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NBA PM: Memphis Grizzlies 2017-18 Season Preview

The Memphis Grizzlies seem to be at a cross-road. Are two-star players enough in the West? We take a look at the situation in this season preview.

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For long-time fans of the Memphis Grizzlies, the 2017 off-season has been a bittersweet affair. Fan favorites have unceremoniously departed the team. Gone are the likes of Tony Allen, Zach Randolph and Vince Carter. With them, a few more core pieces of the prime “Grit and Grind” days have departed. In their place, the Grizzlies will look to others, including a few reclamation projects, to step up and help fill the void.

FIVE GUYS THINK…

This season looks to be one of the more interesting seasons for the Memphis Grizzlies. Zach Randolph and Tony Allen are gone. Their division, and conference for that matter, is deeper and while the league is shifting to small ball play, the Grizzlies are anchored by big man Marc Gasol.

While Randolph and Allen certainly are past their glory days, they take with them a specific gritty personality that Memphis had adopted over the years. Without that, the Grizzlies may head into this season without the edge that had made them the lovable underdog tough guys in recent postseason matchups.

As the league continues to change their point of attack from half-court ball to full-court ball, this may be the season it catches up to Memphis and leaves them on the outside looking in of the playoff picture.

4th place – Southwest Division

– Dennis Chambers

Every year, a few more folks pick this to finally be the season the Grizzlies fall of the playoff wagon – and every year, they get egg on their faces. Will this finally be the year a reduced version of Grit n Grind misses the second season? On the one hand, the roster is almost scarily thin once you get past stars Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. On the other, that always seems to be the case, and it never seems to stop the Grizzlies from eking out enough wins to get it done. I’ve got them slightly outside the playoff picture, but with no absolute certainty here given their history.

4th Place – Southwest Division

– Ben Dowsett

They play the game for a reason, but it’s difficult to imagine the Grizzlies continuing to be the same team we remember them as without Zach Randolph and Tony Allen. After three years with the club, Vince Carter also followed Randolph to Sacramento, but the Grizzlies will resemble the team they have been so long as Mike Conley and Marc Gasol remain intact.

There certainly is a collection of young players on the squad that could amount to something—Andrew Harrison, Wade Baldwin and Deyonta Davis are a few—but it’s difficult to imagine the Grizzlies improving from last season. They are clearly two steps behind the Spurs and Rockets and will be pushed by a number of teams that they beat out to secure the seventh seed in last year’s playoffs. With the Northwest Division looking quite formidable, the Grizzlies are probably going to be on the outside looking in come playoff time, but that’ll largely depend on whether Chandler Parsons can give them meaningful contributions and whether or not David Fizdale can coach one or two of the youngsters up into becoming impactful players.

Anything is possible, sure, but expecting much from the Grizzlies this season may be a bit of a reach.

3rd place — Southwest Division

– Moke Hamilton

The Grizzlies are at a turning point this season. After years of being right there in the West, the Grizzlies opted to shed some of their older veterans and have taken some chances on players that have star-level ability but have not put together star-level careers. Combining some promising younger players with franchise anchors Mike Conley and Marc Gasol could be enough to swing the Grizzlies forward, but it could equally be the beginning of the end given the age of Gasol and Conley. The Grizz are a tough team to predict. They are well coached, have two underrated stars and a lot of promise on their bench, but none of that may mean anything in the West. The Grizzlies have done the hard part – they have two game changers. If any of the new faces or young guys they have invested time in turn into real players, the Grizz could be as good as they were a season ago. The problem is that’s not as likely as falling back given the volume of change and unknown.

3rd place — Southwest Division

– Steve Kyler

Some of the players that best represented the heart and spirit of the Memphis Grizzlies departed this offseason. Vince Carter, Zach Randolph and Tony Allen have all moved on, which leaves Mike Conley and Marc Gasol as the two major remaining players from the Grizzlies squad we have known for the last few seasons. Chandler Parsons is the team’s third most important player at this point, but he has struggled mightily with injuries over the last few seasons. The Grizzlies agreed to a four-year, max-contract worth roughly $94 million. That’s a huge amount of money for a player that just had his worst NBA season and seems unlikely to ever recapture his peak form. On the upside, the Grizzlies have taken a couple of fliers on players like Ben McLemore and Tyreke Evans, hoping they can have a bounce back season. The Grizzlies usually find a way to outperform our preseason projections, but this year may be different. These isn’t much overall talent, JaMychal Green has yet to re-sign and the team is depending on several players with significant injuries or injury histories. With this in mind, it’s very possible Memphis misses the playoffs this upcoming season.

4th Place — Southwest Division

– Jesse Blancarte

TOP OF THE LIST

Top Offensive Player: Marc Gasol

Marc Gasol continues to be an excellent player to build around. Count Gasol and point guard Mike Conley as the foundation for this team. Assuming Gasol continues his excellent play from last year, he will continue to be the focal point of the Grizzlies’ offense. Last year, Gasol averaged a career-high in points (19.5) and added three-point range to his game. This was the first year Gasol added the long distance shot to his arsenal on offense and the change came just in time to help a team that failed to get significant contributions on the perimeter from forward Chandler Parsons. Add in a career-high in assists (4.6) and Gasol stands out as the center piece of the offense as he can score from the inside, from three and as a facilitator for his teammates.

Top Defensive Player: Marc Gasol

Tony Allen’s contributions on the defensive end will be missed. He never lit the league on fire with his shooting or scoring but he thrived on defense. In a recent interview, he revealed the origin of the “hustle and heart” and “grit and grid” ethos the franchise has thrived on the past few years (it’s an interesting story that involves former Grizzly Rudy Gay). With Allen gone, we can surely count Gasol as the key defensive player for the Grizzlies going forward (especially considering Gasol led the team in defensive win shares last season). Gasol is a surprisingly effective rim protector and will be counted on as a last line of defense whenever Memphis’ wing defenders lose track of their opponents. Gasol will need to stay in great shape (he just finished playing in the Eurobasket tournament) to stay mobile and keep up when opposing defenses drag him out to the perimeter on close outs and pick and roll action. Gasol may be getting up there in age, but he’s still one of the best defensive anchors in the league.

Top Playmaker: Mike Conley

Like Gasol, Mike Conley used last season to increase his offensive output and help push the team into the playoff picture. Conley upped his scoring average to a new career-high (20.5) — a huge five-point jump from the prior year. Not only did the team make the playoffs but Conley helped to vindicate the franchise after it re-signed the lead guard to a maximum extension, amounting to the largest contract in NBA history. With the team’s backup point guard situation up in the air, Conley’s play will be key if the Grizzlies are to be successful. Conley will have to be aggressive in creating shots for himself and his teammates since there are no other playmaking ball handlers that can be counted on for a variety of reasons – mostly health. With a strong handle and the ability to get to the rim, Conley is and will be largely responsible for creating easy scoring opportunities for his teammates this season.

Top Clutch Player: Mike Conley (Honorable Mention – Marc Gasol)

Count this category as a toss-up. Unsurprisingly, Conley and Gasol are the two easiest choices here. Both have virtually identical net ratings (+11.5 and +11.6, respectively) in clutch time, defined by nba.com as play in the last five minutes of a game within five points. Gasol has a strong ability to get his own basket in the post and can hit an open jumper anywhere on the floor. Although close, the nod goes to Conley as his usage percentage is much higher (35.3 to 24.5 percent) since he controls the ball more than anyone else on the team. Whether taking the shot himself or creating an open look for a teammate, Conley has the skill and experience to execute in high-pressure situations.

The Unheralded Player: JaMychal Green

Putting aside injury concerns (discussed below), the most pressing issue the team is currently facing is the contract status of restricted free-agent forward JaMychal Green. The team has been unable to sign the young big man to a multi-year deal up to this point. With the clock ticking to training camp, the chances of Green being signed to the one-year qualifying offer, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent next offseason, increases. The promotion of the versatile big man to the starting line-up helped to modernize the team’s offense last season. Green stepped in to compliment Gasol with sufficient outside shooting and athletic versatility. For a team that is trying to cement its lineup for the short and long term, this situation is concerning. Fans should hope that ownership finds a compromise that recognizes the young big man’s abilities and contributions before possibly losing him down the road.

Best New Addition: Ben McLemore

The Grizzlies have to deal with a lot of turnover. Many old stalwarts are gone and a new era of Grizzlies basketball begins. The signing of Ben McLemore is the most important new addition to help jumpstart this transition. Unfortunately, McLemore broke a toe in the offseason that projects to keep him sidelined for the first few weeks of the season. The team should keep high hopes that the change in scenery and a new, more stable enviornment, can help the young guard come closer to reaching his potential. McLemore has seen his minutes and productivity dip the last two years. If McLemore produces somewhere close to his full potential, he can quickly become the third most important player on a team looking for contributors up and down the roster.

– James Blancarte

WHO WE LIKE

1. Grizzlies Medical Staff

The franchise is in flux and pressure will be on the Grizzlies to keep the trove of injured and injury prone players healthy for the team to have a chance to make it back to the playoffs. Grizzlies’ fans have to hope and root for the team’s medical staff to effectively monitor and treat multiple players closely. The most important player in this regard is Chandler Parsons, who has been limited by severe knee injuries for several seasons. Add point guard Mario Chalmers (recovering from an Achilles tear) and wing Tyreke Evans, who has struggled with kneed injuries, to the list of players the Grizzlies’ medical staff will have to keep a close eye on. If even a few of these players can make a full recovery and stay relatively healthy throughout the upcoming season, the Grizzlies suddenly become a much more dangerous team in the Western Conference.

2. Coach David Fizdale

As mentioned, the team has to deal with a lot of ongoing injury concerns. Without reasonable assurances that the above players can be relied upon on a day to day basis, the pressure will be on Coach Fizdale to steer the team with a steady hand as players shuffle in and out of the line-up and the team likely struggles to find consistent contributors outside of Conley and Gasol. Fizdale endeared himself to the larger NBA community during last year’s playoffs when he complained about the team’s treatment by the referees. In frustration, Fizdale listed his grievances and punctuated the rant with the line, “Take that for data.” The Grizzlies eventually went down to the Spurs in six games but the coach gained additional recognition and further cemented the support of his players and Grizzlies fans.

3. Chandler Parsons

Chandler was ineffective last season after being signed by the team to be the third cog behind Gasol and Conley. The hope is that with sufficient time and rehabilitation, Parsons can be effective once again. After a poor outing last season, expectations are reasonably lower for the veteran forward. With so much cap space tied up in his contract, his comeback would be a nice boost for a team that is looking for all the help it can get on the wing. When healthy, Parsons is a versatile forward who can stretch the floor, facilitate the offense and guard both wings and some bigs in certain situations.

4. Tyreke Evans

Tyreke Evans has experienced varying degrees of success over the years. However, Evans struggled mightily last season with lingering knee issues. Evans was ultimately traded back to Sacramento, where he had spent his first five seasons in the NBA. Now going into his ninth season, Evans is looking to regain his peak form. While playing fewer minutes last year, Evan’s numbers, per 36 minutes, remained on par with his overall career arc. This gives some indication that if Evans can stay relatively healthy, he can still be an above average contributor on a team that sorely needs depth.

5. Mario Chalmers

Chalmers has never averaged more than 10 points a season and has never made the short list of the league’s best point guards. However, he should be lauded as a key contributor in the HEAT’s multiple title runs and two championships. Chalmers stuck around after the departure of LeBron James and continued to carve out his own success. Chalmers eventually joined the Grizzlies in the 2015-2016 season. Although he played as the back up to Conley, Chalmers effectively ran backup point and put up some of the best per-minute numbers of his career. Unfortunately, his season came to an end with an Achilles tear in December of 2015. Coach Fizdale and the front office both have made clear that they monitored his recovery and, when asked, Chalmers indicated this is why he went back to his previous team. Fizdale and Chalmers have history going back to their shared Miami HEAT days. With the mediocre play of Wade Baldwin and Andrew Harrison last year at the backup point, Grizzlies fans should be rooting for a full recovery for Chalmers.

– James Blancarte

SALARY CAP 101

The Grizzlies have stayed over the NBA’s $99.1 million salary cap, triggering a hard cap when they used most of their Mid-Level Exception (MLE) on Ben McLemore, Rade Zagorac and Dillon Brooks (along with their Bi-Annual Exception on Tyreke Evans). Memphis still has $1.4 million left in their MLE. The roster has 15 guaranteed players, not including restricted-free agent JaMychal Green – who is still negotiating with the team.

At almost $105 million in salary, the Grizzlies aren’t close to the $125.3 million hard cap, even if Green does return. Before November, Memphis needs to decide on 2018-19 options for Wade Baldwin and Jarell Martin. Next season, the franchise does not project to have any cap room, given their sizable investments in Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Chandler Parsons.

— Eric Pincus

STRENGTHS

Conley and Gasol are arguably in the peak of their respective primes. The two stalwarts share great chemistry and will rely on each other heavily this season. When healthy, these two are the foundation of the team, both on and off the court. The team has developed a reputation for hustle, defense and punishing teams with their post play. With Fizdale, the team will continue to shift to small ball play predicated on ball movement to keep up with the modern offensive trends in the NBA. While it’s not clear how far this team can go, with Gasol and Conley leading the charge, Memphis should have a shot of winning on most nights.

– James Blancarte

WEAKNESSES

Youth and injuries. Outside of the team’s big two, there is a shocking drop off when identifying the team’s third best player. Parsons has the talent to be this player but what version of Parsons comes back is unclear. McLemore can step into this role, as mentioned, but has to overcome his offseason injury and reach his potential – something that isn’t necessarily a given. With the injury bug hitting the above players, as well as Chalmers and Evans, the team’s success is heavily reliant on players that are currently injured or injury prone. Reliability and consistent production will likely be hard to come by for the Grizzlies this season.

– James Blancarte

THE BURNING QUESTION

Does the franchise continue to build around Gasol and Conley (both already in their 30s), or take preemptive action and look to rebuild the roster through a trade of one or both of their stars?

This is a tough question, especially for the fans who just witnessed the Grit and Grind era quietly come to a close with many familiar faces departing. As constructed, it’s hard to envision this team ever competing with the league’s top teams, such as the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers. Trading Conley and Gasol now could help accelerate a rebuilding effort, similar to what the Boston Celtics did with Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. The likelihood is the Grizzlies won’t trade their two best players, but it’s something that should at least be considered.

– James Blancarte

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