Where Will Brook Lopez End Up?

In 2010, Mikhail Prokhorov bought a majority stake in the then-New Jersey Nets and boldly proclaimed that he would turn the franchise around after the team failed to make the postseason three years in a row.

“How fast can we build a championship team?” Prokhorov asked rhetorically. “If everything goes as planned, I expect us to be in the playoffs next season and [win a] championship in one year minimum, and maximum in five years.”

Almost five years later and the Nets have made it to the posteason twice, making it as far as the semifinals last season. To accomplish this, Nets general manager Billy King traded away several draft picks to acquire veterans like Deron Williams, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Gerald Wallace in the hopes of quickly putting together a championship team. The gamble didn’t pay off and in the process the Nets loaded up their salary sheet and traded away valuable draft picks, some of which eventually became players like Damian Lillard, Gorgui Dieng, and Draymond Green.

With no championships, few future assets and the recent $2 billion sale of the Los Angeles Clippers, it makes sense that Prokhorov is now interested in selling his stake in the franchise. In preparation of a sale, the Nets are now looking to offload veteran players like Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez.

Lopez has been the name that has come up most often in trade rumors recently. He was reportedly almost traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder a few weeks ago, and most recently was connected to the Denver Nuggets. Both deals eventually fell through and now the question remains, where will Lopez end up?

Lopez, selected 10th overall by the Nets in the 2008 NBA Draft, is set to earn $15,719,062 this season and has a player option for $16,744,218 next season. He has struggled with foot injuries dating back to the 2011-12 season, which has hurt his stock significantly around the league. Additionally, Lopez is a poor rebounder for a seven-foot center (7.2 rpg career average), which has been a major weakness in his game since his second season in the league.

However, when healthy, Lopez is one of best scoring centers in the league (17.8 ppg career average). He has good hands, can score in the post, hit shots from midrange and has a nice floater. And while Lopez is not known as a plus-defender, he is ranked 28 among all centers in ESPN’s defensive real plus-minus metric (1.78), right behind defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert.  In addition, he is allowing opponents to shoot just 49.8 percent at the rim on nine field goal attempts at the rim per game, per SportVU. This puts him right ahead of noted rim protectors like Omer Asik and Tyson Chandler (though well behind other big men like Rudy Gobert and Serge Ibaka). He is also blocking 1.6 shots per game, which is not elite, but is much better than centers like Nikola Pekovic and Enes Kanter, who are simply incapable of blocking shots at a high rate.

So who may be interested in a high-scoring center with a bad history of injuries that rebounds poorly and is average defensively? Most likely teams that are at this point fringe contenders who need an upgrade at center. Other teams that could be interested are rebuilding teams that are looking for a long-term answer at center and are willing to gamble on Lopez’s health.

With all of this in mind, here are some teams that could be a destination for Lopez:

Denver Nuggets:

Outgoing players: JaVale McGee, J.J. Hickson, future 1st round pick
Incoming players: Brook Lopez

Marc Stein of ESPN recently reported that the Denver Nuggets offered J.J. Hickson, JaVale McGree and one of the two first-round draft picks the Nuggets acquired from the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Timofey Mozgov deal for Lopez. The Nets declined the offer and according to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports, talks between these teams have been off for roughly a week.

However, there is a little more than two weeks until the trade deadline, so discussions between the Nets and Nuggets could start again at some point soon. For the Nuggets, they turn Hickson and McGee into a former All-Star center that can join Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried as the building blocks in Denver. Hickson is a good backup big man, but McGee has had more injury issues than Lopez recently and has never found any consistency on either end of the court.

For the Nets, they gain a draft pick, which is important for them considering how many they have traded away in recent years. They also would get a look at McGee over the next season and a half to see if he can ever develop into the center the Nuggets envisioned years ago (similar to how DeAndre Jordan has improved over the last few seasons with the Clippers). This isn’t a home-run trade for either team, but it makes some sense for both sides.

Oklahoma City Thunder:

Outgoing players: Kendrick Perkins, Nick Collison, Jeremy Lamb
Incoming players: Brook Lopez

In mid-January, there were multiple reports that the Oklahoma City Thunder were in trade talks with the Nets to acquire Lopez. The Charlotte Hornets were involved in the discussions as well, however, they eventually pulled out, leaving the Nets and Thunder to deal directly with one another.

Kendrick Perkins and Jeremy Lamb were the main pieces mentioned in any deal for Lopez, but the Nets decided to pass on this deal. Similar to the failed deal with the Nuggets, the Nets may reconsider this deal as Lamb has shown flashes of potential at shooting guard. The Nets may ultimately demand more than Perkins’ expiring deal and Lamb, but don’t expect the Thunder to give up much more than they have already offered.

For the Thunder, they would lose the veteran presence of Perkins and young talent in Lamb, but add scoring and size to the frontcourt. As mentioned earlier, Lopez is not as bad of a defensive player as people may think and his ability to score in the post would be a new element to the Thunder’s offensive attack. That, and any deficiencies Lopez may have at center could be partially offset by the significant defensive impact of Serge Ibaka.

The Thunder are still at risk of missing the postseason and if things don’t start rapidly improving before the trade deadline, they could make another hard push for Lopez. Oklahoma City may opt to keep Collison out of any deals for Lopez, but they would need to include someone else since a straight up deal for Lamb and Perkins does not work salary-wise.

Phoenix Suns:

Outgoing players: Isaiah Thomas, P.J. Tucker
Incoming players: Brook Lopez

The Phoenix Suns are currently  28-22, good for eighth place in the West, but tied with the New Orleans Pelicans in the loss column. In addition, the Oklahoma City Thunder are still in striking distance and are a serious threat to eventually bump the Suns out of the playoff picture in the West.

Considering this, the Suns could benefit from adding a center like Lopez. The Suns recently acquired big man Brandan Wright, which helps to address their frontcourt depth. But as efficient as Wright is, he can’t score the ball like Lopez. Also, Alex Len has shown significant improvement, but he too can’t score the ball like Lopez can and still has a long way to go in his development.

Sending Thomas and Tucker to the Nets hurts as both players bring real value to the Suns, but Phoenix has plenty of depth on the wing and even more so at point guard. Also, the Suns have the best training staff in the league, so if anyone could take a risk on Lopez’s injury history, it’s Phoenix.

For the Nets, they get an impact point guard on a favorable deal. Thomas can take over at point guard once Williams is traded (assuming Williams will in fact be traded this season). Tucker is a throw-in in the deal for salary matching purposes, but he is a physical 3-and-D player that could be moved in a later deal if the Nets don’t want to keep him.

Los Angeles Lakers:

Outgoing players: Jordan Hill, Steve Nash
Incoming players: Brook Lopez

Unlike the Thunder and Suns, the Los Angeles Lakers are not concerned with trying to make the playoffs this season. As Kobe Bryant recovers from season-ending shoulder surgery and many of his teammates are playing on expiring contracts, the team is more concerned with rebuilding the team with young talent and free agent acquisitions.

The Lakers have missed out on some of its major free agent targets recently, so trading for a center like Lopez could be an appealing alternative to relying on offseason signings. This is especially true considering that at age 26, Lopez is still young enough to be a cornerstone piece for a rebuilding team. The Lakers already have Julius Randle at power forward, and adding Lopez would give them a nice big-man duo in the front court.

The Lakers give up Hill, who is set to make $9 million next season (team option). Hill is having a good season and there is interest from competitive teams that need additional depth in the frontcourt. The Nets may not see Hill as a long-term fit in Brooklyn, but they could simply let Hill’s contract expire after the season. The Nets also receive Nash’s expiring contract, which helps to clear the books in anticipation of a sale of the team.

New York Knicks:

Outgoing players: Andrea Bargnani, Jason Smith
Incoming players: Brook Lopez

Like the Lakers, the New York Knicks are looking to overhaul its roster. The Knicks have been linked to big men like Marc Gasol and Greg Monroe, both of whom will be unrestricted free agents next offseason. It’s unlikely that New York can snag Gasol out of Memphis, but Monroe could be a realistic option.

However, if the Knicks want to lockup a young, skilled center now, rather than gambling in free agency, then trading for Lopez makes sense.

The Nets may demand more than just expiring contracts, especially since teams like the Nuggets and Thunder have already offered young players and draft picks. The Knicks have some young players that they could include in a deal – like Cleanthony Early – but it’s not clear how much they would be willing to give up in a trade.

[Update: There was a previous version of the story that listed the Milwaukee Bucks as an option. However, as terms of the Jason Kidd exit agreement between Brooklyn and Milwaukee, those teams are barred from transactions with each other for one year.]

These are some teams that could be interested in trading for Lopez. While Lopez has his shortcomings, he could certainly help a team with his ability to score the ball and decent defensive presence under the rim. Expect teams to keep calling the Nets as we get closer to the February 19 trade deadline.