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NBA Daily: Grading The Offseason – Indiana Pacers

The “Grading The Offseason” series at Basketball Insiders moves along as Spencer Davies details the summer of a restructured and improved Indiana Pacers team.

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Happy NBA Schedule Release Week, everyone! With the 82-game set released on Monday afternoon, we now know what marquee matchups are on the docket for the 2019-20 campaign.

While FIBA World Cup is officially underway and training camp is right around the corner, Basketball Insiders has kicked off another week of its Grading The Offseason series. We’ll move right along next with the Indiana Pacers.

Overview

After taking the Cleveland Cavaliers to the brink of elimination in the first round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs, it was evident that the Indiana Pacers were destined for greatness. Victor Oladipo took a leap into superstardom, guided a team that was predicted to flounder following the departure of Paul George and put them on the map at a national scale.

This past season, that momentum continued with the maturation of the group as a whole. Indiana’s offense was fluid and the defense was physical. While there were ups and downs to start the first couple of months, a torrid December left them at 25-12 entering the New Year.

The staggered one-two punch of Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis provided different looks between units with improved play on both ends. Bojan Bogdanovic played a pivotal role as a supplemental scorer. And, of course, Thaddeus Young did his damage on the block and assumed responsibility for guarding the opposition’s best night-in and night-out.

The Pacers rode that wave into late January and then the unthinkable happened. On a fastbreak opportunity against the Toronto Raptors, Oladipo abruptly fell to the ground and clutched at his knee as the team was gaining momentum. A hush fell over Bankers Life Fieldhouse as the All-Star guard was taken off the floor on a stretcher.

Everyone’s fears were confirmed the next day: Oladipo had ruptured the quadriceps tendon in his right knee. He would go on to have season-ending surgery soon thereafter, and head coach Nate McMillan was faced with yet another tall task to rally the locker room going forward.

Once again, there weren’t many believers. How could a group like Indiana, who fed off Oladipo’s energy and enthusiasm, possibly be taken seriously?

We had that question answered with emphasis—heart and resiliency. The very same attitude that had taken the Pacers to the playoffs the year before didn’t go away. The selfless, collective team effort McMillan helped establish proved to be more than enough to galvanize a mentally tough and battle-tested bunch.

Bogdanovic went on a scoring rampage as the Pacers’ number one option. Between February and March, the Bosnian swingman averaged over 22 points, four rebounds and two assists. Darren Collison stepped up as a floor general and consistent presence on the offensive end of the floor. Turner and Sabonis never waned outside of a few minor injuries.

In order to add another weapon, team president Kevin Pritchard went out and signed Wesley Matthews following a buyout with the New York Knicks. Unfortunately still, Indiana closed the season by losing 12 of its last 19 games heading into the playoffs—and the slide to end the campaign carried over.

Despite a closely contested four games with the Boston Celtics, the Pacers were swept out of the first round. Still, the results were not at all indicative of what they had accomplished and overcome that year. However, the scoreboard read 4-0 and the 2018-19 version of that scrappy squad had to look toward the summer.

Offseason

Aside from anticipating the progress of Oladipo’s rehab, the Pacers had plenty of decisions to make with ample cap space. There were impending free agency decisions of eight different players on their roster, including three key members of the core that pushed them past adversity. There was a focus on the NBA Draft as well that preceded the moratorium period.

Right off the bat, Pritchard traded for Phoenix Suns forward T.J. Warren and the No. 32 pick, which was sent to the Miami HEAT later that night for three future selections in the second round.

With the 18th pick in the draft, Indiana selected Georgian big man Goga Bitadze, a highly-regarded international prospect whom Pritchard admitted he had top 10 on the team’s draft board. The organization took Jarrell Brantley with Miami’s No. 50 pick and flipped the rookie forward to the Utah Jazz for a 2021 second-rounder and cash considerations.

On June 28, Collison surprisingly announced his retirement. Free agency approached quickly thereafter and the action followed suit. Bogdanovic swiftly agreed to a long-term contract with the Jazz. Young came to terms on a three-year deal with the Chicago Bulls. Just like that, that all-so-important veteran trio was gone.

In return, Pritchard wasted no time in response. The Pacers agreed to a sign-and-trade with the Milwaukee Bucks to acquire Malcolm Brogdon, sending future draft picks in exchange for the talented guard. Immediately after that news dropped, Jeremy Lamb and the team struck a deal to bring the former Hornets wing to Indianapolis.

At July’s end, Indiana signed point guard T.J. McConnell and inked a contract with Justin Holiday to reunite him with his brother Aaron. The organization converted Edmond Sumner’s two-way contract into a standard one as well.

Brian Bowen II and Naz Mitrou-Long agreed to separate deals as the new two-way players in the building. Exhibit 10 contracts were also extended to JaKennan Gant and 28-year-old comeback hopeful C.J. Wilcox.

Their most recent move was bringing in veteran journeyman JaKarr Sampson for one year at the veteran minimum after backing out of his deal with a team in China.

So, as you can see, the Pacers have restructured over half of their roster.

PLAYERS IN: T.J. Warren, Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb, T.J. McConnell, Justin Holiday, JaKarr Sampson, Goga Bitadze, Edmond Sumner (converted), Brian Bowen II (two-way), Naz Mitrou-Long (two-way), C.J. Wilcox (Exhibit 10), JaKeenan Gant (Exhibit 10)

PLAYERS OUT: Bojan Bogdanovic, Cory Joseph, Darren Collison, Thaddeus Young, Tyreke Evans, Wesley Matthews, Kyle O’Quinn, Davon Reed

What’s Next

Despite lacking the immediate chemistry we’ve seen over the last couple of seasons, Indiana improved significantly.

Once Oladipo returns—which Pritchard surmises will be around December or January—they should be a top-four team in the Eastern Conference on paper. The only thing that could be a hindrance is finding cohesion and the right rotations to ensure those goals are reached.

Envision the matchup issues the Pacers are going to run out there when they’re back to full health. A five-man unit consisting of Brogdon, Oladipo, Warren, Sabonis and Turner would give opponents fits on the defensive end. They won’t be as imposing as past iterations of the team, but they will have plenty of length to gets stops and create turnovers.

Depth is a huge player in all of this as well. That bench is going to be a force to be reckoned with. We, naturally, have to see how the rotations play out for McMillan and company, first and foremost. But Aaron Holiday, Jeremy Lamb and Justin Holiday would be a fine trio to pack a powerful punch while the starters catch their breath.

If you’re unaware of the most popular topic with Indiana, it’s the debate of who has a future in Indiana between the rising big men—Turner or Sabonis? The former has been on the fast track to improving his body and established himself as a top defender in the NBA with a consistent jump shot. The latter is coming off his best season as a pro where he essentially put up a double-double nightly off the bench as a presence on the block and the boards.

We’re going to find out whether or not pairing those two will work, as McMillan told reporters last month that both will be featured in the 2019-20 starting lineup. The coach said that Sabonis’ play has forced his hand to find more minutes for the up-and-coming Lithuanian.

It should be of note that Sabonis is eligible for a rookie extension going into his fourth year as a professional. According to ESPN’s Bobby Marks, the deadline for the Pacers to offer him one is Oct. 21 at 6 p.m.

Turner is already secured for the long term following the signing of his extension before the beginning of last season. Will Sabonis receive the same offer? And if he does, would he accept it?

These are the storylines that are going to garner the most attention as Indiana looks to make some noise in the NBA world with its fresh-faced group.

Other than that, the table is set with plenty of talent and many team-friendly contracts for multiple years. Expect this version of the Pacers to be faster and more versatile than they’ve been in quite some time.

OFFSEASON GRADE: A-

Spencer Davies is a Deputy Editor and a Senior NBA Writer based in Cleveland in his third year with Basketball Insiders. Covering the league and the Cavaliers for the past five seasons, his bylines have appeared on Bleacher Report, FOX Sports and HoopsHype.

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NBA Daily: The Stretch Run — Southeast Division

With the All-Star Break behind us, the final stretch of NBA games has commenced. Quinn Davis takes a look at a few teams in the Southeast Division that have a chance at making the dance.

Quinn Davis

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Well, that was fast.

With the NBA All-Star break in the rearview, there are now fewer than 30 games to play for all 30 NBA teams. In other words, time is running out for certain teams to improve their seeding in the conference.

Here at Basketball Insiders, we will be looking at a certain subset of teams that are right on the border of making or missing the playoffs. In this edition, the focus will be on the Southeast Division.

The Southeast features three teams — the Charlotte Hornets, Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards — operating in the lower-middle-class of the NBA. These three will be slugging it out over the next month-and-a-half for the right to meet the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round of the playoffs.

The two remaining teams are the Miami HEAT and Atlanta Hawks. As this is being written, the former is comfortably in the playoffs at 35-20, while the latter is comfortably gathering more ping pong balls at 16-41.

In this space, the focus will be on the three bubble teams. The Magic are currently frontrunners for the eighth seed, but the Wizards and Hornets are within striking distance if things were to go awry.

Led by head coach Steve Clifford, the Magic have ground their way to the eighth seed behind an eighth-ranked defense. Lanky wing Aaron Gordon is the standout, helping the Magic execute their scheme of walling off the paint. The Magic only allow 31.3 percent of opponent shots to come at the rim, putting them in 89th percentile in the league, per Cleaning The Glass.

Following a post-break loss to Dallas Mavericks, the Magic sit at 24-32 and three games up on the ninth-seeded Wizards. While a three-game margin doesn’t sound like much, that is a sizable cushion with only 26 games to play. Basketball-Reference gives the Magic a 97.4 percent chance to make the playoffs.

The Magic have the third-easiest remaining schedule out of Eastern Conference teams. They have very winnable games coming against the Bulls, Hornets, Cavaliers, Knicks and Pistons. They also have multiple games coming against the Brooklyn Nets, the team they trail by only 1.5 games for the seventh seed.

The Magic are prone, however, to dropping games against the league’s bottom-feeders. It can be difficult to string together wins with an offense this sluggish. The Markelle Fultz experiment has added some spark in that department, but his lack of an outside shot still leaves the floor cramped.

After a quick analysis of the schedule, the most likely scenario appears to be a 12-14 record over the last 26 games, putting the Magic at 36-46 come season’s end. A record like that should not be allowed anywhere near playoff basketball, but it would probably be enough to meet the Bucks in round one.

If the Magic go 12-14, that would leave the Wizards, fresh off a loss to J.B. Bickerstaff and the Cleveland Cavaliers, needing to go 17-11 over their last 28 games. They will need to finish one game ahead as the Magic hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Wizards finishing that strong becomes even more farfetched when you consider their remaining schedule. They have the second-toughest slate from here on out, per Basketball-Reference.

The Wizards do have a trump card in Bradley Beal, who is the best player among the bubble teams in the East. He has now scored 25 points or more in 13 straight games and has been the driving force behind the Wizards staying in the race.

He has also picked up his defense a bit following his All-Star snub in an effort to silence his critics. The increased focus on that end is nice, but it would’ve been a little nicer if it had been a part of his game earlier in this season when the Wizards were by far the worst defense in the league.

Even if Beal goes bonkers, it is hard to see a path for this Wizards team to sneak in outside of a monumental collapse in Orlando. Looking at their schedule, it would take some big upsets to even get to 10 wins over their last 28. Their most likely record to finish the season is 8-20 if all games go to the likely favorites.

The Wizards’ offense has been impressive all season, but injuries and a porous defense have been too much to overcome.

The Hornets, meanwhile, trail the Wizards by 1.5 games and the Magic by 4.5 games. They have won their last three in a row to put themselves back in this race, but they still have an uphill climb.

The Hornets also may have raised the proverbial white flag by waiving two veterans in Marvin Williams and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The goal coming into this season was never to make the playoffs, so they are likely more interested in developing young talent over these last 27 games.

If the Magic do play up to their usual levels and go 12-14, it would require the Hornets to go 18-9 to finish the season against the sixth-toughest remaining schedule in the East.

Devonte’ Graham and his three-point shooting have been a bright spot for the Hornets, but it would take some otherworldly performances from him and Terry Rozier down the stretch to put together a record like that. Basketball-Reference gives this a 0.02 percent chance of happening (cue the Jim Carrey GIF).

Barring a miracle, the eight playoff teams in the Eastern Conference are locked in place. The only questions remaining are how seeds 2-6 will play out, and whether the Magic can catch the Nets for the seventh spot.

The Wizards will fight to the end, but it is unlikely they make up any ground given the level of opponents they will see over the next six weeks. The Hornets, meanwhile, are more likely to fight for lottery odds.

At least the playoffs should be exciting.

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The Pressure Is On Anthony Davis

The Rockets’ and Clippers’ strong commitments to small-ball show that the Lakers’ opponents are zeroed in on stopping LeBron James. If the Lakers want their next title, Anthony Davis has to prove he can take over for a contender. Matt John writes.

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LeBron James is the greatest basketball player of his generation and arguably of all-time. No matter how old he is or how many miles he has on those tires — 48,014 minutes total as of Feb. 20, good for eighth-most all-time among NBA players =- he is not to be underestimated. The Los Angeles Lakers know they have a window on their hands, but with LeBron on the wrong side of 30, they know that this window won’t be for too long. Unfortunately, so do their opponents.

This brings us to his partner-in-crime, Anthony Davis. Throughout LeBron’s era of dominance, he’s always had a Robin to his Batman. Dwyane Wade needed time to adjust to it. Kyrie Irving was so perfect for the role that he grew tired of it. Anthony Davis has embraced it since day one.

LeBron and AD have been as good as advertised. Together, the two of them possess a net rating of plus-10.3 when they share the court. They don’t actually run the pick and roll as often as we thought they would – LeBron only runs 26 percent of his plays as a handler while Davis has been the roll man for 13 percent of his plays – but when they do, it’s efficient.

LeBron’s effective field goal percentage as a pick-and-roll handler is 47.5 percent and draws and-1’s at 3.5 percent, which is pretty high for that sort of play. He ranks in the 67th percentile as a handler. Davis’ effective field goal percentage as a roll man is 61 percent and draws and-1’s at 4.9 percent. He ranks in the 72nd percentile as a roll man.

They may not run this in LA primarily because their old school play of playing big probably eats up the spacing. Since the Lakers have the fourth-highest offensive rating in the league, scoring 113.6 points per 100 possessions, it’s not a problem at the moment. This might change in the playoffs, but we’ll get to that.

Something else to note is that Davis’ numbers have stayed relatively the same since going from New Orleans to LA. His scoring average has gone down just a tick, but that’s to be expected when you’re playing next to LeBron James. Davis’ rebounding numbers have taken a more noticeable dip, but having him play next to Dwight Howard or JaVale McGee probably has something to do with that.

He and LeBron have led the Lakers to the best record in the Western Conference. According to Tankathon, they have the 10th-easiest schedule for the rest of the season, so the odds are in their favor of finishing out on top. Of course, their elite production as a duo is about as shocking as Martin Scorsese’s movies getting nominated for Oscars.

The Lakers are expected to make their deepest run since the last time they won the title in 2010. Even if they are among the league’s biggest powerhouses, they’ll have plenty of competition along the way in the Western Conference. Without going into too much detail about who that is — because you probably already know who that is — let’s focus on the two competitors who have been making major shakeups since the trade deadline, the Houston Rockets and the Los Angeles Clippers.

Both may have executed different trades, but both had the same goal in mind when they made them.

When the Rockets traded Clint Capela — their only traditional center that was playable — for Robert Covington, a two-way wing that they believed they could mold into a small-ball five, they traded their size for switchability and versatility. Not only that, they doubled down on their strategy by bringing in the likes of DeMarre Caroll and Jeff Green, two swingmen who have played some minutes at center in their career but very, very few.

When the Clippers traded Moe Harkless — who was doing just fine for them as their third wing — they opted to go for an upgrade at the wing spot instead of another big by trading him among others and a first-round pick for what’s likely to be a short rental of Marcus Morris. They could have used Harkless to get another big to combat the Lakers’ size, but instead opted to add more grit to the wing department. The deal also opened up a few more spots on the roster, but they too opted not for more size, but for another scorer in Reggie Jackson.

Acquiring those wings demonstrates that they have coined the exact same gameplan to taking down the Lakers should they face them in the playoff — slowing down LeBron James.

Slowing down LeBron is a strategy that just about everyone has been familiar with since 2003, but very few have been successful at executing it because, well, there doesn’t really need to be an explanation when it comes to the subject of LeBron James.

By doing everything in their power to make LeBron’s life miserable, they are in effect going to dare everyone else on the Lakers to beat them, and that starts with Anthony Davis.

We know how good Anthony Davis is, but we don’t really know how good he’s going to be when the stakes are higher. Davis’ numbers in the playoffs should hardly concern the Lakers’ faithful. He’s averaged 30.5 points and 12.7 points on nearly 53 percent shooting from the field. The one number that could be concerning is that those averages come from only 13 playoff games total.

Davis is hardly to blame for the lack of playoff success in his name. Injuries ravaged the Pelicans continuously, and the best players he’s played with in the postseason are Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans and Rajon Rondo. The numbers suggest he carries his weight.

He should have less weight to carry when and if the Lakers enter the playoffs, but because their competitors are doubling down on their small ball to make sure LeBron’s covered as tightly as possible, the pressure will be on Davis to keep it going.

Posting up against small lineups shouldn’t be an issue for Davis because he’s been efficient on post-ups this season. On a frequency of 22.8 percent, Davis has a points per possession (PPP) of 0.95 when posting up. Davis is averaging five points while shooting 47.8 percent from the field in the post up throughout the entire season. His efficiency in the post up ranks him in the 63rd percentile. He’s not Joel Embiid or even LaMarcus Aldridge in that area, but he’s reliable.

Still, time will tell to see if it translates in the playoffs. In the Lakers’ most recent game against the Rockets, we got our first sample of how LA will fare against Houston’s new scheme. LeBron struggled with it, putting up just 18 points on 8-for-19 shooting while turning it over six times. The switchability and intelligence that their defenders possessed made life difficult for him.

It was a different story for Davis. He had an excellent game. 32 points on 14-of-21 shooting, 13 rebounds and 3 blocks because he dominated the very undersized center Houston threw at him. Despite that, the Rockets prevailed 121-111.

They were more than happy to let Davis dominate them as long as they took LeBron out of his comfort zone, and it worked. Games like that should make you want to keep your eye on this. Teams know that LeBron James is a nuclear weapon during the NBA playoffs. They have yet to see if Anthony Davis can be the same. If he can’t pick up the slack when LeBron is off his game, then that changes the ballgame.

Davis is an elite player. He has done a lot in his NBA career. He hasn’t had the opportunity to show that he can take over for a contender when the stakes are dialed to 11. When the playoffs arrive, we’ll finally see what he can do.

There shouldn’t be much doubt as to if Davis can do this. There should be much pressure as to if he’ll be able to do enough.

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NBA Daily: Picking Up The Pieces In Portland

The Portland Trail Blazers continue to fight for their playoff lives. Damian Lillard’s recent injury is just another obstacle that this team must hurdle to survive. Chad Smith looks at one player that may be emerging off of their bench just when they need it most.

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The home stretch has begun, and most teams around the league are pushing for a better playoff seed.

The postseason begins in less than two months and many teams are just hoping that they are able to be part of it. That is the case in Portland, where the Trail Blazers find themselves on the outside looking in as they trail the Memphis Grizzlies by 3.5 games for the final spot in the West. They also have four teams right behind them that are hungry for playoff basketball.

The story of the 2019-20 Blazers has been injuries. It began last season when they lost their starting center Jusuf Nurkic to a devastating leg injury that he has still not fully recovered from. Zach Collins was more than ready to fill in, but he suffered a shoulder injury in their third game of the season and has been out since having surgery on it. The organization made a Hail Mary trade for Hassan Whiteside, who has actually played very well for them this season.

Rodney Hood had been a staple for Portland since they acquired him, but he was lost to a season-ending injury earlier in the year. Desperation may have ultimately led them to sign Carmelo Anthony, but he has undoubtedly been a positive addition to the club. The trade Portland made with the Sacramento Kings was thought to have just been a cost-saving move, but Trevor Ariza has been an excellent fit with the first unit.

The latest setback came in their final game before the break when the face of the franchise suffered a groin injury. Damian Lillard has been having an MVP-worthy season, on the heels of what was one of the greatest playoff buzzer-beaters in league history. Fortunately, the injury was deemed mild, and he should only miss a few games. It may be cliché, but it has been the moniker for Portland all season: Next man up.

Early in the season, it appeared as though their 2018 first-round pick Anfernee Simons was going to have a breakout year. After putting up strong numbers in the first couple of months, he was seen as a highly sought after trade target. Simons has cooled off considerably since then, and it has been the play of their other second-year guard, Gary Trent Jr., that has turned some heads.

Appearing in just 15 games as a rookie last season, Trent Jr. has had more opportunities to show what he can do this year. Amid all of the injuries and movement in Portland, he has shown the ability to hit shots and defend. The sophomore swingman just turned 21 last month, but he has the maturity and understanding of a player with more experience.

A large part of that can be attributed to his father, Gary Trent, who was traded to the Blazers after being selected 11th overall in the 1995 draft. While he didn’t turn out to be an All-Star player, he did play for nine seasons and appeared in more than 500 games. His son may not end up being a star, but they both know this is an excellent opportunity for him to showcase his talents.

The former Duke product began his rise in the middle of January after putting up 30 points against the Oklahoma City Thunder, followed by another 20 points against the Dallas Mavericks. He didn’t slow down in the final handful of games before the All-Star break, either. He scored double-digits in four consecutive games against tough competition in Denver, San Antonio, Utah and Miami, where he shot 65 percent (20-for-31) from deep. Those final two games were against elite defenses, in which he put up 38 points while shooting 7-for-15 from downtown.

So far in the month of February, Trent Jr. has shot 48 percent from the floor, 45 percent from three-point range, and is averaging 12 points and 1.4 steals per game. Those are all solid numbers for a third-string guard, but now he will be relied upon more heavily in the absence of Lillard.

It will be interesting to see the adjustments that Terry Stotts makes without his superstar point guard on the floor. CJ McCollum will likely have a higher usage and handle the ball more than he has before. The Blazers struggle mightily with shot creation. While the veteran two-guard will be looked upon to provide play-making for this group, it will be up to guys like Trent Jr. to knock down open shots and make the correct reads and rotations on defense.

Stotts appears to be leaning on Trent Jr. more often — and for good reason. Both he and Simons played in all 15 games in January, with Simons averaging about one more minute per game. Trent shot 39 percent from deep compared to Simons’ 23 percent. What Stotts really likes is how Trent Jr takes care of the ball. In those 15 January games, he had just four total turnovers. He also played 36 minutes in one of those games and finished without a single turnover.

As good as Whiteside has been at protecting the rim, Portland remains one of the worst defensive teams in the league. It ranks 26th in opponent scoring and has the 27th-ranked defensive rating. Trent Jr. is much bigger than the aforementioned Simons. He is actually bigger than McCollum and Lillard. The size and length that he possesses allow him to guard multiple positions and really help create deflections.

In his role as an off-ball scorer, Trent Jr. just fits really well alongside the Blazer backcourt. Even when one of them is out, he has found a way to excel. Over his last 15 games, he is averaging 12.5 points per game on 44.2 percent shooting from three-point range. They may need Trent Jr. to steal some minutes from the McCollum and Lillard, as they both rank among the top 12 in minutes per game.

Easing all of these injured players back into the rotation is going to be tricky. There will be some bumps and some hiccups along the way, but time is simply not on their side. They have just 26 games remaining, and several teams are fighting for that same spot. The good news for Portland is that only four teams have an easier remaining schedule.

A healthy Portland team is a dangerous playoff team. Getting Lillard back is paramount, but getting Nurkic and Collins back into the rotation with Carmelo and Whiteside would be monumental for this group.

A potential first-round matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers would be tantalizing, to say the least. It will take some work for this team to get back into the playoffs, but then again, they have never backed down from a challenge.

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