After an underwhelming season that saw the team bounced from the first round of the postseason after posting a 44-38 regular season record, the Miami HEAT return in 2018 with largely the same group of guys they had last season.
However, in an Eastern Conference sans LeBron James, the HEAT are better off than they were last season. But how much better could the team fair in the 2018-19 season? Let’s take a look.
FIVE GUYS THINK…
The Miami HEAT had a rather inactive offseason. Miami did re-sign sharpshooter Wayne Ellington to a one-year $6,270,000 contract, which is a good deal the HEAT. However, the rest of the roster is largely the same as last season, meaning Miami projects to be a middle of the pack playoff contender in the Eastern Conference. Like the Los Angeles Clippers, the HEAT have talent at each position and solid depth, but they don’t have the high-end talent to keep pace with the NBA’s elite teams. There are some players who are returning from injury-plagued seasons who hopefully can make a bigger impact this season, such as Dion Waiters. And there are some promising young players who may show improvement this season, like Josh Richardson and Bam Adebayo. But unless Miami manages to land a trade for some more talent, this season is likely to end in an early postseason exit.
2nd Place – Southeast Division
– Jesse Blancarte
The HEAT made most of their significant moves during the summer of 2017 – there wasn’t a whole lot of flexibility left this summer. As such, they’ll enter the 2018-19 campaign with virtually an identical roster to the one that won 44 games and a Southeast Division crown last year. Will it be enough to carry them further than a relatively non-competitive round one loss? Well…maybe? This team has solid depth and mostly capable NBA players, but really lacks the star power to compete with some of the East’s true powers. One wonders whether Pat Riley will consider a sizable shakeup, including dealing guys like Goran Dragic or Hassan Whiteside (if his contract can even be moved realistically), to move this team out of the league’s middle and either toward true contention or the basement where they can rebuild properly.
2nd Place – Southeast Division
– Ben Dowsett
What a difference a season makes. In 2017, many were thankful the streaking HEAT didn’t make the playoffs. In 2018, the HEAT were the biggest disappointment out of all the East’s playoff teams. Because of their salary situation, combined with their seemingly limited ceiling, Miami has been written off. It’s fair to mention that Dion Waiters, Hassan Whiteside, and Rodney McGruder all were out for an extended period with injuries. Their return, combined with both Justise Winslow’s and Bam Adebayo’s potential, could see the HEAT could finish anywhere. The X-Factor is Whiteside. If he gets his act together, Miami could exceed expectations.
2nd Place – Southeast Division
– Matt John
For an NBA offseason that was full of movement, the HEAT stood pat with little turnover on the roster. Last season, they were one of the best defensive teams in the league and gave Philadelphia a nice run for its money in the playoffs. Goran Dragic is still the leader of this group and is easily the primary offensive weapon for Erik Spoelstra. As Bam Adebayo develops further in his second season, it will be intriguing to see where Hassan Whiteside fits into the equation…if at all. Josh Richardson is blossoming into a top defender on the wing and Dion Waiters will be back in action after missing the majority of last year with an injury. It’s going to be a close call in the bottom portion of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.
2nd Place – Southeast Division
– Spencer Davies
If there is one franchise in the East that’s going to likely do more with less, it’s going to be the Miami HEAT. This means they will be good enough to tease you into the playoffs, but not bad enough to yield a top draft pick. The HEAT continues to say they won’t blow this team up and that what they have internally is enough to compete, but the question is, will one of their young guys stay healthy enough to really pop? Looking in on Bam Adebayo, Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow – one of them could be exactly that “move to the next tier” player the HEAT desperately need. Its unlikely the HEAT are much more than the 7-8 seed in the East, that seems good enough for management, but as history has shown, 7-8 is a no-man’s land that usually costs franchise leaders their jobs.
2nd Place – Southeast Division
– Steve Kyler
TOP OF LIST
Top Offensive Player: Goran Dragic
Once again, Goran Dragic projects to be the best offensive option in Miami next season.
Making his first All-Star appearance, Dragic averaged 17.3 points per game to lead the HEAT last season while shooting 45 percent from the field and 37 percent from three. He also posted 4.1 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game.
Both his scoring and assist numbers dipped from the previous season, but Dragic, as the number one option on offense, should see benefits from a high usage percentage once again in 2018.
Top Defensive Player: Hassan Whiteside
Hassan Whiteside has gotten a bad rap at times, and for good reason. He often seems not focused or disinterested and, because of that, his play suffers.
However, when Whiteside is engaged he is Defensive Player of the Year material.
When he is putting in the effort, Whiteside has shown the dominant force he can be defensively and on the glass. Back in 2015, his second season with Miami, Whiteside averaged 11.8 rebounds and a ridiculous 3.7 blocks per game. While those numbers have dipped in the past two seasons, the ability is still there. If Spoelstra and Co. can capitalize on that ability, it could go a long way for both Whiteside and the HEAT.
Top Playmaker: Goran Dragic
His assist numbers were down last season, but Dragic still managed to lead the HEAT in the category for the third consecutive year. He is a good bet to do it again next season as well.
More importantly, Dragic is comfortable with the ball in his hands and can make a play when his team needs it; whether he drives to the basket for the layup or kicks the ball out for the open shot, Dragic has a good sense of awareness and can quickly figure out the best play for the team given the situation.
Top Clutch Player: James Johnson
James Johnson probably isn’t who you thought would be here. Dwyane Wade could have easily fit the profile but, while he is still undecided on playing next season, Johnson takes the spot.
The NBA defines clutch time as the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime. Across 23 games last season, Johnson took 47 shots in the clutch and excelled in the moment. Johnson sported a 53.2 percent field goal percentage in the clutch, hitting 25 of those 47 shots while making seven of 16 three-point attempts, good for a 43.8 percentage, as well.
Johnson also assisted on 17 clutch field goals, highest among HEAT players last season.
The Unheralded Player: Wayne Ellington
Wayne Ellington shot 39.2 percent from three-point range last season, good for 13th among players that took more than 400 attempts (Ellington had 579 attempts on the season).
As a three-point specialist that can post at least moderate scoring numbers – 11.2 points per game last season – Ellington’s skillset is as valuable as it has ever been in the NBA. Ellington, however, found slim pickings on the free agent market and ultimately returned to Miami on a one-year deal.
Despite the surprising lack of interest, Ellington will play a vital role for Miami, opening things up inside for Whiteside and second-year player Bam Adebayo while making things easier on Dragic and Josh Richardson as well.
Best New Addition: No One
While Miami retained some of their own free agents, the front office made no new additions this offseason. The team, for the second time in three seasons, made zero selections on draft night.
– Shane Rhodes
WHO WE LIKE
1. Goran Dragic
Dragic will enter his age-31 season as (probably) Miami’s best player. The guard is almost a lock to lead the team in scoring for the third straight season and he is currently the only All-Star on the roster.
While the HEAT failed to add anyone of note this offseason, projected improvement from the likes of Adebayo and others should provide a slight boost to his numbers as well.
2. Bam Adebayo
Adebayo seemed like a questionable pick by the HEAT in 2017, but after some impressive performances, he seems primed to take the next step in year two.
Adebayo averaged 6.9 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game last season. However, his athletic ability should allow him to, eventually, surpass those stats and be dominant in the open floor. Adebayo is already a capable defender and with his length (7-foot-1 wingspan), there is certainly room for improvement; he is already able to switch onto and keep smaller players in front of him.
At just 20-years-old, Adebayo has plenty of time to grow his game and Miami will give him all the time in the world to do so.
3. Josh Richardson
You could make the argument that Josh Richardson is Miami’s most complete player.
While he isn’t as good as Dragic on offense, Richardson is still plenty good on that end; he averaged 12.9 points per game last season while shooting 37.8 percent from three. While he isn’t a number one option he is certainly capable.
Defensively, Richardson is the HEAT’s best one-on-one defender and finished the season tied for 11th in total steals with 121. Richardson also posted 3.5 defensive win shares last season, which was tops in Miami and 23rd in the NBA.
4. Erik Spoelstra
Erik Spoelstra, as one of the best coaches in the NBA, is almost a must have on the list of HEAT highlights.
Spoelstra has proved season after season that he is a driving force behind Miami’s sustained success post-James. In two of the past three seasons he has managed a less than ideal roster to the postseason, and there isn’t much to suggest that he won’t do it again next season.
– Shane Rhodes
Every year the NBA moves closer and closer to truly “positionless” basketball, and it appears as if the HEAT have truly embraced the trend.
Miami has a number of players that can play at multiple spots on the flor – Richardson Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk just to name a few. This positional versatility is key in the modern NBA and it allows the HEAT to create and use certain matchups to their advantage.
The ability to play guys at multiple positions also deepens the roster and allows Spoelstra more flexibility when it comes to his game plan.
– Shane Rhodes
As much depth as they have, the HEAT are lacking in terms of elite talent. Dragic, their best player, isn’t the best player on a championship-caliber team. Whiteside, while he can be dominant at times, doesn’t play with enough consistency to be a major factor for a playoff team.
Adebayo, Richardson and others should continue to improve while the return of Dion Waiters should boost the offense. However, it’s hard to see Miami improving to a point where they truly challenge the top teams of the Eastern Conference.
Miami, as constructed, is a playoff team. That is definitely a good thing, but this team isn’t necessarily a true contender.
– Shane Rhodes
THE BURNING QUESTION
How High Can the HEAT Climb in the East?
Assuming health, the HEAT are in prime position to take advantage of a top-heavy Eastern Conference.
Outside of the Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors, Philadelphia 76ers and the Indiana Pacers, the Eastern Conference is an even playing field. While some teams may have slight advantages over one another, no team is truly greater than all the others by a significant margin. Down the stretch, as many as eight teams could be vying for those last four playoff spots.
Miami finished last season as the sixth seed and, as they returned most of the same roster, a similar finish seems likely this season. With the Cavaliers expected to regress following the departure of James for Los Angeles, they HEAT could even find themselves as the fifth seed if things break right for them.
– Shane Rhodes
NBA Daily: G League Guards Showing They Belong
Jordan Hicks spoke with NBA hopefuls Trey Lewis and Isaiah Cousins about their current games, playing in the G League and more.
The Utah Jazz currently have three players out due to injury – all three point guards, coincidentally – so one might say they are a little shorthanded. Because of this, both of their two-way players – Tyler Cavanaugh and Naz Mitrou-Long – have been called up to travel with the team. Unfortunately for Utah’s G League affiliate, the Salt Lake City Stars, they are left short-handed.
Add this to the fact that their first overall draft pick – and arguably their most important player, Willie Reed – is done for the season.
Things like this aren’t uncommon for the G League. In essence, that is primarily why it is there. As a developmental league for the NBA, it is used to both groom young talent, as well as have players readily available when needed (for teams lucky enough to have a program in their area).
In recent years, the SLC Stars have helped groom current Jazz rotation players Georges Niang and Royce O’Neale.
In a league that is growing more and more competitive with every game, every advantage a team can get is clearly a plus. Therefore, having the Stars so close has definitely been a huge positive for the Jazz.
Because a couple of heavy contributors are missing games, guys who are typically important role-players need to step up and be the key guys for the team.
Basketball Insiders had the chance to catch up with two of their young guards – Isaiah Cousins and Trey Lewis – after a recent home loss to fellow G League team the Stockton Kings (affiliate to the Sacramento Kings). In a close game where the Stars were slightly outmatched, these players stepped up in a big way and almost led the Stars to an unlikely come-from-behind victory.
Isaiah Cousins is having a career year with the Stars. His third year in the G League – and second with the Stars – Cousins is averaging 12.7 points, 6.4 assists and 4.6 rebounds a night. He’s currently second in the league in assist to turnover ratio at 3.27.
“Making the right reads and [not trying] to force anything,” Cousins told Basketball Insiders. “Whatever the scouting report is, each team has a different defensive scheme each game, so I look at the scouting report and see what they are going to do.”
Isaiah alluded to the fact that preparation is what helps him take care of the ball so well. In a league where taking care of the ball is essential to winning games, solid point guard play is a must. Cousins’ development in that area goes hand-in-hand with his ability to someday make an NBA roster.
“This is my third year in the G League so I’m experiencing and understanding the game now,” Cousins said.
When asked what position Cousins sees himself playing in the NBA, he noted his versatility.
“I think I’m a point guard, but I can play multiple positions and I can guard multiple positions,” Cousins said. “I do a little bit on-ball and off-ball. Basically, wherever a job is open, I’ll take it.”
Trey Lewis has been instrumental to the Stars’ winning record coming off the bench. Averaging 11.6 points and 2.3 assists, the team relies on his scoring and playmaking abilities to pull-ahead.
Although he isn’t in the starting lineup, Lewis finds himself closing out many games, thanks in part to his clutch shotmaking. Just over two weeks ago Lewis hit a big, go-ahead three-pointer with just seconds left to seal a home win. On the season – in which Lewis has only participated in 13 games due to an early-season ankle injury – Trey has already dropped 20+ points on four occasions.
Lewis played for a handful of teams during his collegiate years, ultimately ending up on Louisville with current Jazz star Donovan Mitchell. Lewis and Mitchell are now playing basketball for the same organization and living in the same city. “[Mitchell] is somebody who I talk to on a daily basis. We push each other, we motivate each other, and we support each other so it’s been great.”
Lewis garnered the essential skill of shooting the deep ball in college. While playing for Cleveland State in the Horizon League, he led the conference in threes made, knocking them in at a 42.3 percent rate.
After playing overseas in Germany for two seasons where he was a two-time All-Star in the BBL, Germany’s top basketball league, Lewis came back to the states.
“My goal since a little child has always been to play in the NBA,” said Lewis when asked why he came to the G League. “I feel like I had two great seasons overseas and felt like this was the next step to get to where I want to go.”
As the NBA continues its move to a heavy three-point shooting league, players are finding they need to adapt in this sink-or-swim situation. Players that can’t shoot the deep-ball – at least at a respectable mark – need to hold elite skills in other areas.
Luckily for Lewis, three-point shooting has always been a strength for him.
Basketball Insiders asked him where he gets his confidence from behind the arc.
“Just hard work; my regimen every day, sticking to my routine, getting my reps, and that builds confidence,” Lewis said. “I know I can hit those shots in needed situations.”
The window has opened for NBA teams to sign 10-day contracts. Whether they eventually end up with the Utah Jazz or with an entirely different franchise, it doesn’t matter. Cousins and Lewis will continue to grind so they can have their shot at a spot in the league. But for now, they will continue to work for their current team and help the Stars try and lift the G League championship trophy at the end of the season.
NBA Daily: Potential 10-Day Contract Players
Basketball Insiders takes a look at a few players who could be prime candidates for 10-day contracts.
January 5 was an important deadline in the NBA in that it marked the first day teams can begin signing players to 10-day contracts.
Usually reserved for younger, unproven talent looking to get their first shot in the NBA, recently NBA veterans have started going the 10-day route to refresh their careers and get back in the league. For example, Corey Brewer just recently signed a 10-day contract with the Philadelphia 76ers.
These contracts are very beneficial for teams in that there’s essentially no risk, and the potential for a high reward. It’s a relatively cheap tryout for teams to get a quick look at players who can potentially be helpful. Best case scenario, they end up finding a solid contributor. If not, then the player is no longer with them after 10 days.
Here’s a look at a few players who could be candidates for a 10-day contract.
1. Willie Reed
The veteran big man has had his taste of the NBA. He began last season as the Los Angeles Clippers’ primary backup to DeAndre Jordan. With the emergence of other players, however, his playing time decreased and he was ultimately traded to Detroit in the Blake Griffin trade.
The Pistons then shipped him off to the Chicago Bulls for Jameer Nelson, and the Bulls proceeded to cut him. He ended up being the first overall pick of the Salt Lake City Stars of the G League.
This season with the Stars, he’s been one of the best big men in the G League. Reed has put up 20.1 points per game on 66.5 percent shooting from the field, 11.3 rebounds and 1.8 blocks. He’s still a quality rotation player and could help a playoff team in need of some size off the bench.
2. John Jenkins
Another NBA veteran, Jenkins developed a reputation as a sharpshooter during his early years in the league, but didn’t do much else. His last appearance in the NBA was last season when he was brought to training camp by the Atlanta Hawks.
He ended up being one of the Hawks’ final cuts before the end of camp, and he subsequently chose to play overseas. He returned stateside this season, where he joined the Westchester Knicks, the New York Knicks’ G League affiliate.
Jenkins has had a very strong season thus far, putting up 24.8 points per game on 47.2 percent shooting, 42.8 percent from the three-point line, 3.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists. Perhaps the biggest changes in his game have been his playmaking ability and his development into a more versatile scorer. Any team in need of some bench scoring should give him a look.
3. Anthony Bennett
Keeping with the trend of NBA veterans using 10-day contracts to get back to the league, the former No.1 overall pick in the 2013 draft has begun to put people on notice this season.
Bennett last saw NBA minutes two season ago with the Brooklyn Nets. He wasn’t that bad during his stint in Brooklyn, but the Nets cut him almost halfway through the 2016-17 season. Aside from a brief stop overseas, Bennett has been playing in the G League.
This season with the Agua Caliente Clippers, Bennett has looked like he’s ready for another shot in the NBA. He’s been averaging a modest 13.0 points per game on 54 percent shooting from the field. One of the biggest additions to his game though has been his expanded shooting range. He’s knocking down 43.6 percent of this 5.1 three-point attempts. He’s worth another look for a team in need of a stretch big man.
4. Bruno Caboclo
Another player with NBA experience, it’s probably not fair to call Caboclo a veteran seeing that he rarely saw playing time in the league. When he was drafted by the Toronto Raptors, his selection caused quite a bit of confusion, leading to Fran Fraschilla’s now famous quote of him being, “two years away from being two years away.”
Caboclo toiled on the Raptors’ bench for about four years before being traded to the Sacramento Kings. He finally was able to see some minutes with the Kings, but still didn’t show much. The Houston Rockets invited him to training camp but ultimately cut him.
Caboclo joined the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, the Rockets G League affiliate, and has since been showing that he may very well be worth a 10-day contract. He’s averaging 16 points per game on 51 percent shooting from the field, 42.5 percent from downtown, 7.2 rebounds and 2.9 blocks. When he was drafted, the expectation was he’d develop into a 3&D wing but that didn’t happen. He’s looking much closer to that now. For a team in need of a wing defender who can shoot from distance, he’s worth a look.
Again, 10-day contracts have become a very valuable and inexpensive way for NBA teams to try out potential contributors. If the player pans out, then you have a relatively cheap guy in the rotation. If they don’t, you cut your losses after 10 days. It should be interesting to see if these vets are able to parlay their G League success into a path back to the NBA.
NBA Daily: Capela’s Injury is a Massive Setback for Houston
Clint Capela’s thumb injury couldn’t have come at a worse time. Spencer Davies looks at the massive loss, who may get opportunities and what moves the Houston Rockets could make in response.
James Harden has a real challenge on his hands.
The Houston Rockets’ remarkable stretch from mid-December to the New Year behind the reigning MVP helped put them back in the middle of the playoff picture.
But he had a right-hand man—the same right-hand man who has emerged as a dominant two-way interior presence over the last three years under Mike D’Antoni—and that is Clint Capela.
Friday afternoon, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Capela would be out for at least the next month with ligament damage in his right thumb. There’s a chance that the 24-year-old big man could get a second opinion from a hand specialist following the MRI he took Monday.
Before sustaining the injury in Orlando, Capela was having a career season with the Rockets on the offensive end, significantly up-ticking his previous year averages to an impressive 17.6 points and 12.6 rebounds in over 34 minutes per game.
At the bottom of the barrel in defensive rebounding (and 29th in total rebounds per game), Houston already struggles on the glass as it is. However, they are doing a solid job of preventing their opponents from crashing the boards. Taking Capela out of the equation hurts because of his fundamental ability.
According to NBA.com, the Rockets rebound the ball as a team 89.9 percent of the time when Capela boxes out under the basket. He averages six of them per game and the vast majority of those are coming on the defensive end. It’s a simple part of the game, yet such an important aspect for a group that struggles in that area.
With Capela sidelined, Houston loses its rim protector. While it may be true that he’s not having as much success as last year defending in the paint, he is one of only four players in the league seeing at least seven attempts per game within five feet or less. More importantly—anywhere on the floor—the Swiss center is a top five shot contester among all of his peers.
Offensively speaking, Harden might be the most disappointed. He and Capela have developed an incredibly impressive two-man game through the Beard’s ability to finish at the rim.
Using the pick-and-roll to their advantage, the opposing big often chooses to help his man cover Harden, leaving Capela there for the easy high-handoff. It’s a play this duo has literally executed at will, and it’s been made deadly over the last few seasons.
Couple that with the athleticism and precision both have—few teams stand a chance at stopping it. And, back to the battle of the boards, Capela pulls down five offensive rebounds per game and provides second chance opportunities consistently.
If you don’t get the picture, we’ll leave it at this—the Rockets have to do something to keep up in a crowded Western Conference. The postseason hunt cannot solely rest on the shoulders of Harden. He has accomplished unfathomable feats in his career and was the NBA’s 2017-18 Most Valuable Player, but this is another type of challenge.
Houston’s players are dropping like flies. Sure, Chris Paul is on the mend and likely to return soon, and the same could be said of Eric Gordon, but there is little depth in the frontcourt . They’re down to Nene, Marquese Chriss and Isaiah Hartenstein as men in the middle. The rest are versatile forwards with the ability to play multiple positions, but not the one they need desperately at the moment.
We all know what Nene is capable of. That said, he’s not going to play 34 minutes per night at his age. In fact, the veteran has only eclipsed the 20-minute mark four times total in the last two seasons. There’s no doubt that he’ll give Houston a solid boost in spurts, but that’s likely not sustainable throughout the entirety of a game.
This writer is curious to see what Chriss does with the opportunity in front of him. It is fair to say that his athletic ability matches, or even supersedes, Capela’s, so the alley-oops will be there for him. However, these important questions remained unanswered: Can he screen? Can he rebound? Can he take the challenge?
Chriss was a top 10 draft pick not even three years ago. There’s a ton of potential that can be tapped into here. Unfortunately for the Rockets, they’re going to need to see growth and development quickly with little leeway for mistakes. They probably can’t depend on a raw 21-year-old prospect to steadily produce the way Capela has.
Hartenstein offers more size than both of those two and has played in 22 games this season. Still, he has only appeared in one contest since December 3. Hartenstein has taken advantage of his floor time, but the sample size is extremely small. Again, not nearly enough to fill the Capela void.
There are a few names out there that Houston general manager Daryl Morey could pursue.
Purely out of speculation, Bulls center Robin Lopez might be a good fit for a veteran squad and the organization is reportedly refusing to negotiate a buyout, so that may be worth paying attention to.
Hawks big man Dewayne Dedmon has quietly put together two impressive seasons in Atlanta. He’s a consistent player who fights for rebounds and gives a solid effort on the defensive end. And an extra attractive quality for D’Antoni—his expanded shooting range. John Collins has stated his own case for extra playing time with stellar play, so Dedmon probably won’t fit into the plans too much longer.
Tristan Thompson is giving his all with the Cleveland Cavaliers. He just returned from a foot injury and is getting back to the pre-injury version of himself. The 27-year-old is matching his career-high in points per game and is grabbing a career-best 11.2 rebounds per game to boot.
Like Capela, he is a monster on the offensive glass and excels at the fundamentals of the game with pick-and-roll situations and box outs. The only drawback to Thompson is his hefty, fully guaranteed salary, but he’s only on that deal for this year and the next.
With Cleveland looking to take on “bad” contracts with future assets attached, the Rockets should most definitely consider moving Brandon Knight or some other package along with a pick or two.
This is just a matter of spitballing a few names that might fit the bill for Houston. Heck, even if it’s a minor depth move, going out and getting an underutilized player like Skal Labissiere in Sacramento would make a difference to ensure the others aren’t winding themselves down with a huge increase in playing time.
Whatever the Rockets decide to do, the road to the playoffs has become a whole lot bumpier. Harden is going to have his work cut out for him LeBron James style a la 2017-18. We’re all anxious to see how he responds to such a challenge.
The past is the past—and CP3 was incredible for Houston last postseason—but it sure would be nice to have Montrezl Harrell around now, wouldn’t it?