Bram Welch has been writing about sports betting and iGaming for over five years now, starting as a freelancer before joining our team. Previously he worked teaching English as a foreign language and as a journalist for the UK's largest regional newspaper.
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Neil is a gambling industry veteran with over 15 years experience as a content writer, editor and speaker at events. He has a Masters degree in English Literature and Philosophy and has combined this analytical inquisitiveness with a passion for sports betting and casino gaming. Neil started his career with Bettingpro.com and helped build not only that site but various others such as LiveTennis.com, LiveDarts.com and numerous other sports informational sites, including GG.co.uk and RacingTips.com He then made the transition to the North American market, working both in the UK and in New Jersey to launch various sports betting and casino sites, including AmericanBettingExperts and NewAmericanCasinos. Working with regulators, Neil has helped to review sports betting sites and also test the regulated betting apps in a professional capacity. He now works almost exclusively in the US market and is one of the main reviewers and fact checkers on SportsLens gambling content. He also speaks at various gambling conferences including ICE, iGB Live and SBC Americas and has contributed to GamblingInsider, EGR Magazine and a number of others in a consulting capacity.
All posts by Neil RoartyOutright betting typically refers to betting on the overall winner of a sporting competition. Often called as such because the bettor is wagering who will win that league or competition outright. However, it can include other bets settled over a longer period. For instance, outright betting markets in basketball could involve the winner of the championship or the MVP award-winner. In horse racing, it refers to any bets placed before the day of a race and before the markets open. So, what is outright betting in a nutshell? Betting on the eventual winner of a sporting league, cup or competition.
Pros and Cons of Outright Betting
There are some compelling reasons for you to start looking into outright betting markets but there are also some pitfalls. We’ve put together some of the stand-out positives and negatives of outright betting.
Pros:
- The markets are uncomplicated.
- Odds tend to be higher.
- You can take advantage of odds before events change them.
- Not as susceptible to freak incidents.
Cons:
- Competitions can change at the drop of a hat.
- The potential value has dropped in recent years.
- There is a longer wait on your return.
Do Outright Betting Markets Offer Value?
Outright betting markets offer value by providing longer odds than on a single match – especially when it comes to backing the favorites. Successfully wagering on an underdog is also a way to garner value from outright bets, although this value has decreased in recent years.
Outright Betting on Underdogs
Leicester City won the 2015-16 Premier League soccer season as +50,000 outsiders. They only lost three games and won the entire competition by 10 points, beating off favorites and more established opponents like Chelsea and Manchester City. There were stories of fans who were set to win life-changing amounts of money, if, their comparatively small club won one of the most prestigious competitions in the sport.
Ever since this feat, outright betting odds for underdogs are noticeably lower but still hold potential value. Luton gained promotion from the EFL Championship in 2023 to compete in the 2023/24 Premier League season. Before the season started, the odds for them to win outright were +30,000. That is still clearly a huge win if successful but remains nearly half of Leicester’s odds, despite Leicester competing in the Premier League the season before winning, whereas Luton had not played top-flight English football since 1992.
Outright Betting on Favorites
Betting on favorites to win competitions outright is more valuable than betting on them in individual matches. Sportsbooks accept that there are many more variables across a season compared to a match. For example, the odds of the Denver Nuggets beating Oklahoma City Thunder in a Western Conference game will be much shorter than on Denver Nuggets winning the division.
Exercise caution when backing favorites though, as anything can change a season. Boston Celtics are strong favorites to win the 2024 Eastern Conference, which could seem like a safe bet. Imagine that Malcolm Brogdon tears his ACL, Jayson Tatum suffers a stress fracture in his foot, and Jaylen Brown breaks his arm, would you still take that outright bet?
Can You Hedge an Outright Bet?
Yes, you could use hedging techniques on an outright bet. Hedging an outright bet is when you wager on two opposing outcomes in the hope of reducing a potential loss. It requires the use of a betting exchange for lay bets.
Image Source: BetOnline.ag Boston Celtics are +200 to win the 2024 Eastern Conference so let’s say you bet $100 for a $300 win. They are successful within their division but Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks challenge them for the conference title causing their odds to increase and the lay odds to fall.
Lay bets on a betting exchange work differently from normal bets because they come with a liability. You could lose more than your initial stake. The calculation for liability is Stake * (Odds -1). So you must hedge your outright bet with lay bets at the right odds. In order to, guarantee you don’t lose on the example Celtic outright bet, you need to lay against them winning the Eastern Conference outright at 1.25.
Outright Betting Markets in Different Sports
Using outright betting markets differs from one sport to the next. The process of winning the NBA finals is completely different from reaching the Super Bowl or winning the Ryder Cup.
NBA Outright Markets
The NBA can be a great opportunity to bet on outright markets. You could explore outright winner markets for the division, conference, and championship titles. There are 82 games in the regular season, and the ultimate winner will have to play at least 98 to get there, with so many games anything can happen. The last decade saw unexpected champions in the form of the Dallas Mavericks at odds of +2,000 before the 10-11 season, the Golden State Warriors at +2,800 in 2014, and The Toronto Raptors who were +1,850.
NFL Outright Markets
The NFL season is much shorter in terms of games played but American football offers a plethora of potential outright markets. The best NFL betting sites have a huge list of player outright bets. Just like with the NBA, you could also go for outright markets on the division winner, conference winner, and of course the Super Bowl winner.
Outright Markets in Golf
Golf is a great sport for outright betting for a few reasons. Professional golf is competed through a series of tournaments known as tours so there are a plethora of outright champion markets available. There are also a large number of competitors in a golf tour, for example, the 2023 PGA Championship has 90 entrants. There are no eliminations in golf tours so, in theory, at any time during a tour, any one of the players competing could win.
Outright Markets in Tennis
The Tennis season is also made up of a series of tournaments throughout the year and many competitors enter one tournament. This gives you multiple chances to bet on the outright winner. Unlike golf, the tournaments, or opens, are typically knockout so the pool of players can shrink quickly. Your options outside of the tournament winner in Tennis include wagering who will be the top seed player and circuit winner.
Horse Racing Ante-Post Outright Betting
Outright betting can refer to ante-post betting on horse racing. These are any bets placed on the outcome of the race before the day of the race itself. It is different to a starting price bet which is placed as soon as the market opens. In ante-post betting, if your horse does not run, your stake is forfeited rather than returned.
Different Types of Outright Bets
When you are outright betting, it doesn’t always have to be on the overall winner. There are other markets to explore, some of which are based on success but others that wager on the demise of a team. The outright markets that are available vary from one sport to the next.
Relegation
Essentially the opposite option to outright winners. In most countries their leagues are competitive and there is the possibility that teams can be relegated into a division below the one they currently compete in. These are an option for outright bets, for example, you could bet that Celta Viga will be relegated from La Liga at the end of the season.
Team Finish Position
There is an opportunity to increase the odds by being more specific with your selection. Wager on the position of a team in their league at the end of the season. You can also extend this to bet on whether they will qualify for a via their league position. This could be qualifying for the playoffs or a continental competition, for example.
Origin of Champions
An outright bet that applies to MLB and worldwide competitions. In MLB betting you can bet on which division the world series winner will come from. In the Fifa World Cup, you could outright bet on which continent the winner will hail from.
Player Outright Markets
The number of player outright markets changes so much from one sport to the next. In the NFL, your options include the player with the most rushing touchdowns, the rookie with the most rushing touchdowns, and the quarterback with the most rushing touchdowns. You could outright bet on which player will have the most combined rush and receiving touchdowns and which players will have over 40 passing touchdowns at the end of the season. That is just the touchdown options. The NBA also hands out player awards that are outright bets. Wager on the sixth man of the year, clutch player of the year, and defensive player of the year.
Next Manager To Leave Post
You can find outright markets for which manager will be relieved of their post next. When things aren’t going well for a team or sportsperson all eyes tend to turn to one person – the one on the touchline. The high-pressure environment and demand from fans can lead to clubs firing a head coach or manager. Since April 1996, when D.C. United played the first MLS match, Watford F.C. in England have had 26 full-time managers compared to DC United’s eight during the same period.
Do Outright Markets Have Cash Out?
Yes, if the sportsbook offers a cash out feature, they will likely allow you to cash out on outright bets. It is possible that you could use this to your advantage and benefit from unexpected changes. For example, Wolverhampton Wanderers were in a relegation battle during the 2022/23 Premier League season. You think they were lucky to escape and so you bet $100 on them to go down at the end of the 2023/24 season with +500 odds for a $600 return and $500 profit.
Image Source: MegaDice.com During the close season, Wolverhampton Wanderers sell their vice-captain, their main goalscorer, their best ball-carrier, an experienced competition winner, a slew of promising youngsters to rival teams, and their top-performing player & captain to the Saudi league. They also do not bring in any new faces to replace them. Fast forward to a day before the season starts and the odds on Wolverhampton Wanderers getting relegated are now -476. You may be able to cash out earlier so check the my bets section of your account – provided the sportsbook you use allows for this feature.
Outright Betting Strategies
The results of outright bets are further off into the future than with single-game betting. Make sure you don’t spend that entire time fretting the result by following these tips and tricks.
Look Beyond Winner Markets – We have listed some potential outright markets you could explore outside of the outright winner. There are options specific to a sport as well as ones that apply across different sports. Consider some of these markets and expand your purview of outright markets.
Consider Outsiders – Betting on the favorites may lead to more success but you will get better outright betting odds and therefore a potentially bigger return on your stake when you back an outsider.
Knockout vs League – Outright betting on league competitions is different from knockout tournaments. Across an entire season, the overall best team across all of the matches is likely to come out on top. Whereas anything can happen in knockout games. The USA women’s team were absolute favorites in the run-up to the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup and even took part in an ad campaign to that effect.
When the tournament came around, they crashed out in the first knockout round. Whereas, at the 2016 UEFA European Football Championships, Portugal were +3,400 outsiders going through a transitional stage with a squad of aging stars and unprepared youngsters. They managed to come out as outright winners despite only winning one match in 90 minutes. This shows that in tournament soccer, you never know what could happen.
Timing Is Key – Taking advantage of better odd positions before the season starts is a great benefit of outright betting. Back your pick for outright winner before their odds shorten or any other changes affect the odds. This could be your chance to back the Denver Nuggets before they draft Christian Braun and trade in Peyton Watson or back Real Madrid to win La Liga before they spend $300 million on players.
Look at History – Serena Williams has won 23 grand slam tennis titles, Sir Steve Redgrave won gold medals at five Olympic games, and Floyd Mayweather has won 50 out of 50 boxing matches. Using previous performances can be a great guide while placing outright bets. It is more appropriate for individual sports because you are backing the same person.
In team sports, the squad could change so much that historic success does not necessarily equal future success. Even the Bulls team with Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippin didn’t win every championship.
Be Certain and Be Patient – Once you have placed an outright bet, you will need to have patience as you wait for the result. You could be waiting for up to a year for your outright bet to come in. This is why you must also be sure of the bet you place, any uncertainty could fester as you wait for the result.
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