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2019 NBA Draft Trade Recap

Drew Maresca revisits a crazy night of trades during the 2019 NBA Draft and offers his analysis on the moves.

Drew Maresca

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The 2019 NBA Draft started off with more trade activity than expected as most experts even predicted a record-breaking night as far as trades were concerned. With many big-name stars on the move pre-draft, rumors galore and the pending free agency period, all 30 teams were looking to maneuver in a way that best suited their current course of action. But when the dust eventually settled, the final count ended at an above-average total of 12 draft night trades. Here is a comprehensive list of all of the deals agreed to on draft night.

Atlanta: Acquired the fourth overall pick from New Orleans and selected De’Andre Hunter, along with the 57th overall pick (Jordan Bone) a future second-round pick and Solomon Hill

New Orleans: Traded down for the eighth (Jaxon Hayes), 17th (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) and 35th overall picks (Marcos Louzada Silva), as well as a protected 2020 first-round pick (via Cleveland).

This move clearly benefits the Hawks by sending them a top-tier talent. Hunter gives Atlanta a talented two-way player who is a capable shooter and defender. He will join Trae Young, John Collins and Kevin Huerter and Cam Reddish on a strong, young team, thus speeding up the timeline on the rebuild significantly.

Hunter, the centerpiece of the trade, is an elite 3-and-D guy. He should have an immediate impact on the Hawks given his length and noteworthy defensive versatility.

Elsewhere, the Pelicans were able to net two prospects that they like while clearing Hill’s salary, freeing up significant salary cap space immediately. They felt that they didn’t have to make the fourth selection considering they drafted Zion Williamson with the first overall pick minutes earlier.

Additionally, the Pelicans may also consider packaging a number of their 2019 draft picks for an established star or, perhaps, even sign one outright thanks to their new, lighter salary cap situation.

Minnesota: Acquired the sixth overall pick (Jarrett Culver)

Phoenix: Traded down for Dario Saric and the 11th overall pick (Cameron Johnson)

The Timberwolves clearly had eyes for Culver — and why wouldn’t they? Culver is a solid player that can score in bunches. He prides himself on his defensive abilities and projects well as a complete player who can help a team without requiring too many touches.

The Suns were obviously enamored with Saric, that much is clear. Ultimately, their selection of Johnson is a bit puzzling considering his injury history (hips), age (23) and where he was rated as a prospect (widely-viewed as a late first-rounder at the earliest); but the Suns clearly saw something. Maybe the Suns thought they had enough backcourt assets with Devin Booker and Mikal Bridges — typically, however, when a young team has an opportunity to draft a player like Culver, they capitalize on it.

Philadelphia: Acquired the 20th overall pick (Matisse Thybulle).

Boston: Traded back for the 24th (Ty Jerome) and 33rd (Carsen Edwards) overall picks

*Jerome was later traded to Phoenix along with Aaron Baynes for a 2020 first-round pick (via Milwaukee).

The Celtics were clearly not overly-sold on any prospects available in the 20-24 range. During the draft, allegedly, Boston was hoping to consolidate picks and move up. And when that didn’t come to fruition, they had to decide if they really wanted to bring on so many rookies.

Philadelphia potentially acquired the best perimeter defender in the draft in Thybulle. There were rumors they were interested in Nassir Little and Kevin Porter Jr., but they pounced when they realized Thybulle was available — in turn, the 76ers received an immediate impact player.

Phoenix’s acquisition of Jerome makes sense. Jerome is a 6-foot-5 point guard that shot over 40 percent from three-point range in his three-year career at Virginia — and the Suns, of course, are in need of a point guard. He distributes the ball well for a combo guard, but can he develop in as a true point guard? The Suns will hope so.

Further, giving up the 2020 Milwaukee pick after trading away the sixth overall pick was curious. Presumably, the Suns figured that Giannis Antetokounmpo stays in Milwaukee, the Bucks remain dominant in the Eastern Conference and that 2020 first-round pick turns out to be lower than 24.

Memphis: Acquired the 21st overall pick (via Utah) and selected Brandon Clarke

Oklahoma City: Traded down to the 23rd overall pick and selected Darius Bazley

The Grizzlies added Clarke to their young core, which also includes rookie phenom Ja Morant and the promising Jaren Jackson Jr. They should grow together nicely and Clarke’s extreme athleticism should fit perfectly with Morant. Clarke is also an elite defender, which means that the Grizzlies now have two potential defensive stoppers in him and Jackson Jr. Clarke is a relatively-high IQ guy that is poised and deliberate — on the court and in his interactions with the media — which usually bodes well for both the player and the team.

For the Thunder, this deal was all about savings. Oklahoma City is well over the salary cap and trying to mitigate spending as much as possible. While trading away Clarke hurts, it’s a means to an end.

Los Angeles Clippers: Acquired the 27th overall pick and selected Mfiondu Kabengele

Brooklyn: Received a future first-round pick (via Philadelphia) and the 56th overall pick (Jaylen Hands)

The Nets did not want to add any guaranteed salary given their pursuit of two max salary cap slots, hence the trade of another first-round pick.

And while the Clippers are also seeking two max slots, they are far enough below the cap that the 27th pick doesn’t hurt their pursuit of cap space.

Hands is an explosive point guard and an above-average defender. He uses his above-average quickness effectively and possesses an NBA-level shooting range. On the other end, Kabengele just adds to the Clippers’ young core, a shrewd pick-up that just won his conference’s Sixth Man of the Year award in 2018-19 — think Los Angeles could use another player like that?

You betcha.

Cleveland: Acquired the 30th overall pick (Kevin Porter Jr.)

Detroit: Received four future second-round picks and cash considerations

Not including Bol Bol, Porter Jr. probably had the biggest drop of all the top prospects. But he was ultimately selected with the last pick in the first round due to the Cavaliers trading up. He’s viewed as a steal at No. 30 at this point in time, rightfully so given his raw potential. Still, there are maturity concerns regarding Porter Jr. that must be addressed. He will likely be given room to grown and learn on the fly in Cleveland, but he must make good decisions both on and off the court. 29 teams passed on Porter Jr., so it’s up to him to prove them wrong.

And if Detroit is among the teams that had doubts about Porter Jr., they received a fair amount of compensation for the right to pick him — future second-rounders and $5 million in case. Could Porter Jr. have helped Detroit? Possibly. But given the doubts around him, the Pistons made a prudent decision.

Washington: Acquired Jonathan Simmons and the 42nd overall pick (Admiral Schofield).

Philadelphia: Received cash considerations

The 76ers clearly wanted to move Simmons. They traded away the rights to Admiral Schofield to get out of Simmons’ contract, which helps free up additional salary cap space — the 76ers are rumored to be interested in offering Tobias Harris and Jimmy Butler max deals come free agency — and they need all the space the can get.

The Wizards, on the other hand, are stuck between rebuilding and competing — although competing seems challenging given the John Wall injury history and contract. So if trading for a player whose deal expires following the 2019-20 season is the cost to bring on Schofield, that’s a penalty the Wizards were willing to incur.

Schofield is a good shooter and scores well in the post. He projects to be similar to Jae Crowder, assuming all works out well for him. As a competitive gamer, Schofield will help the Wizards immediately on the offensive end. He’s likely to give up some height on defense, given that he’s a small forward — however, his grit and athleticism should help him keep pace.

Miami: Acquired the 32nd overall pick (KZ Okpala)

Suns: Received three future second-round picks

KZ Okpala projects to be similar to Rodney Hood, which is clearly not a bad thing given how Hood played in the 2019 NBA Playoffs. Okpala is super athletic and has good measurements of 6-foot-8 and 195 lbs. He can run the floor, handle the ball and is an above-average shot-maker. He needs to improve a bit defensively, but Miami will work with him on this.

The Suns could have used Okapala, as could most teams. But at the same time, three second-round picks can be a pretty big haul too. And the Suns, like many other teams selling second-rounders, already have their share of youth, which presents unique challenges.

Denver: Acquired the 44th overall pick (Bol Bol)

Miami: Received a future second-round pick and cash considerations

Bol Bol was projected as high as the lottery — but his night did not pan out how he would’ve liked. Nevertheless, any time a team identifies a prospect as someone of interest, that prospect should be thankful.

Bol was always going to be a risky selection given his foot injury, his extremely slim build and his surprisingly-high body fat percentage. Still, Bol Bol offers skills not previously seen in a player his size. He shoots incredibly well from three-point range and can grow into an above-average shot blocker. And given the Nuggets’ depth, they can bring him along slowly. Their player development team has their hands full with a guy whose drive and desire have been questioned — but the upside is not in doubt.

Los Angeles Lakers: Acquired the 46th overall pick (Talen Horton-Tucker)

Orlando: Received cash considerations

This move was a must-have for the Lakers, who are in need of cheap talent. If Los Angeles is serious about chasing a third max free agent, Horton-Tucker is solid fit — both rotationally and financially.

Horton-Tucker is a strong guard who boasts a ridiculous 7-foot-1 wingspan (considering he’s only 6-foot-4). He can defend both guard positions, allowing him to have an immediate impact if need be. Further, he doesn’t turn 19 years-old until November, which means he has more time than most to mature and develop.

The Magic were clearly more interested in the cash than they were in on-boarding another rookie.

Golden State: Received the 39th overall pick (Alen Smailagic)

New Orleans: Received two future second-round picks and cash considerations 

Smailagic is an 18 -year-old shooter from Serbia that the Warriors monitored/hid in the G League last season as he was too young and ineligible for the NBA Draft. He was kept away from most showcases last year and the Warriors cashed in on draft night. He averaged 9.1 points last season for the Santa Cruz Warriors.

The Pelicans, on the other hand, are already committed to developing four rookies. In the end, they did not need a fifth, especially considering the number of other young players who still need guidance, too — e.g., Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball.

Detroit: Acquired the 57th overall pick (Jordan Bone) 

New Orleans: Received cash considerations

Jordan Bone took a chance after relatively-disappointing freshmen and sophomore seasons with Tennessee. It paid off when Detroit traded for the 57th overall pick, using it to select Bone. The speedy guard averaged 16.3 points and 7.1 assists per game last season for the Volunteers. Bone led the third-most efficient offense in the country last year, which bodes well for a player who will likely struggle to find a spot immediately.

As far as the Pelicans are concerned, it makes sense that they would trade away the 57th overall pick considering they traded away the 39th too.

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NBA Daily: Ivica Zubac Rounding Into Form For Clippers

David Yapkowitz writes about Ivica Zubac and his strong bubble performances for the Los Angeles Clippers – is he the key for a deep postseason run?

David Yapkowitz

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The Los Angeles Clippers have no shortage of star power. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George form one of the most dangerous duos in the NBA, and both Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell are averaging close to 20 points a game each while coming off the bench.

But there is one player on the roster who might be the team’s X-Factor, one player who could hold the key to being able to withstand the imposing frontline of the Los Angeles Lakers – and that’s Ivica Zubac.

Zubac was once a Laker before he was casually tossed aside to the Clippers at last season’s trade deadline. He had shown flashes of his capabilities with the Lakers but spent most of his first couple of seasons in the league with the Lakers’ G League affiliate. Upon his arrival to the Clippers, he immediately became a key player and has since settled into the starting center role.

His arrival to the NBA’s restart bubble in Orlando was initially held up as he had tested positive for COVID-19. He has since joined the team after a mandatory quarantine period and is looking ready to help the team as they gear up for a playoff run.

He admitted that although he only experienced mild symptoms from the virus, he still felt winded and not quite up to speed as he tried to ease himself back into regular game flow.

“It’s much better, it’s much better than when I got here. I can feel it getting better with each practice, each game,” Zubac said on a recent conference call with media.

“After I first started getting back in shape, after I was cleared, I felt like I was out of shape. My chest was a little tighter when I would do some stuff. But I feel great right now. I don’t feel anything. I’m getting back into shape, I’m almost there. It’s going to take some more time.”

Zubac feeling like his old self again has been evident with each passing game. He started slow, only finishing with two points and three rebounds against the Lakers while being outworked by Anthony Davis. Against the New Orleans Pelicans, he looked a bit better, especially with his effort on the glass.

In the Clippers’ third game of the restart against the Phoenix Suns, Zubac put up 18 points and 12 rebounds while shooting 77 percent from the field. He followed that up with his best bubble game to date with 21 points on a perfect 10-for-10 shooting and 15 rebounds against the Dallas Mavericks.

Zubac equated his increased production with gradually regaining his conditioning and mobility and getting the feel again for regular game speed.

“I’m getting the feel, I’m starting to remember what guys like, what are the best spots on the court for me. My conditioning is getting better each practice, each game,” Zubac told media after the Mavericks game. “I’m feeling like I can stay on the floor for a while, I can run the floor, I can fight in the post with guys, I can rebound. Everything with my conditioning getting back, I can get on another level in every aspect of my game.”

Before his performance against the Mavericks, Zubac had a pretty solid game against the Suns – but the center was obviously still readjusting to his teammates and being able to make the right reads and be in the correct spots on the floor. He played solid defense on Deandre Ayton, but he also ended up having a costly turnover late in the game that set up Devin Booker’s eventual game-winner.

Following the Suns game, Clippers head coach Doc Rivers had mentioned there were a few areas that Zubac could use improvement in, and he was much more effusive in his praise after his performance against the Mavericks.

“He was phenomenal. We talked about it, he did all the things we needed, he really ran the floor, that didn’t show up statistically, but what it did, it created space, it created mismatches,” Rivers told media after the game.

“I loved that our guys were looking for him. I thought his rebounding was fantastic. Really coming off the way we ended the game the other day with Zu, then coming back, playing like that, that was fantastic for his confidence.”

Throughout the season, Zubac has been a player that doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective. He does have a soft touch around the rim and can establish a strong position in the post, but he does a lot of damage when he’s rolling to the rim, cutting and moving without the ball and catching lobs from his teammates.

He’s also a good rebounder who gets points off of offensive putbacks, and he’s a solid defender who acts as the team’s interior defensive anchor. He’s also usually on the bench at the end of games when Harrell is in with the starters. But depending on potential matchups, perhaps against the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic, or even the Lakers and Davis, Zubac could find himself finishing some games.

What is certain though, is he’s proving his importance to the team and he’s showing that come playoff time, he could end up being the X-factor. He knows that his teammates are going to look for him and he’s ready for that.

“It’s just communication on the floor, knowing what Kawhi and P.G like, knowing how to get a better angle on a screen, just the plays we run, got to have a better understanding what’s good at the time. It’s mostly communication on the floor,” Zubac said. “It feels great to get rewarded by my teammates after doing all the hard work.”

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Free Agency Update: Changes In The Bubble

Drew Maresca explores the free agency implications of the first week of play in the bubble as the NBA continues its return to post COVID-19 play.

Drew Maresca

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Free agency is always a fun time for the NBA and its fans, but particularly so in 2020. Most free agents have usually earned their next deal by the 65th game of any given season – but this year is far from typical. Instead, the NBA has returned, sans its eight worst teams, meaning that competition is consistently better. And with limited competition for our attention, every game is a major event that draws more eyes and has a greater effect on the paydays of to-be free agents.

We’re still only three or four games into the official return of the NBA, but there have already been some changes to how we perceive some players. Take T.J. Warren, for example, who’s averaging over 39.7 points per game through three contests. Or Michael Porter Jr., who looks more like the focal point of a team than a player in his first year of professional action.

This article will focus explicitly on the changes in perception of free agents to-be as a result of their play in the bubble in Orlando.  We understand that the players listed below can still hurt their standings and that teams rate free agents differently. While the sample size is small, we’ve seen deals made based on an equally small body of work (e.g., Jerome James to the New York Knicks).

One caveat to keep in mind is the unprecedented fiscal challenges facing the NBA and its club in 2020. Not only will the COVID-19 pandemic inevitably hurt the 2020-21 salary cap, but there’s also still a conclusion to be had with the preseason China situation.

With all of that in mind, let’s explore the players that have made the loudest cases for a payday come this offseason.

The Stars

Mike Conley Jr., Utah Jazz – Player Option

Conley Jr. has a player option for 2020-21 – but he played poorly enough through March, relative to what we’ve come to expect from him, that it was more than reasonable to assume he would opt-in at $34.5 million.

But wait, there’s a chance that Conley does us all a favor and makes free agency 2020 more interesting. Conley’s averaged 19.8 points and 5.8 assists per game, way, way up from 13.8 points and 4.3 assists per game prior to the stoppage in March. If Conley keeps this going – and especially if he performs well in the playoffs – he might want to test the market considering the lack of elite talent that’s anticipated to hit it – assuming he’s unhappy in Utah, that is.

Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans – RFA

Ingram’s looked similar to the guy we saw in 2019-20 before the play stoppage – he’s averaging 23.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game when playing 30 or more minutes. While he was less effective in a loss against the Clippers (14 points and two rebounds in 24 minutes), he’s demonstrated growth in how decisively he makes his move and how seamlessly he then scores on the move.

Ingram was probably going to get max offer as of the All-Star break – especially after reaching his first All-Star team at 22 – but COVID-19 probably altered the ability for teams to dole out lucrative deals. But then play resumed and Ingram picked up right where he left off – and with a confidence to use it liberally. Ingram is nearly a lock for a max deal now.

Fred VanVleet, Toronto Raptors – UFA

VanVleet started off his time in the bubble with a solid performance (13 points and 11 assists), but he really showed out in his second game against the Miami HEAT. VanVleet led the Raptors to a win against Miami with a career-high 36 points. And then he got right back to being Mr. Consistent for Toronto by posting 21 points and 10 assists in a win against Orlando.

So ultimately, VanVleet has led the Raptors to a 3-0 (re)start, and he’s either scored a career-high or dropped 10-plus assists. James Dolan and Leon Rose are somewhere together – albeit socially distanced, we’re sure – drooling – as are all of the teams in need of a lead guard, like Detroit. VanVleet can only increase his value from here. He’s not assumed to be a max-level player, but if he plays well enough through the playoffs, it’ll be interesting to see just how high he can reach.

 DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio Spurs – Player Option

It’s hard to imagine DeRozan’s value increasing much at this point in his career. After all, he’s an 11-year veteran that has been named to the All-Star Game four times and an All-NBA team twice.

But still, there’s always been presumed limitations to his game, namely his inability to shoot three-pointers. Since being traded to San Antonio, he’s fallen out of the national spotlight a bit. As a 31-year-old capable of reaching unrestricted free agency, DeRozan is at a major inflection point in his career. He could attempt to a final big deal or snag a smaller one if the market for his services doesn’t meet expectations. Or he could just opt-in.

But DeRozan has done his part to remind everyone that he has loads of high-quality basketball left in him. He tallied 30 points on 11-for-20 shooting on Tuesday in a close loss to the 76ers and he’s averaged 22.3 points, 7.3 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game since the Spurs resumed play last Friday. While those averaged mostly coincide with what he did this season, it also represents a decent boost in assists. But more importantly, it solidifies that DeRozan should still receive a serious look as a lead star. And he’ll probably get interest from a number of teams.

The Known Commodities

Marcus Morris Sr., Los Angeles Clippers – UFA

While Morris Sr. is a known commodity, teams could use additional poor performances against him in negotiations. He’ll probably still have the option to sign for a veterans minimum or mid-level exception with a contender like the Clippers or Lakers. But if he’s eyeing another payday that pays him an annual salary equal to what he made in 2019-20, it would behoove him to make his mark on the stat book. 

Making A Case

Trey Burke, Dallas Mavericks – UFA

Burke hasn’t been overly consistent since NBA play resumed last week. But he did have a huge breakout game against the Rockets, scoring 31 points on 8-for-10 for three-pointers in only 30 minutes, while also dishing six assists.

Yes, Burke is averaging just 5.5 points in 18 minutes in the two games since, but the fact that he scored 31 in an NBA game will be enough to get looks as an off-the-bench scorer. And it’s a narrative that can be supported by his past work, too. Remember, Burke is still just 27-years-old  and he has a 42-point career-high. He’s also exploded for 30 four times and eclipsed the 20-point mark on 38 occasions in his 389 career games. So even if it’s just a reminder, it’s good to know that Burke can still get it done offensively – and teams are always looking for ways to manufacture offense.

Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz – UFA

Clarkson’s shot only 40 percent from the field since play resumed last Thursday, with an even worse 20 percent from three-point range. Still, scorers are as valuable as ever. It’s what made J.R. Smith so much money in this league, as well as Lou Williams and countless others – and rightfully so. Ultimately, it’s about putting the ball in the hoop. And with that being said, a franchise is going to pay Clarkson and they’ll end up paying more than they would have as of March.

Reggie Jackson, Los Angeles Clippers – UFA

Jackson has less to prove than most guys in this part of this list – but given his injury history, he does have to make a statement.

On the whole, Jackson has looked good – but not necessarily great. He averaged 12.5 points, seven rebounds and two assists in his first two contests, but he regressed in the Clippers’ most recent game against the Suns. But on a positive note, Jackson received only 23 minutes on Tuesday versus Phoenix and his 15 points on 5-for-9 shooting, eight rebounds, two assists and two steals accumulated in just 20 minutes.

If Jackson continues to be a contributor to the contending Clippers, someone will overspend on him. After all, good point guards are few and far between.

The Unknowns

Harry Giles III, Sacramento Kings – UFA

Giles III only played four minutes in the Kings’ first game back against the Spurs and he didn’t fare much better over 12:55 versus the Mavericks on Tuesday. But when you’re a fringe player that had injury concerns throughout your young career, any positive outings are good – especially those that come in a contract year. Giles tallied 23 points and eight rebounds in only 20 minutes against the Orlando Magic – a significant jump from his 7.2 points and 4.2 rebounds averages this season.  And that’s probably enough to generate interest amongst a number of teams.

The Kings curiously declined Giles’ fourth-year option, making him an unrestricted free agent as of the end of this season. That’s an interesting decision because the option was relatively cheap given that he was only the No. 20 overall pick (2017). Further confusing matters is the idea that by passing on the fourth-year option, they also lost matching rights – so Giles won’t even be restricted.

To make matters worse, the Kings can’t even bid more than $3.9 million to retain his services. So the Kings ultimately wasted a first-round draft pick on Giles for a grand total of 14.5 minutes per game across 99 games – and he’ll walk before they even know what they had in him.

But this all works out nicely for Giles, who will absolutely get an opportunity elsewhere – and he’ll be paid more than he would have received in Sacramento for it. How good is still an unknown, but he’s shown enough for a team to take a flyer on considering his size, skill set and versatility. He was the No. 1 overall recruit coming out of high school according to ESPN just four short years ago.

Free agency is going to be different than ever before and, up until very recently, that was assumed to be a bad thing. But with some of the above players changing the narratives around them, it could become even more exciting than it’s been in the recent past. Add in the likes of DeMarcus Cousins, Davis Bertans, Christian Wood – and we’re looking at an under-appreciated free-agent class.

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NBA Daily: Breaking Down The Bubble’s Race For 8th

Ben Nadeau analyzes the race for the No. 8 and 9 spots in the Western Conference – who will make the cut?

Ben Nadeau

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As the NBA inched toward its inevitable rebirth, the instant drama surrounding the Western Conference’s No. 8 seed became a conversation wildfire.

Was the league rolling out the red carpet in hopes of a Zion Williamson-LeBron James showdown in the first round? Could the healthier Portland Trail Blazers make another historic run toward history? De’Aaron Fox, the Sacramento franchise cornerstone, took umbrage over a lack of Kings-related faith, while the Memphis Grizzlies had more than enough ground to protect their standing in the current hierarchy.

Three or so games in to our bubbled adventure, everything has changed – and fast.

The Pelicans, still worrisome over Williamson’s health and conditioning, played him about 15 minutes in each of their first two contests – coincidently, New Orleans went 0-2. With their backs against the wall and slowly losing traction in a muddied race, the Pelicans played the future superstar for 25 minutes, where he racked up 23 points, seven rebounds and used a personal 6-0 run to clinch a much-needed win. Not only did the victory signify an important swing in momentum for the veteran-laden squad, but it was another crushing defeat for Grizzlies, who fell to 0-3 and further loosened their once-gridlocked hold on the final playoff seed.

Long perceived to be a five-team fight for the right to face Memphis in the play-in game(s), the Grizzlies’ early struggles have now nearly opened both spots up. All the more interesting, the San Antonio Spurs have begun 2-1, alongside the Phoenix Suns’ 2-0 effort. Although invited without much media afterthought, both the Spurs and Suns – who boast two of the most reliable constants of the bunch, Gregg Popovich and Devin Booker, respectively – are within the four-game window needed to force a play-in too.

So then: Thanks to the Grizzlies’ scuffles, who’ll be the two franchises to reach that play-in showdown?

Let’s start with the Pelicans, a team that’ll be better the more Williamson is allowed on the floor, obviously. While that variable remains up in the air, New Orleans’ remaining schedule is not. They’ll finish with the Kings twice, plus winnable matchups against the Spurs, Wizards and Magic. Although that opening day loss versus Utah stings, there’s no shame in falling to the Clippers, so the opportunity is certainly still there for the Pelicans to reach Nos. 8 or 9 in the coming days.

The Spurs, following a hard-fought effort against Philadelphia on Monday, unfortunately, have a much harder path forward: Denver, Utah, New Orleans, Houston and Utah. No Magic, no Nets, no Kings, even. Just New Orleans and three teams currently fighting for ‘home court’ advantage in the first round. Of course, betting against Gregg Popovich is beyond stupid and that is a lesson some select few must re-learn every spring – but they still seem like the least likely of six to leapfrog into a spot.

Likewise, it isn’t much better for Phoenix. They’ll conclude with the Clippers, Indiana Pacers and T.J. Warren’s supernova act, Miami HEAT, Oklahoma City Thunder, Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks. Thankfully, Mikal Bridges’ efforts in Orlando and Ricky Rubio’s trusty playmaking have served as great foils for Deandre Ayton and the aforementioned Booker. Overall, their offensive rating just cracks the top half (15th, 110.4) and their defense remains in the lower half – but stars win games and Booker fits the bill.

Even the Kings, losers to the Spurs and Magic to open their bubble campaign, get the Pelicans twice but also a downright bad Brooklyn Nets squad and a potentially-resting Los Angeles Lakers team in four of their final five games – so don’t count them out either. With their destiny firmly in hand, expect the Kings to make a run of their own. Fox put up 39 points against San Antonio before tallying just 13 versus Orlando – and, in the latter, Sacramento’s only scorer above 15 went to Harry Giles’ 23. Given the context and a very winnable schedule, the next week or so bodes well for the Kings’ hopes.

As for Portland, the squad with the most bankable 1-2 punch of the collection, have an impossibly-tough Rockets-Nuggets-Clippers-76ers run-in before ending with the Mavericks and Nets. Worse, that stretch of difficult opposition will come fast and furious – a classic three games in four days slog. But above all, their defense leaves too much to be desired, even with the return of Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins. Before the shutdown, Portland’s defense was only better than the Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards at 113.6 in the ratings department.

In the two games back, well, it’s actually been even worse and their putrid 132.0 defensive rating is a whopping 7 points behind the Kings’ 29th-rated unit. It’s early and the sample size is certainly small – but with only six games left, they’ll need to figure it out in the against some of the league’s best. Still, Damian Lillard is a big-moment killer – he did, after all, break up the Thunder core on his own last April – and he’s capable of hot streaks that few others are.

Lillard and Nurkic put up 30 points apiece against Boston – plus 17 from CJ McCollum and 21 notched by Gary Trent Jr. – and totaled 124 as a team… yet it still wasn’t enough. The heroics of Portland’s stars will be relentless, but if they can’t stop the opposition – they’ll come up short.

In the end, even guessing at Nos. 8 and 9 is a fool’s errand. The Bubble has provided shock after shock already – and the added hurdle of rested players for locked-in seeds are soon to come – but six teams will be whittled down to two before long. Despite the slow start, Memphis remains in the driver’s seat – if they can pick up a win on Wednesday versus a seriously-slumping Jazz side, it’ll go a long way toward clinching their place.

And they’d better hope so: If they don’t, they’ll need to hope for some load management with the Thunder, Raptors, Celtics and Bucks to end the mini-campaign. It’s one of the tougher schedules left in the Western Conference, but their cushion, no matter how rapidly it is shrinking, is still reason to believe they’ll limp into the do-or-die scenario.

As for the second spot, it still feels like the Pelicans’ to lose. Between Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball, JJ Redick, Brandon Ingram and, duh, Williamson, there’s too much firepower here to completely struggle through an easier-than-most schedule.

But, sure, bet against Gregg Popovich, Damian Lillard, De’Aaron Fox and Devin Booker at your own risk – conventional wisdom suggests that at least one of them will crash the party, no matter how unlikely it seems today.

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