Tanking For This?: Some NBA teams made the decision this season to field squads that would struggle to win. Some may call this “tanking,” but the truth is there are cycles in sports and every team at some point is going to go through periods where winning games won’t be the primary objective, mainly because they don’t have the talent to win. The Los Angeles Lakers didn’t set out to be 21-39, injuries took some of their best players off the floor leaving them to lean on players that were starting in the D-League or on their way out of the league; that’s simply how the down cycle works out.
For most of the teams that are not winning games right now, the hope is that young players get valuable experience and playing time and that the losses equate to Ping-Pong balls bouncing their way in the May 20 NBA Draft Lottery. The problem with betting the house on the Ping-Pong balls is that the payoff of a lottery pick is wildly unpredictable. As much as pundits and experts try to label players as the next great thing, historically, what the draft is pegged to be is rarely what it turns out being.
Here is a brief look at the history of the last 11 top three picks:
Top Overall Picks
2013 Anthony Bennett, UNLV – Cleveland Cavaliers
2012 Anthony Davis, Kentucky – New Orleans Hornets
2011 Kyrie Irving, Duke – Cleveland Cavaliers
2010 John Wall, Kentucky – Washington Wizards
2009 Blake Griffin, Oklahoma – L.A. Clippers
2008 Derrick Rose, Memphis – Chicago Bulls
2007 Greg Oden, Ohio State – Portland Trail Blazers
2006 Andrea Bargnani, Italy – Toronto Raptors
2005 Andrew Bogut, Utah – Milwaukee Bucks
2004 Dwight Howard, SW Atlanta Christian Academy (GA) – Orlando Magic
2003 LeBron James, St. Vincent-St. Mary HS (OH) – Cleveland Cavaliers
»In Related: The History of the Top Overall Pick
Second Overall Picks
2013 Victor Oladipo, Indiana – Orlando Magic
2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky – Charlotte Bobcats
2011 Derrick Williams, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
2010 Evan Turner, Ohio State – Philadelphia 76ers
2009 Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut – Memphis Grizzlies
2008 Michael Beasley, Kansas State – Miami HEAT
2007 Kevin Durant, Texas – Seattle Supersonics
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas – Chicago Bulls (Draft rights traded to Portland Trail Blazers)
2005 Marvin Williams, North Carolina – Atlanta Hawks
2004 Emeka Okafor, Connecticut – Charlotte Bobcats
2003 Darko Milicic, Serbia & Montenegro – Detroit Pistons
»In Related: The History of the Second Overall Pick
Third Overall Picks
2013 Otto Porter, Georgetown – Washington Wizards
2012 Bradley Beal, Florida – Washington Wizards
2011 Enes Kanter, Kentucky – Utah Jazz
2010 Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech – New Jersey Nets
2009 James Harden, Arizona State – Oklahoma City Thunder
2008 O.J. Mayo, USC – Minnesota Timberwolves (Traded to Memphis Grizzlies)
2007 Al Horford, Florida – Atlanta Hawks
2006 Adam Morrison, Gonzaga – Charlotte Bobcats
2005 Deron Williams, Illinois – Utah Jazz
2004 Ben Gordon, Connecticut – Chicago Bulls
2003 Carmelo Anthony, Syracuse – Denver Nuggets
»In Related: The History of the Third Overall Pick
When you look at the draft historically, there are a lot more misses than hits. Equally, landing a top three pick often means a team is so bad that a return trip though the lottery is almost inevitable. It’s very rare that a team dips into top three pick territory and bounces back into the playoff hunt. Landing a top three pick usually means at least one more trip through the lottery, and usually another trip through the middle of the lottery after that, before returning to respectability.
Some teams have struggled to even achieve that.
The Repeat Offenders
If you look at the last 11 years of the draft, based on picks made it is rare that a team that picks in the top three does not make a return trip to lottery the following year.
|3||Washington||Washington||Utah||New Jersey||Oklahoma City||Minnesota|
|6||New Orleans||Portland||Washington||Golden State||Minnesota||New York|
|7||Sacramento||Golden State||Sacramento||Detroit||Golden State||Clippers|
|10||Portland||New Orleans||Milwaukee||Indiana||Milwaukee||New Jersey|
|11||Philadelphia||Portland||Golden State||New Orleans||New Jersey||Indiana|
|9||Sacramento||Golden State||Golden State||Philadelphia||New York|
|11||Philadelphia||Orlando||Orlando||Golden State||Golden State|
|12||New Orleans||New Orleans||Clippers||Seattle||Seattle|
Cleveland drafted LeBron James number one overall in 2003 and were back in the lottery the following year. Orlando made two more trips to the lottery after making Dwight Howard the top overall pick in 2004.
Some teams never seem to be able to get out of the lottery. Over the last 11 years, Charlotte leads the league with nine lottery picks, including six straight. Sacramento has picked in the last seven lotteries and looks poised to make it eight this year. Toronto has had eight lottery selections in the last 11 years with Golden State having had seven lottery selections in 11 years.
The Cavaliers have had four selections in the top four in the lottery and still are not a playoff team.
So while dreaming of the gems of the lottery, even a draft class with the possibilities in 2014, it usually leads to more losing, before there is a real chance at winning.
So while “tanking” might sound appealing, in application it usually doesn’t pan out quite like you think it will.
»In Related:The History of The Draft By Team
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2019 NBA Consensus Mock Draft – Ver 5.0
Each week, four of Basketball Insiders’ experts take a look at the draft class and weigh in on what they are seeing and hearing in the march up to the 2019 NBA Draft.
Each week, four of Basketball Insiders’ top writers will break down the latest news and notes surrounding the 2019 NBA Draft. With every new version, you’ll see an updated mock draft that reflects how each writer sees the draft landscape based on the latest news, workouts, and information from the pre-draft process as well as a notebook, outlining each writers’ thoughts, observations and reporting on the draft.
Keep in mind; we are trying to find commonalities, which is why it is called the Consensus. The writers involved do not see each other’s selections until these are posted. It is done deliberately to make sure each writer is not influencing the others.
As this process plays out, the mocks will evolve, so look for a new Consensus each Wednesday, all the way up to draft day on June 20th.
Here is this week’s Consensus Mock:
EDITORS NOTE: This is technically last week’s Consensus Mock Draft, these picks we made a several days ago and will be updated again this week to get back on schedule.
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NBA Daily: Don’t Sleep on Fred Hoiberg
With the team the Bulls have assembled this summer, Fred Hoiberg finally has the chance to run things the way he always wanted.
Fred Hoiberg hasn’t exactly had the best start as a head coach in the NBA.
In the three years that Hoiberg has coached the Bulls, the team has only gotten to the playoffs once as an eighth seed, where they were eliminated by the Celtics in six games.
Since taking the reins as coach, Hoiberg has tried to implement a pace-and-space system with Chicago. This approach would be hard to execute on a team like the Bulls over the last several years since Hoiberg’s best players weren’t exactly sharpshooters.
In the last four years, Hoiberg’s marquee players have included Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Pau Gasol, Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, Taj Gibson, and Robin Lopez, all of whom ranged from putrid to “meh” floor spacers. Hoiberg’s system was not well-received by the team, specifically by Butler, which created much tension that escalated to the point of Butler issuing an “it’s him or me!” ultimatum to Bulls management.
Unlike almost every other team who’s been through similar conflicts between players and coaches, Chicago sided with the coach. Again, Hoiberg has not led the Bulls to much success, but the glimpses of excellence that have shown themselves from the system that he’s designed may very well show that the Bulls made the right choice.
It wasn’t too long ago that Hoiberg was holding his own against Brad Stevens in a playoff series, who many believe is one of the best coaches in the game at the moment. In the first round of the 2017 playoffs, the Bulls stole the first two games from the top-seeded Celtics while in Boston. Many point to the brilliance of Rajon Rondo for why the Bulls pulled ahead, which is mostly true, but the Bulls’ hot shooting in both games gave them an edge.
Between individual performances—Bobby Portis shot 8-for-10 including from 3-for-4 from three-point land in Game 1—or all-around team performances—the team shot 10-for-25 from three in Game 2, the shooting gave the Bulls an edge, which fueled hope for a potential upset.
Of course, it was all fluky given that Chicago shot 34 percent from three in the regular season, good for 24th in the league. Nonetheless, their spacing sent the Celtics spinning. The tides inevitably turned once Rondo went out with a thumb injury, effectively dooming the Bulls. Still, for a brief moment, Hoiberg’s strategy proved successful.
The Bulls later went full rebuild when they got rid of Butler, Rondo, and Wade, but somehow, we got yet another glimpse of Hoiberg’s brilliance. Record-wise, the Bulls were nothing to brag about, as their 27-55 record tied for sixth-worst record in the league, lowlighted by their 3-20 start. However, once Nikola Mirotic returned from injury, the Bulls went on a tear.
In a 12-game span, the Bulls had gone 10-2, beating half of the East’s playoff teams, including Boston, Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia. Mirotic’s return catapulted the Bulls’ three-point shooting, as they shot 38 percent from deep while shooting an average of 26 shots per game. It didn’t seem possible given all they got rid of, but the Bulls were rolling.
At that point, it didn’t matter because the Bulls were already in too big a hole to dig themselves out of, but Hoiberg’s system yet again got some results.
The rebuild is in full swing in the Windy City. but after the moves that the Bulls have made this summer, Hoiberg may finally show the NBA what he’s made of this upcoming season.
First, they drafted Wendell Carter with the seventh overall pick in the draft. Fans were understandably furious that the Bulls’ surprising albeit pointless 10-2 run midseason played a part in killing their chances of getting a top-5 pick in a loaded draft, but Carter put their anger to rest with his brilliant all-around play in the summer league.
Second, they re-signed Zach LaVine. The Bulls raised some eyebrows when they matched the very expensive offer sheet that LaVine signed with Sacramento, but LaVine looked like he hadn’t missed a beat when he came back late in the season. Now that he’ll have a full training camp under his belt, LaVine should be able to better acclimate himself into the Bulls’ game plan by the time the season begins.
Third, they added Jabari Parker. Parker will be one of the bigger question marks coming into this season given his injury history, but his potential as a dynamic scorer in this league is still untapped. Better yet, being a Chicago native and having a team option next year, Parker may be extra motivated to show why he was the second overall pick in the 2014 draft.
Factor in these guys with the exciting youth movement that Chicago already has in place, and the Bulls have formed a team that can only be described as “not good, but fun.”
But there’s more to it than that. This isn’t just about the talent that Chicago has accumulated since trading Jimmy Butler. The fact of the matter is, they’re now building the team that Fred Hoiberg always wanted to run after all these years.
Look at the three-point percentages from the Bulls’ young rotation from this past season:
Jabari Parker: 38 percent
Denzel Valentine: 38 percent
Lauri Markkanen: 36 percent
Bobby Portis: 36 percent
Zach Lavine: 34 percent
Kris Dunn: 32 percent
They may not have a Kyle Korver or a Ray Allen type, but that is all-around a step up compared to the shooters they had before. Factoring in Wendell Carter’s floor spacing in college (41 percent from three) and their other first-rounder Chandler Hutchison (35 percent), the Bulls youth movement can finally give Hoiberg the spacing he wants.
As for pacing, the Bulls are also on the up and up.
In Hoiberg’s first year, the Bulls ran at a pace of 95.7, which tied for 15th in the league. In his second, they ran at a pace of 95.3, good for 20th in the league. This past season, they’ve bumped themselves all the way to 10th as they played at a pace of 98.3. Now that Parker and LaVine are anticipated to play this season with a clean slate of health, their pace should continue to go up as Hoiberg has wanted from the beginning.
There will most definitely be some hurdles for the Bulls this season. Besides the fact that they are a very young team, nobody will be exactly intimidated by the Bulls’ defense. The Bull ranked 24th in defensive rating last year, allowing 110.8 points per 100 possessions, and there’s not much they can do to improve that outside of the addition of Carter. Dunn and Robin Lopez are more than solid, but LaVine, Parker, and Markkanen aren’t making an all-NBA Defense team anytime soon.
All of that, however, is part of the learning process for both Hoiberg and these Baby Bulls. Once again, the bar for them is set at “not good, but fun.” The Bulls had the worst point differential in the Eastern conference at -7.0, so there’s plenty of room for improvement for them, especially now that there is nothing holding back their coach.
With Hoiberg’s vision coming to fruition, and the Eastern Conference having quite a few iffy teams, this is an opportunity for the fourth-year coach to prove once and for all that he was the right man for the job when the Bulls hired him to replace the well-esteemed Tom Thibodeau.
In other words, for Chicago to succeed, Hoiberg must take the bull by the horns.
NBA Daily: Who Could Be The Next Star On The Move?
With the 2018-19 NBA Season approaching, the big question being asked is who is the next star player on the move, Steve Kyler takes a look at a few of the names to watch.
Who Is Next?
Twelve months ago, the idea that former Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard would be anywhere but San Antonio seemed laughable. But as history has shown in the NBA, it doesn’t take much for a seemingly untouchable star to ask for a trade out of even the greatest of situations.
With that in mind, how are some of the guys to watch in 2018-19 that could end up in a similar, albeit not nearly as awkward, situation.
Jimmy Butler – Minnesota Timberwolves
It is easy to forget that Wolves All-Star Jimmy Butler did not choose Minnesota, it was chosen for him. And while the situation was ideal for Jimmy in being reunited with head coach Tom Thibodeau, he didn’t pick the Wolves, they picked him.
Butler made the most of his first season in Minnesota, but for most of the year and all of the off-season there have been stories about Butler being frustrated with how the young players on the roster compete and look at the game, and that maybe he’s not all the way on board with the direction of the franchise.
Butler has a long history of being a tough guy to play with, mainly because of his competitive nature. Butler has not qualms about laying into a teammate both publicly and privately, and that can wear thin on young guys who may not be as thick-skinned as Butler wants them to be. Tough love doesn’t work with everyone.
The Wolves have been trying to get Butler to agree to a multi-year extension, but the problem is extensions are based on the final year of a player’s contract. That’s not in Butler’s best financial interest, meaning he’ll likely hit unrestricted free agency in July, if only to re-set his deal and ensure he gets as much money as possible.
The uncertainty of pending free agency combined with roster frustrations makes Butler a name to watch as the season gets underway.
The narrative from Minnesota is they won’t trade him. We’ll see how steadfast they remain if frictions between Butler and the young guys pick up where they left off, or worse yet, if the Wolves struggle to get out front in a loaded Western Conference.
Damian Lillard – Portland Trail Blazers
Anyone that has spent time with Blazers guard Damian Lillard will tell you he is loyal to a fault. For the Trail Blazers, that’s a good thing because he’ll likely give them a runway longer than maybe they deserve based on how the roster and the salary cap has been managed. The additional upside for Portland is Lillard is under guaranteed contract for three more seasons, including the upcoming one.
That said, does anyone believe the Blazers are serious contenders?
This will be the problem the Blazers have to battle. Not the fact they won 49 games last season and nabbed the third seed in the West; it’s the perception they are second tier.
Some would say that’s on the Blazers players to evolve in their contracts and star status in the NBA, and that might be a fair criticism, but how often in the modern NBA has the potentially disgruntled or unhappy player taken ownership of the situation?
Given how differently Lillard is wired, he might be the first to shoulder the blame for his team’s limitations in a genuine way, but there is a reality: the Golden State Warriors are not going anywhere in the short term. At what point does management in Portland simply sell high on the roster they have and try to reload or rebuild?
That’s the real question to watch in this situation, because Lillard may never be the guy that askes out. The real question is, how long do the Blazers stick with what they have and end their season in May?
Does anyone believe Blazer’s owner Paul Allen will be happy being the third seed every year of Lillard’s contract?
Kyle Lowry – Toronto Raptors
Tick-tock. Kyle Lowry is on the clock.
When the Toronto Raptors opted to trade DeMar DeRozan for Kawhi Leonard, they made a big bet that not only would Leonard put them over the top in the East, but that his two-way style of play would yield more to the team than DeRozan.
The problem for the Raptors is Lowry and DeRozan were incredibly close, and the manner in which things were communicated has undoubtedly created a real and tangible awkwardness to the team dynamic.
Let’s be real for a minute. Lowry is a pro; he’ll come in and do his job and do it well. That’s how Lowry is wired, so to think he’d be petty because his best friend was traded is misplaced, so let’s make sure to table that idea.
There is, however, a reality that if Leonard and Lowry don’t mesh on the court, Lowry could be moved. Equally, if things don’t come together by the deadline, the Raptors could be in fire sale mode, not only with Lowry but with Leonard.
The Raptors made a big bet on Leonard; if that bet doesn’t look like it will pay off, all bets are off in Toronto, and the roster could get flipped on its head at the deadline, and that makes Lowry a name to watch.
Anthony Davis – New Orleans Pelicans
Amusingly, the guy that sings the praises for his current team is the one most people talk about when they dream about the next big fish to switch teams, and that’s Pelicans All-Star Anthony Davis.
It’s important to point out Davis has never hinted at being anything but thrilled with the Pelicans and his trust in his team.
Skeptics will point out virtually every star player that changed teams said basically the same kinds of things at similar points in their contracts. Davis has two fully guaranteed years left on his deal in New Orleans, and a Player Option in 2020-21.
This will be a big year for the Pelicans and Davis. They had an amazing run in the post-season last year and may have finally found the right kinds of players to play with Davis in a way that could yield post-season success. The fear in all of this is that even with the Pelicans’ window being fairly open right now, do they have enough to be elite in the West?
Davis continues to say all the right things, and he will soon be eligible for a Super Max contract extension from the Pelicans worth some $220 plus million. The question becomes, will he sign it or put himself front and center in the rumor mill?
At this point, Davis seems thrilled with his team, and that’s a huge positive for the Pelicans. The question is, will he stay happy if they don’t gain ground?
At this point, none of these guys seem ready to bail on their team, but like Leonard a year ago, no one saw the distrust brewing or the desire to exit as being even a remote reality. One thing that has been true in the current iteration of the NBA is that even the biggest of stars will look for the door if their teams are not moving towards a championship, and that’s the biggest reason to watch some of these names, because they are all crossing into that point in their career where being a star with a lot of money may not be enough to justify being home and not deep into the playoffs in May.
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