Draft labels are extremely tricky, ask anybody. Even for the absolute best talent evaluators, pre-draft workouts and collegiate analysis can only approximate as-close-as-possible guesses. Sure, there were shoo-ins for stardom like LeBron James and Karl-Anthony Towns – that list is impossible to cover, obviously. But for as many Dwyane Wade-like future Hall of Fame draftees, there are just as many Andrew Wiggins-lite disappointments, Damian Lillard-ish rises and out-of-nowhere Nikola Jokic-esque surprises.
The point – and it’s not revolutionary but must be said given the instant-labeling job done by most, both fans and media alike – is that judging players after just one or two years in the NBA is mostly unfair business. But at Basketball Insiders, it’s time to turn the clock back to peek at 2015’s wild draft night. With nearly five full seasons between their life-changing selection and today’s stoppage, slightly more accurate observation can be done at long last.
So, we’re sorting the 2015 NBA Draft into three buckets:
A. The Hits
B. The Misses
C. The Sleepers
D. Jury Is Out
The idea is simple: Relative to their draft position, five years later, has the player reached, exceeded or fallen short of expectations? Which franchises found gems in the rough? How many wish they could turn back time?
Karl-Anthony Towns, No. 1
Yeah, Towns is a hit. The two-time All-Star averaged 26.5 points, 10.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists on 50.8 percent from the field in 2019-20, a career-best in the former category. As a court-stretching unicorn, Towns is nearly unguardable on the offensive end. Although the looming center hasn’t reached the second round of the postseason yet, it makes his pairing with the next name even more interesting…
D’Angelo Russell, No. 2
After bouncing around in Los Angeles (and playing second fiddle to the Kobe Bryant retirement tour), Russell landed in Brooklyn, ended the Nets’ playoff drought and reached his first-ever All-Star Game. Despite a strange season that resulted in being swapped for Kevin Durant and Andrew Wiggins within eight months, Russell has shown strong perseverance. The 24-year-old tallied 23.6 points and 6.2 rebounds per game before he was paired up with one of his best friends in the entire world.
Will the newly-formed duo take the Timberwolves to grand heights or are they just empty calories?
Kristaps Porzingis, No. 4
The Latvian’s bitter breakup with New York was less than ideal for all parties involved, but Porzingis has found himself right at home in Dallas. Teamed with wunderkind Luka Doncic, the seven-footer was slowly rounding back into form with the Mavericks after missing the entire season to rehab in 2018-19. With an All-Star appearance under his belt already, Porzingis, should he stay healthy, is poised to re-cement his status as a league-wide unicorn sooner rather than later.
Devin Booker, No. 13
Unsurprisingly, Booker is a close friend of both Towns and Russell – and remains similar in other ways too. The 23-year-old sharpshooter has panned out incredibly so far… except for those pesky team successes. But baby steps, right? Phoenix locked the guard down with a max contract in 2018, a deal he’s certainly made good on already. At 26.1 points and 6.6 assists per game, Booker is well on his way to becoming a mid-season staple – but now it’s up to him to get the Suns back in the playoff picture.
Montrezl Harrell, No. 32
The first and only non-lottery hit selection goes to… Montrezl Harrell, the Los Angeles Clippers’ bonafide glue guy and all-around menace. After struggling to make the court for Houston during his first two seasons, Harrell has been a growing revelation in each successive campaign. Last year, Harrell finished in third place for Sixth Man of the Year voting and got even better in 2019-20. Through 63 games, the bench spark plug averaged 18.6 points and 7.1 rebounds over just 27.8 minutes per contest. If not for Lou Williams, Harrell might have some NBA-awarded hardware by now.
Jahlil Okafor, No. 3
It’s difficult to truly penalize franchises for whiffing up top – just as it’d be equally unfair to trash Philadelphia for not drafting the international unknown in Porzingis instead here. Be that as it may, Okafor had his list of worries coming out of college – but the collect-em-all Trust The Process franchise missed a handful of times in that era. For a 76ers team that had lottery-jumping misfortune, they had little choice but to go with Okafor. And, in his first season, the center showed promise at 17.5 points and 7.1 rebounds per game.
Unfortunately, those numbers came without Joel Embiid on board and, quickly, Okafor fell out of favor and, eventually, out of Philadelphia entirely. Later, Okafor made a pitstop in Brooklyn before moving onto New Orleans. As of late, the 6-foot-10 scorer has done well to keep himself in the NBA, but any formerly–made progress has stalled out once more.
Mario Hezonja, No. 5
Although Hezonja once believed he could’ve gone No. 1 overall in another scenario, his NBA career has yet to really breakout. He was unable to find consistent time down in Orlando and only took a one-year stint with the Knicks after that. Now in Portland, Hezonja has stuck around – but how many more chances will he get? It’s unfair to call this a total miss, however, given the slew of tough picks following the Croatian’s selection: Willie Cauley-Stein, Emmanuel Mudiay, Stanley Johnson and…
Frank Kaminsky, No. 9
Hot off a run to the NCAA title game, Frank Kaminsky (and teammate Sam Dekker) found himself rising up draft boards fast in April of 2015. And why shouldn’t he have? At Wisconsin, the seven-footer averaged 18.8 points on 41.6 percent from three-point range. But Kaminsky’s professional career never really took off, stuck behind a slew of veterans in a middle-of-the-pack playoff chase. Made even worse in hindsight, the Celtics were allegedly so desperate to net Justise Winslow that they offered six draft picks (including four first-rounders) to Charlotte.
Cameron Payne, No. 14
It was one thing for the Thunder to take a point guard in the lottery with Russell Westbrook onboard already – but then they promptly buried him on the depth chart and traded him a year later. On a team with heavy postseason expectations, Payne still doesn’t make much sense years down the road. Payne last played nine games for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2018-19 and has since appeared in China and the G League.
Just before the country-wide shutdown, the guard notched 23.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 10.3 assists, 2.7 steals and 1.3 blocks over three games for the Texas Legends. Maybe this story isn’t over just yet…
Larry Nance Jr., No. 27
Richaun Holmes, No. 37
Josh Richardson, No. 40
Pat Connaughton, No. 41
Norman Powell, No. 46
The Jury Is Out
Kelly Oubre Jr., No. 15
Terry Rozier, No. 16
Bobby Portis, No. 22
This category was hand-tailored for our three recipients today: Kelly Oubre Jr., Terry Rozier and Bobby Portis. If the measurement for success is dependent on securing the bag, this trio has already done so. In fact, in 2019-20, the group combined to make $50.5 million. And, all things considered, they’re pretty important and reliable contributors for their franchises, albeit ones that find themselves outside the postseason picture during this stoppage.
Moreover, they all needed changes in scenery before truly blossoming too.
Oubre, never quite able to break from the three-headed monster of John Wall-Bradley Beal-Otto Porter Jr., had a career-year for Phoenix in 2019-20. Tallying 18.7 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.3 steals, Oubre genuinely looked like an intriguing piece alongside Deandre Ayton and the aforementioned Booker. Will the high-flying scorer continue to grow in his new role?
Elsewhere, Rozier – first stuck behind Isaiah Thomas and then Kyrie Irving – made waves when he publicly looked toward greener pastures last summer. As the Hornets’ starting point guard, Rozier has put up a solid line of 18 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.4 assists on 40.7 percent from three-point range – but he also got outshined by former second-round selection Devonte’ Graham for most of the year as well.
Portis, once most famous for busting Nikola Mirotic’s face in a scuffle, did well to earn a bruising, hard-working reputation in Chicago. The Bulls eventually dealt Portis in lieu of ponying up a huge contract, but the power forward has shown flashes of strong paint prowess. Earlier this season, the 25-year-old big man laughed at the idea of an early buyout in New York and it makes sense – Portis has always bet on himself. He’s seen a decrease in both minutes and games started with the tumultuous Knicks but he’s got gritty-role-player-on-a-championship-contender written all over him.
Drafting is hard.
That should go without saying, but given the landscape of instant judgment, it can’t be repeated enough. From overseas tape, maturity, positional fit, roster fit, growth and a million other factors, draft picks just don’t pan out at times. The Timberwolves and Lakers get credit for not getting reckless, but the 76ers shouldn’t be criticized for not doing so either. Just as the Knicks and Phil Jackson looked shrewd for the outside-the-box thinking on Porzingis, surely, then, Jordan would love to rewind time and take the Celtics’ mega-offer.
But the draft is a fickle beast and there’s always time to rewrite your narrative one final time.
NBA Standout Player Watch – Jan. 26
Basketball Insiders releases its first standout player watch of the year for the Eastern Conference. Tristan Tucker highlights some of the players that have shown out but are still vastly underrated.
This season, the All-Star game will not be played, though players will still be able to receive the honor and go down in the record books all the same. While players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant and many more are surefire All-Stars, Basketball Insiders wants to give credit to some of the players that are being overlooked around the league.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at Basketball Insiders’ first edition of its standout player watch from the Eastern Conference, in no particular order.
When the Detroit Pistons signed Grant, someone that averages 9.8 points across his career, to a three year, $60 million deal in the offseason, everyone around the NBA raised their eyebrows. It was then reported that the Denver Nuggets offered the same deal to try and keep Grant, but he took on a role that would see him be the feature offensive piece in Detroit.
That move has completely paid off and Grant is having a year that almost no one, other than himself, could have expected. The 6-foot-8 forward is averaging 24.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists and .9 steals per game, all career highs.
Grant is also having his most efficient season beyond the arc, shooting 38.2 percent from deep on 6.9 attempts per game, a fairly high number.
The Pistons are bad, there’s no way to sugarcoat that, but Grant alongside other pleasant surprises in Josh Jackson, Wayne Ellington and Saddiq Bey have made the team enjoyable to watch. Grant is playing like a legitimate superstar and should be named to the All-Star team this year, in whatever form that may take.
Over the last three seasons, LaVine has continued to improve and this season is no different. Despite averaging 23.6 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists on 45.3 percent shooting from the floor and 37.4 percent from deep across his Chicago Bulls career, LaVine has yet to make an All-Star team.
Perhaps that will all change this season, as LaVine is averaging career highs in points, rebounds, assists and blocks, plus close to a 50/40/90 split. The Bulls are decent this season, currently at 7-9, but for LaVine to be an All-Star lock, they’ll likely need to be in playoff position at the time of All-Star selections.
Brown appeared on Basketball Insiders’ week one MVP ladder, and that was no mistake. There’s a reason Brown was never included in any potential James Harden trade chatter, no matter how much the Houston Rockets may have wanted him – and that’s because he’s the real deal.
This season, Brown is the seventh-leading scorer in the league and is putting up an astounding 27.3 points, 3.5 assists and 1.5 steals, shooting 43 percent from deep on nearly seven attempts per game.
The Boston Celtics haven’t been at full strength for much of the season, without Jayson Tatum as he deals with a case of COVID-19, but Brown has his franchise among the frontrunners in the Eastern Conference nonetheless.
Randle had a season to forget last year after signing with the New York Knicks on a three-year, $62 million contract in the summer of 2019, as he took a dip in scoring and efficiency across the board from his breakout season the year before with the New Orleans Pelicans.
Something changed in the 6-foot-8 power forward over the offseason, as he is having a career year with the Knicks and has the team firmly in the playoff picture with an 8-10 record. The main difference in Randle’s game has been his shift in playstyle, transitioning to a playmaking big instead of someone that’s primarily an undersized low post threat.
Randle is averaging career highs in multiple statistical categories, up to 22.7 points, 11.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game.
Vucevic is criminally underrated year after year and this season is more of the same. One of the only reasons the Orlando Magic is able to remain competitive in the face of huge injuries to key players like Markelle Fultz, Jonathan Isaac and Al-Farouq Aminu is the play of Vucevic.
Vucevic has been giving it his all this season, putting up a career-high in points per game with 23.2 and has put in the work necessary to improve his long-range game. He’s shooting 42.6 percent from three on 6.4 attempts per game, by far and away the best deep shooting performance of his career.
While Vucevic has been named to an All-Star team before, his name is rarely mentioned when discussing the best bigs in the league, a narrative that he’s doing his all to change.
Domantas Sabonis/Malcolm Brogdon/Myles Turner
So many players have been playing stellar ball for the Indiana Pacers that it was impossible to narrow this selection down to just one.
Sabonis has downright played his way into the MVP conversation, notching a double-double in every single game he’s appeared in this season. Sabonis was an All-Star last year, and his play has continued to improve as he’s averaging 20.9 points, 12.9 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game.
Brogdon has also played his way into the MVP race, having been included in Basketball Reference’s ladder in the first month alongside Sabonis. It’s not hard to see why as he’s averaging what is by far a career-high 21.9 points with 7.1 assists on 39.5 percent shooting from deep on 7.1 attempts per game. Brogdon has also improved his on-ball defense, averaging 1.6 steals per game, a career-high.
Meanwhile, Turner may just be the most overlooked of them all, as he’s the heart and soul of this Indiana defense. Turner should be firmly in the lead for the Defensive Player of the Year award, as he’s holding opponents to shoot below league average and has averaged a whopping 4.1 blocks per game.
Honorable mentions: De’Andre Hunter, Gordon Hayward
It was hard to narrow this list down in the first place, with so many notable performances coming out of the Eastern Conference on a nightly basis. OG Anunoby and Chris Boucher are showing out for the Toronto Raptors and are helping that team back into the playoff picture, Shake Milton looks like one of the best guards in the conference while Tobias Harris is revitalizing his career under Philadelphia 76ers’ head coach Doc Rivers.
However, our honorable mentions this week are De’Andre Hunter and Gordon Hayward, both of whom are playing at a near All-Star level.
Hunter made the jump into a lead wing for the Atlanta Hawks after a promising first season and is up to 17.4 points per game, upping his efficiency across the board and fresh off a 33-point performance versus the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Charlotte Hornets’ signing of Hayward to a huge deal was widely panned across the league but the Hornets were always going to have to empty their pockets to get a player of his caliber. Hayward is averaging 24.1 points per game and is eerily close to a 50/40/90 shooting split. Hayward, alongside teammate Terry Rozier, have the Hornets in contention for a playoff spot, with both players playing at extremely high levels.
With so many outstanding players in the league, this list will be sure to change on a weekly basis. Be sure to check back at Basketball Insiders to see which players continue to shine!
What We Learned: Eastern Conference Week 4
What did we learn about the Eastern Conference this week? Jonathon Gryniewicz takes a look in the most recent edition of Basketball Insiders’ “What We Learned” series.
It’s not even a month into the NBA season, but the 2020-21 Eastern Conference has already looked super competitive, with 14 teams within six games of each other. There’s bound to be some separation in the coming weeks, don’t expect any team to go down easy.
But which have paced the East? Who’s flopped? Let’s take a look.
The New Look Brooklyn Nets
The Brooklyn Nets big three of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and the newly acquired James Harden recently played their first game together against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The back-and-forth game ended in a double-overtime, 147-135 Nets loss. The three of them had plenty of time on the court together and divvied up the scoring; Durant scored 38 points on 25 shots in 50 minutes; Irving 37 points on 28 shots in 37 minutes; and Harden 21 points on 14 shots in 51 minutes.
But, outside of the box score, what did we learn about this team from their first performance?
You never want to jump to conclusions, but it’s easy to see that their offense could be dominant. When those three were on the court together, Harden served as the de facto point guard while Irving and Durant took their turns in isolation situations. Of course, in such an iso-based offense, there wasn’t much player movement beyond the trio, but they are so good at taking their own man off the dribble they can always get a good shot. What should make them even harder to guard is the fact that they’re all prolific three-point shooters; two can space at the three point line, while the other can use that extra space to either score themselves or collapse the defense and kick it outside.
Of course, there’s some work to be done. Harden and Irving combined for nine of the team’s 16 turnovers, while each of the three took their fair share of shots maybe just a bit too early in the shot clock. Defensively, Brooklyn is a major work-in-progress. Their closing lineup of Harden, Durant, Irving, Jeff Green and Joe Harris would appear to be solid but doesn’t offer much in terms of switchability and consistent rim protection. Beyond that, there isn’t much to be excited about.
Depth could also be an issue. They recently added Norvel Pelle to compete with two-way rookie Reggie Perry for backup center minutes. The team may have to look into an addition on the wing, too; while they currently roster Bruce Brown, Landry Shamet and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, the three are young and, so far this season, have proven inconsistent at best. A veteran that could provide some bench stability should be the priority.
Kendrick Nunn is Emerging for the Miami HEAT
In recent days, Kendrick Nunn has played his best basketball in nearly a year.
The 2020 Rookie of the Year runner-up, Nunn struggled in the Orlando Bubble last season as he saw a continually diminished role in Miami’s run to the NBA Finals. He started this season on a similar note, as he averaged only 5.5 points and played in just six of the HEAT’s first 12 games.
But, with Jimmy Butler and other key players dealing with injury, Nunn has seen a resurgence. In Miami’s last six games, not only has he played heavy minutes, but Nunn has flourished to the tune of 17.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists. He’s also shot 37.8 percent from three and 50 percent from the floor.
Of course, there’s the question of the competition. Nunn’s success has come against the Nets aforementioned suspect defense, as well as the Detroit Pistons and Toronto Raptors, two teams that have struggled mightily to start the year. Still, the spark he’s shown should help him maintain a role going forward, even after Butler and the rest return to the court.
If he can maintain hold down a role, or at least a bit of that spark, Nunn could prove a massive boon for Miami, whose offense has been pretty mediocre in the early going.
The Indiana Pacers Injury Woes
Under new head coach Nate Bjorkgren, the Pacers’ 2020-21 season has seen a terrific start. Through 12 games, Indiana is 8-4 and have played a fun, up-tempo brand of basketball.
That said, they’ve had to deal with a lot on the injury front. After they netted Caris LeVert in the four-team blockbuster that sent Harden to Brooklyn, a mass was found on one of LeVert’s kidneys and he has since been ruled out indefinitely.
Myles Turner, meanwhile, just returned from a two-game absence due to an avulsion fracture in his right hand. In his absence, the Pacers’ defense just didn’t look the same, giving up 129 and 124 points to the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks, respectively. The team started the season without Jeremy Lamb and has since lost T.J. Warren to a foot injury that is expected to hold him out for most of the season as well.
No team can lose two starters and expect to continue playing at the same level. If they can’t get healthy, expect it to play a major role in their standing and playoff position at the end of the season.
It will be interesting to watch the East over the next month to see which teams can separate themselves. Be sure to check back for the next part of our “What We Learned” series as we continue to keep an eye on the NBA all season long.
Miami’s Struggles About More than One Player
Drew Maresca assesses the Miami HEAT’s early-season struggles and their statistical slide from the 2019-20 campaign.
The Miami HEAT appeared to successfully turn the corner on a quick rebuild, having advanced to the bubble’s 2020 NBA Finals. It looked as though Miami took a short cut even, rebounding from the LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh era incredibly quickly. Ultimately, they did so through smart drafting – including the selections of Bam Adebayo, Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro – plus, a little luck, like the signing of Jimmy Butler and smartly sticking with Duncan Robinson.
But despite the fact that they should have improved from last season, the tide may have turned again in South Beach.
Through 15 games, the HEAT are an underwhelming 6-9 with losses in each of their last two games. Miami is also scoring fewer points per game than last season – 109.3 versus 112 – while giving up more – 113.1 against 109.1.
Miami has played the 14th-toughest schedule in the NBA, and there are some embarrassing and noteworthy loses thus far. They lost by a resounding 47 points to the Milwaukee Bucks earlier this season, with extra harsh defeats of 20 points to the lowly Detroit Pistons and the mediocre Toronto Raptors.
What’s to blame for Miami’s woes? Unfortunately for the HEAT, it’s a number of things.
First of all, they need more from a few of their stars – and it starts at the very top. Jimmy Butler was Miami’s leading scorer in 2019-20, posting 19.9 points per game. But this season, Butler is scoring just 15.8 points per game on a sub-par 44.2 percent shooting. While Butler shot poorly from three-point range last season, too (24.4 percent), he hasn’t connected on a single three-pointer yet in 2020-21. This, coming from a guy who shot 34.7 percent from deep in 2018-19 and 35 percent in 2017-18.
But it’s not just his lack of scoring that’s hurting. Butler is also collecting fewer assists and rebounds as well. He’s averaging only 5.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game, down from 6.7 ad 6.0 last season.
However, Butler’s main struggle this season has nothing to do with any statistic or slump. Butler has missed seven straight games due to COVID-19 protocols. Although to go-scorer wasn’t playing particularly well prior to isolating from the team – scoring in single digits twice – the HEAT are always in better shape if their leader takes the floor with them.
It’s not just Butler either. Tyler Herro also needs to regain his bubble form, at least as far as shooting is concerned. After connecting on 38.9 percent on 5.4 three-point attempts in 2019-20, he’s sinking only 30.2 percent of his 5.3 three-point attempts per game this season.
While Herro is scoring more – 17.2 points per game this season – and doing so more efficiently, he’s doesn’t pose the same threat from deep this season. So while he’s sure to pick it up sooner than later, he must do so to put more pressure on opposing defense.
It’s fair to assume Herro will solve his long-distance shooting woes, but the fact that he’s also struggling from the free throw line is concerning because it speaks more to his form. Herro is still well above the league average, connecting on 76.5 percent of his attempts from the charity stripe, but he shot a scorching 87 percent on free throw attempts last season.
So what’s behind the slump? More importantly, which Herro can the HEAT count on for the remainder of 2020-21? As much as Herro is on track to grow into an incredible player, Miami needs his efficiency to return to last season’s form if they expect to compete. But like Butler, a major part of Herro’s struggles are off the court.
Herro is currently dealing with an injury, having missed the last five games with neck spasms. Coach Erik Spoelstra noted that giving the injured Herro so many minutes before his big layoff likely exacerbated his injuries.
“There’s no telling for sure if this is why Tyler missed these games,” Spoelstra told the South Florida SunSentinel. “But it definitely didn’t help that he had to play and play that many minutes. We didn’t have anybody else at that point. If he didn’t play, then we would have had seven.”
But the HEAT’s struggles are about more than any one player – and that’s a big part of what makes Miami, Miami.
Still, their team stats are equally puzzling, like that the Miami HEAT currently ranks 20th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating. In 2019-20, they were 7th in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating. Obviously, something isn’t translating from last year, but what is it that’s missing?
Firstly, the HEAT are only the 18th best three-point shooting in terms of percentage. Last season, Miami was 2nd by shooting 37.9 percent. Herro returning to his old self should help quite a bit, and Butler making at least a few threes should improve spacing, too.
But it’s not just three-point shooting as the HEAT ranked last in field goal attempts last season, tallying just 84.4 attempts per game. And while they’re last again this season, they’ve managed to average even fewer attempts per game (81.7) despite maintaining nearly all of their roster.
The HEAT are also last in offensive rebounding, which translates to fewer field goal attempts and fewer points. And while Miami was 29th in offensive rebounds last season, they’re corralling 2.1 fewer rebounds this season (6.4) than in 2019-20 (8.5). What’s more, Miami is now last in total rebounds with only 40.9 per game. A number that also represents a fairly significant change as the HEAT were 17th a season ago with 44.4 per game – whew!
Lastly, Miami is turning the ball over more often than nearly any other team – sorry, Chicago – in 2020-21. During the prior campaign, the HEAT were barely middle of the pack, turning the ball over 14.9 times per game, a mark that left them 18th-best in the league. This season, they’re 29th and turning the ball over 17.7 times per game – dead last in terms of turnovers per 100 possessions.
It’s not all bad news for the HEAT, though. Bam Adebayo looks great so far, posting 20.3 points, 8.9 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. Second-year stud Kendrick Nunn is averaging 21.5 points on 56 percent shooting through the past four games; while Duncan Robinson is still a flame thrower, shooting 44.4 percent on 8.4 three-point attempts per game.
The HEAT’s upside is still considerable, but it’s easy to wonder if they captured magic in a bottle last season.