Quarantine and stay-at-home orders look no closer to ending than they did a week ago, so Basketball Insiders is back with more draft-ready analysis. With the criteria laid out by Matt John on Monday, we’ve moved from entire drafts to the individual picks.
The picks will be sorted into the same four categories too: The hits, misses, middle of the road or role players. Did a player fall out of the league after a few years? Are they a star? Or are they at their ceiling already?
We’ve got a decade’s worth of drama to turn toward, so here’s where all the No. 2 overall picks fall.
Ja Morant – Memphis Grizzlies – 2019
It’s safe to reason, somehow, through just 60-or-so games, that Ja Morant is a hit.
Everybody was mesmerized by Zion Williamson’s delayed debut, but Morant is the one that likely would’ve taken home Rookie of the Year honors. Everybody wants to talk about how difficult it is to make the postseason in the Western Conference – but the 20-year-old rookie point guard had them there. He dropped 30 points on Brooklyn, a triple-double at Washington and racked up 14 assists against Los Angeles.
Morant’s 17.6 points and 6.9 assists per game lead Memphis, and his electric brand of athletic playmaking aren’t going anywhere but to multiple All-Star Games. Already, the former Murray State standout is going to make future voting competitions even more complicated – between him, De’Aaron Fox and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the guard position out west is in excellent hands. Anyway, we ask: Is it possible to almost jump over a future Hall of Famer and not be considered a hit? Just asking for a friend.
Brandon Ingram – Los Angeles Lakers – 2016
Well, Ingram wasn’t the biggest of hits in Los Angeles – but, better late than never, right?
After featuring in the major blockbuster for Anthony Davis, Ingram has taken his game to another level. Freed to experiment and grow, the 6-foot-7 scorer took a whopping six points forward in his per-game points average (24.3) and has reached career-highs in rebounds (6.3) and assists (4.3) too. By no means was Ingram a slouch in Los Angeles, but the now All-Star-worthy cornerstone has taken steps too large to place by the wayside.
Crazier, if he has room to evolve even further, Ingram, Williamson and Lonzo Ball will likely form the next great NBA-wide trio.
Perhaps, then, all a player needs is a change of scenery…
D’Angelo Russell – Los Angeles Lakers – 2015
But if that’s the case, won’t somebody please save D’Angelo Russell from his coast-to-coast pilgrimages?
And yet, none of that happened in Los Angeles. The Kobe Retirement Tour. The overplayed incident with Nick Young. Dumped to the Nets so that the Lakers could take a new shiny point guard in Lonzo Ball. Russell found himself at home with Brooklyn as the king of the forgotten misfits and then helped to break their lingering playoff drought. But when the opportunity to upgrade to Kyrie Irving came, he went out to Golden State. And, after just half a season there, Russell was dealt for Andrew Wiggins.
Getting traded so often and early in your career tends to come with a negative connotation – for Russell, it is anything but. Russell has notched back-to-back 20-plus point campaigns and becomes must-watch television when he’s hot from downtown. Now paired with a close buddy in Karl-Anthony Towns (the No.1 pick in 2015), the test is truly afoot for Russell. Although he wasn’t a hit until he left Los Angeles, much like the aforementioned Ingram, doesn’t that say more about the Lakers than it does the players?
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – Charlotte Bobcats – 2012
Looking back, it’s hard to believe this trio of misses went No. 2 overall – but general managers weren’t blessed with the deepest of opportunities here either.
But Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, unlike the other two here, is at least in the league still. With Charlotte, back before a rebrand to the original brand, Kidd-Gilchrist survived based on his defensive ceiling, always a philosophical question of well-if-he-figures-this-out type-isms. And even though he struggled to stay healthy, the forward managed to earn a four-year extension worth $52 million in 2015.
Renowned for his funky-looking release, the once-National Champion has played in just 21 games between Charlotte and Dallas this season. Taken ahead of Bradley Beal (No. 3), who would have paired excellently with Kemba Walker, only adds extra salt to the wound.
Derrick Williams – Minnesota Timberwolves – 2011
From the opening number, Derrick Williams was going to cause headaches for whoever drafted him. Naturally, Williams viewed himself as a small forward, an athlete that could go toe-to-toe with LeBron James – no, seriously, that was a real thing – but the tweener was most suited for the power forward position at the pro-level.
The only problem was that he largely lacked the toolkit to succeed there either. During his two collegiate seasons at Arizona, Williams soared up draft boards thanks to his ability to finish alley-oops and slash through the paint at ease. But in the NBA, recreating that magic against bigger, stronger and faster adults proved to be far more difficult. Williams averaged 12 points in his second season with the Timberwolves, but then the parade of franchises began: Sacramento, New York, Miami, Cleveland and Los Angeles, where he last played for the Lakers back in 2017-18.
These days, Williams is a heavily-featured option for the world-renowned Fenerbahce franchise – but he’ll long be remembered as a draft miss over here.
In a weak draft, however, after Irving, it’s hard to fault Minnesota for going for the highest ceiling option at the time.
Hasheem Thabeet – Memphis Grizzlies – 2009
When you talk about busts, Thabeet’s name would almost certainly pop up on a Family Feud-style board of the most recognizable names. As a rookie, Thabeet only played 13 minutes per game and averaged 3.1 points and 3.6 rebounds. And it never got any better from there. Considering that James Harden went immediately after doesn’t make that pill easier to swallow either.
The 7-foot-3 center lasted just five seasons in the NBA before splitting for Japan. Last seen in the G League during the 2019-20 campaign, Thabeet is still around – but his bust status will likely last forever.
The Middle of the Road
Marvin Bagley – Sacramento Kings – 2018
Marvin Bagley is a good basketball player. Someday, he might even be great. Clearly, the skills and tools are there for Bagley. Unfortunately, as unfair as it may be, he went ahead of Luka Doncic and Trae Young, so he’ll always be graded against such standards.
Bagley is part of a strong, young core in Sacramento, along with De’Aaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovic (for now), Buddy Hield, Richaun Holmes and Harry Giles – but the best-case franchise scenario rests with the forward’s development. Given his injuries this season, the former Duke standout has only played in 13 games in 2019-20 but averaged nearly the same as his rookie-year effort – about 14 points and 7.5 rebounds per game and any dangerous range just yet.
Give him time and you might be surprised at how well Bagley measures up to the draft class stars, guaranteed.
Lonzo Ball – Los Angeles Lakers – 2017
It may seem tough to stick Ball down here and Ingram up there when they were also noted as part of the next great trio in the NBA. And, OK, that’s probably fair. But in order for the Pelicans to reach their highest potential, they’ll need Ball to keep growing himself. Ball, of course, is the third Laker on this list and the third to post a career-best season after leaving. The point guard, and all his former baggage, has managed to top his points (12.4) and three-pointers made (2.5) per game totals, while also upping his field goal (41.2) free throw (56.7) and three-point (38.3) percentages as well.
Now armed with Williamson, Ball has loads of worthy playmaking options… and ones that might put him in league-leading assist territory sooner rather than later. During a late January game, Ball tossed 15 assists – but he’s also scored nine or fewer points in 21 of his 56 appearances. Clearly, there’s room for improvement, but the early signs are improving significantly – and fast.
Victor Oladipo – Orlando Magic – 2013
At another period of time, Victor Oladipo might be an undeniable hit. But after an injury took him out for a year, the jury appears to be out on the scorer. Although Oladipo had reached back-to-back All-Star Games from 2017-19, it’s fair to wonder what exactly comes next. The former Indiana man only featured in 13 games prior to the lockdown and, shaking off some evident rust, averaged just 13.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and 0.8 steals – all down from his last full campaign.
Everybody is pulling for the loveable Pacer – but we’re in wait-and-see mode through this quarantine. If the playoffs happen, expect Oladipo to play a huge role in Indiana’s ultimate fate.
The Role Players
Jabari Parker – Milwaukee Bucks – 2014
Needless to say, injuries have decimated the health of the once-super-promising Jabari Parker – but his story is not over just yet. He may not ever get back to the 20-point-per-game plateau, last averaged way back in 2016-17 with Milwaukee, but he’s still a workable and score-heavy bench piece. Through 32 contests with Atlanta this year, Parker averaged 15 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.3 steals – even starting 23 of them as well before being moved to the Sacramento Kings, where he’s only suited up for one game.
The days of superstardom are long gone for Parker, but he can still play a part for a team that means something.
Evan Turner – Philadelphia 76ers – 2010
Solid but not spectacular, Evan Turner has lasted awfully long – especially considering the volatile nature of top-five picks once they don’t take the step toward stardom. Over the last ten years, Turner has seen successful stops in Philadelphia, Boston, Portland and Indiana, earned a fat paycheck in 2016 and then gracefully aged into a veteran that franchises can utilize multiple ways. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent once this season ends – whenever that may be – and Turner should have plenty of suitors with postseason-ready rosters.
So, in all, the No. 2 picks over the years have had a little bit of everything: Stardom, offense-end generals, injuries and intrigue – but if we’ve learned anything about basketball, it’s that the story is never truly written. While only a few of these players will feature on a would-be postseason roster, the ending to the 2019-20 campaign is still very much in question. Either way, more often than not, selecting second has yielded a handful of wonderful outputs over the last decade – who is next?
NBA Trade Rumors: Jazz considering trade offers for Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale, and No. 30 pick of the 2021 NBA Draft
Per one interesting announcement from Bleacher Report’s Jake Fischer, the Utah Jazz are open to trading forward Bojan Bogdanovic, forward-guard Joe Ingles, small forward Royce O’Neale, and the No. 30 pick of the 2021 NBA Draft. Fischer stated, “The Utah Jazz are known to be one of the few teams actually searching to move playoff-tested talent. Retaining Mike Conley is an offseason priority, sources said, and the Jazz have held numerous discussions with teams around the league about offloading salary to create for Conley in free agency.” Point guard Mike Conley is set to become a free agent this offseason. Though, general manager Justin Zanik will aim to re-sign the 33-year-old guard in the coming weeks. Conley earned $34.5 million in the 2020-21 season.
“League personnel most often mention Joe Ingles as the Jazz wing to watch, and Bojan Bogdanovic and Royce O’Neale are also considered available for trade as Utah narrows its focus towards building a contender around Donovan Mitchel. The Jazz are also open to discuss trading their No. 30 pick, sources said.” In the 2020-21 season, in 72 games played, Bogdanovic averaged 17 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game. On May 1, 2021, in the team’s 106-102 victory over the Toronto Raptors, the six-foot-seven Croatian scored a season-high 34 points, shooting 12-for-22, and he finished his performance with four rebounds and four assists as well. On July 7, 2019, he signed a four-year, $73 million contract with the Jazz.
In 67 games played last season, Ingles averaged 12.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game. The six-foot-eight forward is set to earn $14 million in the 2021-22 season. Plus, among the mentioned players, Royce O’Neale has contributed the least. In 71 games played last season, he averaged seven points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists. On January 19, 2020, the forward signed a four-year, $36 million extension with the team. He will earn $8.6 million next season. According to The Athletic, in the team’s seventh workout for draft prospects, they viewed Quentin Grimes, David Duke, Matt Mitchell, and a few other players. In the first round, if the team chooses not to draft any of the players they are holding workouts for, the organization will trade the No. 30 pick.
Just for a reminder, retrieved from Spotrac, the 2021-22 NBA luxury tax threshold is $136,606,000. Utah’s active roster cap is $133,284,695, the maximum cap is $112,414,000, and the current cap space is $72,990,215. Furthermore, center Rudy Gobert currently has the highest guaranteed contract on the team. On December 20, 2020, Gobert signed a five-year, $205 million extension with the organization. Gobert is set to earn $35.3 million in the coming season, whereas Donovan Mitchell will earn $28.1 million. Gobert and Mitchell combined consume 47.6 percent of the team’s salary cap. For the upcoming 2021-22 season, the Jazz have a guaranteed total of $129,719,453. Based on the team’s future outlook, the Jazz will have to make a trade or two in order to retain their star players. This should go without saying.
NBA Analysis Network reported a few days ago that a potential Jazz-Knicks trade target is Bojan Bogdanovic. Greg Patuto proposed the Knicks receiving Bogdanovic, while the Jazz would receive Kevin Knox II, and the Nos. 19 and No. 32 picks of the 2021 NBA Draft. Now, this could still happen at some point during this draft week, but then again, sports bettors and fans alike understand that these news reports could be just rumors. The most intelligent, unforthcoming general managers know not to leave bread crumb trails for the media, especially leading into the offseason. They will do everything necessary to protect their foolproof plans.
Raptors, Pacers, Timberwolves, Kings, and Cavaliers among teams showing interest in Ben Simmons
According to Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report, five teams have shown interest in pursuing Ben Simmons from the Philadelphia 76ers. Fischer reported, “Cleveland, Indiana, Minnesota, Sacramento, and Toronto all showed interest in acquiring the runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year.” Furthermore, the teams are wanting Simmons to change position from point guard to forward. “Multiple executives from those teams, when contacted by Bleacher Report, mentioned their excitement at incorporating Simmons as a play-making forward—not at the point guard position he’s played in Philadelphia.” The six-foot-eleven guard averaged 14.3 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.9 assists in the 2020-21 NBA season. This might sound fine for a young rookie, but as a five-year player, these aforementioned statistics were career lows.
However, the 25-year-old also earned his third NBA All-Star selection and second All-Defensive first-team selection last season. After a less than mediocre performance in his third postseason of his NBA career, the majority of 76ers’ fans would agree that it’s now time for Simmons to have a change in scenery. With a regular season record of 49-23 (.681), the No. 1 ranked 76ers in the Eastern Conference entered the conference semifinals as favorites over the Atlanta Hawks. Leading into this series, some NBA analysts were predicting Philadelphia to prevail four games to two. The 2016 first overall pick was expected to limit Trae Young in scoring and rally his team from point deficits, but none of this ever manifested.
Raptors, Wolves, Cavs, Pacers and Kings have all showed interest in acquiring Ben Simmons, per B/R's @JakeLFischer
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) July 25, 2021
Pertaining to postseason averages, Simmons had a playoff series-low of 9.9 points and 6.3 rebounds per game in the conference semifinals against the Hawks. This lackluster showing proved to be a more significant downfall for the superstar, considering Simmons had only five points, eight rebounds, and 13 assists in Game 7 versus the Hawks. In the 2019-20 season, he averaged 2.1 steals per game, leading all other players in the league. Moreover, Simmons currently ranks sixth in the NBA for active player triple-doubles (32). With a total of 32 career triple-doubles, he ranks 13th on the all-time list, tied with Clippers’ guard Rajon Rondo.
On July 16, 2019, Simmons signed a five-year, $169.65 million contract extension with the 76ers. He is set to earn $30.5 million in the 2021-22 season. Among these teams interested in Simmons, Cavs’ Kevin Love has the fourth largest contract guarantee of $91.4 million. Love is due to earn $31.3 million next season, and the 13-year veteran’s contract consumes 26 percent of the team’s salary cap. He could be traded this offseason. Timberwolves’ Karl-Anthony Towns has a contract guarantee of $130.8 million. The 25-year-old Wolves center will earn $31.6 million in the upcoming season.
Plus, Kings’ 2017 first-round pick De’Aaron Fox has a guaranteed contract of $171.1 million. Fox will earn $28.1 million next season. To add to that, Raptors’ Pascal Siakim has a contract guarantee of $131.4 million. Not to mention, reported by Yahoo Sports via trade rumors yesterday, the Golden State Warriors are a potential trade partner for Toronto. The Warriors could make a move on Siakim, clearing up space on the Raptors for Simmons. Per Spotrac, the 2021-22 season cap maximum is $112,414,000. In the coming weeks, one of these said five teams might make a substantial trade offer to the 76ers’ organization that they cannot refuse.
2021 NBA Draft Best Bets Analysis for the Player Draft Position Market
The 2021 NBA Draft is scheduled for Thursday, June 29 at 8:00 p.m. (EST). The draft will be televised on ESPN and ABC. The location of the draft is at the Nets’ Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Nonetheless, although ABC is indeed airing the draft this year, they are only televising the first round. This is the first NBA draft to be held in the month of July since the 1947 Basketball Association of America (BAA) Draft.
Of course, that league went on to become the National Basketball Association (NBA). For NBA Draft betting, there are plenty of sports books available for American gamblers. The best sports books include Bovada, DraftKings, MyBookie, FanDuel, and BetUS. For NBA Draft Futures, Bovada, DraftKings, and BetGM are reasonable options. Additionally, there are multiple betting apps in existence nowadays that are accessible and easy to use, such as from BetUS, Bovada, BetOnline, and Intertops.
No. 1 Pick: Cade Cunningham (-8000)
Cade Cunningham is the front-runner for the first overall pick of the 2021 NBA Draft. He is the Big 12 Player of the Year (2021) and consensus first-team All-American (2021). On November 25, 2020, in his college debut, the 19-year-old native Texan earned 21 points and 10 rebounds in the Oklahoma State Cowboys’ 75-68 victory over the UT Arlington Mavericks. On February 27, 2021, he posted a college career-high of 40 points and 11 rebounds, in a 94-90 overtime win over the Oklahoma Sooners. In 27 games played, the six-foot-eight guard averaged 20.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 40 percent shooting from beyond the arc.
On the RSCI Top 100, he also ranked first above all other recruits. With a total of 544 points, Cunningham led the Big 12 in scoring during the 2020-21 season. When asked about how he felt concerning the probability of his No. 1 selection in the draft, he said, “If I am able to go in there and be the No. 1 pick, I’m going to try to carry that same swag in how I walk on the court and make the most out of it and wear the red, white, and blue for sure.” Detroit Pistons general manager Troy Weaver also compared Cunningham to Grant Hill, the No. 3 pick out of Duke from the 1994 NBA Draft.
Reported by CBS Sports, the Houston Rockets are interested in trading up to pick Cunningham. According to Shams Charania of Stadium, the Detroit Pistons and Rockets are negotiating a possible trade. This is considering the fact that Houston also has the Nos. 23 and 24 picks of this draft, too. The sports reporter for The Athletic and Stadium stated, “The Houston Rockets have the No. 2 overall pick of the 2021 NBA Draft, but I’m told they’re aggressively pursuing Detroit’s No. 1 overall pick. The Rockets have done extensive research on presumptive No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham.” If the organization is serious about trading up, they’ll do everything in their power to make it happen.
No. 2 Pick: Jalen Green (+200)
Jalen Green has the highest odds of being selected second in the draft. According to NBA.com mock drafts and various oddsmakers, his draft position is still most appealing to the Houston Rockets, especially if the Pistons are unwilling to make a trade. Green is a six-foot-six shooting guard from the NBA G League. On March 8, 2021, while playing for the NBA G League Ignite in the first round of the playoffs, the 19-year-old shooting guard finished his performance with a season-high of 30 points, seven assists, and five rebounds, in the 127-102 defeat versus the Raptors 905. In 15 games played in the 2020-21 season, Green averaged 17.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.5 steals in 32 minutes played per game.
Per one report from Kelly Iko of The Athletic, the Houston staff writer stated, “USC’s Evan Mobley has been discussed in some circles, as well as Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs, but smart money would be on the Rockets taking the 19-year-old out of the G League’s Ignite on draft night.” He reaffirmed his position and main point a bout head coach Stephen Silas’ likeness to flexible guards by stating, “It’s well known that head coach Stephen Silas has an affinity for versatile guards, and Green has been said to have the highest upside in his class, from a scoring, explosive, and star standpoint.” The California-born athlete could fit in nicely with the Rockets.
No. 3 Pick: Evan Mobley (-200)
Evan Mobley has the best odds for the third overall pick of the draft. Mobley is the seven-foot tall forward/center Pac-12 Player of the Year (2021) and consensus second-team All-American (2021) from the USC Trojans. On March 11, 2021, in the team’s 91-85 double overtime win against the Utah Utes in the Pac-12 Tournament quarterfinals, Mobley scored a career-high 26 points, nine rebounds, and five blocks. In 33 games played in the 2020-21 season for the Trojans, Mobley averaged 16.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and a field goal percentage of 57.8 percent. The Trojans made it to the Elite Eight after concluding their season schedule with the second-most wins (25) in program history. According to the RSCI Top 100, the 20-year-old player was ranked third on the list.
Since Anthony Davis from the Southeastern Conference in 2012, he is the only other player to win the Pac-12 Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and Freshman Player of the Year all in the same year. Mobley told the media on Friday, “I feel like as a modern-day NBA big, you have to be able to shoot, guard multiple positions, stretch the floor, and put the ball on the floor a little bit.” He later said in the interview, “I think I’ll be a generational player that no one has really seen before. That’s what I’m aspiring to be, and I’m just going to keep working and staying in the gym until I get there.” The Cleveland Cavaliers are in position to draft Mobley, but teams like the Toronto Raptors and Orlando Magic could trade up to pursue the player on draft night.
Player Draft Position
The top 10 most common picks of this draft are Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, Scottie Barnes, Jonathan Kuminga, James Bouknight, Davion Mitchell, Keon Johnson, and Franz Wagner. However, Josh Giddey could be the dark horse for the New Orleans Pelicans, considering they have the tenth pick of the draft. To add to that observation, The Ringer mock draft is showing Corey Kispert at the No. 10 spot. Kispert’s draft value lies within his perimeter shooting. In the 2020-21 season, the six-foot-seven Gonzaga forward shot 44 percent from beyond the arc. He also led the West Coast Conference in three-point field goal attempts (207) and shots made (91) last season.
Furthermore, Charles Bassey has options showing Over 38.5 (-105) and Under 38.5 (-125). Daishan Nix has a draft position presenting Over 50.5 (-125) and Under 50.5 (-105). Plus, David Johnson’s position betting odds show Over 45.5 (-120) and Under 45.5 (-110). A few bettors are predicting Jalen Johnson will go Under 12.5 (+150) in the draft. He has +10000 odds of being selected fifth overall in the draft. Yahoo Sports mock draft writers are predicting Ziaire Williams will get drafted at No. 14 by the Golden State Warriors. Though, the consensus favorite for the No. 14 spot is Oregon’s Chris Duarte. Moreover, Bleacher Report has the Warriors drafting Moses Moody at No. 7. The first-team All-SEC (2021) and SEC Freshman of the Year (2021) has +175 odds of being selected in the top 10 of the draft.
- All table odds were retrieved from Bovada
Exact Order – Top 4 Pick Odds
In the first round of the draft, the favored exact order is Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, Evan Mobley, and Jalen Suggs. The current odds are listed at -120. Another realistic possibility is Evan Mobley getting selected before Jalen Green. The exact order odds for this scenario are +600. While the Rockets seem to show the most interest in Green, the organization could pull the wool over everyone’s eyes. Bettors should not assume anything. The Rockets may go after Cunningham, if the opportunity presents itself and trades occur the night of the draft. Moreover, there is also a chance that Suggs could get picked before Mobley.
The odds for that outcome are also +600. The Cavaliers could use another aggressive defender and solid play-maker. Suggs specializes in pick-and-roll situations, so this is something for the Cavs to consider in the long run. In 30 games played, he averaged 14.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and shot 50.3 percent from the field. As a Gonzaga Bulldog, the 20-year-old guard also won a state championship in his freshman season. Having said all of this, fans need to lower their expectations before the draft. There are times these mock drafts and player interviews are not what they seem.
Regarding NBA Draft betting sites, e.g. FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetUS, bettors can bet on the top three or four picks in order, the first player to be drafted by position, a specific player being drafted by a certain team, and the Over/Under player number in the draft. As for placing bets before or during the season, the choices to bet on assists, rebounds, and points per game are other notable opportunities to keep in mind. Not to mention, NBA Finals prop bets, the Finals MVP winner, and regular season MVP winner are other options as well. The 2022 NBA Finals is scheduled to begin in June of next year.
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