Of America’s holy quadfecta of sports leagues: NBA, NFL, MLB, & NHL, it’s the NBA that’s often cited as being the easiest to predict. That’s not to say upsets and all manner of crazy things don’t occur in the NBA because they absolutely do. But, on the whole (and historically) the better team tends to win with slightly more regularity than in the other sports listed.
That said, however, if you want to consistently rake in winnings at online sportsbooks, you might want to start by checking out our best NBA betting strategies & tips.
Read on to learn more about NBA betting strategies and discover a host of top NBA betting tips.
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NBA Betting Strategy: Tips on the Main Game Lines
So long as you’ve signed up to a sportsbook and familiarized yourself with betting options available, you’re free to get down to the nitty-gritty of establishing your very own NBA betting strategies.
Seeing as these game lines feature on all NBA betting sites, we’ve listed a tried and tested tip for each of the moneyline, point spread, and total points markets. There are literally hundreds of other strategies for each line, (a selection of which will be covered further down the page).
These are by no means the best tips – just a safe tip for each line to get us going. And also to reintroduce the premier NBA betting lines (just in case you’ve landed on this page without reading our ‘How to bet on the NBA’ article).
NBA Over Under Tips (Total Points)
The total points NBA betting line involves predicting the combined number of points scored by both teams and whether or not the said total will go over or under the number specified by the oddsmakers (O220.5, or U220.5 in the NBA Finals example given above, for instance).
The most important thing to do here is to study the total points scored in previous encounters between the two teams, and also the recent points totals; perhaps just for the last 5 games for each team. We recommend figuring out a mean average over the last 5.
If the team you are wagering on – let’s say the Suns – only scored an average of 90 points in their last five, – and especially if the field goal percentage is down low – then it’s probable that the Suns struggle to put up points the next game, too.
Try to make things as predictable as you can!
NBA Moneyline Betting Strategy
There are numerous NBA betting strategies on the moneyline. But, one that we’ve grown to enjoy, is the NBA underdog moneyline betting strategy. It’s simple to implement, too: just look for tight contests where one team is expected to lose and put your money on the underdog.
This one pretty much comes out of the daytrader’s handbook – the idea being that you win more when you win, and lose less when you lose. You may even lose more bets than you win. But the odds will always be in your favor and you’ll be winning more money when you do win.
Obviously, this doesn’t mean you take the NBA’s bottom-ranked team vs. the NBA’s top-ranked team every week. It means that you look for value in closely contested games, such as in the image above.
Imagine you log into your favored NBA betting app to find that the Phoenix Suns have opened up as massive -18.5 favorites vs. Milwaukee Bucks (as above). The Suns have been tasked with not only beating the Bucks but humiliating them; running away with a 19 point W!
Should you take this bet on the spread? Well, this NBA point spread betting system says, ‘no!’ The ‘No Blowouts on the Spread’ rule suggests not wagering on such results. It’s not that they never happen; we’ve all seen our favorite team get trounced by 20 at one time or another. It’s just statistically unlikely, so you’re better off leaving this -18.5 spread alone, or checking the NBA betting app’s alternate spread for a closer score.
NBA Live Betting Strategy
Implementing an NBA live betting strategy – that is, betting while the game is in progress – is a lot of fun, especially if you’re watching a game on TV that you’re not spiritually invested in. But ‘How to win betting on live NBA’ is a bit of a loaded question – if we knew that; we’d all be sipping champagne in Seychelles right now. What we can tell you, though, is ‘how to win more often,’ and ‘how to lose less when you do lose.
Follow these basic basketball betting tips below for a much better chance of exiting an NBA live betting session in the green.
NBA Betting Strategy: Always Pay Attention to the Team’s Schedule
Statistics suggest that teams playing 3-4x per week tire and struggle to uphold consistency; particularly during the second half of a game, so keep an eye on the schedule, especially when you notice a top-ranked team has been given better than usual odds.
NBA Betting Strategy: Check the Lineups and Injury News
Milwaukee Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo is a monster in the paint and, when fit, a live bet on the Greek Freak to go over on +30 points at +500 would be a good shout. But, did you do your research? Research is a crucial part of any safe NBA betting strategy. It’s possible Giannis is carrying an injury or had a rough week emotionally, or perhaps he historically struggles in double-coverage vs. this week’s D – whatever. But don’t just bet on a name and assume the name is going to perform.
Oddsmakers always do their research; there will be a reason one of the league’s best players is listed at +500, and the reason isn’t that sportsbooks want to give away money.
NBA Over Under Betting Strategy
NBA teams consistently score more points in the second half. If you’ve wagered on the over/under game line for the Orlando Magic to go O210 points vs. Boston Celtics, but it’s just 40-45 at the half – don’t stress; don’t cash out (that’s what they want!). Sit tight: statistically speaking, teams tend to put up more points in quarters three and four, as defenses tire and sharpshooters hone in on the basket.
NBA Betting Strategy: “NBA Vegas Odds Know Best”
Another tip for the over/ under market is to not overthink what’s happening during the game so much. Oddsmakers – especially Vegas NBA oddsmakers – tend to be very close to spot on with predictions – that’s why they’re hired! Chances are the score will end at close to what the Vegas oddsmakers said it would prior to the tip. So, again, don’t panic; sit tight and wait for your NBA betting strategy to pay dividends.
As mentioned, there are many hundreds more NBA betting tips and strategies for the NBA point spread, et al when betting live, in-play. We’re just hoping to whet your appetite for some further reading.
Most Successful NBA Betting Strategy
The ‘most successful sports betting strategy is likely to change depending on who you talk to on any given day. But below we’ve listed three strategies that we’ve personally found success with over the years.
NBA Quarter Betting Strategy
One strategy that has nothing to do with stats or research is the NBA quarter’s betting strategy. All you need to do here is to bet on the team that lost the first quarter and then double up if they lose the second quarter and then double up again if they lose the third quarter. It is rare for a team to win and cover the spread in all four quarters of an NBA game; the said team might not win the game but, eventually, they’ll win a quarter – even if it is just because the dominant team opts to rest key players during the latter stages.
The Contrarian Betting Strategy NBA
Put simply, NBA sportsbooks remain in business because the general gambling public, drunk on Bud during the big game, tend to get things wrong. Taking the contrarian position just means going against the crowd and is a tactic employed by several world-famous daytraders to boot. Some of the best NBA betting sites, such as DraftKings, allow bettors to view what other bettors have been wagering on. Check it out and go against the grain – it’s really that simple.
NBA Underdog Moneyline Betting Strategy
We mentioned this NBA sports betting strategy earlier, so shan’t go into too much extra detail. But, in essence, bettors tend not to win in the long run by simply betting on the favorite. Imagine you bet on the Atlanta Hawks as favorites three times at -100 with 66.6r% success. You would be even on your $300 investment. Imagine instead that you bet on the 76ers as the underdogs and at the same rate of success: you’re up to $100 profit, and you didn’t need to risk as much to make the $100 either. You see this betting tip appear all the time on NBA totals betting strategy forums and there is a reason for that.
NBA Free Picks
Because wagering on NBA betting sites is now legal in so many states across the US there’s much less of a need to pay money to some bizarre group of oddsmaking specialists in Vegas to get your tips, as has been historically done in America.
Free NBA picks are available on such TV networks as ESPN (William Hill NBA odds) and Fox (FOXBET NBA odds). Most of the major sportsbooks publish NBA betting tips and have skilled groups of writers paid to pen the best NBA betting strategy for a specific game to hungry readers. A few notable places of interest include:
- DK Nation (Draftkings tips and forums, etc)
- BetUS (Free NBA Picks & easy access to stats)
- ESPN.com (every stat you’re likely to need)
- NBA.com (all the stats and all the news)
If you don’t trust the networks or their NBA betting apps, there are legions of other websites to visit that aren’t in direct partnerships with such companies. And, there are numerous NBA betting forums, too, where you can go to chat to like-minded folk to get their perspective and latest NBA betting tips. A few such search terms you might like to ‘Google’ are as follows:
- IG Tipping Pages
- NBA Twitter Picks
Plus, there’s always:
- Basketball Insiders (we aren’t affiliated with anyone in particular and the NBA betting advice we provide is basically what we’re going to be betting on)
Conclusion: Best NBA Betting Sites for Strategy and Tips
Factoring in all the aforementioned crucial elements that help to make up a truly winning sportsbook when it comes to NBA betting strategy (tips/stats/picks/odds, etc.), the best offshore betting app, in our opinion, is:
A sportsbook and NBA betting app that broadcasts highly competitive basketball betting odds and a large selection of NBA lines to choose from, BetUS is a top choice of sportsbook on which to implement your betting strategy.
The attention to detail on the site does not go unnoticed: regular patrons can access up-to-date stats and metrics at the click of a button whilst navigating the game lines. It’s also possible to sift through all the latest player and team news whilst on the site, as well as to scope the BetUS NBA picks written by online gambling experts.
It’s almost as if the sportsbook wants you to win – (almost).
- Deep markets for prop bets and NBA futures
- Parlay betting feature
- NBA Live betting is available
- $2,500 Risk-Free bet
- Stats and metrics are readily available at the click of a button
- Picks and latest news written by gambling experts accessible on-site – free
- Rewards patrons regularly with bonuses + referral bonus
With regards to NBA betting sites that are legally entitled to operate within the borders of the USA, it’s hard to look past this next sportsbook when it comes to developing and implementing a winning basketball betting system:
The DraftKings sportsbook contains deep markets for NBA betting across the board; provides competitive odds, and is – in our opinion – the best basketball betting app when it comes to researching, building, and implementing a winning NBA betting strategy.
The betting pages of the famed sportsbook feature up-to-the-minute stats for all the major teams and players in the league, right throughout the season, and even display intriguing prop bets alongside some of the stats presented.
On top of that, DK Nation, which is DraftKings’ accompanying betting advice and tips pages, serves up practically everything you could ever ask for as an NBA bettor: there are blogs, vlogs, NBA free picks, NBA forums, NBA strategy guides, and much, much more. The site is executed nicely, too. It’s easy to navigate and ideal for newcomers to NBA betting.
- DK Nation is chocked full of useful NBA betting strategies and tips
- NBA betting app contains easily accessible stats for players and teams
- Official betting partner of the NBA
- Live betting available on NBA Draft
- Possible to see what the general public has been wagering on
- Presents stats alongside prop bets to help bettors make wise decisions
- Offshore sportsbooks are available in more states
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