Basketball Reference Has Celtics With 47.5% Chance to Win NBA Championship

According to the Basketball-Reference database, the statistics site shows the Boston Celtics with a 47.5% chance to win this season’s 2024 NBA championship coming out of the All-Star break.

The Minnesota Timberwolves possess the second-highest percentage (14.8%), followed by the Oklahoma City Thunder (14.3%), Los Angeles Clippers (6.1%), Cleveland Cavaliers (5.7%), and New York Knicks (2.8%).

The Celtics sit at the top of the Eastern Conference standings with a 43-12 record. Boston is 26-3 at home, 17-9 away, 13-1 against Atlantic Division opponents, and 30-6 in conference play.

Coming out of the All-Star break, our projections currently give Boston a nearly 50% chance of taking home the Larry O’Brien Trophy this season. 👀

See our full playoff probabilities here: https://t.co/0r3ogSofIN pic.twitter.com/UJiu4jCcOa

— Basketball Reference (@bball_ref) February 21, 2024

Cleveland ranks second in the East standings below Boston with a 36-17 record. The Cavaliers trail the Celtics by six games. The Milwaukee Bucks (35-21) are third, followed by the Knicks (33-22) and Philadelphia 76ers (32-22).

Additionally, Minnesota leads the Western Conference with a 39-16 record. Oklahoma City (37-17) sits 1.5 games back, the Clippers (36-17) are third, and the reigning champion Denver Nuggets (36-19) are fourth.

Basketball Reference’s statisticians are not anticipating the Nuggets to repeat. However, NBA betting sites show Denver with second-best odds below the Celtics to win its second straight championship.

Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic is the odds-on favorite to win MVP. If not for Sixers’ Joel Embiid last season, Jokic could have become the first NBA player since Larry Bird (1984-86) to win three straight awards.

Basketball Reference has Timberwolves as Celtics’ biggest championship threat, Cavs to upset Boston?

Minnesota and Boston split the regular-season series. The Clippers tied the series with the Celtics after their Jan. 27 matchup at Boston. Two other teams that are capable of challenging the C’s are the Nuggets and Cavaliers.

Boston lost 102-100 to Denver at TD Garden on Jan. 19, suffering its first defeat at home this season and first loss since a 131-129 double-overtime defeat against the Knicks on March 5, 2023.

Their 20 straight home wins this season were the Celtics’ second most in their franchise history without a loss. Boston’s best regular-season home record is 40-1, which was set in the 1985-86 season.

The C’s are also 4-4 this season in one-possession games.

NBA Championship Odds (via ESPN)

1. Celtics (+260)
2. Nuggets (+450)
3. Clippers (+500)
4. Bucks (+650)
5. Suns (+1500)
6. KNICKS (+2000)
7. Thunder (+2500)
8. Timberwolves (+2500)
9. Cavs (+2500)
10. Sixers (+3000)

— KnicksMuse (@KnicksMuse) February 21, 2024

Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 18-2 in their last 20 games and went 14-1 over a 15-game stretch from Jan. 3-Feb. 5. Cleveland tied its best record in franchise history over a 15-game span.

It’s the Cavaliers’ best record over a 15-game span without LeBron James. Their only defeat during this set of games was a 126-116 loss against the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum on Jan. 24.

Furthermore, Cleveland can win anywhere. The Cavs have an NBA-best road record of 17-8. Plus, they are 11-0 this season when holding opponents below 100 points.

The Celtics are aiming to keep their six-game win streak alive when they play at Chicago on Thursday night.