At the start of every NBA season, outside of the mainstream headlines there are always other storylines and subplots simmering below the surface. The 2016-17 campaign will be no different and throughout the season, there will be plenty of stories of individuals experiencing bounce-back campaigns, guys overcoming hurdles in search of redemption and players or teams inevitably facing a decline after years of success and productivity.
In today’s space, we’re going to evaluate some players and teams that potentially fit these narratives. Let’s get to it and, as always, leave your comments below if you have any other suggestions.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Forward, Charlotte Hornets
Kidd-Gilchrist suffered through a tough season physically in 2016. The promising forward entered the season hurt, came back for a relatively short period of time and played well, but ultimately ended up re-injuring himself and sitting out the rest of the 2016 campaign. All in all, Kidd-Gilchrist played just seven games. But heading into this season, Kidd-Gilchrist is on tap for a huge bounce-back campaign. The phrase “out of sight, out of mind” comes to the forefront when referencing Kidd-Gilchrist at this point. The 22-year-old has the potential to be an All-Defensive team type of performer during his prime years.
The Hornets lost a lot of pieces this offseason with guard Jeremy Lin heading to Brooklyn, center Al Jefferson now Indiana and guard Courtney Lee headed to the Big Apple. Kidd-Gilchrist will reenter the fold with plenty of opportunities to contribute.
Bradley Beal, Guard, Washington Wizards
Beal is a player with All-Star potential. This is undeniable, as the talent is clearly evident. But what has been missing is Beal’s ability to stay healthy since entering the league. In four campaigns, Beal has logged more than 70 appearances just once. But armed with a new and very lucrative contract, Beal has the potential to shake off those injury concerns for good. In Washington, beside All-Star guard John Wall, Beal will have every opportunity for a bounce-back campaign. Beal averaged a career-high 17.4 points per contest in 2016 so it might be a tough sell to market him as a bounce-back candidate, but the guard played in just 55 games and the Wizards missed the playoffs. There is plenty of motivation here to reference.
The Milwaukee Bucks
The 2015 Milwaukee Bucks were one of the league’s biggest surprises, making the playoffs and putting up a huge fight against the Chicago Bulls before ultimately being eliminated in the first round. The Bucks followed up that performance during the summer by seemingly striking gold, luring big man Greg Monroe into town via free agency. Monroe seemingly solidified the Bucks’ interior attack, but the 2016 campaign was one to forget for the franchise as the team never fully got on track and subsequently missed the playoffs.
Headed into the 2017 season, the Bucks have the necessary pieces to get back into the mix and make some noise and show last year was just a blip on the radar and not indicative of things to come. For this reason, the Bucks are headed down the road of redemption after a troubling 2016 campaign.
Pau Gasol, Center, San Antonio Spurs
Listen, Gasol has had a surefire Hall-of-Fame-level career. But how long can a player continue fighting off the inevitability of Father Time? Headed to San Antonio, Gasol will be put into a program that doesn’t overwork its players and for this reason alone, Gasol may have extended his career a season or two. But heading to the Spurs also means Gasol will see his statistical numbers continue to decline. In fact, don’t be surprised that if in the established system of the Spurs, Gasol ends up averaging some of the most pedestrian numbers of his career.
Dion Waiters, Guard, Miami Heat
Waiters is a player with an extremely high self-belief in his talent. If self-belief were a tangible skill on the court, Waiters would contend for First Team All-NBA honors in confidence. There were probably more lucrative destinations and opportunities for Waiters in free agency this summer, but the Miami Heat, still reeling after the departure of Dwyane Wade, could be a strong fit.
Miami is a team that leads with its defensive tenacity and, at times, the Heat’s offense can become rather stagnant. Usher in a guy like Waiters who is known for having the ability to fill up the offensive stat sheet and Miami may have found themselves a steal in free agency this summer.
Waiters has bounced around the league after entering it as a lottery pick full of big dreams and high expectations. Miami will offer Waiters every opportunity to become an offensive dynamo, the question is, as it’s always been, can Waiters finally take advantage of the opportunity?
The Houston Rockets
The 2016 campaign got off on the wrong foot for the Rockets and the carousel of underachieving never subsided. Last season, the Rockets were marred by coaching changes and internal locker room turmoil, but Houston is in a position to quickly change the narrative of their franchise in 2017.
The team was active in free agency this summer by signing productive veterans such as Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson. Houston also inked star guard James Harden to a long-term extension, guaranteeing stability at the top of the lineup. The Rockets also hired a head coach in Mike D’Antoni whom they believe helps them get to the next level.
On paper, the Rockets are primed for a bounce-back campaign. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves and think title contention, but for a team that went through all of its drama and still made the playoffs last season, a jump into the top five or flirting with the top five in the West is not a far-fetched possibility.
Joakim Noah, Center, New York Knicks
Noah’s last season in Chicago is one to forget. The former All-Star was relegated to a bench role under new head coach Fred Hoiberg and then got injured and had to sit out the majority of the campaign.
It became clear as the season progressed that Noah and the Bulls were going to be a thing of the past once free agency began in July. In New York, Noah has a big-time opportunity for redemption and to silence critics who believe he will never return to an All-Star level. Noah will have the minutes, a starting role and plenty of high expectations to perform. In short, Noah gets another shot to prove he can handle the rigors of the 82-game season, as a starter, and regain his form. The 2016-17 season is shaping up to be one of redemption for Noah, on paper, if his body allows him to deliver.
Kyle Korver, Guard, Atlanta Hawks
Korver is the rare player who spent the majority of his career as a role player and was able to develop into an All-Star level performer later on. But now in his mid-30s and coming off a sub par campaign, for his recent standards, there’s a strong possibility that Korver never gets back to the level he was at during the 2015 campaign.
Korver is still one of the most feared shooters in the league, but 2016 was a sometimes painful wake-up call that Father Time has seemingly pulled his card. In Atlanta, Korver will enter training camp as the favorite to lock up the starting shooting guard spot, but any Hawks fan expecting a return to 2015 levels of production from Korver should temper their expectations.
The Oklahoma City Thunder
Not to throw any more salt in the wounds of the Thunder fan base, but losing former league MVP Kevin Durant for nothing in return in free agency is a tough adjustment to handle. Realistically, the Thunder franchise is headed for a decline without Durant. The only reason Durant’s departure wasn’t an even more devastating blow is that All-Star guard Russell Westbrook is still on the roster and is arguably one of the top five players in the game today.
So Oklahoma City has enough firepower to remain relevant and possibly even flirt with a playoff berth. But there are just so many questions in Oklahoma City right now, such as whether Westbrook is in it for the long haul as he approaches unrestricted free agency next summer. The team could decide to trade him and receive some assets in return, but even doing that would mean a further spiral down the Western Conference pecking order. Even if Westbrook decides to stay, the Thunder are now a far cry from a team that was just one win away from returning to their second NBA finals appearance in the past five seasons.
Which other players and teams are you expecting to bounce-back, redeem themselves or decline next season? Leave a comment below.
Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards
Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.
We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.
The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.
With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.
The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.
Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old
Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.
He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.
Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.
Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old
Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.
He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.
Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.
Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old
Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.
He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.
One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old
Looking Toward the Draft: Small Forwards
Basketball Insiders’ examination of the 2020 draft class continues with a look at the small forwards.
It was announced on Wednesday that the NBA Draft would be delayed from Oct. 16 to Nov. 18. The rationale is that the extra month gives the league and its players association more time to negotiate changes to the CBA. It also grants teams additional time to procure information on prospects and allows the NBA to establish regional virtual combines. But nothing is set in stone.
Still, draft prep must continue. This year’s draft class has more question marks than usual – which was complicated by the cancellation of the NCAA tournament (along with the NIT and a number of conference tournaments). There are incredibly skilled offensive players with limited offensive upside and jaw-droppingly talented defenders with incomplete offensive packages. But if (recent) history serves as a guide, there will be a few guys who make an immediate impact – and some of them very well could be small forwards.
The small forward position is key for the modern NBA. Want proof? Survey the league and you’ll find that most – if not all – contenders have an elite small forward – Milwaukee, Los Angeles (both), Boston, Miami, Toronto.
But the list of can’t miss small forward prospects feels smaller than usual. Scanning the numerous legitimate mock drafts (including our own by Steve Kyler), it becomes apparent that we lack a consensus on which small forwards will be selected (and in what order) after the top 3 or 4. Can any of them grow into a star? Maybe. Maybe not. But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s identify what the top few bring to the table.
Deni Avdija, Israel – 19 years old
Avdija is a relatively well-rounded prospect who’s played professionally since he was 16. He boasts good height (6-foot-9) and uses it effectively to shoot over and pass around opposing defenses. Further, Avdija is an exceptional playmaker and he’s incredibly confident, enabling him to take chances many players would be apprehensive trying. Avdija is a high-IQ player. And what’s more, he’s a surprisingly strong defender. His height and above-average athleticism allow him to block shots, and he’s more physical than you’d expect him to be.
But there are drawbacks to Avdija, too. His main issue is around shooting. Avdija shot only 28% in the EuroLeague last season, and he shot only 60% from the free-throw line. Further, while he’s a decent athlete, he’ll struggle to secure a role in the NBA. He’s going to need to add speed to stay with modern wings, and he’ll also have to bulk up to bang with power forwards.
Still, Avdija’s upside is alluring. He’s only 19, and his smarts, confidence and grittiness should provide him cover for much of his rookie season. Avdija should be the first small forward off of the board.
Isaac Okoro, Auburn – 19 years old
Avdija might be the flashier name currently, but Okoro will give him a run for his money in terms of which small forward is first off the board. Okoro is built like a traditional NBA wing; he’s 6-foot-6 with good strength packed in his muscular frame (215 lbs). Okoro finishes well around the rim and he converts well through contact. He’s an exceptional athlete who excels catching the ball on the move. Like Avdija, Okoro has the poise and composure of a more experienced player. Also, like Avdija, Okoro looked the part of a high IQ player in his lone season at Auburn.
And while all that is great, the main allure of Okoro is his defense. He’s a fairly advanced defender given his age, and his athleticism and timing make him an effective weak side help defender.
While Okoro’s raw abilities are exquisite, his refined offensive skills leave something to be desired. Okoro shot 28 percent on three-point field goals and he struggled from the free-throw line (67.2 percent). His mid-range jump shot also needs work, and he struggles in isolation situations.
If Okoro can hone his offensive game, he could grow into an All-Star. He has the ability to guard multiple positions, and his strength and athleticism give him a leg up on most prospects. But even if he doesn’t become an All-Star, he possesses a fairly high floor given his defensive abilities — and the guy definitely fills the state sheet (12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, .9 steals and .9 blocks). He has lockdown defender potential and he’ll put his stamp on the game beginning on night one.
Devin Vassell, Florida State – 20 years old
Vassell played two seasons at Florida State, but he came into his own in his Sophomore season. He averaged 12.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. He shot a more than respectable 41.5% on three-point attempts, and he demonstrated a strong stroke from the free-throw line (73.8 percent) and on two-point field goal attempts (53.2).
Vassell is an extremely athletic leaper, who can rise up for a highlight dunk and sprint down the floor with ease. He has good body control and demonstrated a strong mid-range game, especially his step-back jump shot. But Vassell must generate more free throws through decisive moves to the hoop, which would be bolstered by a more muscular frame. Additionally, he must improve his ball-handling to get more from isolations.
Vassell will have an adjustment period in terms of scoring the ball at the next level. Fortunately, his defense and shooting should get him by. If he can bulk up and improve his handling, Vassell could grow into a serious player.
Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt – 20 years old
Nesmith probably has a lower floor than any of the other top small forward prospects given that he’ll be 21 by the draft. Still, he looked quite good in his Junior year, averaging 23 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game on a scorching 52.2 percent shooting from deep. Nesmith is an incredibly gifted shooter who has impressive range. His ability to catch-and-shoot and create space with fakes makes him a promising prospect – for the right team.
Nesmith is a high IQ player who uses his smarts on the defensive end. He’s also quite strong, can get buckets in the open floor and demonstrates above average ball-handling skills, as long as he’s not taking the ball to the hoop.
But there are inherent limitations in Nesmith’s game. He’s doesn’t create for his teammates too effectively and he turns the ball over more frequently than one would like with. Further, Nesmith is plagued by robotic movements that limit his athleticism. His ball-handling breaks down when taking the ball to the rack – something he’ll certainly have to work on in the NBA if he wants to be a versatile scoring threat against the bigger and stronger competition.
Still, Nesmith’s positives give him an excellent chance at being selected in the first round. His range alone will intrigue teams in need of a shooter.
Saddiq Bey, Villanova – 21 years old
Jaden McDaniels, Washington – 19 years old
Robert Woodard II, Mississippi State – 20 years old
With the uncertainty around small forward prospects, expect to see a revolving door of names enter the discussion after the first four wing prospects are off the board prior to Nov. 16 – assuming the draft is held then. But regardless of how you have them ranked, all of the aforementioned prospects have question marks. But all have had far more time to improve than they would have in years’ past. Let’s hope that shows come next season.
NBA Daily: Opposite Plotlines for Today’s Matchups
With the two matchups going on today, Matt John examines the two teams who could be in the most trouble because of one of their individual stars for opposite reasons.
The second round of the NBA playoffs was hyped up to be one of the most entertaining we’ve had in years. So far, they haven’t fallen short of expectations. We knew that Houston and Los Angeles’ battle of opposite philosophies would make for some twists and turns. We knew that Boston and Toronto would duke it out in an Atlantic Division showdown. We knew that Miami would push Milwaukee to new heights. We didn’t really know if the Nuggets would give the Clippers a good series, but the fact that they have so far has made an intense postseason all the more gripping.
Anyway, today we’re getting two games from two series in completely opposite places. The Lakers and the Rockets will face off for the series lead, while the HEAT will try to finish off the Bucks once and for all. Below, we’re going to focus on two teams who have an individual star that either may be more flawed than we thought or one that may not be as flawed as we thought.
Bucks vs. HEAT: Giannis is great and all, but…
We all pretty much knew this was going to be a good series. We did not expect this.
The buzz surrounding Bucks v. HEAT was that Miami was going to make Milwaukee earn every win they got in this series. If that was the plan, then Miami has failed miserably, because until Khris Middleton went supernova on them on Sunday, Milwaukee had come up terribly short.
Let’s first give Miami the credit that they are due and more. With Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler alone, Miami was going to be a tough matchup for Milwaukee – but to see the Bucks all but roll over in this series is an unpleasant sight. Acquiring Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala has paid huge dividends and it’s showing. There are other factors involved, but Miami’s defensive efforts have limited Giannis to 21.8 points a game and that’s played a role in the HEAT being in the driver’s seat of this series.
Speaking of Giannis Antetokounmpo, this series has not been a good look for the Defensive Player of the Year. Especially since it looks like his second consecutive MVP (presumably) is right around the corner. So, to see both him and Milwaukee, once an unstoppable force without an immovable object in sight, get stopped by a sturdy but not immovable squad is saddening.
Nearly a year ago, Basketball Insiders compared these current Bucks to the Dwight Howard-led Orlando Magic from the late-2000’s/early 2010’s. To oversimplify things, both were contenders led by a superstar with a rare physique that made them tough to stop. To put the superstar in the best position, they surrounded them with playmakers and three-point shooters.
While the teams’ roster constructions weren’t exactly the same, their strengths as a team certainly were. Now we’re seeing the Bucks’ flaws just as we did the Magic 10 years ago. If you have the personnel to make the lone superstar uncomfortable, the team doesn’t function as well.
Giannis is near impossible to stop, but the one major flaw is that if you take away his ability to drive and force him into a jumper, he loses his rhythm. Even if his shot is on – never a guarantee – his opponents will let him beat them that way until he makes them pay. Hardly any team can pick on this, but the HEAT are one of them, and now they’re one win away from their first Eastern Conference Finals since LeBron James took his talents out of South Beach.
This ultimately is what puts Antetokounmpo below the likes of LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard for now. Those guys are rare physical specimens like him, but their elite games don’t revolve entirely around their natural gifts as he does or Dwight did. At 25 years old, there’s plenty of time for him to change that and, for all we know, he will, but to see him struggle at a time when the conference was supposed to run through him has ignited tons of questions.
Milwaukee’s technically not out yet, but they’ve shown their mortality against Miami. If this really is it for them, then they’ve got to find a quick fix for this problem because if they don’t, then the unspeakable may happen.
Lakers vs. Rockets: Westbrook has been bad and all but…
Shaking off the rust and recovering from a balky knee would be tough for anyone. For Russell Westbrook, it’s killing his productivity and, in turn, the Rockets’ playoff chances. He’s averaging 15.6 points on 39/16/47 splits with a most recent 10-point, 4-of-15 effort from the field which included seven turnovers and air balling wide-open threes sticking out like a sore thumb.
It also doesn’t help that he’s playing the Lakers of all teams. When Westbrook has been in, the Lakers have taken advantage of his shortcomings offensively and it shows both on the court and the stat line.
Most of Westbrook’s damage is hurting Houston on the offensive end. With the All-Star guard in the game, Houston is minus-13.7 with him on the court, the worst offensive rating on the team. The 12 turnovers he’s coughed up in this series probably have something to do with that.
With Westbrook’s struggles and his predecessor Chris Paul coming off of his best individual season since 2016, this, of course, has led to many second-guessing the swap last summer. Or let’s rephrase that: People have been second-guessing that trade since the moment it was announced and, in light of recent events, they’re piling on now more than ever.
Maybe they’re right. Even after playing in the NBA for over a decade now, Westbrook still hasn’t proven that he can control himself enough to reach his potential as a team player. We’ve seen glimpses. On the other hand, Paul showed that he can still pick apart defenses while holding his own on that end.
But replacing Paul with Westbrook was Harden’s idea. He didn’t want to play with Paul anymore and chose to play with one of his closest friends. You may think that the better fit is what’s best for the team, but we’ve seen the damage that can happen when your team’s best players have friction with one another. It hurt Utah this season. It hurt Boston last season. It destroyed the Lakers back in 2013. There’s no telling what it could have done to Houston this season.
Besides, we know that as bad as Westbrook has been, he’s capable of being better. Not a knockdown shooter, not even an efficient scorer, but he has done better in the past when the focus was on him. The more days he takes to shake off the rust from his knee, the more optimistic the Rockets ought to be.
The Rockets have to take the glass-half-full on this one because they don’t really have a choice otherwise.