To make money from betting on the NBA you need to invest time. Being able to spot value is a skill that you develop over many years of studying the game. But there is a way that you can speed this process up and that’s by using NBA picks.
Throughout this article, we’re going to look at a range of topics regarding NBA picks and more specifically, how to find good picks. At Basketball Insiders we pride ourselves on our picks and we wanted to highlight the approach that our team takes to consistently make profits from NBA betting season after season.
Best NBA Sports Betting Picks Sites
To make the most money possible, you need to be flexible about which betting sites you use. Ideally, you want to have access to more than one to get the best possible prices and features.
Below we’ve included an overview of what we think are the best NBA sports betting picks sites. Later in the article, we take the top 5 and dig a little deeper as to how and why we’ve come up with the betting sites that we have.
Basketball Insiders’ NBA Betting Picks
The Cleveland Cavaliers (25-18 SU, 28-15 ATS) head to Oklahoma City to take on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder (14-27 SU, 27-14 ATS). Will the Cavaliers finish their road trip with a win, or will the rested Thunder protect their home court? Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Odds and Lines Sportsbook: BetOnline Over/Under: […]
On Friday, Jan. 14, 2022, the Phoenix Suns (31-9) are playing the Indiana Pacers (15-27) at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Will Caris LeVert and the Pacers drop their third consecutive game this season? This is the first meeting between Phoenix and Indiana this regular season. Register an account with BetOnline and claim a free bet worth up […]
In Friday night’s Eastern Conference rematch, the Orlando Magic (7-35) are playing the Charlotte Hornets (23-19) at Spectrum Center. Will Cole Anthony and the Magic put an end to their 10-game losing streak? Register an account with BetOnline and claim a free bet worth up to $1,000. Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Hornets news Heading into […]
What are NBA Picks?
NBA picks are bets that you can place on NBA games throughout the season. These picks come from a range of sources, and each has their own opinions on what they think will be a winning bet.
For example, if we said to you that we think the LA Lakers will win the next NBA Championships at +800, then this would be an NBA pick.
Who you get your picks from will range. Social media has increased the number of “experts” exponentially and there are now hundreds to choose from. On top of this, you have betting blogs, podcasts, radio shows, TV shows and even betting apps that give you their latest picks.
In all honesty, it can be a bit of a minefield, so in this guide, we wanted to break each section down, so you know what to look for and where to find reliable tips.
Spoiler alert, ours (Basketball Insiders) are the best!
Before we move on, we wanted to clarify a question that we get asked a lot and that is how do they differ from NBA draft picks?
Draft picks are made by each NBA franchise at the end of each season. They draft a player onto their roster to play for them for the following amount of time-based on the contract signed.
Draft picks and NBA betting picks are not the same, so don’t get these confused.
How to Find the Best NBA Picks Today
To know when you’re on to some of the best NBA picks is a skill. Being able to separate the good picks from the bad picks is something that you need to learn and only when you do this will you start making money.
You need to start by researching who you’re betting with. One of the things we look at is how reputable is the source.
For example, if you find a Twitter account with 130 followers and they are sending out weekly betting tips on the NBA, chances are this is not a good place to start. Granted, this could be a growing following, but there are thousands of accounts in the same spot and the best always rise to the top.
13 games on the #NBA schedule tonight.
🏀 Suns @ Cavs
🏀 Lakers @ Pacers
🏀 Nets @ Celtics (ESPN)
🏀 Raptors @ Grizzlies
🏀 Heat @ Twolves
🏀 76ers @ Warriors (ESPN)
— Basketball Insiders (@BBallInsiders) November 24, 2021
Generally, you want to start with reputable brands. At Basketball Insiders we’ve created a team that produces only basketball picks. It’s their job. They sit and analyze every game to find bets that are going to offer the most value.
Success is incredibly easy to track. All you’re looking for is if they’ve made a profit over the last few games, weeks, months, and seasons. It’s not uncommon for good pickers to have lean weeks and even months, but the best rarely has losing seasons.
Transparency is key. The best NBA picks will be happy to show you all their bets and then their profit and loss account as well. In fact, this should be their biggest marketing tool, and the best in the business shout this from the rooftops.
Don’t always look at the amount of money they have made. This can be offset by a couple of wins and depending on what they stake, can look better than it is.
If you’ve got someone who is betting $10,000 per point (often referred to as a set amount to bet on each pick, usually highlighted by how many points per pick to wager) and they’ve made $20,000 that year, then yes, this is a lot of money to most, but in reality, they’re only just better than breakeven.
So, how can Basketball Insiders help?
Well, for one we take an incredible amount of time to compile each NBA pick. Take a relatively recent game between the Detroit Pistons and the Houston Rockets.
As you can see, this is a 1,000-word article all about trying to find the single best bet for the game. Considered here are stats such as head to heads, high points scores, assists, rebounds, player matchups, points per quarter, previous performances, spread bet options, shooting percentages, starting line ups, betting trends, home, and away form, and so much more.
This is not your average betting pick article, it covers all bases, but just like any good math student, before getting to the answer, we show our workings.
It just so happened that for this bet we tipped Pistons at +3.5 and to go over 210 points on the spread. Pistons won the game 112 – 104, winning the bet and covering the spread.
Now, not all picks are going to be successful, but good tipping sites will explain their bets. You can then take this information and either agree or disagree. But either way, you know how they’ve come to the conclusion that they have.
NBA Sports Betting Picks
It’s only when you start to scratch the surface of NBA sports betting picks do you realize just how many markets you can bet on. Most sites will look to concentrate on one or two bet types and then really go to town on those.
However, this does limit you if you’re looking to find the best possible bet for every game. Because it’s almost never going to just be a moneyline bet or a spread or a parlay. You need to be flexible about what you’re willing to bet on and the person/site whose picks you’re using has to as well.
Below we’ve included several types of picks that betting experts tend to focus on for betting on the NBA.
NBA Parlay Picks
Given that there are so many games to bet on in the NBA (1230 every season!), parlay bets make a lot of sense. A parlay is where you include two or more selections in a single bet. Across Europe, this is known as an accumulator bet.
The reason why these are so popular is that you can create massive bets from these picks. The more you add in, the higher the odds.
There are a couple of ways that you can best utilize this form of betting. We recommend that you take picks from multiple games and create a single parlay.
Don’t fall into the trap of simply adding additional selections just for the sake of increasing the odds. Make sure that each selection has been recommended as a betting pick.
Let’s look at an example of how this might work.
We can include the game that we spoke about earlier that had the Pistons beating the Rockets on the handicap.
Let’s also go with two other picks we made to create three picks in total:
- Pistons to beat the Rockets -4
- Golden State Warriors to beat Toronto Raptors by 9
- Oklahoma City to beat Atlanta Hawks by 11.5
Just for ease, we will assume that each spread bet here was priced at -115, which is about average for these types of bets.
For a parlay, we need to combine these odds to get our final price. For this, we would get a payout of $553.46 for every $100 wagered.
By combining these bets into a parlay we’ve taken uninviting odds of -115 for each and combined them into something much more exciting.
The trick for NBA parlay picks is knowing which bets to take from which tipsters. As a rule of thumb, go with your gut and don’t add picks just for the sake of increasing the bottom line. Only add them for value if you think they offer good value.
You can mix this up a little more with NBA same game parlay bets as well. This is where you have multiple bets that are all tied to the same game.
An example might be something like a team to win, the game covers a point spread and a player to score over a set number of points all from the same game.
This is a good bet type to use if you work with multiple pick sites and they each have a different market picked for the same game. Play-off and Championship games are the best for these types of parlays.
NBA Spread Picks
NBA spread picks are another very common bet type for betting on the NBA. The spread is all about the handicap that is applied to each team.
The concept is that the sportsbook is trying to give one team an advantage over the other in terms of points that will eventually make for an even contest. One team will have points added to their final score and one will have them removed.
It’s the sportsbook’s job to try and get these as close to the same odds for both bets. However, this is not always the case, and you often see markets that are priced at -110 and -120, as an example.
In terms of spread picks, this is something that most sites will cover. At Basketball Insiders we tend to take the role of looking at the spread bet for each game. It’s an easy market to include if you’ve conducted enough research as you should be able to see if the spread favors one team over the other.
If we jump back into our Thunder v Hawks example above, we took the Hawks on the spread at -11.5. This means that they had to win by 12 or more. It turned out that they won by exactly 12, which gave us another winner.
For those of you who want to make their own spread picks, you need to look at points per game stats, as well as the breakdown between points scored at home and on the road, as they can differ quite dramatically.
Don’t be afraid to make NBA picks against the spread as this can sometimes offer better value.
NBA Futures Picks
NBA futures picks are some of the most lucrative bets that you can get. This is where the person who is making the picks is looking into the future and predicting the winner of events that might be weeks or months in advance.
One of the most common bets for this is NBA playoff picks. The playoffs are widely regarded as the business end of the season and it’s here that all teams are striving to get into.
Making picks on this at the start of the season is tough. They need to be looking at what trades have been made and the rosters that each time are putting out for the year. You can consider previous seasons’ form, but if lots of changes have been made from that team, then it becomes a lot less relevant.
The best NBA pickers won’t go too heavy on future bets. There are too many variables to consistently make money from these bets, but they can be used as a bit of a novelty bet for a small portion of the bankroll.
NBA Prop Picks
NBA prop picks aren’t as common as the ones listed above, but you will find sites that offer them, albeit on a more condensed scale. Prop betting in NBA is just as popular as other sports, but there is a reluctance for sites to pick these as they can be incredibly volatile.
Some of the more common props picks include NBA Coach of the Year, defensive player of the year, most improved player of the year, rookie of the year, scoring leader, sixth man of the year, and a range of specials.
The specials are targeted more toward single games. These are usually bets about if certain players will get ejected from the game or which out of two players will make more fouls.
We would advise you to tread a little more cautiously with prop picks and use your intuition as to how much value they offer.
How to Use NBA Betting Picks to Bet
We’re going to look at how to find NBA picks and then place a bet using these exact picks.
At Basketball Insiders, we upload daily betting picks for the NBA. We try and look at all games, but due to the volume and the fact that some offer better betting opportunities than others, we limit our picks to the ones that we feel offer the best value.
As soon as you land on our homepage you can see the latest articles that usually include betting picks. Alternatively, you can click on the “NBA News” button at the top to see the latest articles.
You can now choose between games that you want to bet on. If you’re new and you don’t know what games you want to bet on, then just choose one or two to get started with.
For this example, we’re going to look at our Lakers Pacers betting pick and preview article.
In the article, you will see an incredible amount of information about the game. The stats will be as deep as you’ll get anywhere from any NBA picks site, and this is something that we pride ourselves on for every game that we cover.
The top of each article will look at an overview of the game. This includes start times, location, where you can watch on TV, where you can listen on the radio, any live streaming services covering the game, and ESPN’s Power Index rating for the game.
The middle section of the page is all about news on each team. This will look at recent performances and include stats on anything that jumps out and can translate to betting opportunities.
Below this, you then get a look at the betting lines for the game. We use one of the best sportsbooks for this game and highlight the over/under odds, points spread, and best moneyline prices.
The two sections at the bottom of the page are the preview and the predictions section. If you just want to dive straight into where and what we are betting on, you can go directly to the predictions section for more information.
The final part is an overview of the pick for the game. In this example, we’ve gone with the Lakers to win on the road and to cover the +4 spread. We usually give out a second bet if you want it as well and in this example, it’s the under 218.5 points line set by BetUS.
To place the bet all you need to do is click the “Pick: Lakers +2” button at the bottom of this section. The button will be set up to take you to the betting site that has the best price for that bet. In this case, it’s BetUS.
If you already have an account, then you can sign in. If you don’t then you can register an account before placing your bet. To find out more about the best NBA Picks betting site, check out the section later in this article.
To find the pick on BetUS, you need to go to the Sportsbook and then click on NBA in the Menu. Once you’ve done this, BetUS will have a long list of games that are taking place. For our bet, the game is at the top of the page, but you may need to scroll a little to find where you want to be.
All you do now is click on the odds and the bet will be added to your bet slip. Once you are logged in you can choose your stake and then click on the “Bet Now” button.
This is how you use NBA betting picks to place a bet.
Who Provides NBA Betting Picks?
There’s a huge range of people and sites that offer NBA betting picks. Some are better than others and you’ll find that each process is different.
Below we’ve included some of the more popular NBA betting picks services and the products that they use to help create their picks.
Expert NBA Betting Picks
Expert picks are the most common and whilst the term “expert” can be very loosely applied to some pickers, it generally refers to people who are picking on a daily or at worst, weekly basis.
One thing that a lot of recreational bettors get caught up in is taking heed from past players who now throw out the occasional betting pick. The reality is that the work that they put into finding if there is value to their pick based on the numbers, is low.
You’re betting following sites or individuals who are consistent. At Basketball Insiders we have a team that provides daily picks. This is their job, and they spend all day, every day in working out which is the best pick for the day.
An easy way to find out how good people are is to see their win percentages. Now, betting on the NBA and consistently winning is tough, but the best manages to find a way often.
The most accurate way to track success is ROI (Return on Investment). This is the percentage of the money they have gotten back based on what they’ve put in.
At the end of the day, a positive ROI of any sort should be judged as a success. There will be cases where people end the season with a 2% ROI but if they’ve invested $1 million over the course of the season, they’ve made $20,000.
Any expert picker above 10% ROI is someone that we would suggest are worth following.
From the 2020-21 NBA Season, Vegas Insider reported three handicappers that were all above the 10% mark and one, Micah Roberts, ending on an incredible 31.55% from 554 bets.
NBA Consensus Picks
NBA consensus picks are where odds are reflective of the amount of money or volume of bets placed on a single outcome. So for NBA betting, this might be money coming in on points spread or moneyline and then the odds fluctuate accordingly.
An easier way to phrase this would simply be to follow the money. As more people bet on a certain pick, the odds for that pick will reduce. But the thinking is that if so many people are betting on it, it must have a better chance of winning.
The image above shows three NBA games and how the consensus of bets that have been placed have been distributed amongst each team.
We can see that 72% of bettors have backed the Chicago Bulls at -9 on the spread. From 306 bets, 220 have gone with the Bulls, and just 86 have taken on the Rockets.
An easy assumption for this would be to assume that the Bulls are going to be the best bet here.
However, a lot of people are prone to the idea of betting against the consensus. This is often known as “fading the public” as you’re essentially going against their picks.
It’s helpful at this point to understand how sportsbooks work and how they set betting lines. Without going too deep, they create odds for a market that allow them to profit regardless of the result. As money comes in for one result, the odds shorten to reduce exposure and create a balanced book.
The goal is to have a book where they make a profit off both results.
When the consensus starts to take a liking to a certain bet, it displaces the odds. For example, the LA Lakers are one of the most supported teams in the NBA, so when they play live on TV more people are watching and more people are betting recreationally.
It means that regardless of if the odds or the line offer good value, people will be betting on the Lakers to win. It’s not uncommon for spreads to start at -7 and reach -11 by tip-off, simply because of it being a popular team.
To wrap this up, even though consensus betting picks have their merit to some extent, you need to be careful that they haven’t inflated lines like the spread because of the sheer volume of bets placed. Sometimes fading the public is a strong line for NBA betting.
NBA Computer Picks
Computer picks are becoming increasingly popular for NBA betting. They’re self-explanatory in that, the computer creates picks based on stats and data it has and then compares them to lines set by the betting site to work out their value.
One of the reasons why they are becoming as popular as they are is that computer picks remove all forms of human emotion and are 100% data-driven. No picks are made based on a whim or have any attachment to them at all.
Even though the best NBA pickers will state they do this, there is likely always some emotion attached. A common one is the reluctance to bet on teams that have let them down in the past, even though this is still very much where the value lies.
We’re big fans of computer picks, but only when they’ve had some human input involved as well. One thing that you can’t do with these picks is to highlight the starting lineups for each team and react to in-play events during the game.
Top NBA Picks Betting Sites Reviewed
Below we’ve included the best betting sites for NBA picks. What we’ve tried to do here is pick sites that offer a good balance between being a place to get picks and placing bets.
1- BetUS – Best Overall for NBA Picks
BetUS land in at our number one spot for NBA picks. To get to the picks you need to navigate to their sports news section and then to the NBA picks site.
The depth and range of articles that you can access are incredible. They upload at least one article per day, but this is often multiple, especially when there are big series running.
The picks articles include everything you need to know about the game. They kick each pick article off with a betting preview and then follow this with a ton of stats to bet on. The advice feels very unbiased and picks come from the data that they find for each game.
We loved that you could click the link at the bottom of the page and be taken straight to that betting market within the sportsbook.
Even if you weren’t using BetUS for NBA picks, the coverage amongst all US-based sports is right up there. They even have a streaming channel where you can watch videos made by BetUS as they preview bets and games from around the country.
New accounts to BetUS are going to enjoy a welcome bonus worth up to $2,500 on sports and an additional $625 at the casino. The sports betting offer comes with a 15x turnover attached and expires 30 days after you’ve triggered it.
- Multiple daily NBA picks articles uploaded
- Links direct to the picks in the sportsbook direct from the article
- Huge range of NBA markets and prop bets
- Largest welcome bonus worth up to $2,500 for sports
- Slow at uploading lines for the next game week
2 – MyBookie – Daily Betting Picks for NBA Markets and $1,000 Welcome Bonus
MyBookie is next up on the list of the best betting sites for NBA picks. It, like BetUS, has a dedicated news section that included a standalone NBA category.
Within it, you get tips and picks for most games on a weekly basis. The picks are all very well-informed and full of stats. They are data-driven, which is good to see, and we liked that with each they gave a predicted score. The reason that we like the score is that it opens different bets to place, so you can get value from whichever market gives you the biggest odds.
MyBookie has a great NBA betting section. Their range of props is about as good as you will find and we enjoyed the season-long bets, such as MVP, rookie of the year, most points, most rebounds, and most assists, as an example of what you can bet on.
New accounts to MyBookie can get a welcome bonus worth up to $1000. This is a 100% match of your initial deposit and comes with a 10x wagering attached.
- Daily betting picks on the NBA
- Betting picks for a range of other sports as well
- Strong betting lines throughout the NBA section
- Easy to claim and clear welcome bonus worth up to $1,000
- Slow at putting up betting lines for the following game week
3 – XBet – Low Wagering on NBA Picks Welcome Bonus and Strong Betting Lines on NBA Bets
XBet is next on the list of best NBA picks betting site and aren’t too far behind that of MyBookie. Again, you’ve got access to a betting news section where the NBA picks can be found.
The downside with this compared to others is that picks are generated on a weekly basis. So, you get one article with a highlight reel of games to choose from and then bets linked to this. A nice addition here is that XBet includes both betting picks and a final score prediction, so you can create your own bets from that.
One of the sportsbook’s strengths is its NBA betting section. All regular season and playoff games are covered, along with a host of college games. Betting markets vary, they are extremely strong when it comes to betting lines for moneyline, and points spread.
If you’re registering a new account with XBet then you get access to a welcome bonus worth up to $500. This is a smaller bonus than most, but it has just a 7x rollover attached, making it one of the most accessible.
- NBA picks on a weekly basis
- Low wagering on the $500 welcome bonus
- Strong betting lines for moneyline and points spread bets
- Smaller welcome bonus than some
NBA Picks Strategy – Pros and Cons
Getting the best value from your NBA picks has its pros and cons. It’s not always as black and white as to who to follow and how much to back them. Below we’ve included the benefits and pitfalls of using NBA picks, hopefully highlighting areas that you can avoid, allowing you to make the most money.
- Long Winning Records – The best NBA picker will have consistent records that they are willing to publish. In fact, the best use this as their main marketing tool to get people to follow them. Ideally, a positive ROI over several seasons will be enough to assure you that they are legit and worth following.
- Great for Second Opinion – One of the best ways to use an NBA picker is to have them back up bets that you want to place. For example, you do your own research on a game and then create a series of bets you think offer good value. Then, find out what other NBA tipsters are suggesting for that game and see if they align with your picks.
- Well Researched Bets if Short on Time – We would all like to spend hours researching basketball games to find profitable picks. The reality for most is that the time is not available. By using a trusted NBA pick you’re able to place bets on games that are as well researched and informed if you were to do them yourself.
- Data Can Be Outdated – Sometimes you see results from pickers that are vastly outdated. It might be that they’ve not updated their record for months and this is usually because they’ve not been as good as they would hope. Outdated records should sound big alarm bells. After all, if you were making winning picks all the time, you’d be shouting this from the rooftops.
- Tough to Know Who to Trust – It’s easy to manipulate NBA pick records, so it’s hard to know who to trust. If this is the case, try and find people with large followings and avoid pop-up Twitter accounts that likely offer no value at all.
- Can be Expensive – Not all NBA picks are free to access. Some sites and pickers will charge for their service which is a cost that you need to roll into your ROI at the end of each season. Some sites are very expensive, so you need to weigh up if a paid NBA picker is worth the money?
NBA Picks – Conclusion
Using NBA picks is one of the strongest tools you can apply to your betting strategy. There are thousands of pickers out there, so you need to take the time to choose ones that you trust and that is going to make you some money.
At Basketball Insiders we’ve been making profitable NBA picks for several years now. We’ve created a team that is dedicated to picks and only picks. It’s for this reason why we have one of the biggest and most successful NBA followings in the world. And the best thing about it all? Our NBA picks are 100% free of charge.
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