If there’s one thing I’m good at, it’s making NBA predictions that end up being correct right about half the time. Every season for as long as I’ve been writing about basketball, I’ve made 50 predictions about the forthcoming season, only to return to those predictions in the spring and berate myself for believing the things I believed back in the fall. It’s an annual emotional rollercoaster.
Well, it’s the fall, which means regardless of whether or not readers agree with these predictions, most can at least see how a good deal of them could come to fruition. Flip a coin, though, because last season I only went 21-for-42. Here’s to hoping I do a little better than that this season.
On to this season’s NBA predictions:
1. James Harden will lead the league in scoring this season.
2. Both he and Russell Westbrook will top 30 points per game.
3. DeAndre Jordan will lead the league in rebounds.
4. John Wall will be the only player in the league to average 10.0 or more assists per game.
5. J.J. Redick will be among the top eight players in the league in terms of three-pointers made.
6. Rudy Gobert will lead the league in blocks.
7. Once again, the Boston Celtics (not the Cleveland Cavaliers) will post the best record in the Eastern Conference.
8. Last season the Houston Rockets broke the record for most three-pointers attempted in an NBA season. They’re going to break that record again.
9. The Golden State Warriors are going to win a ton of games in 2017-2018, as they always do, but once again they will fall just a touch shy of 70 wins.
10. The Northwest Division (Denver, Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Portland and Utah) will have more collective wins than any other division in basketball.
11. The Minnesota Timberwolves will win at least 20 more games than they did last season.
12. The three top scoring teams in the league all will be in the Western Conference.
13. Dennis Smith will be Rookie of the Year.
14. He also is going to lead all rookies in scoring.
15. Ben Simmons and Lonzo Ball both will average more than 6.5 assists per game.
16. Simmons and Philadelphia teammate Markelle Fultz both will be on the All-Rookie First Team.
17. John Collins will lead all rookies in rebounds and blocks.
18. Lauri Markkanen will lead all rookies in made three-pointers.
19. Jordan Bell will be this year’s most successful second-rounder.
20. One game or fewer will determine which team will be the 8th seed in the Western Conference playoffs and which team will have the least ping pong balls in the lottery that year.
21 Milwaukee will be a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference and will have homecourt advantage in the first round.
22. Philadelphia does make the postseason, but as a seventh or eighth seed.
23. For the fourth season in a row, it will be the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers playing in the NBA Finals.
24. The Golden State Warriors will (once again) win the NBA championship.
25. Giannis Antetokounmpo will win the MVP award this year. With LeBron James likely being more restful than ever in the regular season and Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden deferring more often to other superstars on their respective teams, Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard have the clearest road to individual dominance this year. Something tells me Giannis is on the precipice of doing some truly amazing things, both physically and statistically.
26. Kawhi Leonard will win Defensive Player of the Year. His streak was broken by Draymond Green a year ago. He’ll get it going again with a win in 2018.
27. Brad Stevens will win NBA Coach of the Year.
28. J.R. Smith is going to win Sixth Man of the Year. This award typically values scorers on good teams, and that’s exactly what J.R. is to going to be this year. If he had to get booted to the reserves, he may as well be the best one, right?
29. The Most Improved Player typically is someone who goes from being good to being elite, and that guy this year looks like it will be Joel Embiid, Kristaps Porzingis or Nikola Jokic. For the sake of settling on one, I’ll say Porzingis.
30. Danny Ainge will win Executive of the Year. Getting his hands on Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward without giving up much and landing a top rookie prospect in Jayson Tatum is about as good as it gets.
31. After finding himself in just about every single Phoenix Suns trade rumor over the course of the last three seasons, this is the year Eric Bledsoe finally gets moved midseason.
32. There are big questions surrounding New Orleans’ roster, which likely will lead to some DeMarcus Cousins trade rumors. The Pelicans will not, however, trade the All-Star big man.
33. In the midst of their rebuild, Atlanta will try to move Kent Bazemore, the most expensive player on their roster. They will not succeed in this.
34. There has been a Kenneth Faried mention in the trade predictions section of this article seemingly every year, so let’s keep it going. This is the year Faried finally gets shipped from Denver.
35. Jahlil Okafor will be a Chicago Bull by the end of the season.
36. Portland’s frontcourt is absolutely loaded. As such, at least one of their big men will get shipped by the deadline.
37. At least one of the Lopez twins will not finish the season on the same team he started the year playing with.
38. Cleveland’s “Brooklyn Pick,” despite being a hot commodity with the potential to bring in another star player for a championship run, will not change hands. That pick stays with Cleveland.
39. The Chicago Bulls have led the league in attendance for years, but not this season. If the Chicago Bears still are going to have tickets available on game day, so are the Bulls. This season, Cleveland leads the league in attendance for the first time ever.
40. The Atlanta Hawks will win the draft lottery.
For the second year in a row, my fellow writers at Basketball Insiders will bear the burden of making these predictions, and they too will be held accountable when we revisit these in the spring. Here’s a look at some of their bold predictions:
41. Joel Embiid will play at least 70 games this year. (Dennis Chambers).
42. Joel Embiid will not play 60 games. In the games he does play he will look awesome and put up amazing stats, but his absences will ultimately cost the Sixers the playoffs. (Steve Kyler).
43. Marcus Smart will shoot at least a league average percentage on deep balls this season. (Shane Rhodes).
44. Giannis Antetokounmpo will become the first player in NBA history to lead his team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in back-to-back seasons (Tommy Beer).
45. This will be the first time in Carmelo Anthony’s Hall of Fame career that he will not average 20 points per game. (Lang Greene).
46. The Wizards will finish with the second-best record in the Eastern Conference, ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers. (Brian Fritz).
47. Blake Griffin and Danillo Gallinari both will play in at least 60 games this year. (Jesse Blancarte).
48. Lonzo Ball and Ben Simmons each will have at least ten triple doubles this season. (Michael Scotto).
49. Bogdan Bogdanovic will finish among the top three in Rookie of the Year voting. (Benny Nadeau).
50. The Memphis Grizzlies will miss the playoffs for the first time in seven seasons. (Spencer Davies).
You’re going to read a lot of predictions articles this time of year, but I’m the only one who will come to these predictions at the end of the season to gauge how smart (or, more likely, how completely and utterly stupid) I was in making some of these. Check back in June for the wrap-up, and here’s to another great season of NBA basketball!
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