Each season, a number of players “break out.” For some, that means making the transition from good to great. For others, they go from not playing to becoming a significant contributor on their team. At the end of the day, breaking out is when a player clearly takes their game to the next level.
Last season, Portland Trail Blazers shooting guard C.J. McCollum was perhaps the best example of a breakout player. He went from averaging 6.8 points in 2014-15 to 20.8 points last season. His point total increased by 305 percent, and he won the NBA’s Most Improved Player award after helping Portland surprisingly make the playoffs and advance to the second round.
Which players could be poised for a breakout campaign in the 2016-17 season?
We asked a number of our Basketball Insiders writers to pick a player they believe will have a breakout season and explain why. Check out the picks below and add your thoughts in the comment section:
Alex Kennedy: Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers
Myles Turner got better and better throughout his rookie year with the Indiana Pacers, culminating in his excellent first-round playoff series against the Toronto Raptors. In seven games, the 20-year-old center averaged 10.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.3 blocks in 28.1 minutes.
I expect him to pick up right where he left off when his sophomore campaign begins. Turner recently shined as a member of USA Basketball’s Select Team, an experience that allowed him to receive instruction from Gregg Popovich, learn from some of the best players in the NBA and – most importantly – increase his confidence. I recently interviewed Turner and he predicted that he’d make big strides next season, and I completely agree with him.
(By the way, I was tempted to go with Angry Russell Westbrook here since we all expect him to have a monster year following the departure of Kevin Durant. But I figured we’re focusing more on younger guys who have yet to really emerge so I went with Turner. Still, it’s fair to say that Angry Westbrook is going to break out since he will almost certainly take his game to another level. And I can’t freakin’ wait).
Ben Dowsett: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
Jokic may already have broken out on some level in his rookie season, but he flew mostly under the radar for a Denver team not good enough to challenge for the playoffs but not bad enough to inspire much attention.
At just 20 years old most of the year, Jokic already showcased many of the skills needed for an offensive fulcrum in the frontcourt: the shooting chops to keep defenders honest, the height to see the floor and the sort of passing touch rarely seen in guys his size. He became one of just four rookies in league history listed at 6’10 or taller to assist on at least 18 percent of team baskets while on the floor, joining only Blake Griffin, Tony Kukoc and Lamar Odom on that prestigious list.
With a three-point stroke that should improve along with the margins of his game and his overall strength, Jokic is primed to bust out and gain national recognition as one of the top young bigs in the game.
Eric Pincus: D’Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers
D’Angelo Russell should have a big year with the Los Angeles Lakers. He’ll have a lot more freedom playing for head coach Luke Walton than he did under Byron Scott last year. Russell has clearly grown as a player over the past year. His first Summer League was a disaster, but in Las Vegas this past month, Russell was one of the better players on the court. With the gravity of Kobe Bryant off the court, Russell will make big strides this season.
Oliver Maroney: Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
Devin Booker’s breakout may have already started if we count his showing at the Las Vegas Summer League, where he averaged 26 points, 6.5 assists and five rebounds. Booker is clearly feeling very confident and this could be an indication of what’s to come in his sophomore season.
Mid-way through last season, Booker moved from the bench to the starting lineup on the Suns and he performed extremely well. Everyone around the Suns organization has positive things to say about Booker, who possesses incredible physical tools as well as a great work ethic.
“[He doesn’t seem] like a 19-year-old,” said Irving Roland, one of his player development coaches from last season. “I see him being an All-Star in the next few years. Definitely going to be one of the best two-guards in this league for a while.”
As a rookie, Booker averaged 13.8 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.6 assists and he’ll be looking to improve those numbers this season. With his maturity, skill set and desire to be great, Booker seems to have star potential.
Moke Hamilton: Justise Winslow, Miami HEAT
Without Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson and Luol Deng, the Miami HEAT have likely gone from Eastern Conference contender to lottery team. In it all, though, there will be immense opportunity for many of the team’s younger pieces and players. Mainly, all eyes should be on Justise Winslow.
Selected with the 10th overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft, Winslow was believed by many to be the latest prize stolen by Pat Riley. Last season, with the aforementioned veterans above him on the depth chart and in terms of touchs, Winslow’s numbers belied the intangibles that he brought to the game. In May, Winslow was quoted as saying that he wanted the HEAT to eventually be “his” team and now, as the expected starter at small forward, he will lead the youth movement that is unfolding in Miami. With Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, Tyler Johnson and Hassan Whiteside, Winslow has been working meticulously during the offseason with the goal of emerging as Erik Spoelstra’s new rock.
Based on what we have seen, it’s easy to imagine that Winslow will improve upon his pedestrian output from his rookie season. In 28.6 minutes, he scored 6.4 points, grabbed 5.2 rebounds and dished out 1.5 assists. In all likelihood, the minutes and production will increase dramatically this coming season and he is certainly a player who appears in line for a breakout campaign.
Jabari Davis: Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
Rodney Hood had a spectacular second year with the Utah Jazz. The 23rd pick in the 2014 NBA Draft almost doubled his scoring total from his rookie campaign, jumping from 8.7 points to 14.5 points per game – while improving his field goal percentage.
Hood’s big emergence came after the All-Star break, when he scored 20 or more points seven times. But it’s not just his scoring that makes Hood so impressive. Rodney’s ability to drive and create off the dribble is also underrated. While his defense needs improving, his creativity and vision are solid.
The Jazz need Hood to continue his development and produce on the perimeter if they’re going to make the playoffs next season. Hood has obviously been impressive as he’s progressed in each of the first two years, but I think he still has another level he can reach.
A breakout campaign from Hood would be excellent for Utah, not only because they hope to make the playoffs next year but also because the team has big decisions to make next summer. With Gordon Hayward, George Hill and Shelvin Mack all becoming free agents after this upcoming season, Hood improving would show the Jazz that they can rely on him more if one or more of those players decide to leave.
Lang Greene: Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls
The third season will be the charm for Mirotic with the Bulls. The frontcourt was a crowded place for big men in Chicago last season, but the departures of Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol in free agency this summer will undoubtedly open up minutes for Mirotic.
The forward improved his three-point accuracy from 32 percent as a rookie to 39 percent last season. The addition of slashing guards Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade in free agency should lead to even more opportunities on the perimeter for Mirotic to thrive, especially now that the logjam has been cleared up.
Jesse Blancarte: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte Hornets
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was taken with the second pick in the 2012 NBA Draft and has established himself as one of the NBA’s best wing-defenders. Unfortunately, injuries have limited Kidd-Gilchrist to just 62 total games over the last two seasons.
If Kidd-Gilchrist is close to 100 percent healthy entering the upcoming season and has worked out some of the kinks in his jump shot, I expect him to have his best season yet. He is already a strong slasher, finishes well around the rim and, of course, is a monster on defense. With some added range and experience, Kidd-Gilchrist has the chance to be this year’s breakout player.
Tommy Beer: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Amazingly, the Greek Freak is still just 21 years old and has only started to scratch the surface of his vast potential. In the second half of last season, when Milwaukee began to lean on him heavily, Giannis posted some incredibly impressive numbers.
Over the final 29 games he played in, Antetokounmpo averaged 18.7 points (while shooting over 50 percent from the floor), 8.8 rebounds and seven assists per game. He also chipped in 1.4 steals and 1.9 blocks per game during the season-closing stretch. Bucks head coach Jason Kidd has said Giannis will handle point guard duties for Milwaukee next season, and the sky is the limit for this kid.
Cody Taylor: Dennis Schroder, Atlanta Hawks
With Jeff Teague out of the picture, Schroder becomes the man tasked with running the Atlanta Hawks’ offense. The writing had been on the wall now for some time for Teague, and Schroder will finally get his chance to prove himself as a starter. Schroder started just six games last season for the Hawks during the regular season, but still averaged a career-high 11 points, 4.4 assists and 2.6 rebounds per game. Now that he’ll become the full-time starter, those numbers figure to climb even higher. The timing couldn’t be better for Schroder, as he’s set to become a restricted free agent next summer.
Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic
With Orlando parting ways with Scott Skiles and adding Frank Vogel, Gordon could have a big year. Vogel has talked about using Gordon more and putting him in situations to succeed in the open court.
His athletic ability and versatile skill set make him very intriguing. His outside shooting, fundamentals and decision-making must continue to improve, but he’s an incredible athlete who can make plays on both ends of the court. Last season, Gordon averaged 9.2 points and 6.5 rebounds in 23.9 minutes per game as a rookie. In his 37 games as a starter, those numbers increased to 11.1 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists.
It’ll be interesting to see what Gordon can do in his third season, especially since Orlando has added Serge Ibaka, Bismack Biyombo and Jeff Green to their front court. Still, at 20 years old and with so much talent, Gordon has to be mentioned when discussing potential breakout players.
Clint Capela, Houston Rockets
Capela is undeniably going to see more time on the floor with Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones no longer in Houston. Capela has progressed in many ways since entering the league in 2014.
Last season, the 22-year-old’s progression was on display as he averaged seven points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in just 19.1 minutes per game. This year, he has a chance to become a starter and take his game to the next level.
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