Full 2014-15 NBA Cap Space Projections

The 2013-14 NBA Regular Season has finally come to a come to a close.

Sixteen teams will compete for a title while 14 look forward to the May 20 NBA Draft lottery — well at least the franchises that didn’t trade away their first-round pick.

Looking ahead to the 2014 offseason, a number of teams project to have cap room.

The league’s early projections for next year’s salary cap is $63.2 million, up from this year’s $58.7 million.  The luxury tax threshold is also expected to climb to approximately $77.0 million from $71.7 million.

Player and team options, non-guaranteed contracts and the draft lottery could shift the numbers dramatically, but the 30 NBA franchises fall into just a few tiers:

Teams Likely under the Cap

Utah Jazz: Up to $29.6 million — subtract $8.6 million for Gordon Hayward’s cap hold

Philadelphia 76ers: Up to $29.0 million, but the Sixers aren’t expected to be big spenders on the free agent market.

Phoenix Suns: Up to $28.4 million, less $6.6 million for Eric Bledsoe’s cap hold.  Making P.J. Tucker a restricted free agent would drop that number by $2.9 million.

Los Angeles Lakers: Up to $28.2 million or closer to $22.3 million if they don’t stretch out Steve Nash.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Up to $23.4 million, but that would include cutting loose Anderson Varejao’s partially guaranteed deal and letting Luol Deng and Spencer Hawes leave in free agency.

Orlando Magic: Up to $22.2 million, assuming the team cuts Jameer Nelson, whose $8 million is only guaranteed for $2 million.

Detroit Pistons: Up to $22.0 million — $8.0 million less for Greg Monroe’s cap hold.

Charlotte Bobcats: Up to $19.5 million — a chance to improve a team that already made significant strides this past season.

Atlanta Hawks: Up to $13.9 million, but more likely to be in the $12.0 million range, while keeping non-guaranteed players Pero Antic and Mike Muscala.

Milwaukee Bucks: Up to $13.0 million.

Teams Either/Or/Unlikely

Miami HEAT: Up to $55.1 million, if a long list of players opt out including LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Udonis Haslem, etc.  It would appear far more likely that the HEAT do not go under the cap.

Dallas Mavericks: Up to $32.4 million.  The Mavericks can be one of the summer’s biggest spender but how much of that goes to free agent Dirk Nowitzki?  Do they look to retain Shawn Marion, Samuel Dalembert and Vince Carter?

New York Knicks: Up to $29.7 million, but quite unrealistic that players like Andrea Bargnani and Amar’e Stoudemire will opt out.  Regardless, a re-signed Carmelo Anthony would eat up most of the theoretical space.

San Antonio Spurs: Up to $26.9 million if Tim Duncan opts out and/or the team cuts Tony Parker.  It’s unlikely San Antonio is a cap team, although they could get to about 8.2 million while keeping Duncan and Parker.

Toronto Raptors: Up to $20.1 million if they part ways with key players that helped the franchise return to the playoffs (Kyle Lowry, Amir Johnson, Tyler Hansbrough, Patrick Patterson, Greivis Vasquez and John Salmons).

Washington Wizards: Up to $16.6 million but at cost of Marcin Gortat and Trevor Ariza.

Sacramento Kings: Up to $12.7 million, but only if Rudy Gay opts out of his final year at $19.3 million.  The Kings also have a $2.9 million cap hold for Isaiah Thomas, assuming they make him restricted.

Memphis Grizzlies: Up to $12.0 million, if Zach Randolph opts out of his final year at $17.0 million.

Chicago Bulls: Up to $11.3 million if the team uses their one-time amnesty on Carlos Boozer.

Boston Celtics: Up to $9.3 million if the Celtics don’t give Avery Bradley a qualify offer.

Teams Over

Barring trade, the following teams should be over the cap this summer:

Brooklyn Nets
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets
Indiana Pacers
Los Angeles Clippers
Minnesota Timberwolves
New Orleans Pelicans (They can try to $6.6 million under the cap, but that’s not much more than the $5.3 million Mid-Level Exception, which they’d need to renounce to get under.)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Portland Trail Blazers

Make sure to checkout Basketball Insiders’ complete salary cap database!