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NBA Daily: The Grizzlies Are Stuck

The Grizzlies’ struggles of late would usually signal a rebuild, but Matt John believes that’s going to be harder than people think.

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Grit-and-Grind is unfolding, and it’s unfolding fast.

After a blistering 12-5 start to the season, the Grizzlies are falling hard in the standings. The team has only won seven of its last 27 games – good for a record of 19-25 – which has them placed currently 14th in the bloodbath that is the Western Conference playoff race.

For a team that’s gone through pretty much nothing but turmoil over the past couple of seasons, it’s been more of the same this year. They butchered a trade over name confusion, a few of their core guys are out awhile – including one for the season – and they’ve even had a scuffle in the locker room.

It’s only going to get worse from here. The Grizz have lost nine of their last 10 games, and over their next several games, they’ll be facing the Celtics, Raptors, Pacers and Nuggets, five of arguably the best ten teams in the league. They’ll also be facing the Timberwolves, the Hornets and the Pelicans in that time, which won’t be a cakewalk either.

Memphis is currently five games in back of Utah for the eighth seed, and of all the teams vying for a playoff spot in the West, they have the lowest point differential with minus-2.2, which is fairly lower than the team that comes after them – Sacramento – with minus-0.8.

It’s not fun to watch a franchise’s most glorious era end so anti-climactically, but with everything that’s gone wrong for Memphis, it’s time for them to consider rebuilding. What’s unfortunate for them is that if they go for that route, things are going to get complicated.

Let’s start with what they owe Boston. Thanks to the Jeff Green trade back in 2015, the Grizzlies owe the Celtics a top-eight protected pick this season. If that rolls over to next year, it becomes a top-six protected pick. If it rolls over to the year after that, it becomes completely unprotected.

Zach Lowe stated in a recent podcast with Bill Simmons that the Grizzlies would prefer to fork over their pick to the Celtics now instead of potentially giving them another golden lottery pick as Brooklyn did. That makes sense if a rebuild is in their immediate future. However, if they continue to slump the way they have, giving Boston that pick might be even harder.

Besides the fact that none of their competitors in the West look to be slowing down, the playoff hopefuls in the East are also going to give it their all to make the playoffs. As it stands, Washington, Orlando and Detroit, who all have nearly identical records with Memphis, are all much closer to Charlotte for the eighth spot in the playoff race than they are to Atlanta for the 12th spot. In layman’s terms, they’re not in a position to tank, so don’t expect them to.

The only teams that are most definitely out of the playoff race are Phoenix, Cleveland, Chicago, Atlanta and New York. Memphis finishing right after those teams could definitely be in play, which would mean they keep the pick, and Boston gets a chance at an even better one next year.

That might not be the best thing for the Grizzlies since Marc Gasol and Mike Conley aren’t getting any younger. Regardless of the Boston pick, it may be in Memphis’ best interests to trade both of them with how things have gone. If Marc Stein’s most recent reporting involving Gasol is correct, then that should be the case.

Trading Conley would not be hard. Now that he’s past his injury issues, he’s put up his usual numbers, has a manageable contract (relatively speaking) and could legitimately help someone’s playoff hopes. In Gasol’s case, not so much.

Gasol’s age appears to now be catching up to him. Like the Grizzlies themselves, he started the season on a tear. Over the first month and a half of the season, the 33-year-old looked as good as he’s ever been, averaging 18.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, four assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.4 steals. He did this all while shooting 48 percent from the field, including 41.7 percent from three on 4.6 attempts a game.

Since then, he’s looked alarmingly average. Since the start of December, Gasol’s averaged 12.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, five assists, 0.8 steals and 1.3 blocks. His shooting percentages in that timespan are jaw-dropping, shooting only 39.6 percent from the field and 30.1 percent from three.

Gasol’s decline happening at the same time as Memphis as a team is not a coincidence. He is one of the two undisputed leaders of Grit-and-Grind. When a leader starts to slow down, the rest of the team follows suit.

That’s what makes trading for him, his $24+ million contract and his player option for next season a catch-22 for interested parties. If Gasol plays like he did during the first month-and-a-half of the season, odds are that he’ll opt out and look for his next payday on the market. If Gasol continues to play as he has from December up until now, odds are he’ll opt-in for next year for financial security.

Are teams going to give up that much for a half-season rental of a star or for a player who is past his prime who will be paid over $20 million?

There are teams who could definitely use a big like Gasol. The price tag and/or their cap situation may scare them out of trying to acquire him.

The Lakers, who have the contracts and young talent to make a trade for Gasol, could use an upgrade at center, but they’re probably not going to take their chances of letting Gasol eat up their cap space since they hope to bring in another star this summer via free agency.

The Raptors, who have similar assets as LA, could use Gasol as a potential upgrade over either Serge Ibaka or Jonas Valanciunas, but it’s very risky to mess with what’s working this far into the season for someone who is showing more and more signs of decline.

If Gasol really goes on the trading block, Memphis cannot expect much in return for him given his recent play. That’s not their fault. They came into this season hoping to keep Grit-and-Grind alive for as long as they could. If they had struggled despite Gasol’s All-Star level play at the start of the season, he probably would have been traded a while ago. If he and the team continued playing excellent basketball throughout the season, this wouldn’t even be a discussion. This all really is just a timeline of unfortunate and unforeseen circumstances culminating into an unwinnable situation.

Now, the Grizzlies could ride this out and not change a thing. Let what’s left of the Grit-and-Grind era fade into the sunset. By doing so, they’re risking letting Gasol walk for nothing this summer as well as giving Boston a better chance at a top pick. That pick they owe Boston could really go either way regardless of what Memphis does. The alternatives aren’t really that much better regardless.

No matter where they go from here, there’s one thing Memphis knows for sure.

Thank heavens for Jaren Jackson Jr.

Matt John is a staff writer for Basketball Insiders. He is currently a Utah resident, but a Massachusetts native.

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