on the first two cards is one of the best hands. You can double down to maximize your hand’s strength and overall winning hands in the long term.
• Never split 10s – Two 10s make a 20, one of the best hands for winning at blackjack, so splitting it doesn’t make sense.
• Split Aces and 8s – Splitting a pair of 8s and Aces is always the best move, regardless of what the dealer is holding. Splitting 9s is also advisable unless the dealer has a 7, 10, or Ace, in which case you should stand.
• Stand with 12 on dealer’s 4, 5, or 6 – You should only stand with 12 when the dealer has a 4, 5, or 6. However, hitting is the best move in all other situations because you can land a strong hand.
• Stand with 13 -16 if the dealer’s 2 – 6 – 13 through 16 are common hands in blackjack, and it is best to stand if the dealer shows a 2 through 6. However, you can hit if the dealer holds a higher card or surrender when holding a 16 against the dealer’s Ace, 9, or 10.
• Hit on Ace-7 for a dealer’s Ace, 9, or 10 – An Ace-7 is a strong hard, but hitting is wise if the dealer holds anything higher than 8 because they can manage a hand stronger than 18.

There are more blackjack strategies based on other diverse hand formations. The following strategy chart contains more tips to help improve your blackjack odds:

Practicing these strategies can help you understand and memorize the chart – you can refer to this chart when playing free blackjack online. However, it is worth noting that random chance can get in the way of your blackjack strategies.

Blackjack Payout

The dream deal is to get blackjack on your first two cards, however, how much you win will depend on the payout rules of the table. The three variations usually offered are 3:2, 6:5 or even money and these impact the house edge as shown below:

House Edge – What is It?

Everyone has heard of the phrase ‘the house always wins’ and this is based on a simple concept known as the house edge.

The house edge refers to a statistical advantage that every casino has over players. It means that the casino registers more wins than players in the long term. The house has an ‘edge’, that is, a mathematical advantage, over players in all casino games, including blackjack, poker, slots, and more. However, despite the house edge, good players can use reliable gaming strategies to register more wins than the casino.

Blackjack House Edge

Fortunately, the house edge in blackjack is relatively low – lower than almost all other games. It ranges between 0.2% and 0.5% based on the blackjack game version, giving you a good probability of winning if you play your cards well.

The house’s edge in blackjack mostly comes from the fact that players act before the dealer. This enables the dealer to counter the players’ strengths and exploit their weaknesses. It is also worth noting that the house always wins without doing anything every time a player busts.

The house edge is indisputable. However, it doesn’t matter much to good players because the casino mostly earns its edge through beginners or non-strategic players with more losses than wins.

Dealer’s Bust Probability

The dealer is always more likely to win under ideal conditions. However, you can still have higher odds of winning at blackjack in some situations, depending on the blackjack variation and rules. For example, winning against a dealer who must stand on 17 is easier than one who must hit on the same position.

Here is a blackjack odds table showing the dealer’s probability of busting depending on the card they hold:

Choosing the Right Blackjack Game

Blackjack comes in different variations. Some variations offer better blackjack winning odds than others, and choosing the right game is one of the best winning strategies. There are even No Bust Blackjack games that you can explore. Here is an overview of six factors to consider when choosing the right blackjack game:

Single Deck

The casino’s house edge increases as you play more decks. To this end, you are at a lesser disadvantage when playing games with single decks.

Double Down Available

Not all blackjack versions support doubling down, which is a common move in the basic blackjack strategy. Doubling your stakes for an extra card lowers the house’s edge and increases your odds of winning, so check whether the option is available.

Double Down after Splitting

Doubling down after splitting two same-value cards can also boost your blackjack odds of winning. However, this option isn’t available in some blackjack variations, so always check before joining a new game.

Blackjack Pays 3:2

A 3:2 payout for a perfect 21 pair is the best payout possible. However, many casinos offer a 6:5 payout instead, which can be disappointing.

Dealer Stands on Soft 17

The dealer standing on 17 can affect the house edge by up to 0.2%, giving you a higher likelihood of winning. It should be one of the first things to consider before entering a game as it also affects the basic blackjack strategy – it is usually indicated at the top of every blackjack table.

Surrender

Losing is an inevitable part of playing blackjack, regardless of how good you may be. Fortunately, you can limit your losses by half by surrendering if you are in a helpless situation – it can especially come in handy when playing high-stakes. However, blackjack surrendering is not an option in some game variations.

Play at the Best Blackjack Casinos Online

House odds blackjack varies from one game version and online casino to the next as does the game’s quality. To this end, choosing a good blackjack online casino should be a core part of your overall blackjack strategy. If you enjoy playing live blackjack with Bitcoin, check out our guide to the Best Bitcoin Live Blackjack Sites.

Finding the best casino can be tricky if you don’t know what to look for. Here is an overview of five important features to look for in a good casino:

• Gaming Software – Good gaming software makes for crystal-clear, smooth-flowing graphics, which make for an immersive and enjoyable gaming experience.
• Blackjack Variations – Blackjack games come in different versions, and some casinos offer more than others. Ideally, the casino should offer all available blackjack versions to expand your playing options.
• Promotions – Promotions and bonuses can go a long way, whether on a winning or losing streak. Most casinos offer promotions, so consider the offer size and requirements.
• Payment Methods & Policies – Online casinos accept diverse payment methods, including online wallets, cryptocurrencies, and credit cards. Their payment policies also vary, including withdrawal times and fees.
• Licensing – Licensed casinos are more trustworthy than unlicensed ones.

It’s also another wise move to practice some hands of blackjack before playing with real money, just so you get a good idea of working out blackjack odds when playing live. Therefore, why not check out the free blackjack games online:

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Conclusion on Blackjack Odds

Understanding how blackjack odds and probabilities work can help make the game easier and more enjoyable. More importantly, it can help boost your blackjack best odds, enabling you to increase your wins and reduce your losses. Anyone can do it with some learning and practice.

Fortunately, learning blackjack is easy and enjoyable, and you can play as many free games as you want at numerous online casinos. Finally, remember to choose the right blackjack game and casino for the best playing experience.

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