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NBA Daily: Ranking The Point Guards

Matt John continues Basketball Insiders’ positional ranking series by taking a look at who are some of the top point guards in the NBA.

Matt John

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This week, Basketball Insiders is taking a look at various positions among players in the NBA and ranking who is the best of the best. Our writers have previously used very specific guidelines to rank the best players by position in the NBA.

Today, we’re taking a look at the point guards. The floor generals. The magicians.

In some ways, it’s hard to assess who’s better than who when trying to rank point guards. That’s because a lot of factors go into what makes a point guard one of the best in the league. His playmaking, his shooting, his defense, his effectiveness, etc. It also depends on what his team asks of him.

Patrick Beverley won’t be trading shots with LeBron James in Game 7 in the NBA Finals because that’s not what he’s meant to do. He’s meant to get in his opponent’s face, make every hustle play on the floor, and establish a winning culture. Anything else is an added bonus. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the most promising point guards in the league, but right now he’s not even the best point guard on his team because he’s not required to be right now.

It’s not just about how good a player can be. It’s also about how much he impacts winning. Anyone can put up flashy highlights or fill up a box score. If the team he’s playing for isn’t winning, then how good is he? Questions like these were why guys like Steve Francis fizzled early, why Kyrie Irving had skeptics in Cleveland before LeBron returned, and why D’Angelo Russell may never shake his doubters.

Trae Young is the perfect embodiment of this. Offensively, he already is one of the best all-around players in the league. Even at 21 years old, he’s already a wrecking ball, averaging a near 30/10 a night while constantly keeping opponents on their toes whenever the ball is in his hands. When he’s firing on all cylinders, he’s been impossible to stop.

So what’s the case against Young? Two things:

1. His team stinks. Atlanta is the second-worst team in the Eastern Conference at 20-47, only a half a game better than Cleveland. That’s not entirely his fault by any means, but the lack of wins behind his name currently brings his effectiveness into question.

2. His individual defense really, really stinks. Out of 503 NBA players, Young ranks dead last in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus. Not to mention, there’s a fair amount of distance between his DRPM (minus-3.12) and the next one after him (Michael Porter Jr at minus-2.9). As good as he is offensively, a lot of his contributions on that end get negated by his defensive ineptitude.

Not to fret, though. Young has plenty of time to develop his game on the other end of the court. Young’s short stature may prevent him from becoming a plus defender, but with enough time and patience, he can optimistically be good enough to not routinely be at the bottom of the barrel defensively from a statistical standpoint.

Nobody is questioning Trae Young’s talent at the moment. The only reason why (Spoilers!) he is not on this particular list is that we have yet to see if he’s a winning player. That can definitely change once he proves he can do just that. We’ll just have to wait until then to find out.

As for who will make this list, please note that what determines the top eight point guards in the league this season depends on how they fared this season. Not by reputation. In any other season, Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving and John Wall would more likely than not be mentioned on something like this, but since the three of them played a combined 25 games this year, they’ve had next to no influence on how things have turned out.

One last little tidbit before we begin- Point guards come in all shapes and sizes these days. Even though they’re much taller than the average floor general, guys like Luka Doncic and Ben Simmons are generally classified as point guards. You’d think guys like LeBron James and Nikola Jokic would be on here for that same reason since they are the focal point of their team’s offenses, but since they’re not classified as point guards, they won’t be on here. Now, let’s get to who is on here.

1. Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

Most players who follow up a rookie season as seismic as Luka Doncic usually suffer somewhat of a sophomore slump. Derrick Rose did, and that was the year before he won MVP. Jayson Tatum did, and now he’s breaking out into a full-fledged superstar. Luka never needed that bridge to cross. When the Luka era arrived in Dallas, it arrived in full swing.

He’s averaging a near triple-double already – averaging a near 29/9/9 on 46/32/75 splits. He’s the best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league — and by a pretty fair margin too. We all thought Dallas was an up-and-coming team. We just didn’t know that was coming into effect as soon as possible. The Mavericks are already a playoff team with Luka leading the way in just his second season.

There are, of course, other factors. Dallas is a well-coached team with guys who know exactly what their roles are. Kristaps Porzingis has come along quite nicely as the season’s progressed. But they wouldn’t be anywhere near where if it weren’t for the Slovenian. Luka’s elite feel of the game — which doesn’t include a reliable three-point shot yet — is why Dallas amazingly is where they are now in such a short amount of time.

He is the reason why their offense is putting up historic numbers, and why this should be seen as just the beginning. Because of that, he’s earned the title of being the best point guard in the league.

There’s only one rookie in somewhat recent memory who took one major step further after he already proved that he was the real deal following his rookie year, and that was LeBron James. Putting Luka on that high of a pedestal this early in his career would seem foolish, but he’s already done so much already that it would arguably be even more foolish to not entertain the comparison.

2. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers

Someone who has played as well as Lillard has this season does not deserve the fate that’s probably going to happen to both him and the Blazers. Injuries and replacing key players with bad fits have led to Portland looking on the outside in on the playoff race. It’s a shame because he’s playing at his absolute peak right now.

Dame Time has been taken to a whole new level this season, which didn’t seem possible knowing his reputation around the league. He has upped his scoring and assist numbers to almost 29 and 8 per game, respectively, while also increasing his efficiencies, as he’s put up his numbers on 46/39/89 splits.

In the month of January alone, Lillard averaged 34.1 points and 8.4 assists on 49/45/88 splits. In that time, there was a two-week stretch from late-January from to early February where Lillard looked like he was making a case for MVP. During that time, he was averaging 48.8 points, 10. 2 assists and even snagged 7.2 rebounds He was so unstoppable that his 36-point outing against Houston on Jan. 29 was the lowest scoring output he had in that stretch.

Even outside of that range, when Portland asked him to give more in light of what they lost, he has delivered for them. And yet, when all of this ends, it’s not going to matter. Lillard playing like a borderline MVP candidate can only make so much of a difference when you’re relying on Mario Hezonja and Caleb Swanigan to give you serious minutes.

It should get better next year when Jusuf Nurkic is healthy and Portland gets more help along the wing, but Golden State will be back too, and the rest of the competition in the Western Conference isn’t going to cut anyone else a modicum of slack. Lillard’s only a few months away from turning 30. At times like these, he has to ponder if Portland will get him where he wants.

3. Chris Paul, Oklahoma City Thunder

Between being dumped by the team that invested so much in him last summer, being thrown into what seemed like an infinite number of trade proposals all season, and above all else, being labeled as past his prime, you’d think this would be the season that broke Chris Paul. Little did we know, we were underestimating an all-time talent just itching to prove everyone wrong.

That’s exactly what’s happened. The Thunder’s surprising resilience after losing its two best players has been two of the better feel-good storylines to come out this season, and Paul’s been the one leading the charge. Who would have thought this far into the season that the Thunder, at 40-24, would actually be in striking distance of a top-four seed in the West?

Paul has not only been the best player on the team, but he’s been the alpha dog on the best five-man lineup that’s played at least 150 minutes together in the entire league. That sounds pretty good for a guy who was supposedly falling out of his prime.

It’s weird knowing that Paul made his first All-Star team since 2016, and it feels weird to say that he’s probably going to make his first All-NBA team since 2016, too. It’s mind-blowing that in that time, no one’s forgotten about how good he is. It’s just that injuries really have gotten in his way since the end of his days as a Clipper. That really puts things into perspective. We all knew prime Chris Paul still existed. It just took a season like this for us to acknowledge how good he still is.

There’s only one teensy problem: This Oklahoma City team isn’t championship material, and that’s a shame to see Paul’s efforts go to a team that’s not going to make serious noise. But this has been fun, right?

4. Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors

Full disclaimer: Some moron thought the 2019-20 Toronto Raptors were going to be the least talented defending champion since the 2006-07 Miami Heat? All apologies to our friends north of the border for that take.

This has been a season full of teams that have exceeded expectations, and Toronto, despite being the reigning champs, might just be the premier example among all of them. There’s plenty of credit to go around between Pascal Siakam’s continued rise and Nick Nurse continuously proving himself as one of the NBA’s best coaches, but Kyle Lowry taking back the role he once had and running with it cannot go unnoticed.

Last year, his role was heavily reduced with Kawhi Leonard in the picture and Siakam taking a leap, but with more touches to go around, Lowry has gone back to his roots. Lowry’s putting up the best numbers he’s had since 2017, upping his points and assist average to almost 20/8 every single night, respectively. This while still being one of the league’s biggest pests on the defensive end, and he’s tied for most charges drawn this season with 30.

We knew Lowry had some juice left in his game, but not this much. When you factor that Toronto had to make up for the loss for Kawhi Leonard, is it more surprising that Chris Paul, who’s already regarded as an all-timer is doing what he’s doing at 34? Or that Lowry, someone with a lesser reputation, to say the least, is doing just about as much at the same age?

Lowry gets the nod over the next name on the list because he has less offensive talent around him, and yet his team is still right in the mix of the Eastern Conference playoff race. Here’s to hoping his playoff woes don’t come back as well.

5. Kemba Walker, Boston Celtics

Every once in a while, the NBA should come up with a team that consists of guys that make people think, “Thank heavens he’s on a much better team now!” If they did it this year, this is what it would probably look like.

Center – Kristaps Porzingis
Power Forward – Anthony Davis
Small Forward – TJ Warren
Shooting Guard – Tim Hardaway Jr.
Point Guard – Kemba Walker
Sixth Man – Jordan Clarkson

We all would be eagerly awaiting the day Devin Booker gets named to a team like this if it existed, but we’ve gotten off-base here. The point is, Kemba Walker, after fighting valiantly for a team stuck in mediocrity, is finally seeing his efforts be put to good use.

There may not be a player who couldn’t be happier to see his numbers drop than Kemba this season. With less usage and fewer minutes, Kemba’s scoring and assists have taken a noticeable dip. Yet no one seems to have a problem with that. Especially him. He’s gladly taken more of a complementary role next to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Because of that, he’s on a team that’s on pace to win 55 games this year, easily the best of Kemba’s career.

He’s putting up the worst numbers he’s had since 2016, averaging 21 points on 42/38/87 splits, and yet, there’s no one second-guessing on bringing him in. That’s not just because he can put the ball in the bucket. It’s because Boston’s body language has done a complete 180 with him leading the way.

The Celtics look like they enjoy playing together again. They look like they have each other’s backs again. They look like they can get past whatever struggle they are going through. Kemba’s demeanor and role as the leader has a lot to do with why they don’t look anything like the trainwreck they were last year.

Putting up All-Star numbers as well as boosting the morale of one of the league’s most dysfunctional teams last year gets him a spot on this list.

6. Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

It’s hard to ignore the strides that Simmons has made this season. Defensively, Simmons has become much smarter at using his physical advantages to become more disruptive on that end. He always had the tools to be an elite defender — and he’s never been a liability on that end — but now he has indisputably become one. Defensively, Simmons has become an all-around menace that should get him All-Defense honors this season.

It’s also hard to ignore the strides Simmons has not made this season. With the undeniable talent that he has, Ben Simmons should be a shoo-in for as a top-five point guard in the league whether Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving, and John Wall are playing at full-strength or not. It’s just that the glaring holes are still there, and they are more glaring than ever.

Simmons had to know that with JJ Redick and Jimmy Butler both gone, Philly needed him to improve both as a shooter and as a scorer to compensate for losing both of them. He hasn’t come close to that, which has led to Philly’s offense falling badly through the cracks. The 76ers have the 17th-ranked offensive rating — 110.4 points per 100 possessions — and a fair amount of blame should be put on Simmons’ shoulders. His stagnated progress on the offensive end now has many wondering if he and Embiid have a limited ceiling together.

You know how we call such uniquely talented young starlets “unicorns?” Well, if Simmons is comparable to any sort of creature, whether fictional or nonfictional, he’s basically a Tyrannosaurus Rex. We all know how frightening T-Rexes are, but those tiny arms are just so laughable to look at. That’s Simmons’ problem. He’s got plenty of tools to make him the feared player in the NBA we all thought he would be, but if the tiny arms of his game — his absent jumper — don’t improve, he can’t reach his full potential as a generational talent.

7. Russell Westbrook, Houston Rockets

Sadly we won’t divulge too much into Westbrook because we’ve already talked about how Houston’s new team schemes have made it as close to a perfect team to put around Westbrook as anyone could imagine. The extra spacing he has now that he’s surrounded by all shooters will make it so much easier for him to live in the post.

Westbrook’s tenure in Houston didn’t start out great, which was what many of us thought was going to happen, but because he’s a man that will never take a play off, we all knew he wouldn’t give up. Daryl Morey knew this about Westbrook when he brought him in this past summer, so he ultimately decided to take the “Work smarter, not harder’ approach by trading Clint Capela for Robert Covington and overloading on wings

These haven’t sprung the best results, but Westbrook has the green light now. Since the beginning of January, he’s putting up almost 32 points a game on 52/31/75 splits. The best field goal percentage he’s had in a season is a tick over 45 percent, which he’s done only twice in his career.

No one knows what the future holds, but Houston’s doing everything it can to help Westbrook thrive. Even if this doesn’t work in the end, we’ll at least know that both sides tried.

8. Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies

Remember when Memphis was trying to avoid rebuilding so that they didn’t have to worry about that first-round pick they owed Boston from the Jeff Green trade? And how that was last year?

This year was supposed to be the year they started fresh. If they did, they’ve done a bad job, because this season has been Memphis’ best all-around performance since 2017. The Grizzlies have been holding a playoff spot for a while now. That won’t mean much this season if and when the Lakers crush them in the first round, but leading your team as a rookie counts for a lot in the long-term because it gives the franchise hope as they start their next chapter. That’s what Ja Morant has done.

Seeing rookie point guards make the league take notice isn’t anything new — see Doncic, Luka — but what makes Morant stand out among others stems from his efforts leading to something substantial. Most impressive rookie point guards can dazzle, but if they are the best player on the team, then it doesn’t lead to much success-wise during their rookie season. Stats won’t do him justice — that usually happens with first-year guys — but Morant is the best player on his team, and this time, it’s translating into wins.

The last rookie point guard to do something like that was Derrick Rose. That should excite and scare Grizzlies fans at the same time. They have a kid special enough that they didn’t have to reminisce about Grit-and-Grind for one second this season. Here’s to hoping that this is the start of a long-lasting era, and not one cut short in its prime by injuries.

Admittingly, there’s a fair case that Trae Young, Jrue Holiday and Eric Bledsoe, among others, deserve the nod over Morant, but the story of Memphis’ hot-shot guard is too inspirational to leave him off of this list.

Making this list was hard because the league is filled with talented point guards. Should something like this come up next year, we could see an entirely different top eight. Everyone’s criteria are different when it comes to rankings, so let’s end this with a question.

Who would you rank as your top eight point guards?

Matt John is a staff writer for Basketball Insiders. He is currently a Utah resident, but a Massachusetts native.

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NBA Daily: Free Agent Watch – Small Forwards

Ben Nadeau continues Basketball Insiders’ Free Agent Watch by checking in on a thin small forward class.

Ben Nadeau

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With professional basketball on the horizon, all eyes have turned toward Orlando – but here, we’re trying to peer into the future too.

Frankly, the news of pending basketball seems small in comparison to some long-overdue changes. The planet-wide pandemic and sweeping protests have turned everybody’s day-to-day routines on their head – but, obviously, for one group, it has done so in awful and disproportionate ways.

If you can donate, consider doing so. If you can’t donate, educate yourself. Even if you donate, continue to read, learn and listen.

Or try this: If you finish this article and come away having learned something, donate something of your own: Time, supplies, a tough conversation — whatever. Consider it a trade, do whatever it takes. Make a difference, even if it’s a small one.

We’re approaching the halfway point in our examination of potential upcoming free agents – today, the ball keeps on rolling with the small forwards.

Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans – Restricted – $7,265,485

Across all positions, Brandon Ingram will be a top option for any franchise with oodles of cap space and a need for consistent scoring. Even then, Ingram seems destined to stay in New Orleans, no matter the cost.

Since he arrived from Los Angeles a year ago, Ingram has quickly turned into the type of stone-cold No. 1 option that can transform a roster. The 6-foot-7 youngster averaged 24.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists in 2019-20, numbers that eventually netted Ingram his first-ever All-Star Game appearance. And now, the budding star will likely see any forthcoming offer matched.

Paired with Zion Williamson, the Pelicans have developed an ideally dynamic and flexible duo to carry them into the next half-decade and beyond. With more volume and efficiency from three-point land, Ingram is evolving at a ridiculous rate – all right at home in New Orleans’ high-tempo offense. Capped off by a 49-point stunner back in January, it’s clear that future All-Star berths are just his floor.

Although the salary cap is sure to suffer after the stoppage, the 22-year-old’s future paycheck certainly won’t – he’s that good.

Gordon Hayward, Boston Celtics — Player Option — $32,700,690

Before Hayward even potentially hits free agency, he’s made waves within the NBA’s restarted bubble. On a call last week with Boston media, Hayward announced that he’d leave Orlando should his wife go into labor – whether or not the Celtics are still in the postseason.

The news seems to have passed through the Northeast without major drawback – although, surely, let’s revisit if the franchise is in Eastern Conference Finals when he departs – but could that be the end of the road in Boston? It’s nobody’s fault, of course, but the arrival of Hayward hasn’t gone as planned – and now, both the franchise and player are likely stuck at a hard fork in the road.

Hayward, naturally, has the easier, initial decision: Does he want to opt-in for $30 million-plus? On the surface, that’s a no-brainer. Getting paid a small fortune and competing for a championship is achievable NBA paradise – currently, he’s got it. But after that season, Hayward would be unrestricted, 31 years old and playing fourth fiddle to Kemba Walker, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

If Hayward is concerned with his overall fit with Boston – while the Celtics themselves must give careful consideration to how it’ll all work money-wise with Walker and Brown re-upped, alongside glue guy Marcus Smart – then opting out and securing a new multi-year deal might be on the table.

Given his injury history and any presumptive salary cap fluctuations, however, reaching the $30 million range seems far out of his reach. Either way, Hayward, finally, appears to be healthy and confident again, even averaging 17.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game. The Celtics’ will surely miss the scorer should he leave the bubble, but this partnership is likely to last at least another year.

Danilo Gallinari, Oklahoma City Thunder – Unrestricted – $22,615,559

After entering the season as potential trade bait for a Thunder roster that had just lost Paul George and Russell Westbrook, Gallinari fulfilled his status as a go-to scorer and all-around menace. The Italian played so well that Oklahoma City kept the veteran at the trade deadline even though he’s about to hit unrestricted free agency.

At the time of the shutdown, the Thunder were 40-24 and owners of the No. 5 postseason seed. Much of the attention was given toward the rise of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but Gallinari has been a healthy revelation too. Ultimately, keeping the core together for this run was worth it, even if he doesn’t land back in the midwest this offseason.

Despite the incredible campaign, Gallinari’s injury history should be a red flag for any franchise ready to hand out a lucrative deal. Since 2008, Gallinari has played 70 or more games just twice (2009-10, 2012-13) and can struggle to return once he goes down. In any case, regardless of any past ailments, he’s handled back-to-back career seasons – first in Los Angeles with the Clippers and now, obviously, with the Thunder.

At 19.2 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.1 three-pointers on 41 percent from deep, he’s been an excellent fit with Chris Paul and the young roster – but at 32 years old, is there still room to grow over a new multi-year deal?

After Ingram and Hayward, both of whom may not even hit the open market, Gallinari is the crown jewel of available small forwards, so watch this space.

Dario Saric, Phoenix Suns – Restricted – $3,481,916

Understandably, Dario Saric has become a bit of an afterthought. And that’s unfortunate because the Croatian is still useful – he just needs to find his right team.

At 26, Saric is no longer a spring chicken, but his multi-positional playmaking on the cheap will surely elevate a playoff-ready roster down the line. The 6-foot-10 forward is mobile for his size but struggled to fit next to Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton, two touch-gobbling scorers. Saric has a unique NBA skillset and he often does the little things right – but his below-average three-point percentage has hurt him.

For a brief moment, Saric had fallen out of the rotation in early February, but his all-out effort and flexibility made him tough to leave out for too long. While Kelly Oubre Jr. has not been entirely ruled out of the Orlando bubble, Saric is the ready-made replacement for the starting lineup. As the forward will likely become a restricted free agent in the offseason, these upcoming games are vastly important to prove he belongs in Phoenix.

Carmelo Anthony, Portland Trail Blazers – Unrestricted – $2,159,029

Last but not least, there’s Carmelo Anthony.

After being booted from the league for a year, the future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer has been a solid, reputable source of scoring for Portland. At 15.3 points per game, it’s not Anthony’s most high-tallying performance – duh – but it’ll be enough to secure him another gig in 2020-21. At 36, he’s still a decent option, even if efficiencies may often tell another story.

His stints with Oklahoma City and Houston withstanding, Anthony can still score. And in the NBA these days, that’s worth a stab. Anthony will no longer demand multi-year contracts or salary cap-sponging money, so he’s a low-risk, medium-reward type of player at this point. What team couldn’t use that? The legend has excelled in big moments and brings boatloads of experience – so whether he lands in a veteran-laden locker room or one that needs his guidance hardly matters now.

Bring back Carmelo Anthony in 2020… or else.

With the bubble close to resuming, we’re still unsure if two of the top players on this board are even available. Does Hayward’s eventual leave of absence impact his decision? Would the Celtics look to retain him if he opts out? And, more importantly, is there even more than two seconds of consideration before New Orleans matches whatever max offer sheet Ingram signs? Surely, if a franchise misses out on these two – if they’re out there at all – then the small forward market shrinks tinier than it already is.

Gallinari and beyond, we’ll just have to see how the season of one thousand plotlines and twists continues to unfold.

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NBA Daily: Free Agent Watch – Shooting Guards

Matt John continues Basketball Insiders’ Free Agency tracking series by taking a look at the notable shooting guards potentially hitting the market this summer.

Matt John

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Welcome back to Basketball Insiders’ Free Agency Tracker. We’ve already gone over the top point guards entering free agency this season. Now we’re taking a look at their backcourt counterparts- the shooting guards.

To be honest, this crop of free agents period isn’t exactly a loaded one compared to years’ past. The shooting guards don’t have a great free agency class, but they are among the deeper positions in free agency. There aren’t currently any elite ones potentially going on the free market — DeMar DeRozan once was considered elite, but not now — but there are some shooting guards out there who can make a difference in a playoff series.

What’s odd is that among the highest-paid shooting guards that could go on the market are in similar situations for different reasons. Let’s start with the two best at the respective position that could potentially hit the open market once the season concludes.

DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio Spurs — Player Option — $27,739,975
Evan Fournier, Orlando Magic — Player Option — $17,000,000

How can a no-win situation get worse? Ask DeMar DeRozan. It was already tricky enough for him to decide what to do with his player option. He can either stay in San Antonio, whose present is a sinking ship that DeRozan is not reportedly happy to be on, or he can risk losing millions of dollars by playing the field in an offseason with hardly any teams to offer the contract a player of his caliber would demand.

And that was before COVID-19 dismantled the league’s salary cap. DeRozan is one of the league’s premier bucket-getters, and the evolution in his all-around game offensively doesn’t get the credit it deserves. Sadly for him, there are two things he’s not particularly good at that the NBA needs from max contract players now more than ever: shooting and defense.

DeRozan got away with this during his days as a Raptor because he was one of their top dogs on a well-crafted team built for him to thrive. But, since moving to San Antonio, being at the forefront of the Spurs’ downfall over the last two years has made his blemishes stand out now more than ever. Because his style of play grows more and more outdated by the day, both sides seem prepared to move on from each other. Unfortunately for both of them, in an upcoming, uncertain free agency period where available money will be scarce, it may not be the best idea for DeRozan to walk away from upwards of $28 million.

He never deserved this. He gave his all to Toronto to put them on the map. He did his best to fill in the void left by Kawhi Leonard in San Antonio. He’s being punished when all he did was show his utmost loyalty to begin with. That’s one of the worst non-injury fates a basketball player can endure. Not many players in NBA history have had to go through a decision as tough as DeRozan will — stay with a team you don’t have a future with, or potentially take a massive pay cut?

Should DeMar DeRozan leave San Antonio? Of all the rhetorical questions in the NBA right now, this is definitely among the rhetorical-est. Then, there’s Fournier.

2016 really was a different time. Back when pretty much every team thought they could do no wrong no matter who they added. When you look at the moves the Magic made at that time — and they made some bad ones — they definitely were one of those teams. Among all the ill-advised moves they made, Evan Fournier was one of those guys that was paid just right for his services. Paying $85 million over five years for a complementary scorer such as he is an adequate price. It’s really quite astounding that he was given a fair pretty deal when you see what other players were paid then.

Now he’s got the option to pocket $17 more million or test the open market. The salary cap falling off a cliff will probably make the decision easier for him than it would have in any other year of free agency. That’s a shame because this season’s easily been his best as a pro — averaging almost 19 points on 47/41/82 splits — but with the lack of funds available, there’s really no reason for him to risk leaving that money on the table, and being in Orlando isn’t a bad situation… right?

Really, it’s his long-term prospects that he has to think about. At 27 years old, Fournier is now entering his prime as a player. His career has been a fun story to watch unfurl because he was originally viewed as a throwaway asset when he was first traded to Orlando six years ago. We’ve seen pretty much ever since that’s definitely not the case with him, but Fournier’s contributions have led to five playoff games in Orlando. He has to ask himself if it’s worth it to stay as a secondary scorer on the most average team in the entire league.

In a normal offseason, DeRozan and Fournier would similarly opt-out but for different reasons. DeRozan would opt-out to find another team that has better use for him, while Fournier would opt out looking for a deserved raise — but because the money they are looking for isn’t going to be around, expect the opt-in.

There is another pair of highly-paid shooting guards who, much like DeRozan and Fournier, are in similar situations but are in completely different stages in their career.

Tim Hardaway Jr., Dallas Mavericks — Player Option — $18,975,000
Nicolas Batum, Charlotte Hornets — Player Option — $27,130,435

There is literally just one similarity between these two players. Even before COVID-19 hit, they were going to take that player option because there was no way either of them was getting that kind of cash on the open market (thankfully, the salary cap hangover from the insanity of 2016 and 2017 is almost over). Besides that, these two couldn’t be more different.

Putting all money aside, Tim Hardaway Jr. has been awesome for the Mavericks this year. At least for what they’ve asked of him. As the designated third wheel next to Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, Hardaway has thrived in his new role. His numbers dropped just as they were expected to — from 19 points to 16 — but the man is putting up his best effective field goal percentage (55.4) and best true shooting percentage (58.1), which has no doubt come from both playing with Luka and under Rick Carlisle.

A man of Hardaway’s talents is tailored more for being the complementary scorer on a rising playoff team like Dallas rather than being the top dog for a young team looking for direction like the New York Knicks. It’s amazing how anyone with eyes can see that except the Knicks themselves. Of course, guys can just score and it means absolutely nothing, but Hardaway actually has the best net rating in Dallas, as the Mavericks are plus-6.1 when he’s on the floor. Not bad for someone who was supposed to be a throw-in from the Kristaps Porzingis trade.

Literally the biggest problem with his game right now is that he’s being paid more than he’s worth and…that’s about it. It may sound ridiculous, but there is such a thing as being so overpaid that it makes you underrated. That’s exactly what Hardaway is. Of course, Dallas would probably prefer to have the cap space, but at least they overpay for someone who actually does something for them on the court. Charlotte can’t say the same with Nicolas Batum.

It’s not Batum’s fault that Charlotte basically paid him like a franchise player back in 2016. If money like that is on the table, how can you say no? At the height of his game, Batum was arguably the league’s best glue player. His lanky arms and skinny physique make him somewhat of an all-around terror in all phases of the game — defense, shooting, rebounding, and oddly enough, passing. Or at least it did back when Charlotte played him consistent minutes.

Batum’s impact has died a slow and painful death in Charlotte that over the last two years, he’s basically just been accumulating healthy scratches. Even after the team waived Marvin Williams and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Batum hasn’t managed to play one single minute in the NBA since Jan. 24. Over 22 games, he’s put up 3.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3 assists a.k.a. stats that make you scream, “WHAT HAPPENED TO YOU, NICOLAS BATUM?!”

Maybe playing in the league for 12 years has taken its toll on Batum’s body, but the veteran forward is only 31. That’s why there might be a light at the end of the tunnel for both him and the Hornets — besides the fact that he’ll be off their payroll this time next year. With him likely to opt-in, we might get to see the old Batum resurface with the new contract coming up. Whether he does or doesn’t, the quicker the Hornets move away from this era of basketball for them, the better.

So in case you were wondering, the highest-paid shooting guards to hit free agency are probably going to opt-in. Others who play the same position are primed to get their first payday in the NBA. There actually aren’t too many shooting guards entering restricted free agency, but the best ones who are are names you should be familiar with.

Bogdan Bogdanovic, Sacramento Kings — Restricted — $9,000,000
Malik Beasley, Minnesota Timberwolves — Restricted — $1,958,379

There’s really not much to say about Bogdanovic’s free agency that we didn’t already know. He’s one of the league’s premier hybrid playmaker/scorers among NBA second units. Unless there’s something going on behind closed doors, there shouldn’t be anything stopping the Kings from paying him what he wants this offseason. Especially now that they’ve offloaded Dewayne Dedmon and Trevor Ariza from their cap. Seriously, why did they bring those guys in again?

The only detail worth questioning is: How much will they give him? Bogi certainly deserves more money, but the lack of cap room going around may limit how much money interested parties are willing to offer for him. The Kings should show him how much they value what he does, but both his restricted free agency and the lack of money give Sacramento more leverage than they are used to. Bogdanovic should stay a King, but we know what the Kings are and are not capable of.

Then, there’s Beasley. Beasley correctly bet on himself when he demanded the Nuggets to trade him to a team willing to give him the minutes he wanted. Since going to Minnesota, he’s putting up excellent numbers that you never thought you’d see from him — nearly 21 points on 47/43/75 splits are sensational numbers for a midseason addition who honestly didn’t cost much to get.

The only two hangups from this situation are that Beasley played this well for 14 games and his contributions didn’t lead to much; the Timberwolves went 4-10 in that span. Now that their season is over, they have to decide if his play was enough to earn him the payday that he clearly wants.

Again, restricted free agency gives teams more leverage, but the Timberwolves might very well be onto something with their midseason shakeups. There’s not a whole lot of avenues for them to get better, so perhaps the best plan for them from here on out is to see what they have here.

There are definitely some other notable free-agent shooting guards this coming offseason:

  • Joe Harris’ sharpshooting should attract plenty of suitors, but the cap crunch will probably prevent any unforeseen departure from Brooklyn. Ditto for E’Twaun Moore seeing how New Orleans also has his bird rights.
  • Tony Snell has no business being on a rebuilding team like Detroit, but no one’s going to pay him the $11 million that the Pistons will if he opts in.
  • Wes Matthews and Austin Rivers have been among the NBA’s best economical additions this past season. Typically guys like them don’t come cheaply the next year, but it might not be up to them.
  • Avery Bradley and Rodney Hood are more than likely going to opt-in both because of the cap crunch and their seasons ending prematurely.
  • Until they can’t shoot the rock anymore, guys like Kyle Korver and Marco Belinelli will be in the NBA. With who is anyone’s guess, but their jumper is a weapon that every NBA team will want.

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NBA

NBA Daily: Free Agent Watch – Point Guards

Shane Rhodes starts off Basketball Insiders’ new “Free Agent Watch” series, looking at the best free agent point guards set to hit the market this summer.

Shane Rhodes

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We’re in the home stretch!

It’s July, and the NBA is set to reconvene in just 26 days — of course, those may be the longest 26 days in recorded history, but the wait is sure to be worth it. Soon enough, Adam Silver will have crowned the next NBA champions.

Of course, the postseason should come-and-go in an instant, with an infinitely condensed offseason set to follow — and unfortunately, just as the season has, the draft, training camp and free agency are sure to feel the restrictions of COVID-19. With that in mind, we here at Basketball Insiders are taking another look at the coming offseason, specifically at the soon-to-be free agent class position-by-position.

Today, our first entry in our Free Agent Watch, we’ll look at the point guards. Let’s jump in.

Fred VanVleet, Toronto Raptors — Unrestricted — $9,000,000

Even with the salary cap expected to dip next season, don’t expect it to keep VanVleet to get anything less than his due.

Just 26 years old, VanVleet is cruising into his prime and has already proven himself an essential fixture on a championship-caliber roster — don’t expect his services to come cheap, and don’t expect him to sit on the open market for long. With VanVleet, however, it isn’t so much about how much he may earn, but where he may earn it. The former undrafted free agent has seemingly made a home in Toronto, but the Raptors face a number of other pressing financial issues in addition to VanVleet’s upcoming free agency.

Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka, vital in their own right to Toronto’s championship run a season ago, are also set to hit the market. Meanwhile, Pascal Siakam’s contract extension — worth more than $30,000,000 per year through the 2023-24 season — is set to start next season as well. Do Masai Ujiri and Co. see VanVleet as a star to pair with Siakam in the long term, or would the Raptors opt instead to re-sign Gasol and Ibaka (or at least attempt to) in order to maintain a more balanced roster?

Only time will tell. Either way, and in spite of the current global financial downturn, expect VanVleet to get paid rather handsomely — certainly more so than any other point guard expected to hit the market — come free agency.

Goran Dragic, Miami HEAT — Unrestricted — $17,000,450

Relative to the other guards in the free-agent crop, Dragic is old. But, even at 34, Dragic, who has transitioned to a reserve role in Miami, should continue to contribute at a high level over the next few seasons.

Dragic started just one game during the regular season, his fewest since his rookie year. That said, the reduced workload had proven a boon for his health; after a (mostly) lost 2018-19 season, in which Dragic played just 36 regular season games, he had rebounded mightily before the league was shut down. In 54 games, he averaged 16.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 5.1 assists and shot 37.7 percent from three.

Given he’s made just three postseason appearances in his career, it wouldn’t shock anyone to see the 14-year veteran Dragic re-up with the HEAT — with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in the fold, Miami should find themselves in the thick of the postseason hunt over the life of Dragic’s next deal. Any other roster — and most would be more than happy to work him in — with a legitimate title shot in the next few seasons wouldn’t be much of a surprise, either.

Would an opportunity to start for around the same (or even higher) contract value persuade Dragic to join an up-and-coming roster or non-contender? It would seem unlikely, again citing his lack of postseason appearances, but it’s something to keep in mind.

Kris Dunn, Chicago Bulls — Restricted — $4,372,072

It would seem as if Dunn’s time in Chicago is over.

Coby White and Tomas Satoransky have displaced Dunn on the Bulls’ depth chart, while their presence would also preclude Chicago from matching any deal worth more than Dunn’s potential $7,091,457 qualifying offer. Meanwhile, the Bulls have a guaranteed lottery pick in a draft loaded with talent at the guard position.

So, what exactly would push Chicago to retain Dunn, or interest any team in adding him as a free agent? Elite defense.

Yes, Dunn has proven a bit limited on offense — he’s not exactly a score-first guard, and his ability as a passer isn’t spectacular, either. But Dunn is a defensive menace, a kind of player any roster looking to make noise in the postseason could take advantage of.

He may not garner the proper respect given the Bulls’ position near the bottom of the league, but Dunn made a legitimate case for an All-Defense nod in 2019; he was second to Ben Simmons in steals per game while he led all qualified players with 2.9 steals per 36 minutes.

Dunn is also more than capable of defending another team’s top offensive option and, given that he may not earn much next season, should prove a steal for any team looking to either shore up their defense or boost it to the next level.

Reggie Jackson, Los Angeles Clippers — Unrestricted — $734,025

Jackson may have the most to gain of nearly any player from the NBA’s restart.

Bought out by the Detroit Pistons back in February, Jackson was afforded the opportunity to aid the Clippers in their quest toward the NBA Finals. In doing so, he also has the perfect opportunity to recoup major value he had lost in recent seasons with Detroit.

In recent years, poor play, injury and a bad Pistons roster had relegated Jackson to the scrap heap, knocking him down from a once-promising (or breakout, even) player to an overpaid stat stuffer that didn’t necessarily help the team win games. Yes, on paper, Jackson’s Detroit tenure looked strong — 16.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 35.4 percent three-point percentage in his four full seasons with the team.

But, when you take into account that the Pistons managed to finish with a winning percentage above .500 just once in those four seasons and never finished higher than eighth in the Eastern Conference, those stats start to feel empty.

If nothing else, Jackson needed a change of scenery and looked strong in his few games with Los Angeles prior to the shutdown. In nine games with the Clippers, Jackson averaged 9.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists and shot a blistering 52.5 percent from the field and 45.2 percent from three in 19.4 minutes per game.

He certainly wasn’t going to earn anything close to the 5-year, $80,000,000 deal he signed back in 2015. That said, Jackson, 30, is young enough that — if he can turn that mini-resurgence into an even stronger postseason performance — he shouldn’t have any trouble finding a long(ish)-term deal next season (and could maybe even play himself back into a prominent role).

Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks — Unrestricted — $19,000,000

Teague isn’t the “flashy” move. He certainly won’t swing a series or push a team into title contention.

That said, he’s still capable of solid production. Split between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Atlanta Hawks this season, Teague averaged 10.9 points, 5.2 assists and shot 43.6 percent from the field — not great, but good enough in spot duty and limited minutes off the bench.

Teague also shot 36.8 percent from three, making him a solid addition for any team that has struggled with their shot from the outside.

That said, most interest in Teague may come in his veteran presence. A quality leader, Teague also has plenty of playoff experience, having made the postseason in nine of his 12 seasons. With Vince Carter now retired, the Hawks may opt to bring him back to serve in a similar role, albeit at a massively reduced salary.

These five may prove the best of the bunch, but the point guard group set to hit the market is deep. Expect more than a few to prove solid additions capable of some serious impact. And with that, make sure to keep on the lookout for the rest of our positional Free Agent Watch series later this week.

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