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Ranking the NBA’s Northwest Division

Ben Dowsett breaks down and ranks the teams in the Northwest Division.

Ben Dowsett

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In an offseason full of turmoil and plenty of notable player movement, the Northwest division may end up with the largest year-to-year turnover of any from a wins and losses standpoint. The Portland Trail Blazers were briefly considered a dark horse title contender six months ago, but were ravaged, in turn, by injuries and the departure of 4/5ths of their core. The Oklahoma City Thunder missed the playoffs last year, but will be among the favorites to win the West assuming better health. The Nuggets are an indecipherable mess, a talented group with a coaching improvement on the way but tarnished by an awful culture. The Utah Jazz and Minnesota Timberwolves both have done very little to their exciting cores over the summer, but both could look to make big leaps in their win totals.

It’s still somewhat early as we are still several months away from the start of next season. However, with the 2015 NBA Draft behind us and over two weeks into free agency, we can now look to see which teams have  gained the upper hand. Here’s a first pass at a bottom-to-top ranking of the division.

5. Denver Nuggets (Last Year: 30-52, 4th in Northwest)

In all honestly, when one begins to really break down each individual team in this division, figuring out who will finish last is much tougher than the other side of the coin. With so much turnover in Portland, bundles of youth and perennial injury risk on the roster in Minnesota and the rampant dysfunction in Denver, there are a number of unknown variables still left in the equation at the bottom of the division.

The Nuggets take cellar-dweller status for now, but they might as well simply just rank first for “most questions still to be answered.” There are best-case scenarios for this team that involve them not only well exceeding this prediction, but even challenging for a playoff spot. But they just require so much to go right that those best-case scenarios feel close to impossible. And on the other end of that spectrum, Denver’s worst-case situations could see them as one of the top contenders for next year’s first overall pick.

There are things to like on this roster. Danilo Gallinari will look to finally put a full season together for the first time since the 2009-10 campaign, and will be of real value if he can. Wilson Chandler is re-upped on a fair-ish deal. Guys like Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic could be in line for breakout years. Emmanuel Mudiay has likely been the most impressive rookie in summer play thus far and could make a positive contribution even as a first-year player.

But the other side of the ledger seems more crowded, unfortunately. Gallo is a nice player, but he’s only come within 10 games of the full 82 once in six seasons and is long past the point where trusting his health is a fool’s errand. Much of the rest of the roster is fine but not excellent, and Mudiay could win Rookie of the Year and still only be a marginal value add.

Worse yet, there may not have been an uglier culture in the NBA last year. Ty Lawson’s struggles off the court are notable and his behind-the-scenes stuff in the locker room might be worse. Even as a starting-caliber player on a fair deal, trading him might require packaging another asset. Kenneth Faried may have played a similar role in some of last season’s rampant unprofessionalism as well, depending who you ask, and is just a moderately useful player being paid far more than he’s worth. The Nuggets have upside if new coach Mike Malone can right the ship, but enough points in the other direction that they take the bottom spot for now.

4. Minnesota Timberwolves (Last Year: 16-66, 5th in Northwest)

The Wolves have several variables as well, but of a different sort. Health is the first and most prominent considering the fact that each of Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Martin and Shabazz Muhammad played less than 50 games last season, which partially explains how the Wolves ended up with the worst record in the NBA.

Youth development is the other major factor, one that could be the crux of the largest variance in the Wolves’ prospective win total. Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns are both prodigies, but are both extremely young. If one or both develops more quickly than expected and everyone else is healthy, this group could surprise a few people. Conversely, if Wiggins struggles with efficiency like he did at times last season and Towns isn’t ready to be a difference-maker at this level just yet, things could fall apart in a hurry.

Like Denver, there are a few too many reasons to be skeptical to put the Wolves any higher. Rubio has been a team doctor’s nightmare most of his career, their stars are still NBA babies and their depth really isn’t that strong. In a vicious West, they’ll still get ripped up regularly even if everything breaks the right way – which it probably won’t.

3. Portland Trail Blazers (Last Year: 51-31, 1st in Northwest)

Once again, a primer: Any of the three teams already listed could easily finish last in this division. Portland will be unrecognizable to fans who tuned out following their playoff loss to Memphis, with only Damian Lillard returning from a starting five that was among the league’s most seasoned and effective together. If the injury bug happened to bite Lillard in any sort of serious way, one has to imagine the tank brigade would be out in full force for the Blazers.

Assuming (and hoping) otherwise, though, they get the nod over Denver and Minnesota mainly due to Lillard and the presence of wiz coach Terry Stotts, a guy who has made a career thus far out of eking the very most out of the talent in front of him. Additions Moe Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu, Ed Davis, Gerald Henderson and Noah Vonleh are no great shakes, but all are capable NBA players on reasonable contracts. In addition, Vonleh has some real upside, which could begin to show through this year. Stotts will have them playing smart and efficient ball on both ends of the court.

The Blazers could be a nice story if they overachieve a bit, but to be clear, there’s a wide gap between these first three teams and the next two.

2. Utah Jazz (Last Year: 38-44, 3rd in Northwest)

The Jazz had one of the quietest offseasons of any team in the league, but still appear primed for a potentially large leap in wins. They were the league’s best defense and one of its seven to 10 best teams overall during the latter half of the 2014-15 season. They return their entire core, nearly all of whom, as under-25 guys, project to improve to some degree. They bring 2013-14 breakout sixth man Alec Burks, a guy who played exactly zero minutes during their strong run last year, back from injury as well.

Their major inflection point is at the 1-spot, along with the rate of progress from a couple guys. Dante Exum is at the crux of both these elements. It was just a single game, but he flashed an aggression and dominance in Utah Summer League that, if it were moderately sustainable against full-time NBA competition, could be a huge boon for a team with likely the league’s worst point guard production last year. Another second-year guy in Rodney Hood was extremely impressive both to close last season and over the summer, and could make the Jazz a legitimate nine-deep monster anchored by Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert.

The Jazz’s developmental rate defensively last season was at times spectacular under first-year coach Quin Snyder, who is universally beloved in Salt Lake City by both his players and fans alike. He’s stated repeatedly that offense is the tougher of the two elements to develop, however; if his sophomore season sees his team make similar leaps on this end as they did defensively last year, this team could get scary in a hurry. If they can catch a few breaks and see the right progress from their youngsters, they might even challenge our presumed division winner.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (Last Year: 45-37, 2nd in Northwest)

Not much surprise here. The Thunder only finished second in the division (and missed the playoffs) last year due to well-documented injuries to a couple of the league’s brightest stars. They’re heavy favorites to climb back to the top this year if they can avoid major injuries to their key players.

Some of their moves this summer have raised an eyebrow or two, particularly everything surrounding Enes Kanter, but this team simply has too much talent to fall short if they can keep Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka healthy. Billy Donovan might be able to shake some of the simplistic cobwebs off of Scott Brooks’ departing vanilla offense, and if Donovan can maintain Brooks’ defensive culture he’ll be in great shape. The Jazz could give them a run if everything breaks just right, but on balance it seems pretty tough to imagine anyone besides the Thunder winning this division if their big three can stay on the court.

Ben Dowsett is a Deputy Editor and in-depth basketball analyst based in Salt Lake City. He covers the Jazz on a credentialed basis for Basketball Insiders, and has previously appeared in the Sports Illustrated and TrueHoop Networks. He can be found on Twitter at @Ben_Dowsett.

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Reviewing the Nurkic Trade: Denver’s Perspective

The Denver Nuggets have been on a miraculous run this postseason, but that doesn’t mean that they’re infallible. Drew Maresca reviews the 2017 trade that sent Jusuf Nurkic from Denver to Portland.

Drew Maresca

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The Denver Nuggets are fresh off of a 114-106 win over the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, pulling within three wins of the franchise’s first trip to the NBA Finals. But what if I told you that the Nuggets’ roster could be even more talented by acting more deliberately in a trade from three years ago?

While Denver won on Tuesday night, they lost a nail bitter on Sunday – for which most of the blame has been pointed at a defensive breakdown by Nuggets’ center Mason Plumlee, who was procured in the aforementioned 2017 trade. What did it cost Denver, you ask? Just Jusuf Nurkic and a first-round pick.

Nurkic was a 2014-15 All-Rookie second team member. He played 139 games over 2.5 seasons in Denver, averaging 7.5 points and 5.9 rebounds in approximately 18 minutes per game. He showed serious promise, but Denver had numerous reasons to pursue a trade: he’d suffered a few relatively serious injuries early in his career (and he’s continued to be injury-prone in Portland), butted heads with head coach Michael Malone and – most importantly – the Nuggets stumbled on to Nikola Jokic.

The Nuggets eventually attempted a twin-tower strategy with both in the starting line-up, but that experiment was short-lived — with Jokic ultimately asking to move to the team’s second unit.

The Nuggets traded Nurkic to the Portland Trail Blazers in February 2017 (along with a first-round pick) in exchange for Plumlee, a second-round pick and cash considerations. Ironically, the first-round pick included in the deal became Justin Jackson, who was used to procure another center, Zach Collins – but more on that in a bit.

As of February 2017, Plumlee was considered the better player of the two. He was averaging a career-high 11 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists through 54 games – but it was clear that at 27, he’d already maximized his talent.

Conversely, Nurkic was only 23 at the time of the trade with significant, untapped upside. In his first few seasons with Portland, Nurkic averaged 15 points and 9.8 rebounds per game, while establishing himself as a rising star. As noted above, injuries have continued to be a problem. Nurkic suffered a compound fracture in his tibia and fibula in March 2019, forcing him to miss a majority of this current campaign. The COVID-19-related play stoppage in March gave Nurkic extra time to get his body right, and he returned to action in July inside the bubble.

And he did so with a vengeance. Nurkic demonstrated superior strength and footwork, and he flashed the dominance that Portland hoped he would develop, posting eight double-doubles in 18 contests. He averaged 17.6 points and 10.3 rebounds per game and while his play dipped a bit in the playoffs – partially due to a matchup with first-team All-NBA star Anthony Davis – he still managed 14.2 points and 10.4 rebounds in the five-game series. So it’s fair to say that Nurkic is still on his way toward stardom.

But the Nuggets are in the conference finals – so all’s well that ends well, right? Not so fast. To his credit, Plumlee is exactly who Denver expected him to be. He’s averaged 7.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game in three seasons with Denver since 2017 – but to be fair, Plumlee is asked to do less in Denver than he had in Portland. Still, it’s fairly obvious that they’re just not that comparable.

Plumlee is a good passer and an above-average defender that’ll compete hard and isn’t afraid to get dirty – but he has limitations. He doesn’t stretch the floor and he is a sub-par free throw shooter (53.5 percent in 2019-20). More importantly, he’s simply not a major offensive threat and his repertoire of moves is limited.

High-level takeaway: Defenses tend to game plan for opponents they view as major threats – Nurkic falls into this category. Other guys pack the stat sheet through putback attempts, open looks and single coverage alongside the guys for whom opposing defenses game plan – that’s a more appropriate description of Plumlee.

On to the wrench thrown in by Zach Collins’ involvement. Statistically, Collins is about as effective as Plumlee – he averaged 7 points and 6.3 rebounds through only 11 games in 2019-20 due to various injuries – and he possesses more upside. The 22-year-old is not as reliable as Plumlee but given his age and skill set, he’s a far better option as a support player playing off the bench. He stretches the floor (36.8 percent on three-point attempts in 2019-20), is an above-average free throw shooter (75 percent this season) and is a good defender. Looking past Nurkic for a moment, would the Nuggets prefer a 22-year-old center that stretches the floor and defends or a 30-year-old energy guy?

Regardless of your answer to that question, it’s hard to argue that Nurkic should have returned more than Plumlee, definitely so when you factor in the first-round pick Denver included. There is obviously more at play: Denver was probably considering trading Nurkic for some time before they acted – did they feel that they could increase his trade value prior to the trade deadline in 2016-17? Maybe. Further, Nurkic and his agent could have influenced the Nuggets’ decision at the 2017 deadline, threatening to stonewall Denver in negotiations.

Had Nurkic been more patient or the Nuggets acted sooner before it became abundantly clear that he was on the move, Denver’s roster could be even more stacked than it is now. Ultimately, the Nuggets have a plethora of talent and will be fine – while it appears that Nurkic found a long-term home in Portland, where he owns the paint offensively. Denver can’t be thrilled about assisting a division rival, but they’re still in an enviable position today and should be for years to come.

But despite that, this deal should go down as a cautionary tale – it’s not only the bottom feeders of the league who make missteps. Even the savviest of front offices overthink deals. Sometimes that works in their favor, and other times it does not.

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NBA Daily: They Guessed Wrong

Matt John reflects on some of the key decisions that were made last summer, and how their disappointing results hurt both team outlooks and players’ legacies.

Matt John

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It doesn’t sound possible, but did you know that the crazy NBA summer of 2019 was, in fact, over a year ago? Wildly, in any normal, non-pandemic season, it all would have been over three months ago and, usually, media days would be right around the corner, but not this time. The 2019-20 NBA season is slated to end sometime in early to mid-October, so the fact that the last NBA off-season was over a year ago hasn’t really dawned on anyone yet. Craziest of all, even though there will still be an offseason, there technically won’t be any summer.

Coronavirus has really messed up the NBA’s order. Of course, there are much worse horrors that COVID-19 has inflicted upon the world – but because of what it’s done to the NBA, let’s focus on that and go back to the summer of 2019. It felt like an eternity, but the Golden State Warriors’ three-year reign had finally reached its end. The Toronto Raptors’ victory over the tyranny that was the Hamptons Five – as battered as they were – made it feel like order had been restored to the NBA. There was more to it than that though.

Klay Thompson’s and Kevin Durant’s season-ending injuries, along with the latter skipping town to join Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn meant two things.

1. Golden State was down for the count
2. Brooklyn’s time wasn’t coming until next year.

A one-year window was open. Even if neither Golden State nor Brooklyn posed the same threat that the former did when it had Kevin Durant, those were two contenders out of commission. If there was a time to go all in, it was in 2019.

Milwaukee certainly seemed to go all in. For the most part.  Malcolm Brogdon’s departure seemed a little odd since he was arguably their best non-Giannis playmaker when they were in crunch time. Not to mention there was nothing really stopping the Bucks from keeping him except for money. Detractors will call out Milwaukee for electing to cheap out by not keeping Brogdon and hence, avoiding the luxury tax. However, there’s more to it than that.

Milwaukee thought it had enough with the core it had on its roster. Coming off the best season they had put up since the eighties, they believed the franchise built the right team to contend. There was an argument that keeping Brogdon may have been overkill with their guard depth – let’s not forget that Donte DiVincenzo did a solid job in Brogdon’s role as the backup facilitator. This would have been more defensible had it not been for Milwaukee picking the wrong guy to let go. That was the indefensible part- electing to keep Eric Bledsoe over Brogdon.

Bledsoe wasn’t necessarily a bad investment. No one’s complaining about an almost 15 point average on 47/34/79 splits or playing individual defense tight enough to get named on the All-Defensive second team. By all accounts, Bledsoe earns his keep. That is until the playoffs. Bledsoe’s postseason woes have been a weight ever since he first entered Milwaukee, and this postseason was more of the same.

Bledsoe’s numbers dwindled to just 11.7 points on 39/25/81 splits, and Milwaukee getting ousted in five games at the hands of Miami made his struggles stand out even more than it had ever been. Bledsoe may be the better athlete and the better defender, but Brogdon’s all-around offensive savvy and his only slight dropoff defensively from Brogdon would have made him a bit more reliable.

Milwaukee guessed wrong when they opted to extend Bledsoe before the postseason last year when they could have waited until that very time to evaluate who to keep around. Now they face a hell of a lot more questions than they did at the end of last season – questions that may have been avoided had they made the right choice.

Now they could have kept both of them, yes, but it’s not totally unreasonable to think that maybe their approach with the luxury tax would have worked and maybe they would still be in the postseason right now had they gone with the homegrown talent. And just maybe, there wouldn’t be nearly as much of this Greek Freak uncertainty.

The Houston Rockets can relate. They got bruised up by a team that everyone thought Houston had the edge on going into the series and then crushed by the Lakers. Now, Mike D’Antoni is gone. The full-time small ball experiment likely did not work out. Since the Rockets emptied most of their assets to bring in Russell Westbrook and Robert Covington, there may not be a route in which they can become better than they presently are.

The mistake wasn’t trading for Russell Westbrook. The mistake was trading Chris Paul.

To be fair, most everybody severely overestimated Chris Paul’s decline. He’s not among the best of the best anymore, but he’s still pretty darn close. He deserved his All-NBA second team selection as well as finishing No. 7 overall in MVP voting. OKC had no business being as good as they were this season, and Paul was the driving force as to why.

For all we know, the previously-assumed tension between Chris Paul and James Harden would have made its way onto the court no matter what. Even so, Houston’s biggest obstacle in the Bay Area had crumbled. If they had just stayed the course, maybe they’re still in the postseason too.

To their credit, none of this may have happened had it not been for the Kawhi Leonard decision. Had he chosen differently, the Thunder never blow it up, and Houston might have very well been the favorite in the Western Conference. Instead, the Rockets took a step back from being in the title discussion to dark horse. But at least they can take pride knowing that they weren’t expected to win it all – the Clippers can’t.

Seeing the Clippers fall well short expectations begs the question if they too got it wrong. The answer is, naturally: of course not. They may have paid a hefty price for Paul George, but the only way they were getting Kawhi Leonard – one of the best players of his generation – was if PG-13 came in the package. As lofty as it was, anyone would have done the same thing if they were in their shoes. They didn’t get it wrong. Kawhi did.

On paper, the Clippers had the most talented roster in the entire league. It seemed like they had every hole filled imaginable. Surrounding Leonard and George was three-point shooting, versatility, a productive second unit, an experienced coach – you name it. There was nothing stopping them from breaking the franchise’s long-lasting curse. Except themselves.

Something felt off about them. They alienated opponents. They alienated each other. At times, they played rather lackadaisically, like the title had already been signed, sealed, and delivered to them. The media all assumed they’d cut the malarkey and get their act together – but that moment never really came. They had their chances to put Denver away, but even if they had, after seeing their struggles to beat them – and to be fair Dallas too – would their day of destiny with the Lakers have really lived up to the hype?

Even if it was never in the cards, one can’t help but wonder what could have happened had Kawhi chosen to stay with the team he won his second title with.

Toronto was the most impressive team in this league this season. They still managed to stay at the top of the east in spite of losing an all-timer like Leonard. That team had every component of a winner except a superstar. They had the right culture for a championship team. Just not the right talent. The Clippers were the exact opposite. They had the right talent for a championship team but not the right culture. That’s why the Raptors walked away from the postseason feeling proud of themselves for playing to their full potential while the Clippers writhed in disappointment and angst over their future.

In the end, everyone mentioned here may ultimately blame what happened to their season on the extenuating circumstances from the pandemic. The Bucks’ chemistry never fully returned when the Bubble started. Contracting COVID and dealing with quad problems prevented Westbrook from reviving the MVP-type player he was before the hiatus. As troubling as the Clippers had played, the extra time they would have had to work things out in a normal season was taken away from them.

For all we know, next year will be a completely different story. The Rockets, Bucks, and Kawhi may ultimately have their faith rewarded for what they did in the summer of 2019 – but that will only be mere speculation until the trio can change the story.

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Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards

Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.

David Yapkowitz

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We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.

The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.

With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.

The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.

Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old

Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.

He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.

Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.

Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old

Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.

He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.

Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.

Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old

Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.

He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.

One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.

Honorable Mentions:
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old

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